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Artwork for Rational Dissent
Rational Dissent · September 11 · 35 min

Episode 008. One Commodity Cycle or Many?

Commodities as an asset class are rarely homogenous. Today, prices are moving together, which either reflects a structural relationship or a set of unrelated drivers arriving at once. Rate Cut Cycle Returns Table: https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/09/rate_cut_cycle_returns.png Chapters 00:00 - Introduction & The Commodity Rally 02:25 - How Commodity Total Return is Calculated 06:02 - The Structural Case for "Easy Money" 13:03 - Supply Disruption Drivers in Energy Markets 16:46 - The "Sovereignty Premium" & Central Bank Gold Buying 23:28 - Debating the Multi-Factor Reality Behind Commodities 31:46 - Closing Question: How Should the Fed Respond to Structural Commodity Shocks? Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/ Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT091126

0:00-35:58
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Commodities as an asset class are rarely homogenous. Today, prices are moving together, which either reflects a structural relationship or a set of unrelated drivers arriving at once.


Rate Cut Cycle Returns Table: https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/09/rate_cut_cycle_returns.png


Chapters

00:00 - Introduction & The Commodity Rally

02:25 - How Commodity Total Return is Calculated

06:02 - The Structural Case for "Easy Money"

13:03 - Supply Disruption Drivers in Energy Markets

16:46 - The "Sovereignty Premium" & Central Bank Gold Buying

23:28 - Debating the Multi-Factor Reality Behind Commodities

31:46 - Closing Question: How Should the Fed Respond to Structural Commodity Shocks?

Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/

Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT091126

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