Between Relief and Reality

The US-Iran MoU has delivered a genuine moment of geopolitical relief — oil lower, yields down, risk assets recovering. But relief is not the same as resolution. Beneath the headlines, the underlying data continue to tell a more complex story. In our charts this week: US growth outperformance widens; Europe and China disappoint UK gilt yields, oil prices and the Bank of England's next move Global semiconductor sales surge to record highs on AI demand Oil retreats on the MoU; copper, uranium and critical minerals hold firm Energy availability as a binding constraint on growth Why this investment boom looks different from the late 1990s