Skip to content
Artwork for Rational Dissent
Rational Dissent · July 31 · 34 min

Episode 002. This Is Not Your Father's Fed

Two meetings have passed under Warsh and the pattern emerging is more reserved communication, some family infighting, and an uncertain market. Chapters 00:00 – The Fed Put & Market Expectation 00:51 – Introduction & "Rational Dissent" Overview 01:22 – FOMC Meeting Recap & Warsh's Agenda 02:30 – Removing Forward Guidance: History & Impact 06:18 – The Risks and Moral Hazard of Forward Guidance 11:15 – Warsh's Vision: Independent Markets Check the Fed 13:36 – The Unintended Consequences of the Fed Put 15:38 – The "Good Family Fight": Dissents & Board Dynamics 18:18 – Historical Perspective on Fed Dissents (Volcker to Present) 25:34 – Reaction Function vs. Forward Guidance 30:30 – Lightning Round: Biggest Risks of Warsh’s Approach 33:41 – Closing Remarks & Wrap-Up Charts Used: https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/WarshNewsHeader.png https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/10YrCuts.png https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/30yryield.png Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/ Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT073126

0:00-34:09

transcript

No transcript — this publisher did not publish one.

show notes

Two meetings have passed under Warsh and the pattern emerging is more reserved communication, some family infighting, and an uncertain market.


Chapters

00:00 – The Fed Put & Market Expectation

00:51 – Introduction & "Rational Dissent" Overview

01:22 – FOMC Meeting Recap & Warsh's Agenda

02:30 – Removing Forward Guidance: History & Impact

06:18 – The Risks and Moral Hazard of Forward Guidance

11:15 – Warsh's Vision: Independent Markets Check the Fed

13:36 – The Unintended Consequences of the Fed Put

15:38 – The "Good Family Fight": Dissents & Board Dynamics

18:18 – Historical Perspective on Fed Dissents (Volcker to Present)

25:34 – Reaction Function vs. Forward Guidance

30:30 – Lightning Round: Biggest Risks of Warsh’s Approach

33:41 – Closing Remarks & Wrap-Up


Charts Used:

https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/WarshNewsHeader.png
https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/10YrCuts.png
https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/30yryield.png


Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/

Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT073126