Hold Your Fire!

International Crisis Group

Join Crisis Group's Executive Vice President Richard Atwood as he dives deep into the conflicts that rage around the globe with Crisis Group analysts and special guests. These experts bring a unique, on-the-ground perspective to understanding both why those conflicts persist — and what could bring them to an end.

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234 episodes
Updated July 6

Episodes234

Newest first

Oct 8, 2021 · 41 min
Lebanon is Falling Apart
Lebanon is in the midst of what the World Bank describes as what could be one of the worst economic crises of the past 150 years. Over three-quarters of the population have been plunged into poverty, often struggling to obtain food, medicine and basic necessities amid rampant inflation, currency collapse and widespread shortages. State institutions, including the security forces and police, are increasingly strained. Unrest has mounted as political elites defer necessary reform. The newly appointed government has promised to break the deadlock but it is difficult to see the path out of the crisis, especially with elections only months away. In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Naz and Richard are joined by Heiko Wimmen, director of Crisis Group’s Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon Project to discuss the country’s plight. They discuss the origins of the crisis, its everyday consequences for Lebanese citizens, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the role played by competing political factions, including Hezbollah. Three decades after the end of the devastating civil war, they ask what Lebanon’s economic implosion means for relations among the country’s sects and assess risks of violence. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Lebanon page. Make sure to look out for our upcoming report on the political and social ramifications of the crisis. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Oct 1, 2021 · 51 min
Could Talking to Mali's Jihadists Bring Peace?
The war in the Sahel appears to have reached a stalemate. In Mali, fighting pits the Malian security forces, backed by regional militaries and French special forces and airpower, against an al-Qaeda-linked jihadist coalition, JNIM (the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims). Since Mali’s crisis in 2012-2013, efforts to defeat jihadist militants have only seen their influence expand. Violence has spread across the Sahel at terrible human cost. Two successive coups in Bamako, Mali’s capital, have fuelled political instability. French officials appear exasperated by the lack of progress. Yet militants themselves are also under pressure, with several leaders killed over recent years. In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim, Crisis Group’s Sahel expert, to ask whether it is time for a new approach. They take stock of the insurgency’s current state, its aims and JNIM’s relationship with al-Qaeda. They discuss the future of the French presence and the consequences of the recent coups. They also speak at length about prospects for talks between the government and JNIM leaders, what such talks might entail and the challenges such a path would pose. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Sahel and Mali regional pages as well as our work on Jihad in Modern Conflict. Be sure to keep an eye out for Ibrahim’s upcoming report. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sep 24, 2021 · 43 min
Avoiding Another Afghanistan: Could Al-Shabaab Seize Power in Somalia?
Many people in the Somali capital Mogadishu watched with apprehension as the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan. Could Somalia, struggling against its own Islamist insurgency -- Al—Shabaab -- face a similar fate? In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Somalia, to discuss the resurgence of Al—Shabaab as political instability wracks the country and the withdrawal of African Union troops potentially looms. They discuss the state of the insurgency, the capability of Somali defence forces, the troubled relationship between the central government and Somalia’s regions, and the role of East African and other foreign powers. They also talk about whether there is any hope of a political settlement with Al—Shabaab. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Somalia and Horn of Africa pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sep 16, 2021 · 1 hr 11 min
License to Kill: Lawyering in the War on Terror
Only days after the 9/11 attacks, Congress ushered in extraordinarily broad legislation that authorised President Bush to use military force in order to eliminate terrorist threats to the U.S. In this episode of Hold Your Fire! – the second in a podcast series looking at the legacy of the 9/11 attacks – Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Stephen Pomper, Crisis Group's Interim Chief of Policy, to discuss the lasting legacy of this Authorisation for the Use of Military Force (AUMF). They discuss the forthcoming Crisis Group report on the topic, “Overkill: Reforming the Legal Basis for the War on Terror”, reflecting on how the AUMF became the legal basis for increasingly wide-ranging military actions embraced by successive administrations, from Bush to Biden, as the fighting against Islamist militants expanded in scope. They also discuss the role of law and lawyers in establishing the boundaries of presidential authority and the consequences of diminished congressional oversight. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our United States page. This episode also features as part of our series The Legacy of 9/11 and the "War on Terror”. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sep 10, 2021 · 42 min
Al-Qaeda and ISIS Twenty Years after 9/11
On the eve of the twentieth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, a new episode of Hold Your Fire! looks at the shadow cast by the “global war on terror” across South Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh discuss how Islamist militants – groups like al-Qaeda and later ISIS – have fared in twenty years marked by the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, the 2011 Arab revolutions, the war in Syria and U.S. counter-terrorism operations in many other corners of the world. They talk about al-Qaeda’s recovery after losing its safe havens in Afghanistan, its vicious local branch in Iraq and its expansion through affiliates elsewhere. They also discuss how al-Qaeda’s Iraq branch exploited the Syrian war and evolved into ISIS, and the later struggle between ISIS and al-Qaeda. They take stock of where Islamist militancy stands today, with groups fighting in an increasing number of warzones across Africa and in light of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. They examine what efforts against militants look like today and some of the flaws of existing counter-terrorism policy. The episode is the first in a series on this podcast looking at the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and the impact of the “global war on terror”. For Crisis Group's other publications on this topic, see our series The Legacy of 9/11 and the "War on Terror”. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sep 3, 2021 · 47 min
Afghanistan: the Islamic State, still no Taliban government and a looming humanitarian catastrophe
After days of chaos at Kabul airport, including an attack by the Islamic State’s local chapter, the last American plane has left, ending the Americans’ twenty-year war against the Taliban. As yet, the Taliban have not announced a new government, and what its rule will look like remains unclear. Afghanistan’s neighbours, other regional powers and Western governments are still working out what engagement with the new government will entail. This week Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh welcome back Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss, who is joined by Graeme Smith, a long-time Crisis Group consultant on Afghanistan, to discuss where things stand. They talk about the Islamic State in Afghanistan, its battles with the Taliban and the Taliban’s relations with other transnational militants, including al-Qaeda. They also discuss the emerging resistance in the Panjshir valley, why the Taliban are taking time to form a government, the increasingly desperate humanitarian crisis and what the world can do to address it. They talk about how regional governments appear to be positioning themselves regarding Taliban rule, some of the dilemmas this poses for Western powers and how much the Taliban might be prepared to compromise in return for recognition, sanctions relief and aid. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Aug 19, 2021 · 34 min
Special Episode: What Will the Taliban Do Next?
The Taliban is back in power in Afghanistan. A few days ago, insurgents entered the Afghan capital Kabul, topping off a week in which they had swept through cities and towns across the country. Back from a summer hiatus for this special episode, Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss about some of the decisions the group will have to make. What will a Taliban government look like? Will the movement share power? What will its rule look like? Will it roll back some of the freedoms Afghans – women in particular – have enjoyed over the past two decades? How will it pay for the costs of running a state? What will its foreign relations look like? They unpack these key questions and what the days ahead could hold for Afghanistan. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Afghanistan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jul 30, 2021 · 37 min
Iraq: Protests, Iran’s Role and an End to U.S. Combat Operations
After a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi earlier this week, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that American forces would end their combat mission in Iraq by the end of 2021. Biden’s announcement comes after a turbulent few years for Iraq. Mass protests saw young people camp out in city and town squares across much of the country despite harsh crackdowns by security forces and Iran-backed paramilitaries. Although demonstrations forced one government to step down and have largely dissipated this year, few of the protesters’ grievances have been addressed, and it is far from clear whether elections in October this year offer a chance for political renewal. In this week’s episode, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Lahib Higel, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Iraq, to talk about Iraqi politics, Iran’s role, how much of a threat ISIS poses, and what an end to U.S. combat operations likely means for the country. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Iraq page. This is the last episode of the first season of Hold Your Fire!. Please do get in touch with any feedback for the hosts or ideas for the next season at podcasts@crisisgroup.org. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jul 22, 2021 · 44 min
The Taliban’s Advance in Afghanistan
The past few weeks have seen sweeping gains by Taliban insurgents across parts of Afghanistan as U.S. forces withdraw. This week, Richard Atwood is joined by Laurel Miller, Crisis Group’s Asia director, and Andrew Watkins, Crisis Group’s senior Afghanistan analyst, to discuss what is arguably the most dramatic shift in the Afghan war since the U.S. intervention 20 years ago ousted the then Taliban government. Andrew describes the Taliban’s steady expansion into many of Afghanistan’s districts and what it means for the government’s control in bigger cities and other provincial capitals. They discuss the Taliban’s political and military strategy as foreign forces pull out. Laurel looks at how the evolving battlefield dynamics are viewed in Washington and the broader debates around the future of U.S. policy in South Asia. They discuss what the Taliban’s advance means for peace talks between the insurgents and the Afghan government and other factions. They talk about how Afghanistan’s neighbours and other regional powers view what is happening and what their policies might entail. They also look at what foreign powers would ideally do in the months ahead and what people should watch for a sense of the conflict’s trajectory. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Afghanistan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jul 15, 2021 · 35 min
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Six months after the military seized power in Myanmar, mass strikes and a brutal crackdown by the regime continue to paralyse the country – as the economy and public services, including the health system, have collapsed and new forms of armed resistance are emerging. Joining Richard Atwood and guest co-host Comfort Ero this week to discuss what’s happening in the country is Richard Horsey, Crisis Group’s senior adviser for Myanmar. Richard describes new forms of armed resistance emerging against the regime and the military’s heavy-handed retaliation that has displaced tens of thousands of people. He explains how these locally organised civilian militias have altered what was already a complex conflict landscape. They discuss the relationship among these new militias, underground resistance cells in cities like Yangon and Mandalay, the opposition National Unity Government and the ethnic armed groups that have long operated in parts of the country. They look at whether there is any hope of the regime changing course. They also examine what options exist for outside powers to ease humanitarian suffering and try to find a way out of the crisis. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Myanmar page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jul 8, 2021 · 39 min
Ten Years of South Sudanese Statehood
This week marks the tenth anniversary of South Sudan’s independence, much-celebrated at the time but now eclipsed by the brutal civil war that followed. The conflict, which saw the army split along ethnic lines, killed an estimated 400,000 people and displaced a third of the country’s population. A 2018 peace deal signed by the war’s two main protagonists, President Salva Kiir and his former Vice President Riek Machar, ended much of the fighting. But millions still suffer from chronic hunger and unchecked militia violence. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Alan Boswell, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for South Sudan, for an in-depth look at the past decade of statehood, the problems still blighting the world’s newest country and prospects for turning the page on the brutal civil war. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our South Sudan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jul 1, 2021 · 36 min
A Dramatic Turn in Ethiopia’s Tigray War
Earlier this week, fighters loyal to the ousted leaders of Ethiopia’s Tigray region recaptured Mekelle, the regional capital, as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed withdrew federal forces and announced a unilateral ceasefire after eight months of brutal war. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to William Davison, senior analyst for Ethiopia, about this dramatic turnaround, its immediate fallout and what may come next. William explains how Tigrayan forces managed to consolidate control in rural areas, build up forces thanks in large part to popular support and launch attacks on Tigrayan cities and towns. They look at the balance of power in Tigray today and the likelihood of further fighting between Tigrayan forces and those of Eritrea, who were fighting alongside the Ethiopian army. They also examine prospects for a Tigrayan offensive to capture back disputed territory currently held by the Amhara, another of Ethiopia’s ethnic groups. William explains how Abiy has portrayed the withdrawal of government troops and the potential implications of their retreat for his popularity in the rest of Ethiopia. They also discuss the importance of getting aid in and what international actors should focus on in the days ahead. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jun 24, 2021 · 27 min
Biden in Europe
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Michael Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program director, to talk about U.S. President Joe Biden’s first overseas trip since taking office. Biden embarked on a tour of European capitals last week, with a first leg at the G7 summit in the UK, followed by meetings with EU and NATO officials in Brussels and finally a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Geneva. Michael explains that while Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump’s legacy still looms large, his presence among European allies signals a return to more traditional U.S. diplomacy, even if their collective pledge on the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines to vulnerable countries was underwhelming. They discuss prospects for the alliance of democracies Biden had talked up before the trip, the tone and conclusions of the Brussels meetings, and U.S.-Turkey relations after Biden’s first face-to-face encounter with Turkish President Recip Tayyep Erdogan. Michael also unpacks what Biden’s meeting with President Putin means for the future of U.S.-Russia relations. They then discuss the Biden administration’s deepening rivalry with China and the potential dangers in such an approach. For more information, browse Crisis Group’s analysis on our U.S. page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jun 17, 2021 · 33 min
Iran: the Vote and the Bomb
As Iranians go to the polls on Friday to elect a new president, Iranian diplomats are meeting their Western counterparts in Vienna in their latest efforts to get back to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s senior adviser to the president and Iran project director, for an in-depth look at the elections, the nuclear talks and Iran’s role in the region. Ali explains that while elections in the Islamic Republic are never free or fair, this vote is likely to be even less competitive than usual, with the playing field narrowed to favour current front runner, the hardliner Ebrahim Raisi. They talk about how this could relate to Supreme Leader Ali Khameini’s succession plans. They also talk about where things stand in the talks over Iran’s nuclear program, with U.S. and other diplomats locked in a sixth round of talks with their Iranian counterparts aimed at reviving the nuclear deal. They discuss what would happen if the parties fail to reach an agreement. They also talk about the deal’s significance for regional politics and whether recent talks between Iranian and Saudi officials in the Iraqi capital Baghdad offer some hope of calming the bitter Iran-Saudi rivalry that has overshadowed the region for decades. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Iran page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jun 10, 2021 · 34 min
COVID-19, Inequality and Protests in Colombia
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Renata Segura, deputy program director for Latin America and the Carribean, and Beth Dickinson, senior analyst for Colombia, about the anti-government protests across Colombia. They discuss what the deadly unrest looks like, a controversial tax reform proposed in April that triggered protests and the blockades that have sprung up across the country’s cities, towns and villages. They unpack protesters’ demands, notably the role of the COVID-19 pandemic in aggravating already rife inequality, and how police crackdowns have further fuelled people’s anger. They also talk about how Colombian society views the protests, whether protesters’ demands are widely shared and how likely it is that President Ivan Duque’s government will take measures to address their grievances. They discuss the likelihood of similar protests elsewhere in Latin America, given that many other countries in the region suffer the same inequality, worsened by COVID, that has taken people to the streets in Colombia. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Colombia page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jun 3, 2021 · 36 min
The Insurrection in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and guest co-host Comfort Ero, our Interim Vice President and Africa Program Director, talk to Crisis Group’s Deputy Africa Director Dino Mahtani about the insurrection unfolding in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado region. The militants - known locally as al-Shabab, and now labelled by the U.S. as a branch of the Islamic State - have been terrorising the population for years now without clearly stating their demands. Dino talks about who they really are and what their interests might be. He also discusses the Southern African Development Community (SADC) meeting in Maputo coming up in two weeks’ time, when the bloc plans to lobby for the deployment of a regional force, amid growing fears that the conflict could spread beyond the borders of Mozambique. Dino unpacks the government’s response to al-Shabab, its turn to Rwanda for military support as it attempts to diversify its security partners, and what the next steps should be. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
May 27, 2021 · 32 min
What Does Hamas Want?
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood talks to Tareq Baconi, Crisis Group’s senior Israel/Palestine analyst, about Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist movement that governs Gaza. They talk about how Hamas views the latest bout of violence which saw the group fire more than 4,000 rockets at Israel, provoking Israel’s bombardment of the strip. Tareq looks at how Palestinians in Gaza and elsewhere view the movement, its relations with its main Palestinian rival Fatah and its efforts to navigate geopolitical changes in the Middle East. They also discuss the conditions imposed by the Quartet (the European Union, Russia, the UN and U.S.) on Hamas after it won elections in 2006: that the group recognise Israel, as well as previous agreements with Israel, and renounce violence. They discuss debates within Hamas about those conditions and about its use of tactics that target civilians. They talk about whether, after this latest bout of fighting, there is any prospect of moving beyond an uneasy ceasefire punctuated by outbreaks of Hamas rocket fire and Israeli bombardments that perpetuate suffering in Gaza. For more information: Tareq Baconi, “Hamas Contained: The Rise and Pacification of Palestinian Resistance”, Stanford University Press Explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Israel/Palestine page Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
May 20, 2021 · 43 min
Another War: Views from Israel/Palestine
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group experts Azmi Keshawi, Tahani Mustafa and Mairav Zonszein, respectively based in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, about the latest war – the fourth between Hamas and Israel in the past fifteen years. Azmi talks about his experiences in Gaza under intense Israeli bombardment, what Hamas hopes to achieve with its rocket fire into Israel and whether anything will change for Gaza after a ceasefire. Tahani and Mairav discuss how the war and the events that led to it have looked from the West Bank and East Jerusalem and from Israel. They discuss how Israeli and Palestinian leaders have responded and what Israel hopes to achieve with the bombardment of Gaza. They describe the violence between Palestinians and Israeli Jews in Israel and the West Bank and how much that is a game changer for Israel. They also talk about the shifting terms of the debate in the U.S. within the Democratic party and what that might mean for American policy. They reflect on how much a ceasefire would change the conditions that led to the fighting and what the longer-term implications of this latest war are for Israelis and Palestinians. For more information: Read our recent Q&A: The Israel-Palestine Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Portents. Hold Your Fire! E34: Delayed Palestinian Polls, Israeli Politics and U.S. Middle East Policy Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
May 12, 2021 · 36 min
UN Security Council Crankiness and Antonio Guterres' Re-election
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group’s UN Director Richard Gowan. They reflect back on Antonio Guterres’ first term as UN Secretary-General now that he is seeking a second. They discuss his approach to crisis diplomacy, some of the challenges and some of the successes over the past five years. They also talk about Security Council dynamics, particularly the fraught relations among its most powerful members, and what those mean for its role and that of the Secretary-General in peacemaking. They look ahead to the big challenges Guterres is likely to face in the next five years. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Multilateral Diplomacy page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
May 6, 2021 · 42 min
Delayed Palestinian Polls, Israeli Politics and U.S. Middle East Policy
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Daniel Levy, president of the U.S./Middle East Project, which works in partnership with Crisis Group on Israel/Palestine. They talk about why President Mahmoud Abbas indefinitely postponed Palestinian elections, and why not holding the vote is a wasted opportunity and a disappointment to many Palestinians. They discuss recent Israeli elections, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s struggles to form a government and whether those make any difference to Israel’s policy toward the Palestinians. They also talk about what the Biden administration’s Israel/Palestine policy might entail, prospects for a “rights-based” approach and the recent Human Rights Watch report that labels Israeli policies toward the Palestinians as “apartheid”. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Israel/Palestine page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.