Moving Markets

Julius Baer

Moving Markets is the home of podcasts at Julius Baer. Here, our expert teams share concise daily market updates in ‘Moving Markets Daily’ which is complemented by ‘Moving Markets: The View Beyond’, a weekly show dedicated to discussing the context, thematic angles, and investment implications behind key topics shaping the news cycle and conversations among our relationship managers and clients.

The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

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1,058 episodes
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Episodes1058

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Aug 4, 2025 · 12 min
Higher tariffs and lower jobs numbers hit equity markets
President Trump’s team delivered more tariff surprises ahead of the weekend with conditions worsening for both Canada and Switzerland. Then the jobs data delivered some ugly news for the US economy, with severe downward revisions to May and June’s data which saw the bearer of the tidings - the commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics – lose her job. Added to this, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler announced her early departure from office, leaving the President with two new job announcements to make. It’s therefore no surprise that equity markets fell, and US treasuries rallied, as markets more than doubled their previous day’s bet on a September rate cut to 87.5%. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the podcast today to provide insights into how the tariff news might impact Swiss investors as he discusses rates, the Swiss franc and Swiss equities. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (06:58) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (10:50) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 31, 2025 · 12 min
Tech giants lift markets after Fed-induced decline
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has tempered expectations that the central bank may cut interest rates at its September meeting, leading to a modest decline in stock prices. However, after the close of trading, both Microsoft and Meta reported strong earnings for Q2, with their shares rising substantially, which could set the stage for a positive trading day ahead. Meanwhile, Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Sales in Geneva, offers his insights on the current strength of the US dollar and identifies potential opportunities as we head into August. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (07:26) - FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (11:27) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 30, 2025 · 12 min
Solid earnings, growth upgrade, and a sell-off
European equities rebounded yesterday, driven by largely positive earnings, as the IMF upgraded its global growth forecast for this year and next, citing reduced US trade war impact and a weaker US dollar. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk makes headlines with a 30% share dive on revised sales and profit guidance, and US equities lose steam ahead of today’s Fed meeting. For more on the earnings season so far and ahead of the four mega-cap tech stocks that are scheduled for this week, we have Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, on the show. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (05:55) - Q2 Earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (11:32) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 29, 2025 · 13 min
Market optimism faded quickly yesterday
The long-awaited trade deal between the EU and the US only provided a temporary boost to the markets, with concerns swiftly being voiced in Europe. Many described the agreement as one-sided, favouring US interests. Following the announcement, the US dollar strengthened while the price of gold plummeted to a three-week low. Meanwhile, oil prices rose, driven by the trade deal and President Trump’s renewed pressure on Russia. Attention now turns to US monetary policy, with the Federal Open Market Committee commencing its two-day meeting today. Joining us on the show to discuss the implications of last week's European Central Bank decision and provide insight into this week's rate decision in the US is our Chief Economist, David Kohl. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (06:12) - Central Banks and Trade Deals: David Kohl, Chief Economist (12:26) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 28, 2025 · 10 min
Trade tensions ease as US and EU strike a deal
The European Union and the United States have reached a significant trade agreement, substantially reducing the likelihood of an all-out trade war. While some details remain unclear, the markets have responded favourably to the announcement. In a related development, Chinese and US officials are set to convene in Stockholm today to discuss easing trade tensions. Markets have a lot to digest this week with the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the latest US jobs data due. Also, it is a busy week for company earnings reports, with four of the Mag7 companies reporting, among other. As always on Mondays, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins us to share his views on markets from a technical analysis perspective. (00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (05:35) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:35) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 25, 2025 · 11 min
The ECB keeps rates unchanged
Earnings remain in the spotlight, with notable gains in the banking sector, while Tesla tumbled amid US policy headwinds. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged and offered a modestly upbeat assessment of the eurozone economy, raising doubts among investors about further policy easing, even while US tariff threats still cloud the outlook. This pushed yields higher and weighed on gold. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva, explains why the precious metal has consolidated since Liberation Day, and why he agrees with the consensus view of higher prices for metals. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (05:54) - FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:33) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 24, 2025 · 11 min
Progress in trade negotiations lift markets
Global equity markets rally on US-Japan trade deal progress, sparking hopes for EU agreements, with equities surging and gold easing. Japan’s Nikkei 225 reaches a new all-time high, as does the S&P 500. In earnings: Alphabet surprises positively, while Tesla disappoints. Companies reporting today include industry giants like Nestle, Roche, Deutsche Bank, and LVMH. The ECB is not expected to cut rates today, with the market’s focus on its outlook. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses China's historic new hydropower project – which is six times bigger than the Three Gorges Dam – and explores its potential impact on iron ore and steel prices. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (05:58) - Iron ore and steel: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (09:51) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 23, 2025 · 11 min
Earnings and trade deals keep markets busy
The current earnings season is proving particularly intriguing, with some companies surpassing analyst expectations and others struggling, particularly due to the impact of US tariffs. On the subject of tariffs, the recently announced US-Japan trade deal has boosted market confidence and fuelled optimism that others, such as the European Union, may also be able to secure similar deals. Meanwhile, attention is slowly but surely shifting towards interest rate decisions, with the ECB set to announce its decision tomorrow and the US Federal Reserve scheduled to follow next week. Joining us on the show today is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who provides an update and outlook on the crypto space. (00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (07:10) - Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (10:37) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 22, 2025 · 12 min
US stocks hit a new record - despite trade unease
The US stock market reached new heights, driven by the strong performance of several of the top tech giants, but the broader market failed to follow suit. Meanwhile, government bond yields declined across the board as the deadline for President Trump's trade negotiations, set for 1 August, draws closer. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, offers his insights on the Japanese market in the aftermath of the recent election upheaval and provides a comprehensive overview of the earnings season thus far. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (07:04) - Implications of Japan elections and earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (11:27) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 21, 2025 · 10 min
A historic upset in Japan
Japan's Upper House election has sparked market uncertainty after the ruling LDP coalition lost control. Nevertheless, the JPY remained surprisingly stable. The S&P 500 and MSCI World indices reached new heights last week, bolstered by robust economic data and impressive corporate earnings. The US Congress passes legislation regulating stablecoins, thereby giving credibility to the digital asset industry. According to Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, the CHF is likely to maintain its strength, and small- and mid-cap stocks are currently preferred over large-cap equivalents in the Swiss equities market. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (06:09) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:17) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 18, 2025 · 12 min
Markets buoyed by strong earnings and data
Global stock markets experienced a positive day yesterday, bolstered by impressive earnings reports – including those from ABB – and favourable macroeconomic data from the US. The latter indicated a resilient retail sector, underpinned by a strong US consumer. As a result, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both closed at record highs. In Asia, however, the outlook is more mixed, with attention centred on Japan ahead of its upper house elections this weekend. On the commodities front, oil prices remain steady, whereas gold has edged down slightly this morning. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and the US dollar have both appreciated. We are joined today by Bence Boldvai from FX/PM Solutions, who discusses the latest developments in currencies and metals. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (07:26) - FX and metals: Bence Boldvai, FX/PM Solutions (11:07) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 17, 2025 · 11 min
Trump escalates attack on Fed independence
The US President’s comments regarding potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell sparked market volatility. The initial reaction was swift, with the dollar and stocks tumbling, but the market later showed resilience with the S&P 500 rising. Strong US bank earnings and mixed inflation signals added to the complex picture. Global trade tensions weighed on European stocks, with shares of ASML and Renault plunging, while in Asia, TSMC came out with strong results. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides some impressive numbers behind Bitcoin’s march to a new all-time high. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (06:39) - Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (10:40) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 16, 2025 · 17 min
Tariffs have arrived in US inflation data
Stocks retreated in response to US inflation data, which met expectations but showed that tariffs have arrived in inflation figures. The earnings season has started with mixed bank earnings dragging down broader equity markets, while the tech heavy Nasdaq reached a record high on gains by chip giant Nvidia. This followed the US decision to ease restrictions on selling AI chips to China. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares his insights on what to expect from the earnings season and why he sees more upside potential for the defence sector. And Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why Japanese bond yields increased so strongly and Japan’s election this weekend remains a risk event. (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (00:52) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (06:14) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (11:52) - Earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (16:21) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 15, 2025 · 11 min
Market focus shifts to earnings as tariff threats linger
Stock markets continue to show resilience in the face of the latest US tariff threats and potential countermeasures from trading partners such as the EU. Other significant news yesterday included French President Emmanuel Macron announcing plans to substantially increase defence spending, while the US shifted its stance towards Russia, threatening to introduce secondary sanctions. Overnight in Asia, investors digested a slew of Chinese macroeconomic data and the latest increase in Japanese government bond yields. Today, the focus shifts to US banks as they kick off the earnings season. Also joining the show today is Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, with an update on gold and silver. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (07:16) - Gold and silver update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:46) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 14, 2025 · 17 min
Markets take a wait-and-see stance amid escalating trade tensions
Markets take note of the escalating trade tensions, yet their response appears surprisingly subdued. The US dollar has edged upwards, just like global long-term yields, and stock prices have dipped slightly. Investors seem to be adopting a cautious stance, awaiting the ongoing developments and hoping that some political flexibility can be maintained until 1 August. In addition, Richard Tang, Head of Research in Hong Kong, discusses the specific drivers of China's onshore and offshore markets, as well as the potential significance of Japan's upcoming upper-house elections for the country's government. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (06:29) - Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong (16:07) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 11, 2025 · 10 min
US stocks and Bitcoin reach new records
US equities reach another record high as investors downplay tariff concerns, buoyed by a positive forecast from Delta Airlines. Bitcoin soars to a new all-time high, exceeding USD 118,000. European shares see modest gains, with the Swiss market leading the way due to advancements in healthcare, and the UK market rising on the back of strong commodity performance following the announcement of the US copper tariffs. The original Hermès Birkin handbag is sold for EUR 8.58 million. According to Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX & PM Solutions, the US dollar's downward trend remains in place, although he notes that July and August are typically not periods of strong trends. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (06:15) - FX and metals: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions (08:57) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 10, 2025 · 19 min
New tariff threats fail to dent enthusiasm for equities
President Trump delivers more tariff letters and lays down the gauntlet to Brazil – announcing a 50% tariff on their exports into the US. Copper also faces a 50% import tariff. US markets rally on artificial intelligence enthusiasm as Nvidia buoys tech stocks, becoming the first company ever to reach a valuation of USD 4 trillion. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, provides his thoughts on the latest tariff developments and what they might mean for the US economy and the dollar going forwards, and sticking with the tariff theme, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, delves into the copper news and the multiple factors at play when it comes to pricing. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (05:54) - Tariff developments by David Kohl, Chief Economist (13:49) - Copper: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (18:07) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 9, 2025 · 16 min
Stocks stay put and yields rise as tariffs are back in vogue
Stock markets remain quiet, shrugging off President Trump's assertive rhetoric on additional tariffs and his stance that no exemptions will be made ahead of the 1st August deadline for reciprocal tariffs. Nevertheless, government bond yields are rising across major markets due to potential inflationary pressures triggered by the tariffs and a broader re-evaluation of risk appetite. To provide insight into these developments, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses why he remains relatively unfazed by the increase in yields, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, shares his outlook for the upcoming Q2 earnings reporting season. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (06:01) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (10:49) - Q2 Earnings season preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (14:53) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 8, 2025 · 11 min
Trade letters trickling in
The US sent a flurry of ‘trade letters' to numerous countries yesterday, stating that it will impose steep tariffs from 1 August 2025 unless these countries take steps to open their markets to American products. Meanwhile, US President Trump signed an executive order, delaying the deadline for reciprocal tariffs from this Wednesday to 1 August. The stock market reacted swiftly, with US indices closing lower yesterday, but market sentiment appears to have improved slightly overnight as investors focused on the fact that Trump has left the door open for further trade discussions. With a quiet economic agenda today, investors are likely to remain focused on the trade saga and await further developments. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, joins our show today to provide an update on the world of crypto. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (06:38) - Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (10:09) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 7, 2025 · 9 min
Renewed tariff threats
Investors are seeking protection in more defensive areas of the market as US President Donald Trump ratchets up trade tensions. European and US equity futures plunge alongside Asian shares amidst fresh tariff uncertainty ahead of the Wednesday tariff deadline. However, 1 August appears to be the new deadline, allowing certain countries more time for negotiations. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, talks about the optical illusion of recent all-time highs in US equities and the need to hedge US dollar assets, particularly for Swiss franc investors. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (05:46) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (08:06) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.