Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Colton Thomas

⚡ Charged Alpha — The S&P 500 Stock Encyclopedia Data-driven deep dives into every stock in the S&P 500 after every earnings report. Each episode breaks down one company from open to close: what they do, how the numbers look, what Wall Street thinks, the bull case, the bear case. 🛠️ Check out our free beginner-friendly screening tools for stocks, ETFs, options, crypto, bonds, REITs & more at https://chargedalpha.com — no signup, no paywall. 📊 What you get in every episode: Company overview & competitive moat Full financial breakdown — valuation, revenue, margins, cash flow Analyst consensus & price targets Bull case vs. bear case Peer comparison, options flow & insider activity Key metrics to watch ⚠️ Not financial advice. For educational purposes only. Episodes are researched, written, and produced using AI-assisted tools. All data aggregated from publicly available sources. #stocks #investing #S&P500 #stockanalysis #chargedalpha #financialdata #earningsreport #earnings

Play

Open in

188 episodes
Avg 14 min
English

Episodes 188

Newest Oldest Longest

All20 Unplayed20 In progress0 Played0

Counted on this page — what you have heard stays on this device, so it is not something the list can be paged by.

Yesterday · 12 min
IPHA Stock: $75M Buys Time, Not Approval — Innate Pharma H1 2026
Innate Pharma S.A. (IPHA) H1 2026 — September 17 intraday quote $1.855 at 11:50 a.m. EDT, down 7.71% from the $2.01 previous close. Not the final session close. Innate Pharma closed the Sobi partnership and an equity financing, extending the expected runway. The cash has claims, the shares have new owners, and clinical evidence still determines the value. THE CALL: HOLD (2/5, LOW) — base-case value ~$1.80 vs ~$1.855 today. KEY METRICS: - H1 combined income €5.663M; licensing €3.115M - IFRS net loss €19.623M; operating outflow €21.044M - Sobi $75M upfront triggered; receipt expected - Equity raise €30M gross / €27.6M estimated net - Post-placement ordinary shares 111.719M; fully diluted 117.822M - HOLD 2/5; $1.80 base / $1.75 weighted / $0.40–$4.00 scenarios What to watch: Confirm the $75M receipt, inspect PACIFIC-9 and IPH4502 data, dose the first TELLOMAK-3 patient by Q1 2027, and track burn plus dilution. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/ipha-h1-2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
Yesterday · 13 min
IMMR Stock: Profit Recovered. What Is Recurring? — Q1 FY2027
Immersion Corporation (IMMR) Q1 FY2027 — FMP September 16 regular close $7.12; financial anchor July 31 and latest common count September 8. Post-release dated observation, not a live quote. Immersion returned to parent-attributable profit, but investment gains did much of the work. We separate recurring haptic economics, BNED minority ownership and claims against the parent cash balance. THE CALL: HOLD (2/5, LOW) — base-case value ~$7.50 vs ~$7.12 today. KEY METRICS: - Consolidated revenue $294.399M; haptic licensing $3.804M - Parent GAAP income $4.876M; reported diluted EPS $0.17 uses a $5.752M adjusted numerator - Equity and derivative gains $13.763M; haptic operating profit $0.306M - Parent cash $167.000M; all parent liabilities $54.375M including written options $22.674M - BNED ownership 32.3%; debt nonrecourse to parent; quoted stake valued separately - HOLD 2/5, Very High uncertainty; base $7.50, scenario weighted $7.35 - Central method range $7–$8; scenario range $5–$10.50 What to watch: Watch parent liquid bridge $147.323 M, written options $22.674 M and haptic EBIT $0.306 M. A conditional entry about $5.63 requires an intact thesis; above $9 prompts a valuation review. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/immr-q1-fy2027 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
Yesterday · 12 min
UROY Stock: Profit Surge, New Owners, and a $40M Deadline — Q1 FY2027
Uranium Royalty Corp. (UROY) Q1 FY2027 — September 16 regular-session close: $4.39. Current economic shares include common and exchangeable claims. Uranium Royalty reported sharply higher earnings while monetizing its remaining physical stockpile. Sweetwater changed the share count, debt and cash priorities, and a $40M bridge must be repaid by January 31, 2027. THE CALL: SELL (2/5, LOW) — base-case value ~$2.25 vs ~$4.39 today. KEY METRICS: - Q1 revenue $51.683M, +112.9% YoY - Parent net income $16.247M; diluted EPS $0.10 - Common plus exchangeable shares 381.067M - Unrestricted cash $54.104M; restricted cash $49.547M - Bridge $40M due January 31, 2027; substantial doubt not alleviated - SELL 2/5; base $2.25; weighted $2.425; scenario range $1–$5 What to watch: Committed funding before January 31, 2027, recurring royalty distributions and per-share value preserved through financing. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/uroy-q1-fy2027 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
Yesterday · 12 min
ALMU Stock: The $30M CHIPS Deal Has an Equity Price — Q4 FY2026
Aeluma, Inc. (ALMU) Q4 FY2026 — The saved preliminary after-hours trade was $11.10 at 19:58:09 EDT on September 16, down 17.35% from the $13.43 regular-session close. Aeluma has cash for development, but its conditional CHIPS proposal involves equity securities equal in value to the award. Commercial demand must still justify the higher spending and ownership claims. THE CALL: SELL (2/5, LOW) — base-case value ~$7.00 vs ~$11.10 today. KEY METRICS: - Q4 revenue $0.582M, down 55.81% YoY - Q4 GAAP net loss $4.013M; EPS −$0.22 - Q4 non-GAAP net loss $2.705M; adjusted EPS −$0.15 - June 30 cash $56.006M; September 11 basic shares 19.265671M - FY2026 computed free cash flow −$3.912M - CHIPS proposal up to $30M; conditional award with equal-value equity - SELL 2/5; base $7; weighted $7.85; range $2–20 What to watch: Quarterly revenue above $1.5M with recurring commercial contribution, disciplined operating cash use and verified funding/ownership terms. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/almu-q4-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
Yesterday · 13 min
LEN Stock: Land-Light, Cash-Heavy — Q3 FY2026
Lennar Corporation (LEN) Q3 FY2026 — FMP dated after-hours trade $76.74 at September 16, 2026 23:59:38 UTC, −2.07% versus the $78.36 pre-release regular close. The regular-session −2.14% move preceded earnings. Lennar owns fewer lots and builds homes faster, but cash remains committed to inventory and land deposits. Q3 FY2026 shows why the land-light strategy still needs a cash-conversion recovery. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$75.00 vs ~$76.74 today. KEY METRICS: - Q3 revenue $8.046B, down 8.7% year over year - GAAP EPS $1.19; company adjusted EPS $1.23 - Homebuilding cash $1.150B, down $2.291B since fiscal year-end - Owned inventory increased $1.614B; deposits increased $943.6M since FY2025 end - FY2026 delivery target 80,000–81,000 versus 82,000–83,000 previously - HOLD, 3/5 conviction, $75 base and weighted value, High uncertainty - Central valuation band $65–80; stress scenarios $50–105 What to watch: Watch Q4 deliveries 22,000–23,000 and gross margin 15.5%–16.0%; analyst green checkpoints are homebuilding cash above $2.0B and net debt below $2.5B. A $60 potential entry requires the underlying thesis to remain intact. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/len-q3-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
Tuesday · 14 min
LAES Stock: The Cash Cushion Shrinks Per Share — H1 2026
SEALSQ Corp (LAES) H1 2026 — The September 15 intraday quote was $2.26; this is a dated snapshot, not a closing reaction. SEALSQ more than doubled first-half revenue, but operating losses and free-cash burn widened. The cash cushion also looks different when F-share economic rights and the complete share count are included. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$1.65 vs ~$2.26 today. KEY METRICS: - H1 revenue $11.151M, up 131.1% YoY - Gross profit $5.408M; gross margin 48.5% - Operating loss $32.162M; consolidated net loss $27.789M - OCF −$23.731M; FCF −$25.249M - Net liquid assets $481.033M before burn/commitments - Model economic shares 231.140922M; net liquid assets/share $2.08 - Mean fair value $1.65; separate probability-weighted value $1.805 What to watch: Commercial post-quantum revenue by year-end, H2 operating cash use at or below $20M, related-party receivables below $14M, and disciplined economic share growth. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/laes-h1-2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
Tuesday · 14 min
FPS Stock: Record Orders, but Who Funds the Cash Ramp? — Q4 FY2026
Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. (FPS) Q4 FY2026 — Verified Sep15 07:25:17 CDT early trade $30.6661, +7.07% versus Sep14 close $28.64; regular session and 10:00 CDT results call were pending at the source cutoff. Forgent has record orders and real operating growth. Customer advances fund much of the cash ramp, while the Up-C ownership and tax bridge determine how much value belongs to each economic share. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$29.00 vs ~$30.67 today. KEY METRICS: - Q4 revenue $461.7M, +94.3% YoY - Q4 GAAP EPS $0.21; adjusted EPS $0.25 - Q4 operating cash $73.901M; customer-advance inflow $130.345M - FY2026 computed FCF −$6.824M after all equipment purchases - FY2027 company revenue guide $2.4–2.6B - Model economic diluted interests304.755889M; net face debt$501.023M - Base fair value$29.00; probability-weighted scenario value$29.38 What to watch: Track FY2027 revenue guide $2.4–2.6B, adjusted margins above22%, positive operating cash as advances grow slower than sales, and disciplined capex; recheck economic ownership. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/fps-q4-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
Tuesday · 13 min
BNTC Stock: $180 Million Cash, But What Does Each Share Own? — FY2026
Benitec Biopharma Inc. (BNTC) FY2026 — Reference quote $12.08 at September 14 close; no clean post-release reaction quote captured. Benitec has $180 million cash, but prefunded warrants change what each share owns. Equity compensation and uncertain clinical economics drive the valuation. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — September 2027 twelve-month target ~$6.62 vs ~$12.08 at the September 14, 2026 release-boundary close. KEY METRICS: - FY2026 net loss $45.546M; operating expense $51.192M - Cash equivalents $179.972M at June 30 - SBC $26.410M; OCF cash use $16.518M - Economic shares 49.487M including prefunded warrants; computed cash/share $3.64 - 12-month target $6.62; probability-weighted scenario value $7.702; Very High uncertainty What to watch: Clear pivotal requirements, durable follow-up, a reconciled economic cap table and no renewed material compensation-accounting corrections. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/bntc-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
Tuesday · 12 min
HITI Stock: Germany Scales, but Where Is the Cash? — Q3 FY2026
High Tide Inc. (HITI) Q3 FY2026 — Reference price US$2.63 at the September 14 regular close; no completed post-release reaction is claimed. Germany is lifting High Tide’s operating earnings, but derivative gains dominate its reported profit. Follow the ownership, reinvestment and financing bridge to see how much becomes shareholder cash. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$2.60 vs ~$2.63 today. KEY METRICS: - Revenue C$198.818M, +32.82% YoY - Operating income C$8.710M, +132.95% YoY - Reported net income C$12.748M includes net C$10.502M fair-value benefit - Company adjusted net income C$2.246M; consolidated - Company FCF C$7.017M; all-capex after-lease cash proxy C$5.611M - Base fair value US$2.60; probability-weighted scenario value US$2.486 - Remexian ownership 51%; current common shares 88.897395M What to watch: Sustain at least C$4M quarterly German adjusted EBITDA, 5% legacy-segment revenue growth and C$6M full-capex cash with stable working capital; verify control remediation. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/hiti-q3-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
Monday · 14 min
ABAT Stock: Can Customers Still Place Orders? — FY2026
American Battery Technology Company (ABAT) FY2026 — September 11 close $2.47 precedes the September 14 audited annual filing. August 20 Q4 figures were preliminary; no completed post-filing session is attributed here. Can a recycling company grow if its customers cannot buy? ABAT’s audited FY2026 report shows better factory economics, substantial stock compensation and a new customer-access constraint. We trace sales and financing through to common-share value. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MEDIUM) — base-case value ~$1.25 vs ~$2.47 today. KEY METRICS: - Audited FY2026 revenue $21.742M, up 406.8%; net loss $73.379M - Derived Q4 revenue $8.233M and gross profit $1.289M; annual less nine months - Annual stock compensation $46.481M, 214% of revenue - June unrestricted cash $49.519M; operating + investing cash use $37.765M - Black mass supplies majority of revenue; substantially all current black-mass buyers are abroad - Exception requested to domestic allocation requirement; approval not verified - Primary DCF $1.23; terminal-sales / funding-reserved-book checks $1.43 / $1.57; $1.25 anchor - SELL, $1.25 base, 3/5 conviction, Very High uncertainty; scenario-weighted $1.48 What to watch: Conditional entry near $0.81 with a viable customer route and financing discipline. Analyst review November 30, 2026; watch GAAP gross margin above 15%, collected revenue, quarterly cash use above $12M without funded progress, or >10% additional common dilution without per-share benefit. These are research thresholds, not guidance. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/abat-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
Monday · 14 min
IMPP Stock: Who Owns the Cash Windfall? — Q2 2026
Imperial Petroleum Inc. (IMPP) Q2 2026 — September 11 regular close $5.79. Company release September 10; SEC acceptance September 11. June financials and August shares are labeled separately. Imperial Petroleum earned more, but who owns the cash windfall? We trace liquidity through vessel commitments, preferred priority and warrants to common-share value. THE CALL: HOLD (2/5, LOW) — base-case value ~$7.00 vs ~$5.79 today. KEY METRICS: - Q2 revenue $87.073M, up 139.5%; operating profit $33.398M - Q2 net income $34.759M; basic / diluted EPS $0.75 / $0.70 - June cash + deposits $245.231M; related-party payable $35.152M - August common shares 45.621M imply $264.148M market value at $5.79 - Series A priority $19.897M; F/G warrant strike $6.30 - Analyst routes $7.19 / $6.68 / $6.73; shared 65% existing-equity factor - Base $7; scenario-weighted $6.45; HOLD 2/5, Very High uncertainty What to watch: Conditional entry $5.25 if fleet economics, liquidity and ownership remain sound. Analyst adverse tests: recurring quarterly EBIT below $12M; liquidity below $100M without adequate returns; common shares above 50M without commensurate value. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/impp-q2-2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
September 11 · 15 min
USAU Stock: Who Pays to Build CK Gold? — Q1 FY2027
U.S. Gold Corp. (USAU) Q1 FY2027 — September 11 regular close $15.20, +0.86% from $15.07. The daily move includes trading before and after the filing; it is not an isolated filing reaction. A permitted mine still needs someone to pay for it. We follow U.S. Gold’s Q1 FY2027 loss, cash use, CK Gold financing requirements and potential dilution from project NPV to common-share value. THE CALL: HOLD (2/5, LOW) — base-case value ~$14.00 vs ~$15.20 today. KEY METRICS: - No revenue; quarterly net loss $4.601M versus $2.077M - Operating cash use $3.541M, up 6.8%; prior warrant gain complicates loss comparison - July cash $27.115M versus $422.386M detailed initial capital estimate - Industrial Siting Permit extended through December 2027; financial capacity required for restart - Study after-tax NPV5 $632.259M already includes initial construction spending - Analyst annual DCF / risked NAV / financing checks: $13.43 / $16.27 / $12.68 - Base fair value $14; central method range $12.50–16.50; scenario-weighted value $13.30 - HOLD, 2/5 conviction, Very High uncertainty; conditional entry $10.50 What to watch: Conditional entry $10.50 only with credible funding, cost control and the permit pathway intact. Review funding by December 31, 2026; watch costs above about $486M without an offset, quarterly cash use above $5M without progress, or cash below $10M while unfunded. These are analyst thresholds. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/usau-q1-fy2027 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
September 11 · 12 min
FIZZ Stock: Pricing Held Sales. Can Profit Recover? — Q1 FY2027
National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) Q1 FY2027 — September 10 regular close: $30.91, before the filing. No verified executed post-print reaction price. Pricing holds sales as case volume falls and aluminum squeezes profit. We test the recovery against cash quality, concentrated control and three valuation routes. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$28.50 vs ~$30.91 today. KEY METRICS: - Revenue $330.662M; price/case +7.1%, volume −6.4% - Gross margin 35.0% vs 38.0%; aluminum estimated 600bps pressure within net 300bps decline - Operating profit $58.480M; net income $47.004M; diluted EPS $0.50 - CFO $64.850M and FCF $61.779M include working-capital and tax timing - Cash $107.098M; no funded borrowing; 94M gross share modeling assumption - Cash added to value $52.581M after $50M reserve and $4.517M existing tax payable - DCF $25.62 / earnings $31.47 / revenue $30.39; 50/30/20 blend rounds to $28.50 - Bear/base/bull $20/$28.50/$43; 30/50/20 probabilities give $28.85 What to watch: Conditional entry $21.38, approximately 25% below $28.50 base, if demand, margins and liquidity hold. Review by December 15, 2026 (analyst deadline): case decline better than 3%, gross margin at least 36%, cash at least $75M. Adverse: volume below −8%, margin below 33.5%, unexplained cash below $50M, funded debt above $25M or gross shares above 95M. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/fizz-q1-fy2027 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
September 11 · 14 min
UNFI Stock: Profit Recovered. Why Is the Cash Guide Lower? — Q4 FY2026
United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) Q4 FY2026 — September 10 close $44.11: +0.4% from the pre-print close after an initial +2.3% release-day gain. Operating profit recovered, but next year’s cash-flow midpoint is lower. We test distribution efficiency, recurring adjustments, investment and shareholder claims. THE CALL: HOLD (2/5, LOW) — base-case value ~$49 vs ~$44.11 today. KEY METRICS: - Q4 revenue $7.642B; GAAP operating profit $69M; net income $35M; diluted EPS $0.57 - Adjusted EBITDA $172M; adjusted EPS $0.69; cyber benefit removed $3M Q4 / $21M FY - FY2026 FCF $323M; FY2027 guide $275–325M; capital/cloud plan about $300M - Net debt $1.539B includes finance leases; operating leases $1.459B disclosed separately - Model shares 62.9M diluted weighted average; published FCF adds back SBC - EPS / EV-EBITDA / equity FCF routes: $45.50 / $53.55 / $47.69; 30/30/40 blend → $49 - Illustrative $61M SBC cash charge: $38.00 cash route / $44.91 blend; base unchanged - Scenarios $32/$49/$71 at 30/50/20 → $48.30 weighted; central band $44–54 What to watch: Conditional entry $39.20, 20% below $49 base, if cash, leverage and service hold. Expected December update: watch FCF guide floor below $275M, leverage above 2.5x, sales worse than −3%, or quarterly transformation above $15M. Above $54 without improved fundamentals prompts valuation review. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/unfi-q4-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
September 11 · 13 min
DBI Stock: Who Keeps the Tariff Windfall? — Q2 FY2026
Designer Brands Inc. (DBI) Q2 FY2026 — DBI closed at $5.99 on September 10, up 14.75% that day; exact release clock and causal attribution not independently established. Designer Brands has a genuine operating recovery and a complicated tariff windfall. We reconcile the Investor financing, retained refund inside adjusted profit, Topo minority rights, finance leases and potential awards to value the common residual. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$3.50 vs ~$5.99 today. KEY METRICS: - Revenue $730.631M, −1.2%; Retail comps −2.6% - Gross margin 50.0% reported / 47.9% issuer adjusted / 45.14% fully ex-refund - Full COGS recovery $35.536M; issuer removes only $15.336M, retaining $20.200M - Full ex-refund Q2 EBIT $19.187M vs restated prior $26.143M; H1 $38.057M - Investor: $18.3M claims sold for $2.2M; Q2 remittance $18.3M includes $16.097M interest - Adjusted NI $19.228M adds back $2.860M minority attribution; not all public-common profit - H1 CFO $48.236M; cash capex $22.251M; FCF $25.985M includes rounded $20.7M company CFO refund benefit - Face debt $425.973M; inferred finance leases $29.462M; cash $51.591M - Analyst Topo claim $15M and cash reserve $20M; net modeled enterprise claims $438.844M - 66M deliberately gross potential-share assumption; overlap and vesting caveats, not GAAP diluted shares - DCF $4.366 / economic NOPAT $3.403 / revenue EV $1.981; 50/30/20 blend $3.59996 rounded $3.50 - Bear/base/bull $1/$3.50/$8; weights 30%/50%/20% give $3.65; conditional entry $2.45 What to watch: Review the next Q3 filing by December 15, 2026, an analytical deadline rather than a confirmed reporting date. Positive tests: Retail comparable sales at least 0%, fully ex-refund gross margin at least 45.5%, and underlying EBIT at least $35M. Adverse tests: comps below −4%, margin below 44%, EBIT below $20M, unexplained cash below $35M, funded face debt plus finance leases above $475M, or potential common claims above 69M. Conditional entry $2.45 is 30% below base, with funding, duty resolution and the retail recovery intact. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/dbi-q2-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
September 11 · 14 min
LOVE Stock: The Refund Made the Profit. Can Retail Make the Cash? — Q2 FY2027
The Lovesac Company (LOVE) Q2 FY2027 — September 10 reference: $14.26, down 11.04%. Exact release time and causal attribution unverified. A $21M tariff refund lifted profit while underlying margin fell. We value the recurring business after holiday funding, reinvestment and potential share claims. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$14.50 vs ~$14.26 today. KEY METRICS: - Q2 revenue $161.245M, +0.45% YoY; comparable sales −1.9% - Q2 GAAP net income $7.429M / EPS $0.51; refund EPS benefit $0.86 rounded - Q2 underlying gross margin 56.0%, down 40bp; adjusted EBITDA −$1.252M - Exact COGS refund adjustment $20.024M; interest already removed before EBITDA, no second deduction - H1 CFO −$11.429M; capex $11.592M; FCF −$23.021M; additional patents $0.612M - Cash $68.804M, zero funded debt; model reserves $15M, not restricted cash - Current actual common 14.422288M; disclosed gross claims 16.367156M; 16.5M forward gross model, not GAAP diluted - FY sales guide $690M–$710M; adjusted EBITDA $31.5M–$35.5M; implied Q4 midpoints $255.559M/$53.798M - Explicit H2 stub $21.233M UFCF; financial clock anchored August 2; no full-year FY27 cash duplication - DCF $11.22 / forward revenue $19.79 / economic earnings $15.21; weighted $14.53 rounded $14.50 - Bear/base/bull $8/$14.50/$23; 30%/50%/20% weighted $14.25; high uncertainty What to watch: Review by December 15, 2026 (not a confirmed reporting date). Positive: Q3 sales at least $150M, comps nonnegative, ex-refund gross margin at least 56.5%. Adverse: sales below $140M, margin below 55%, adjusted EBITDA below −$10M, unexplained cash below $30M or potential shares above 17.5M. Watch the implied Q4 profit hurdle. Conditional entry $10.88, about 25% below base, requires the business case to hold. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/love-q2-fy2027 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
September 11 · 14 min
LPTH Stock: Backlog Tripled. Shareholders Funded the Cash. — Q4 FY2026
LightPath Technologies, Inc. (LPTH) Q4 FY2026 — LPTH reference quote: $9.68 on September 10. The exact release hour is not independently established, so this quote and the vendor day change are not presented as a post-earnings reaction. LightPath finishes FY2026 with $110.9M backlog and $93.2M cash. Our Q4 analysis follows acquisition-driven revenue through manufacturing margins, earnout obligations, negative free cash flow and dilution to test the value reaching a common share. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$5.00 vs ~$9.68 today. KEY METRICS: - Q4 revenue $21.162M, up 73.32% YoY and 10.51% QoQ; gross margin 39.44% - Q4 GAAP operating loss $4.299M; net loss $4.141M; EPS -$0.06 - Q4 adjusted EBITDA $2.096M; add-backs include $3.402M earnout mark and $1.600M SBC - FY2026 revenue $71.722M; operating loss $19.654M; net loss $20.546M - FY2026 CFO -$10.225M; cash capex $6.268M; computed FCF -$16.494M - Cash $93.205M; net public/private equity proceeds $120.231M; 69.963M actual common shares - Backlog $110.9M; $85.6M scheduled within 12 months; no verified formal numeric guide - Valuation uses 81M gross model shares, not a current diluted count, and $86.055M adjusted net cash - DCF $2.98; forward sales $6.38; economic earnings $5.67; weighted route blend $5.17, rounded to nearest $0.50 gives $5.00 - Very High uncertainty; bear/base/bull $3/$5.00/$10; 30%/50%/20% scenario weights What to watch: Positive tests: at least $21M quarterly revenue without new acquisitions; at least 38% gross margin; quarterly FCF loss below $3M, then breakeven; reconciled potential dilution within 81M. Negative tests: revenue below $18M, gross margin below 34%, FCF loss above $6M or potential common claims above 84M. Review next filing by November 30, 2026; check the agreed $9M G5 settlement by January 15, 2027. Conditional entry $3.50 requires the business assumptions to remain intact. These are analyst tests, not company guidance. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/lpth-q4-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
September 11 · 14 min
ORCL Stock: Who Funds Oracle’s $23 Billion Cash Quarter? — Q1 FY2027
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Q1 FY2027 — ORCL closed September 10 at $153.17. The saved after-market trade is $160.97 at 21:57:20 UTC, up 5.09% from that close. This is an early post-print observation, not a completed next-session reaction. Oracle reports $23.103B operating cash, including $11.363B customer prepayments with a significant financing component. Our Q1 FY2027 analysis follows strong cloud growth through gross capital investment, funding claims, preferred conversion and the cash common owners ultimately retain. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$130.00 vs ~$160.97 today. KEY METRICS: - Q1 revenue $19.345B, up 29.61%; infrastructure revenue $7.388B, up 120.74% - Adjusted EPS $1.92 versus saved $1.74 estimate; GAAP EPS $1.56 - GAAP operating income $6.728B; adjusted operating income $8.151B - Operating cash $23.103B includes $11.363B financing-component customer prepayments - Gross capex $28.499B; conventional FCF negative $5.396B - Net cash outlay capex $17.966B is a separate funding measure, not a substitute FCF deduction - Funded debt $125.337B less cash/investments $37.077B gives $88.260B net funded debt - Analyst valuation routes $150.37/$145.17/$78.97; weighted blend $130.70 rounded to nearest $10 gives $130 - FY revenue at least $90B; adjusted EPS guide $8.10; current detailed Q1 notes pending What to watch: Q2 positive checks: revenue at least $21.197B, cloud revenue $13.401B, adjusted margin 42% and interest coverage 4.5x. Warnings: revenue below $20.875B, adjusted margin below 40%, or interest coverage below 4.0x. Track FCF separately from financing-component prepayments: better than −$15B in the ex-prepayment sensitivity supports improvement; below −$20B weakens it. Conditional valuation entry $97.50 with business assumptions intact. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/orcl-q1-fy2027 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
September 10 · 14 min
ADBE Stock: One Billion Users, What Reaches Owners? — Q3 FY2026
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) Q3 FY2026 — ADBE closed the regular September 10 session at $248.83. The saved after-market trade is $244.20 at 20:33:38 UTC, down 1.86% from that close; a full next-session reaction is pending. Adobe reports one billion monthly active users across creativity and productivity offerings. Our Q3 FY2026 analysis asks how that reach becomes owner value: paid AI conversion, comparable-currency recurring revenue, operating margins, employee compensation and disciplined repurchases. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$300.00 vs ~$244.20 today. KEY METRICS: - Q3 revenue $6.760B, up 12.89%; adjusted EPS $6.13 versus $6.08 saved vendor estimate - GAAP operating profit $2.354B, up 8.33%; adjusted operating profit $2.974B, up 7.25% - GAAP operating margin 34.82%, down 147 basis points; adjusted margin 43.99%, down 232 basis points - Total ARR $27.500B; computed growth 11.16% against the same-FX prior Q3 base - Monthly active users 1 billion; AI-first ARR growth above 150%, current absolute amount undisclosed - Q3 FCF $2.438B; less SBC $539M gives an analytical owner-cash proxy of $1.899B - Trailing FCF less SBC $8.521B; trailing cash repurchases $9.295B - Cash and short-term investments $5.639B; funded debt carrying values $6.363B; net debt $724M What to watch: Reassess positively with at least 10% same-FX ARR growth, 8% RPO growth and $8.5B trailing free cash flow less SBC. Below 8% ARR growth, 5% RPO growth or $7.5B trailing owner-cash proxy would challenge the thesis. Q4 checkpoints: at least $6.825B revenue, 44% adjusted operating margin and 34% GAAP margin. Conditional valuation entry: $225 with the business assumptions intact. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/adbe-q3-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
September 10 · 13 min
CPRT Stock: More Free Cash, Less Operating Cash — Q4 FY2026
Copart, Inc. (CPRT) Q4 FY2026 — CPRT traded at $33.6103 in the September 10 after-hours snapshot saved at 20:34:35 UTC, 9.3% above the $30.75 regular close. This is a thin-session snapshot, not a completed next-day return. Annual free cash flow improved by $36.4M, but operating cash fell $195.3M. Lower capital spending supplied the difference. We follow Copart’s service fees, geographic profit, buybacks and cash bridge to test whether the auction network’s recovery supports the after-hours price. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$29.00 vs ~$33.6103 today. KEY METRICS: - Q4 revenue $1,152.439M, up 2.4%; service revenue up 1.4% - Q4 GAAP operating profit $368.904M, down 10.6%; operating margin 32.0% - Q4 GAAP diluted EPS $0.35 vs $0.41; diluted average shares 932.140M vs 977.778M - FY2026 operating cash $1,604.492M, down $195.258M; cash capex $337.363M, down $231.627M - FY2026 free cash flow $1,267.129M, up $36.369M; cash repurchases $1,632.538M - Cash, restricted cash and held-to-maturity securities $4,489.802M; redeemable NCI $16.585M - Our base value $29, method range $26–$32; SELL, moderate conviction, High uncertainty - DOJ investigation remains unresolved; issuer cannot estimate possible loss What to watch: Reassess with US service growth above 3%, operating margin recovering above 35%, operating cash moving toward $1.8B, and international profit growing with sales. A lower price with stable fundamentals could also change the call. These are analyst signposts, not issuer guidance. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/cprt-q4-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Showing 1–20 of 188 episodes