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Moving Markets

Julius Baer

Moving Markets is the home of podcasts at Julius Baer. Here, our expert teams share concise daily market updates in ‘Moving Markets Daily’ which is complemented by ‘Moving Markets: The View Beyond’, a weekly show dedicated to discussing the context, thematic angles, and investment implications behind key topics shaping the news cycle and conversations among our relationship managers and clients.

The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

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October 8 · 13 min
Bond markets, the oil puzzle and electric vehicles
Markets are being driven by developments in bond markets on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, concerns over French public finances weigh on sentiment, while in the US, inflation worries and a well-received Treasury auction triggered sharp moves in yields. Other topics include the challenges facing European carmakers in China, the resilience of US equities, and SpaceX looking to tap the bond market. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses the apparent disconnect between the recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports and persistently high oil prices, as well as the positive momentum in the electric vehicle market. (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:08) - Energy markets/oil update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (12:10) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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October 7 · 14 min
S&P 500 at record high as earnings loom and French risks persist
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs in a broad-based rally, while lower bond yields and oil prices supported European equities. Overnight, renewed Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher and weighed on Asian markets. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, notes that French fiscal risks are justified, but markets already reflect a fairly pessimistic outlook. The key question is whether the situation in France spills over to other eurozone countries. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, highlights the high hurdle for next week's US earnings season. Key areas to watch include bank earnings, hyperscaler capital expenditure, and signs of AI-driven productivity gains extending beyond the technology sector. (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:20) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (09:41) - Q3 earnings season preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (13:37) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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October 6 · 13 min
Markets rally, France stumbles and the obesity revolution accelerates
Equity markets started the week on a strong note, with both European and US stock indices posting solid gains. France proved the notable exception, however, as French equities and government bonds came under pressure amid growing concerns about the government’s ability to rein in the budget deficit ahead of the 2027 elections. In today’s episode, we are joined by Dr Damien Ng from our Next Generation Research team, who shares his latest insights into the remarkable scientific advances and shifting landscape in the fight against obesity, one of the most significant healthcare themes of our time. (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:32) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (07:17) - Obesity drugs – Future Health: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research (12:22) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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October 5 · 12 min
Weak payrolls lift stocks, but yields stay elevated
Equity markets rallied on Friday after a surprisingly weak US jobs report fuelled hopes that the Federal Reserve may remain on hold for longer. However, enthusiasm was tempered by another rise in Treasury yields, with the US 10-year yield hovering near multi-decade highs. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, keeping investors focused on energy markets despite a coordinated release of emergency fuel reserves by G7 countries. In today's show, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his views on European equities, the euro, and what the current market environment means for investors. (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (01:36) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (08:35) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (11:51) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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October 3 · 17 min
The View Beyond: Higher yields, risk or opportunity?
With the US 10-year treasury yield recently crossing the 5% threshold and the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance, bond investors are facing heightened volatility and a rapidly shifting landscape. Are higher yields a warning sign of greater risk, or do they present new opportunities for portfolio construction? In this episode, Rishabh Saksena, Co-Head of Global Asset Class Specialists at Julius Baer, is joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research. Together, they dissect the drivers behind the recent surge in yields, the implications of monetary policy repricing, and the nuanced impact of a more hawkish Fed across the yield curve. The conversation covers duration preferences, the outlook for inflation and credit, the appeal of US investment-grade bonds, and the effects of increased bond issuance from sectors such as hyperscalers. This episode was recorded on September 28, 2026. (00:00) - Introduction (01:22) - What’s driving the move in yields? (02:42) - Investor concerns and opportunities in fixed income (03:45) - Why a hawkish Fed can support parts of the bond market (05:26) - Outlook for the Fed and interest rates into 2027 (06:23) - Duration preferences and the case for intermediate maturities (08:35) - Appetite for longer-dated bonds and portfolio construction trends (10:07) - Implications of a sustained 5%+ US treasury yield (11:48) - Inflation risks and expectations for 2027 (13:00) - Is corporate credit still attractive at current valuations? (14:24) - Impact of increased bond issuance from hyperscalers (15:48) - Key takeaways for fixed income investors (16:53) - Closing remarks (17:34) - Legal information Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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October 2 · 12 min
Yields surge, oil rallies, and all eyes turn to payrolls
Markets endured a turbulent start to the fourth quarter as a global bond sell-off pushed US Treasury yields to their highest level since 2002 and intensified concerns over French public finances. European equities came under pressure, while US stocks recovered late in the session. Oil prices surged on supply concerns and geopolitical tensions, adding to inflation worries ahead of today's closely watched US payrolls report. In today's show, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses the outlook for the US dollar, the euro and precious metals. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:03) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (11:32) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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October 1 · 12 min
Sticky inflation meets resilient markets
European inflation surprised to the upside, driven by energy prices, while softer US inflation data offered some reassurance for markets. However, the bond market stress continued with Treasury yields rising, weighing on equities in their final stretch of the quarter. Asian markets opened Q4 positively, led by technology shares after Micron's strong revenue outlook. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, shares his insights about Asia and what he expects from the region in the final innings of the year. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:24) - Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong (11:33) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 30 · 10 min
Fed's Williams tempers October hike fears
Whilst the 30-year US Treasury bond yield rose for a sixth consecutive session, traders were calmed somewhat by comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams yesterday. Markets are now pricing in a 49% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, down from 71% on Monday. This didn't help US indices though: they all declined on the day. Asia saw stocks recover and there was encouraging factory activity data out of China. Today sees the release of the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Our Head of Fixed Income Research, Dario Messi, joined the podcast to explain what is driving higher yields, where he believes investors can find the best value now, and why he believes that a quality bias in credit portfolios is still warranted. (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:20) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income (10:06) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 29 · 11 min
Yields up, AI accelerates, cities adapt
Rising oil prices and higher bond yields are keeping inflation concerns front and centre, pushing US Treasury yields to their highest level since 2007. The AI investment boom remains in focus, highlighted by NVIDIA's record buyback announcement and Anthropic's S-1 filing, a precursor to an eventual IPO. Policymakers continue to balance inflation and growth concerns, with Australia tightening policy further and China signalling fresh support for its slowing economy. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, talks about the need of large cities to adapt to climate change, creating a very appealing structural growth outlook for the infrastructure and buildings value chains. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:00) - Adapting to a warmer world: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:48) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content £Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 28 · 11 min
Oil rallies, bonds struggle and equities hold their ground
Global bond yields moved higher once again as oil prices rallied following President Trump’s rejection of Iran’s ceasefire proposal. Meanwhile, Chinese equities fell to their lowest level in a year amid fresh US restrictions on technology exports. In Europe, the financial sector remains firmly in focus as market speculation grows around a potential tie-up between UBS and another major bank. In today’s episode, we are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his latest views on market leadership, the strongest-performing sectors, and the outlook for precious metals. (00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (01:10) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (07:11) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (10:32) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 26 · 27 min
The View Beyond: Can Trump-Xi talks shift market sentiment?
US-China relations are back in the spotlight, with investors watching whether talks between Presidents Trump and Xi can deliver meaningful progress and shift market sentiment. The discussions come as Chinese markets contend with trade uncertainty, tentative policy support and a challenging domestic growth backdrop. In this episode, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, about the Trump-Xi talks, the outlook for Chinese equities and property, and sentiment towards Chinese AI stocks. They also discuss the longer-term AI investment story and the impact of rising oil prices and interest rates on global markets. (00:00) - Trump-Xi talks: Can they deliver for markets? (01:55) - US, Europe and China: A changing trade landscape (06:40) - What could drive a year-end rebound in Chinese equities? (11:17) - Property support: Technical rebound or real recovery? (16:00) - China AI stocks: Sentiment versus fundamentals (22:38) - Oil, rates and the global market outlook
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September 25 · 11 min
Dollar strength, gold’s next move and painfully high yields
Rising government bond yields remain at the centre of investors' attention as expectations for further rate hikes in the US and Europe continue to build. Combined with a renewed rally in oil prices, higher yields are weighing on risk appetite and limiting the upside for equity markets. In today's episode, Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Advisory in Geneva, joins us to share his views on the US dollar, precious metals, and the key market themes investors should be watching. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:21) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:35) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (10:57) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 24 · 12 min
US Treasury yields surge the most since last year’s tariff turmoil and what's next for gold?
US Treasury yields surge the most since last year's tariff turmoil and what's next for gold? Bond yields surged globally as stronger-than-expected economic data reinforced higher-for-longer rate expectations. US Treasury yields recorded their biggest jump since last year's tariff-related market turmoil, while Japan's 10-year yield rose above 3% for the first time since 1996. Brent oil moved back above USD 100 per barrel. The safe-haven USD was well bid, while European and US equities moved lower. Asian markets were mixed today, with Japan rising after a three-day holiday. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses precious metals - from Fed policy to China's gold buying, he talks about what is likely to drive the gold and silver markets, and what is just noise. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:04) - Gold and silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (11:47) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 23 · 15 min
AI rally powers Nasdaq to record high
The Nasdaq climbed to a fresh record as investors continued to back AI-related stocks, while oil prices fell on hopes of easing tensions between the US and Iran. In today's episode, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, share how last week's Fed rate hike has impacted their expectations for bond and equity markets, and discuss the key risks and opportunities investors are watching now. (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:07) - Bond markets after the FOMC: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income (09:18) - Equity markets after the FOMC: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (14:24) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 22 · 14 min
A new Muse inspires equity markets
Oil prices fell yesterday after President Trump said he would be open to meeting Iran’s leader this week. The accompanying enthusiasm carried over into both European and US bond and equity markets. And these were further boosted by positive headlines around Meta’s new AI Chatbot, Muse, boosting Meta’s share price by 11% in the session and powering a surge in the technology heavy hitters that helped the Nasdaq Composite close at a new record high. The upcoming summit between the US and China is now in focus. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins today’s podcast and talks, amongst other things, about the impact of Chinese electric vehicles outside their home market. Tune in to hear more of his thoughts on the importance of electrification and the outlook for Future Mobility. (00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:58) - Future mobility: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research (13:43) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 21 · 10 min
Oil prices fall ahead of a busy week
Technology and semiconductor stocks started the week on a positive note, while oil prices fell as traders anticipated a recovery in Saudi shipments, despite continued geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Meanwhile, political uncertainty in Germany, pressure on the Japanese yen, and optimism ahead of the planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, remain in focus. In today’s show, we discuss the latest developments across global markets and are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who examines the signals emerging from the US market, the state of investor sentiment and the technical outlook for information technology stocks (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:07) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:54) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 19 · 24 min
The View Beyond: Earnings growth beyond the Magnificent Seven
Equity markets in 2026 have delivered a volatile ride, with a strong rebound pushing most major indices into positive territory. But as investor focus narrows on AI and the so-called Magnificent Seven, where should attention shift for the remainder of the year—and what risks are hiding in plain sight? In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video, is joined by Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research at Julius Baer, for a deep dive into the drivers of equity market performance in 2026. They discuss regional and sector standouts, the breadth of earnings growth beyond mega cap technology stocks, and the implications of increasing market concentration. The conversation covers sector positioning—why financials, health care, and communications remain overweight—and explores the outlook for subsectors including retail banks, payment networks, pharma, biotech, MedTech, and telecom operators. Philipp also shares practical guidance on avoiding common equity investing mistakes as year-end approaches. (00:00) - Introduction (01:02) - Equity market performance in 2026 (02:47) - Sector winners and laggards year to date (04:10) - Key surprises from the latest earnings season (05:45) - The challenge of beating market expectations (06:05) - Concentration risk and the AI-driven rally (08:28) - Equity research process and sector ranking (10:44) - Overweight sectors: financials, health care, communications (12:31) - Financials: retail banks, payment networks, rating agencies (12:39) - Health care: pharma, biotech, MedTech (17:29) - Communications: internet platforms, telecom operators, AI infrastructure (20:49) - Year-end investing mistakes to avoid (23:17) - Closing remarks (23:43) - Legal information Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 18 · 18 min
Stocks jump as oil and yields retreat
Markets rebounded after three tough sessions, fuelled by a reassuring Federal Reserve, easing yields, and falling oil prices. Julius Baer Chief Economist David Kohl breaks down what the latest Fed decision means for the US economy and shares his expectations for the Bank of Japan following its overnight rate hike. Meanwhile, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, explores the implications for the US dollar and explains why gold continues to shine. (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:52) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:52) - Fed and BOJ: David Kohl, Chief Economist (13:43) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (17:55) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 17 · 14 min
Markets react to a hawkish Fed whilst digesting the latest energy price moves
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike in three years. The accompanying projections and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signalled a hawkish tilt. Markets responded by raising expectations for another rate hike by year-end, lifting the USD and short-term Treasury yields, while gold held up well. Equities weakened overall, although losses were relatively modest outside the Dow Jones. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses high oil, but even higher, diesel prices and why political interference is unlikely to derail the energy transition. Fixed income strategist, Afonso Borges, notes that bond markets have taken the Fed's communication mostly positively. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:47) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (05:40) - Energy markets update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (10:35) - Fixed income update: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research (13:43) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 16 · 13 min
Bond yields surge ahead of Fed decision
Rising oil prices and higher inflation concerns dominated markets as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated rate decision. Treasury yields climbed to multi-decade highs, with the US 10-year yield breaching 5%, while government bond yields moved sharply higher across Europe and Asia. Equity markets struggled under the weight of rising rates, although energy stocks outperformed as oil prices rallied on supply disruption fears. In today's show, we discuss the key market drivers ahead of the Fed meeting and are joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who explains the latest changes to Swiss equity indices and examines what the recent rise in bond yields could mean for equity investors. (00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:59) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (12:23) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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