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C.O.B. Tuesday

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C.O.B. Tuesday is a weekly one-hour talk show that serves as a knowledge pipeline for the energy industry and the energy curious. We host honest, timely, conversations with people we believe can improve the discussion, can provide new perspectives, can share unique insights into key energy issues, and can discuss inventive, pragmatic solutions for a stronger energy future. Produced by Veriten. 

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  • 25 episodes
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Episodes 25

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  • S2 · E329
    May 27 · 1 hr 2 min

    "China Just Keeps Extending Their Lead" – Marshall Carver, Tulane University

    Today we were pleased to host Marshall Carver, Professor of Finance at Tulane University, who is currently in Beijing teaching students through a joint program with the University of China Academy of Social Sciences (UCAS). We have known Marshall since his time at Tudor Pickering Holt, and he has since built a 20+ year career in equity and debt research. He joined the Tulane faculty five years ago and teaches energy-focused courses including energy investment banking, financial modeling, risk management, and equity research. We were excited to visit with Marshall and hear his firsthand perspectives from China. In our conversation, Marshall shares his experiences teaching energy finance and financial modeling in Beijing and his broader observations on China’s rapidly evolving energy, manufacturing, and technology landscape. We discuss China’s aggressive long-term focus on manufacturing, AI, renewable energy, batteries, EVs, automation, and infrastructure development through centralized five-year planning, and he explains why he believes China continues extending its lead across several energy transition industries. We explore parallels between the U.S. shale boom and China’s current EV and renewable energy expansion, including the intense competition, quick scaling, overcapacity concerns, and profitability challenges facing many companies. Marshall outlines the differences he sees between Chinese and U.S. students in areas such as technology and AI tools, spreadsheet modeling, and engineering-focused education. We cover China’s growing emphasis on energy security and its increasingly “all-of-the-above” approach to energy development, including coal, nuclear, renewables, and EV infrastructure investments. We also discuss the country’s fast-growing EV ecosystem, long-range hybrid vehicles, AI and robotics adoption, and the broader geopolitical and industrial competition between China and the United States. We touch on demographic and real estate challenges within China, the role automation could play in offsetting labor constraints, and Marshall’s fascinating personal observations from spending significant time on the ground in Beijing. It was a highly interesting discussion, and we appreciate Marshall for sharing his time and insights. Mike Bradley started the show by noting that this is a holiday-shortened trading week, with most markets trading on hopes of an imminent Iranian deal, even as those hopes are ironically being overshadowed by ongoing military strikes within the Gulf. On the bond market front, 10-year bond yields were trading just under 4.5% (down from a recent peak of ~4.7%) on optimism that inflation could begin to ease if a potential Iranian deal materializes. On the crude oil market front, WTI prices had pulled back to $92-$93/bbl (down $3-$4/bbl) amid growing optimism that an Iranian deal could be forthcoming. On the broader equity market front, markets continue to post new all-time highs (dialing in a significant amount of optimism), despite the ongoing cycle of weekly on-and-off talks with Iran. On the energy equity front, investors currently appear to be sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see which direction oil prices ultimately break. He ended by noting that energy investors also seem to be positioning for the next major Energy/Electric sector deal now that 1Q26 earnings calls are in the rearview mirror. Arjun Murti discussed several major themes emerging from the ongoing Iran conflict and broader energy markets. He emphasized that nothing about the current geopolitical backdrop appears to be slowing the ongoing “power super cycle,” particularly given strong hyperscaler earnings, capex growth, and continued AI-driven electricity demand. He also pushed back on the idea that oil is entering a new long-term super cycle and reiterated Veriten’s view that the market environment is better characterized as “geopolitical super vol,” with continued spikes and pullbacks driven by geopolitical developments rather than structurally higher long-term oil prices. He outlined what Veriten is calling the “Four Ds” of pragmatic energy policy: maximizing domestic production, diversifying energy sources and technologies, doing more with existing assets, and embracing digital transformation and AI. Arjun ended by highlighting China as a notable example of a resource-constrained country pursuing an aggressive “all-of-the-above” strategy across coal, renewables, automation, and AI.

  • S2 · E328
    May 20 · 48 min

    "Alaska Is Back on the Map for Investors" – Governor Mike Dunleavy and Secretary Doug Burgum

    This week we had the exciting opportunity to travel to Anchorage, Alaska, to participate in the Fifth Annual Alaska Sustainable Energy Conference. The conference convenes researchers, industry leaders, entrepreneurs, policymakers, and investors to discuss the future of energy development, infrastructure, technology, and resource leadership across Alaska and the broader global energy landscape. We had the honor of moderating a discussion featuring Governor Mike Dunleavy and Chairman of the National Energy Dominance Council and U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. Given Alaska’s strategic importance across energy, critical minerals, infrastructure, and geopolitics, it was a fascinating and timely discussion. In our conversation, Governor Dunleavy emphasizes the dramatically improved partnership between the federal government and the State of Alaska under the current Administration, contrasting it with prior years when Alaska faced significant federal restrictions on development. Drawing on their experiences leading major energy-producing states, Governor Dunleavy and Secretary Burgum reflect on the operational, economic, and political realities of energy development and infrastructure investment. They walk us through renewed lease sale activity, rising investor interest in Alaska, and the broader role Alaska could play in supporting U.S. energy dominance and Western Hemisphere energy security. We explore the increasing importance of affordable, reliable, and secure energy in attracting manufacturing, AI infrastructure, and industrial investment, as well as the rapidly growing electricity demand tied to data centers and advanced technologies. Secretary Burgum provides an overview of the Administration’s efforts to accelerate permitting reform and reduce regulatory bottlenecks, including examples of projects receiving approvals in weeks rather than years. We touch on domestic mining and critical mineral development, LNG exports, the role of nuclear, hydro, geothermal, and natural gas in future energy systems, and the Administration’s broader push to accelerate infrastructure and resource development across the United States. We cover the transformational potential of the Alaska LNG project, the growing energy needs of U.S. allies across Asia, the importance of codifying regulatory and permitting reforms for long-term investment certainty, and why Governor Dunleavy and Secretary Burgum both believe Alaska is entering a new “golden age” of development and opportunity. Thank you to Governor Dunleavy for inviting us and to Secretary Burgum for joining us for a thoughtful discussion on the future of Alaska, energy, and American economic development and energy security. About Governor Mike Dunleavy Governor Mike Dunleavy arrived in Alaska in 1983 as a young man looking for opportunity, and he found it. His first job was working in a logging camp in Southeast Alaska. Later on, Governor Dunleavy earned his teacher’s certificate, and then a Master of Education degree from the University of Alaska Fairbanks. He spent nearly two decades in northwest Arctic communities working as a teacher, principal, and superintendent. Governor Dunleavy and his family moved to Wasilla in 2004, where he owned an educational consulting firm and worked on several statewide education projects. Dunleavy served on the Mat-Su Borough School Board, with two years as Board President, and then as a state senator for five years. Dunleavy was first elected Governor in 2018 and then again in 2022. Governor Dunleavy has kept the health of the economy and jobs at the forefront of his Administration’s policy setting initiatives and has been a true champion for the Alaskan business community. Governor Dunleavy’s wife Rose is from the Kobuk River Valley community of Noorvik. Together, they have three children who were raised in both rural and urban Alaska. Governor Dunleavy is focused on moving Alaska forward and believes that our greatest years are yet to come if we work together to maximize our potential. About Secretary Doug Burgum Doug Burgum is the 55th Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior. Raised in Arthur, North Dakota, Burgum worked as a chimney sweep to help pay his way through North Dakota State University before earning an MBA from Stanford University. In 1983, Doug literally “bet the farm” to provide seed capital for a software startup called Great Plains. Doug led Great Plains through a successful IPO and grew the company to over 2,000 employees before its acquisition by Microsoft. Burgum remained with Microsoft for six years as the Senior Vice President of Business Solutions. Doug later co-founded Arthur Ventures and served as chairman for international software companies including Atlassian, SuccessFactors, and as a board member for Avalara. In 2016, Burgum was elected to serve as North Dakota’s 33rd Governor. In 2020, he was re-elected in a landslide. Under his leadership, North Dakota passed the largest tax cut in state history and dramatically reduced red tape. As a testament to Burgum’s leadership, Forbes named him “America’s Best Entrepreneurial Governor.” During his tenure, North Dakota experienced the highest growth in real GDP and had the lowest unemployment rate in the country. Burgum has three adult children. He is married to Kathryn Burgum, a nationally recognized advocate for addiction recovery. We hope you enjoy today’s discussion as much as we did. This certainly won’t be our last trip to Alaska. Our best to you all!

  • S2 · E327
    May 13 · 55 min

    "RCP8.5 Is Officially Dead" – Roger Pielke Jr., American Enterprise Institute

    Today we were thrilled to welcome back our good friend Roger Pielke Jr., Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author of The Honest Broker on Substack (linked here). Roger’s research focuses on science and technology policy, climate policy, energy policy, extreme events and disasters, the politicization of science, governmental science advice, and sports governance. He is a Professor Emeritus at the University of Colorado Boulder and served as a professor in the Environmental Studies department for over 23 years. We were eager to visit with Roger to discuss the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s elimination of the RCP8.5 scenario. As always, we value Roger’s perspective and appreciate his insights on the latest trends in climate science and beyond. In our conversation, we explore the evolving state of the decarbonization debate and how energy policy is increasingly being reframed beyond climate alone to include affordability, security, and reliability. Roger walks us through the significant and underreported decision to retire the extreme RCP8.5 climate scenario and explains the flawed assumptions, notably around global coal expansion, that underpinned its widespread use. We discuss the important distinction between scenarios and predictions, and how the misuse of these models shaped policy, regulation, and public perception for over a decade. We examine why climate scenarios have historically lagged real-world developments, the incentives across academia, media, and policy that reinforced reliance on extreme outcomes, and the growing gap between modeled projections and actual energy and emissions trends, including a shift toward more moderate long-term outcomes. We cover the implications for infrastructure, capital allocation, insurance, and regulatory frameworks, including how these scenarios have been embedded in tools such as the social cost of carbon, as well as the need to revisit key inputs like population growth, and how these dynamics are playing out across regions grappling with real-world trade-offs between affordability and decarbonization. Roger highlights the limited awareness and media coverage surrounding these developments, despite their significance. More broadly, he discusses the opportunity to separate climate science from policy debates to enable a more pragmatic and less polarized approach to energy decision-making, while emphasizing the need for more dynamic, diverse, and frequently updated modeling frameworks going forward. It was a fascinating and insightful discussion. Mike Bradley started the show by noting that even after 10 weeks, markets still seem consumed by and are trading on the Iran war. On the bond market front, the 10-year U.S. bond yield moved higher on Tuesday to ~4.45% due to a hot CPI print. U.S. bond yields have been inching higher amid increasing concern of what the Iran war could hold for short/long-term inflation. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 continues to trade near all-time highs (dialing in optimism for an end to the Iran war), which appears somewhat disconnected from other markets. In the past 5 trading days, the S&P 500 was up ~1.5% with the Technology sector outperforming (up ~6%) as it seems to be retaking market leadership. On the oil market front, WTI was trading at ~$102 per barrel (sideways from last Tuesday’s close). WTI price seems to have temporarily settled in an $85 to $105 per barrel trading range, with the lower end dialing in an end to the Iran war and the higher end a continuation. Mike also noted that Saudi Aramco's CEO warned this week that roughly one billion barrels of oil have been pulled from global storage and that an additional 500 million barrels could be pulled (even if the Iran war ends soon), which likely keeps oil prices elevated into 2027. On the Energy sector fron

  • S2 · E326
    May 6 · 54 min

    "A Mine Is Tougher Than an Oil and Gas Field" – Alfredo Álvarez, EY Latin America

    Today we were pleased to welcome Alfredo Álvarez, Industrial and Energy Leader at EY Latin America, for a wide-ranging discussion on the evolving energy, mining, and investment landscape across the region. Alfredo joined us from his office in Mexico City. We were especially excited to host Alfredo on Cinco de Mayo, as it felt like an opportune time to take a broader look at Latin America. In recent weeks and months, we have had several conversations focused on Argentina, Venezuela, Cuba, and Mexico. We were thrilled to hear Alfredo’s insights on capital flows, geopolitical dynamics, and development trends, as well as his perspective on the region’s evolving investment landscape. In our conversation, Alfredo walks us through the evolving energy, mining, and industrial landscape across Latin America, highlighting the region’s significant resource base and growing strategic importance, particularly in mining, where Latin America holds a dominant share of global reserves. We discuss the resurgence in oil and gas activity across South America, including momentum in Argentina, Brazil, and Guyana, as well as early signs of reopening in Venezuela. We explore the shifting political and investment climate across the region, with improving conditions in countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru, alongside continued challenges in Mexico and Colombia. We cover China’s expanding role in Latin America through investment, financing, and trade, particularly in mining and infrastructure. Alfredo shares his perspectives on emerging opportunities in frontier markets like Bolivia and Guyana, the growing role of digitalization in driving efficiency across energy and mining, and the broader theme of Latin America re-emerging as a compelling, albeit complex, destination for global capital. Thank you to Alfredo for joining us and sharing his thoughtful perspectives. Jeff Tillery kicked off the show by noting that U.S. equity markets continue to push to new highs, with the S&P 500 up ~10–11% year-to-date and the Nasdaq up ~16%, even as crude prices have risen sharply. Despite this backdrop, the broader market appears to be largely shrugging off medium-term energy risks. Meanwhile, energy executives have become increasingly vocal about potential supply shortages, disruptions, and broader economic impacts. While some of that commentary may reflect industry positioning, there is a growing concern that prolonged energy constraints could create more meaningful economic headwinds. At the same time, early signs are emerging of increased domestic oil activity, with producers beginning to ramp up completion activity, suggesting increased oil output could follow. Mark Castiglione added his questions and perspective to the discussion as well.

  • S2 · E325
    April 29 · 1 hr 9 min

    "You’re Not Deterring a Country… You’re Deterring a Man" – Eyck Freymann, Author of "Defending Taiwan"

    Today we had the pleasure of hosting Eyck Freymann, Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, published April 15 (linked here). His research focuses on strategies to preserve peace and protect U.S. interests and values in an era of systemic competition with China. He holds four degrees in history and China Studies form Oxford, Cambridge, and Harvard. In Defending Taiwan, Eyck outlines an integrated strategy to deter war with China and preserve an honorable peace. We appreciated the opportunity to explore the book’s key themes and hear Eyck’s perspective on a highly intricate geopolitical environment. In our conversation, we explore the evolving geopolitical landscape surrounding China, Taiwan, and the broader U.S.-China strategic competition. Eyck shares his perspective that Taiwan is less the end goal and more the first “real test” of a much larger ambition by China to reshape the global order across technology, energy, and institutions. We discuss how Xi Jinping’s centralized leadership and long-term vision are shaping China’s approach and why understanding the motivations of a single decision-maker is increasingly important in assessing risk. We examine how deterrence is changing in this environment, with Eyck outlining the need for a more layered approach that spans diplomatic, military, economic, and strategic dimensions. We discuss how the longstanding policy of strategic ambiguity is being tested as the balance of power evolves, and what it means to deter not just a system, but a leader who may perceive a viable path to success under certain conditions. We explore how a potential conflict over Taiwan may not begin with a traditional military invasion, but rather through more indirect forms of pressure, such as economic or regulatory actions that could force global companies to respond. Eyck highlights how these “gray zone” scenarios, alongside the strategic importance of Taiwan’s role in global semiconductor supply chains, could create difficult choices for the U.S. and its allies, particularly if escalation occurs outside of conventional military frameworks. We also discuss the broader structure of an increasingly competitive and interconnected global system, as well as the growing importance of economic strategy, supply chains, and alliances in shaping outcomes. Eyck shares his view on the concept of “avalanche decoupling” as a more realistic pathway forward, alongside the need for stronger coordination with allies, a more robust defense industrial base, and renewed focus on domestic capacity. We also touch on the role of economic and financial pressure as a potential alternative to kinetic conflict, as well as the evolving dynamics between China and Russia. It was a dense and insightful conversation, and we’re thankful to Eyck for joining. Mike Bradley started the show by noting that equity markets were moving sideways this week. In fixed income, he highlighted that 10-year Treasury yields were trading around 4.35%, driven by a better-than-expected consumer sentiment report. Looking ahead, Wednesday’s FOMC meeting is expected to result in no change to interest rates. However, Chairman Powell’s press conference will be closely watched, particularly for commentary on global supply chain disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict and the potential implications for both near- and longer-term inflation. In equities, markets continue to hover near all-time highs, with many investors viewing conditions as technically overbought and reflecting optimism around a potential resolution to the Iran conflict. In oil markets, WTI was trading near $100/bbl (up $8/bbl from last Tuesday’s COBT), largely due to the absence of a finalized Iran deal. Within the energy sector, investor focus has cent

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