Macro Pulse

Haver Analytics

Haver Analytics is the premier provider of global economic and financial data, delivering timely and accurate time series data to a wide range of clients, including central banks, government agencies, financial institutions, and academic institutions. Founded in 1969, Haver is a privately held company headquartered in New York City with offices around the world.

Haver Analytics also offers a variety of other products and services, including:

• Data visualization and analysis tools
• Data integration and management services
• Custom data solutions
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#159
Wednesday · 20 min
Resilient growth, restless yields
The real economy has refused to buckle. Through a year of tariffs, conflict and tighter money, global growth has held up — and firmer growth has sat naturally alongside higher yields. Indeed, what stands out is why those yields are climbing: almost entirely the real rate and behind it the deeper question of who is now willing to fund America's debt. This week's six charts: 🔹 Global GDP held near its long-run pace in Q2 🔹 August flash PMIs confirm it — helped by industry 🔹 South Korea's chip exports go near-vertical 🔹 The yield climb is being led by the real component 🔹 The world funds a shrinking share of US debt 🔹 Surplus nations turn to gold
#158
August 20 · 20 min
The Cost of Capital Climbs
In this week’s podcast, Andy talks with Sharmila Whelan from Westbourne Research. Long-term interest rates are back near two-decade highs. The short end has eased as soft US data pare back Fed tightening bets, but the long end keeps climbing on deeper, structural forces. Many of this week’s charts set out what they are. US data soften, short-end yields ease Japan leans on exports, not domestic demand Defence spending climbs across Europe Corporates turn from savers to borrowers The saving glut remains concentrated in China US productivity growth (TFP) slips into negative territory
#157
August 12 · 14 min
AI for Macro: Context is Everything
In this episode, Andy Cates is joined by Daniel Jerrett, PhD — founder of SmartMacro Labs and Haver's official training partner — to get past the noise around AI and ask what the technology actually changes for economists and investment teams. They discuss why most teams are stuck in a prompt loop with a ceiling, what separates a chat window from a genuine macro research system (persistence, context engineering, and a trusted data source), how MCP lets models pull Haver data directly, and where human judgment still matters most. Daniel also previews his hands-on workshop, where participants build a working AI research system inside Claude in a single day.
#156
August 6 · 12 min
A Resilient World Economy, and its Price
The global economy has held up better than a noisy summer might suggest, with tensions in the Middle East, intervention to steady the yen, and nerves over AI spending all unsettling sentiment — yet the data have stayed firm and the pressure on interest rates has been upward, not down. In this week's publication we look at why the world economy is proving so resilient, and at the rising cost — in both capital and resources — of the investment boom now under way: Global activity has climbed back above its normal trend. Policy-rate expectations have been marked up across almost every major economy. The neutral rate is now higher than in 2019 in every advanced economy. The rise is led mainly by the swelling supply of government debt. Banks have stopped tightening — the investment boom is funded from profits, not debt. The real copper price sits close to a multi-decade high.
#155
July 30 · 11 min
The Price of an Investment Boom
The Federal Reserve held rates again this week, but the more consequential story is the investment cycle now lifting the real cost of capital — and whether all that spending will pay off. This week's charts trace it from the Fed to the physical constraints that will decide the outcome: Fed holds a fifth time, but on a divided vote Real yields at a two-decade high — driven by growth, not inflation July flash PMIs show a manufacturing-led upturn G4 manufacturing orders have turned firmly higher The equity–bond correlations that broke in 2022 have reverted Baltic energy freight surges while dry bulk stays calm
#154
July 22 · 9 min
Freight: The Signal Markets Miss
Freight markets can offer a timely window into global trade, demand and economic activity—but their signals are often overlooked. Nadia Mirza of the Baltic Exchange joins Haver Analytics Senior Economist Andy Cates to discuss the Baltic’s role in global freight markets, the data and benchmarks it produces, and the new BALTIC database available through Haver Analytics.
#153
July 9 · 12 min
Growth Holds Firm
Global growth continues to hold up well, but this week's data flag a few fresh risks on the inflation and geopolitical front. In our charts this week: Global equity markets remain resilient Global PMIs point to a solid expansion US growth, not inflation, is keeping bond yields elevated Supply chains eased in June, but this week’s Middle East flare-up threatens that Extreme heat across Europe is a fresh supply-side risk AI investment’s highs in 2025
#152
July 2 · 15 min
Forecasters Hold Firm
Oil prices are lower, the US-Iran memorandum is holding, and this week's euro area flash CPI came in below expectations. The near-term inflation picture is improving. But professional forecasters have barely moved their rate calls.
#151
June 25 · 9 min
Calmer Waters, New Currents
Oil is lower, Hormuz traffic is recovering, and the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets since March is unwinding. But calmer waters shouldn't be confused with resolved ones. Beneath the surface, some important new currents are running. In our charts this week: Equity market momentum and global growth surprises — a shifting picture Oil and US two-year yields have decoupled — the Fed under Warsh isn't following crude lower June flash PMIs: supply chain stress easing, manufacturing price pressures softening Hormuz shipping traffic recovering — direction matters even if levels remain depressed South Korea exports, including semis, flagging a modest loss of momentum Super El Niño building — the SOI is drifting negative, and history shows what that means for Asian rice supply
#150
June 18 · 7 min
Between Relief and Reality
The US-Iran MoU has delivered a genuine moment of geopolitical relief — oil lower, yields down, risk assets recovering. But relief is not the same as resolution. Beneath the headlines, the underlying data continue to tell a more complex story. In our charts this week: US growth outperformance widens; Europe and China disappoint UK gilt yields, oil prices and the Bank of England's next move Global semiconductor sales surge to record highs on AI demand Oil retreats on the MoU; copper, uranium and critical minerals hold firm Energy availability as a binding constraint on growth Why this investment boom looks different from the late 1990s
#149
June 11 · 11 min
Inflation at the Crossroads
The global macro backdrop has grown more unsettled. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report has pushed back Fed easing expectations, a tech sell-off has rattled sentiment, and Middle East instability continues to keep energy markets on edge. In our latest Charts of the Week we examine: GDP growth forecasts: broad deterioration, with Taiwan the striking exception Why 2027 inflation forecasts are now drifting above target The reassuring signal from US unit labour costs Renewed supply chain stress and the PPI pipeline Energy costs as a structural constraint, not an exceptional shock China's quiet trade normalisation with the US The key question is whether the current energy shock proves more persistent than even the already-cautious consensus currently assumes.
#148
June 4 · 10 min
Inflation Fears, AI Cheers
The global macro backdrop continues to evolve in ways that would have surprised many investors at the start of the year. Expectations of widespread monetary easing have steadily receded as inflation has proven more persistent and economic activity more resilient than anticipated. In our charts this week we examine: The growing bias toward monetary policy tightening Firming US labour demand Supply side inflation risks Ebbing US tariff pressures South Korea’s semiconductor boom Equity capital flows across Asia Together, these charts highlight a world economy that remains surprisingly resilient, while raising important questions about the outlook for inflation, interest rates, and global investment trends.
#147
May 28 · 10 min
The AI Boom Meets Inflation Angst
Markets have remained relatively resilient as oil prices soften on renewed hopes surrounding the US-Iran negotiations. But beneath the surface, the macro backdrop remains fragile. In our charts this week: • Europe remains vulnerable to higher energy prices • US consumer confidence continues to weaken • Not yet close to the pandemic-era liquidity shock • Broad money growth remains subdued • AI infrastructure investment continues to surge • Semiconductor demand still powering ahead The global economy remains caught between two powerful and competing forces: renewed geopolitical and energy-related inflation risks on one side and a historic AI-driven investment and infrastructure boom on the other.
#146
May 21 · 11 min
Surprise, Surprise
Markets have swung back toward inflation angst as Middle East tensions and higher energy prices push bond yields higher again. But beneath the surface, the macro picture remains increasingly divided: • US inflation surprises re-emerging • Global bond yields backing up • US labour bargaining power still weak • Oil prices elevated despite fading war fears • Core inflation still relatively benign • AI investment boom accelerating The global economy remains caught between two powerful and competing forces: renewed supply-side inflation risks on one side and a historic AI-driven investment boom on the other.
#145
May 7 · 12 min
Still Standing
Talk of a potential easing in Middle East tensions has steadied markets. But scratch the surface, and the macro picture remains far from settled. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension: • Global manufacturing holding up — despite higher energy prices • Shipping costs rising — supply chains tightening again • Oil production constrained — logistics, not demand, the issue • Policy expectations shifting — tilt back toward tightening risk • US bank lending standards – in neutral for now • Wage pressures still elevated — particularly in the UK The takeaway? Markets are still standing — but the balance between growth and inflation is becoming increasingly fragile.
#144
April 30 · 11 min
Tension Beneath the Surface
Despite persistent geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices, and a packed week of central bank decisions (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ), financial markets have remained remarkably resilient. But beneath that surface calm, the data are starting to tell a more complicated story. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension: Front-end yields repricing “higher for longer” Real-time US recession risks — contained A divergence in consumer confidence (US vs Europe) Tighter credit conditions in the euro area An intensifying semiconductor price boom And AI beginning to reshape labour markets The takeaway? Markets may be holding up — but the underlying macro is becoming more finely balanced.
#143
April 23 · 11 min
Risks Build, Markets Shrug
Financial markets have remained strikingly calm in recent weeks — despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a softening macro narrative, and elevated uncertainty. Volatility is subdued. Financial stress indicators are benign. Equities, for now, are choosing to look through both the conflict and the weaker data. That resilience feels… notable. Because beneath the surface, the macro backdrop is becoming more nuanced — and arguably more fragile. In this week’s charts, we dig into the tension between market calm and macro reality: • The IMF’s latest global outlook — and what it says about the direction of travel • Financial stress gauges — still quiet, but for how long? • Growth and inflation surprises vs. market volatility — a widening disconnect • Inflation nowcasts — early signals on where prices are heading next • Energy pass-through — the lingering impact of recent shocks • Germany’s ZEW survey — sentiment at the heart of Europe
#142
April 9 · 11 min
From Oil Shock to Policy Dilemma
Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have triggered a relief rally across financial markets—equities higher, yields retracing, volatility easing. But beneath the surface, the macro story is far from settled. In our Charts of the Week, we explore how the shock is beginning to ripple through markets, policy expectations and the real economy: • Global growth and inflation surprises • Shifting monetary policy expectations • Energy shocks and central bank reaction functions • Real yields vs inflation expectations • Diverging electricity prices • Structural differences in energy capacity
#141
March 26 · 11 min
A Supply-Constrained World Comes into Sharper Focus
Markets may be taking some comfort from tentative de-escalation signals in the Middle East, but the economic aftershocks are still working their way through—via energy prices, supply chains and heightened geopolitical risk. This week’s charts focus on: • The global business cycle — momentum vs resilience • Elevated (and increasingly structural) uncertainty • Renewed supply chain stress • A more complex and uncertain policy backdrop • Questions around monetary policy credibility • Oil prices vs still-anchored inflation expectations A global economy that’s still running—but more fragile, more supply-driven, and harder to manage.
#140
March 19 · 10 min
Energy Shock — Early Signals, Uncertain Fallout
The sharp escalation in Middle East tensions is already reverberating through global markets — pushing energy prices higher, exposing the world economy’s deep reliance on fossil fuels, and prompting a rethink of how far and how fast central banks can ease. In this week’s charts, we unpack the macro implications through: Geopolitical risk dynamics The global energy mix Energy use and real oil prices Short-end bond yield repricing European sentiment China’s investment pulse Still early days — but the direction of travel is becoming clearer.

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