Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Colton Thomas

⚡ Charged Alpha — The S&P 500 Stock Encyclopedia Data-driven deep dives into every stock in the S&P 500 after every earnings report. Each episode breaks down one company from open to close: what they do, how the numbers look, what Wall Street thinks, the bull case, the bear case. 🛠️ Check out our free beginner-friendly screening tools for stocks, ETFs, options, crypto, bonds, REITs & more at https://chargedalpha.com — no signup, no paywall. 📊 What you get in every episode: Company overview & competitive moat Full financial breakdown — valuation, revenue, margins, cash flow Analyst consensus & price targets Bull case vs. bear case Peer comparison, options flow & insider activity Key metrics to watch ⚠️ Not financial advice. For educational purposes only. Episodes are researched, written, and produced using AI-assisted tools. All data aggregated from publicly available sources. #stocks #investing #S&P500 #stockanalysis #chargedalpha #financialdata #earningsreport #earnings

Play

Open in

162 episodes
Avg 14 min
English

Episodes 162

Newest Oldest Longest

All20 Unplayed20 In progress0 Played0

Counted on this page — what you have heard stays on this device, so it is not something the list can be paged by.

August 24 · 13 min
PDD Holdings (PDD) Q2 2026: Revenue +8%, Earnings -12%, And A $61bn Portfolio
PDD Holdings (PDD) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30, 2026): total revenue RMB112,358m (US$16.6bn), UP 8.05%. Operating profit RMB27,764m, UP 7.64%. Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders RMB27,182m, DOWN 11.61%. Non-GAAP diluted EPS per ADS RMB19.33 (US$2.85); GAAP diluted RMB18.45 (US$2.72). Shares closed at $87.07, DOWN 1.48% after opening UP 2.91%. PDD Holdings grew revenue 8.05% and operating profit 7.64% in the June quarter, and net income FELL 11.61%. Every step between the two sits below the operating line, and one of them - other income, net - swung RMB7,518m in the quarter and RMB12,810m across the half, 2.35x everything operating profit added. Neither the release nor the audited 20-F ever decomposes it. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, A CHEAP PLATFORM, A HUGE PORTFOLIO NOBODY CAN REACH, AND EARNINGS SET BELOW THE OPERATING LINE) — base-case value ~$99.21 vs ~$87.07 today. KEY METRICS: - THE SPINE: operating profit RMB27,764m, UP 7.64%, against net income RMB27,182m, DOWN 11.61%. Across the half operating profit is UP 13.02% and net income DOWN 12.68%. The bridge closes to the RMB million and every step of it is non-operating. - THE LINE NOBODY EXPLAINS: other income, net swung RMB7,518m in the quarter and RMB12,810m across the half - 2.35x what operating profit ADDED. On SEC XBRL it was POSITIVE every year 2020-2025, best ever RMB3,119.8m. The half alone is -RMB9,430m. - HALF THE COMPANY IS A PORTFOLIO: cash, restricted cash, short-term investments and debt securities total RMB630,071m. Less ALL RMB215,620m of liabilities (no borrowing among them) = US$61.08bn, or $42.91 an ADS - 49.29% of the share price. - AND IT HAS NEVER BEEN RETURNED: no dividend has ever been paid and no ordinary share or ADS repurchased - the only repurchases in the 20-F are of its own convertible notes. Every physical asset it owns totals US$1.34bn, 1.08% of market value. - WHAT THE MARKET PAYS FOR THE PLATFORM: strip the portfolio and US$62.85bn is left against US$11.74bn of trailing after-tax operating profit - 5.35x, a 26.24% cash yield. At the Nov 10, 2025 closing high the same sum gave 13.35x: a 59.89% de-rating. - THE EARNINGS BASIS, PROVED NOT ASSUMED: the vendor's epsActual IS the company's non-GAAP diluted per ADS, matching four straight quarters exactly. So $2.85 against a $2.76 bar is a real beat - but GAAP diluted is $2.72, which MISSES it and fell 11.08%. - THE CALL: US$61.08bn of net financial assets at 0.65/0.75/0.85 plus US$11.74bn of after-tax operating profit at 5.5x/8.0x/11.0x. Bear $73.27 / base $98.18 / bull $127.22, weighted 25/50/25 = FAIR VALUE $99.21 vs $87.07, +13.95%. BUY 3/5 - and LESS bullish than the nine dated houses at $102.56. What to watch: UP: the September-quarter other income line back near zero, OR any dividend or buyback - the first in the company's history. DOWN: that line repeating at this size, which would be roughly RMB29.6bn a year against a platform earning US$11.74bn. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 23 · 13 min
Alvotech (ALVO) H1 2026: Revenue -30.8%, Guidance Unchanged, And A 2x Second Half
Alvotech (ALVO) H1 2026 — H1 2026 (six months ended June 30, 2026): total revenue $211.9m, DOWN 30.80% from $306.1m. Adjusted EBITDA $46.9m vs $53.6m. Loss per share $0.22, basic and diluted. Full-year guidance REAFFIRMED unchanged at $650-700m of revenue and $180-220m of adjusted EBITDA, which requires the second half to be 2.07x to 2.30x the first. Alvotech's first-half revenue fell 30.80% to $211.9m and management left the full-year guidance exactly where it was, so the second half now has to deliver $438.1m - 2.07x the first. The obvious explanation is milestone timing, and it is false: product revenue fell 48.26% while licence revenue GREW 4.37%. But the licence line only grew because $39.75m came from an entity under common control. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A REAL PLATFORM, A GUIDED RAMP WITH NO PRECEDENT, AND A LEVERAGED STUB) — base-case value ~$4.17 vs ~$4.43 today. KEY METRICS: - THE SPINE: total revenue $211.9m, DOWN 30.80%, while FY2026 guidance of $650-700m revenue and $180-220m adjusted EBITDA was REAFFIRMED for the third time. That leaves $438.1m-$488.1m for the second half - 2.07x to 2.30x the first - on 2.84x to 3.69x the EBITDA. - THE SEASONALITY DEFENCE IS DEAD: FY2025 revenue was $593m against an H1 of $306.1m, so LAST YEAR'S SECOND HALF WAS SMALLER THAN ITS OWN FIRST ($286.9m, -6.30%). EBITDA skewed 1.56x; the 2026 guide asks 1.82x more skew than the company has ever delivered. - THE MILESTONE-TIMING READ IS FALSE, AND WE TESTED IT: product and service revenue fell 48.26% ($98.8m) while licence and other revenue GREW 4.37%. Product is 104.8% of the entire decline. The manufacturing story management tells is the true one. - BUT THE LICENCE LINE ONLY GREW ON A RELATED PARTY: $39.75m was recognised AT A POINT IN TIME under an agreement signed the same quarter with an entity under common control, zero prior-year comparable. Ex that, licence fell 34.88% and total revenue 43.78%. - THE OPERATING LINE IS AN ACCOUNTING ELECTION: reported R&D fell 50.08% ($92.9m to $46.4m) while capitalised development went $15.2m to $56.0m under IAS 38. TOTAL development spend fell only 5.30%. Restore the swing and the $2.0m operating loss is $42.8m. - THE CASH SAYS OTHERWISE: adjusted EBITDA $46.9m against cash USED in operations of $80.2m - a $127.1m gap of working capital ($56.8m, 83% contract assets) and interest paid ($72.2m vs $8.0m). Free cash flow -$171.2m, MORE than the $156.1m raised in June. - THE CALL: EV $2,889.7m on the FILED 356,817,038 shares, guidance converted to a peer-comparable basis (0.8876). Bear $0.14 / base $4.29 / bull $7.96, weighted 25/50/25 = FAIR VALUE $4.17 vs $4.43, -5.86%. HOLD 3/5. The tape needs $270.8m of EBITDA. What to watch: UP: product revenue back near the prior-year run rate in November AND the three US decisions landing in Q4. DOWN: any guidance revision, or a second half nearer the first than the range. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 23 · 14 min
Lowe’s (LOW) Q2 FY2026: Sales +8.3%, Comps +0.2%, And A Bought Beat
Lowe's (LOW) Q2 FY2026 — Q2 FY2026 (quarter ended July 31, 2026): net sales $25.96bn, UP 8.34%, but $176m BENEATH the $26.13bn bar. Comparable sales +0.2%. GAAP diluted EPS $4.27, flat to the cent. Adjusted $4.40 vs a $4.22 bar. Full year cut to the bottom of the range: $92.0bn of sales, GAAP EPS ~$11.75 and adjusted ~$12.25, both BENEATH last year. Lowe's grew net sales 8.34% and comparable sales 0.2%. Two tenths of one per cent on a $23.96bn base is about $48m, so 97.60% of the $2.00bn increase came from outside the comparable base - it was bought, not earned. Foundation Building Materials closed 9 October 2025 for $8.8bn cash and Artisan Design Group took $1,314m, paid for by cutting buybacks 94.79%. And the beat is the adjusted figure, which adds back $96m of amortisation and keeps an $0.11 tariff windfall inside it. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, AN EXCELLENT FRANCHISE, BOUGHT GROWTH, AND EARNINGS GUIDED BENEATH LAST YEAR) — base-case value ~$184.93 vs ~$216.09 today. KEY METRICS: - THE SPINE: net sales +8.34% (+$1,997m) against comparable sales of +0.2%. Two tenths of one per cent on a $23,959m base is about $48m, so 97.60% of the increase came from outside the comp base. The comp itself is transactions -2.1% offset by ticket +2.3% - price, not demand. - THE BEAT IS ADJUSTED, AND WE PROVED THE BASIS: the four filed GAAP quarters of fiscal 2025 sum to $11.85, exactly the filed annual figure; the vendor's four sum to $12.29. So the $4.22 bar is adjusted. GAAP EPS was flat to the cent at $4.27, and revenue MISSED by $176m. - THE WINDFALL IT LEAVES IN: the release states both the GAAP and adjusted figures include an $0.11 IEEPA tariff-refund benefit. Ex that, adjusted EPS is $4.29 against $4.33 - DOWN 0.92%. What it DOES exclude is $96m of intangible amortisation, which recurs. - WHAT THE GROWTH COST: $8,800m for Foundation Building Materials plus $1,314m for Artisan Design Group = $10,114m of cash. Foundation was bought at 13.86x its disclosed 2024 EBITDA of $635m - above the 12.46x the market pays for Lowe's - on a 9.77% margin vs Lowe's 13.79%. - WHAT PAID FOR IT: repurchases went from $4,053m in fiscal 2024 to $211m in fiscal 2025, a 94.79% cut. Since fiscal 2021 net earnings are -21.18% but EPS only -1.50%; the gap is a share count down 19.89%. This quarter diluted shares were 560m against 560m. - THE GUIDANCE BRIDGE, AND IT FOOTS: $92.0bn at a guided 11.2% margin is $10,304m of operating income - $151m more on $5,714m more sales, a 2.64% INCREMENTAL margin. Guided interest of $1,600m is $194m more, LARGER than that, so pre-tax earnings are guided DOWN $43m. - THE CALL: owner earnings $6,452m discounted at a 7.25% WACC on a 0.851 beta. Bear $121.83 / base $182.27 / bull $253.34, weighted 25/50/25 = FAIR VALUE $184.93 vs $216.09, -14.42%. SELL 3/5. The tape needs 5.97% growth; sales have compounded at -2.70% since fiscal 2021. What to watch: UP: comparable transactions turning positive AND the incremental margin on acquired sales above 5%. DOWN: a second consecutive guidance cut with net interest above $1.70bn. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 23 · 14 min
ScanSource (SCSC) Q4 FY2026: 10 Cents vs 99 Cents, And A $220M Cheque
ScanSource (SCSC) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 FY2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): net sales $953.1m, UP 17.3%, against an $814.4m bar. Gross profit $119.8m, up only 14.0% - the gross margin FELL 35bp to 12.57%. Non-GAAP EPS $1.46 against a $1.14 consensus set by two analysts; GAAP $1.24. Full year: net sales $3.23bn, GAAP EPS $3.64, non-GAAP $4.24, free cash flow $113.8m. ScanSource runs two businesses through one revenue line. Its distribution arm turns a dollar of net sales into 10.8 cents of gross profit; its Intelisys agency arm turns the same dollar into 98.6 cents. In the June quarter the 10-cent half grew 17.6% and the 99-cent half grew 7.2%, so net sales rose 17.3%, gross profit rose only 14.0%, and the gross margin FELL 35bp. In the same 8-K, management agreed to pay $220.5m cash for MicroAge to buy the margin it cannot grow. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, CHEAP AGAINST ITS PEERS, WITH A MIX PROBLEM IT HAS JUST PAID $220.5M TO FIX) — base-case value ~$61.14 vs ~$54.35 today. KEY METRICS: - THE SPINE: two segments, one revenue line, two recognition bases. Specialty Technology Solutions turned $3,124.9m of net sales into $337.6m of gross profit = 10.80 CENTS per sales dollar. Intelisys & Advisory turned $101.1m into $99.7m, because its ENTIRE cost of sales was $1.4m = 98.60 CENTS. A 9.13x gap, off segment note 16. - THE MIX: Q4 net sales +17.3% to $953.1m, but Specialty Technology grew 17.6% and Intelisys 7.2%. Gross profit rose only 14.0% and the margin FELL 35bp to 12.57%. For the full year it ROSE, 13.44% to 13.56%, on the opposite mix. The company's own sub-headline: 'Hardware Demand Drove 17% Net Sales Growth for Q4.' - THE COMPLICATION: Intelisys operating income is $28.6m in FY2026 vs $30.6m in FY2024 - DOWN 6.57% - on revenue UP 9.62%. Its margin fell 489bp, 33.16% to 28.26%, as costs grew 16.22% against gross profit up 8.62%. That is the segment the $220.5m is meant to enlarge. - THE DEAL: $220.5m all cash for MicroAge on the revolver, in Item 1.01 of the same 8-K as the results. 20.1% of market value, 1.079x the last TWO YEARS of buybacks. Net debt $13.0m to about $233.5m = 1.54x adjusted EBITDA (covenant 3.50x). FY27 guidance EXCLUDES it, and no MicroAge financials are disclosed. - VALUATION: fair value $61.14 vs $54.35, +12.50%, BUY 3/5. Enterprise value $1.11bn from the filed balance sheet = 8.27x unadjusted EBITDA vs a 12.24x peer median (SNX, ARW, AVT, NSIT, CNXN, all share counts checked). A 32.4% discount on a 10.40% free cash flow yield. Bear $48.47 / base $60.77 / bull $74.57. - FALSIFIED: NOT a record quarter. SEC XBRL puts $953.1m FIFTH - December 2018 printed $1,046.0m - and FY2026 net sales are 1.03% BELOW FY2024. The 12-month CLOSING high is $58.89 on 4 August, BEFORE the print, so even the +9.67% reaction closed 4.25% under it. - THE TAPE AND THE STREET: 8-K accepted 08:30 ET, an hour before the open. It OPENED +26.10%, printed +29.87%, CLOSED +9.67% - keeping 32.4% of its best level - on the largest volume session of all 266 (5.54x median), then -3.62%. The high came in the first five minutes, half the gap gone by 10:00, BEFORE the 10:30 call. And there is exactly ONE live published target: Barclays $43.00, dated 8 October 2025, older than three of the four quarters just reported and 20.9% BELOW the tape. What to watch: UP: the Intelisys operating margin turning back up through 30%, and MicroAge closing with disclosed revenue and margin that justify the price. DOWN: the gross margin falling again while free cash flow tracks toward the guided $85m floor rather than through it. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 23 · 13 min
Youdao (DAO) Q2 2026: A Record Quarter, Negative Equity, 92x Earnings
Youdao (DAO) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): total net revenues RMB1,466.9m (US$216.2m), UP 3.48%, against a RMB1,560m consensus. Income from operations RMB111.5m, UP 287.33% - the highest quarter Youdao has ever disclosed and its eighth consecutive profitable one. Gross margin 48.9% from 43.0%. Non-GAAP RMB0.76 per share against a RMB0.26 bar; GAAP RMB0.62. Youdao printed the best operating quarter in its history - income from operations RMB111.5m, up 287.33%, an eighth straight profitable quarter - and both superlatives survive testing against the filed series. But revenue grew only 3.48%: learning services alone contributed 118.77% of the entire gross-profit increase while smart devices took RMB24.2m back out. And the balance sheet still carries a TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS' DEFICIT of RMB1.81bn (US$266.3m). At the RMB127.3m it closed in the half - a half containing that record quarter - reaching zero book value takes 7.10 years. THE CALL: SELL (4/5, A REAL TURNAROUND, NO EQUITY BEHIND IT, AND A PRICE ABOVE EVERY PUBLISHED TARGET) — base-case value ~$11.21 vs ~$18.34 today. KEY METRICS: - THE SPINE: total shareholders' deficit RMB1,806.8m (US$266.3m) at June 30, against total assets of RMB1,956.6m. It narrowed RMB127.3m in the half - 7.10 YEARS to zero book value, and that half held the best quarter in company history. Cross-checked on H1 net income: 7.45 years. - THE RECORD, TESTED: income from operations RMB111.5m vs RMB28.8m, UP 287.33% (3.87x). Prior peak was Q3 2024 at RMB107.3m, so the record is real by 3.98%. Streak counted off the filed series: exactly 8 quarters. - HOW IT WAS MADE: revenue UP 3.48% but gross profit UP 17.64%. Learning services added RMB127.7m of gross profit = 118.77% of the whole RMB107.5m rise; smart devices took RMB24.2m out. Two of three segments shrank. - THE FUNDING: every borrowing is owed to NetEase - RMB878.0m short term plus US$118.9m long term of a US$300.0m revolver = US$248.3m, or 1.98x the company's US$125.2m of liquidity. The release carries a going-concern dependency sentence. - THE PRICE: US$2.18bn market cap on US$23.7m of trailing earnings = 92.1x, and 44.2x even on the record quarter annualised. At the 17.80x of New Oriental and NetEase, today's price needs US$122.5m a year - 5.17x trailing, 1.99x the Street's own 2028 forecast. - THE VALUATION: fair value $11.21 vs $18.34, a gap of -38.86%. SELL, conviction 4/5. Bear $7.47, base $10.37, bull $16.64. The tape sits +38.31% above the six-analyst average target of $13.26 and +23.09% above the highest at $14.90. What to watch: UP: contract liabilities turning up alongside learning-services growth, plus the deficit closing materially faster than RMB127.3m a half. DOWN: the parent revolving facility drawn harder while the deficit stops narrowing, or learning services decelerating from 20.94% with two of three segments already shrinking. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 23 · 13 min
Navios Maritime Partners (NMM): Earnings Up 147% And Still 0.71x Book
Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NMM) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): revenue $410.2m, UP 25.22%, on available days DOWN 1.76% and a fleet six vessels smaller. Earnings per common unit $5.78 GAAP and $4.65 adjusted, against a $4.35 bar. Adjusted EBITDA $242.2m, UP 40.30%. Fleet utilisation 99.4%. Navios Partners grew earnings per common unit 147.01% to $5.78 and its units still change hands at 0.71x the book value of its own ships - $88.78 against $124.23 a unit. The enterprise is priced at 0.94x the depreciated cost of the fleet alone. The reason sits in the company's own flagship disclosure: $843.5m of newbuild tankers contracted to earn $700.2m of revenue, which is 69.88% of their cost back as profit inside the firm charters. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A REAL DISCOUNT TO BOOK, AND A REINVESTMENT RATE THAT SPENDS IT) — base-case value ~$86.72 vs ~$88.78 today. KEY METRICS: - THE SPINE: $843.5m of newbuild tankers, 7 vessels, chartered 6.1 years at $45,224/day for $700.2m of contracted REVENUE - 83.01% of cost. Net of the filed $7,152/day running cost the firm charters return $589.5m, or 69.88%. - THE DISCOUNT: partners' capital $3,593.5m over 28,925,804 units = $124.23 book a unit vs $88.78. EV $4,306.3m is 0.94x the $4,575.0m of vessels at net book. - THE QUARTER: revenue $410.2m UP 25.22% on available days DOWN 1.76%. All rate: dry bulk TCE UP 53.1%, tankers UP 25.0%, containerships FLAT at -0.4%. - THE REVERSE SOLVE: at $88.78 the EV pays for $1.01bn of adjusted profit at a borrowed 4.28x, 12.81% more than the $892.6m run rate - roughly the newbuild programme, paid for in advance. - THE VALUATION: fair value $86.72 vs $88.78, a gap of -2.32%. HOLD, conviction 3/5. Bear $61.43, base $87.32, bull $110.81. What to watch: UP: the new $200.0m repurchase actually running near this price, which retires 7.96% of the units and books $79.9m of value at 0.71x book; or newbuild charters struck at rates that repay the hull inside the firm period. DOWN: dry bulk mean reverting from a rate that rose 53.1% in twelve months while the order book is still being funded with debt. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 23 · 13 min
The Buckle (BKE): The 10% Dividend Yield That Nobody Actually Promised
The Buckle (BKE) Q2 FY2026 — Q2 FY2026 (13 weeks ended August 1, 2026): net sales $319.8m, UP 4.60% and the biggest second quarter in a decade, comparable store sales UP 2.1%, gross margin 47.43% to 47.85% - and operating profit still FELL 0.96% to $55.8m. Diluted earnings $0.87 against an $0.81 bar. The shares rose 2.74% on the reaction session, the 15th best of 252, after giving back 48% of their intraday high. Buckle's screen yield is 10.04%, and it is two different numbers wearing one ticker. The rate the board has actually committed to is $0.35 a quarter - $1.40 a year, a yield of 3.20%. The other 6.85% came from a $3.00 special dividend declared on December 8, 2025, paid on January 29, 2026, and re-decided by the board every December. It has NOT been declared for this year. Meanwhile the engine that pays for it just stalled: sales hit a record $319.8m and operating profit still fell 0.96%. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, AN EXCELLENT RETAILER, A HALF PROMISED YIELD, AND A PRICE THAT ALREADY PAYS FOR TODAY) — base-case value ~$43.09 vs ~$43.81 today. KEY METRICS: - THE SPINE: $4.40 a share was paid over the last twelve months - a 10.04% yield - but $3.00 of it was a SPECIAL dividend. The committed rate is $1.40 a year, or 3.20%. - THE PROOF, TO THE THOUSAND: retained earnings FELL $4.505m (from $261.868m to $257.363m) on net income of $220.837m, so $225.342m was charged out - a payout of 102.04%. - THE ENGINE STALLED: net sales UP 4.60% to a record $319.8m and gross margin UP 0.42 points, yet operating profit FELL 0.96%, because SG&A rose $8.551m against $8.012m more gross profit. - PRICE, NOT UNITS: average unit retail UP about 4.5% and transaction value UP 3.5%, while units per transaction FELL about 1%, on comparable sales of UP 2.1%. Online grew just 2.3%. - THE VALUATION: enterprise value $2.39bn is 9.35x clean trailing operating profit of $255.6m. Fair value $43.09 against $43.81, a gap of -1.64%. HOLD, conviction 3 of 5. What to watch: UP: a fourth consecutive special dividend at the December board meeting, which would confirm the pattern the price quietly assumes; or two quarters with SG&A growth back below gross profit growth. DOWN: inventory up 13.28% against sales up 4.60% failing to clear at full price, putting markdowns in the very quarter the special is decided; average unit retail up 4.5% with units per transaction down 1.0% is a price led comp, and price led comps stop when the customer stops accepting the price. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 23 · 13 min
Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX): The $40 Million Cheque That Made The Profit
Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) H1 2026 — H1 2026 (half-year ended June 30, 2026): revenue US$477.4m, UP 22.28%, gross margin 53.44% to 54.54%, and profit after tax of US$38.3m - more than any full year Telix has ever reported. Diluted earnings US$0.1074 a share against a US$0.0447 bar. The ADS rose 2.48% on the reaction session, then fell 8.78% the session after. Telix just earned more in six months than in any full year of its life - and almost all of it arrived in one envelope. A single initial, non-refundable US$40.0m payment from Regeneron covers 94.7% of the US$42.2m Telix added to research spending this half, and is larger than the whole US$38.3m net profit it helped produce. Take that one line out and profit before tax, adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow ALL cross back below zero. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A REAL BUSINESS, A BOUGHT PROFIT, AND A PRICE THAT ALREADY ASSUMES THE TRANSITION WORKS) — base-case value ~$11.1 vs ~$11.33 today. KEY METRICS: - THE SPINE: profit before tax was US$29.2m and contained a US$40.0m Regeneron payment. Without it the half was a US$10.8m pre-tax LOSS. - THE SAME ITEM, THREE WAYS: adjusted EBITDA +146.40% as reported becomes -43.35% without it; operating cash flow of US$23.0m becomes a US$17.0m outflow. - THE SPEND: gross profit rose US$51.7m and operating costs rose US$62.4m - US$1.21 spent per extra dollar of gross profit, so core operating profit fell 93.15% to US$0.8m. - THE SEGMENTS: Precision Medicine earned US$131.9m on US$388.6m of revenue, a 33.94% margin; Therapeutics, Manufacturing Solutions and head office consumed US$120.4m, or 91.32% of it. - THE VALUATION: enterprise value US$4.11bn is 4.29x guided revenue; at 12x EBITDA the price needs a 35.71% group margin against 2.50% delivered. Fair value US$11.10 against US$11.33. What to watch: UP: Pixclara's FDA goal date of September 11, 2026, which would add a third selling product to a Precision Medicine engine already earning a 33.94% segment margin; or gross profit growth moving back ahead of cost growth. DOWN: another half like this one, in which operating costs grow US$62.4m against US$51.7m of extra gross profit; Manufacturing Solutions deteriorating further; or any use of the undrawn at-the-market equity facility. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 23 · 14 min
KE Holdings (BEKE): The Revenue That Left Was Carrying Almost No Profit
KE Holdings (BEKE) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): net revenues RMB 24.54bn, DOWN 5.66%, yet segment contribution rose 16.56% to RMB 8.22bn and net income doubled to RMB 2.62bn. Adjusted earnings of $0.42 per ADS beat a $0.31 bar by 35.5%. Results were released before the open on Friday August 21; the shares rose 4.47% to $17.75, with the overnight gap accounting for 124% of the whole move. KE Holdings' revenue fell RMB 1.47bn and the profit its own segment table says those revenues generate ROSE RMB 1.17bn. The two lines that shrank - home renovation and home rental - gave up RMB 2.22bn of revenue between them and earned RMB 61m MORE than a year ago. Renovation surrendered RMB 1.37bn of revenue and only RMB 203m of contribution, a marginal 14.78% against a 39.60% segment average. The mechanism is an accounting basis change: Carefree Rent is migrating from a principal (gross) model to an agent (net service fee) model, so units under management passed 790,000, up about 34%, while the revenue they book fell 14.83%. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, AN EXCELLENT QUARTER THAT THE PRICE HAS LARGELY ALREADY COLLECTED) — base-case value ~$18.72 vs ~$17.75 today. KEY METRICS: - THE SPINE: net revenues fell 5.66% to RMB 24.54bn while total segment contribution ROSE 16.56% to RMB 8.22bn. Contribution margin 27.10% to 33.49%. - THE SHED REVENUE: renovation and rental gave up RMB 2.22bn of revenue and earned RMB 61m MORE contribution. Renovation's marginal margin on the revenue it lost was 14.78% against a 39.60% average. - THE MECHANISM: Carefree Rent units under management above 790,000, up ~34%, on revenue down 14.83%. Lease obligations fell 28.17% to RMB 12.66bn as rentals went asset-light. What to watch: UP: the net-fee migration finishing (more than half of Carefree Rent is already across), which stops revenue falling for accounting reasons; or Chinese home prices stabilising, which matters more to a percentage-of-price business than any cost programme. DOWN: management put existing-home transaction VOLUME up about 25% against transaction VALUE of +7.95%, implying the average home sold was about 13.6% cheaper; mobile monthly users fell 6.16% and active agents 7.5%; G&A carries a roughly RMB 280m bad-debt provision on developer receivables; and there is no guidance of any kind. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 22 · 13 min
NetEase (NTES): The 23% Miss Never Touched The Games Business
NetEase (NTES) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): net revenues RMB 30.11bn (+7.94%), about 2.3% ahead of consensus, while adjusted earnings of $1.77 per ADS missed a $2.31 bar by 23.4%. Operating profit rose 33.42% to RMB 12.09bn. Results were furnished before the open on Thursday August 20; the shares fell 5.85% that session on 2.1x median volume and then rose 6.98% on Friday August 21 to close at $128.17, leaving the two sessions +0.72% together. The games segment sold RMB 2.22bn more and paid RMB 0.82bn LESS to deliver it, because self-developed titles displaced licensed ones. Gross profit therefore grew RMB 3.03bn - 137% of the revenue it grew on - and games gross margin went 70.22% to 76.13%, which Macquarie called a record. Group operating profit rose 33.42% on revenue of 7.94%. The entire 23% earnings shortfall happened below that line. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, THE OPERATING LINE HAD ITS BEST QUARTER IN YEARS AND EVERY BIT OF THE MISS SAT UNDERNEATH IT) — base-case value ~$149.31 vs ~$128.17 today. KEY METRICS: - THE COST LINE: games and related value-added services revenue rose 9.72% to RMB 25.02bn while the COST of that revenue FELL 12.05% in absolute renminbi, from RMB 6.79bn to RMB 5.97bn. Gross profit rose RMB 3.03bn on RMB 2.22bn of extra revenue, which is 137%. Games gross margin 70.22% to 76.13%, the highest of the three quarters shown; self-operated titles were 97.7% of the segment against 97.1%. Group operating margin 32.49% to 40.16% on operating expenses that rose just 1.52%. - WHERE THE MISS CAME FROM: other income and expenses swung RMB 4.05bn against the company, from RMB 1.59bn of income to RMB 2.46bn of expense, on RMB 2.02bn of fair-value declines and RMB 1.28bn of impairments - RMB 3.31bn against RMB 0.22bn a year ago, and every yuan of it added straight back as non-cash in the cash flow statement. The effective tax rate went 14.66% to 25.54%, worth RMB 1.05bn or RMB 1.58 an ADS, 43% of the whole distance to the bar. - THE BASIS, PROVEN: one ADS is five ordinary shares and NetEase reports in renminbi. Its non-GAAP excludes exactly ONE item, share-based compensation of RMB 0.77bn. The four 2025 quarters in renminbi sum to RMB 58.00 against a filed RMB 57.99 - one fen; the same four quarters in US dollars sum to $8.12 against a filed $8.29, 2.05% short, because each is translated at its own quarter-end rate. Net cash of RMB 167.5bn is $38.31 an ADS, 29.9% of the share price. What to watch: UP: contract liabilities stop shrinking while the margin holds, or the effective tax rate returns toward last year's 14.66% - worth RMB 1.05bn a quarter, and nothing at all to the operating line we value. DOWN: contract liabilities fell 5.93% across the half to RMB 19.30bn and operating cash flow fell 8.18% in the quarter while operating profit rose 33.42%; NetEase publishes no guidance of any kind, so there is nothing forward to check either against. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 22 · 13 min
COTY Stock Q4 FY2026: Coty Earnings - USD741M Went To A Buyback Hedge
Coty (COTY) Q4 FY2026 — Coty reported Q4 FY2026 on an 8-K accepted 20:31:43 UTC, which is 16:31 ET, on Wednesday August 19, so Thursday August 20 is the reaction session and Friday August 21 is the last settled one. Shares ran plus 10.58 pct into the print with no company disclosure behind it, gapped to USD2.55 the next morning at minus 15.84 pct, closed minus 9.24 pct at USD2.75, then finished the week at USD2.74 - exactly the Tuesday close. FMP changePercent printed plus 7.84 for that session; it is the open-to-close move and the sign is inverted. Coty Inc. (NYSE: COTY) is one of the largest beauty groups in the world. Its Prestige division sells designer fragrance under licence from Burberry, Hugo Boss, Gucci, Calvin Klein, Chloe and Marc Jacobs, and its Consumer Beauty division sells mass cosmetics under CoverGirl, Rimmel, Max Factor and Sally Hansen. It is controlled by JAB Beauty B.V., which holds roughly 54 pct of the stock. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE - THE CASH DRAIN IS ENDING AS THE PROFIT BASE SHRINKS) — base-case value ~$2.70 vs ~$2.74 today. KEY METRICS: - Q4 FY2026 net revenue USD1.2692B against USD1.2524B, up 1 pct reported and minus 1 pct like-for-like, beating a USD1.1936B forecast by 6.34 pct and beating the company's own guide of a mid-single-digit LFL decline. Adjusted EPS minus USD0.02 against a minus USD0.006 bar; statutory EPS minus USD0.16. Adjusted operating income USD39.5M, down 42 pct, and adjusted EBITDA USD93.6M, down 26 pct. Free cash flow USD72.6M against USD34.9M. - FY2026 net revenue USD5.8066B, down 2 pct reported and 5 pct like-for-like. Adjusted EPS USD0.21 against USD0.22; statutory EPS minus USD0.70. Adjusted EBITDA USD846.9M, down 22 pct. Operating cash flow USD537.8M and free cash flow USD348.2M, up 25.4 pct. Financial net debt USD2.9121B on leverage of 3.4x. Consumer Beauty adjusted operating income minus USD43.2M against plus USD79.7M a year earlier. - The forward repurchase contracts: USD690.0M of buybacks hedged in 2022 and 2023 with three banks, of which one completed in February 2024 for USD200.0M cash and 27.0M shares, recorded at USD350.6M or USD12.99 each and worth USD74.0M today. Cash paid FY2024 to FY2026 was USD242.6M, USD288.4M and USD210.1M - USD741.1M in total, or 30.7 pct of market value. Margin calls alone were USD191.1M and USD194.4M. Remaining notional USD104.5M, maturing January 2027. What to watch: The Q4 FY2026 8-K accepted 16:31 ET on 19 August 2026 and its Exhibit 99.1, read against the Form 10-K filed the following morning - specifically Note 20, which describes three forward repurchase contracts written on Coty's own shares, and the consolidated statement of cash flows, which shows what they have cost. Revenue USD1.2692B beat by 6.34 pct; adjusted EPS was minus USD0.02. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 22 · 13 min
Alibaba (BABA): The 92% Earnings Miss That Wasn’t - And The One That Was
Alibaba Group (BABA) Q1 FY2027 — Q1 FY2027 (June quarter 2026, ended June 30): revenue RMB268,953M / $39.64B, +8.6% and ahead of a $38.63B bar. Non-GAAP EPS per ADS $1.26 vs $1.85 expected, -31.9% and down 42.2% y/y. Adjusted EBITA RMB27.3bn, -29.6%. Released pre-market August 20: the shares gapped -4.21%, bought back 130% of that gap and closed +1.26% at $130.53. The next session opened -3.97% and closed -8.57% at $119.34 - the worst session of the last twelve months, on 15.8% more volume, below the reaction day's low. Two numbers in this quarter round to 92%, and only one is real. The data-screen miss of -91.8% ($0.16 actual vs a $1.94 estimate) is an 8-to-1 units error: $0.16 is per ORDINARY share and the bar is per ADS. Corrected, it is $1.26 against $1.85, a 31.9% miss. But 92.4% of the actual adjusted-profit decline really did come from ONE segment - AI Labs and Applications, a reporting line created this quarter. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, THE MISS WAS SMALLER THAN THE SCREEN SAID AND THE SPENDING IS LARGER THAN THE RETURN) — base-case value ~$101.50 vs ~$119.34 today. KEY METRICS: - THE UNITS ERROR: the vendor carries epsActual $0.16 against epsEstimated $1.94, a 91.8% miss. Alibaba's release prints all four figures in one bullet - RMB3.71 and RMB0.46 statutory, RMB8.52 and RMB1.07 non-GAAP - and footnote 5 states each ADS represents eight ordinary shares. Divide either pair and you recover 8.07x and 7.96x. In the same unit the comparison is $1.26 delivered against a $1.85 bar: -31.9%, or 2.9x smaller than the screen. Revenue BEAT on the same day, $39.64B against $38.63B. - WHERE THE PROFIT WENT: group adjusted EBITA fell RMB11,515M. AI Labs and Applications accounts for RMB10,637M of that (92.4%) as its loss went RMB3,224M to RMB13,861M - 4.2x its own revenue. All others contributed RMB4,030M (35.0%) including a RMB4.5bn goodwill writedown. Alibaba E-commerce Group, which CONTAINS the quick-commerce subsidy war everyone blamed, moved RMB239M - 2.1%. AI Cloud OFFSET RMB3,209M. Excluding AI Labs, group adjusted EBITA went RMB42.1bn to RMB41.2bn: -2.1%, not -29.6%. - WHAT THE FORECAST REQUIRES: annualise this quarter's non-GAAP income and Alibaba earns $5.06 per ADS. Take the whole AI Labs loss to zero and tax the difference at 20% and it earns $7.76. The Street's fiscal 2028 row is $9.18 from 18 forecasts - 1.18x the full-breakeven figure. Our cases are $5.60 at 11.0x, $7.00 at 14.5x and the Street's own $9.18 at 17.0x, weighted 30/45/25 for a fair value of $103.16. Three houses acted on the print, all three MAINTAINED, two RAISED targets. What to watch: UP: AI Cloud adjusted EBITA grew 133% to RMB5.6bn on revenue up 44.9%, AliExpress turned profitable, and net cash plus unconsolidated stakes are worth $25.09 per ADS - 21% of the share price. DOWN: capex of RMB67.7bn (+75.0%) is 4.5x the RMB15.0bn of incremental cloud revenue it bought, free cash flow was an OUTFLOW of RMB44.7bn, and depreciation - inside the adjusted number - is up 71.4% y/y. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 22 · 13 min
OSI Systems (OSIS): They Beat By A Penny And The Backlog Didn’t Grow
OSI Systems (OSIS) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 FY2026 (quarter and year ended June 30, 2026): non-GAAP EPS $3.78 vs a $3.77 bar, a one-cent beat, on Q4 revenue of $484.1M that FELL 4.1%. Full-year revenue $1.79B (+4.25%) and non-GAAP EPS $10.35 (+10.6%). The shares gapped -10.13% at the open on August 21, made a fresh 52-week low at $186.50, then bought back 49% of the gap to close -5.21% at $206.73 on 8.4x median volume. A one-cent beat carries no information. So we read the backlog instead - and there are two of them. The release leads with a record $1.9B. The audited ASC 606 measure in Note 5 of the 10-K reads approximately $1.8B at June 2026 AND at June 2025: one sentence, one figure, both dates, on a scope that got WIDER this year. Only 59% converts inside twelve months. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE PRINT WAS NOISE, THE AUDITED BACKLOG IS FLAT, AND THE PRICE HAS ALREADY DONE MOST OF THE WORK) — base-case value ~$211.17 vs ~$206.73 today. KEY METRICS: - THE TWO BACKLOGS: headline $1.9B (company-defined, unaudited, 5-year horizon) vs remaining performance obligations of ~$1.8B in BOTH FY2026 and FY2025. 59% converts within 12 months = $1,062M against a $1.903B revenue guide, so the guided year is 56% contracted and $840M must be won AND shipped inside it. Book-to-bill reads 1.06x, but both endpoints are rounded to $0.1B so anything from 1.00x to 1.11x fits the disclosure. - THE SEGMENTS: Optoelectronics and Manufacturing carried the year - revenue +9.40%, non-GAAP operating profit +10.72%, margin 13.1% to 13.3%. Security leaked - revenue +4.33% but operating profit +0.54% and margin 18.5% to 17.9%. In Q4 Security revenue fell 7.42%, a larger dollar decline than the whole company's. Healthcare revenue fell 3.35% for the year but its Q4 margin went 0.9% to 10.0%. - THE DENOMINATOR: the 10-K cover shows 15,941,968 shares against a weighted diluted 17,280,000. Hold non-GAAP profit completely flat and EPS still rises from $10.35 to $10.94, +5.7%, from the share count alone - against a guide of +7.5% to +11.0%. On that conservative count the guide implies profit growth of +1.7% to +5.0% versus revenue guided +5.0% to +8.1%: slower than revenue at every point. What to watch: UP: the delayed Middle East shipments are described as deferrals, not cancellations, and remain in backlog with revised schedules - if they simply ship, revenue lands at the top of the guide and the bull case is $300. DOWN: Security is 70% of revenue, grew 4.33% and delivered 0.54% more operating profit as its margin fell 67bp; the FY2027 guide's entire revenue range sits below consensus. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 22 · 14 min
AAP Stock Q2 2026: Advance Auto Parts Earnings - The Turnaround Clock Ran Out
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Q2 2026 — Advance Auto Parts reported Q2 fiscal 2026 on an 8-K accepted 06:31:32 ET on Thursday August 20, BEFORE the open, so Thursday August 20 is the reaction session. Shares closed USD42.39 against USD56.18, DOWN 24.55 pct, on 16,664,900 shares, 10.93x the 30-session norm. The stock GAPPED to a USD46.85 open then kept falling all day to a USD40.66 low at 13:30. Friday closed USD42.58, up only 0.45 pct. The vendor EOD row reads MINUS 9.52 pct, measured off the OPEN. Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP) is an automotive aftermarket parts retailer serving professional installers and do-it-yourself customers, operating 4,311 company stores plus 786 independently owned Carquest locations, headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina. It sold Worldpac in 2024 and has spent USD1.0 billion on a restructuring that closed about 500 stores. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE - THE MARGIN TREND IS REAL BUT THE PLAN IS GUIDED BACKWARDS) — base-case value ~$35.04 vs ~$42.58 today. KEY METRICS: - Q2 fiscal 2026, 12 weeks ended 18 July 2026: net sales USD2,000M against USD2,010M, roughly flat, on comparable store sales of MINUS 0.5 pct. Gross margin 46.2 pct from 43.5, including USD26M of IEEPA tariff refunds. Adjusted operating income USD112M, a 5.6 pct margin from 3.0. GAAP diluted EPS USD0.90 against USD0.25; ADJUSTED diluted EPS USD1.03 against USD0.69 and a USD0.81 bar, a 27.6 pct beat. About USD0.31 of that USD1.03 is the tariff refund. - THE SPINE: the first half already delivered a 4.55 pct adjusted operating margin on 28 weeks. Reaffirming a 3.80-4.50 pct FULL-YEAR band therefore guides the back 24 weeks to 3.68 pct - 87 basis points BELOW the half just filed. Comparable sales went plus 3.5 pct in Q1, the strongest in five years, to MINUS 0.5 pct. And the EPS raise is not operating: the release says it reflects higher pre-tax INTEREST INCOME, up from about USD80M to USD100M. Store openings were CUT from 40-45 to 30-35. - THE BALANCE SHEET: interest expense USD48M against USD19M, after the 7.000 pct 2030 and 7.375 pct 2033 notes, USD975M each, issued 4 August 2025. USD3,421M of principal at about 6.02 pct costs USD206M a year against USD3,120M of cash earning 3.21 pct, or USD100M - a NET DRAG of USD106M on net debt of only USD267M, 97 pct of the USD109M trailing net income. Supplier-finance obligations inside payables USD2.6B. Net leverage 2.1x from 2.4x. Free cash flow guided to about USD100M against a MINUS USD298M outflow in fiscal 2025. What to watch: The Q2 fiscal 2026 8-K accepted 06:31:32 ET on 20 August 2026 and its Exhibit 99.1, the Form 10-Q filed the same day, and the fiscal 2025 Form 10-K, read against the guidance tables of 13 February and 21 May 2026. Net sales USD2,000M and adjusted diluted EPS USD1.03 against a USD0.81 adjusted bar. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance went to USD2.60-USD3.30 from USD2.40-USD3.10 while sales, comparable sales, margin and free cash flow were left UNCHANGED. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 22 · 13 min
ROST Stock Q2 FY2026: Ross Stores Earnings - 78% Of The Beat Was A Refund
Ross Stores (ROST) Q2 FY2026 — Ross Stores reported Q2 FY2026 on an 8-K accepted 16:11:01 ET on Thursday August 20, so Friday August 21 is the reaction session and it is also the last settled one. Shares closed USD239.04 against USD228.99, UP 4.39 pct, on 6,354,194 shares, 2.65x the 20-session median. The OPEN was USD243.85, up 6.49 pct - and USD243.86 was the high of the entire day, one cent above the opening print. By the 10:25 bar the price was USD234.49, with 63 pct of the gap gone. Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST) is the largest off-price apparel and home fashion chain in the United States, selling other retailers' excess brand-name merchandise at 20 to 60 pct off. Founded 1957, headquartered in Dublin, California, about 111,000 employees. Two banners: 1,952 Ross Dress for Less stores in 44 states plus 376 dd's DISCOUNTS. Jim Conroy is CEO. The fiscal year ends in late January. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE - A REAL QUARTER PRICED AS IF ALL OF IT RECURS) — base-case value ~$218.19 vs ~$239.04 today. KEY METRICS: - Q2 FY2026 sales USD6.265B against USD5.529B, up 13.3 pct, on comparable store sales up 10 pct driven by traffic, lapping plus 2 pct. Operating profit USD1.104B, margin 17.6 pct from 11.5. Net income USD851M. Diluted EPS USD2.66 on 319,450,000 shares against USD1.56. Ross publishes ONE earnings figure - no adjusted series and no reconciliation table anywhere in the release. - THE SPINE: operating profit includes approximately USD253M of IEEPA tariff refunds - 405 of the 610 basis points of margin gain, and about USD0.60 a share. Against the company's OWN guidance midpoint of USD1.89 the beat is USD0.77, so the refund is 77.9 pct of it and operations added USD0.17. Ex-refund the quarter earned USD2.06 on a margin up 205 bps against a plan of 130 to 150. - The full-year guide went USD7.02-7.36 (3 March) to USD7.50-7.74 (21 May) to USD8.61-8.77 (20 August). The May-to-August raise of USD1.07 is USD0.60 refund (56.1 pct), USD0.17 of Q2 operating beat and USD0.30 of genuine second-half increase. Ex-refund the year is USD8.01-8.17, up 22.4 pct on USD6.61 rather than 31.5 pct. Q3 guided USD1.75-1.83, Q4 USD2.17-2.26. What to watch: The Q2 FY2026 8-K accepted 16:11:01 ET on 20 August 2026 and its Exhibit 99.1, read against the outlook paragraphs of the 8-Ks of 3 March and 21 May 2026. Sales USD6.265B and diluted EPS USD2.66 against a company guide of USD1.85-1.93 and a vendor bar of USD1.95. Full-year guidance went to USD8.61-8.77. The Q2 Form 10-Q had NOT been filed as of 21 August. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 22 · 14 min
NDSN Stock Q3 FY2026: Nordson Earnings - One Segment Did All The Growth
Nordson (NDSN) Q3 FY2026 — Nordson reported fiscal Q3 2026 on an 8-K accepted 16:32:10 ET on Wednesday August 19 - 32 minutes AFTER the bell, so Thursday Aug 20 is the reaction session and Friday Aug 21 has also settled. Shares closed USD334.70 against USD309.92, UP 8.00 pct, on 1,255,900 shares, 4.11x the 20-session median. The overnight gap was only a QUARTER of it: the stock opened USD316.00, up 1.96 pct, then built the other 5.92 pct during the session. Friday closed USD332.24, down 0.73 pct. Nordson (NASDAQ: NDSN) engineers and sells equipment that dispenses, applies and controls adhesives, coatings, sealants, polymers and biomaterials, and that tests and inspects for quality. Founded 1954, headquartered in Westlake, Ohio, about 8,000 employees, roughly 67 pct of revenue earned outside the United States. Three segments: Industrial Precision Solutions, Medical and Fluid Solutions, and Advanced Technology Solutions. Sundaram Nagarajan is CEO. The fiscal year ends 31 October. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE - THE RE-RATING IS DESERVED AND NOW PAID FOR) — base-case value ~$336.65 vs ~$332.24 today. KEY METRICS: - Q3 FY2026 sales USD817.667M against USD741.509M, up 10.3 pct - 11.7 points organic, minus 1.2 from a divestiture. Gross margin 55.5 pct from 54.8. EBITDA USD262.483M, 32.1 pct of sales. GAAP EPS USD2.73; adjusted EPS USD3.25 on 56,027,000 diluted shares. The USD0.52 bridge is USD19.345M of acquisition amortisation plus a USD14.892M non-cash loss on minority investments - the same line was a USD12.411M GAIN in the first half. - THE SPINE: Advanced Technology Solutions is 26.9 pct of sales (USD219.880M of USD817.667M) and delivered 100.7 pct of the company's ENTIRE EBITDA increase - USD24.149M against a company-wide USD23.972M - because Industrial Precision Solutions went USD0.230M backwards and corporate cost rose USD5.085M. Its sales grew 28.4 pct, its EBITDA 58.1 pct, its margin 24.3 to 29.9 pct. Nine months: 75.2 pct. - Backlog is up 35 pct year on year - after plus 4 pct in the January quarter and plus 18 pct in April. Nordson sizes it in DOLLARS once a year: approximately USD600M at 31 October 2025, about 11.2 weeks of shipments. Full-year guidance went USD11.30-11.80 to USD11.80-12.00 a share, a 3.03 pct midpoint move against an 8.00 pct move in the stock. Implied Q4: USD827.0M and USD3.42. Nine-month free cash flow USD530.160M, 125 pct conversion. What to watch: The Q3 FY2026 8-K accepted 16:32:10 ET on 19 August 2026 and its Exhibit 99.1, read against the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 July 2026 - which only reached EDGAR at 11:43 ET next morning, by which time 93 pct of the move had printed. Sales of USD817.667M and adjusted EPS of USD3.25 both cleared the TOP of the company's own May range of USD760-790M and USD2.95-3.15. Guidance rose for a fourth straight quarter. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 21 · 13 min
WOLF Stock Q4 FY2026: Wolfspeed Earnings - The Share Count Doubles Again
Wolfspeed (WOLF) Q4 FY2026 — Wolfspeed reported fiscal Q4 2026 on an 8-K accepted 16:40:15 ET on Wednesday August 19 (EDGAR filing-index page) - 40 minutes AFTER the bell, so Thursday Aug 20 is the reaction session and Friday Aug 21 has also settled. Shares closed USD26.35 against USD29.09, DOWN 9.42 pct, on 9,751,245 shares, 2.10x the 20-session median. 94.5 pct of that was the overnight gap: it OPENED at USD26.50, down 8.90 pct, before a share traded, then fell only 0.57 pct through the session. Friday closed USD25.76, down 2.24 pct. Wolfspeed (NYSE: WOLF) is the pioneer of silicon carbide: substrates and power devices for electric vehicles, industrial drives, renewable energy and, increasingly, AI data-centre power delivery. It reports under US GAAP in US dollars on a fiscal year ending the last Sunday in June, so the year ended 28 June 2026 is fiscal 2026. Two product lines: Power Products and Materials Products. Robert Feurle is CEO; Gregor van Issum is chief financial officer. The company emerged from Chapter 11 on 29 September 2025. THE CALL: HOLD (2/5, LOW - THE DISTRIBUTION IS THREE AND A HALF TIMES WIDE) — base-case value ~$22.97 vs ~$25.76 today. KEY METRICS: - Q4 FY2026 revenue USD149.6M against USD197.0M, down 24.1 pct, and essentially flat on USD150.2M the prior quarter. GAAP gross margin (25) pct from (13) pct; non-GAAP (20) pct from (1) pct. It costs USD1.25 to make a dollar of revenue. GAAP net loss USD145.4M, USD2.81 a share; non-GAAP net loss USD116.9M, USD2.26 a share, both on 51,799,000 diluted shares. Adjusted EBITDA (USD62.4M). Operating cash flow (USD54.1M). Q1 FY2027 guide USD140-160M with gross margin still negative. - The capital structure is the story. The Plan cancelled 156,479,390 old shares and issued 25,840,656; existing holders kept 1,306,896 of them, 5.06 pct. By the 10-K cover of 13 August 2026 the count is 52,995,396, up 105.1 pct. Still outstanding: USD849.7M of convertible notes struck at USD12.23, USD18.35 and USD20.14 plus a Renesas warrant at USD23.95 - all below Friday's USD25.76. Convert them and 56,700,673 shares arrive: 109,696,069 in total, up 107.0 pct again. - Fresh-start accounting took USD3,006.6M off property and equipment in one entry on 29 September 2025 - 79.6 pct of a USD3.78B carrying value. Quarterly depreciation halved from USD60.4M to USD31.7M, and gross margin got WORSE anyway. The filed fair value of the debt is USD3,465.8M against USD1,782.0M of principal - 194.5 pct of par, and 2.54x the USD1.37B equity. A year earlier the same stack was marked at 39.7 pct. The senior coupon stepped up to 15.875 pct cash on 23 June 2026. What to watch: The Q4 FY2026 8-K accepted 16:40:15 ET on 19 August 2026 and its Exhibit 99.1, read against the Form 10-K for the year ended 28 June 2026 - which was itself only accepted at 16:11:16 ET the FOLLOWING evening, eleven minutes after the reaction session closed. So the market priced the press release alone. Non-GAAP loss per share of USD2.26 came in 19 cents SMALLER than a USD2.45 bar and revenue of USD149.6M landed within 0.3 pct of estimate. The stock fell 9.42 pct anyway. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 21 · 13 min
WMT Stock Q2 FY2027: Walmart Earnings - Guidance Raised, Stock Down 9%
Walmart (WMT) Q2 FY2027 — Walmart reported fiscal Q2 2027 on an 8-K accepted 06:59:01 ET on Thursday August 20 (EDGAR filing-index page) - a BEFORE-THE-OPEN print, so Thursday Aug 20 is the reaction session and Friday Aug 21 has also settled. Shares closed USD103.84 against USD114.30, DOWN 9.15 pct, the 4th worst of 4,999 close-to-close sessions since October 2006, on 83,633,145 shares, 3.89x the 20-session median. Three quarters of the fall was the overnight gap: it OPENED at USD106.38, down 6.93 pct, before a share traded. Friday closed USD103.70, down 0.13 pct. No bounce. Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) is the largest retailer on earth: roughly 280 million customers a week across more than 10,900 stores in 19 countries, about 2.1 million associates, and USD713 billion of fiscal 2026 revenue. It reports under US GAAP in US dollars on a fiscal year ending 31 January, so the quarter ended 31 July 2026 is the SECOND quarter of fiscal 2027. Its three segments are Walmart U.S., Walmart International and Sam's Club U.S. John Furner is President and CEO; John David Rainey is chief financial officer. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE DE-RATING WAS RIGHT, AND IT IS NEARLY FINISHED) — base-case value ~$99.99 vs ~$103.7 today. KEY METRICS: - Q2 FY2027 total revenue USD187.937B, up 5.9 pct and 5.1 pct in constant currency, clearing a USD186.641B estimate. Net sales USD186.100B; membership and other income USD1.837B, up 11.2 pct. Operating income USD9.383B against USD7.286B, up 28.8 pct reported and 17.4 pct adjusted cc. Gross profit rate up 96 bps to 25.41 pct. Adjusted EPS USD0.81 against USD0.68 and a USD0.742 bar, a 9.2 pct beat - while GAAP EPS FELL 9.1 pct to USD0.80. - Guidance RAISED: FY27 adjusted EPS USD2.80-2.87 from USD2.75-2.85, net sales cc up 4.0-5.0 pct from 3.5-4.5 pct, adjusted operating income cc up 7.0-8.5 pct. But Q3 is set at USD0.62-0.64 against a USD0.67 vendor consensus row, 6.0 pct below it. Capital spending guidance went from about 3.5 pct of net sales to about 4.0 pct, roughly USD3.7B more. Walmart U.S. comparable sales grew 2.6 pct against 4.6 pct a year ago. - The de-rating in one line: the guidance midpoint rose 1.25 pct, from USD2.800 to USD2.835, while the multiple fell 10.27 pct, from 40.82x to 36.63x - and those two terms multiply to the exact minus 9.15 pct that printed. Walmart closed fiscal 2022, 2023 and 2024 at 21.8x, 22.9x and 24.9x adjusted earnings, then 39.1x and 45.1x. Six-month capex up 24.3 pct; six-month free cash flow down 20.4 pct to USD5.529B. What to watch: The Q2 FY2027 8-K accepted 06:59:01 ET on 20 August 2026 and its Exhibit 99.1, read against the Form 10-K for the year ended 31 January 2026. Adjusted EPS of USD0.81 cleared a USD0.742 bar and revenue of USD187.937B cleared USD186.641B - and the company RAISED full-year adjusted EPS guidance to USD2.80-2.87 from USD2.75-2.85. The shares fell 9.15 pct anyway. Nine sell-side firms then cut their targets by an average of 9.65 pct, and not one cut a rating. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 20 · 14 min
KEYS Stock Q3 FY2026: Keysight Earnings - Orders +56%, The Book Leads
Keysight Technologies (KEYS) Q3 FY2026 — Keysight furnished fiscal Q3 2026 results on an 8-K accepted 16:09:53 ET on Tuesday August 18 (EDGAR filing-index page) - an AFTER-THE-CLOSE print, so Wednesday Aug 19 is the reaction session and the last settled one. Shares closed USD319.45 against USD341.00, DOWN 6.32 pct, the 22nd worst of 2,964 sessions since November 2014, on 3,875,294 shares, 3.78x the 20-session median. But the SESSION BEFORE, which ended nine minutes before the filing, was itself DOWN 5.58 pct and ranks 23rd - roughly 48 pct of the two-day 11.55 pct fall pre-dates the filing. Keysight Technologies (NYSE: KEYS) sells design, emulation and test solutions to engineers building communications, semiconductor, automotive, aerospace and AI infrastructure products. Spun out of Agilent in November 2014, it reports under US GAAP in US dollars on a fiscal year ending 31 October, serves about 40,000 end customers a year and employed roughly 16,500 people at 30 April 2026. Satish Dhanasekaran is chief executive. Its revenue is a LEADING indicator: engineers buy validation gear during design, years before the equipment it validates ships. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - A LEADING INDICATOR RUNNING HOT, AND FAIRLY PAID FOR IT) — base-case value ~$306.67 vs ~$319.45 today. KEY METRICS: - Q3 FY2026 revenue USD1.846B, up 36.5 pct on USD1.352B and beating a USD1.746B estimate by 5.7 pct; orders USD2.091B, up 56.0 pct, above two billion for a second straight quarter. GAAP diluted EPS USD2.30; non-GAAP diluted EPS USD3.07 against USD1.72 and a USD2.48 bar, a 23.8 pct beat. Segment operating margin 33.2 pct against 25.0 pct, above the company's own 31-32 pct long-term range. Free cash flow USD403M. - The lead: book-to-bill 1.13x against 0.99x a year ago, and 1.12x across nine months, leaving USD624M of orders booked and not yet shipped on top of a USD2.697B backlog. Core orders grew 52 pct against 56 pct reported, so acquisitions and currency are worth 4 points. The first 6G standard is targeted for March 2029. The 10-K expects most backlog to convert within six months, so visibility is about two quarters. - The counterweight: 83.2 pct of April-quarter revenue was recognised at a point in time against 80.9 pct a year earlier; software and services fell to about 33 pct of revenue from 40 pct and recurring revenue is 24 pct; deferred revenue rose 8.3 pct while nine-month revenue rose 30.5 pct; contracted revenue beyond twelve months is USD660M. Revenue FELL 8.9 pct in fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025 finished below fiscal 2023. What to watch: The Q3 FY2026 8-K accepted 16:09:53 ET on 18 August 2026 and its Exhibit 99.1, read against the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 April 2026 and the Form 10-K for the year ended 31 October 2025. Orders of USD2,091M exceeded revenue of USD1,846M - a 1.13x book-to-bill against 0.99x a year earlier - while that 10-K expects most backlog to become revenue within SIX months. Spirent closed 15 October 2025, so it is in this quarter and not in the comparison. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
August 20 · 14 min
FN Stock Q4 FY2026: Fabrinet Earnings - Record Year, It Keeps 12 Cents
Fabrinet (FN) Q4 FY2026 — Fabrinet furnished its Q4 and full-year FY2026 results on an 8-K accepted 16:22:03 ET on Monday August 17 (EDGAR filing-index page), with the call at 5:00pm ET - an AFTER-THE-CLOSE print, so Tuesday Aug 18 is the reaction session and it is fully settled. The shares closed USD482.59 against Monday's USD598.58, DOWN 19.38 pct close to close - the 2nd worst of 2,671 sessions since 2016, behind only minus 21.87 pct in January 2025 - on 3,159,345 shares, 4.27x the 20-session median and the 9th heaviest ever. But the stock had run UP 13.82 pct in the four sessions into the print, so net from Aug 11 to Aug 19 it is down 13.56 pct. Fabrinet (NYSE: FN) provides advanced optical packaging and precision optical, electro-mechanical and electronic manufacturing services to OEMs. It is a Cayman Islands company operating principally from Thailand, reports under US GAAP in US dollars, and employed 21,521 people at 26 June 2026 - 21,020 of them in manufacturing operations and 21,221 in the Asia-Pacific region. Its customers own the product designs and consign their own production tooling to Fabrinet's floor, and firm purchase orders do not typically extend beyond 13 weeks. Seamus Grady has been chief executive since 2017. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A SUPERBLY RUN ASSEMBLER ON A TWELVE-CENT MARGIN, AT THE RICHEST MULTIPLE IN ITS GROUP) — base-case value ~$385.62 vs ~$454.55 today. KEY METRICS: - Q4 FY2026 revenue USD1,315.8M, up 44.6 pct on USD909.7M, above the guided range; GAAP net income USD139.3M and GAAP diluted EPS USD3.83; non-GAAP net income USD149.1M and non-GAAP diluted EPS USD4.10 against USD2.65, beating a USD3.81 consensus by 7.6 pct on revenue that beat by 3.1 pct. Full year revenue USD4,641.1M, up 35.7 pct; GAAP EPS USD13.05; non-GAAP EPS USD14.09. - The margin that does not move: gross profit USD556.5M on a 12.0 pct gross margin, against 12.1 pct last year and 12.4 pct the year before - across which revenue grew 61.0 pct. Cost of revenue is 88.0 pct of sales. Non-GAAP operating margin improved to 10.8 pct from 10.5 pct purely on overhead, with SG&A held to USD93.5M, 2.0 pct of sales against 2.6 pct. - Cash and structure: free cash flow USD4.2M against USD207.3M last year, so 0.9 pct of USD473.0M of net income reached cash; operating cash flow fell 21.8 pct to USD256.7M while capital spending more than doubled to USD252.5M. Inventory rose 75.8 pct to USD1,021.2M and receivables 34.1 pct to USD1,017.9M. Purchase obligations to third parties total USD3.15 billion, 5.66x a year of gross profit. What to watch: The Q4/FY2026 8-K accepted 16:22:03 ET on 17 August 2026 and its Exhibit 99.1, read against the Form 10-K accepted 07:12:07 ET the next morning. Item 1 of that 10-K names the four customers above 10 pct of revenue - Cisco 19.9 pct, NVIDIA 16.3 pct, Nokia 10.7 pct and Amazon 10.5 pct - against two the prior year, and shows NVIDIA falling from 35.1 pct two years ago. The same 8-K discloses a THB 2.50 billion term loan, about USD75.0M, drawn the day of the print. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Showing 101–120 of 162 episodes