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World at Odds

Marty

World at Odds is a podcast about probability in a polarized world.

I’m Matt — a former pro poker player who spent five years making a living at the tables, and someone who’s been limited or banned by multiple tier-one sportsbooks after finding sustained edge in their markets. I’ve spent years studying incentives, pricing, and EV across sports, politics, and macro events.

We break down major stories using logic instead of emotion. What is the market actually pricing in? Where is the crowd overconfident?

The goal isn’t to win the argument. It’s to win in the long run.

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  • 12 episodes
  • fortnightly
  • Avg 31 min
  • English

Episodes 12

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  • S1 · E12
    Today · 25 min

    World at Odds Episode 12 | Selling Harris, Buying Newsom & Will the Dolphins Go 0-17? Off the cuff!

    Episode 12. Andrew and I both forgot we were recording today, so we're doing this one off the cuff.Week 1 went pretty well. I went 4-2 on our official bets, and Andrew hit a 3-leg parlay that he'll admit a good trader probably maybe shouldn't have placed. Meanwhile the Dolphins looked so bad that I'm saying 0-17 out loud now.Then we get into politics. The generic congressional ballot's been moving toward Democrats all month, and I've got the over/under at 30 House seats. Gavin Newsom told Jake Tapper he won't run in 2028 if Kamala Harris does, so I'm selling my Harris shares and stacking Newsom. Andrew thinks this whole "let her decide first" thing is exactly what's wrong with the Democratic Party.Also: Andrew explains why his vote in DC doesn't count for anything, and we pause for an amazing fruit bowl in the middle of the episode.And new this episode: Andrew and I are going head to head all season, same rules as the Circa Million. We each pick 5 NFL games against the spread every week, and you get a point for a win and half a point for a push. There's no money on it, just a bottle of champagne or rosé.Week 2 bets: Andrew and I took opposite sides of Thursday night. I've got the Lions +5.5 and he's got the Bills -4.5, so if Buffalo wins by exactly 5 we both cash. I'm also on the Chiefs -6.5 at home against the Colts (yes, I'm finally betting on my own team). Andrew bought himself an extra point on the Ravens at -6.5 against the Saints. And of course I'm still fading the Dolphins, so this week I've got the 49ers.Links from this episode: Gavin Newsom tells CNN he won't run against Kamala Harris: https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/politics/gavin-newsom-presidential-run-ooo Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 (Polymarket): https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028?r=TaxIsTheft Generic congressional ballot (RealClearPolling): https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/generic-congressional-vote Circa Million VIII ($1,000 entry, $6M guaranteed): https://www.circasports.com/circa-million Magic Markets, where Andrew and I trade NFL spreads: https://magicmarkets.com The Dolphins fade, updated every week: https://www.worldatodds.com/blog/bet-against-dolphins-every-week Episode 11, with the sparkling water story from Andrew's dad: https://www.worldatodds.com/episodes/11-man-vs-machine-vs-the-miami-dolphins Want to come on the show? https://www.worldatodds.com/contact Every bet, win or lose: https://www.worldatodds.com/scorecard. The goal is not to win the argument, it's to win in the long run.

  • September 5 · 35 min

    World at Odds Episode11 | Man vs Machine vs the Miami Dolphins: Our NFL Season Bets

    The NFL starts in a week and this episode is NFL only. No politics. **Update, Sept 10: Two changes to my Week 1 spreads. I didn't take Seattle -3.5 in the end. I copied Andrew's Ravens -3.5 at the Colts instead** The main event: 3 Super Bowl baskets, scored against each other all season. Andrew built an 8-team basket and learned the real name for the strategy from a guy who works in sportsbooks (it's called Dutching, and it's named after a gangster). I built an 11-team basket tilted hard toward 2 teams, so hard that if a couple of my other teams win I barely break even. Then I had my AI build a third one straight off last week's blog post. Also: The Dolphins suck and how you can exploit it. Plus: Magic Markets, the new venue Andrew is using that pulls sportsbook liquidity and prediction-market prices into one book (he's getting the Rams a full cent cheaper than Polymarket). Circa's $20 million no-rake survivor pool, and the $125 you can pay a stranger to enter it for you. And new this episode: A lightning round where Matt looks stupid, as per usual. Week 1 bets: Andrew's on a three-leg parlay with two road teams in it, which I think is a bold move. I'm on 5 spreads, and one of them is exactly what you'd expect from a man hating Miami all season. Links from this episode: The three baskets, published and tracked: https://www.worldatodds.com/blog/model-super-bowl-basket-2026 The Dolphins fade, updated every week: https://www.worldatodds.com/blog/bet-against-dolphins-every-week The model behind the AI basket: https://www.worldatodds.com/blog/nfl-win-totals-vs-polymarket-odds Magic Markets: ⁠https://magicmarkets.com⁠ NFL Champion 2027 (Polymarket): https://polymarket.com/event/big-game-champion-2027?r=TaxIsTheft Circa Survivor ($1,000 entry, $20M guaranteed, registration closes 2pm PT Sat Sept 12): https://www.circasports.com/circa-survivor Episode 10, where Andrew nailed the win-total quiz: https://www.worldatodds.com/episodes Want to come on the show? https://www.worldatodds.com/contact

  • August 28 · 25 min

    World at Odds Episode10 | NFL Is Back: The Lions Are Underpriced, Should Rubio Scare Democrats & Is AOC's Surge a Mirage?

    Ten episodes in, which by podcasting standards makes us middle-aged. The NFL is twelve days out, the World Cup is done, and the midterms are close enough to start piling on. The main event: Matt thinks the Detroit Lions are the most mispriced team on the board. Vegas has them at double-digit wins and one of the softest schedules in the league. Polymarket has them around 4.2 cents, roughly 24-to-1, with nine teams priced above them. The same screen says Dallas is the most overpriced team in football. Matt's theory involves his childhood neighbor's Facebook posts. Andrew objects, on behalf of the entire Midwest. Also: the Emerson poll that has almost every Democrat beating Vance, with two exceptions. AOC loses to both Republicans, Harris loses to Rubio while beating Vance by four, and that nine-point swing between the two GOP names is the whole story. Andrew explains why 2 cents on "AOC runs for neither" is the bet, not 38 on Senate or 62 on president. Matt digs up the alternation pattern in Democratic nominees since 1956 that held 71% of the time until the last three cycles broke it. Plus: Matt keeps buying Democrats to take the House, in at 81 cents and now 89, on his way from 30 units to 50. The Senate sits at 51/51 and he admits he has no read at all. Andrew's Gemini bet resolves green. Matt plans to dump Trump Jr while Andrew leaves a limit order sitting at two and a half cents. New this week: Andrew put 2 units on the Raiders in a preseason game he was watching live, then traded out at half loss before the whistle. Matt took Lions and Bengals to win the Super Bowl at around 25-to-1 apiece. Links from this episode: NFL Champion 2027 (Polymarket): https://polymarket.com/event/big-game-champion-2027 Emerson College August 2026 national poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2026-national-poll/ Every bet, win or lose: https://www.worldatodds.com/scorecard. The goal is not to win the argument, it's to win in the long run.

  • August 10 · 36 min

    World at Odds Episode09 | We're Back: World Cup Confessions, Betting the 2026 Midterms & NFL Value Picks

    We're back, and it's midterms season. After a long summer hiatus (Matt got his tonsils out at an age where you really shouldn't, Andrew watched wildebeest get eaten in Tanzania), we return to Matt's favorite thing to bet on: the 2026 midterm elections on Polymarket. The main event: the weird gap in the markets right now. Eight of the ten closest Senate races lean Democrat, and Republicans are still favored to keep the Senate. We get into why that's not actually crazy, what mid-decade redistricting does to a blue wave, why the House looks like a lock, and the 20-unit bet Matt just put on R Senate / D House at 40 cents. His third-biggest bet of the year. Also: the World Cup postmortem. Andrew built a basket, held it like he tells everyone to, and profited when Spain won. Matt was long Argentina, turned down a guaranteed 10 units chasing 90, and even extended his flight to watch it go wrong. Guess who's smug this episode. Plus early Super Bowl baskets (we like Bengals, Lions and Chargers; we don't like the Chiefs and Bills prices), the SpaceX ticker bet finally resolves, and Andrew bets against Google shipping a new Gemini Pro model by August 14. Insider trading, but as a spectator. Links from this episode: Balance of Power, 2026 midterms (Polymarket, referral link): https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms?r=TaxIsTheft RealClearPolling generic ballot, this-day-in-history vs past midterms: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/this-day-in-history/generic-ballot/2026-vs-2022-vs-2018-vs-2014-vs-2010 Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net

  • S1 · E8
    May 10 · 31 min

    World at Odds Episode08 | Polymarket's Hidden Fees, Senate Paradox & Belgium at 50-to-1

    Andrew's up 150% on the year — but sitting in all cash with nothing to bet on. Matt walks through his best opportunities right now: Democrats to take the House at 83¢, hantavirus at 10¢, the aliens bet, and Ken Paxton's Texas Senate runoff. Then we get into the real stuff: how to actually make consistent money on Polymarket. Bet what you know, chase reward markets, use limit orders, and think like a trader — not a gambler. Andrew breaks down his weather swing-trade strategy (buy at 30¢, sell at 35¢, done for the day), and Matt digs into Polymarket's fee structure — 1.8% on crypto, 1.0% on politics, 0.75% on sports, plus maker rebates that can actually put you in the green. We also spotted something weird: Republicans are favored to win the Senate at 53%, but if you add up the individual seat markets, Democrats are winning more seats. Low liquidity or real signal? We'll deep-dive midterms next episode. New bets: Both of us are buying Belgium to win the World Cup at 2¢. 🕐 Timestamps00:00 — Andrew's gambling confession01:10 — Best bets right now: House, hantavirus, aliens, Paxton08:30 — How to make money on Polymarket11:49 — Trading vs. holding: swing-trade strategy16:07 — Polymarket fee breakdown21:33 — Senate midterms: the odds paradox26:53 — New bets: Belgium World Cup at 2¢29:51 — What makes us optimistic right now 🔗 LinksPolymarket Midterms Dashboard: https://polymarket.com/predictions/midtermsArbitrage Calculator: https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/arbitrage-calculatorPrediction Market Converter: https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/prediction-market-converterScorecard: https://www.worldatodds.com/scorecardWorld Cup Betting Strategy: https://www.worldatodds.com/blog/world-cup-field-betting-strategy

  • #7
    April 26 · 31 min

    World at Odds Episode07 | Masters Meltdown, World Cup Basket Strategy, Alien Market Glitches, Andrew Becomes a Weatherman, & NHL Playoff Picks

    Matt and Andrew return to break down their Masters disasters — Andrew had the winner (McIlroy at 7¢) and sold him drunk on pasta in Italy, while Matt lost 8 units betting against him. They unpack the "equal shares under a dollar" strategy and apply it to the 2026 World Cup, where the entire field's overround is just 2.2%. Matt reveals a compounding "money glitch" on the alien confirmation market, Andrew discovers weather betting as his new edge (including the guy who gamed a Paris weather station with a hairdryer), and they rant about bloated playoff formats in the NHL, NBA, and rugby sevens. Bets of the week: Andrew goes long on London hitting 18°C, Matt buys a 7-team NHL Stanley Cup basket for 11 units. Timestamps:00:00 — Masters postmortem: Andrew's pasta-fueled meltdown04:40 — Matt's Masters losses & the "set it and forget it" lesson06:36 — Andrew's Italy trip recap08:49 — World Cup 2026 basket strategy & overround math13:17 — World Cup excitement scale & bloated tournament formats16:08 — NHL & NBA playoff rant (overtime, seven-game series, mid-season tournaments)18:10 — Alien market update: the monthly rollover "money glitch"21:45 — Weather betting: local APIs, Hong Kong heat, and the hairdryer hack27:10 — Bets of the week: London weather & NHL Stanley Cup basket Free betting tools, blog posts, and our full scorecard at worldatodds.com Try the Arbitrage Calculator: worldatodds.com/tools/arbitrage-calculator Read: "How I Made $2,900 Betting the Texas Senate Primary" — worldatodds.com/blog/texas-primary-edge Follow us on X: https://x.com/worldatodds

  • April 5 · 38 min

    Odds Episode06 | Polymarket Fees, Democrat Nomination Arbs, Masters Picks, SpaceX Ticker Bet, & Still Undefeated

    Polymarket drops trading fees — we break down what it means for takers and makers. Matt reveals his "free money" strategy buying the entire Democratic 2028 field for a guaranteed ROI, and we both lock in our Masters golf picks ahead of next weekend. Plus: our SpaceX ticker symbol bet (X vs. Other), Final Four profit updates, a Lyon mayoral election win, and the birth of ESUaD — Equal Shares Under a Dollar. (00:00) Intro (01:00) Polymarket Fee Announcement (02:54) Democrat Nomination Arbitrage Strategy (10:08) AI-Powered Betting Dashboards (11:16) Rapid Fire: Serious vs. Not Serious Candidates (13:08) AOC & the Nate Silver Take (16:48) Good Buy / Bad Buy Preview (20:03) The Masters — Our Picks & Strategies (27:02) Final Four & Arizona Profit Update (29:05) World Cup Teaser (30:20) Old Bets Wrap-Up & Lyon Mayoral Election Win (32:36) New Bet: SpaceX Ticker Symbol (X vs. Other) (37:06) ESUaD & Closing Free betting tools, blog posts, and our full scorecard at worldatodds.com Try the Arbitrage Calculator: worldatodds.com/tools/arbitrage-calculator Read: "How I Made $2,900 Betting the Texas Senate Primary" — worldatodds.com/blog/texas-primary-edge Follow us on X: https://x.com/worldatodds

  • S1 · E5
    March 21 · 25 min

    World at Odds Episode05 | Still Undefeated, Kalshi v. Arizona, World Baseball Classic Arbs, & French Mayoral Elections

    Still undefeated. Five for five on resolved bets — including Tim nailing the Oscars Best Picture pick from Episode 2. This week we dig into the prediction market industry itself: Kalshi just raised a billion dollars at a $22B valuation while simultaneously getting sued in Arizona. Is it a prediction market or a gambling operation? Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi are both catching heat over "death markets," nuclear detonation bets, and the Netanyahu hoax. We break down what's real outrage and what's moral grandstanding. Matt walks through his World Baseball Classic betting strategy — finding massive price discrepancies between sportsbooks and Polymarket (Italy at 35:1 on OddsChecker vs. 144:1 on Polymarket), trading in and out of positions live, and why the U.S. was overindexed. Andrew discovers 5-minute Bitcoin markets mid-recording and immediately starts live betting during the show. We also talk about following whale wallets on prediction markets, a tool called Predictfolio for tracking top traders, and why you should be skeptical of "insider" trading narratives — including a wallet that just lost $120K betting Netanyahu was dead. New bets this week: Matt: Arizona to win March Madness at 12¢ (1 unit) Andrew: Grégory Doucet to win the Lyon mayoral election at 80¢ (5 units) Links: Website: https://www.worldatodds.com Free tools https://www.worldatodds.com/tools (arb calculator, hedge calculator, odds converter): Arbitrage calculator: https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/arbitrage-calculator Hedge calculator: https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/hedge-calculator Scorecard (live bet tracker): https://www.worldatodds.com/scorecard New blog — How to read Polymarket prices vs. sportsbook odds: https://www.worldatodds.com/blog/polymarket-odds-explained Predictfolio (whale wallet tracker): https://predictfolio.com OddsChecker (odds aggregator): https://oddschecker.com

  • March 7 · 44 min

    World at Odds Episode04 | AI Trading Fails, Texas Election Edge, Masters Arbitrage

    In this episode of World at Odds, Andrew and I try to build AI trading bots for Polymarket. The experiment does not go well. One bot immediately nukes a bankroll by selling 93-cent shares for one cent. Good reminder that AI still needs adult supervision. We also break down a prediction market edge in the Texas Senate primary, where understanding runoff rules created a pricing opportunity most traders seemed to miss. Finally, we explore a potential Masters betting arbitrage strategy and whether AI can help test it. If you like prediction markets, probabilistic thinking, and finding edges in weird places, this episode is for you. Coming soon: WorldatOdds.com

  • S1 · E1
    February 8 · 32 min

    OddsOn Episode01 | Super Bowl LX, Greenland, 2028 Election

    The first episode! OddsOn: let's gamble on anything. Covered today: Greenland, 2028 US Presidential Election, and Super Bowl LX. A special thanks to Andrew Genung for co-hosting . And a huge thank you to Steven H for always keeping me accountable to do this! This one is dedicated to you, sir.

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