A Benign Phase

Bond markets are pricing a tightening cycle. Equity markets are arguably pricing a productivity boom. Both can't be right for long. This week's Charts of the Week looks at why the current combination is so unusual — and what would end it. → Policy rates expected higher in every major economy → AI hiring spreading well beyond the US → Output accelerating, core inflation still falling → The global capex cycle has turned → Pay growth has halved while unemployment barely moved → Power costs climbing where the data centres are