Hold Your Fire!

International Crisis Group

Join Crisis Group's Executive Vice President Richard Atwood as he dives deep into the conflicts that rage around the globe with Crisis Group analysts and special guests. These experts bring a unique, on-the-ground perspective to understanding both why those conflicts persist — and what could bring them to an end.

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234 episodes
Updated July 6

Episodes234

Newest first

Dec 3, 2020 · 49 min
Regime Change Re-examined
In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood take on the U.S. “forever wars” with Phil Gordon, a former adviser to President Barack Obama and author of the acclaimed book Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East (St. Martin's Press, October 2020). Rob also addresses one of the most pressing foreign policy decisions the incoming Biden administration will face: should the U.S. simply go back to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal or should it aim for a more ambitious agreement with Tehran? Background reading: Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East, Philip H. Gordon. St. Martin's Press. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Nov 26, 2020 · 41 min
Afghanistan's Peace Process
In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood unpack the state of talks among the U.S., and Afghan governments and the Taliban about a peace deal, along with Crisis Group’s Asia Program Director Laurel Miller, who served as acting U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. They also address the expulsion of Crisis Group Senior Analyst Will Davison from Ethiopia and reflect on how the organization does its work in wartime. Background readings by Crisis Group: Afghanistan's Peace Process Will Be Long, Incremental, and in Need of a Mediator Ethiopia Expels Crisis Group Senior Analyst Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Nov 19, 2020 · 42 min
Ethnicity and Conflict in Myanmar
In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood talk about the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh with Crisis Group Europe Program Director Olya Oliker. Then they speak with Crisis Group expert Richard Horsey about Myanmar’s identity crisis as it emerges from the second democratic elections in its history. Background readings by Crisis Group: Another Landslide Victory for Aung San Suu Kyi’s Party in Myanmar – But at What Cost? - November 2020 Q&A Identity Crisis: Ethnicity and Conflict in Myanmar - August 2020 report Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Nov 13, 2020 · 45 min
“First, Do No Harm”: A New U.S. Foreign Policy under Biden?
In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Brittany Brown compare their own experience with presidential transitions to the Trump administration’s refusal thus far to pave the way for Joe Biden’s arrival at the White House. They then explore what a Biden foreign policy could look like with Matt Duss, foreign policy adviser for Senator Bernie Sanders, evoking the motto: “First, do no harm”. Background readings by Crisis Group: Staving off Violence around Somalia’s Elections - 2020 Briefing Ethiopia: Not too Late to Stop Tigray Conflict from Unravelling Country - 2020 Op-Ed Algérie: un air de déjà vu? - 2020 Q&A Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Nov 5, 2020 · 40 min
Protests against Police Brutality Shake Nigeria
In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood try to make sense of a very convoluted electoral map, with no clear winner, the day after the U.S. election. They then turn to the protests against police brutality that have shaken Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, with Crisis Group Senior Adviser Nnamdi Obasi and Africa Program Director Comfort Ero. Lastly, they offer an update on the sadly predictable military escalation in Ethiopia. Background readings by Crisis Group: Nigeria’s #EndSARS Protest: De-escalate Tensions, Start Deep Police Reform The Islamic State Franchises in Africa: Lessons from Lake Chad Facing the Challenge of the Islamic State in West Africa Province Violence in Nigeria’s North West: Rolling Back the Mayhem Video: The Fate of Women Who Lived With Boko Haram Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Oct 29, 2020 · 39 min
Can the U.S. Avoid an Election Crisis?
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Steve Pomper talk about a bizarre Oval Office meeting that enraged Ethiopia and a must-watch documentary about social media. Then they take a deep dive into the risks of election-related violence in the United States with Carnegie Senior Fellow Rachel Kleinfeld. She unpacks the combination of risks that place the 2020 presidential contest in a category apart from any other in memory. Background readings by Crisis Group: The U.S. Presidential Election: Managing the Risks of Violence Too Much to Lose: Steering the U.S. Away from Election-Related Violence Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Oct 22, 2020 · 38 min
What Makes Peace? Colombia’s Ex-President Santos Says It’s Harder than War
This week on Hold Your Fire!, former Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos takes Rob and Naz behind the scenes of the negotiations with the FARC guerrillas that achieved a peace deal and won him the Nobel Peace Prize. Santos, also a Crisis Group Trustee, explains that making peace was much harder than leading the war effort. Beth Dickinson, Crisis Group’s analyst for Colombia, joins the conversation to give an update on how the peace agreement is working out. Background reading by Crisis Group: Leaders under Fire: Defending Colombia’s Front Line of Peace - 2020 report mentioned by Rob in the interview The Missing Peace: Colombia’s New Government and Last Guerrillas - 2018 report Colombia’s Armed Groups Battle for the Spoils of Peace - 2017 report Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Oct 15, 2020 · 40 min
Turkey Flexes Its Foreign Policy Muscles
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob and Naz talk with Nigar Göksel, Crisis Group’s Turkey director, about how Turkey is flexing its muscles in its near abroad — Syria, Iraq, the eastern Mediterranean, and now Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as farther afield in Libya. Then they get an update on the Azerbaijani side of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh from Zaur Shiriyev, Crisis Group’s analyst in Baku. Background readings by Crisis Group: Crisis Group Statement (October 14): Reducing the Human Cost of the New Nagorno-Karabakh War Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Oct 8, 2020 · 34 min
What’s Behind the Fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob and Naz question the efficacy of international sanctions, as the European Union wields this overused tool against Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko. They are then joined by Olesya Vartanyan, Crisis Group’s senior South Caucasus analyst, for a very personal conversation about the toll the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh has taken on her friends on both sides as well as an analysis of the role played by Turkey, Russia, and other external actors in the conflict. Background reading by Crisis Group on the war in Nagorno-Karabakh: De-escalating the New Nagorno-Karabakh War - statement on the most recent escalation Digging out of Deadlock in Nagorno-Karabakh - 2019 report mentioned by Olesya in the interview Nagorno-Karabakh’s Gathering War Clouds - 2017 report mentioned by Olesya in the interview The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: A Visual Explainer Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Oct 1, 2020 · 34 min
President Trump’s Off-the-Rails Foreign Policy
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob reminisces about his recent trip to Azerbaijan, where he saw warning signs of a “frozen conflict” ready to thaw. Naz explains why the U.S. might regret trying to designate the Huthis as a terrorist organization if it cares about helping Yemen make peace. They are joined by Aaron Miller, a veteran U.S. diplomat and Carnegie senior fellow, who examines the successes and shortcomings of President Trump’s unconventional diplomacy, and explains how the phrase “nobody ever washes a rental car” applies to conflict prevention. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sep 24, 2020 · 38 min
Libya's Proxy War
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob pays a very personal homage to U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and confides about what keeps him up at night. Naz explains the convoluted legal argument laid out by the U.S. to try and justify its snapback of UN sanctions against Iran. They then turn to the complexity of the war in Libya, torn between foreign proxies and militias, with Crisis Group Senior Analyst Claudia Gazzini. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sep 17, 2020 · 34 min
Ethiopia's Political Crisis
Naz and Rob reflect on U.S. support for the Yemen war and the conspicuous absence of the Palestinian issue from the normalisation agreement among Israel, the UAE and Bahrain. Crisis Group's senior analyst for Ethiopia, Will Davison, then joins them to discuss the enormous challenges facing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed amid rising ethnic tensions in Africa's second-most populous country. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sep 10, 2020 · 35 min
Afghan Peace Talks: Dealing with the Taliban
Naz and Rob discuss French President Emmanuel Macron's dive into the murky waters of Lebanese politics and the Trump administration's stunning decision to impose sanctions on the staff of the International Criminal Court. They also speak with Andrew Watkins, Crisis Group's senior analyst for Afghanistan, about what to expect from the country's pending peace talks. Do the Taliban have the upper hand? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sep 3, 2020 · 34 min
Israel, the UAE, and Normalisation
In this first episode of Hold Your Fire, Naz and Rob talk about the role foreign policy played, or didn’t, at the Democratic and Republican National Conventions, and explain why the U.S. attempt to snap back UN sanctions on Iran met with an international, collective shrug. They welcome Crisis Group’s former Arab-Israeli project director, Nathan Thrall, to discuss the Israel-UAE agreement, what it means for Palestinians, and whether he believes there can be a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.