Moving Markets

Julius Baer

Moving Markets is the home of podcasts at Julius Baer. Here, our expert teams share concise daily market updates in ‘Moving Markets Daily’ which is complemented by ‘Moving Markets: The View Beyond’, a weekly show dedicated to discussing the context, thematic angles, and investment implications behind key topics shaping the news cycle and conversations among our relationship managers and clients.

The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

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1,058 episodes
Updated Yesterday

Episodes1058

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Apr 3, 2025 · 16 min
And the verdict is? Tariffs for all
Last night President Trump delivered a 99 minute speech in which he announced a baseline 10% tariff across the board. For many of the 180 countries on that board, the actual number is much higher: China now faces a rate of 54% and it has vowed to take ‘resolute counter-measures’ to safeguard its own rights and interests. Markets reacted badly to the news with only gold and US Treasury prices moving higher. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, joins the podcast to share his thoughts on the impact on economic growth and why the biggest inflationary impact might actually be felt in the US. And Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, brings a timely update on AI. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:44 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 06:33 Liberation Day: David Kohl (Chief Economist) 11:20 AI update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) 15:08 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Apr 2, 2025 · 10 min
Markets brace for Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff plans – more turmoil ahead?
In this episode, we dive into the latest market developments as European government bonds and equities surge on contained eurozone inflation. Meanwhile, US stocks experience a volatile session ahead of the unveiling of the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff plans. Joining us is Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who shares his insights on why he thinks it's not the right time to increase risk exposure in bond markets. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 05:49 Bond market latest: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research) 09:39 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Apr 1, 2025 · 11 min
Gold shines brighter as Liberation Day looms
European markets dropped yesterday but US stocks rebounded and the S&P 500 index closed up 0.6%, although this wasn’t enough to stop the benchmark index from posting its worst month in two years. Gold hit a fresh all-time high, up 1.2%, as investors sought safety amid concerns over the Trump administration's imminent tariffs and their potential impact on inflation and growth. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, who shares his outlook on energy markets. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 06:22 Energy markets by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research) 10:15,5 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Mar 31, 2025 · 12 min
The week begins on a risk-off note
US inflation concerns intensified, with the core PCE rising 2.8% year-on-year, fuelling fears of stagflation. Tariffs remain a significant concern, with the US poised to unveil new measures on Wednesday. The EU is bracing itself for a potential 20% tariff, and Goldman Sachs has increased the likelihood of a US recession from 20% to 35%. Asian markets are feeling the strain of tariff uncertainty, with stocks declining, the Japanese yen strengthening, and gold at an all-time high. Also in focus this week: Friday's US jobs report, which may signal a cooling labour market. Meanwhile, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses the S&P 500, gold, and the US dollar amidst a risk-off backdrop in the markets. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 08:29 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis) 11:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Mar 28, 2025 · 12 min
Tariffs remain top of mind
Wednesday’s announcement of new tariffs on all non-US-made cars sent shockwaves through the markets, with stock markets worldwide feeling the ripple effects. Carmakers were among the hardest hit, while some investors sought safer havens in more stable sectors, such as consumer packaged goods, where share prices rose. In the Asia-Pacific region, markets were largely down, despite news that Chinese President Xi Jinping had met with global CEOs in Beijing and speculation that Trump may cut tariffs on Chinese goods to facilitate a TikTok deal. Against this backdrop, gold reached yet another record high overnight. In this episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, who shares his insights on the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals, and offers some interesting trade ideas. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 07:05 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 11:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Mar 27, 2025 · 10 min
Stocks sell off as tariff angst hits markets
A three-day period of relative calm on Wall Street came to an end as major tech and automobile companies led a decline in global equity markets yesterday. Concerns about the economic impact of ever more tariff announcements, weak consumer sentiment and rising inflation risks are dampening investor risk appetite. Nvidia and Tesla slumped nearly 6%, and the automobile sector was among yesterday’s laggards after Trump announced 25% tariffs on the sector. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about the impact of tariffs on copper and why he expects the latest rally will not last. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up Jan Bopp (Investment Writing) 05:29 Copper: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research) 08:54 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Mar 26, 2025 · 17 min
Consumer sentiment slumps and copper prices surge – but markets remain calm
Consumer sentiment in the US continues to decline, with some indices flashing warning signs of a potential recession. Despite the weakness in sentiment, hard economic data remains resilient - for now. Meanwhile, one of the main beneficiaries of the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, is industrial metal copper, whose price has reached an all-time-high in New York. Join us as we discuss the latest developments with Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who predicts further volatility on the horizon, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who argues that investors should capitalise on the current US equity bounce to diversify into international markets. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:27 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 06:09 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research) 11:24 Equity strategy update: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy) 16:43 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Mar 25, 2025 · 10 min
Big tech leads relief rally amid optimism on tariffs and data
US equity markets jumped yesterday on hopes that President Trump may hold back from implementing some of his wide-ranging tariff plans, hinting at a narrower scope of reciprocal levies set to be announced on 2 April. In today’s Asia session, though, it’s a different story, with tech stocks on the back foot, weighing on markets. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, who shares his outlook on digital assets following the substantial outflows seen in recent weeks. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 05:51 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) 09:40 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Mar 24, 2025 · 9 min
US equities trying to rebound
Central banks adopted a cautious tone on monetary policy, driving gold to a new high last week. The EUR suffered a 'sell the news' reaction following the announcement of Germany's spending plans. President Trump's comments on tariff flexibility provided a boost to the S&P 500 late on Friday. Looking ahead, this week promises to be eventful, with over 50 corporate results from China, and Ukraine peace talks. Investors will be closely watching Friday's US PCE inflation data. According to Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, a sustained rebound in US stocks will require broad-based buying and a shift in behaviour from retail investors - refraining from buying every dip in the market. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 06:28 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis) 08:23 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Mar 21, 2025 · 11 min
Equities halt Fed-fuelled rally as trade fears linger
Equity markets remain fragile as a renewed focus on trade fears derailed a short-lived recovery in risky assets as a busy central bank week draws to a close. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about the impact of the latest central bank communications on currency markets, and what he expects for gold going forward. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:23 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing) 05:47 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 10:11 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Mar 20, 2025 · 16 min
Fed does not scare markets
The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5%, while downgrading the growth forecast to 1.7% and increasing inflation expectations to 2.8%. Chairman Powell's comments sparked a positive market reaction, with the Treasury curve steepening and equities rising on hopes of future rate cuts. Meanwhile, Turkey's lira plummeted over 10% after the detention of Istanbul's mayor. The EU may exclude the US, the UK, and Turkey from its EUR 150bn defence spending fund if they do not sign security agreements. Today, the Swiss National Bank and Bank of England will announce their interest rate decisions. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that growth concerns are luring safe-haven seekers back into gold. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, says that US equities are no longer the only game in town after two years of unmatched outperformance. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:34 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 06:51 Gold: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research) 10:49 Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis) 15:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Mar 19, 2025 · 17 min
Germany gives the green light to major fiscal package
The German parliament voted in favour of a significant fiscal package yesterday, paving the way for increased defence spending and a substantial infrastructure fund, subject to the bill passing through the Bundesrat on Friday. This news was warmly received by investors, helping to drive a solid performance in European markets. In contrast, the US market told a different story, with all three major indices closing lower, largely due to a sell-off in some of the biggest technology stocks and growing investor nervousness ahead of today’s Federal Reserve decision. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has already made its move, leaving its key policy rate unchanged at 0.5%. Joining us to provide further insight into the Fed’s decision is Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research. We are also joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who shares his thoughts on the shift away from US equities. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:41 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 06:35 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research) 11:44 Equity Strategy update: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy) 16:18 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Mar 18, 2025 · 10 min
90% of the S&P 500 sees a rally
It was a good day almost across the board for US stocks yesterday with rallies in all the major indices. The megacaps though did not fare so well and a gauge of the Magnificent 7 fell 1.1%. European markets rallied ahead of Germany’s debt brake vote which is expected to be successful in the Bundestag today. Asia joined in the rally party this morning with China tech stocks leading the charge. Japan’s markets were buoyed by Berkshire Hathaway’s investments yesterday. All this ahead of four central bank meetings this week in the US, Japan, Switzerland and the UK. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to tell us what investors should be watching for when it comes to Bitcoin’s moves. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 06:26 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) 09:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Mar 17, 2025 · 18 min
Gold shines even brighter amid uncertainty
After gold reached a record high on Friday, breaching USD 3,000 an ounce for the first time, driven by investor anxiety over the economic impact of tariffs and trade wars, US stocks managed to claw back some of last week’s harsh losses, but still ended the week in the red. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his outlook for markets from a technical perspective. Cyril Demaria-Bengochea, Head of Private Markets Strategy, provides an update on private equity and how it fares in an environment of increased volatility. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:35 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 06:53 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis) 09:24 Private equity update by Cyril Demaria-Bengochea (Head of Private Markets Strategy) 16:57,5 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Mar 14, 2025 · 12 min
The S&P 500 enters correction territory
US trade policy continues to weigh heavily on financial market sentiment, leading to a dismal day for US equities yesterday. The S&P 500 officially entered correction territory, joining the Nasdaq, while the Russell 2000 approached bear market territory. However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down concerns, stating that he was not worried about ‘a little bit of volatility over three weeks’. Across the Atlantic,European wine and spirits companies came under pressure after Donald Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on their products, leading to a widespread downturn across the continent. In commodities, gold hit a new high overnight. Joining us today is Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, who provides an in-depth update on metals and currencies, including a special focus on the Australian dollar. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:21 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 06:47 FX and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 11:17 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Mar 13, 2025 · 18 min
Market momentum stalls as shutdown fears rise
US equity indices rose modestly yesterday following relatively subdued inflation data. However, the rebound, that was driven primarily by the performance of the Magnificent Seven, was short-lived, while European markets continued to outpace their US counterparts. As the possibility of a US government shutdown this Saturday looms, investor sentiment remains cautious. Also on the show today is our Group Chief Investment Officer, Yves Bonzon, who offers valuable insights into the current market landscape. Additionally, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, provides an update on the shifting dynamics in the oil market. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:34 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 07:07 Update from our Group CIO: Yves Bonzon (Group CIO) 12:59 Commodities update: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research) 17:26 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Mar 12, 2025 · 14 min
Trump anxiety deepens
A fresh flurry of trade-policy headlines touched off another volatile trading day on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 Index’s three-week selloff briefly reaching 10% before paring some losses after Trump walked back on more tariff threats. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, will talk about the details of the recent sell-off and what it means for the market outlook. And we have Manuel Villegas of Next Generation Research on the show to share his insights on what is happening in the crypto market after the 20% drop in bitcoin. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing) 05:26 Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy) 09:18 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) 13:13 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Mar 11, 2025 · 12 min
US stock market rout intensifies amid recession fears
US markets plummeted yesterday due to growing fears of a looming recession, with the major US stock indices all falling sharply, amid ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariff policies. The sell-off was particularly brutal in the tech sector, while the VIX volatility index surged 19% and bond yields plunged, reflecting heightened investor anxiety. On today’s podcast, we are also joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, with an update on the German Bund market. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 06:18 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research) 11:01 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Mar 10, 2025 · 10 min
Markets brace for another week of tariff tit-for-tats
Last week, the S&P 500 fell 3.10% suffering its worst week since September last year. The Dow Jones fell 2.37%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.45%. Meanwhile, in Europe the Stoxx 600 closed 0.46% lower on Friday, marking its first losing week in 2025. Nevertheless, Europe’s new plans to increase spending on defence did have a positive effect on the aerospace and defence sectors. Canada has a new Prime Minister in the form of ex Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney. Although he has not actually assumed the role yet, he is already promising to stand up to President Trump. He might have to stand up to China first: they announced new tariffs (some up to 100%) on some of Canada’s goods over the weekend. Our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, joins the show today to explain why we should pay attention to the 200-day moving average when examining US equities charts. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 06:19 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis) 09:09 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Mar 7, 2025 · 12 min
Another blow to artificial intelligence stocks
US equity markets continued to sell-off yesterday, driven by disappointing tech-earnings, Chinese AI innovations, and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy – even after he decided to exempt some goods from Mexico and Canada. In contrast, European equities largely defied the trend, with German equities continuing to rally. Joining us today to discuss the energy landscape is Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, who discusses the potential implications of a ceasefire deal in Ukraine on energy prices. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 0025 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing) 06:33 Geopolitics and energy markets by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research) 11:39 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.