Rational Dissent

Bianco Research

Bianco Research L.L.C. has been a source of objective research and unique insights into financial markets for over 20 years. We combine cutting-edge analytics and a highly visual approach to provide clear, concise conclusions in a data driven market.

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10 episodes
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Avg 31 min
English

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S1 · E9
Friday · 33 min
Episode 009. Did the Fed Get it Right?
Kevin Warsh delivered the first hike in a few years as persistent inflation bites, was it the right move? Chapters 00:00 – Introduction & FOMC Rate Hike Overview 02:38 – Rising Bond Yields & Financial Conditions 08:02 – Structural Inflation & the Post-Pandemic Economy 24:10 – The 12–0 Vote & Threats to Fed Independence 29:10 – Eliminating Forward Guidance & Outro Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/ Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=SPOT091826
S1 · E8
September 11 · 35 min
Episode 008. One Commodity Cycle or Many?
Commodities as an asset class are rarely homogenous. Today, prices are moving together, which either reflects a structural relationship or a set of unrelated drivers arriving at once. Rate Cut Cycle Returns Table: https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/09/rate_cut_cycle_returns.png Chapters 00:00 - Introduction & The Commodity Rally 02:25 - How Commodity Total Return is Calculated 06:02 - The Structural Case for "Easy Money" 13:03 - Supply Disruption Drivers in Energy Markets 16:46 - The "Sovereignty Premium" & Central Bank Gold Buying 23:28 - Debating the Multi-Factor Reality Behind Commodities 31:46 - Closing Question: How Should the Fed Respond to Structural Commodity Shocks? Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/ Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT091126
S1 · E7
September 4 · 32 min
Episode 007. Are Yields Good Enough To Compete?
A yield is only as good as what you compare it to, right now, rates aren't promising enough for investors to want in. Chapters 00:00 - Introduction 01:46 - Determining the "Right" Level for Interest Rates 05:46 - Price-Sensitive vs. Price-Insensitive Treasury Buyers 12:00 - Comparing Treasuries to Alternatives 16:43 - Term Premium and the Market's Demand for Higher Yields 20:57 - The 4-5-6 Rule and Unrealistic Investor Expectations 24:28 - Will Foreign Central Banks and Price-Insensitive Buyers Return? 28:25 - Lightning Round: Will Bonds Win, or Will Everything Else Lose 32:24 - Outro and Conclusion
S1 · E6
August 28 · 32 min
Episode 006. Can the Treasury Bully the Bond Market?
In a regime where financial conditions never tightened and liquidity never left, the Treasury could open its wallet the same week the Fed decides whether to hike. Is it a fool’s errand? Chapters 00:00 - Introduction and Topic Overview 02:23 - Defining Financial Conditions vs. Liquidity 05:54 - Liquidity and the Fed's Balance Sheet 08:26 - The Role of the Treasury General Account (TGA) 12:48 - Market Liquidity and Inflation Fears 21:51 - Term Premium and Market Risk 24:41 - The "Liz Truss Moment" and Bond Vigilantes 32:26 - Outro Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/ Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=SPOT082826
S1 · E5
August 21 · 31 min
Episode 005. Is Bessent Helping?
The Treasury secretary is hoping to lower yields by increasing buybacks but the effectiveness of such tools has diminished in a high inflation era. Chapters 00:00 - Teaser & Introduction 01:09 - The Treasury's Rough Week 03:13 - Opening the Toolbox: Fed vs. Treasury 08:00 - The TBAC and the Optimal Issuance Mix 11:39 - The Core Issue: Unchecked Inflation 20:43 - Washington's Reluctance to Fix the Deficit 29:12 - Closing Question: Warsh vs. Bessent Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/ Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=SPOT082126
S1 · E4
August 14 · 38 min
Episode 004. The State of the Labor Market
Shifting dynamics in the U.S. Labor Market have everyone from the Fed to recent graduates playing on their heels. Chapters 00:00 - Introduction & Labor Market Equilibrium 03:30 - Demographics, Immigration, and Breakeven Rates 13:00 - Data Quality & Measuring Labor Market Speed Limits 17:55 - Youth Unemployment, Demographics, and Degree Selection 28:37 - AI's Real Impact on White-Collar Jobs & Education 33:34 - How the Definition of Work is Evolving Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/ Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT081426
S1 · E3
August 7 · 39 min
Episode 003. Valuations in An Earnings Explosion
Is the juice worth the squeeze? Earnings keep rising, valuations are questionable, and investors are uncertain. What should you make of earnings these days? Chapters 00:00 - Hot Open & Intro 00:51 - Why Earnings Confuse 03:54 - The Anthropic Effect 07:10 - Include Other Income 09:36 - OpenAI Next Wave 12:32 - Valuations vs Earnings 18:05 - Data Sources Diverge 22:42 - Quant Models in Trouble 26:05 - Vendor Financing History 29:15 - CapEx & Bubble Risks 37:10 - Lightning Round Fed or Earnings 38:53 - Wrap Up & Subscribe Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/ Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT080726
S1 · E2
July 31 · 34 min
Episode 002. This Is Not Your Father's Fed
Two meetings have passed under Warsh and the pattern emerging is more reserved communication, some family infighting, and an uncertain market. Chapters 00:00 - The Fed Put & Market Expectation 00:51 - Introduction & "Rational Dissent" Overview 01:22 - FOMC Meeting Recap & Warsh's Agenda 02:30 - Removing Forward Guidance: History & Impact 06:18 - The Risks and Moral Hazard of Forward Guidance 11:15 - Warsh's Vision: Independent Markets Check the Fed 13:36 - The Unintended Consequences of the Fed Put 15:38 - The "Good Family Fight": Dissents & Board Dynamics 18:18 - Historical Perspective on Fed Dissents (Volcker to Present) 25:34 - Reaction Function vs. Forward Guidance 30:30 - Lightning Round: Biggest Risks of Warsh’s Approach 33:41 - Closing Remarks & Wrap-Up Charts Used: https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/WarshNewsHeader.png https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/10YrCuts.png https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/30yryield.png Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/ Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT073126
S1 · E1
July 24 · 33 min
Episode 001. Why Do Investors Expect So Much?
Investors have become accustomed to stocks returning double digits year after year. Is that the new normal? What should investors expect? Chapters 00:00 - Introduction to Rational Dissent 00:32 - Welcome & Market Returns Overview 02:22 - CapEx vs. Cash Flow: The 3-in-1 Tech Supercycle 06:43 - S&P Concentration: A Two-Asset Class Market 09:16 - Valuation Breakdown: The Shiller CAPE Ratio 11:38 - Explaining the 4-5-6 Market Model 17:51 - Retail Sentiment, Bubble Behavior & Software Spending 26:09 - TIPS & Long-Term Real Return Opportunities 28:13 - Lightning Round: AI's Long-Run Sector Comparable 32:42 - Closing Remarks Charts Used: https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/AIvsNonAICorrelation072426.png https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/CAPERatiovsReturns072426.png https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/456Markets072426.png Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/ Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT072426
July 24 · 31 sec
Rational Dissent Introduction
Hello everyone welcome to the Rational Dissent Podcast where we discuss everything from markets and the economy to the Fed and AI, and we stress test conventional wisdom and consensus views.

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