Macro Pulse

Haver Analytics

Haver Analytics is the premier provider of global economic and financial data, delivering timely and accurate time series data to a wide range of clients, including central banks, government agencies, financial institutions, and academic institutions. Founded in 1969, Haver is a privately held company headquartered in New York City with offices around the world.

Haver Analytics also offers a variety of other products and services, including:

• Data visualization and analysis tools
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27 episodes
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English

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#166
Thursday · 14 min
The Narrow Boom
Markets spent the past week doubting the proposition that has carried them all year. Technology stocks fell, bonds caught a defensive bid — none of it about the macro data, which if anything improved. In our charts this week: → Blue Chip: growth up almost everywhere, inflation down → US trend growth marked up — back to where it sat a decade ago → US construction: data centres rising, everything else falling faster → Chips now dominate Chinese exports. Solar has collapsed → China’s surplus with the EU widens. Europe sells no more → What European firms use AI for: words and pictures
#165
October 8 · 15 min
The Political Premium
US equities pushed to fresh highs again this week, the dollar is firmer than it was a month ago and gold sits some way below its late-August peak. Capital is being pulled towards American investment rather than away from risk. In our charts this week: → US hiring has slowed, but so has the bar it must clear → French spreads now wider than Italy's → Political stability has tracked living standards since 2019 → America's yield rise is real, Europe's is inflation compensation → Supply chain pressure back at 2022 levels → One economy holding the global expansion up
#164
October 1 · 15 min
A Benign Phase
Bond markets are pricing a tightening cycle. Equity markets are arguably pricing a productivity boom. Both can't be right for long. This week's Charts of the Week looks at why the current combination is so unusual — and what would end it. → Policy rates expected higher in every major economy → AI hiring spreading well beyond the US → Output accelerating, core inflation still falling → The global capex cycle has turned → Pay growth has halved while unemployment barely moved → Power costs climbing where the data centres are
#163
September 24 · 16 min
Narrow Shoulders
The world economy has absorbed six months of disrupted energy supply with far less damage than it could have. The reasons why are arguably narrower than they look. In our charts this week: Delivery times lengthening, freight rates climbing Growth upgrades went almost entirely to the chip exporters Record drawdown in global oil stocks Three commodity shocks, three unrelated causes US labour demand steady, UK still falling France now trades wider than Italy
#162
September 17 · 15 min
The Price of Money
Energy and the cost of money set the tone this week. Crude held above $100, the ten-year Treasury yield pushed through 5 per cent, and the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023. But the tightening is not coming from corporate borrowing, and the week's data from Britain, China and Korea point to very different pressures again. In our charts this week: Futures now price above the Fed's own path US companies are funding investment from cash Blue Chip marks growth up, inflation down UK pay growth and vacancies keep falling China's investment slump Korean chips are nearly half of all exports
#161
September 10 · 10 min
The Reflationary Turn
The global economy is tilting back towards reflation: growth is firming while inflation proves stubborn, just as a cluster of central banks prepare to meet. This week in six charts: → Global growth surprises have lately been positive and inflation surprises negative — a supportive mix for equities. → Policy uncertainty has eased, but remains high. → Most major economies now sit on the reflationary side of the cycle. → Supply-chain pressure is building again, pointing to firmer producer prices. → The Phillips curve has re-steepened across advanced economies. → The climb in bond yields is being driven by real rates, not inflation expectations.
#160
September 3 · 13 min
The Turn Towards Tightening
Central banks set the tone this week. After Warsh's first Jackson Hole address, and with the ECB expected to move again, the monetary tide is turning towards tightening — even as growth slows. The week in six charts: → Forecasters expect higher rates in most major economies → Shipping and supply-chain costs are rising again → Price pressure is re-emerging at the factory gate → US labour demand is shifting to where workers are scarcest. → G10 core inflation is already near target. → The real cost of capital has decisively turned.
#159
August 26 · 11 min
Resilient growth, restless yields
The real economy has refused to buckle. Through a year of tariffs, conflict and tighter money, global growth has held up — and firmer growth has sat naturally alongside higher yields. Indeed, what stands out is why those yields are climbing: almost entirely the real rate and behind it the deeper question of who is now willing to fund America's debt. This week's six charts: 🔹 Global GDP held near its long-run pace in Q2 🔹 August flash PMIs confirm it — helped by industry 🔹 South Korea's chip exports go near-vertical 🔹 The yield climb is being led by the real component 🔹 The world funds a shrinking share of US debt 🔹 Surplus nations turn to gold
#158
August 20 · 20 min
The Cost of Capital Climbs
In this week’s podcast, Andy talks with Sharmila Whelan from Westbourne Research. Long-term interest rates are back near two-decade highs. The short end has eased as soft US data pare back Fed tightening bets, but the long end keeps climbing on deeper, structural forces. Many of this week’s charts set out what they are. US data soften, short-end yields ease Japan leans on exports, not domestic demand Defence spending climbs across Europe Corporates turn from savers to borrowers The saving glut remains concentrated in China US productivity growth (TFP) slips into negative territory
#157
August 12 · 14 min
AI for Macro: Context is Everything
In this episode, Andy Cates is joined by Daniel Jerrett, PhD — founder of SmartMacro Labs and Haver's official training partner — to get past the noise around AI and ask what the technology actually changes for economists and investment teams. They discuss why most teams are stuck in a prompt loop with a ceiling, what separates a chat window from a genuine macro research system (persistence, context engineering, and a trusted data source), how MCP lets models pull Haver data directly, and where human judgment still matters most. Daniel also previews his hands-on workshop, where participants build a working AI research system inside Claude in a single day.
#156
August 6 · 12 min
A Resilient World Economy, and its Price
The global economy has held up better than a noisy summer might suggest, with tensions in the Middle East, intervention to steady the yen, and nerves over AI spending all unsettling sentiment — yet the data have stayed firm and the pressure on interest rates has been upward, not down. In this week's publication we look at why the world economy is proving so resilient, and at the rising cost — in both capital and resources — of the investment boom now under way: Global activity has climbed back above its normal trend. Policy-rate expectations have been marked up across almost every major economy. The neutral rate is now higher than in 2019 in every advanced economy. The rise is led mainly by the swelling supply of government debt. Banks have stopped tightening — the investment boom is funded from profits, not debt. The real copper price sits close to a multi-decade high.
#155
July 30 · 11 min
The Price of an Investment Boom
The Federal Reserve held rates again this week, but the more consequential story is the investment cycle now lifting the real cost of capital — and whether all that spending will pay off. This week's charts trace it from the Fed to the physical constraints that will decide the outcome: Fed holds a fifth time, but on a divided vote Real yields at a two-decade high — driven by growth, not inflation July flash PMIs show a manufacturing-led upturn G4 manufacturing orders have turned firmly higher The equity–bond correlations that broke in 2022 have reverted Baltic energy freight surges while dry bulk stays calm
#154
July 22 · 9 min
Freight: The Signal Markets Miss
Freight markets can offer a timely window into global trade, demand and economic activity—but their signals are often overlooked. Nadia Mirza of the Baltic Exchange joins Haver Analytics Senior Economist Andy Cates to discuss the Baltic’s role in global freight markets, the data and benchmarks it produces, and the new BALTIC database available through Haver Analytics.
#153
July 9 · 12 min
Growth Holds Firm
Global growth continues to hold up well, but this week's data flag a few fresh risks on the inflation and geopolitical front. In our charts this week: Global equity markets remain resilient Global PMIs point to a solid expansion US growth, not inflation, is keeping bond yields elevated Supply chains eased in June, but this week’s Middle East flare-up threatens that Extreme heat across Europe is a fresh supply-side risk AI investment’s highs in 2025
#152
July 2 · 15 min
Forecasters Hold Firm
Oil prices are lower, the US-Iran memorandum is holding, and this week's euro area flash CPI came in below expectations. The near-term inflation picture is improving. But professional forecasters have barely moved their rate calls.
#151
June 25 · 9 min
Calmer Waters, New Currents
Oil is lower, Hormuz traffic is recovering, and the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets since March is unwinding. But calmer waters shouldn't be confused with resolved ones. Beneath the surface, some important new currents are running. In our charts this week: Equity market momentum and global growth surprises — a shifting picture Oil and US two-year yields have decoupled — the Fed under Warsh isn't following crude lower June flash PMIs: supply chain stress easing, manufacturing price pressures softening Hormuz shipping traffic recovering — direction matters even if levels remain depressed South Korea exports, including semis, flagging a modest loss of momentum Super El Niño building — the SOI is drifting negative, and history shows what that means for Asian rice supply
#150
June 18 · 7 min
Between Relief and Reality
The US-Iran MoU has delivered a genuine moment of geopolitical relief — oil lower, yields down, risk assets recovering. But relief is not the same as resolution. Beneath the headlines, the underlying data continue to tell a more complex story. In our charts this week: US growth outperformance widens; Europe and China disappoint UK gilt yields, oil prices and the Bank of England's next move Global semiconductor sales surge to record highs on AI demand Oil retreats on the MoU; copper, uranium and critical minerals hold firm Energy availability as a binding constraint on growth Why this investment boom looks different from the late 1990s
#149
June 11 · 11 min
Inflation at the Crossroads
The global macro backdrop has grown more unsettled. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report has pushed back Fed easing expectations, a tech sell-off has rattled sentiment, and Middle East instability continues to keep energy markets on edge. In our latest Charts of the Week we examine: GDP growth forecasts: broad deterioration, with Taiwan the striking exception Why 2027 inflation forecasts are now drifting above target The reassuring signal from US unit labour costs Renewed supply chain stress and the PPI pipeline Energy costs as a structural constraint, not an exceptional shock China's quiet trade normalisation with the US The key question is whether the current energy shock proves more persistent than even the already-cautious consensus currently assumes.
#148
June 4 · 10 min
Inflation Fears, AI Cheers
The global macro backdrop continues to evolve in ways that would have surprised many investors at the start of the year. Expectations of widespread monetary easing have steadily receded as inflation has proven more persistent and economic activity more resilient than anticipated. In our charts this week we examine: The growing bias toward monetary policy tightening Firming US labour demand Supply side inflation risks Ebbing US tariff pressures South Korea’s semiconductor boom Equity capital flows across Asia Together, these charts highlight a world economy that remains surprisingly resilient, while raising important questions about the outlook for inflation, interest rates, and global investment trends.
#147
May 28 · 10 min
The AI Boom Meets Inflation Angst
Markets have remained relatively resilient as oil prices soften on renewed hopes surrounding the US-Iran negotiations. But beneath the surface, the macro backdrop remains fragile. In our charts this week: • Europe remains vulnerable to higher energy prices • US consumer confidence continues to weaken • Not yet close to the pandemic-era liquidity shock • Broad money growth remains subdued • AI infrastructure investment continues to surge • Semiconductor demand still powering ahead The global economy remains caught between two powerful and competing forces: renewed geopolitical and energy-related inflation risks on one side and a historic AI-driven investment and infrastructure boom on the other.

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