Moving Markets

Julius Baer

Moving Markets is the home of podcasts at Julius Baer. Here, our expert teams share concise daily market updates in ‘Moving Markets Daily’ which is complemented by ‘Moving Markets: The View Beyond’, a weekly show dedicated to discussing the context, thematic angles, and investment implications behind key topics shaping the news cycle and conversations among our relationship managers and clients.

The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

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1,057 episodes
Updated Yesterday

Episodes1057

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March 31 · 13 min
Markets torn between growth and inflation; an AI-dawn in healthcare?
Despite strong German inflation, global bond yields fell as markets shifted from inflation concerns to weakening growth signals. Soft Swiss KOF and Eurozone confidence data reinforced this move, pushing investors into bonds. Fed chair Jerome Powell said the central bank has limited influence over supply‑driven price spikes, reducing expectations of imminent US rate increases. In equities, Europe held up, while US markets weakened as sentiment stayed fragile, oil prices stayed high, and volatility persisted after a month of war. Gold is recovering, up nearly 10% from last week’s low. Overall, traders point to cleaner positioning, weak sentiment after a sharp global equity drop and a bond‑yield spike this month, and quarter‑end flows as key drivers of market moves at the end of the month. Damien Ng from Next Generation Research highlights a promising outlook for healthcare, driven by better diagnostics and AI‑enabled drug discovery. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:24) - Future Health: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research (12:55) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 30 · 10 min
US-Iran war escalates further
Risk-off sentiment dominated the end of last week, with the S&P 500 posting its fifth consecutive weekly decline. Markets remained broadly cautious amid scepticism about any near-term geopolitical de-escalation after several days of headline-driven volatility. Concerns over a prolonged conflict and the risk of spillover effects on inflation and demand as a result of higher oil prices continued to weigh on sentiment. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, highlights why lower oil prices are critical for equity markets and what it implies now that the S&P 500 has fallen below its 200-day moving average. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (01:00) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:17) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:57) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 28 · 16 min
The View Beyond: Energy markets and the economic outlook amid the ongoing war in the Middle East
As the war in the Middle East continues, energy markets are still at the centre of investors’ attention. How resilient are global oil and gas flows, and what are the possible scenarios as the situation evolves? In this episode Helen Freer is joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, to discuss the latest developments in the Middle East and their implications for energy markets and investors. The conversation covers the current level of oil supply disruptions, the effectiveness of alternative trade routes, the role of storage buffers, and the potential for lasting structural changes in global energy markets. Norbert outlines the key scenarios for the months ahead, the economic risks at play, and what investors should keep in mind as uncertainty persists. (00:00) - Introduction (00:49) - Crisis dynamics and early surprises (02:01) - The Strait of Hormuz situation (03:03) - How oil is moving around the disruption (04:00) - The role and limits of oil in storage (05:21) - Energy infrastructure (06:41) - Economic implications (07:58) - Could the conflict drive lasting structural changes in energy markets? (09:36) - Central banks’ policy response (10:54) - Scenario analysis (14:55) - Key takeaways for investors (15:45) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 27 · 10 min
An anything-but-oil day and navigating fixed income markets
Markets saw another sharp risk‑off move yesterday as fears of escalation in the Iran war pushed investors out of everything except oil. Inflation worries strengthened after the OECD raised its US forecast, while growth concerns deepened in Europe, where data points to a weak start to 2026. Corporate news added pressure, with technology stocks hit by Meta’s legal setbacks and renewed doubts about memory‑chip demand. Asian markets steadied after the US extended its deadline for potential strikes on Iran’s power plant infrastructure, though geopolitical risks remain high. Key releases today include Spain’s inflation data, BYD’s earnings, and US consumer sentiment figures. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses the recent sharp moves in bond yields and what it means for investors amid an uncertain war trajectory. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (05:54) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (09:18) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 26 · 10 min
Global rally cools, social‑media firms lose key case
Global equities rose on Wednesday as hopes of a path to peace in the Middle East and lower oil prices lifted sentiment. The MSCI World Index gained nearly 1%, its best performance since 9 February, and bond yields eased sharply. Beneath the positive market tone, economic surveys from Switzerland and Germany pointed to weakening confidence. Company news was mixed: Arm Holdings rallied on progress in AI hardware, while Meta and YouTube lost a landmark social‑media addiction case. In Asia, sentiment reversed as oil rebounded and memory stocks weakened after Google flagged an LLM compression method that could cut memory use. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that aluminium prices have fallen back after an initial spike following the outbreak of the Iran war, despite the region’s central role in the market. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:45) - Aluminium: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:05) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 25 · 11 min
Stocks gain, oil falls on Trump’s 15-point plan
Markets continue to gyrate around the latest headlines on the Middle East conflict. Early weakness yesterday – driven by doubts over the status of any US–Iran negotiations – gave way to renewed optimism overnight and into Asian trading this morning, as the US outlined a 15‑point plan aimed at ending the conflict. Gold stabilised, while global PMIs added to inflation concerns and highlighted weakening economic momentum. In this context, Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses the drivers behind the recent market behaviour, why investors should remain patient, and why Swiss equities continue to serve as an effective crisis hedge. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:40) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (10:17) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 24 · 10 min
From turmoil to turnaround – markets shift on de-escalation hopes
Global equities staged a sharp rebound yesterday after reports of a potential de‑escalation in the Middle East conflict. Brent crude saw one of its biggest intraday swings on record, and short‑dated US Treasury yields dropped sharply. Asian markets also retraced some of their steep losses from the previous session. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares why he remains constructive on the Buildings & Infrastructure theme in Germany. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:02) - Germany’s infrastructure spending: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (09:48) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 23 · 15 min
Central banks keeping calm and carrying on as Gulf tensions escalate
Equity markets in Asia have followed their US peers lower this morning after President’s Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was issued on Saturday evening. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have responded that the Strait will remain closed until their power plants are rebuilt. They also warned that if Washington carries out its threat to obliterate their power plants, they will target energy anddesalination facilities in the Gulf. US Treasury bonds continue to see their prices fall, gold and silver are lower, and oil is trading on every headline. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, joins today’s podcast to wrap up last week’s key central bank decisions and provide his assessment of how they are tackling the increasing threat of inflation. Meanwhile, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his insights into the correction in equity markets, and also where he sees risk appetite remaining intact. Tune in for the details! (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (05:37) - Central bank meetings: David Kohl, Chief Economist (11:36) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (14:21) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 21 · 12 min
The View Beyond: Central Banks’ response to the Energy Crisis
With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving a new wave of uncertainty, investors are watching central bank decisions and accompanying statements very closely. How are policymakers responding, and what does this mean for fixed income positioning? In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Dario Messi, Julius Baer’s Head of Fixed Income Research, to discuss the week’s mammoth round of central bank meetings. The conversation explores how recent geopolitical developments are shaping inflation expectations, and the challenges that these pose for central banks. Dario shares his perspective on why a hawkish tone from policy makers is justified but may not necessarily translate into actual policy tightening. He also offers his insights for fixed income investors navigating the current environment. (00:00) - Introduction (01:13) - Takeaways from the Fed’s decision (02:42) - Swiss National Bank and European Central Bank (03:57) - Has the rate-cut narrative been derailed? (06:40) - Will sounding hawkish translate into being hawkish? (08:06) - Implications for bond markets and yield curves (09:33) - Fixed income scenarios (11:05) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 20 · 11 min
Choppy trading persists as rate jitters and Middle East risks collide
Equity markets turned choppy heading into the weekend, while oil prices cooled as investors weighed efforts by the US and Israel to ease concerns over the Iran war. Anxieties over hawkish central bank policies and upward pressure on rates also weighed on sentiment. However, the market continues to be very sensitive to any signs of potential de-escalation. Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, talks about gold and the impact of the oil price on currency markets and the US dollar in particular. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:50) - FX & metals update: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions (10:49) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 19 · 15 min
Oil spike rekindles inflation fears, putting markets on edge
Equity markets are sliding and bond yields are climbing as oil and gas prices surge amid a new wave of escalation in the Middle East. At the same time, central bankers are holding their breath as inflation expectations edge higher. In today’s episode, we welcome Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who share their latest insights on the future trajectory of energy and precious metals prices. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:46) - Energy markets: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (11:29) - Precious Metals: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (14:57) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 18 · 15 min
Markets hold steady despite Middle East tensions
Global markets held up yesterday despite rising oil prices and escalating tensions in Iran, with European and US equities closing higher. Asian markets rallied strongly overnight, led by South Korea and Japan. More broadly though, investors remain cautious as sentiment cools in Europe and central banks prepare for key policy decisions. Today we’re joined by Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research Analyst, to discuss this week’s monetary policy decisions, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who brings us the latest on Swiss equities. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:36) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:12) - Bond market update: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research (10:39) - Equity market update - Switzerland: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (14:41) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 17 · 13 min
Oil jitters, NVIDIA’s big product presentation, Trump hits pause on China trip
Markets rebounded on Monday as declining oil prices during the day briefly eased inflation concerns, supported by IEA oil supply assurances and US comments on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. European and US equities advanced, led by artificial‑intelligence names, with Nvidia in focus after its major product event. Australia’s central bank raised rates by 25 basis points. In Asia, markets flattened as oil prices climbed again amid Middle East tensions, and President Trump postponed his trip to China because of the Iran war, driving European equity futures into the red prior to open. Damien Ng from Next Generation Research discusses renewed investor and large‑cap pharma interest in biotechnology, with a focus on Genomics. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:44) - Emerging investment opportunities in gene testing and immunotherapy: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research (13:07) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 16 · 10 min
Markets attempting a positive start to the week
US markets closed lower on the day, and the week, on Friday but the S&P 500 is still only 5% off its all-time high. The US military struck Iran’s Kharg Island on Friday but as yet they have not targeted the oil infrastructure. President Trump is now calling for a coalition of countries to send ships to help escort cargo through the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices a little lower again. China and Hong Kong’s equities have rallied this morning as have South Korea’s, and futures point to a positive start to a central bank ‘super week’. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why 200-day moving averages are a key factor to watch in attempting to determine where markets might go from here, but at the same time it is important to focus on market breadth. Tune in to hear more. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:42) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (05:28) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:18) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 14 · 26 min
The View Beyond: The impact of the Iran war on Asia markets
As the conflict in Iran continues to drive oil prices higher and unsettle global markets, investors are assessing the implications for Asia and China. Meanwhile in Beijing, the annual Two Sessions meetings have just concluded, outlining policy priorities and economic targets for the year ahead. In this episode of Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management. They discuss how geopolitical tensions are affecting Asian markets, their key takeaways from the Two Sessions, the outlook for Hong Kong versus A-shares, and the case for renminbi appreciation. Looking further ahead, they also examine the lessons from Japan’s balance sheet recession framework for China. (00:00) - Can Asia and China markets weather the storm? (03:14) - Hong Kong markets vs A-shares (07:40) - Key takeaways from Two Sessions (11:19) - Is the RMB appreciation trend set to continue? (16:08) - Lessons from Japan's balance sheet recession framework for China
March 13 · 11 min
Geopolitics‑driven volatility deepens across global markets
Global markets endured another turbulent session as escalating tensions in the Middle East, including aggressive rhetoric from both Iran and the United States, drove oil prices higher and fuelled risk aversion. European and US equities extended their declines, with energy stocks bucking the trend. Strong US macro data contrasted with the geopolitical gloom, but new US trade investigations under Section 301 added to uncertainty. Private credit concerns also intensified, weighing heavily on major alternative asset managers. Asian markets traded lower overnight, gold slipped despite its safe‑haven appeal, and investors now turn their attention to a packed economic data agenda. Joining our show today is Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, for the latest on currencies and metals. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (06:28) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:41) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 12 · 11 min
Oil tops USD 100, lifting yields and shaking markets
Tuesday’s rally in European stocks proved short‑lived as surging oil prices and renewed concerns over potential rate hikes unsettled investors. In contrast, US markets were more composed yesterday, with the tech‑heavy Nasdaq even managing to post a modest gain. Asian markets are trading lower today after Brent crude climbed above USD 100 a barrel amid fresh geopolitical escalations. In today’s episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his insights on aluminium and the potential disruption shaping the outlook for the market. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:50) - Aluminium update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:32) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 11 · 16 min
Equity markets rebound as oil tumbles
Markets reacted to volatile geopolitics as hopes of a swift resolution in the Iran crisis clashed with heightened military tensions. Strong gains in European equities and a sharp drop in oil prices highlighted a session defined by fragile optimism. With central banks watching inflation and safe havens like gold and the Swiss franc holding firm, uncertainty remains. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research at Julius Baer, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Julius Baer’s Equity Strategy Research team, discuss how recent geopolitical developments are shaping global bond and equity markets and how investors can navigate markets amid the fog of war. (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:06) - Fixed income market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (10:25) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (15:36) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 10 · 11 min
Oil whiplash, Wall Street rebound, China’s export strength
Brent oil saw historic intraday swings yesterday, surging on supply fears before dropping sharply as the G7 discussed releasing reserves and the US president signalled the war could soon end. This shift helped European markets rebound from their lows and lifted US equities as safe‑haven flows unwound. Asian markets followed Wall Street higher, supported by strong corporate results and robust Chinese export data. Japan’s Q4 GDP beat expectations, although household spending weakened. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, shares his timely view on the oil price spike and what likely comes next. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:27) - Latest developments in oil: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (10:46) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
March 9 · 16 min
Oil surges after Iran names new supreme leader
This morning, Iran named Mojtaba Khamanei, the man President Trump said would be unacceptable in the post, as its new leader. The immediate market reaction was a spike in the price of Brent crude oil to nearly USD120 per barrel, and a pronounced selloff in Asian stock markets. These moves have since reversed somewhat after the Financial Times wrote that G7 leaders will have talks with the International Energy Agency today regarding a possible release of energy reserves. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong explains why positioning is driving Asian equity markets more than fundamentals right now, and looks beyond the fog of war to identify attractive Asian equity sectors. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis focuses on what the charts reveal when it comes to the price of oil and the trajectory of US equity markets. (00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (01:18) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:17) - Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong (11:27) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (15:13) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.