Moving Markets

Julius Baer

Moving Markets is the home of podcasts at Julius Baer. Here, our expert teams share concise daily market updates in ‘Moving Markets Daily’ which is complemented by ‘Moving Markets: The View Beyond’, a weekly show dedicated to discussing the context, thematic angles, and investment implications behind key topics shaping the news cycle and conversations among our relationship managers and clients.

The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

Subscribe Listen in podnod RSS feed Show website

1,057 episodes
Updated Yesterday

Episodes1057

Newest first

May 22 · 12 min
Markets steady despite weak data and geopolitical crosscurrents
Markets remained choppy as weak PMI data across Europe and the UK signalled slowing growth, while US data painted a mixed but still resilient picture. Oil prices were volatile amid shifting headlines around Iran, underlining ongoing geopolitical sensitivity. Equities in both Europe and the US ended modestly higher despite intraday swings, with pockets of strength in sectors like satellites and quantum computing following fresh investment momentum. Overnight, softer inflation in Japan supported Asian markets, while US yields edged lower and the dollar held firm. Today, we were joined by Bence Boldvai from our FX & Precious Metals team, who shared insights on key themes this week, including USD/JPY dynamics and his take on metals. Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 21 · 14 min
Stocks rally as oil prices and bond yields retreat on peace hopes and AI boost
European and US stock markets rallied yesterday after President Trump hinted that the US administration is in the final stages of an agreement to end the war with Iran. The 10-year US Treasury shaved 9 basis points off the previous session’s yield. Asian markets were further boosted overnight by an impressive set of results from NVIDIA. Warnings did come in from the Fed though, in the form of the minutes of its last meeting, which revealed a heightened level of disagreement about where rates should go next and a majority of participants highlighting that rates will need to rise if inflation runs persistently above 2%. Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, Norbert Rücker, joins today’s podcast to discuss not only the outlook for oil and energy prices, but also to explain why he is so constructive on the theme of Clean Energy. Tune in to find out more. (00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (00:49) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (08:11) - (Clean) energy update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (13:33) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 20 · 15 min
Bond sell-off rattles markets ahead of Nvidia earnings
US markets dipped amid rising long-term bond yields, with the 30-year Treasury hitting the highest level in almost two decades fuelled by inflation fears and potential Fed tightening. Geopolitical tensions and key upcoming catalysts, including Nvidia’s earnings and FOMC minutes, keep investors on edge. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains what is behind the recent surge in bond yields and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, discusses the implications for equity markets and outlines his key message for the second half of the year. (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:49) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:13) - Fixed income strategy update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (09:23) - Equity strategy outlook: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (14:14) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 19 · 11 min
Markets caught between peace hopes and rising tensions
Global equities are caught between hopes for a peace deal and rising Middle East tensions, with Brent fluctuating around USD 100 per barrel. In the US, strong market breadth contrasts with weakness in technology stocks, weighing on major equity indices. Japan and Switzerland posted stronger-than-expected Q1 growth, highlighting resilience despite geopolitical tensions and high oil prices. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses India’s decision to double import duties on gold and silver. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:07) - The impact of India's new gold tariffs: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:16) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 18 · 11 min
Yields surge, oil climbs: is a market reality check coming?
Global markets are kicking off the week on the back foot as government bond yields surge to multi-year highs, reigniting concerns about stagflation. Oil prices climbed another 2% overnight, with no quick resolution in sight for the ongoing Middle East tensions. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his outlook on whether US 10-year Treasury yields could reach the 5% mark. He also explains why the rally in semiconductor stocks may be due for a pause – and why that might actually be a good thing. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (01:01) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:08) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (10:59) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 16 · 28 min
The View Beyond: The AI story behind US equity highs
Despite geopolitical tensions, US equity markets have reached record highs, with artificial intelligence at the heart of this surge. What is driving these historic moves? How are investors positioning themselves to both capture the opportunities and manage the risks? In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, and Manuel Villegas, Co-Manager of the Julius Baer Next Generation Equity Fund. They explore the rapid development of AI, the unprecedented growth in data centre infrastructure, and the evolving dynamics of the global value chain. The discussion covers the shift from AI training to inference, the critical role of memory and hardware, bottlenecks in data centre buildout, and the implications of rising capital expenditure by hyperscalers. Their conversation also examines the international nature of the AI value chain, the impact of regulatory and supply constraints, and the outlook for investors as monetisation accelerates across the sector. (00:00) - Introduction (00:56) - AI's impact on the tech landscape (03:56) - Hardware vs. software (05:22) - Capturing the AI infrastructure super cycle (09:01) - Data centre bottlenecks and constraints (10:43) - Inflationary pressures (13:27) - The politics of data centre construction (14:52) - Hyperscaler earnings (18:16) - How AI investments are translating into tangible revenues (19:49) - Performance, positioning, and valuation (20:53) - Winners, sector rotation, and the importance of Asia's supply chain (23:16) - The global nature of the AI value chain (24:22) - Scenarios for cloud computing and AI (24:56) - View on sub sectors for remainder of 2026 (27:11) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 15 · 11 min
US–China progress lifts markets, but rate concerns temper tech optimism
Markets were driven by headlines from the Trump–Xi summit in Beijing, where progress on trade and a surprise easing of US chip export restrictions to major Chinese tech firms lifted sentiment, particularly in technology. European equities closed higher and US indices reached fresh record highs, supported by strong earnings from Cisco, although gains in Asia faded as rising Treasury yields and renewed rate hike expectations weighed on sentiment. Corporate news was mixed, while Crypto-related stocks rallied following regulatory progress. Commodities showed divergence, with oil edging higher and metals softer. Overnight, Asian equities declined broadly, led by a sharp sell-off in South Korea. In today’s show, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares insights on the British pound, precious metals, and ongoing volatility. (00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (06:41) - FX & Metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:57) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 13 · 17 min
Risk-off mood deepens as inflation and oil jolt markets
Markets showed a broad risk-off tone on Tuesday, with equities weaker and bond yields moving higher. Oil prices surged as hopes for a US–Iran deal faded, stoking inflation concerns after stronger-than-expected US inflation data. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains the implications for bond markets and shares his view on UK gilts amid ongoing political turmoil. And Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategist, explains why he likes the Communications sector and highlights areas of strength and weakness within European equities. (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:52) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:52) - Fixed income strategy update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (10:59) - Equity strategy rating changes: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research (15:59) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 12 · 11 min
US tech rally continues while Europe lags and oil climbs
European markets were weighed down by declines in the luxury sector yesterday, as concerns over weakening global demand dampened sentiment. In contrast, major US indices reached fresh record highs, led by strong gains in the technology sector. Meanwhile, oil prices are climbing again this morning amid signs that the Middle East ceasefire may be unravelling. Today, we are joined by Dr. Damien Ng from Next Generation Research, who will share his insights on the hantavirus outbreak and the role genomics and digital health tools are playing. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:21) - Genomics & digital health tools tackling the Hantavirus: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research (10:41) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 11 · 11 min
US equities up for six weeks in a row
Strong earnings and resilient jobs data are prompting markets to rule out rate cuts this year. Semiconductor stocks continue to lead gains across the US and Asia, with South Korea and Japan hitting new highs, supported by AI investment. Inflation pressures reflected in China’s data release, rising oil prices amid a fragile Middle East ceasefire, and broader geopolitical risks remain in focus ahead of a busy week of data and events, including inflation releases from the US, Germany and Japan, the Trump–Xi meeting, the King’s Speech in the UK, and Kevin Warsh taking over the leadership at the Fed. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, outlines the relative weakness in oil and oil and gas stocks, the growing vulnerability of the US dollar, and why a pullback in semiconductor stocks may be healthy. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:17) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (11:07) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 9 · 25 min
The View Beyond: Reading between China’s headline indices
Global equity markets have performed strongly, led by the AI-driven rally across the US, Japan, and Korea, while China’s headline indices have lagged in comparison. Yet beneath the surface, performance has been more nuanced, with parts of the market showing stronger momentum than index-level data suggests. In this episode, Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management. They discuss why China’s markets have underperformed on the surface, whether traditional benchmarks are capturing the right parts of the economy, and how the AI and semiconductor cycle is shaping market performance. They also explore US-China relations, the outlook for the renminbi, dynamics in the property market, and the impact of oil prices and geopolitics on broader market conditions. (00:28) - China versus global markets and the underperformance question (01:54) - Are investors looking at the wrong indices (05:25) - AI cycle dynamics and China’s role in the semiconductor rally (08:18) - US-China relations and the geopolitical backdrop (13:25) - Renminbi outlook and China’s global positioning (16:30) - Property market rebound or false dawn (20:00) - Impact of oil prices and market implications
May 8 · 11 min
Risk‑off mood returns as oil rebounds and uncertainty lingers
Markets remained on edge as ongoing uncertainty around a potential US–Iran agreement drove a clear risk‑off tone. European equities moved broadly lower, while US indices pulled back after briefly touching record highs, weighed down by weakness in technology and semiconductors. Oil prices proved volatile but ultimately rebounded, with both Brent and WTI holding elevated levels, while gold edged higher. In fixed income, US yields ticked up as investors reassessed inflation risks linked to energy markets. Central banks painted a mixed picture, with Norway surprising to the upside on rates, while Sweden held steady. In Asia, markets were mostly weaker, though South Korea’s strong outperformance continued. Today we were joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shared the latest insights on currencies and metals, discussing gold, the ongoing US dollar weakness, and the yen intervention. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:01) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:53) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 7 · 12 min
Hints of a deal send stocks soaring
Hopes grew yesterday that the US and Iran might be able to seal a deal to end the conflict, with a memorandum of understanding apparently having been sent by the US to Iran. The oil price dropped and with it so did bond yields. Meanwhile, global stock markets continued to rally and were given a further boost by artificial intelligence firms and yet more good news from earnings calls. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to explain why he believes that the Strait of Hormuz may lose its strategic importance in the future, as shifts in the oil market that have developed throughout this crisis might well prove to be lasting. Tune in to find out more. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (05:45) - Energy market update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (11:18) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 6 · 12 min
Semiconductors power markets to new all-time highs
Semiconductor stocks, from Intel to Samsung Electronics, are pushing US and Asian equities to new all‑time highs. Strong earnings from Anheuser‑Busch and Unicredit also lifted European markets. US services activity slowed in April, while inflation pressures stayed elevated. UK yields surged on inflation and fiscal concerns, Swiss data showed higher headline but subdued core inflation, and PMIs in China and India pointed to resilience. The JPY continues to strengthen after last week’s lows, likely reflecting FX intervention. Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research, notes while European earnings are rising, the momentum is weaker than in the US where all sectors are showing earnings growth. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:41) - Earnings season update: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research (11:37) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 5 · 11 min
‘Risk-off’ returns and big tech at a crossroads
After several days of solid gains, markets paused yesterday as risk aversion returned, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and a sharp rise in oil prices. European equities bore the brunt of the sell-off, while major US indices also closed lower. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, to unpack the outlook for hyperscalers following last week’s earnings, and what it means for the road ahead. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:33) - Hyperscaler capex and revenues: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:37) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 4 · 9 min
All-time highs and US naval escorts
Geopolitics continues to dominate as investors weigh mixed Middle East messages. Trump has signalled his openness to Iran talks while also warning of renewed conflict and saying the US will begin guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Global equities are rallying on AI optimism and strong tech earnings, even as central banks stay cautious amid uneven growth and sticky inflation. A pivotal week of earnings and data lies ahead. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses a potential topping process in oil and why technicals suggest the correction in US equities may be ending. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:07) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (08:46) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 2 · 16 min
The View Beyond: How can structured products help navigate current markets?
With geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility top of mind, investors are seeking tools to help navigate an increasingly complex landscape. How can structured products add value to portfolios in this environment? In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets: The View Beyond podcast, Helen Freer is joined by Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory, and Maximiliano Ranieri, Head of Structured Products Solutions Sales Geneva, to discuss the role of structured products in portfolios today. The conversation covers the current macroeconomic backdrop, the scenarios where structured products can complement traditional investments, and the four main categories of structured products. The discussion also addresses the significance of volatility with structured products, the key risks to consider, as well as which solutions are resonating in particular with investors right now. Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
April 30 · 18 min
Fed divided, AI earnings diverging, oil ever higher
The US Federal Reserve remains on hold but is the most divided since 1992. Kevin Warsh advanced in a key Senate vote to become the new chairman of the Fed next month. The ascent of the oil price continues amid reports of another military escalation. Major US technology firms reaffirmed heavy AI investment in their earnings releases, but results differed sharply across the companies reporting yesterday: Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation, talks about the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC amid tectonic shifts in the oil market and our outlook for oil as storage is declining. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, notes that geopolitics are not derailing the earnings season. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:18) - Oil/OPEC: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (12:05) - Q1 earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (17:14) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
April 29 · 10 min
Markets eye Big Tech earnings & final Powell rate call
Oil prices surged above USD 110 on supply concerns stemming from the stalled Iran war and news of an extended blockade of Iran. The rally was capped by historic news that the UAE will exit OPEC. In equities, AI-driven gains faltered amid questions about OpenAI’s growth prospects. With mega-cap technology firms Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft set to report earnings today, attention will also turn to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision at Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Chair, setting the stage for a pivotal rest of the week. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why he does not expect much from the Fed at this point and why tomorrow’s ECB meeting will be more interesting for markets. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:55) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (09:50) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
April 28 · 11 min
Cautious markets, rising oil and the next phase of AI
Markets started the week on a cautious note as geopolitics, central bank meetings and rising oil prices kept risk appetite in check. European equities slipped, while US indices hovered near record highs, supported by big tech, despite a pause in the semiconductor rally. AI remained firmly in focus after OpenAI signalled a shift in its relationship with Microsoft. Outside of tech, energy markets drew attention as Shell announced a major acquisition to boost long‑term production. Bond yields edged higher in the US, as investors positioned ahead of the Fed, while commodities stayed volatile and Asian markets were mixed following the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep rates unchanged. Today we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, for a discussion on AI, hyperscalers and the capex wave. (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (06:55) - AI, hyperscalers & the capex wave: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation (10:31) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.