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Macro Pulse · June 11 · 11 min

Inflation at the Crossroads

The global macro backdrop has grown more unsettled. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report has pushed back Fed easing expectations, a tech sell-off has rattled sentiment, and Middle East instability continues to keep energy markets on edge. In our latest Charts of the Week we examine: GDP growth forecasts: broad deterioration, with Taiwan the striking exception Why 2027 inflation forecasts are now drifting above target The reassuring signal from US unit labour costs Renewed supply chain stress and the PPI pipeline Energy costs as a structural constraint, not an exceptional shock China's quiet trade normalisation with the US The key question is whether the current energy shock proves more persistent than even the already-cautious consensus currently assumes.

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The global macro backdrop has grown more unsettled. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report has pushed back Fed easing expectations, a tech sell-off has rattled sentiment, and Middle East instability continues to keep energy markets on edge. In our latest Charts of the Week we examine:

 

  • GDP growth forecasts: broad deterioration, with Taiwan the striking exception
  • Why 2027 inflation forecasts are now drifting above target
  • The reassuring signal from US unit labour costs
  • Renewed supply chain stress and the PPI pipeline
  • Energy costs as a structural constraint, not an exceptional shock
  • China's quiet trade normalisation with the US

 

The key question is whether the current energy shock proves more persistent than even the already-cautious consensus currently assumes.

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