Moving Markets

Julius Baer

Moving Markets is the home of podcasts at Julius Baer. Here, our expert teams share concise daily market updates in ‘Moving Markets Daily’ which is complemented by ‘Moving Markets: The View Beyond’, a weekly show dedicated to discussing the context, thematic angles, and investment implications behind key topics shaping the news cycle and conversations among our relationship managers and clients.

The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

Subscribe Listen in podnod RSS feed Show website

20 episodes
Updated Saturday

Episodes20

Newest first

Saturday · 18 min
The View Beyond: Reading rates without a map as the Fed, BoE and BoJ hold
In just one week, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all chose to hold interest rates steady, yet none of the decisions were unanimous, and of course, the Fed's new Chair is now steering away from forward guidance altogether. With investors left to navigate rates without the usual signposts, what should they make of this week's decisions, and what comes next? In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko sits down with David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, to unpack the week's central bank decisions. They discuss why the Fed held rates despite markets anticipating a hike, the bond market volatility and dollar weakness that followed Kevin Warsh's press conference, and the outlook for Fed policy into year end. The conversation also covers the Bank of England's split vote and UK rate expectations amid a new political backdrop, as well as examining the Bank of Japan's decision to hold rates while signalling a more hawkish shift alongside yen intervention. Finally, David also offers his insights into why he believes that the ECB will not hike rates at their September meeting. (00:00) - Introduction (01:04) - The Fed's decision not to hike rates (03:00) - Bond market reaction and Kevin Warsh's communication style (05:34) - Outlook for Fed rate expectations (07:46) - The Bank of England's split decision (09:18) - UK rate expectations amid political change (11:21) - The Bank of Japan holds rates and hints at hikes (15:15) - Expectations for the ECB (17:24) - Closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Friday · 11 min
Ending the week on a high?
US stocks staged a rally yesterday following Wednesday’s post-Fed sell-off. Microsoft and semiconductors definitely helped to drive the gains. And the pattern continued in Asia this morning with South Korea’s Kospi up 18% in its session. Central banks in the UK and Japan cemented a week of no moves – although their messaging about the future path of rates diverged. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins today’s podcast to share why he thinks interventions in currency markets are a waste of money and time and he also provides some useful insights into this week’s dollar and yen moves. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:36) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:30) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Thursday · 13 min
A split Fed, a steeper yield curve and Microsoft delivering
Markets reacted sharply after a divided US Federal Reserve opted to leave interest rates unchanged yesterday. The decision triggered a notable steepening of the Treasury yield curve, with 2-year yields edging lower while 30-year yields moved materially higher. US equities also came under pressure, with major stock indices posting significant declines. However, sentiment improved after the closing bell when despite Meta disappointing investors with weaker profit results, Microsoft reported stronger-than-expected earnings. In today's episode, Afonso Borges from our Fixed Income Research team unpacks the Fed's latest decision, explains the market reaction, and discusses what it could mean for investors in the months ahead. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:45) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:29) - Analysis of FOMC meeting: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research (12:24) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Wednesday · 16 min
AI jitters, Big Tech earnings & the Fed decision
A sharp market rotation took centre stage on Tuesday as investors moved out of chipmakers and into healthcare and financial stocks, pushing both sectors to fresh record highs. Even blockbuster results from AI memory leader SK Hynix failed to ease concerns, extending the sell-off in semiconductor stocks ahead of a crucial week for Big Tech earnings. With the Federal Reserve set to announce its latest interest rate decision today, markets are bracing for the next major catalyst. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his expectations for the Fed’s decision and what it could mean for investors. We also speak with Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, for the latest insights into the Q2 earnings season. (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (07:20) - Fed preview: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income (11:07) - Q2 earnings season: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (16:04) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
July 27 · 11 min
Oil retreats as markets face a critical week ahead
Markets are starting the week on a firmer footing as a pause in Middle East hostilities pushes oil prices lower and eases inflation concerns. The move follows a cautious week for investors, with concerns about AI spending, rising bond yields and escalating geopolitical tensions weighing on sentiment. Most major US equity indices ended the week lower, while European equities proved relatively resilient and both Japanese and Chinese markets posted gains. Attention now turns to a pivotal week featuring the Federal Reserve's policy decision, key US economic releases, and earnings releases from Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon. Joining us today is Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his views on market concentration in US equities, the importance of diversification and the recent pullback in momentum stocks. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:15) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (10:33) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
July 25 · 12 min
The View Beyond: Implications of a warmer world
As Europe faces increasingly frequent and severe heatwaves, the implications extend far beyond discomfort. The rising temperatures are creating urgent challenges with regard to public health, economic resilience, and urban infrastructure. What does a warmer world mean for the way we live, work, and invest? In this episode, Helen Freer is joined by Dr. Damien Ng, an analyst in Julius Baer’s Next Generation research team, to discuss how higher global temperatures are reshaping the risk landscape for populations and investors alike. The conversation explores how heatwaves are becoming a major public health concern, the mounting pressure on healthcare systems, and the economic impact of extreme heat. Dr. Ng also explains the concept of urban heat islands, and how innovations like sponge cities can help build resilience. (00:00) - Introduction (00:57) - Why heatwaves are a growing public health concern (02:24) - Understanding the concept of excess deaths during heatwaves (04:11) - The role of human-induced climate change (05:29) - Implications for healthcare systems in Europe (06:39) - The economic impact of heatwaves and other climate-related disasters (07:41) - The heat island effect in cities (08:46) - How sponge cities can build resilience (09:47) - Investments needed to handle a hotter climate (11:04) - The link between climate resilience and longevity (11:20) - Key takeaways (11:54) - Closing remarks (12:28) - Legal information Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
July 24 · 12 min
Markets on edge: rising oil, higher yields and the AI spending debate
Global equities traded lower as oil prices surged in response to escalating tensions in the Middle East, while renewed concerns over AI-related capital expenditure weighed on investor sentiment. Although the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, expectations of further policy tightening later this year have strengthened, pushing bond yields higher across major markets. In today's episode, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, shares his insights on the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals markets, and what they could mean for investors. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:30) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX / Portfolio Management, Private Banking Geneva (11:44) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
July 23 · 11 min
Oil prices rise on escalating geopolitical tensions
Oil prices continue to surge as tensions between the US and Iran raise concerns about global energy supplies and economic growth. There were knock-on effects in bond markets with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to a two-month high. Alphabet and Tesla were the first of the Magnificent 7 stocks to report earnings after the bell yesterday – both stocks fell in extended trading. At the European Central Bank meeting later today interest rates are expected to be held steady. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, joins the show to provide an update on the Q2 earnings season so far and explains why the investment case for US banks remains. (00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (07:26) - Earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (10:53) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
July 22 · 12 min
Geopolitics lifts oil, tariffs return, and markets look to earnings
Markets faced a fresh wave of geopolitical risk as the conflict involving the US, Iran and the Houthis escalated, pushing oil prices higher. Yet equities remained resilient, with positive corporate earnings and strength in semiconductors helping offset investor concerns. Elsewhere, the US announced a 50% tariff on a broad range of Canadian imports, Japan's yen weakened beyond 163 against the dollar despite intervention warnings, and competition intensified in the obesity drug market as Novo Nordisk sued Eli Lilly. Investors now await results from Alphabet and Tesla while continuing to monitor developments in the Middle East. We are also joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, to discuss what to expect from tomorrow's ECB meeting and whether higher oil prices could prompt the ECB to adopt a more hawkish stance. (00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:56) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income (11:07) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
July 21 · 14 min
Burnham's debut, bond market jitters and the future of AI in BioPharma
Burnham's debut, bond market jitters and the future of AI in BioPharma Markets were relatively quiet yesterday, but developments in the UK drew investor attention. Prime Minister Andy Burnham's policy announcements sparked concerns over the fiscal outlook, sending gilt yields higher, while John Healey's appointment as Chancellor raised fresh questions about economic policy. Meanwhile, semiconductor stocks rebounded, and oil prices swung sharply. Damien Ng from our Next Generation Research team joins us to discuss why AI's impact on BioPharma is likely to unfold over the coming years, rather than quarters. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (07:08) - Genomics: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research (13:21) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
July 20 · 9 min
Chip stocks enter bear market: healthy consolidation or change in trend?
Semiconductor stocks have plunged more than 20% from their recent highs, officially entering bear market territory after China’s Moonshot launched its Kimi K3 model sparking fears of intensifying global competition. Amid rising concerns over stretched valuations, geopolitical risks, and a critical earnings week ahead – including reports from Alphabet, SK Hynix, and Tesla – markets stand at a crossroads. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why the long-term uptrend of semiconductors remains intact despite the sell-off and what this means for broader equity markets. (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:38) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:13) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
July 18 · 18 min
The View Beyond: China after the AI correction
After a sharp correction in AI-related stocks across Asia, investors are reassessing one of the market's strongest themes of the past year. In China, many AI and semiconductor-related names have fallen significantly from their recent highs, prompting debate over whether the pullback is creating a buying opportunity or signalling a more prolonged period of volatility. In this episode, Richard Tang speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, about the outlook for China's equity market following the recent AI sell-off. They discuss whether the correction has further to run, the prospects for a rotation into internet and other old economy names, and what recent economic data means for expectations around policy support in the second half of the year. The conversation also explores the implications of a more hawkish US Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh, and what this could mean for inflation expectations, interest rates and global asset prices. They also discuss the outlook for the renminbi amid strong export growth and China's expanding trade surplus. This episode was originally recorded on 15 July 2026. (00:29) - China's AI correction: buy the dip or wait? (03:05) - Are AI fundamentals still intact? What’s the near-term outlook? (04:48) - China's IPO activity, liquidity conditions and market rotation (06:05) - Can China's internet and old economy names catch up? (07:48) - China's policy outlook after the latest economic data (11:14) - The Fed under Kevin Warsh and the outlook for rates (14:18) - China's exports and the long-term case for RMB appreciation
July 17 · 11 min
Markets under pressure: gold, sterling and the search for safety
Equity markets weakened as continued losses in semiconductor stocks and ongoing tensions in the Middle East weighed on risk sentiment, pushing major indices firmly into negative territory. At the same time, recent economic data highlighted the resilience of the US economy, adding another layer of complexity to the market outlook. Meanwhile, Netflix shares came under pressure in after-hours trading after the company forecast slower revenue growth. In today’s episode, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins us to discuss the latest moves in gold and the British pound, what's driving these markets, and the key levels investors should keep on their radar. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:17) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:55) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
July 16 · 14 min
Earnings strength versus AI volatility and commodity jitters
The current earnings season is seeing some bright spots, such as the Swiss luxury retailer Richemont and the US asset manager BlackRock. US producer prices came in below expectations, continuing to ease inflation concerns. In Asia, a rotation continues from this year's winners, Japan and South Korea, towards laggards such as Hong Kong, while South Korean regulators announced plans to address volatility linked to leveraged ETFs tied to SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. The US dollar stabilised after recent weakness and sterling rose to a one-year high. Meanwhile, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses why oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz despite renewed regional tensions, why European natural gas prices remain elevated, and why gold has been largely unmoved by softer inflation data. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:00) - Commodities update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (13:18) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
July 15 · 15 min
Cooler US inflation data boosts markets
Yesterday’s release of June CPI inflation data in the US provided a welcome boost to US equity and Treasury prices, as traders drastically lowered their bets on a Fed rate hike in July. The mood was further bolstered by Q2 earnings from Wall Street’s big five banks. The buoyant mood continued in Asia this morning, especially in tech, with the Kospi rallying over 7% at one point. We had two guest speakers on today’s podcast. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research highlights his key takeaway from the inflation report and outlines his expectations for Fed policy going forwards. And our equity strategist, Nenad Dinic, assesses those US bank earnings and provides some insights into what the early European earnings reports are revealing. Tune in to find out more! (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:50) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (10:11) - Equity markets update: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research (14:50) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
July 14 · 12 min
Oil jumps, yields rise and US banks kick off earnings
Oil prices surged after fresh tensions in the Middle East raised concerns over global energy supplies, while higher inflation expectations pushed Treasury yields higher and weighed on equity markets, where semiconductor stocks led the declines. Investors are now turning their attention to the start of the US earnings season, with major banks reporting results today. Elsewhere, China’s trade data surprised to the upside, Singapore’s economy grew faster than expected, and the UK and Switzerland announced a new trade deal. On today’s show, we are joined by Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research, to discuss quantum computing and discover whether or not it has reached its ChatGPT moment. Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
July 13 · 11 min
US-Iran escalation shakes markets ahead of earnings
Markets are feeling the pressure this Monday morning as rising US-Iran tensions fuel higher oil prices, bond yields and the dollar, while equities drift lower. But with earnings season now taking centre stage, investors are asking a bigger question: can AI leaders and chipmakers justify their stellar gains from the first half of the year? Also in this episode: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he believes market leadership is unlikely to change despite recent volatility, and why he has upgraded Financials. (00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (00:52) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (08:00) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research (10:22) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
July 11 · 23 min
The View Beyond: What does the political reset in the UK mean for sterling and UK bonds?
With the UK preparing for a new phase of political leadership under the Labour Party's Andy Burnham, investors are watching closely for signals that could impact sterling and UK bonds. Despite headline changes at the top, market volatility has remained subdued. What’s behind the calm, and what should investors expect next? In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by David Meier, Chief Currency Strategist, and Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research Analyst, to examine the implications of the UK’s political reset for currency and fixed income markets. The discussion covers why sterling has remained resilient despite leadership changes, the lessons learned from past fiscal policy missteps, and the structural factors shaping the UK’s economic outlook. The conversation also explores the drivers of UK gilt yields, the impact of oil prices and inflation expectations, and the outlook for Bank of England policy. Finally, the team discusses positioning in UK bonds, the relative appeal of UK assets, and the case for hedging FX risk. (00:00) - Introduction (01:17) - Why has sterling remained calm amid political change? (03:19) - Lessons from past fiscal episodes and the risk of a repeat (04:20) - The new prime minister’s room for manoeuvre (06:19) - Structural constraints and economic outlook for the UK (07:25) - Oil prices, inflation pass-through, and UK gilt yields (10:14) - Positioning on the UK yield curve (10:56) - Bank of England policy outlook (13:22) - Implications for sterling versus major currencies (16:35) - Key factors for UK bond investors (20:30) - FX hedging and international investor considerations (21:32) - UK equities in the current environment (23:01) - Closing remarks and legal information Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
July 10 · 10 min
Peace talk hopes boost global stocks
As peace talks could be back on the table in the Middle East, global equity markets breathed a sigh of relief and investors snapped up tech stocks around the world. The Kospi retreated from bear market territory rallying more than 5%. And Japanese bonds, equities and the currency were boosted by comments from the country’s finance minister that the government wants to encourage its pension funds to invest more in domestic assets. Despite geopolitical risks having returned as a key driver of bond-market performance, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why investors should avoid this temporary market noise, and if necessary, take advantage of higher yield levels – especially in Europe – to ensure appropriate duration exposure within their portfolios. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (05:18) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (09:40) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
July 9 · 11 min
Oil shock or short detour? Markets react to Middle East tensions
Market sentiment has weakened as renewed tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices and government bond yields higher. Spain’s benchmark equity index has come under additional pressure following President Trump’s threat to impose trade restrictions on the country. In this episode, Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, joins us to discuss the latest surge in oil prices, the broader implications for inflation and whether the move reflects a lasting shift in the outlook or merely a temporary disruption. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (05:43) - Oil rallies on Trump declaration: Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research (10:44) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.