Moving Markets

Julius Baer

Moving Markets is the home of podcasts at Julius Baer. Here, our expert teams share concise daily market updates in ‘Moving Markets Daily’ which is complemented by ‘Moving Markets: The View Beyond’, a weekly show dedicated to discussing the context, thematic angles, and investment implications behind key topics shaping the news cycle and conversations among our relationship managers and clients.

The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

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1,058 episodes
Updated Yesterday

Episodes1058

Newest first

Jun 5, 2025 · 15 min
Global equities back at an all-time high
The MSCI All-Country World Index is back at a new all-time high. The German government announcement of a EUR 46 billion tax relief package boosted European investor confidence, propelling the German DAX to a new high. US private-sector labour market data revealed weak job growth, triggering a sharp decline in US Treasury yields. In Asian markets, China's services sector showed signs of growth, while Japan's economy was affected by declining inflation-adjusted earnings for the fourth consecutive month. Today, attention turns to the European Central Bank. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, talks about the tectonic shifts in the oil and gas markets and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, discusses what the US equity market recovery and the USD weakness mean for investors. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:30) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (05:39) - Oil update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (10:14) - Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis (14:28) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 4, 2025 · 16 min
Markets up on inflation, jobs and sentiment – Meta’s deal energises the chip sector
The S&P500 index now is at the brink of entering technical bull market territory, up nearly 20% since its lows after ‘Liberation Day’. Yesterday, equity markets rose, fuelled by a surprise fall of inflation in Europe, good labour market data in the US, a perceived easing of trade tensions and some AI chips-excitement following Meta’s energy deal. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins us to share his views on where yields go and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, speaks about the point at which yield levels start to trouble equity markets. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (06:34) - Bond Market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (11:18) - Equity strategy update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (15:33) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 3, 2025 · 12 min
It’s all about commodities, for a change
With Trump imposing new import tariffs on steel and aluminium, prices of the two metals on the US physical market have soared, lifting shares of domestic steelmakers. However, there is still a glimmer of hope on the trade front, with reports emerging that Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are set to hold talks ‘very soon’. Meanwhile, stock markets around the world have seen some volatility as investors digest the latest manufacturing activity data. Treasury yields, which have been in the spotlight recently, remained stable overnight after strong demand was seen at a 10-year Japanese government bond auction. Joining us on the show today is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who gives us an update on digital assets. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (07:30) - Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (11:34) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 2, 2025 · 11 min
Markets mull new tariffs and continuing US/China tensions
US action was somewhat muted on Friday, although indices closed the month of May comfortably higher. President Trump announced that he was doubling import tariffs on steel and aluminium. He also accused China of breaking the Geneva agreement. China has responded today to say that they have not. Markets in Asia are mostly lower this morning on the back of this, and US futures point to a lower open today. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the show to discuss the relevance, or not, of that age-old adage: ‘Sell in May and go away’. (00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (05:36) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:52) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 30, 2025 · 11 min
Who gets to set tariffs?
The US economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, fueling ongoing recession concerns amidst escalating trade tensions and mixed economic indicators. Technology giant NVIDIA posted strong quarterly results, providing a much-needed boost to market sentiment. US courts are deliberating on the authority to impose tariffs, with the decision pending between President Trump and the Senate. President Trump held his first meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell since taking office, marking a significant encounter. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the US-China trade negotiations as "a bit stalled," which is exerting downward pressure on Asian markets today. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Sales in Geneva, notes that the US dollar remained range-bound throughout the week and provides his thoughts on the tariff news. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:27,5 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 06:04 FX and metals markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva) 10:04 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
May 28, 2025 · 13 min
Bond markets surprised yesterday, but will the good news last?
US stock markets played catch-up yesterday after a long holiday weekend. A boost in consumer confidence in both the US and Germany also contributed to the upbeat market mood, as did reports that the US is nearing the signing of new trade deals, potentially as early as this week. In the Asia-Pacific region overnight, equity markets delivered a mixed performance, with South Korea posting the strongest gains, driven largely by a surge in semiconductor stocks as investors positioned themselves ahead of Nvidia's earnings report later today. Meanwhile, shifts in longer-dated government bond yields remain the dominant theme in fixed income. To shed more light on the latest developments, we are joined today by Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research. 00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing 01:01 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing 07:31 Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research 12:06 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 27, 2025 · 14 min
Tariff noise trumps markets again – and the US dollar suffers
Trade tensions took centre stage again, as President Donald Trump delayed the imposition of 50% tariffs on the EU until early July. The move sparked a relief rally in European markets, while the US dollar fell to its lowest level since 2022. Trading volumes remained subdued due to holidays in the US and UK markets. Meanwhile, Japan's long-term yields declined as the Ministry of Finance is apparently considering reducing bond issuance, which would be a potential boost for stocks and the yen. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, joins us to discuss his insights on the potential investment case for digital assets and he also provides an update on AI. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (06:33) - Digital assets and AI update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (13:24) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 26, 2025 · 12 min
Stock market relief as 50% EU tariffs postponed
US President Donald Trump says he has agreed to postpone the imposition of 50% tariffs on European Union imports until 9 July as the EU continues to negotiate a trade deal with Washington. European equity futures are higher on the news. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, offers his thoughts from a technical perspective on the current US dollar weakness and the steepening Treasury yield curve. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 07:13 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis) 10:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
May 23, 2025 · 12 min
US Treasury yields drive market volatility
Yesterday’s trading session saw significant volatility in Treasury yields after the US House of Representatives approved President Trump’s major tax reform bill. This occurred amidst mixed macroeconomic data from the US. European stocks closed lower, while key US indices finished the day mixed around the zero line. Meanwhile, in Asia, one of the top stories overnight was the first phone call between the US and China since their meeting in Geneva. Asian markets were broadly higher. Bitcoin reached new record highs due to a combination of factors. To discuss the latest developments in the US dollar, platinum, and other foreign exchange and precious metals news, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva. 00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing 00:28 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing 07:43 FX/Metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva 11:12 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 22, 2025 · 12 min
US assets slump as budget deficit concerns resurface
US markets began yesterday's trading session on a weak footing, with sentiment deteriorating further as the day progressed. Concerns over a further widening of the US budget deficit, coupled with a disappointing US Treasury auction, led to a rise in yields and credit spreads, which in turn weighed on equity prices. In contrast, European markets defied the trend, with the German DAX index reaching a new record high. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, offers his insights into the recently remarkable performance of the industrial metal copper. 00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing 00:24 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing 06:37 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research 10:55 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 21, 2025 · 14 min
Wall Street halts six-day rally
While European equities had another strong day yesterday, US equities took a breather following an impressive rally from their April lows. US Treasury yields near recent highs, along with the fiscal situation in the US, remain concerns for investors and weigh on sentiment and the dollar. A report about a potential attack by Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities supported flows into traditional safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc, the yen, and gold. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about the recent rating downgrade of the US by Moody’s and about the investment implications of the US fiscal situation. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses what that means for equity investors and why they should think more globally. 00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing 00:27 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing 05:16 Impact of Moody’s downgrade: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research 08:51 The outlook for developed-market equities: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy 13:25 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 20, 2025 · 13 min
Momentum marches on as investors shrug off US downgrade
US stocks managed to eke out a slim gain yesterday, with the S&P 500 index notching its sixth consecutive winning session, as investors sought to look past the Moody’s downgrade of the United States’ credit rating. Meanwhile, stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region are trading in the green after China cut its lending rate, which has fuelled some broad-based up moves across the region. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, who provides insights into his expectations for Chineseand Japanese equity markets. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 05:52 Asia update by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong) 12:44 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
May 19, 2025 · 9 min
Moody’s downgrades the US
The Nasdaq surged 7% last week, driven by the US-China trade truce and President Trump's USD 2 trillion Middle East deals. Novo Nordisk's CEO resigned, and Moody's downgraded the US credit rating due to rising deficits. In China, retail sales grew 5.1% year-on-year, despite slowing industrial output. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that the short-term US equity market recovery remains intact, even as the USD remains in a bear market. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 05:58 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis) 08:16 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
May 16, 2025 · 16 min
US equities close to a technical bull market
Global equities ended Thursday’s trading session mostly higher, with defensive and defence stocks leading the gains while big tech was mostly lower. This came while Walmart’s CEO warned yesterday that tariffs would force it to raise prices this year - even after the recent decrease in duties on China - and data included softer US producer prices as well as underwhelming retail sales. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about what this means for bond markets and why he would cut the allocation to higher-risk segments. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Geneva, discusses his expectations for a weaker Swiss franc and highlights his preferred currency pair. 00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing 00:31 Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing 06:22 Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research 10:49 FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva 15:12 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 15, 2025 · 10 min
Markets pause for breath
European markets closed lower on Wednesday after the positive sentiment induced by the weekend’s interim trade deal between China and the US seemed to run of steam. The Dow Jones closed in the red, although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed the day slightly higher, mainly driven by the mega-cap names and a few select beneficiaries of President Trump’s trade deals in Doha. US Treasury prices and gold felt the effect of easing trade tensions, as well as the market revising its expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025. Asia’s equity markets were lower today. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to provide extra insight into gold’s move lower. 00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing 00:24 Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing 05:47 Gold: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research 09:16 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 14, 2025 · 12 min
(US) technology back in the driving seat – for now
US markets rallied on the back of a US-China trade truce and lower-than-expected inflation data, easing recession concerns and boosting equities. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices rose, driven by gains in tech stocks, such as Nvidia and AMD, following a major semiconductor deal with a Saudi Arabian AI firm. In Asia, Hong Kong's market gained ground following strong earnings from JD.com, whereas Japan's Nikkei 225 experienced a slight decline after a 13-day uptrend. Looking ahead, European shares are poised to open flat, building on the previous day's positive session, which was fuelled by improved sentiment in Germany and a record high for the DAX. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, observes that Q1 earnings have exceeded expectations, but companies are issuing cautious guidance due to reduced visibility on the economic outlook. 00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing 00:27 Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing 06:47 Earnings/Equity Market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy 11:08 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 13, 2025 · 17 min
US stocks rally after US-China trade detente
After the US and China both slashed their reciprocal tariff rates, US markets responded with jubilation yesterday, sparking an impressive rally with the S&P 500 building on its recent run as investors priced out the chance of a downturn. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by David Meier, Senior Economist, who shares his insights on the impact of recent trade talks, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who provides an update on the outlook for digital assets following the recent recovery in crypto markets. 00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing 00:38 Markets wrap-up: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing 06:13 Trade talks progress: Dave Meier, Senior Economist 12:41 Digital assets update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research 16:44 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 12, 2025 · 10 min
Tariff tensions ease and markets react
The United States and China have taken a step towards resolving their trade dispute, with both sides describing their initial talks in Switzerland this weekend as constructive. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned substantial progress, lifting equity markets in Asia and boosting investor sentiment. Meanwhile, safe havens like gold are feeling the pressure. Our guest, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins us to discuss where he sees the most upside as good news on the trade landscape keeps on rolling in, at least for now. Tune in to find out how these developments are moving markets. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 07:02 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis) 09:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
May 9, 2025 · 12 min
We have a deal!
The US and the UK agreed a new trade deal yesterday, making the UK the first country to reach a deal with the US since US President Trump introduced new tariffs a month ago. Although this boosted global market sentiment, with US and European markets closing higher, UK stocks underperformed. The deal also weighed on safe-haven assets like US Treasuries and gold. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s rate cut by 25 basis points was seen as a supportive move for the UK economy. Asia-Pacific markets were largely higher overnight, buoyed by China's stronger-than-expected export growth in April and a narrowing import decline, which brings some relief to Beijing ahead of tariff talks with the US this weekend. Joining us to discuss the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals markets is Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Solutions in Geneva. 00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing 00:27 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing 07:26 FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva 11:45 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
May 8, 2025 · 18 min
Fed says ‘No’ to pre-emptive rate cuts
The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting yesterday and Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that with inflation still running above target, the Fed has no intention of cutting rates pre-emptively. He also warned that if tariff levels remain where they are, then a risk is posed to economic growth and inflation. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, provides more insight into the Fed’s decision making and its market impact on today’s show and Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides a timely update on the oil market, sharing his insights into the latest market events. 00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing 00:38 Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing 06:49 Oil update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research 10:22 Bond market update post-Fed: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research 17:36 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.