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Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Colton Thomas

⚡ Charged Alpha — The S&P 500 Stock Encyclopedia Data-driven deep dives into every stock in the S&P 500 after every earnings report. Each episode breaks down one company from open to close: what they do, how the numbers look, what Wall Street thinks, the bull case, the bear case. 🛠️ Check out our free beginner-friendly screening tools for stocks, ETFs, options, crypto, bonds, REITs & more at https://chargedalpha.com — no signup, no paywall. 📊 What you get in every episode: Company overview & competitive moat Full financial breakdown — valuation, revenue, margins, cash flow Analyst consensus & price targets Bull case vs. bear case Peer comparison, options flow & insider activity Key metrics to watch ⚠️ Not financial advice. For educational purposes only. Episodes are researched, written, and produced using AI-assisted tools. All data aggregated from publicly available sources. #stocks #investing #S&P500 #stockanalysis #chargedalpha #financialdata #earningsreport #earnings

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  • August 18 · 14 min

    OCTV Stock Q2 2026: Octave Intelligence - The $2.1B Write-Down Its Own Stock Caused

    Octave Intelligence plc (OCTV) Q2 2026 — Octave issued the release at 13:00 CEST (07:00am ET) on Wednesday August 12 and held the call at 8:00am ET, so August 12 was the reaction session. The shares OPENED at USD16.66 against a USD19.72 prior close - down 15.5 pct and the low of the day - then were bought back all session to close USD19.08, only 3.25 pct lower, on 7,793,542 shares (6.9x the 20-session average). By August 17 they were USD18.02. Octave Intelligence is the industrial software business Hexagon AB spun off on May 22 2026 - design, build, operate and protect software for asset-intensive industries and the public sector, run from Madison, Alabama. Q2 revenue was USD398.4M, down 3.6 pct, with ARR of USD1,143M up 7 pct, free cash flow of USD93.5M up 7.6 pct, and adjusted EPS of USD0.36 against a USD0.30 bar. It also booked USD2,134.7M of non-cash impairment charges. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE ACCOUNTANTS, THE MARKET AND THE MODEL ALL AGREE) — base-case value ~$19.60 vs ~$18.02 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD19.60 against the USD18.02 close, +8.8 pct. Bear USD16.22 / base USD19.39 / bull USD24.41, weighted 25/55/20 on FY27 free cash flow of USD345M discounted at 9.25 pct over five years, fading to 2.25 pct. - THE ANGLE: the write-down that the share price wrote. The 10-Q says the interim goodwill test was triggered because market capitalisation had fallen below carrying value - the accounting followed the tape, not the business. - THE CHARGE: USD2,134.7M total - USD1,671.0M of goodwill plus USD463.7M of trademarks, 5.4x a quarter of revenue. 100 pct NON-CASH, added straight back in the cash-flow statement. Goodwill fell USD6,221M to USD4,555M. - IT DID NOT CLOSE THE GAP: even after the charge, equity of USD5,080M sat USD704M ABOVE the June 30 market value of USD4,376M - the filing calls that a reasonable control premium. Book is USD18.92 a share; the stock is USD18.02. - THE EPS BASIS: GAAP EPS was USD(7.34); ADJUSTED EPS was USD0.36 against USD0.30 modelled, a 20 pct BEAT and FLAT on last year. Proved: H1 adjusted USD0.69 less Q2 USD0.36 = USD0.33, exactly the vendors' Q1 row. - WHAT ACTUALLY DETERIORATED: United States revenue fell 12.1 pct to USD151.2M, perpetual licences 23.3 pct and services 19.5 pct, and adjusted operating margin went 31 pct to 29 pct with Q3 guided to about 27 pct. SaaS grew 22.9 pct. - THE BALANCE SHEET: USD304.1M cash against USD646.0M of brand-new borrowings, drawn to fund a USD625.0M cash payment to Hexagon at the spin. Net debt USD341.9M against a 3.5x covenant. Tangible book value is MINUS USD636.9M. What to watch: UP: market capitalisation back above carrying value at September 30, which retires the impairment trigger; or the perpetual licence and services lines stabilising so reported growth converges on the 7 pct recurring rate. DOWN: a Q3 adjusted operating margin below the ~27 pct guide, another leg down in US revenue after the 12.1 pct fall, or a second goodwill test against the USD4,555M still carried. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

  • August 18 · 14 min

    CLBT Stock Q2 2026: Cellebrite Earnings - $15M Of ARR, $1.1B Of Market Value

    Cellebrite DI Ltd (CLBT) Q2 2026 — Cellebrite is a foreign private issuer and files 6-K, not 8-K. The results 6-K cleared EDGAR at 11:15am ET on Thursday August 13 - BEFORE the open, so August 13 itself was the reaction session: the shares opened USD10.32 against a USD15.25 prior close, traded as low as USD9.58 and closed USD10.80. That is minus 29.18 pct on 36,750,400 shares, 30.9x the 20-session average. By August 17 they were USD10.44. Cellebrite DI is the Israeli digital-forensics company whose software is used by more than 7,000 law-enforcement, defence and intelligence agencies. Q2 revenue was USD131.138M, up 15.8 pct, with annual recurring revenue of USD507.8M, up 21 pct, non-GAAP gross margin of 85.5 pct and USD545.7M of net cash against no borrowings. The shares fell 29.18 pct on the print. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE CRASH REMOVED AN OVER-VALUATION, IT DID NOT CREATE ONE) — base-case value ~$9.44 vs ~$10.44 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD9.44 against the USD10.44 close, minus 9.5 pct. Bear USD5.27 / base USD9.48 / bull USD13.53, weighted 25/50/25 on owner earnings of USD83.2M discounted over five years at 10 pct. - THE ANGLE: USD15M of ARR, USD1.1bn of market value. Cellebrite cut its full-year recurring-revenue target from a USD570M midpoint to USD555M. The equity lost USD1,125M the same session - about USD75 of market value per USD1 of ARR removed. - THE DECOMPOSITION: at the 5.81x forward ARR multiple the market paid on August 12, a USD15M cut is worth USD87M - 7.7 pct of the fall. The other USD1,038M, or 92.3 pct, is pure multiple compression: 5.81x down to 3.94x forward ARR. - THE EPS MISS DOES NOT EXIST: the Street bar is non-GAAP. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was USD0.11 against about USD0.07 modelled - a BEAT. Revenue of USD131.138M missed by 0.3 pct. Comparing GAAP USD0.0252 to that bar manufactures a fake miss. - WHAT ACTUALLY BROKE: ARR of USD507.8M missed Cellebrite's OWN May 14 guide of USD510-513M by 0.7 pct, and consensus of USD512.1M. Guided second-half net new ARR of USD47.2M is 23.7 pct below the USD61.9M added in the second half of 2025. - THE GAAP FALL IS NOT OPERATING: net income fell USD13.105M year on year - USD7.468M operating, USD2.136M lower interest income, USD3.501M tax. Last year's 6.3 pct effective tax rate was the anomaly against 43.0 pct now. - THE SOFT LINE IS CASH: quarterly free cash flow was USD14.521M against USD28.975M, a margin of 11.1 pct against 25.6 pct. The release leads with a trailing-twelve-month 28.0 pct instead. Backlog fell 8.7 pct since December to USD370.4M. What to watch: UP: third-quarter ARR printing at the top of the USD524-528M guide, which would weaken the deceleration case in a single quarter; or the equity-compensation run rate holding flat at USD61M while revenue compounds. DOWN: another sequential fall in remaining performance obligations after the 8.7 pct decline since December, or an ARR print starting with a four. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

  • August 18 · 13 min

    SEPN Stock Q2 2026: Septerna Earnings - The Market Paid 23 pct For A Half-Life

    Septerna (SEPN) Q2 2026 — The 8-K cleared EDGAR at 4:03pm ET on August 10, AFTER the close, so Tuesday August 11 was the reaction session: the shares opened only +1.85 pct at USD39.57, traded as low as USD38.62, then were bought all day to close +22.93 pct at USD47.76 on 2.91x average volume. USD44.50 on August 14. Septerna is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing oral small molecule drugs against G protein-coupled receptors, listed on the Nasdaq in October 2024. The June quarter beat on both lines: revenue USD26.7M against a USD19.2M bar, loss per share USD0.29 against USD0.426. But 54.6 pct of that revenue is amortisation of a Novo Nordisk upfront paid in July 2025, 41.9 pct is fully reimbursed research services, and only 3.4 pct is newly earned. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - THE MARKET PAID 23 PCT FOR A PHARMACOKINETIC PARAMETER) — base-case value ~$31.92 vs ~$44.50 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD31.92 vs the USD44.50 close, -28.3 pct. Bear USD20.89 / base USD29.46 / bull USD42.31, weighted 50/25/25 across ONE model in which only the SEP-479 probability of success moves: 20 pct ours, 13 pct the industry base rate, 50 pct Stifel's own published figure. - THE PRINT: revenue USD26.7M vs USD19.2M expected, a 39.1 pct beat. Loss per share USD0.29 against a USD0.426 bar. R&D USD35.1M vs USD22.2M, G&A USD8.5M vs USD6.9M, operating loss USD16.8M. Net loss USD13.0M against USD24.8M a year earlier, helped by USD4.8M of interest income. - THE EPS BASIS, PROVEN: Q1 USD0.19 loss plus Q2 USD0.29 equals the filed six-month USD0.48 exactly, so the vendor epsActual series is GAAP. Basic and diluted are identical - 6,071,300 dilutive securities were anti-dilutive. FMP did NOT double-count the collaboration revenue. - THE REVENUE IS A SCHEDULE: Note 3 splits the USD26.7M three ways. USD14.6M is amortisation of Novo Nordisk's USD195.0M upfront, USD11.2M is research services Novo reimburses at 100 pct, USD0.9M is milestones. Only 3.4 pct is newly earned. USD140.4M of deferred revenue remains. - WHAT ACTUALLY MOVED IT: the observed elimination half-life of SEP-479 is approximately three to four days, which the company says supports once-daily oral dosing. The same release extended MAD dosing to 14 days and pushed Phase 1 SAD/MAD data to Q1 2027. SEP-631's planned Phase 2b in urticaria was dropped. - CASH IS NOT THE ISSUE: USD516.5M of cash, equivalents and marketable securities at June 30, plus USD33.7M net from the July ATM. Operating outflow USD22.2M in the quarter and USD47.8M in the half. No financial debt - the USD22.5M a screener shows is an operating lease. Runway guided at least into 2029. - THE STREET: 5 dated targets, all bullish, averaging USD50.60 (USD43-USD60). H.C. Wainwright USD60 Aug 12, Guggenheim USD51 Aug 11, Wells Fargo USD50 Aug 12, Stifel USD49 Aug 11, Truist USD43 Jul 1. We sit 36.9 pct below. The tape requires a 55.1 pct probability of success - above Stifel's 50 pct. What to watch: UP: a clean fourteen-day multiple-ascending-dose readout in Q1 2027 showing calcium control with no bilirubin signal, which lifts our 20 pct probability of success materially - every ten points is USD4.28 a share. Also a named, dated trial for SEP-631 in a mast-cell indication. DOWN: any unconjugated bilirubin signal in the extended cohorts, the event that ended SEP-786 on February 18 2025, which takes the model to USD20.89. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

  • August 17 · 14 min

    QNT Stock Q2 2026: Quantinuum Earnings - The Bull Case Is Already The Price

    Quantinuum Inc (QNT) Q2 2026 — The results 8-K cleared EDGAR at 8:11pm ET on Monday August 11 - well AFTER the close, so Tuesday August 12 was the reaction session: the shares opened USD59.65 against a USD56.06 prior close, traded as high as USD72.40 and closed USD71.74. That is plus 27.97 pct on 4,584,200 shares, 3.45x the 20-session average, and it never traded back below Monday's close. By August 17 they were USD66.01. Quantinuum is the trapped-ion quantum computing company spun out of Honeywell. It priced its IPO at USD60.00 on June 5, 2026, so this is the FIRST quarter it has ever reported to a public market. Q2 revenue was USD7.998M, up 279.4 pct against a USD2.108M base quarter, with adjusted gross margin at 61.7 pct and USD2.107bn of cash against no debt. The shares rose 27.97 pct on the print. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A REAL COMPANY, AT THE PRICE OF A CERTAINTY) — base-case value ~$26.56 vs ~$66.01 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD26.56 against the USD66.01 close, minus 59.8 pct. Bear USD5.87 / base USD18.59 / bull USD65.71, weighted 30/45/25 across three 2030 revenue outcomes, each at a terminal sales multiple and discounted 4.5 years at 15 pct. - THE ANGLE: the bull case IS the price. Take the lowest target on the Street - Morgan Stanley's, at USD78 - and its own published model of 12x USD2.5bn of 2030 revenue. Discount that to TODAY instead of to 2027 and it is USD65.71 a share. The stock closed USD66.01. - WHAT THE PRICE ASSUMES: USD263.3M as-converted shares at USD66.01 is a USD17.38bn market value, less USD2.107bn of cash equals USD15.27bn of enterprise value. That is 509x the USD28-32M of revenue the company guides to for all of 2026. - THE SANITY CHECK: justifying today's enterprise value at 12x terminal sales needs USD2,387M of 2030 revenue - 164 pct growth a year for 4.5 years. BCG sizes the ENTIRE 2030 quantum provider market at USD1-2bn; BCC Research says USD7.3bn. - THE LOSS IS NOT WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE: GAAP net loss was USD596.520M, but USD464.587M is equity compensation vesting at the listing and USD47.615M is a non-cash warrant mark. 87.7 pct is non-cash or one-off. Adjusted EBITDA was minus USD68.310M. - THE COMP CUTS BOTH WAYS: revenue grew 279 pct off a USD2.108M trough, yet SIX-MONTH revenue FELL 37.6 pct, USD13.235M vs USD21.193M. Strip 2025's one-off USD16.526M lease sale and the recurring line is up 167 pct - that is the real number. - THE GUIDANCE NOBODY QUOTES: first formal guidance is USD28-32M, a USD30.0M midpoint against FY2025 revenue of USD30.931M. Flat to down on the total; roughly double the FY2025 recurring line of USD14.780M; and only 29 pct above FY2024's USD23.256M. What to watch: UP: a 2027 revenue range starting with a six or a seven rather than a three or a four, which moves the base case onto a different track entirely; or the Sol machine landing on schedule in 2027, which raises the odds on Apollo in 2029 where all the value sits. DOWN: contracted backlog converting slower than the 39.6 pct of USD74.2M the company schedules for the next twelve months, or any slip in the Apollo date. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

  • August 17 · 13 min

    WRD Stock Q2 2026: WeRide Earnings - Revenue Doubled, The Loss Did Not

    WeRide Inc. (WRD) Q2 2026 — The results 6-K cleared EDGAR at 9:22am ET on August 12 - eight minutes BEFORE the open, so Wednesday August 12 was itself the reaction session: the shares opened USD6.27 against a USD6.33 prior close, were sold all day, traded as low as USD5.64, and closed USD5.72. That is minus 9.64 pct on 11,169,549 ADSs, 4.16x the 63-session average. By August 17 they were USD6.08. WeRide is a Guangzhou-based, Cayman-incorporated autonomous driving company listed on both Nasdaq and the Hong Kong exchange, and it calls itself the first publicly traded robotaxi company. It reports in renminbi under IFRS and files 6-K and 20-F, not 10-Q. Q2 2026 revenue rose 82.2 pct to RMB231.717M with gross margin at 37.5 pct - and the quarterly loss barely moved. The ADSs fell 9.64 pct on the print. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - REAL GROWTH, ALREADY IN THE PRICE) — base-case value ~$5.98 vs ~$6.08 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD5.98 against the USD6.08 close, minus 1.6 pct. Bear USD3.25 / base USD6.10 / bull USD11.16, weighted 40/35/25 across 7.0x our 2027 revenue estimate, a 14 pct equity DCF that runs past the guided break-even, and 12x the 2026 revenue the Street models. - THE ANGLE: revenue rose 82.2 pct to RMB231.717M and gross profit rose 143.3 pct - and the loss for the period went RMB406.445M to RMB400.665M. It narrowed by RMB5.780M, or 1.4 pct. A full year of near-doubling revenue moved the bottom line by almost nothing. - WHY THE LOSS LOOKS FLAT: share-based compensation halved, RMB119.858M to RMB55.091M, and RMB64.270M of that RMB64.767M drop is in the administrative line alone - listing-related pay and global-offering fees rolling off. Non-cash and non-recurring. It is not operating leverage. - THE COMPANY'S OWN MEASURE GOT WORSE: non-IFRS adjusted loss, which strips exactly those items, went RMB300.558M to RMB338.453M. That is 12.6 pct WIDER year on year. Research alone was RMB434.329M - 1.87x total revenue - and it still grew 36.2 pct year on year. - THE ADS TRAP: one ADS is THREE Class A ordinary shares, not one, and the company reports in renminbi. Filed loss per ordinary share RMB0.41; per ADS RMB1.23, or USD0.18 at the company's own RMB6.7851 rate. Against a USD0.13149 bar that is a MISS of roughly 38 pct, not a beat. - THE VENDOR DATA IS DEFECTIVE: the Q2 feed row of minus USD0.18103 is per ADS, but the prior quarter's minus USD0.05507 is per ORDINARY SHARE - a threefold basis switch in adjacent rows. The filed quarters themselves foot: RMB114.140M plus RMB231.717M equals RMB345.857M. - THE CLOCK: cash, deposits and products fell RMB7,131.354M to RMB5,398.520M in six months - the company prints minus 24.3 pct itself - while also drawing RMB160.784M more bank debt. That is about 6.2 quarters of runway against a guided 2029 full-year break-even. What to watch: UP: the driver-assistance line reaching the 100,000 cumulative installations management targets for year end, against roughly 30,000 shipped in this quarter alone, or gross margin holding above 35 pct for another quarter. Either re-rates the sales multiple. DOWN: a quarterly cash draw that stays near RMB866M, which turns a funding question into a financing event well before the guided 2029 break-even. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

  • August 17 · 14 min

    HAWK Stock Q2 2026: HawkEye 360 Earnings - The EPS Beat Was An IPO Artifact

    HawkEye 360 (HAWK) Q2 2026 — The 8-K cleared EDGAR at 4:05pm ET on August 13 - AFTER the close, so Friday August 14 was the reaction session: the shares opened minus 1.5 pct at USD24.00, fell as low as USD21.52 (minus 11.7 pct), and closed USD22.78, minus 6.52 pct, on 1.7M shares against a 1.29M average since listing. HawkEye 360 flies over 30 satellites that geolocate radio-frequency emitters and sells the intelligence to governments. It listed on the NYSE in May 2026, so this was only its second quarter public. Revenue was USD49.81M, up 87 pct, and the loss per share was USD0.07 against a USD0.1075 bar. But the press release and the 10-Q, filed on consecutive days, describe two different quarters. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A REAL BUSINESS ON AN IPO-FLATTERED QUARTER) — base-case value ~$15.47 vs ~$23.16 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD15.47 vs the USD23.16 close, minus 33.2 pct. Bear USD11.57 / base USD18.14 / bull USD25.55, weighted 40/35/25 across 5.0x 2028 consensus revenue, a discounted cash flow at 11.5 pct, and 20x 2028 consensus Adjusted EBITDA, on 97,965,552 shares. - THE EPS BRIDGE: the filed net loss was USD15.278M. A POSITIVE USD10.925M preferred stock dividend line - the reversal of accrued dividends when USD465.7M of preferred converted at the IPO - cut the loss to common to USD4.353M. Over 61,924,756 weighted shares that is USD0.07. - THE DENOMINATOR: 61,924,756 weighted shares against 97,960,719 actually outstanding on June 30, because the IPO closed May 8, mid-quarter. The same USD15.278M loss over the real share count is USD0.156. Next quarter the denominator has to rise 58.2 pct with no credit left. - THE GROWTH: revenue USD49.810M, up 87.1 pct as printed. But the 10-Q Note 3 pro forma restates Q2 2025 at USD41.632M including the December 2025 ISA acquisition - growth of 19.6 pct. Sequentially, USD49.798M became USD49.810M: plus 0.02 pct. International rose 0.8 pct QoQ. - THE BACKLOG: the release headlines USD292.2M of confirmed backlog, a management-defined term. The GAAP remaining performance obligation in the 10-Q is USD105.3M - and USD100.0M of that is ONE agreement to 2032 at USD5.0M a quarter starting Q2 2027. Next twelve months: USD8.291M. - THE CASH FLOW: free cash flow was plus USD5.389M on USD6.240M of cash capex. But gross satellites and equipment went USD199.215M to USD232.473M in the half - USD33.258M of additions on USD10.295M of cash capex. USD20.922M was a non-cash reclassification of prepaid deposits. - THE LOCK-UP: Item 8.01 of the same 8-K moved the release forward. The 180-day period ends November 2, inside a blackout, so the early-termination clause fires and 79.6M shares - 81 pct of the company - are free to trade September 2, against a float of 18.4M shares, or 18.8 pct. What to watch: UP: September-quarter revenue landing at the USD57.1M the Street already models, roughly 15 pct sequential growth, which puts HawkEye back on the full-year guidance path. Also a second sovereign award of the size already won. DOWN: a back half that misses the USD215-220M guide, into a float that quintuples on September 2 when the lock-up releases. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

  • August 17 · 13 min

    HTHT Stock Q2 2026: H World Group Earnings - Fees Up 25 Pct, Same-Hotel RevPAR Down 3 Pct

    H World Group (HTHT) Q2 2026 — The 6-K cleared EDGAR at 6:30am ET on August 17, with the call at 7:00am - BEFORE the open, so August 17 was the reaction session itself: the ADSs opened plus 8.66 pct at USD45.51, ran to USD46.73, never traded below Friday's USD41.88 close, and finished plus 11.37 pct at USD46.64 on 2.2x volume. H World Group is the largest hotel operator in China - Hanting, JI, Orange, plus the Steigenberger brands abroad - with 13,539 hotels and 1,335,445 rooms at June 30. June-quarter revenue was RMB7,121m, up 10.8 pct, and adjusted earnings USD0.78 per ADS against a USD0.74 bar. But same-hotel RevPAR, for every China hotel open at least 18 months, FELL 3.0 pct to RMB233. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, MEDIUM - A FEE BUSINESS PRICED LIKE A HOTEL OWNER) — base-case value ~$55.38 vs ~$46.64 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: BUY, 3/5. Fair value USD55.38 per ADS vs the USD46.64 close, plus 18.7 pct. Bear USD42.47 / base USD55.38 / bull USD72.18, weighted 50/30/20 across a ten-year cash flow discount at 12.0 pct, 11x 2026 adjusted EBITDA and 21x adjusted earnings, on 316.1M ADSs. - THE PRINT: revenue RMB7,121m, up 10.8 pct, about USD1,050m at the filing rate. Manachised and franchised fee revenue RMB3,586m, up 25.2 pct. Leased and owned revenue RMB3,233m, DOWN 4.9 pct by design. Operating margin 31.1 pct against 27.8 pct. Adjusted EBITDA RMB2,725m, up 20.0 pct. - THE EPS BASIS, PROVEN: the USD0.78 is ADJUSTED diluted per ADS, not GAAP. The filing prints RMB5.29, and 5.29 divided by the company's own RMB6.7851 rate is 0.7796. GAAP diluted was RMB4.87, or USD0.72 - a miss on that line. Q1 RMB3.36 plus Q2 RMB5.29 foots to the filed half of RMB8.65. - THE ANGLE: same-hotel RevPAR, every China hotel open at least 18 months, fell 3.0 pct to RMB233 from RMB240, on a flat room rate and occupancy down 2.4 points. The blended figure the release leads with rose 1.1 pct - but that blend includes hotels opened inside eighteen months. - WHY GAAP LOOKED FLAT: net income attributable rose only 2.1 pct to RMB1,577m and GAAP EPS per ADS was RMB4.87 against RMB4.85. One line explains it: currency gains were RMB366m a year ago and RMB49m this year, a RMB317m non-cash swing. Strip it and adjusted net income rose 26.9 pct. - THE GUIDANCE ARITHMETIC: full-year revenue growth was RAISED to 4-8 pct from 2-6 pct. But the first half already grew 11.0 pct. Against FY2025 revenue of RMB25,307m and a first half of RMB11,821m, that implies second-half growth of MINUS 2.1 pct to PLUS 5.4 pct - a raise embedding a slowdown. - THE BALANCE SHEET: RMB14,249m of cash against RMB4,226m of total debt - RMB10,165m of NET cash, about USD1,498m. A USD2.5bn three-year return plan was approved the same morning, and RMB2,844m of dividend plus RMB1,857m of buyback went out in the June quarter alone. What to watch: UP: same-hotel RevPAR turning positive through the September peak quarter, or a second-half revenue print above the top of the raised 4-8 pct guidance range. DOWN: the closure rate climbing above the 35 pct of gross openings it ran at this quarter, or overseas adjusted EBITDA falling further from RMB131m. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

  • August 17 · 12 min

    FLY Stock Q2 2026: Firefly Aerospace Earnings - Record Revenue, $9.4M From Launch

    Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Q2 2026 — The 8-K cleared EDGAR at 4:08pm ET on August 11, AFTER the close, so Wednesday August 12 was the reaction session: the shares opened +1.33 pct at USD26.71, ran to USD27.74 (+5.24 pct), then gave it back and closed +0.68 pct at USD26.54 on 1.02x average volume. USD26.67 on August 14. Firefly Aerospace is a space and defense technology company that listed on the Nasdaq in August 2025. The June quarter set a revenue record: USD117.7M, up 657 pct, beating consensus by 33.4 pct, with non-GAAP loss per share of USD0.42 against a USD0.51 bar. But launch revenue inside that record was USD9.4M - 8.0 pct of the top line - and free cash burn was USD106.3M. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A RECORD QUARTER THE ROCKETS BARELY JOINED) — base-case value ~$22.89 vs ~$26.67 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD22.89 vs the USD26.67 close, -14.2 pct. Bear USD12.09 / base USD23.34 / bull USD44.27, weighted 50/30/20 across a scenario-weighted 2028 revenue multiple, 15x 2028 gross profit and 5.5x 2027 revenue, discounted at 13.0 pct to 180.0M shares. - THE PRINT: revenue USD117.7M vs USD88.2M expected, up 657 pct year on year and 45.5 pct sequentially - a 33.4 pct beat. Non-GAAP loss per share USD0.42 vs a USD0.51 bar, a USD0.09 beat. GAAP loss per share USD0.57. Adjusted EBITDA USD-61.2M against USD-47.9M a year earlier. - THE EPS BASIS, PROVEN BOTH WAYS: Q1 non-GAAP USD0.46 loss plus Q2 USD0.42 equals the filed six-month USD0.88, so the vendor epsActual series is non-GAAP. Q1 GAAP USD0.61 plus Q2 USD0.57 equals the filed USD1.18. The USD0.15 gap is the published bridge, USD24.6M exactly. - THE MIX, AND THE ANGLE: note 4 splits revenue two ways only. Launch revenue USD9.4M, up 48 pct - 8.0 pct of the record. Spacecraft Solutions USD108.3M, up 1,077 pct - and the 10-Q credits that to the inclusion of SciTec, acquired October 31 2025. Three customers are 72.1 pct of revenue. - THE MARGIN WENT BACKWARDS: gross margin 20.3 pct against 25.7 pct a year earlier, a fall of 541 basis points on revenue that grew more than sevenfold. Operating expense of USD119.1M is 101.2 pct of revenue. Stock compensation alone was USD17.0M, 14.5 pct of everything billed. - THE CASH CLOCK: free cash flow USD-106.3M in the quarter on the company's own reconciliation - USD81.6M operating burn plus USD24.7M capex. That is 90 cents out for every revenue dollar in. Cash and short-term investments USD635.3M, about 6.0 quarters, and liquidity still fell USD257.7M in the half after a USD181.6M June raise. - THE ORDER BOOK, AND WHAT IT IS WORTH: backlog USD1,468.1M at June 30, up 8.7 pct, book-to-bill 1.59x across the half. But remaining performance obligations are USD563.7M - only 38.4 pct of it - and USD403.1M is unscheduled multi-launch agreements. Enterprise value USD3,856M is 13.4x trailing revenue. What to watch: UP: a quarter where the launch line is a fifth of revenue rather than 8.0 pct, or gross margin recovering toward the 25.7 pct of a year ago, which is about USD6.4M a quarter of extra gross profit on this base. DOWN: free cash outflow holding above USD106.3M a quarter through Q4, which cuts runway under four quarters and forces a raise into weakness. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

  • August 17 · 13 min

    ESLT Stock Q2 2026: Elbit Systems Earnings - Record $32B Backlog, Stock Fell 8.3%

    Elbit Systems (ESLT) Q2 2026 — Elbit is a foreign private issuer, so Q2 2026 arrived on a Form 6-K, not an 8-K. It cleared EDGAR at 6:01am ET on August 11, BEFORE the open, so August 11 was the reaction session: the shares gapped down 5.96 pct, traded to USD760.42 and closed -8.27 pct at USD776.08 on 2.36x average volume. USD783.62 on August 14. Elbit Systems is an international defense technology group. The June quarter was excellent on every operating measure: revenue up 15.9 pct to USD2,287.1M, Non-GAAP diluted EPS USD4.14 against a USD3.69 bar, GAAP operating margin up 160bp to 9.6 pct, and a record USD32.0bn order backlog. The shares fell 8.27 pct anyway. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A FLAWLESS QUARTER AT AN UNFORGIVING PRICE) — base-case value ~$487.49 vs ~$783.62 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD487.49 vs the USD783.62 close, -37.8 pct. Bear USD313.24 / base USD487.49 / bull USD730.80, weighted 35/35/30 across an unlevered DCF at 8.5 pct, 30x our 2027 Non-GAAP EPS and 18x 2027 EBITDA. Even the bull road sits 6.7 pct under the tape. - THE PRINT: revenue USD2,287.1M vs USD2,251.5M expected, up 15.9 pct. Non-GAAP diluted EPS USD4.14 vs a USD3.69 bar, a 12.2 pct beat and 28.2 pct growth. GAAP EPS USD3.61. Gross margin 25.3 pct from 24.0, GAAP operating margin 9.6 pct from 8.0, Non-GAAP 10.4 pct from 8.9. - THE EPS BASIS, PROVEN BOTH WAYS: Q1 Non-GAAP USD3.87 plus Q2 USD4.14 equals the filed six-month USD8.01, so the vendor epsActual series is Non-GAAP. Q1 GAAP USD3.34 plus Q2 USD3.61 equals the filed USD6.95. The USD0.53 gap is the published bridge, USD25.5M exactly. - THE ORDER BOOK: USD32.0bn at June 30, an all-time record, up 34.5 pct from USD23.8bn a year earlier and 6.0 pct from USD30.2bn at March 31. That implies about USD4,087M of gross intake on USD2,287.1M of revenue - a book-to-bill near 1.8x and 3.7 years of revenue contracted. - THE TAX LINE, THE ONE THING THAT CHANGED: the effective rate went 5.6 pct to 16.4 pct on the OECD global minimum tax named in the release. That is USD25.7M more tax, about USD0.53 a diluted share - the size of the whole Non-GAAP bridge. FY2025 was 9.9 pct. Structural, not timing. - GROWTH MIX: Land +32.1 pct, ISTAR and EW +21.9, the American arm +16.5, C4I and Cyber +11.5, Aerospace -7.8 on project mix. By region Israel +27.5 pct, Asia-Pacific +22.1, North America +14.9 - and Europe FLAT at USD563.3M vs USD563.8M, though the release says the book grew mainly from Europe. - CASH: first-half operating cash flow USD517.8M, up 70.3 pct - but contract liabilities (customer advances) rose USD698.8M while receivables and contract assets rose USD834.4M, so they nearly cancel. Capex doubled to USD157.6M. Net cash USD695.4M. Trailing FCF USD681.5M, a 1.81 pct yield. What to watch: UP: a clear beat against the USD3.82 third-quarter bar on November 17 rebuilds our 2026 line and lifts every valuation road; European revenue inflecting from a flat USD563.3M confirms the order wave is converting. DOWN: book-to-bill falling toward 1.0x, or the tax rate settling above 16.4 pct. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

  • August 17 · 13 min

    TBBB Stock Q2 2026: BBB Foods Earnings - EBITDA Grew 13.8%, Or 43.8%

    BBB Foods (TBBB) Q2 2026 — BBB Foods is a foreign private issuer, so the 2Q26 release arrived on a Form 6-K, not an 8-K. It cleared EDGAR at 4:30pm ET on August 12, AFTER the close, so August 13 was the reaction session: the shares opened +8.2 pct and closed +16.31 pct at USD49.20, the highest close of the twelve-month window, on 4.4x average volume. They eased to USD47.79 on August 14. Everything is reported in Mexican pesos (Ps.) under IFRS. Tiendas 3B is Mexico's leading grocery hard discounter: 3,624 stores, 21 distribution centres and 29,202 staff. The quarter was excellent - revenue up 38.7 pct to Ps. 26,037M, same-store sales up 20.0 pct, 155 net new stores. But the release carries TWO EBITDA growth rates: 13.8 pct on the income statement, 43.8 pct excluding a Ps. 615M non-cash share-based charge. That charge is settled in real shares, and the company says so itself. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - AN EXCELLENT BUSINESS, PRICED ON A SHARE COUNT THAT IS 42 PCT TOO SMALL) — base-case value ~$39.58 vs ~$47.79 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD39.58 against the USD47.79 close, -17.2 pct. Bear USD23.37 / base USD39.58 / bull USD58.08, weighted 50/30/20 across an exit-multiple road, a free-cash-flow DCF and a sales multiple. All three roads land within a dollar of each other; the disagreement is with the share count, not the method. - THE PRINT: total revenue Ps. 26,037M, up 38.7 pct year on year, decomposing as 20.0 pct same-store sales compounded with about 15.6 pct from the wider network. Gross margin expanded 54 bps to 16.8 pct. 155 net new stores took the base to 3,624, and a new distribution centre took the logistics network to 21. - THE TWO EBITDA NUMBERS: reported EBITDA Ps. 960M, up 13.8 pct. Excluding a Ps. 615M non-cash share-based payment charge it is Ps. 1,575M, up 43.8 pct. The charge itself rose 143.8 pct. Administrative expense rose 95.3 pct, and even stripping the charge out it still rose 69.8 pct to Ps. 813M. - THE SHARE COUNT: Appendix 1 of the release gives 121,187,774 shares outstanding and, on the company's own net-settlement method run at the USD47.79 close, 164.7M fully diluted. The data vendor carries 115.9M. So market value is USD7.87bn, not the USD5.54bn a screen prints - 42 pct larger at the same share price. - THE MULTIPLE: enterprise value on the fully diluted count is Ps. 143.6bn, which is 28.8x trailing EBITDA before the charge and 1.58x sales on a 5.48 pct trailing margin. On the screen share count the same company looks like 20.8x. A third of the multiple vanishes purely because the denominator is wrong. - STORE ECONOMICS, AND THEY ARE GOOD: revenue per store reached Ps. 7.34M a quarter, up 15.8 pct from Ps. 6.34M. Stores per distribution centre FELL to 173 from 189, so logistics runs ahead of the build. Operating cash flow was Ps. 2,325M; after all capital spending and every peso of lease payment, free cash flow was Ps. 675M. - THE STREET: 14 firms cover it, 11 positive. Six published targets - UBS USD51 (Aug 4), Citigroup USD49 (Jul 31), Scotiabank USD48 (May 5), HSBC USD47 (May 27), Morgan Stanley USD46 (Jan 28), Itau BBA USD42 (Mar 13). The average is USD47.17 and NOT ONE postdates the print. The tape closed above that average on the reaction day. What to watch: UP: same-store sales holding near 20 pct for two more quarters, or the margin before the charge clearing 7 pct, which brings our USD58.08 bull case within reach of the tape. DOWN: the same-store line fading toward the mid-teens while capital keeps going out of the door, or any fresh equity grant that resets the schedule in Appendix 2 of the release. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

  • August 17 · 13 min

    EROC Stock Q2 2026: ERock Earnings - Revenue Fell 42%, Backlog Rose 10x

    ERock (EROC) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30), the first quarter reported since ERock listed on the NYSE on June 11 2026 at USD21.50. The 8-K cleared EDGAR at 4:19pm ET on August 11, AFTER the close, so August 12 IS the reaction session: it gapped up 16.62 pct and closed plus 22.84 pct on 2.56x volume. Two more sessions took it to USD16.72 - plus 48.62 pct, yet still 22.2 pct below the listing price. ERock builds utility-grade natural gas generators that supply data centres and factories with power the grid cannot deliver fast enough. In its first quarter as a public company revenue FELL 41.7 pct to USD39.9M - and contracted backlog rose to about USD1.7bn, up 10x. The income statement and the order book tell opposite stories, and the whole USD3.67bn equity value rests on which one is right. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE ORDER BOOK IS REAL, THE PRICE ALREADY PAYS FOR IT CONVERTING IN FULL) — base-case value ~$14.36 vs ~$16.72 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD14.36 against the USD16.72 close, -14.1 pct. Bear USD6.18 / base USD14.10 / bull USD23.07, weighted 25/50/25. Each case takes a 2028 revenue figure, applies ERock's own second-half margin ambition, capitalises it, discounts back at 12 pct and adds the USD626.6M of cash. - THE TWO HEADLINES, BOTH TRUE: revenue of USD39.878M was DOWN 41.7 pct against Q2 2025's USD68.458M - the figure the company prints itself - and UP 25.7 pct against Q1 2026's USD31.736M. The widely reported plus 23 pct was neither: it was the SHARE PRICE on August 12, the reaction session. - THE ANGLE: contracted backlog reached about USD1.7bn from about USD0.2bn a year earlier, up 10x, in the same quarter revenue fell 42 pct. A 470 MW equipment order from Anthropic extends production commitments into 2028, and the 10-Q states the backlog will be worked off over approximately two years. - THE LOSS IS MOSTLY A REFINANCING: the USD67.719M net loss contains USD48.774M of loss on extinguishing debt, booked when listing proceeds retired the borrowings - 72 pct of it, and non-operating. Filed loss per share is USD0.06, but struck on only 48.2M weighted shares for the post-listing days. - WHAT THE GUIDE REQUIRES: first-ever guidance of USD435-465M revenue and USD3-9M adjusted EBITDA. The first half delivered USD71.614M, so the second half must produce about USD378M - 5.3x the first half, roughly USD189M a quarter, against USD39.9M just delivered - and swing margin about 44 points. - WHO IS FUNDING IT: operating cash flow was POSITIVE USD268.9M for the half, but USD358.4M of that is the increase in customer prepayments. Strip it and operating cash flow is MINUS USD89.4M. Contract liabilities stand at USD528.4M. Cash is USD626.6M with zero borrowings and an undrawn USD250M facility. - WHAT THE TAPE REQUIRES: on 219,400,080 economic shares at USD16.72 the market value is USD3.67bn and enterprise value USD3.04bn - 1.79x the entire contracted order book. That price already discounts about USD2.21bn of 2028 revenue, 12.1x FY2025's USD183.1M and more than the whole backlog. What to watch: UP: a September quarter near the USD189M the guide implies, another order on the scale of the 470 MW Anthropic award, or evidence the Hyperion factory is shipping at rate. DOWN: a third-quarter print anywhere near the USD39.9M just delivered, any slip in the 2028 commitments, a guidance cut in November, or collection trouble on the customer owing 62 pct of receivables. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

  • August 17 · 12 min

    DPC Stock Q2 2026: DPC Holdings Earnings - Record Revenue, And The Margin Fell

    DPC Holdings (DPC) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 28). DPC Holdings, trading as Doncasters, listed on the NYSE on June 25 2026 - this is its first reported quarter as a public company. The 8-K cleared EDGAR at 7:05am ET on August 11, BEFORE the open, so August 11 IS the reaction session: it opened plus 1.11 pct, ran to plus 11.19 pct, traded BELOW the prior close intraday, and closed plus 4.45 pct on 1.74x volume. By August 14 it was USD50.09 - the entire gain handed back. Doncasters casts the superalloy blades that sit inside jet engines and industrial gas turbines, and it has been a public company for seven weeks. Its first print was a record: revenue up 34 pct to USD268.7M, adjusted EBITDA up 33 pct to USD48M, and the first full-year guidance the company has ever given. And in that same quarter the group adjusted EBITDA margin went DOWN ten basis points. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE GROWTH IS REAL, THE MARGIN THAT JUSTIFIES THE MULTIPLE IS NOT THERE YET) — base-case value ~$46.27 vs ~$50.09 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD46.27 against the USD50.09 close, -7.6 pct. Bear USD32.92 / base USD46.27 / bull USD58.63. Three roads, weighted 45/30/25: 30x our 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate of USD222M, the 32.5x peer median applied to the year DPC has actually guided, and a 36x growth premium. - THE PRINT: revenue USD268.7M against a USD246.0M bar - a 9.2 pct beat and a record, up 34 pct. But adjusted EPS was USD0.05 against USD0.07, a two-cent MISS on a genuinely comparable non-GAAP basis. The GAAP loss of USD1.14 a share contains USD158.5M of listing-triggered pay, not operations. - THE ANGLE: group adjusted EBITDA margin FELL 10 basis points, 17.9 pct to 17.8 pct, in the quarter revenue grew 34 pct to a record. Engine Products added 210bp to 23.5 pct - but Turbo Wheels, 17.9 pct of revenue, lost 430bp to 3.3 pct as its segment EBITDA fell 55.6 pct to USD1.6M. - THE GUIDE IS THE TELL: first guidance ever, USD1.00-1.04bn revenue and USD182-187M adjusted EBITDA. H1 revenue was USD505.3M, so the implied second half grows only 10.4 to 19.4 pct against 29.9 pct in H1 - while needing margin of 18.8 pct against 17.4 pct. A margin guide, in the half margin fell. - CASH: free cash flow was minus USD36.5M in the quarter and minus USD53.8M across the half, against POSITIVE USD11.0M a year earlier. Operating cash flow was minus USD27.0M on USD48M of adjusted EBITDA. Working capital of USD307.0M is about 30 pct of guided revenue, so growth consumes cash. - THE BALANCE SHEET, AND WE GIVE IT FULL CREDIT: from USD524.6M of net debt at 3.8x in December to USD118.2M of transaction-adjusted net CASH at 0.7x. The 14.0 pct shareholder PIK loan is extinguished, USD460M of a 10.2 pct term loan was repaid June 29, and Moody's upgraded to Ba2 positive. - WHAT THE TAPE REQUIRES: at USD50.09 on 149,393,016 shares the enterprise value is USD7.36bn - 45.9x trailing adjusted EBITDA and 39.9x the company's own guide. Howmet, which casts the same parts for the same engines, trades at 43.5x on a 30.2 pct margin. DPC is guiding to 18.1 pct. What to watch: UP: two consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow, evidence that Turbo Wheels has stopped diluting - a disposal or a genuine margin recovery toward the 7.6 pct it earned a year ago - or a November print that delivers the second-half margin the guidance promises. DOWN: metal-cost pass-through continuing to dilute reported margin, working capital absorbing the growth, a soft first guide revision, or the 180-day lock-up releasing around December 21 2026 into a float that is seven weeks old. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

  • August 17 · 12 min

    BLTE Stock Q2 2026: Belite Bio Earnings - The FDA Said Yes And The Stock Fell 7%

    Belite Bio (BLTE) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30). Belite is a foreign private issuer - no 10-Q, the quarter is a 6-K. It cleared EDGAR 9:50pm ET August 12, AFTER the close, so August 13 IS the reaction session: opened dead flat, closed -7.07 pct on 3.04x volume. On August 11 the FDA accepted the first New Drug Application ever filed in Stargardt disease and granted Priority Review. The stock closed up 0.77 pct. Thirty hours later Belite printed the quarter and the stock fell 7.07 pct on triple volume. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE APPROVAL IS PRICED, THE LABEL IS NOT WRITTEN) — base-case value ~$136.18 vs ~$162.80 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD136.18 against the USD162.80 close, -16.4 pct. Bear USD52.96 / base USD139.29 / bull USD213.17. Risk-adjusted NPV, every assumption stated: 46 pct peak operating margin, 11x exit multiple, 8 years to peak, 11 pct discount rate, 85 pct odds of approval. - THE PRINT: net loss USD28.4M against USD16.3M, GAAP loss per share USD0.70 against a USD0.73 consensus. That three-cent difference is about USD1.2M of spending timing on 40,182,310 weighted shares - not operating news. Six-month net loss USD55.4M against USD30.6M. There is no revenue line. - WHAT ACTUALLY MOVED IT: cash selling and administrative expense, excluding share compensation, went USD1.3M to USD10.9M - 8.2 TIMES - in twelve months, and USD2.8M to USD16.6M across the half. Cash operating expense rose 181.8 pct to USD28.1M. Share compensation FELL, USD7.6M to USD6.8M. - THE ASYMMETRY: the FDA accepted the first NDA ever filed in Stargardt disease, with PRIORITY REVIEW, after the close on August 11. The August 12 reaction session closed +0.77 pct. The Q2 results landed after the close on August 12, and August 13 opened dead flat and closed -7.07 pct. - BALANCE SHEET: USD279.9M of cash plus USD500.1M of US Treasury bills and notes is USD780.0M, 98.5 pct of total assets, against USD14.9M of total liabilities and no debt. Liquid assets fell only USD18.6M in the quarter from USD798.6M. About 9 years of runway on the USD21.6M non-GAAP loss. - THE ASSET: tinlarebant, a once-daily oral RBP4 antagonist. Phase 3 DRAGON, 104 subjects aged 12 to 20 over 24 months, cut atrophic lesion growth 35.7 pct versus placebo. PDUFA February 12 2027. DRAGON II enrolled 73; PHOENIX in geographic atrophy enrolled 530, with an interim analysis ahead. - WHAT THE TAPE REQUIRES: at USD162.80 the enterprise value is USD5.79bn, or USD109,269 per US Stargardt patient against a company estimate of 53,000. That price needs USD3.51bn of peak sales, 20.5 pct above our base case - roughly 14,049 patients at USD185,000 a year, 26.5 pct of the pool. What to watch: UP: an approved label on February 12 2027 covering adults rather than the 12-to-20 trial population, or a positive PHOENIX interim in geographic atrophy. DOWN: a label written to the DRAGON population, payer resistance to an imaging endpoint, or a commercial build sized for patients who never come. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

  • August 17 · 14 min

    STN Stock Q2 2026: Stantec Earnings - The Quarter One Business Line Paid For

    Stantec (STN) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30). The 6-K cleared EDGAR at 21:03 on Wednesday August 12, AFTER the close, so Thursday August 13 IS the reaction session: it opened -1.20 pct, fell as far as -4.59 pct intraday, then closed -0.32 pct on 1.60x volume. Stantec reported record net revenue, record adjusted EBITDA margin and a record CAD 9.2bn backlog, then raised its margin target. The United States - 51.9 pct of net revenue - grew organically by exactly zero. All figures Canadian dollars. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - A GOOD BUSINESS ALREADY PRICED FOR ITS GUIDANCE) — base-case value ~$69.36 vs ~$73.70 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD69.36 (CAD96.22) vs the USD73.70 close, -5.9 pct. Bear USD40.20 / base USD71.26 / bull USD108.35 weighted 30/50/20 on a free-cash-flow DCF: CAD600M normalised, 8.25 pct discount, 2.5 pct terminal. - GROWTH DECOMPOSED: net revenue CAD1,780.6M, +11.5 pct. Acquisition supplied 7.1 points and currency 0.7, leaving organic growth of just 3.7 pct. In FY2025 the ratio ran the other way: organic 5.0 pct against acquisition 3.9 pct. The mix has flipped. - THE UNITED STATES: net revenue CAD924.5M vs CAD819.6M, and organic growth of 0.0 pct. Every dollar of the CAD104.9M increase was the Page acquisition (CAD105.1M) less CAD0.2M of currency. Canada managed 2.4 pct; Global 12.8 pct. - WATER CARRIED IT: Water is 22.4 pct of net revenue and delivered CAD41.9M of the CAD58.8M of organic growth - 71.3 pct. Strip Water out and the other CAD1,381.6M of Stantec grew organically 1.4 pct. Infrastructure, the No.2 business, SHRANK 1.1 pct. - THE WIDENING WEDGE: adjusted EPS CAD1.61 vs IFRS diluted CAD1.32 - a CAD0.29 gap against CAD0.17 a year ago, up 71 pct. After-tax amortisation of acquired intangibles is CAD22.7M of it. IFRS net margin FELL to 8.4 pct from 8.5 pct. - GUIDANCE CUT INSIDE A RAISE: the adjusted EBITDA margin target went UP to 17.8-18.3 pct, but organic growth was cut from mid- to high-single digits (May filing) to mid-single digits, and the US and Canada with it. Only Global was raised. - CASH: first-half free cash flow was NEGATIVE CAD6.2M against positive CAD129.0M a year earlier; operating cash flow halved to CAD116.3M. Stantec still returned CAD231.4M via buybacks and dividends. Net debt CAD1,642.4M, leverage 1.3x. What to watch: UP: US organic growth turning visibly positive at the November 12 Q3 print, which would validate the deferred-work explanation and largely close our gap. DOWN: a second flat US quarter, which makes the full-year organic guide arithmetically unreachable, or backlog conversion slipping further. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

  • August 17 · 14 min

    SBS Stock Q2 2026: SABESP Earnings - The Interest Bill Ate The Tariff

    SABESP (SBS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 6-K cleared EDGAR 18:55 ET Wednesday August 12, AFTER the close, so Thursday August 13 IS the reaction session: it opened -4.71 pct at USD4.86 and CLOSED -8.24 pct at USD4.68 on 5.05x normal volume.) Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo is the water and sewage utility for Sao Paulo state - 371 municipalities, privatised in 2024. Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell 3.2 pct. Adjusted net income fell 41.2 pct. The gap is the financial line. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - A GOOD ASSET, ALREADY PAID FOR) — base-case value ~$4.24 vs ~$4.60 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD4.24 an ADS (R$22.09 a share) vs the USD4.60 close, -7.9 pct. Three roads weighted 50/20/30: 1.25x the concession base gives R$21.84, 10x trailing earnings of R$2.27 gives R$22.70, 8x annualised adjusted EBITDA gives R$22.10. BEAR USD3.42, BULL USD5.66. - THE ANGLE - THIS IS A RATES STORY, NOT A WATER STORY. Interest and charges on borrowings rose R$825.3M year on year while adjusted net revenue rose R$378M: 2.18x faster. Adjusted EBITDA fell just 3.2 pct but adjusted net income fell 41.2 pct, and 76 pct of the pre-tax decline is the financial line. - LONG INFLATION, SHORT THE REAL RATE. CDI-linked borrowings went from R$30.7bn to R$43.3bn in six months - 82 pct of the whole stack. Net of cash that is a R$26.4bn CDI liability costing R$3.7bn a year at 13.98 pct, against a R$17.0bn IPCA-linked concession asset earning R$693M a year. - THE REGULATED SPREAD IS 158 BASIS POINTS. ARSESP allows 7.86 pct real post-tax on the base. CDI money at 13.98 pct nominal, with IPCA at 4.07 pct, costs 6.28 pct real after 34 pct tax. Every debt-funded real of the R$20bn-a-year capex earns that point and a half, before any overrun. - THE PRINT: adjusted EPS R$0.33 vs R$0.57; reported IFRS R$0.41 vs R$0.62. Net revenue R$10,209M was a record but R$3,616M is IFRIC 12 construction revenue earning R$13.3M of margin. Q2 2025 also carried about R$200M of legal releases plus a R$280.3M financial credit - clean, the fall is 29.8 pct. - THE TARIFF WORKED, THE CUSTOMER DID NOT. The average rate rose 9.4 pct to R$6.01 a cubic metre but billed volume rose only 0.8 pct and mix took 3.1 pct back out as social tariffs expanded. Net price landed at 8.7 pct against a 9.9 pct schedule. Active water connections FELL 0.2 pct. - THE PRICE RECONCILES. 1 ADS = 1 ordinary share, unchanged; the 28 April 2026 EGM approved a 1:5 split and BNY Mellon issued four extra ADRs per ADR. 3,524,534,025 shares x USD4.60 = USD16.21bn. USD4.60 x 5.2132 = R$23.98 against SBSP3 near R$24.28. Screens quoting 683M shares are pre-split. What to watch: UP: a January 2027 ARSESP tariff adjustment materially above inflation (January 2026 delivered 6.5 pct); or Selic cuts below 13 pct, worth about R$264M a year per 100 bps on the net floating book. DOWN: one more quarter of services up 39 pct and chemicals up 97 pct. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

  • August 17 · 14 min

    ALH Stock Q2 2026: Alliance Laundry Earnings - Only A Quarter Of The Beat Was The Business

    Alliance Laundry Holdings (ALH) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the Item 2.02 8-K cleared EDGAR 07:12 ET Thursday August 13, BEFORE the open, so Thursday IS the reaction session: it OPENED +7.9 pct - the high of the day - then closed -7.9 pct from that open, -0.6 pct on the session.) Alliance Laundry's pre-tax profit improved by USD33.4M year on year. Only about USD8.0M of it - 24 pct - came from the business getting better. The rest is a cash interest saving, a non-cash swap mark and a one-off refund. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE GAP IS ONE ASSUMPTION WIDE) — base-case value ~$23.27 vs ~$25.47 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD23.27 vs the USD25.47 close, -8.6 pct. Three roads weighted 40/35/25: a 9.0 pct DCF fading to a 2.5 pct tail USD22.97, 12.5x forward Adjusted EBITDA USD23.69, 17.5x forward adjusted EPS of USD1.32 USD23.15. BEAR USD16.02, BULL USD32.26. Street average USD31.25. - THE ANGLE - ONLY A QUARTER OF IT WAS THE BUSINESS. Adjusted pre-tax profit improved USD33.4M: operating income +USD11.8M, interest -USD21.6M. Inside that sit a USD4.87M non-cash swap mark (15 pct), USD3.8M of insurance and tariff refunds (11 pct), USD16.7M of cash interest saving (50 pct) - and USD8.0M of operating growth. - THE SWAP MARK IS NOT CASH. The derivative note shows the interest-rate swaps booked a USD3.245M GAIN inside interest expense this quarter against a USD1.625M LOSS a year ago. Across the half, reported interest fell USD48.6M while CASH paid for interest fell USD35.0M - the USD14.08M swap swing closes the gap exactly. - THE REFUND WAS NEVER ADJUSTED OUT. MD&A discloses USD3.8M of insurance proceeds and tariff refunds inside gross margin and inside North America segment EBITDA. Strip it and Adjusted EBITDA grew 8.8 pct, not the 12.0 pct headline, and the North America margin was 30.6 pct, not the 31.6 pct printed. - THE ANNUITY DID NOT GROW. Service parts - the installed-base revenue meant to be the defensive ballast - was USD43.742M against USD43.439M, up 0.7 pct. North America parts +3.7 pct, which MD&A attributes to price increases; International parts -7.0 pct. New equipment grew 7.6 pct, Commercial-In-Home 19 pct. - THE RAISE DID NOT RAISE REVENUE. Adjusted EBITDA guidance went to +8-10 pct from +7-8 pct; revenue guidance did not move at +6-7 pct. Against the filed first half that implies second-half revenue growth of 4.1-6.0 pct (H1 was 8.0 pct) and EBITDA growth of 5.2-9.2 pct against the 12.0 pct just posted. - THE PRINT: adjusted EPS USD0.41 vs a USD0.3415 bar, +20.1 pct - but revenue MISSED at USD476.8M vs USD479.4M. Basis proven both ways: GAAP 0.28 plus 0.34 equals the filed 0.62; adjusted 0.31 plus 0.41 equals the filed 0.72. The bar was NOT cut: last year rebased plus the interest saving is USD0.344. What to watch: UP: a return to mid-single-digit service parts growth, or International revenue turning positive - it is 25 pct of the top line and went backwards this quarter. DOWN: the November 12 print, where a USD0.32 consensus on USD461M has to absorb the 4-6 pct second-half revenue growth guidance implies. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

  • August 17 · 14 min

    RIOT Stock Q2 2026: Riot Platforms Earnings - The $9.1B AI Lease Paid For In Bitcoin

    Riot Platforms (RIOT) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 10-Q cleared EDGAR 17:01 ET Monday August 10, AFTER the close, so Tuesday August 11 IS the reaction session: it OPENED +21.5 pct, fell back to USD19.34, and CLOSED +4.33 pct on 4.54x normal volume.) Riot Platforms signed 241 megawatts of AI data-centre leases worth USD9.8bn in seven months and issued zero new shares to pay for it. It sold 9,665 bitcoin instead - 3.16 coins for every one it mined, and 54 pct of the stack it began the year with. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - THE BULL CASE STILL CLEARS THE TAPE) — base-case value ~$11.47 vs ~$19.02 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD11.47 vs the USD19.02 close, -39.7 pct. Three roads weighted 50/20/30: asset sum of the parts USD13.42, signed contracts and treasury only USD7.03, and a 2028 balance sheet rolled forward with the convertible's shares inside the count USD11.19. BEAR USD6.94, BULL USD21.44. - THE ANGLE - RIOT PROMISED NO NEW EQUITY, AND ON SHARES IT MEANT IT. Financing activities for the half were NEGATIVE USD2.9M; the at-the-market raised USD0 against USD123.9M in 1H25. Shares went 371.6M at Dec 31 to 378.0M at Jun 30 - all restricted stock - then FELL to 375.3M on the 10-Q cover at Aug 7. - SO THE EQUITY CAME OUT OF THE TREASURY. Note 5: 18,005 bitcoin on Jan 1, 3,060 mined, 9,665 SOLD for USD732.5M, 11,380 left. That is 3.16 coins sold per coin mined against 0.46x in 1H25. Riot's own deck calls BTC sales the primary funding source for the equity component of data-centre capex. - AND THE SECOND CURRENCY IS THE CONVERTIBLE. The 0.75 pct 2030 Notes - USD594.4M principal, USD14.86 conversion, 67.2767 shares per USD1,000 = 39.99M shares - became convertible at holder option in Q3 2026, and Riot intends to settle in stock. Fully diluted 415.2M, not the 375.3M on screens. - THE MINE STOPPED PAYING. Cost to mine one bitcoin INCLUDING miner depreciation was USD90,631 against USD71,667 of production value - 126.5 pct, versus 92.4 pct a year earlier. Segment cash gross profit USD34.5M, then USD64.6M of miner depreciation. Adjusted EBITDA -USD69.7M against +USD495.3M. - THE EPS MISS IS 84 PCT NON-CASH. GAAP -USD0.68 vs a -USD0.3033 bar. Basis proven: Q1 -1.44 plus Q2 -0.68 equals the filed six-month -2.12. Add back USD74.6M of bitcoin mark, USD28.0M impairment and USD8.4M derivative marks and it is -USD0.363, a 6-cent miss. Revenue BEAT by 12.9 pct. - LIQUIDITY: the deck shows USD1.21bn. Unencumbered is USD796.8M - 5,821 of 11,380 coins are pledged to Coinbase and USD77.5M of cash is restricted, a 34.4 pct haircut. A signed megawatt costs USD9.96M and is worth USD19.17M at a 9.5 pct rate; the tape pays USD7.50M for unsigned ones. What to watch: UP: a signed Corsicana lease at Rockdale economics, worth roughly USD9.80 a share of development profit; or the Morgan Stanley bridge converting to permanent investment-grade debt. DOWN: that USD573M facility matures December 31 2026, and another half at this pace takes the stack under 5,000 coins. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

  • August 17 · 14 min

    SUZ Stock Q2 2026: Suzano Earnings - The Pulp Price Rose And Profit Fell 64%

    Suzano (SUZ) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 6-K cleared EDGAR 18:11 ET Wednesday August 12, AFTER the close, so Thursday August 13 IS the reaction session: it opened +1.12 pct, which was the high of the day, and CLOSED -0.37 pct at USD7.99 on 1.51x normal volume.) Suzano is the largest producer of hardwood market pulp on earth. It prices pulp in dollars and reports in Brazilian reais, and in Q2 2026 that split did all the damage: the realised pulp price rose 8 pct to USD599 a tonne, and adjusted EBITDA still fell 23 pct. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE RIGHT ASSET ON TOO MUCH DEBT) — base-case value ~$8.92 vs ~$8.11 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD8.92 vs the USD8.11 close, +10.0 pct. Three roads weighted 40/30/30: mid-cycle EBITDA of R22.0bn at 5.75x gives USD9.38, free cash flow to equity at a 14 pct cost of equity gives USD8.02, pulp at 5.5x plus paper at 7.0x gives USD9.21. BEAR USD4.83, BULL USD14.03. Reais at R5.2132. - THE ANGLE - THE PRICE TURNED AND SUZANO STILL MADE LESS. Realised pulp price USD599 a tonne, +8 pct year on year and +7 pct sequentially; PIX/FOEX hardwood rose 13.8 pct in Europe. Adjusted EBITDA fell 23 pct anyway to R4,705M, and adjusted EBITDA per tonne fell 14 pct to R1,424. - THE CURRENCY DID IT, ON BOTH SIDES. Suzano's own bridge: pulp revenue -15 pct = volume -11, average dollar against average real -11, price +8. The identical tonne fetched R3,022 against R3,147. The cost base is in reais too: all-in cash cost R972 a tonne, +16 pct. Cash margin R2,050 against R2,309. - THE BEAT IS A TREE. Other operating income carried R1,158M of NON-CASH revaluation of standing timber - 64 pct of the R1,807M reported net income, against a R73M charge a year earlier. Tax it at Brazil's 34 pct rate and diluted EPS is R0.8372 (USD0.161) - a 35.8 pct MISS on the USD0.2501 bar, not a 12 pct beat. - THE PROFIT FALL IS ONE LINE. Net financial result was NEGATIVE R10M against a POSITIVE R4,425M a year ago, as exchange gains on dollar debt shrank to R197M from R3,444M. That swing alone exceeds the entire R3,204M fall in net income. Gross margin: 24.4 pct against 35.3 pct. - THE STACK: net debt R66,089M (USD12,767M) FELL 7 pct year on year, and leverage still rose from 3.1x to 3.4x in dollars because EBITDA fell faster. On July 1 Suzano paid USD1.3bn for 51 pct of a Kimberly-Clark tissue venture (22 plants, 14 countries). Pro-forma 3.65x. Net debt per ADR is USD10.35. - TWO FREE CASH FLOWS: the headline adjusted figure is R9,423M trailing, an 18.1 pct yield. After the R5,095M of expansion capex and R1,519M of dividends it adds back, real free cash flow is R2,809M - a 5.4 pct yield. The ADR is 1:1 (Note 1). Filed diluted EPS R1.45457; ROIC 10.3 pct from 13.1 pct. What to watch: UP: a weaker real, which lifts reported revenue without a single extra tonne; or the first disclosed earnings figure for the Kimberly-Clark tissue venture, which consolidates in Q3 2026. DOWN: the full-year cash-cost target of about R800 a tonne, which needs the second half to average roughly R778. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

  • August 17 · 14 min

    BKD Stock Q2 2026: Brookdale Senior Living Earnings - The Margin That Never Moved

    Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 8-K cleared EDGAR 16:18 ET Monday August 10, AFTER the close, so Tuesday August 11 IS the reaction session: it opened +2.41 pct at USD14.02, traded up to USD14.33, then CLOSED -8.33 pct at USD12.55 on 3.34x normal volume. By August 14 it closed USD12.64.) Brookdale is the largest US senior housing operator - 541 communities, 43,320 units, 41 states. Q2 occupancy reached 82.4 pct, up 230 bps, and RevPAR rose 8.2 pct. But in the same 515 communities held through both years, operating margin was 29.5 pct a year ago and 29.5 pct now: Brookdale's own supplemental prints the change as ZERO basis points. And the year-on-year occupancy gain has faded from +210 bps in January to +50 bps in July. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A REAL RECOVERY ON THE WRONG CAPITAL STRUCTURE) — base-case value ~$8.36 vs ~$12.64 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD8.36 vs the USD12.64 close, -33.9 pct. Three roads weighted 40/25/35: owned assets at a 7 pct cap rate USD7.92, an equity DCF on Brookdale's own Adjusted Free Cash Flow at 11 pct USD6.53, and 12x 2027 Adjusted EBITDA USD10.18. BEAR USD5.48, BULL USD13.81. - THE ANGLE - SAME-COMMUNITY MARGIN GAINED ZERO BASIS POINTS. 29.5 pct in Q2 2025 and 29.5 pct in Q2 2026; the supplemental prints the change as 0 bps. That is on a 110 bp occupancy gain and 5.5 pct RevPAR growth. Incremental margin was 30.1 pct - the same as the average, so no operating leverage. - THE RAMP IS DECELERATING. Same-community occupancy vs the same month a year earlier: Jan +210 bps, Feb +180, Mar +120, Apr +130, May +120, Jun +90, Jul +50. Seven months of 2026 added 30 bps in total; the same seven months of 2025 added 190. Monthly reporting ends after December 2026. - WHY: LABOUR COOLED, NOTHING ELSE DID. Same-community labour rose 3.6 pct and fell to 45.2 pct of revenue from 46.1. Every other facility cost - insurance, maintenance, bad debt - rose 9.1 pct, to 25.3 pct from 24.4. The leak moved rather than closed. - THE PRINT: GAAP EPS USD0.10 vs a -USD0.0555 bar, but a USD45.4M gain on selling six communities is larger than the USD23.3M of net income it sits inside. Ex disposal, impairment, debt extinguishment and transaction cost the quarter is -USD0.045 a share - it MET. Revenue USD718.6M missed by USD17.0M. - THE STACK: net debt USD3,897M, adjusted net debt USD5,067M, 8.4x leverage, book equity NEGATIVE USD29.0M. Refinancings priced at 5.38 pct in March, 5.97 pct in June and 6.16 pct in July, against a 5.09 pct book. Adjusted EBITDA USD122.1M, +4.3 pct, but -6.9 pct sequentially. - WHAT REACHES THE EQUITY: Adjusted Free Cash Flow, Brookdale's own measure, was USD22.8M for all of 2025 and USD25.1M trailing - against a USD3.02B market value, and struck before USD22M-USD51M a year of principal. At USD12.64 the tape caps the buildings at 5.6 pct. What to watch: UP: same-community margin expanding about 100 bps as non-labour inflation normalises, worth roughly USD28M a year; or a re-acceleration in the monthly occupancy series before it is retired after December 2026. DOWN: the USD949M of 2028 maturities repricing above 6.5 pct. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

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