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C.O.B. Tuesday

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C.O.B. Tuesday is a weekly one-hour talk show that serves as a knowledge pipeline for the energy industry and the energy curious. We host honest, timely, conversations with people we believe can improve the discussion, can provide new perspectives, can share unique insights into key energy issues, and can discuss inventive, pragmatic solutions for a stronger energy future. Produced by Veriten. 

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  • 24 episodes
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  • S2 · E342
    Wednesday · 1 hr 1 min

    "We’re at the Beginning of a New Industrial Age" – Erin Price-Wright, Andreessen Horowitz

    Today we had the pleasure of hosting Erin Price-Wright, General Partner in American Dynamism at Andreessen Horowitz (a16z). Erin joined a16z from Index Ventures in 2024, where she was a Partner focused on software infrastructure and applied AI. She previously served as Head of Product for Palantir’s data analytics and machine learning program. The American Dynamism practice invests in founders and companies that support the national interest spanning aerospace, defense, public safety, education, housing, supply chain, industrials, and manufacturing. We were thrilled to hear Erin’s perspective on the rapidly evolving intersection of AI, energy, and industrial technology. In our conversation, Erin shares the story behind a16z’s American Dynamism practice and its early investments in companies including SpaceX, Anduril, Applied Intuition, Shield AI, and Skydio. She discusses how the firm’s conviction in the space developed well before the recent surge of interest in industrial technology. We explore the convergence of AI, supply chain vulnerabilities, geopolitical pressures, reindustrialization, and skilled labor shortages, which Erin believes are creating the conditions for the “next great American industrial build-out.” We discuss physical AI and robotics, the potential to automate dangerous, expensive, and labor-intensive activities across energy and industrial operations, the challenges of deploying physical AI, and the importance of taking a practical approach to automation by starting with specific activities where the economics make sense and expanding from there. We touch on why venture capital is returning to energy and industrial technology, China’s advantage in deployment versus the U.S.’s strength in experimentation and entrepreneurship, and the importance of permitting and regulatory certainty. We also examine data centers and the broader question of whether America wants to build, Erin’s thoughts for energy and industrial leaders looking to accelerate innovation within their organizations, and much more. Special thanks to Erin for joining! We look forward to partnering with a16z on our upcoming Energy & Industrial Technology Showcase in Houston on September 10. Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by noting that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was trading at ~4.65%, down ~10bps on the week but still near its highest level of the year. Bond investors are focused on the ongoing Canada tariff dispute, Wednesday’s Core PCE inflation report, and Chairman Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Major equity indices finished lower last week but are modestly higher this week, with attention now centered on NVIDIA’s second-quarter earnings report Wednesday and its 6- to 12-month capital spending outlook. Turning to energy markets, Mike highlighted that WTI crude oil had declined ~$5/bbl this week to ~$82/bbl following the Treasury Secretary’s announcement of “Operation Economic Outcast,” aimed at increasing economic pressure on Iran. EU natural gas prices rose another ~$1/MMBtu to ~$23/MMBtu, with storage levels remaining a concern ahead of winter. The energy sector was modestly lower this week but remains up ~5% month-to-date, led by refiners (+~12%). In power, electric utilities are down ~5% month-to-date, while IPPs, large-scale generators, and distributed generation providers are down ~10%–15% on average, largely reflecting higher interest rates and growing state-level opposition to data center development.

  • August 21 · 54 min

    "The Responsibilities That Come With A Facility Like This Are Big" – Jared Wimberley, PBF Energy

    Continuing our California COBT Series, we are excited to share this Special Edition featuring PBF Energy. We had the pleasure of touring PBF’s 700-acre Torrance Refinery and met with Jared Wimberley, Refinery Manager. The facility has a nameplate crude capacity of 166,000 barrels per day and a Nelson Complexity Index of 13.8. It produces approximately 1.8 billion gallons of gasoline annually, representing roughly 10 percent of California’s gasoline demand. In addition to blending three grades of gasoline, the refinery produces diesel fuel, jet fuel, liquefied petroleum gases, coke, and sulfur. We were thrilled to visit the facility, meet members of the team, and see firsthand the scale and complexity behind a critical piece of California’s energy infrastructure. In our conversation, Jared highlights the critical role the Torrance Refinery plays in California’s energy system, economy, and local community. We discuss the refinery’s nearly century-long history, its significant economic impact and high-quality jobs, the complexity and safety of modern refinery operations, and the importance of maintaining strong relationships with the City of Torrance and surrounding community. Jared shares his perspective on California’s challenging refining environment, including high power and operating costs, regulatory complexity, access to California crude, workforce development, and the implications of declining in-state refining capacity. We explore the connection between reliable local energy production and affordability, including how energy costs ripple through the broader economy, from transportation and manufacturing to groceries and other everyday goods. California’s economy continues to depend on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, electricity, and petroleum-derived materials, making the future of refining an important part of the broader conversation around the state’s competitiveness, energy security, and cost of living. We close with Jared’s perspective on the opportunity for California to balance its environmental goals with the need for reliable, affordable energy and a strong economy.

  • August 20 · 56 min

    "Diablo Canyon Is The Largest Generating Facility In California" – Maureen Zawalick, PG&E & Matt Crozat, NEI

    We are thrilled to share this Special Edition COBT. Continuing our California Series, we had the opportunity to tour the Diablo Canyon Power Plant and sit down with Maureen Zawalick, Senior Vice President and Chief Risk Officer at PG&E Corporation, and Matt Crozat, Executive Director of Strategy and Policy Development at the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI). Our visit was particularly timely as the U.S. Department of Energy recently awarded PG&E $271 million to support extended operations at Diablo Canyon, while Governor Gavin Newsom recently indicated he would leave the decision on extending the plant beyond 2030 to the next administration. Diablo Canyon produces nearly 10% of California’s electricity and is the state’s only operating nuclear power plant. In our conversation, we explore Diablo Canyon’s history and critical role in California’s power system, the remarkable shift from plans to close the plant to extending its operating life, and how rising electricity demand, electrification, AI, and data centers are reshaping the state’s energy outlook. We discuss the broader nuclear renaissance, the importance of preserving and investing in existing nuclear plants, and the role nuclear power plays in providing affordable, reliable power and grid stability. We cover the regulatory path for Diablo Canyon beyond 2030, the benefits of long-term planning for workforce retention and uranium procurement, and the plant’s impact on electricity affordability. Maureen shares PG&E’s approach to safety and risk management, including seismic safety, water use and environmental stewardship, wildfire, cyber, AI, and the importance of culture and processes in managing risk. We discuss Diablo Canyon’s relationship with the surrounding community and the importance of public engagement and outreach. We end by looking ahead to new nuclear technologies and SMRs, changing attitudes toward nuclear energy at both the state and federal levels, California’s nuclear moratorium, and the need for durable, long-term energy policy. We also discuss the connection between affordable and reliable electricity, manufacturing, economic competitiveness, and where businesses ultimately choose to invest and grow. It was a fascinating discussion and an incredible opportunity to see Diablo Canyon firsthand.

  • S2 · E341
    August 19 · 1 hr 33 min

    "The Art Of The Possible Is Phenomenal" – Francisco Leon, California Resources Corporation

    We are excited to continue our California COBT Series with a discussion featuring Francisco Leon, President and CEO of California Resources Corporation (CRC). This episode was the culmination of a full day with the CRC team studying California’s oil and gas complex firsthand. We started at the Port of Long Beach, traveled north to CRC’s Elk Hills operations near Bakersfield, and ended the day in Santa Clarita, where we sat down with Francisco to discuss what we had seen and the broader outlook for California energy. Along the way, we visited with Dean Persinger, Vice President of the Wilmington Production Complex, at the Port of Long Beach; Gabby Gonzales, Senior External Affairs Advisor, at Elk Hills to discuss CRC’s community engagement efforts; as well as Joe Jephson, Engineering Manager at Carbon TerraVault, and Brent Ilott, Vice President of Operations of the Elk Hills Production Complex. The day gave us the opportunity to see the breadth of California energy production up close and better understand the infrastructure and policies shaping the state’s energy system. It was a unique opportunity to see CRC’s operations firsthand and spend time with the people working across the company’s California footprint. In our conversation with Francisco, we discuss the changing energy landscape in California and the state’s efforts to balance affordability, reliability, environmental priorities, and local energy production. Francisco shares his perspective on a more constructive environment for energy investment, including improved permitting activity in Kern County and the growing focus on the costs and energy-security implications of relying on imported energy. We discuss CRC’s evolution into a broader California energy platform and the significant optionality across its existing asset base. We explore the history and future of CRC’s Long Beach and Elk Hills operations, including conventional oil and gas production, power generation, carbon capture and sequestration, and the proposed Golden Valley data center development. We cover CRC’s recently announced Crimson acquisition and the strategic value of ~2,000 miles of pipeline infrastructure across California, the company’s broader consolidation strategy following the Aera and Berry transactions, and how CRC could increasingly serve as both an operator and an enabler for additional capital, partnerships, and development in the state. Francisco also shares his thoughts on company culture, community engagement, and the importance of working constructively with regulators, political leadership, and local communities. Mike Bradley patched in and kicked us off by noting that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was trading at ~5.3%, its highest level in two decades, despite relatively subdued inflation data the previous week. He highlighted the record pace of bond issuance financing the AI infrastructure buildout and the possibility that it could be competing with heavy U.S. government issuance for capital and contributing to higher borrowing costs. Turning to equities, both the Dow and S&P 500 have modestly declined this week as second-quarter earnings season winds down and investors look ahead to NVIDIA’s results next week. In energy markets, WTI crude had risen ~$3/barrel this week to ~$85/barrel, largely reflecting expectations that the Iran conflict will remain an ongoing issue as the 60-day MOU expires. European natural gas prices have also increased to ~$22/MMBtu, up ~$2/MMBtu over the past couple of weeks. TTF prices are now up ~140% this year, with EU storage levels, particularly in Germany, well below seasonal five-year averages and below levels seen in 2021 ahead of the sharp increase in gas prices during the 2021-2022 winter. The energy sector has posted modest gains alongside higher crude prices. With second-quarter earnings largely complete, Mike expects sector performance to be driven by oil prices, the broader equity market, and company-specific fundamentals. In power, he highlighted Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro’s executive order imposing stricter oversight on proposed data centers, including electricity and water-use guidelines and local approvals, effectively giving communities greater influence over siting decisions. Mark Castiglione joined us throughout the day and added his questions and perspective to the discussion.

  • S2 · E340
    August 12 · 1 hr

    "We Are Morally Obligated To Lean Into This" – Mike Fey, Island.io

    Today we are thrilled to welcome Mike Fey, Co-Founder and CEO of Island.io, for a robust discussion on AI, technology, and the future of work. Mike is a seasoned technology executive and entrepreneur with deep experience in enterprise software and cybersecurity. Founded in 2020, Island is reimagining the enterprise browser as a platform that brings together access, security, and productivity, enabling employees to move faster while giving organizations the governance and control required at enterprise scale. We were pleased to hear Mike’s perspective on this rapidly evolving landscape. In our conversation, Mike first shares Island’s origin and founding premise: to improve the knowledge worker’s experience while building security into the platform rather than adding it as an afterthought. We explore Island’s philosophy of enabling employees to move quickly and innovate within an enterprise framework of security and governance, extending controls designed for human knowledge workers to “agentic knowledge workers,” and using the browser as an enterprise platform to replace legacy IT infrastructure and potentially consolidate portions of the security stack. Mike shares his perspective on why expectations for near-term enterprise AI ROI are often unrealistic and why successful adoption requires more than simply giving employees access to AI. We discuss the importance of creating a secure environment in which employees can experiment, build, share, and deploy AI while choosing the right AI model for the job and finding the right mix of sovereign, enterprise-controlled, and cloud-based AI. We examine how the valuable asset in AI may increasingly be the proprietary context, data, and workflows feeding models rather than simply the resulting work product. Mike explains how Island can give enterprises visibility into where data originated, who or what accessed it, why an action occurred, and how those capabilities become increasingly important as agents begin interacting with other agents. We explore Island’s “tactically strategic” approach to enterprise adoption, starting with practical, self-funding opportunities to simplify the technology stack and reduce costs while building the foundation for broader AI adoption. Mike discusses M&A as one example, where establishing a secure shared environment can allow companies to begin realizing value from an acquisition before completing the full IT integration. We discuss what boards should be asking about AI, how AI adoption is currently increasing worker capability rather than simply eliminating jobs, and the challenge of scaling AI across large organizations. Mike describes adoption as a “crawl, walk, run” process and argues that most companies remain in the crawl stage. He explains why companies shouldn’t wait to establish AI capabilities and shares examples of organizations using AI not simply to improve existing processes but to transform their business models. We end the session with Mike’s compelling view that AI adoption is a leadership obligation: companies should prepare their employees to remain capable and competitive in an AI-shaped economy rather than allow their skills to become outdated. It was a riveting discussion and we greatly appreciate Mike’s passion for the industry and his enthusiasm for the possibilities. Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion with observations on the fixed income market, noting that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was trading at ~4.7% ahead of Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI reports, which could help shape expectations for the Fed’s next interest rate decision. In equities, the DJIA and S&P 500 were each down approximately 30 basis points. With second quarter earnings season largely complete, Mike highlighted Intel’s $20 billion equity offering to fund capital expenditures, which was reportedly oversubscribed by more than five times. Turning to energy, WTI crude oil had risen approximately $5/bbl this week to roughly $83/bbl, reflecting growing skepticism that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will fully normalize in the near term. Mike noted that Iran-related policy has been a key driver of oil price volatility over the past two months. The energy sector had gained approximately 5% this week alongside higher crude prices. With second quarter energy earnings essentially complete, Mike wrapped by reviewing key themes across oilfield services, E&Ps, integrated oil majors, refiners, midstream, and power and electric utilities. Robby Kester and Veriten Senior Advisor Deborah Byers also joined and added their valuable technology perspectives and questions throughout the conversation.

  • August 6 · 45 min

    "Stop Talking, Start Working" – Leif Johan Sevland, Offshore Northern Seas Foundation

    This week we had the privilege of hosting Leif Johan Sevland, President and CEO of the Offshore Northern Seas Foundation (ONS), for a Special Edition. Leif is a Norwegian business leader and former politician with a distinguished career spanning public service and the energy sector. Prior to joining ONS, Leif served as the Mayor of Stavanger from 2005 to 2011. The ONS 2026 Conference is fast approaching, taking place from August 24–27 in Stavanger, Norway. The conference is held biennially and attracts 70,000+ global industry leaders representing over 1,100 companies and 35+ countries. We were honored to host Leif to preview this year’s conference, its major themes, and the trends shaping Norway’s, Europe’s and the world’s energy landscape. In our conversation, Leif shared a preview of what attendees can expect at ONS 2026 and how this year's conference theme, Courage, is intended to challenge industry leaders to move beyond discussion and embrace decisive action in addressing the world's evolving energy needs. We explore Norway's unique position as both a leading oil and gas producer and an energy innovator, discussing how energy security, affordability, technological innovation, and shifting geopolitical dynamics are reshaping energy markets, investment priorities, and policy around the world. We examine Europe's evolving innovation ecosystem, the accelerating adoption of AI and its growing impact on power demand, renewed interest in nuclear energy, and the convergence of energy, defense, and industrial technologies. Leif emphasizes the importance of open dialogue, global collaboration, and developing the next generation of industry leaders, and shares how ONS brings together policymakers, operators, investors, entrepreneurs, and innovators to exchange ideas and help shape the future of energy. The Veriten team will be at ONS, participating in a few panels, and connecting with good friends and with some of our partner and portfolio companies that will also be in attendance. Mike Bradley started off the discussion by noting that two key market themes remained in place: lower oil prices and stronger equity markets. The 10-year Treasury yield remained range-bound, showing little directional movement. On the equity market front, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up ~500 to 600 points on the day, with gains driven primarily by Amgen, Caterpillar, and Goldman Sachs. On the oil market front, downward pressure on crude prices continued, with WTI falling by approximately $1/bbl to around $75/bbl. The decline was driven largely by market optimism that the temporary pause in U.S. military strikes on Iran would remain in place. He noted, however, that oil prices appear increasingly oversold from a technical perspective, having declined roughly $10 to $15/bbl over the past one to two weeks. As a result, crude prices could rebound sharply should the current military pause end or geopolitical tensions re-escalate. He concluded by highlighting key takeaways from Saudi Aramco’s 2Q earnings call, noting that management delivered a decidedly bullish message on the outlook for global oil markets. According to Aramco, oil markets are far tighter than many indicators/prices suggest. Aramco noted that global markets lost ~11mmbpd of supply because of the conflict and shipping disruptions; strategic reserve releases and inventory drawdowns have masked the true extent of the shortage; inventory data understates physical market tightness; global inventories have been heavily depleted and must now be rebuilt over several years; and it would take around 18 months and roughly 2.1mmbpd of incremental demand just to restore inventories to pre-conflict levels if conditions normalize immediately. We were fortunate to also have Veriten Venture Partner Karl Liapunov join and share his insights throughout the discussion. Karl is the founder of Starting Cold and is the U.S. Ecosystem Partner at Startuplab, where he previously served as Head of Energy & Climate Tech in Oslo.

  • S2 · E339
    August 5 · 1 hr 5 min

    "If You Control Food Security, You Can Control National Security" – Corey Rosenbusch, The Fertilizer Institute

    Today we had the pleasure of hosting Corey Rosenbusch for a wide-ranging discussion on the fertilizer industry, global energy markets, and the geopolitical forces increasingly shaping both. Corey is the President and CEO of The Fertilizer Institute (TFI), headquartered in Arlington, Virginia. Corey joined TFI in 2020 after serving as President and CEO of the Global Cold Chain Alliance. He currently serves as Chair of the Texas A&M University Agricultural Leadership, Education & Communication Department Advisory Board and the Association Leadership Group. We were thrilled to host Corey to better understand the connections between fertilizer, natural gas, food security, and global supply chains. In our conversation, Corey provides a comprehensive overview of the global fertilizer industry and its critical connection to energy markets. He explains how natural gas serves as the essential feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production, outlines the distinct dynamics of nitrogen, phosphate, potash, and sulfur markets, and discusses why fertilizer has become increasingly intertwined with global geopolitics, food security, and national security. We examine how disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affected global flows of urea, ammonia, phosphate, and sulfur, why export restrictions from China and Russia have reshaped global trade, and how government subsidies, tariffs, and state-owned enterprises continue to influence fertilizer pricing and availability. Corey highlights the concentration of global fertilizer production and exports across a handful of countries and explains how those supply chains have become increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical disruption. Corey shares why current fertilizer market conditions differ from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine disruption, how weak farm economics and higher input costs are impacting U.S. growers, and why fertilizer prices are ultimately driven by global supply and demand rather than local production. We discuss the outlook for fertilizer demand, key Farm Bill provisions, including E15 and biostimulants, the competitiveness of U.S. fertilizer manufacturing, and why expanding domestic production, streamlining permitting, and maintaining access to affordable natural gas will be critical to strengthening both U.S. food security and energy security. We learned a great deal from Corey and greatly enjoyed the discussion. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted the day's market trifecta: lower bond yields, lower oil prices, and higher equity markets. The 10-year Treasury yield was trading between 4.60% and 4.65%, well below last week's high of ~4.75%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up approximately 1,000 points, driven largely by significant share price gains in Caterpillar and Goldman Sachs. These two stocks alone accounted for roughly 500 points of the DJIA's gain. He highlighted several companies scheduled to report second-quarter earnings results this week, including AMD, Disney, Eli Lilly, and SpaceX. On the oil market front, he noted that WTI crude oil prices had fallen roughly $9/bbl to ~$75-$76/bbl so far this week following a temporary pause in U.S. military strikes on Iran. While U.S. strikes are on hold for now, military action could resume at any point, contributing to heightened oil price volatility. Despite WTI declining more than 10% this week, the energy sector was down only ~1.5%. Investor focus last week was primarily on second-quarter earnings results from the U.S. integrated oil majors, Chevron and ExxonMobil, as well as refiners, with management teams indicating that global refining margins remain structurally tight. He highlighted BP's new CEO's comment that it would be "prudent" to stop thinking of BP as a traditional Big Oil supermajor and instead compete within its own weight class. He concluded by highlighting President Trump's remarks about to Chevron’s and ExxonMobil’s record-setting quarterly results. President Trump argued that these companies were making too much money and should return more of their profits to the public and lower retail prices. Chevron and ExxonMobil generated average second-quarter profit margins in the mid-to-high teens and have generally reported high single-digit to low-double-digit profit margins over the past three years. By comparison, large-cap tech companies reported average second-quarter profit margins of ~40% and have averaged ~45% to 50% profit margins over the last three years. Jeff Tillery added his perspective on the outlook for U.S. natural gas demand, noting that forecasts call for roughly 20 bcfd of cumulative demand growth over the next five years. While significant, he emphasized that this largely represents a continuation of trends already underway. U.S. natural gas demand increased by nearly 20 bcfd over the past five years, driven primarily by LNG exports, and he expects exports to remain the primary driver of growth going forward. While he remains constructive on the long-term natural gas demand outlook, he emphasized that the next phase is more evolutionary than transformational.

  • S2 · E338
    July 29 · 1 hr 2 min

    "Natural Gas Is An AI Vertical" – James West, Melius Research

    Today we were delighted to welcome James West, Managing Director and Head of Energy and Power Research at Melius Research. James is a longtime energy analyst with more than 25 years of experience leading research teams covering oilfield services, equipment, clean energy, and power at Lehman Brothers, Barclays, Evercore ISI, and now Melius. Since joining Melius, James has expanded his coverage to include independent power producers (IPPs) and the broader power ecosystem. We were pleased to visit with James to hear his latest perspectives on the rapidly evolving energy landscape and the investment themes shaping the next decade. In our conversation, James reflects on his transition from Evercore ISI to Melius and explains why he believes the traditional Wall Street research model is evolving toward a more integrated approach that combines energy, power, technology, and industrials. We discuss how AI-driven electricity demand is accelerating the convergence of these sectors, why access to reliable power has become the biggest bottleneck to AI deployment, and why understanding the entire energy value chain has become increasingly important for investors. We examine the latest earnings season, the recent wave of energy, power, and nuclear IPOs, and how investor sentiment has shifted from enthusiasm around AI infrastructure to a greater focus on execution and capital discipline. James explains why he remains constructive on the long-term outlook for oilfield services, offshore development, international upstream activity, independent power producers, and natural gas, while highlighting the growing importance of behind-the-meter power solutions, regulatory reform, and grid infrastructure. We explore the outlook for advanced nuclear, geothermal, and critical minerals, Canada's strategic role in North American energy markets, how investors are balancing long-duration growth opportunities with near-term market volatility, and why AI is changing the way companies communicate with investors. As James notes, “your press releases have to be written for Claude or ChatGPT, whoever’s going to read it before the analyst.” We wrap up the discussion with James’ reflections on New York City’s enduring role as a global financial and innovation hub. We greatly enjoyed the conversation and appreciate James taking the time to join us. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that fixed income markets were focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting, scheduled for Wednesday. The consensus expectation is for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged. However, there remains a small possibility of a 25-basis-point rate increase, a move that could place Chairman Warsh in President Trump's crosshairs. From a broader equity market standpoint, the S&P 500 was up ~0.5% and the DJIA had gained 600 to 700 points. He attributed much of Tuesday’s advance to the sharp decline in oil prices. He also highlighted ongoing sector rotation, with investors shifting capital out of semiconductor stocks and into industrial names. Apple joined the exclusive $5 trillion market-cap club. Another key area of focus this week will be AI-related capex, with three of the Magnificent Seven technology companies scheduled to report earnings. On the oil market front, he highlighted the sharp decline in crude prices, noting that Brent crude had fallen by ~$13/bbl during the week to ~$83/bbl, while WTI crude had declined by ~$11/bbl to ~$78/bbl. He attributed the selloff to rapidly shifting sentiment surrounding the on-again, off-again conflict with Iran. He concluded by noting that the Energy sector had been one of the market’s strongest performers over the past several weeks but was down ~4% this week as declining oil prices weighed on sentiment. He emphasized that investors will be closely focused this week on second-quarter earnings reports from the U.S. integrated oil majors and refiners. Investors are hopeful that refiner commentary will provide greater insight into global refined product market fundamentals. Jeff Tillery noted that enthusiasm around AI-driven power infrastructure has cooled alongside AI capex sentiment, pressuring many merchant power and generation stocks, including several recent IPOs. Looking ahead, he believes the sector is entering an execution phase where investors will begin distinguishing between winners and losers rather than rewarding the entire theme uniformly.

  • July 23 · 57 min

    "Humanoid Robots Are The Ultimate TAM" – Martin Viecha, MV Motion Advisory

    We are pleased to continue our COBT California Summer Series with today’s episode featuring Martin Viecha, Founder and Advisor at MV Motion Advisory. Prior to founding MV Motion, Martin served as the Vice President of Investor Relations at Tesla and previously spent several years as a sell-side equity research analyst covering the automotive and technology sectors. Based in Palo Alto, MV Motion is focused on robotaxis and autonomy, humanoid robots, and the evolving automotive landscape. We were delighted to host Martin for a wide-ranging discussion on the technologies shaping the future of transportation, robotics, and AI. In our conversation, Martin provides a comprehensive overview of the rapidly evolving autonomous vehicle and humanoid robotics landscape. We discuss why he believes robotaxis are approaching a mainstream adoption inflection point, transitioning from a Silicon Valley novelty to a service that will soon be available across much of the U.S. He explains why California, Texas, and Florida have emerged as leading deployment markets, how expanding permitting and improving safety records are accelerating adoption, and why safety, utilization rates, and cost per mile will ultimately determine the industry’s winners. We explore Tesla’s camera-only autonomous driving approach versus Waymo’s multi-sensor strategy and the long-term implications for automakers, ride-hailing platforms, insurance, and vehicle ownership. We examine China’s growing leadership in EVs and robotics, the enormous long-term potential for humanoid robots, the significant technical hurdles that remain around dexterity, world models, and data collection, and why geopolitics, national security, and public policy are likely to play an increasingly important role in shaping the future of advanced robotics and AI. Martin outlines why, despite the excitement surrounding humanoid robots, they remain considerably further from widespread commercialization than robotaxis due to the vastly greater complexity of replicating human movement and decision-making. It was a fascinating discussion. We look forward to staying connected with Martin and continuing to follow his research. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that the next three to four weeks will be dominated by second-quarter earnings reports. From a fixed income perspective, U.S. Treasury yields have continued to trend higher, driven in part by rising energy prices and their inflationary impact. The S&P 500 was up modestly on the day, gaining roughly 0.25%. In commodities, Brent crude oil rose approximately $2/bbl to around $94/bbl amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. President Trump also formally approved a landmark agreement with Saudi Arabia to support the development of a civilian nuclear program in the kingdom, potentially opening the door to uranium enrichment activities there. In energy and power equities, GE Vernova (GEV) shares fell approximately 8% following earnings as the company fell short of highly elevated investor expectations despite reporting solid gas turbine performance and providing robust forward guidance. In contrast, Weatherford International (WFRD) shares rose as much as 9% after delivering strong quarterly results and a more optimistic outlook for the second half of 2026 than the market had anticipated. With equity markets trading near all-time highs and quarterly and second-half 2026 expectations remaining extremely elevated for many companies, Mike noted that the next three to four weeks of earnings reports could generate significant market volatility. Ellen Wilkirson also joined the discussion and peppered in her technology questions and perspectives.

  • S2 · E337
    July 22 · 57 min

    "The Chinese Economy Is Built On Oil And They Are Dependent On Oil" – Giacomo Prandelli, The Merchant’s News

    Today we had the pleasure of hosting Giacomo "Jack" Prandelli, Founder of The Merchant’s News Substack. The Merchant’s News covers oil, gas, LNG, metals, and geopolitics, with a particular focus on global trade flows, commodity markets, and the macro forces shaping energy prices. Jack is a former commodities trader who has built a large global following on LinkedIn and X through his data-driven analysis of rapidly evolving geopolitical events and energy markets. We were pleased to visit with Jack to discuss the Strait of Hormuz crisis, the resilience of global oil markets, and the evolving geopolitical forces reshaping the global energy landscape. In our conversation, Jack explains why he believes oil prices have been far more resilient than many expected despite the Strait of Hormuz crisis. He walks us through a few charts and outlines how coordinated releases from strategic petroleum reserves, a stronger-than-anticipated recovery in global oil flows, and increased production from the U.S. and Middle East producers helped offset supply disruptions. We discuss the evolving balance of power in global energy markets, including the growing influence of U.S. production, China's role as the world's largest oil importer, and what the conflict revealed about OPEC, strategic petroleum reserves, and the resilience of the global energy system. Jack outlines why refining, not crude supply, has emerged as the market's primary constraint, how Russian refinery attacks and China's inventory strategy have reshaped global energy flows, and why he believes the market remains structurally bullish over the longer term. We also explore the shift toward energy security, deglobalization, and the changing geopolitical landscape as countries increasingly prioritize control over energy, refining, and commodity supply chains. We greatly appreciate Jack for joining us and sharing his insights. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that fixed income markets continue to trend higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to ~4.62% and the 30-year Treasury yield reaching ~5.14%. Both benchmarks are nearing the peak levels seen during the height of the Iran war, highlighting bond market concerns around inflation. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 was up just under 1% for the week to date, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was Tuesday's standout performer, gaining ~400 points on strength in industrial stocks, led by 3M, whose shares surged ~8%. Several high-profile companies are scheduled to report results this week, including Alphabet (Google), Tesla, IBM, Intel, and NextEra Energy. On the oil market front, Brent crude was trading at ~$91/bbl, up ~$3/bbl for the week and ~$15/bbl over the past two weeks. Notably, Brent settled above $90/bbl for the first time since early June. Mike noted that the energy complex is wrestling more with global refining constraints than a global crude oil supply shortage. As evidence, U.S. Gulf Coast refining crack spreads have risen to ~$70/bbl, up from ~$60/bbl three weeks ago and from ~$25/bbl prior to the onset of the Iran war. He concluded by noting that investors are turning their attention to second-quarter earnings across the oilfield services sector, with Halliburton kicking off the group's reporting season on Tuesday. Several other key service providers are scheduled to report this week, including Weatherford International, Liberty Energy, Oceaneering International, and SLB. The broader energy sector will also be active, with earnings expected from EQT Corporation, Range Resources, Equinor, Kinder Morgan, Ovintiv, TotalEnergies, and Repsol. Veriten Senior Advisor Deborah Byers also joined and added her perspectives and questions throughout the conversation.

  • July 16 · 54 min

    "Permitting Can Really Strangle Our Country If We Don’t Fix It" – U.S. Senator Alan Armstrong

    We are excited to share this Special Edition featuring Senator Alan Armstrong (R-OK). Senator Armstrong, alongside Senators Rick Scott (R-FL), Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), Katie Britt (R-AL), and James Lankford (R-OK), recently introduced the American Energy and Mineral Infrastructure Act. The legislation seeks to modernize the federal permitting process for energy and mineral infrastructure projects while preserving strong environmental protections. We were delighted to host Senator Armstrong to discuss his experience in Washington, the motivation behind the legislation, and what it could mean for the future of U.S. infrastructure development. In our conversation, Senator Armstrong discusses his transition from leading Williams Companies to serving in the U.S. Senate and explains why permitting reform has become one of the country's most pressing economic and national security priorities. He walks us through the American Energy and Mineral Infrastructure Act, outlining how the legislation seeks to streamline federal permitting, reduce unnecessary litigation, provide greater regulatory certainty for project developers, and create a more predictable process for building critical infrastructure. We explore how permitting delays increase costs for consumers, discourage private investment, and threaten America's economic and technological competitiveness as electricity demand accelerates alongside AI and data center growth. Longer term, it’s not an overstatement to say failing to address these issues will also threaten the country’s national security. Senator Armstrong shares his perspective on building bipartisan support for permitting reform, maintaining an energy source-neutral approach, and ensuring that pipelines, transmission lines, nuclear facilities, and other critical infrastructure can be built in a more timely and predictable manner. We touch on the growing importance of grid reliability, the intersection of permitting reform and national security, and why he believes the current Congress has a unique opportunity to address these long-standing challenges before rising power demand and infrastructure constraints become even more acute. The discussion was especially timely as the push is on to get permitting reform done during this Congress. The Senator emphasized, “Who in the world would oppose this? We’re going to be asking that question exactly on the floor tomorrow as we’re starting to put pressure on moving this bill forward.” We greatly appreciate Senator Armstrong for joining us and for his leadership on this important issue. To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted key market developments, noting that favorable inflation data has supported markets this week. Cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI reports released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to roughly 4.55% and reduced near-term pressure on the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. In commodities, Brent and WTI crude oil prices appeared to have temporarily stabilized at approximately $85/bbl and $80/bbl, respectively, despite President Trump’s escalation of military strikes against Iran. On the equity front, the S&P 500 was up about 0.25% on the day, supported by the favorable PPI report. Telecom was the top-performing sector, gaining roughly 2.5% to 3.0%, led by Google, following reports that Berkshire Hathaway had taken a large position in the stock. He concluded by highlighting the significant value creation achieved during Alan Armstrong’s tenure as CEO of Williams Companies. Veriten Senior Advisor Bill Flores also joined the discussion, offering valuable perspective on the legislative process and the dynamics in Washington.

  • S2 · E336
    July 15 · 1 hr 13 min

    "Commercialization Is Really Around the Corner" – Dr. Michl Binderbauer, TAE Technologies

    This week we had the exciting opportunity to travel to Lake Forest, California, to tour TAE Technologies’ facilities and spend time with the company’s CEO, Dr. Michl Binderbauer. Founded in 1998, TAE has spent nearly three decades pursuing one of the energy industry’s most ambitious goals: commercializing a safe, sustainable, and economically viable source of fusion energy. With renewed momentum in the fusion industry, we thought it was the perfect time to visit TAE and better understand why many believe fusion’s moment may finally be approaching. Our visit also marks the beginning of a California COBT series, where over the coming weeks, we'll highlight some of the state's innovative companies, technologies, and leaders. We will also touch on a challenge or two the state is facing. Stay tuned! In our discussion, Michl explains why he believes fusion has reached a true inflection point after nearly three decades of scientific and engineering progress. He outlines why TAE was founded with the “end in mind,” deliberately choosing the more technically challenging hydrogen-boron fuel cycle because it offered the best path to a commercially viable power plant rather than simply proving the science. We explore how advances in AI, machine learning, advanced computing, and materials science have accelerated development, why TAE believes commercial fusion is now measured in years rather than decades, and how the company is preparing to build its first demonstration power plant. We discuss TAE’s innovative approach to commercializing technologies developed along the way, including its advanced power management platform that is finding applications in AI data centers, industrial facilities, and grid modernization. Michl shares his vision for fusion’s role in delivering abundant, reliable energy to meet the world’s rapidly growing electricity demand, the importance of recent U.S. regulatory reforms, the race with China to commercialize fusion, workforce and supply chain challenges, and why he believes fusion has become not only an energy opportunity, but also an economic and national security imperative. We look at what the next five years could look like for TAE, why hyperscalers, industrial customers, and the Department of War may become some of fusion’s earliest adopters before widespread utility deployment, the company’s long-term vision for a more distributed electric grid, and much more. It was a fascinating and wide-ranging discussion, and we greatly appreciate Michl for sharing his time and insights. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that markets have been volatile this week. He highlighted that the cooler-than-expected CPI report sparked a rally in Treasuries, driving the 10-year yield down from roughly 4.65% to 4.55%, and said Wednesday's PPI report will be another important data point for the Fed. U.S. equities also moved higher, with the S&P 500 gaining approximately 0.5% on the back of the CPI report and strong bank earnings, while the Dow lagged following a sharp selloff in IBM shares after disappointing quarterly results. In commodities, Brent and WTI crude prices climbed roughly $8-$9/bbl this week following the collapse of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire and renewed disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. He emphasized that today's challenge is less a global crude supply issue than a global refining problem, citing tight refined product inventories and the loss of roughly 1.5 million bpd of Russian refining capacity following Ukrainian attacks. He also highlighted that European natural gas prices have surged from approximately $16/MMBtu to $19/MMBtu as storage levels remain 20%-25% below seasonal norms and buyers compete for LNG cargoes. Mike noted that Energy is the best-performing S&P 500 sector this week, up approximately 3%, as investors turn their attention to second-quarter oilfield services earnings. He also highlighted the newly announced strategic alliance between SLB and Liberty Energy focused on data center infrastructure and power solutions, noting that similar partnerships are likely to become increasingly common across the energy sector.

  • July 10 · 1 hr 4 min

    "We Win on Innovation Ten Out Of Ten Times" – Dr. Rian Bahran, U.S. DOE Office of Nuclear Energy

    With the recent wave of milestones across the U.S. nuclear sector, we were eager to better understand what these achievements mean for the future of advanced reactors. Over the past month, Antares, Valar Atomics, Deployable Energy, and Aalo Atomics each achieved criticality, an important technical milestone, through the Department of Energy's Reactor Pilot Program (RPP) and Nuclear Energy Launch Pad. To help us put these milestones into context, we were delighted to host Dr. Rian Bahran, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Reactors in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy. Rian oversees the Department's portfolio for advanced reactor research, demonstration, and deployment, and is a career member of the Senior Executive Service who has served under both the Biden and Trump Administrations. We were thrilled to visit with Rian to "demystify" the latest developments in U.S. nuclear and discuss what still needs to happen before these technologies reach commercial scale. In our conversation, Rian explains why the four recent criticality milestones represent an important step forward for advanced nuclear. While criticality is not the finish line, he shares how these demonstrations help validate a new commercialization pathway by allowing companies to build and test nuclear hardware in months rather than years. He describes how the Department of Energy’s Reactor Pilot and Launch Pad initiatives are creating greater regulatory certainty, helping companies unlock private capital, and accelerating progress toward commercial deployment. We discuss the DOE’s broader strategy for expanding U.S. nuclear capacity, from gigawatt-scale reactors and small modular reactors to microreactors. Rian explains why the DOE is pursuing multiple technologies simultaneously, allowing the market to determine the winning designs while supporting innovation across the reactor, fuel cycle, and supply chain ecosystems. He outlines how reactor uprates, restarts, and investments across the nuclear fuel cycle can provide near-term additions to U.S. generating capacity while advanced reactors continue progressing toward commercialization. We explore the role advanced nuclear could play in powering AI infrastructure, military installations, industrial facilities, and future export markets. Rian discusses how the DOE is leveraging AI to accelerate reactor design, licensing, manufacturing, and deployment, and why workforce development has become one of the industry’s greatest long-term challenges. He emphasizes that the U.S. has reached a true inflection point for nuclear energy, driven by unprecedented alignment across government, industry, private capital, and growing electricity demand. It was a wide-ranging and fascinating discussion, and we sincerely appreciate Rian taking the time to join us during such a busy time. Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that three key themes have driven markets so far this quarter. First, Treasury yields have continued to move higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to approximately 4.55% and the 30-year Treasury yield climbing above 5%. Second, renewed geopolitical uncertainty following the end of the Iranian ceasefire helped lift WTI crude oil prices by roughly $4/bbl this week to approximately $72/bbl. Third, equity markets have experienced notable sector rotation, with investors shifting capital out of semiconductor stocks and back into the Magnificent 7. Mike concluded by highlighting the sharp reversal in sentiment toward small modular reactor (SMR) companies. While SMR stocks were among the market's strongest performers entering 2026 amid growing enthusiasm for nuclear power, the group is now down roughly 30% on average year-to-date. Nick Morriss, Brett Rampal, and Veriten Senior Advisor Bill Flores also joined the discussion, contributing their perspectives and questions on nuclear energy and power.

  • S2 · E335
    July 8 · 1 hr 6 min

    "Let The Water Flow Digitally As Well As Physically" – Adrianne Lopez, Dr. Scott Tinker, and Derek Tinker

    Today we were joined by three outstanding guests to discuss one of the biggest long-term opportunities and challenges facing the Permian Basin: produced water. We were thrilled to welcome Adrianne Lopez, Research and Development Manager at Texas Pacific Water Resources, along with Dr. Scott Tinker, Chairman of Switch Energy Alliance and Director Emeritus of the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas, and Derek Tinker, Founder of Agnostic Data Group. We appreciated hearing each of their perspectives on why produced water has become one of the defining issues for the future of the Permian, the technologies making large-scale desalination increasingly feasible, and how produced water could become a valuable resource for agriculture, power generation, AI infrastructure, and beyond. In our conversation, Scott explains the scale of the challenge, noting that the Permian now produces roughly 20 million barrels of water every day, with water-to-oil ratios continuing to increase across much of the basin. He outlines why disposing of that water through underground injection is becoming more difficult and more expensive, and argues that beneficial reuse represents one of the industry’s largest untapped opportunities. Adrianne walks us through the science behind produced water, explaining why it is significantly more difficult to treat than seawater. She details Texas Pacific’s work developing freeze desalination technology, the company’s new 10,000-barrel-per-day demonstration facility, and why reaching commercial scale, alongside continued regulatory progress, will be critical to improving the economics of produced water desalination. We examine where this water could ultimately be used, from AI data centers and power generation to cotton production and land rehabilitation, and why collaboration between industry, regulators, and technology providers will be essential. We discuss the valuable minerals contained within produced water, including lithium, the role of AI and real-time monitoring in building public trust, and why transparent, independently verified water quality data are as essential as the treatment technology itself. Scott argues that the industry already has many of the technologies needed to move forward. The remaining challenge, he suggests, is creating the economic incentives and regulatory certainty needed to scale solutions that can reduce disposal volumes while creating entirely new sources of water for Texas. As disposal costs continue to rise and desalination costs decline with scale, he believes operators have an opportunity to address a growing operational challenge while reinforcing the industry's long-term position in the Permian. Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that market rotation has been the defining theme in recent trading. While Treasury yields moved modestly higher this week, investors are largely looking ahead to next week's CPI and PPI reports for potential market-moving data. Within equities, semiconductor stocks have pulled back sharply after leading the market for much of the year, while the Mag 7 have recently rebounded. In energy, the sector moved higher alongside a roughly $2/bbl increase in WTI crude to ~$70/bbl following renewed attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Mike noted that oil markets appear to be pricing in a quick return to normal in the region, which may prove optimistic. He also highlighted that second-quarter earnings season begins in earnest during the week of July 20, with several oilfield services companies reporting results. U.S. natural gas prices strengthened on hotter summer weather, while European gas prices rose as below-normal inventories and geopolitical tensions supported the market. Mike concluded by highlighting the IEA's 3Q26 Gas Market Report, which projects global natural gas demand will decline 0.5% in 2026. Robby Kester also joined and added his technology perspective and questions throughout the conversation. We will be staying close to this topic and hope you find the conversation as useful and informative as we did. Our best to you all!

  • S2 · E334
    July 1 · 58 min

    "There’s Ubiquitous Levels of Data Out There" – Jeremy Fraenkel and Brennan Demro, Fundamental

    Today we were thrilled to welcome Jeremy Fraenkel, CEO, and Brennan Demro, Chief Commercial Officer, of Fundamental. We had the opportunity to spend the day with Jeremy and Brennan in Houston visiting with a number of energy companies to discuss how Fundamental's AI technology can be applied across the industry. Fundamental is developing a new category of AI that helps enterprises turn structured data into predictive intelligence, enabling better forecasting, decision-making, and operational performance. In our conversation, we discuss a critical but often underappreciated area of AI: structured and tabular data. Jeremy explains that while large language models have transformed how people work with text, code, images, and video, the vast majority of enterprise data still lives in structured formats, from spreadsheets and databases to sensor data and transaction logs. Fundamental has built Nexus, a foundation model trained on billions of tables. Jeremy and Brennan describe how Fundamental’s model differs from traditional LLMs, particularly around determinism, security, and enterprise deployment. While LLMs can produce different outputs with small changes in wording, Fundamental is designed to deliver consistent, auditable predictions for critical business decisions. We discuss how Fundamental complements large language models within agentic AI workflows, serving as the predictive engine for enterprise data while LLMs handle unstructured information. Rather than replacing LLMs, Jeremy argues that enterprise AI requires both capabilities: LLMs for language and reasoning, and purpose-built models for structured data and prediction. Brennan highlights the company’s ability to deploy within a customer’s own environment, helping address major enterprise concerns around data security and control. We explore how their technology can be applied across energy, including predictive maintenance, asset optimization, demand forecasting, inventory and working capital management, and back-office efficiency. Brennan emphasizes that many energy companies are sitting on decades of rich but underutilized data, and how Fundamental’s approach can help unlock insights from those data sets while augmenting existing data science workflows rather than replacing them. We also touch on AI adoption, proof-of-concept challenges, governance, reliability, and the importance of pairing AI tools with measurable business ROI. Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that financial markets have been relatively subdued over the past five trading days. He reviewed year-to-date performance across several key asset classes, including fixed income markets, broad equity indices, energy equities, electric-centric equities, and oil and natural gas commodities. He highlighted several significant market-moving events that have influenced performance across bonds, equities, and commodity markets this year, providing context behind recent market trends and investor sentiment. Robby Kester and Veriten Senior Advisor Deborah Byers also joined and added their technology perspectives and questions throughout the conversation. We greatly enjoyed hosting Jeremy and Brennan in our offices and hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did. To our Canadian friends, Happy Canada Day! And to everyone celebrating America's 250th Independence Day this week, we wish you a wonderful Fourth of July!

  • S2 · E333
    June 24 · 53 min

    "EV Sales Acceleration Poses Downside Risk to Global Oil Demand" – Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs

    Today we were thrilled to welcome back Daan Struyven, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research and Managing Director, Head of Oil Research at Goldman Sachs. Daan joined Goldman in 2015 and previously co-led Goldman Sachs' Global Economics team as well as the firm’s Canada Economics research effort. Daan and his team recently wrote a report titled “EV Sales Acceleration Poses Downside Risk to Global Oil Demand.” We were pleased to hear Daan’s perspective on the report, the acceleration in global EV adoption following the Iran/Hormuz supply disruption, the outlook for global oil demand and oil prices, and what investors should be watching across the broader energy landscape. In our conversation, we explore the key findings from Goldman Sachs’ recent research on EV adoption, including how higher fuel prices and concerns around energy security may have accelerated EV sales across several major global markets following the Iran/Hormuz supply disruption. We discuss the significant differences in EV penetration rates around the world, the growing influence of Chinese manufacturers, the importance of charging and power infrastructure, and the role government policy continues to play in shaping adoption trends. We examine the outlook for global oil demand, including Goldman’s view that oil demand continues to grow through 2040 despite rising EV adoption, supported by growing energy consumption and the limited availability of substitutes for petrochemical feedstocks and jet fuel. We discuss the recovery of Middle East oil production and exports following the conflict, OPEC supply dynamics, strategic petroleum reserves and stockpiling activity, and why oil prices did not rise as much as many expected during the Iran war disruption. We touch on investor sentiment toward energy markets, China’s role as both a major EV market and a stabilizing force in global oil demand through stockpiling behavior, and tightening power markets driven by rising electricity demand from AI and data centers. We also discuss the interplay between future oil prices, power prices, and EV adoption. Finally, we cover advancements in battery technology, the long-term implications for both the energy transition and global commodity markets, and more. We greatly appreciate Daan for sharing his time and perspectives. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that market volatility is becoming more prevalent across asset classes. From a fixed income perspective, the 10-year Treasury yield is holding steady at approximately 4.5%, with traders closely focused on this week’s PCE Index as a key inflation indicator, particularly in light of the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish tone following last week’s FOMC meeting. In equities, he emphasized the increasing volatility observed in recent trading sessions, especially within Big Tech and the Nasdaq, with semiconductor and chip stocks coming under notable pressure and with several declining by more than 10%. He suggested that market leadership may be shifting, as the Nasdaq lags while the Dow Jones Industrial Average demonstrates relative resilience. Turning to commodities, WTI crude has fallen to around $73/bbl, marking its lowest level since the first week of the Iran conflict. WTI has broken below its 200-day moving average, indicating that oil appears “broken” from a technical trading perspective. He also highlighted a rapid shift in market sentiment, moving from concerns about tightening global inventories to fears that OPEC supply could increase sooner and more significantly than expected. In energy equities, he observed that the sector has declined modestly over recent trading days, with Oil Services bearing the brunt of the losses. Electric utilities have outperformed, serving as a temporary safe haven for investors. He ended by pointing out two notable headlines: first, a partnership between Chevron and Microsoft to develop a co-located power facility in West Texas that will supply electricity to a Microsoft-operated data center under a 20-year PPA; and second, the Department of Energy’s announcement of $17.5 billion in financing to help incentivize/jump start utilities to order equipment for large-scale nuclear reactors. Ellen Wilkirson made her COBT debut and added her questions and perspective to the discussion as well.

  • S2 · E332
    June 17 · 39 min

    "California Means to America What America Means to the World" – Steve Hilton, Candidate for Governor of California

    Today we were pleased to be joined by Steve Hilton, Republican candidate for Governor of California, for a wide-ranging discussion on California’s economic competitiveness, energy policy, affordability challenges, and the future of opportunity in the state. In our conversation, Steve shared his perspective on the policies and reforms he believes are necessary to address California’s rising cost of living, high energy prices, housing affordability concerns, and broader economic challenges. He discussed his campaign proposals to reduce gasoline and electricity costs, reform the state’s tax structure, streamline government, and expand housing affordability. Steve outlined his views on California’s climate, energy, and regulatory policies, arguing for a more pragmatic approach focused on affordability, domestic energy production, economic growth, and reducing bureaucratic complexity. Throughout the discussion, Steve emphasized that California’s long-standing strengths, including its innovation ecosystem, entrepreneurial culture, natural resources, and deep talent base, position the state for renewed growth and competitiveness. We explore the role energy policy plays in economic development, affordability, and business investment, along with the broader challenges facing one of the nation’s most influential economies. We appreciate Steve for sharing his time and look forward to staying in touch as the campaign continues. Mike Bradley opened by noting that a peace agreement to end the 15-week war with Iran appears within reach, with a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) expected to be signed Friday that could lead to a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. While an MOU would represent an important milestone, the greater challenge will be ensuring both sides uphold their commitments. In oil markets, the prospect of a deal drove WTI down ~$8/bbl to ~$77/bbl, its lowest closing level since the first week of the conflict. Focus is now shifting to the post-war landscape, with oil strategists closely watching how quickly tanker traffic normalizes through the Strait of Hormuz and the pace at which OPEC restores supply. While traders appear increasingly bearish in the near term, Mike emphasized a more constructive intermediate-term outlook. From an energy equity standpoint, the sharp decline in oil prices has weighed on the sector, with energy equities pulling back ~4% this week, making it the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500. The energy sector has effectively round-tripped since the start of the war (down ~2%). Despite this, the forward oil curve remains supportive, with the 12-month WTI strip at ~$73/bbl (~$10/bbl higher than pre-war levels), underscoring a more constructive medium-term outlook. Energy’s weighting in the S&P 500 has declined from ~3.5% (pre-war) to ~3.0%, even though recent events have reinforced the critical role of energy. From a U.S. bond market standpoint, the 10-year bond yield (~4.45%) has drifted modestly lower this week. Consensus expects the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with attention focused on forward interest rate guidance and Chairman Warsh’s tone and policy path going forward. From a broader equity market standpoint, the S&P 500 has gained ~1.0% this week, bringing it to within 1% of its all-time high. Several market leaders (Big Tech & Semis) pulled back on Tuesday and could signal an early crack in market leadership. He concluded by highlighting investor enthusiasm surrounding the recent SpaceX IPO (+20% on Day 1 and +45% since its debut), noting that the company is now the fifth-largest publicly traded company globally.

  • S2 · E331
    June 10 · 1 hr 3 min

    "We’ll Try to Become the First AI-Native Oil and Gas Company" – Karl Hersvik, Aker BP

    Today we were delighted to host Karl Hersvik, CEO of Aker BP, in our offices in Houston. Karl has served as CEO since 2014 and has overseen a period of significant growth and transformation at Aker BP. We were thrilled to hear Karl’s insights on operational excellence, artificial intelligence, data architecture, and the future of oil and gas. As you’ll hear, Aker BP has built a differentiated operating model centered on productivity, long-term alliance partnerships, and technology deployment. In our conversation, Karl shares how Aker BP has achieved industry-leading operational performance through a relentless focus on continuous improvement, standardized workflows, and deep collaboration with key service providers. He explains why the company believes data should be treated as a strategic asset and how years of investment in data infrastructure have positioned Aker BP to become what he calls the industry's first "AI-native" oil and gas company. We discuss how AI and agentic workflows are already accelerating engineering, operations, and exploration workflows across the company, enabling faster decision-making, improved productivity, and more efficient capital deployment. Karl introduces the concept of “vibe engineering,” the idea that engineering expertise can be codified into AI agents that perform work in parallel, allowing humans to focus more on training, oversight, and optimization. He argues that this shift has the potential to dramatically compress development timelines and fundamentally reshape how oil and gas projects are executed. Karl provides a fascinating perspective on the future of the energy industry, arguing that AI will create a new generation of winners and losers, while increasing the importance of focus, culture, and organizational adaptability. He also shares his views on energy security, the evolving role of Norwegian oil and gas in Europe, and why resilience, not prediction, will be the defining competitive advantage in an increasingly volatile world. We greatly enjoyed the conversation. Mike Bradley started the show by noting that the Iran war has entered its fifteenth week, with markets still largely trading around developments tied to the conflict. He emphasized that this week will be different, as both institutional and retail equity investors shift their attention to the upcoming SpaceX IPO—pricing Thursday. On the oil front, WTI is currently trading at ~$89/bbl, down ~$2 from last week’s close. He credited the Trump Administration with effectively maintaining a market narrative that a broader Iran resolution is imminent, which has helped keep WTI range-bound between $85 and $105/bbl. However, he cautioned that this narrative may begin to lose traction as markets head into the peak summer demand season. He also noted a gradual shift in oil strategist discussions toward the post-war landscape, particularly around how quickly shut-in production could return to pre-conflict levels. Turning to equities, he pointed out that the S&P 500 is modestly higher this week following a ~1.5% pullback last week, which ended a nine-week winning streak. He noted early signs of strain in the AI trade, as several semiconductor stocks experienced sharp corrections, prompting a rotation into more defensive sectors. He ended by highlighting that Equinor ASA will host its Capital Markets Day next week, marking the 25th anniversary of its listing on both the Oslo and New York Stock Exchanges. Arjun Murti expanded on the Strait of Hormuz discussion by emphasizing that while no one knows exactly how the situation will unfold, current market stability is being supported by inventory draws, SPR releases, and lower Chinese imports, none of which are sustainable indefinitely. He cautioned that a prolonged disruption would ultimately risk a global recession by forcing significant demand destruction, reinforcing the need for a peaceful resolution and a rapid return of shut-in production. More broadly, he reiterated his "Geopolitical Super Vol" thesis, arguing that companies should stop planning around a single oil price outlook and instead prepare for a wide range of outcomes, from deep downturns to periods of $100+ oil. In his view, the winners will be businesses that can remain profitable through volatility, strengthen their balance sheets during periods of strong cash flow, and capitalize on opportunities when competitors are reluctant to invest.

  • S2 · E330
    June 3 · 55 min

    "Two Conflicts In The Past Four Years… People Care About Energy Security" – Steven Kobos, Excelerate Energy

    Today we had the pleasure of hosting Steven Kobos, President and CEO of Excelerate Energy. Steven has served as President and CEO since 2018 and previously spent 11 years as a member of the company’s Board of Directors and corporate counsel. Throughout his career, he has worked across global energy markets, including Kuwait, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Finland, Germany, and the Middle East. Excelerate is a global leader in flexible LNG infrastructure solutions, focused on expanding access to reliable, affordable, and secure natural gas. The company operates one of the world's largest fleets of Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRUs) and provides integrated LNG solutions spanning the entire value chain. We were thrilled to hear Steven’s perspective on the evolving and increasingly complex global energy landscape. In our conversation, we explore the evolution of the global LNG market, the impact of U.S. shale on Excelerate’s business model, and why the company has increasingly focused on integrated LNG and infrastructure solutions rather than simply providing floating regasification assets. We discuss the growing importance of energy security following recent geopolitical disruptions, including tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Steven’s recent visit to the region, and the role LNG continues to play in supporting power generation, industrial growth, and economic development around the world. Steven walks us through Excelerate’s newest FSRU, the Acadia, the company’s expanding opportunities in Iraq, and how LNG imports are helping address power shortages and energy deficits across emerging markets. We discuss the future growth of global LNG demand, the increasing shift toward long-term supply contracts, the advantages of floating infrastructure versus traditional onshore facilities, and Excelerate’s strategy of combining LNG supply with downstream infrastructure to open new markets. We also cover Argentina’s Vaca Muerta opportunity, Brazil’s hydro-backed power system, Finland’s experience with energy security following disruptions to regional gas infrastructure, the growing role of U.S. LNG exports, and the support provided by the Trump Administration to promote American energy abroad. Steven shares several personal anecdotes, including helping launch LNG imports into Kuwait, opening new LNG markets across South Asia, visiting customers throughout the Gulf during the recent conflict, and witnessing firsthand how access to reliable energy can transform communities and economies. We covered a great deal and appreciate Steven for sharing his time and insights. Mike Bradley started the show by noting that markets continue to be driven almost entirely by on-and-off developments in the Middle East. Market sentiment last week was dominated by optimism that Iran and the U.S. were moving toward a Strait of Hormuz resolution, but this week has started with growing concern that a resolution may not be just around the corner. On the bond market front, the 10-year bond yield was trading at ~4.5% (up 6-7bps), driven by an Iranian resolution being pushed further to the right and constructive economic data. He noted that the May ISM Manufacturing report showed that U.S. manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace in four years. On the crude oil market front, WTI prices spiked ~$6/bbl (to $93/bbl) on concerns that an Iranian resolution could be delayed. The Strait of Hormuz needs to reopen quickly or risk global oil prices moving substantially higher, as oil markets enter the higher-demand summer months with critically low inventory levels. From an energy equity perspective, the Energy sector was up ~2% so far this week after a 5% pullback last week. On the broader equity market front, markets were modestly weaker as investors appeared unprepared for the prospect of an Iranian resolution being pushed further into the future. He ended by highlighting two IPOs scheduled to price over the next two weeks. Equity investors are most excited about the SpaceX IPO (expected to price next week at a ~$2T valuation). He also highlighted INNIO Holdings, a gas power system manufacturer that is expected to price later this week (raising ~$2B at a ~$20B valuation), which should provide a good read on how bullish sentiment remains across the engine manufacturing and distributed generation segments. Mark Castiglione added his questions and perspective to the discussion as well.

  • S2 · E329
    May 27 · 1 hr 2 min

    "China Just Keeps Extending Their Lead" – Marshall Carver, Tulane University

    Today we were pleased to host Marshall Carver, Professor of Finance at Tulane University, who is currently in Beijing teaching students through a joint program with the University of China Academy of Social Sciences (UCAS). We have known Marshall since his time at Tudor Pickering Holt, and he has since built a 20+ year career in equity and debt research. He joined the Tulane faculty five years ago and teaches energy-focused courses including energy investment banking, financial modeling, risk management, and equity research. We were excited to visit with Marshall and hear his firsthand perspectives from China. In our conversation, Marshall shares his experiences teaching energy finance and financial modeling in Beijing and his broader observations on China’s rapidly evolving energy, manufacturing, and technology landscape. We discuss China’s aggressive long-term focus on manufacturing, AI, renewable energy, batteries, EVs, automation, and infrastructure development through centralized five-year planning, and he explains why he believes China continues extending its lead across several energy transition industries. We explore parallels between the U.S. shale boom and China’s current EV and renewable energy expansion, including the intense competition, quick scaling, overcapacity concerns, and profitability challenges facing many companies. Marshall outlines the differences he sees between Chinese and U.S. students in areas such as technology and AI tools, spreadsheet modeling, and engineering-focused education. We cover China’s growing emphasis on energy security and its increasingly “all-of-the-above” approach to energy development, including coal, nuclear, renewables, and EV infrastructure investments. We also discuss the country’s fast-growing EV ecosystem, long-range hybrid vehicles, AI and robotics adoption, and the broader geopolitical and industrial competition between China and the United States. We touch on demographic and real estate challenges within China, the role automation could play in offsetting labor constraints, and Marshall’s fascinating personal observations from spending significant time on the ground in Beijing. It was a highly interesting discussion, and we appreciate Marshall for sharing his time and insights. Mike Bradley started the show by noting that this is a holiday-shortened trading week, with most markets trading on hopes of an imminent Iranian deal, even as those hopes are ironically being overshadowed by ongoing military strikes within the Gulf. On the bond market front, 10-year bond yields were trading just under 4.5% (down from a recent peak of ~4.7%) on optimism that inflation could begin to ease if a potential Iranian deal materializes. On the crude oil market front, WTI prices had pulled back to $92-$93/bbl (down $3-$4/bbl) amid growing optimism that an Iranian deal could be forthcoming. On the broader equity market front, markets continue to post new all-time highs (dialing in a significant amount of optimism), despite the ongoing cycle of weekly on-and-off talks with Iran. On the energy equity front, investors currently appear to be sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see which direction oil prices ultimately break. He ended by noting that energy investors also seem to be positioning for the next major Energy/Electric sector deal now that 1Q26 earnings calls are in the rearview mirror. Arjun Murti discussed several major themes emerging from the ongoing Iran conflict and broader energy markets. He emphasized that nothing about the current geopolitical backdrop appears to be slowing the ongoing “power super cycle,” particularly given strong hyperscaler earnings, capex growth, and continued AI-driven electricity demand. He also pushed back on the idea that oil is entering a new long-term super cycle and reiterated Veriten’s view that the market environment is better characterized as “geopolitical super vol,” with continued spikes and pullbacks driven by geopolitical developments rather than structurally higher long-term oil prices. He outlined what Veriten is calling the “Four Ds” of pragmatic energy policy: maximizing domestic production, diversifying energy sources and technologies, doing more with existing assets, and embracing digital transformation and AI. Arjun ended by highlighting China as a notable example of a resource-constrained country pursuing an aggressive “all-of-the-above” strategy across coal, renewables, automation, and AI.

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