Moving Markets

Julius Baer

Moving Markets is the home of podcasts at Julius Baer. Here, our expert teams share concise daily market updates in ‘Moving Markets Daily’ which is complemented by ‘Moving Markets: The View Beyond’, a weekly show dedicated to discussing the context, thematic angles, and investment implications behind key topics shaping the news cycle and conversations among our relationship managers and clients.

The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

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1,058 episodes
Updated Yesterday

Episodes1058

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Jul 4, 2025 · 10 min
Trump intensifies trade tensions ahead of tariff deadline
A solid US jobs report sends global stocks higher and US equities to all-time highs. But the devil lies in the detail. A US Federal Reserve rate cut in July is now off the table, pushing US Treasury yields higher and gold lower. What comes next? Investors are already looking to next week when Wednesday’s tariff deadline looms. Trump has intensified trade tensions even ahead of the deadline, saying the administration would start sending out letters to countries from today. Joining us is Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva, who shares his views on the weakening US dollar, the moves in the British pound this week, and why gold remains a buy-on-dip. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (06:06) - FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (09:40) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 3, 2025 · 11 min
US-Vietnam trade deal announced
The S&P 500 reached a new high, fuelled by technology stocks. Despite weak US private jobs data, optimism prevailed thanks to a Vietnam trade deal and significant bank dividend increases. However, UK politics sparked fresh concerns, causing the pound and UK domestic equities to decline. Meanwhile, copper prices are surging due to tariff-induced stockpiling in the US – Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides his take. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (06:12) - Copper: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:27) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 2, 2025 · 14 min
Markets shrug off concerns on the upcoming tariff ‘D-day’
While European stocks had a subdued start yesterday, broader US indices managed to kick off the second half of 2025 firmly in the green, shrugging off concerns on the looming tariff ‘decision day’ on 9 July. However, big tech mega caps dragged down the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Talk of the day was the Senate’s passing of the ‘Big, beautiful (tax) bill’ as President Trump calls it, and a flurry of manufacturing activity reports from around the globe, which showed that this part of the economy keeps on facing challenges. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why he believes that the US Treasury yield curve is likely to steepen going forward. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (06:27) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (12:55) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jul 1, 2025 · 12 min
US trade deals back in the limelight
With geopolitics now taking a back seat again, investor attention is moving to US tariffs. Markets are focused on whether the EU and the US can conclude a trade deal in time for the 9 July deadline, while Canadian PM Carney yesterday said that US-Canada trade talks are set to resume after Canada withdrew its digital services tax on US tech companies. US equity markets rose yesterday, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 reaching new all-time highs. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on the crypto market and shares his outlook on digital assets for the second half of the year. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing (06:28) - Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (11:49) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 30, 2025 · 8 min
Trade progress
Global equity markets closed the week on a strong note, fuelled by a series of positive developments. Trade progress, delayed trade deadlines, an important change to Trump's ‘One big, beautiful bill’, and NATO's new defence spending target all contributed to the upward momentum, propelling the S&P 500 to a new all-time high. Meanwhile, gold is on track for its first monthly decline this year. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why new all-time highs for US equities are a bullish signal and why he expects the US dollar to continue to weaken. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:26) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (04:58) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (07:21) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 27, 2025 · 11 min
Cheap dollars anybody?
As the US dollar hits a three-and-a-half year low against its major counterparts, global stock markets continue to attract buyers, particularly in Japan, Germany, and the US. With major US equity indices poised to break their previous records set in February, a sense of (rare) geopolitical calm appears to be taking hold, leading to a consolidation in gold prices. Joining us to share his expertise is Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Sales in Geneva, who shares his views on the weakening US dollar and the surge in palladium prices. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:21) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing (06:04) - FX and metals markets: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:03) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 26, 2025 · 15 min
Technology in the lead again
Nvidia hits new all-time high and NATO members pledge to boost defence spending to 5% of GDP. The EUR/USD currency pair briefly surpasses 1.17 on a report that US president Trump wants to nominate a new Fed chair as early as September. The US Federal Housing Finance Agency is exploring ways to let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac consider crypto holdings in mortgage approvals. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes gold is undergoing a short-term mood-driven consolidation. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Investment Analysis, identifies the gold uptrend and USD downtrend as the most pronounced price patterns in the first half of 2025. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (05:59) - Gold update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:05) - Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan, CIO Investment Analysis (14:09) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 25, 2025 · 12 min
Global markets breathe a collective sigh of relief
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding, and equity markets worldwide have been buoyed by positive sentiment. This shift in sentiment has also been evident in commodity markets, where oil prices fell back to pre-escalation levels and gold prices declined accordingly. Meanwhile, in the US, attention is focused on Jerome Powell’s testimony before the House Committee, where investors are hoping to gain insight into the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate policy. To discuss the latest developments in fixed income and monetary policy, we are joined this morning by Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research. (00:00) - Introduction: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (06:25) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (11:49) - Closing remarks: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 24, 2025 · 13 min
Markets respond with cheer following ceasefire in Middle East
Oil prices have continued to fall after Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran conflict, as the immediate threat to the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane appears to have fallen. Asia-Pacific markets are rallying sharply on the news, while European and US stock futures are also strongly higher. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence, who provides an update on the Swiss real estate market now that interest rates in Switzerland have fallen to zero. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing (07:20) - Swiss real estate market update: Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence (12:36) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 23, 2025 · 10 min
Markets in wait-and-see mode
Markets are responding calmly this morning following the US airstrikes on Iran at the weekend, with oil prices initially spiking before retreating to previous levels. Global stocks are trading mixed as investors await potential Iranian reprisals and key economic indicators, including flash Purchasing Managers' Indices and US Personal Consumption Expenditure data later in the week. Key events this week include a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde today, the NATO summit, and testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before Congress on Tuesday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, observes that US equity markets are climbing the wall of worry amid the uncertainty in the Middle East, and he notes that the EUR is at a 10-year high against the JPY. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (05:25) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:02) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 20, 2025 · 11 min
Geopolitics meet monetary policy
While US markets were closed yesterday for the Juneteenth holiday, the rest of the world did not escapemarket volatility. Global stocks fell as uncertainty surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict and potential US involvement continued. Meanwhile, central banks made their interest rate announcements: the Swiss National Bank cut its benchmark rate to 0%, whereas the Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 4.25%. This morning, oil prices have reversed slightly, trading lower; while gold is also down, putting it on track for a weekly loss. Joining us to discuss the latest developments in the US dollar, the Swiss franc, and precious metals is Tim Gagie, our Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva. (00:00) - Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) (00:31) - Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) (06:26) - FX and metals markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva) (10:36) - Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 19, 2025 · 14 min
Middle East tensions and US rates in focus
Markets await clarity on US involvement in the Middle East conflict. The US Federal Reserve holds rates steady, citing inflation and tariff uncertainty. US bank stocks rise on deregulation hopes, while crypto stocks surge after stablecoin legislation passes. The Swiss National Bank will be the first major central bank to lower interest rates to 0% today. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, provides our latest views on the oil market amid the war in the Middle East. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, talks about two interesting markets amid all the uncertainty: Swiss mid-caps and Indian stocks. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing (05:17) - Oil: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (09:30) - Equity markets: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (13:32) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 18, 2025 · 12 min
Escalating Middle East tensions
Donald Trump says he wants a “real end” to the nuclear dispute with Iran, rather than just a ceasefire in the conflict with Israel, and demands “unconditional surrender”. The escalating tensions and another set of weak US macro data triggered a risk-off sentiment, weighing on equities and boosting oil prices. As the Federal Reserve prepares to announce its interest rate decision later today, investors remain cautious amidst heightened volatility in the energy market and growing concerns about a broader crisis in the Middle East. To provide insight into the implications of these events on bond markets, we have Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, on the show who shares his expectations for the US central bank's actions in the coming months. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (05:39) - Bond markets: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (10:46) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 17, 2025 · 12 min
A positive day for equities is sullied by geopolitics
US and European equity markets rallied on Monday, closing their sessions in positive territory. However, after President Trump called for the immediate evacuation of Tehran and decided to abandon the G7 summit to return to Washington, futures turned south. With the exception of Japan, most Asian equity markets turned in a nervous performance overnight as markets wait to see what direction the Israel/Iran situation takes next. US data and tomorrow’s FOMC decision will also be closely monitored. On todays’ show, Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on digital assets where demand is strong and he sees a healthy derivatives market. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (06:54) - Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (11:01) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 16, 2025 · 10 min
Market sell-off remains limited despite geopolitical stress
As geopolitical tensions escalate, with Iran and Israel continuing to trade retaliatory blows, direct US involvement has so far been avoided. The sell-off in equities remains relatively contained, while the safe havens of gold, oil and the Swiss franc see inflows. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, offers his thoughts from a technical perspective on the US dollar weakness and the recent rebound in oil. (00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) (00:28) - Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) (07:25) - Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis) (09:46) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 13, 2025 · 15 min
Tensions in the Middle East reach a new high
Oil prices are surging up to 10%, while equity futures are declining. Safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries are gaining traction. Overall, the initial market reaction to the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East is relatively contained, except for oil, as the situation remains fluid and uncertain. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about what to expect from the US, UK, Japanese, and Swiss central banks next week. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Geneva, discusses the Middle East crisis and its potential short-term impact on the US dollar, which is close to a multi-year low, and gold, which is approaching its all-time high. He also comments on platinum amid a supply/demand imbalance. (00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) (01:01) - Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) (05:43) - Bond market update by Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research) (10:19) - FX and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva) (14:13) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 12, 2025 · 23 min
Markets, the USD and gold: Our CIO’s latest views
Although the US trade deal with China is ‘done’, according to President Trump, the worst is not yet over for other countries. They can expect to receive a letter from Trump outlining his terms for trade in the coming weeks. Renewed trade tensions and escalating conflicts in the Middle East are dampening investor sentiment. Yesterday, stock markets saw a broad decline, while oil and gold prices rose. Also on the show today is our Group Chief Investment Officer, Yves Bonzon, who offers valuable insights into the current market landscape. Additionally, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides an update on the evolving dynamics in the commodities market. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (07:18) - Market update (macro update, USD, gold): Yves Bonzon, Group CIO (16:01) - Commodities update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (22:25) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 11, 2025 · 11 min
Trade talks drive stock market gains
US-China trade talks continue to progress positively and may conclude soon, but have still yet to reach an agreement. Optimism among investors has led to stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region rallying today, with tech stocks in particular leading the charge. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who provides us with an update on equity markets and offers his outlook for how investors should position themselves for the rest of the year. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing (00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Jonti Warris, Investment Writing (06:32) - Equity markets update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (10:34) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 10, 2025 · 13 min
China/US trade talks set to continue
US representatives including US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with China’s vice premier and lead trade negotiator He Lifeng in London yesterday. Both sides have temporarily slashed tariffs to allow the talks to progress following President Trump’s phone conversation with the Chinese President Xi Jinping last Thursday. As the talks enter day two, US and Asian stock markets are cautiously optimistic. Indeed, the MSCI China Index has now rallied sufficiently to enter a bull market. Meanwhile, the markets will also be watching US inflation data tomorrow for indications regarding the next move by the Fed at their meeting next week. With Bitcoin rallying to less than 2% shy of the record high, Manual Villegas from Next Generation Research joins the podcast with all the latest news on stablecoins and the opportunities and challenges facing those who invest in them. (00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) (00:28) - Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) (06:16) - Digital assets – stablecoins by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) (11:46) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jun 6, 2025 · 11 min
War of words
US equities closed lower after choppy trading on Thursday, although they ended off worst levels. This followed three straight daily gains for the S&P 500, and major indices remain on track for modest weekly gains. Yesterday, big tech was mixed but Tesla notably lagged as Musk and Trump's public war of words escalated. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank cut rates as expected, but surprised markets with a more hawkish tone, casting doubt on the likelihood of another rate cut in July. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva, discusses what this means for the euro and how to position for today’s US payrolls. (00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) (00:25) - Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing) (05:34) - FX and metals markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva) (10:02) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.