Hold Your Fire!

International Crisis Group

Join Crisis Group's Executive Vice President Richard Atwood as he dives deep into the conflicts that rage around the globe with Crisis Group analysts and special guests. These experts bring a unique, on-the-ground perspective to understanding both why those conflicts persist — and what could bring them to an end.

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234 episodes
Updated July 6

Episodes234

Newest first

Apr 29, 2021 · 35 min
What Déby’s Death Means for Chad and the Region
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group’s Project Director for Central Africa Richard Moncrieff and Crisis Group’s Libya expert Claudia Gazzini about what the death of Chadian President Idriss Déby means for the country and for the Sahel region and the connection between Chadian rebel groups and Libya. They unpack possible scenarios now that Déby’s son, Mahamat Déby, has assumed power and formed a transitional military council, provoking popular protests in response. They look at what drove the Front for Change and Concord’s (FACT) recent rebel incursion from Libya into Chad that led to Déby’s death. They also discuss Chad’s military engagement against jihadist groups in the Lake Chad basin and the Sahel, and what the future might hold for those operations. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Chad page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Apr 22, 2021 · 39 min
Rising Russia-Ukraine Tensions and the West
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group’s program director for Europe and Central Asia, Olga Oliker, about rising tensions between Russia, on one hand, and Ukraine and Western capitals on the other, over Moscow’s recent military build-up at the Ukrainian border. They talk about the motives behind Russia’s deployments, how they are being perceived in Kyiv, the situation in separatist-held parts of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region and why the peace process has stalled. Olga describes the broader standoff between Russia and the West, of which disagreements over Ukraine are an important – but far from the only – factor. They also look at how U.S. and European leaders should respond and what might help reverse the dangerous escalation in Donbas, with a view to returning to the 2020 ceasefire agreement and peace talks. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ukraine page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Apr 15, 2021 · 40 min
Is The Gulf Dispute Actually Over?
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group’s Senior Adviser for the Middle East and North Africa, Dina Esfandiary, about what drove Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, among other Gulf states, to cut diplomatic ties with Qatar in 2017, why the Gulf Arab countries announced an end to the crisis in January 2021 and whether the rift is truly over. They reflect on what this means for the foreign policies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and how their leaders see their priorities and challenges in the region. They also discuss what the spat has meant for crises across the region where the GCC countries are involved. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Apr 8, 2021 · 40 min
How Afghanistan Views the U.S. Troop Drawdown
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Afghanistan, Andrew Watkins, about the fast-approaching 1 May deadline for U.S. troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, the stalled peace process and ongoing violence across the country. In February 2020, the U.S. struck a deal with Taliban leaders. It entailed the U.S. pledging to withdraw its forces and the Taliban agreeing not to allow Afghanistan to be used for international terrorism and to enter talks with the Afghan government. Those Afghan peace talks have made little progress, even as the deadline for the U.S. drawdown looms. Andrew talks about how Afghan factions view the U.S. withdrawal, what neighbours and other regional powers think and dangers for the country in the months ahead. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on Afghanistan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Apr 1, 2021 · 35 min
Tshisekedi Consolidates Power in DR Congo
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz Modirzadeh and guest co-host Comfort Ero, our Interim Vice President and Africa Program Director, talk to Nelleke van de Walle, Crisis Group’s Central Africa Deputy Project Director, about the challenges preventing the Democratic Republic of Congo from moving forward. They discuss President Tshisekedi’s consolidation of power and the still strong influence of former President Joseph Kabila. Nelleke says that President Tshisekedi needs to step up and make sure he doesn’t become what he replaced. She also warns about the fraught security landscape in eastern DR Congo, where the recent U.S. designation of the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) as a foreign terrorist organisation could have unintended consequences for peacemaking and humanitarian efforts. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our DR Congo page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mar 25, 2021 · 37 min
Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis and Horn of Africa Politics
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood, Crisis Group’s interim president, and guest host Comfort Ero, our interim vice president and Africa Program director, talk to Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, about the fighting in Tigray and its implications for regional politics. Murithi sheds light on the calculations of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, rebel Tigray leaders and Eritrea, which has also sent forces into Tigray. He talks through the Horn of Africa’s evolving geopolitics, growing friction between Ethiopia and its neighbours, and the state of play of both Ethiopia’s and Sudan’s transitions. He looks at what continental and world leaders need to do to end the Tigray crisis and calm escalating regional tensions. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mar 18, 2021 · 35 min
Good News in Libya?
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group’s Libya expert, Claudia Gazzini, about the historic turn of events resulting in a new unity government in Libya. After years of chaos, division and war, often fuelled by foreign powers, the past six months saw Libyan leaders engage in UN-led peace talks and agree to an interim cabinet headed by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh. Claudia talks through events that led the warring parties and their external backers to agree to the unity government, the benefits of the UN’s inclusive, multitrack process, the significance of a peaceful handover of power and the challenges that lie ahead for Dbeibeh’s government. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mar 11, 2021 · 42 min
The War on Drugs in Colombia’s Countryside
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh speak with Beth Dickinson, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Colombia, about the Colombian government’s new war on drugs and the escalation of violence in rural areas. Beth unpacks the complex dynamics between vulnerable farming communities, criminal groups vying for control over illicit markets, and security forces failing to contain the bloodshed. She explains how the downward spiral undermines the 2016 peace process. They discuss Crisis Group’s recent reports on the subject, including how women’s involvement in coca cultivation means they are at particular risk of violence, why armed groups have emerged as winners of the post-FARC peace deal, and the social activists and leaders caught in the crossfire. They also look at what an alternative to Bogota’s current heavy-handed approach would look like. For more information, read Crisis Group’s reports: Deeply Rooted: Coca Eradication and Violence in Colombia and Leaders under Fire: Defending Colombia’s Front Line of Peace. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mar 8, 2021 · 31 min
Special Episode: Gender and Conflict
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz Modirzadeh and Richard Atwood talk to Azadeh Moaveni, Crisis Group’s Gender Project Director, in honor of International Women’s Day. They look at the challenges in implementing the goals of UN Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace, and Security twenty years after its adoption. Azadeh also talks about Crisis Group’s work on gender and conflict. She details recent research on the dangers for local women’s groups of getting involved in counter-terrorism. She also talks about her well-reviewed book on young women joining ISIS, Guest House for Young Widows, about women’s involvement with other militant groups, including Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram, and about the controversy over repatriating ISIS-affiliated women and children from Syria and Iraq. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Gender & Conflict page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mar 4, 2021 · 44 min
A Dangerous New Turn in Yemen’s War
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz Modirzadeh and Richard Atwood speak with Peter Salisbury, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Yemen, about Yemen’s multilayered conflict, now in its seventh year. They look at the state of play in Marib, where an offensive by Huthi forces could worsen what the UN already calls the world’s worst humanitarian disaster. Peter unpacks the complex alliances and rivalries among the conflict parties. They also discuss how Yemen fits into U.S. President Joe Biden’s still evolving Gulf policy, including U.S. relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia. For more information, see: Crisis in Marib: Averting a Chain Reaction in Yemen Rethinking Peace in Yemen Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Feb 25, 2021 · 37 min
The War in the Sahel
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz Modirzadeh and Richard Atwood are joined by Jean-Hervé Jezequel, Crisis Group’s Sahel Project Director, for a frank look at why French-led efforts to weaken the jihadist grip on the Sahel and restore regional stability have foundered. He describes the lay of the land today, how jihadist groups have exploited the void left by states, and why emphasis should be shifted to local-level dialogue and governance to effectively reverse the spiral of violence. For more information, see our latest report: A Course Correction for the Sahel Stabilisation Strategy Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Feb 18, 2021 · 35 min
The Coup in Myanmar
Why did the generals seize power on 1 February in Myanmar? With protests gathering steam, what does the future hold? How should outside actors respond? This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood, Crisis Group’s Interim President, and guest host Comfort Ero, our Interim Vice President and Africa Program Director, speak with Richard Horsey, Crisis Group’s Senior Adviser on Myanmar. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Feb 11, 2021 · 43 min
Latin America’s Tough Year Ahead
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz Modirzadeh and Richard Atwood speak with Ivan Briscoe, Crisis Group’s Program Director for Latin America and the Caribbean, and discuss the current situation in the region following a tumultuous year. Ivan examines the impact of COVID-19 in Latin America, from stifling public protests to reducing homicide rates, and whether we are likely to see these trends continue. He explains how Venezuela has affected the region as a whole and touches on solutions going forward. Due to the complex history of international intervention in Latin America, finding an answer won’t be easy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Feb 5, 2021 · 36 min
Africa in 2021
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz Modirzadeh and Richard Atwood bid farewell to Rob Malley, who has left Crisis Group to join the Biden administration, and discuss trends on the African continent in 2021 with Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director and interim Vice President Comfort Ero. Comfort points out the rising violent jihadist threat in the Sahel, the Lake Chad basin, Somalia and Mozambique, the risky political transitions and tense elections in Uganda and Ethiopia, and the role of African powers in the continent’s crises. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jan 28, 2021 · 35 min
Syria’s Frozen Conflict
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz Modirzadeh and Richard Atwood host Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Syria, Dareen Khalifa, for a wide-ranging discussion of how the war in that country, until lately one of the world’s hottest, has cooled down over the past year. Dareen unpacks the de facto division of Syria into four parts, each controlled by a different faction with different outside allies, and explains what the future likely holds for each part. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jan 21, 2021 · 37 min
U.S. Sanctions: An Overused Foreign Policy Tool?
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz Modirzadeh and Richard Atwood host Crisis Group’s Iran Project Director, Ali Vaez, and Senior Analyst for Venezuela, Phil Gunson, to assess Washington’s unilateral sanctions on Tehran and Caracas. They argue that the Trump administration’s "maximum pressure" policy had none of the intended effects on the Iranian and Venezuelan governments but had dramatic ill effects on civilians. The unintended consequences highlight the responsibility that comes with the power to impose these penalties, as does the difficulty of reversing them. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jan 14, 2021 · 42 min
Social Media and the U.S. Capitol Events
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and Naz Modirzadeh host Sheera Frenkel, New York Times cybersecurity reporter and author of An Ugly Truth: Inside Facebook's Battle for Domination, to discuss the role that social media platforms played in the mob assault on the U.S. Capitol and the response, or lack thereof, to online disinformation by Big Tech companies. They also talk to Peter Salisbury, Crisis Group’s Yemen Senior Analyst, who warns of dire consequences for Yemen if the U.S. does not quickly overturn its recent designation of the Huthis as a terrorist group. Background readings: Sheera Frenkel: An Ugly Truth: Inside Facebook's Battle for Domination Crisis Group: The U.S. Should Reverse Its Huthi Terror Designation Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jan 7, 2021 · 39 min
10 Conflicts to Watch in 2021
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and Naz Modirzadeh host Crisis Group’s Chief of Policy Richard Atwood in a special episode on Crisis Group’s flagship publication “10 Conflicts to Watch in 2021”, discussing the hot-spots we chose to feature, the opportunities for conflict resolution and the legacy of Donald Trump’s foreign’s policy, as well as debating the conventional wisdom that there is no military solution to political conflict. Background readings: 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2021. How to Hide an Empire. A History of the Greater United States by Daniel Immerwahr. The Man Who Ran Washington. The Life and Times of James A. Baker III by Peter Baker and Susan Glasser. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Dec 17, 2020 · 42 min
Trump’s Morocco-Israel Transaction
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood unpack the normalization of relations between Israel and Morocco with Century Foundation Fellow Dahlia Scheindlin and talk with Crisis Group’s North Africa Project Director Riccardo Fabiani about how U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara could affect the conflict over this territory. They also address the elections in Venezuela and what the rollout of the first COVID-19 vaccine could mean for conflict prevention as well as Richard’s 100-year-old grandmother. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Dec 10, 2020 · 33 min
Michael Kovrig: Two Years in Arbitrary Detention in China
This week marks two years of detention in China for our colleague Michael Kovrig, for no reason other than being a Canadian in the wrong place at the wrong time. Rob Malley and guest host Brittany Brown dedicate this episode of Hold Your Fire! to Michael’s case and talk with his wife Vina Nadjibulla about Michael’s resilience in prison, the conditions there, the letters they have exchanged, the geopolitical intricacies of his case and her relentless fight at the highest levels of government to get him out and safely home. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.