Two Quants and a Financial Planner

Excess Returns

Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

Play

Open in

23 episodes
weekly
Avg 48 min
English

Episodes 23

Newest Oldest Longest

All20 Unplayed20 In progress0 Played0

Counted on this page — what you have heard stays on this device, so it is not something the list can be paged by.

Tuesday · 43 min
Bond Panic. Software Pileup. Borrowed AI Earnings. Are Investors Pricing the Wrong Risk?
In this Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down why rising long-term bond yields may be justified by stronger nominal growth, large fiscal deficits and AI-driven capital spending, and why the bigger market risk may be an AI earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble. Featuring Kevin Muir, Dan Rasmussen and Ian Cassel, the episode also explores private equity’s huge software bet, the traits of elite stock pickers, and how the worldview of AI leaders could be driving unusually aggressive capital spending and risk-taking. Topics covered: Why long-term bond yields may be more rational than alarming given stronger nominal GDP, inflation, deficits and heavy Treasury and corporate issuance How global fiscal expansion and the AI infrastructure build-out are adding to bond supply and upward pressure on rates Why suppressing market interest rates can distort an important economic signal and create unintended consequences How private equity became a lagged momentum investor and built massive exposure to software and healthcare technology Why recurring revenue does not make a business bulletproof, and how AI could challenge software economics that once looked untouchable Ian Cassel’s benchmarks for good, great and GOAT stock pickers, from 10-year outperformance to 20% annualized returns The five or six core investing skills elite stock pickers need, and why world-class investors become exceptional at one or two How AI CapEx can boost current supplier earnings while the buyer’s expense is spread over years through depreciation Why an AI earnings bubble could exist even if headline valuation multiples do not look extreme How futurism, expected-value thinking and confidence in AGI may be encouraging AI leaders to take enormous capital spending risks Timestamps: 00:00 Intro: Kevin Muir, Dan Rasmussen and Ian Cassel 05:09 Why suppressing bond yields could create new risks 09:54 Private equity as a lagged momentum investor 14:15 Why investment committees chase three- and five-year returns 19:00 The skills that separate good investors from great ones 23:11 Why elite stock picking takes a decade or more to judge 27:18 How AI CapEx is changing cash flow, buybacks and earnings 31:47 Price bubbles vs earnings bubbles 36:00 Why AI leaders may be taking massive CapEx risk 40:49 AI adoption bottlenecks and the need for skepticism Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
S1 · E153
August 24 · 31 min
Rates Keep Climbing. Stocks Refuse to Break. What If They're Saying the Same Thing?
This week on the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down key investing lessons from recent conversations with Andy Constan, Liz Ann Sonders and Bob Robotti. They examine why rising long-term interest rates can coexist with a strong stock market, how rolling recessions and the shift from labor income to corporate profits are shaping the economy, why AI's biggest beneficiaries may be in energy and old-economy materials, and whether the bond market can really lose control of long-term yields. Topics covered: Why higher long-term interest rates can be consistent with stronger economic growth and rising stock prices How productivity growth, Treasury issuance and corporate bond supply can push real yields higher Why the post-pandemic economy has experienced rolling sector recessions instead of a traditional synchronized business cycle How stock market optimism can coexist with pessimism about unemployment, wages and the broader economy Why labor compensation has fallen as a share of GDP while corporate profits have increased What the labor-versus-capital shift may mean for inflation, investor sentiment and future policy Why the AI capital spending boom creates demand for cement, aluminum, copper, natural gas and other physical inputs How low-cost North American natural gas could support reindustrialization and give the U.S. a structural energy advantage Why renewables and electrification still depend on traditional energy, commodities and industrial materials How decades of underinvestment in energy and materials could create a long-duration capital cycle for value investors Why deep natural demand for Treasuries makes a disorderly loss of control over the long end of the yield curve less likely Timestamps: 02:15 Why rising rates and record-high stocks can coexist07:30 Rolling recessions and why the economy isn't moving in sync11:57 Labor vs. capital and the rise in corporate profit share17:39 Why the biggest AI beneficiaries may be cement, copper and natural gas25:26 Could the bond market really lose control of the long end?30:22 Where to find episode notes, transcripts and more Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
S1 · E152
August 17 · 31 min
Falling Rates. Rising Productivity. Are Good Things Bearish?
In this week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down Jim Paulsen's warning that falling Treasury yields could become bad news for stocks if markets shift from inflation fears to growth fears, and Dom Rizzo's bullish case for AI productivity and frontier models. They also examine whether today's productivity boom is real, how AI coding tools like Claude Code and Codex could reshape white-collar work, and why recessions can create misleading spikes in measured productivity. Topics covered Why falling Treasury yields can be bullish when inflation is cooling but bearish when growth is weakening Jim Paulsen's case that economic surprise data could be pointing toward lower 10-year Treasury yields What the stock-bond correlation says about whether investors are more worried about inflation or recession Dom Rizzo's bullish case for AI-driven coding productivity and the rapid growth of frontier AI models How large the AI coding market could become and where OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI companies may capture value Why open-source and lower-cost AI models could dominate token volume while frontier models capture most of the economics Whether enterprise AI spending is evidence that companies are already seeing meaningful returns The challenge of translating more code and faster knowledge work into measurable revenue, cost savings and economic productivity Jim Paulsen's argument that recessions often create temporary spikes in measured productivity Whether today's productivity gains reflect a genuine AI boom, economic weakness, or some combination of both Timestamps 00:00 Why hearing the AI case you disagree with matters 04:47 When falling Treasury yields could become bad news for stocks 10:54 Dom Rizzo on AI coding productivity and who captures the value 16:49 Can we actually measure the economic payoff from AI? 22:52 Jim Paulsen on why recessions can create false productivity booms 27:00 What today's productivity data may be saying about the economy Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
S1 · E151
August 10 · 32 min
We Reunited David Rosenberg and Rich Bernstein After 20 Years | The Misallocation They Both See
This week on the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down the AI capital spending boom, the risk that data center investment is crowding out housing and other parts of the economy, and what that means for markets. Featuring Richard Bernstein, David Rosenberg, Tian Yang, and Brent Donnelly, the episode covers AI CapEx, GDP growth, inflation, the K-shaped economy, AI ROI, and why rationality and Bayesian thinking matter more than raw intelligence for investors and traders. Topics covered Why the AI and data center boom may be misallocating capital away from housing and infrastructure What the dot-com bubble taught Richard Bernstein about investing where capital is scarce Why AI related spending is approaching half of business CapEx while ex-AI investment is shrinking How today's K-shaped economy differs from the broad economic boom of the late 1990s The difference between AI's contribution to GDP growth and its share of total GDP Tian Yang's Kalecki-Levy framework for understanding spending, savings, income, and economic resilience Why a pullback in hyperscaler CapEx could weaken the spending and income loop Why AI return on investment is so difficult to measure and how the profit pool could broaden beyond hardware Brent Donnelly on why rationality and flexibility matter more than credentials or raw intelligence Why persistent bearishness can become a major investing mistake How Bayesian thinking, position sizing, and changing your mind help investors stay in the game Timestamps 00:02 Rich Bernstein and David Rosenberg reunite and this week's lineup 04:10 The dot-com lesson: what happens when capital floods one sector 08:15 AI CapEx, inflation, and why today's economy is different from the 1990s 13:58 Kalecki-Levy: how spending and savings are keeping growth resilient 18:03 AI CapEx concentration, productivity, and the uncertainty around ROI 22:21 Brent Donnelly on why rationality beats intelligence 26:21 Strong opinions, flexibility, and Bayesian thinking 30:33 What traders and market makers can teach long-term investors Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
S1 · E150
August 3 · 35 min
A War-Sized AI Bet. The Fed Goes Dark. Is One More Hike the Death Shot? | The Weekly Wrap
On this episode of the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler examine how the AI capital spending boom, an unpredictable Federal Reserve, reduced corporate reporting and factor investing are reshaping markets. They break down Ben Hunt's warning about private credit and AI infrastructure, Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig on the loss of Fed forward guidance, Wes Gray on why value may matter more than company size, and Rupert Mitchell on the rate hike that could end the cycle. Topics covered: Why the AI capital spending boom is forcing hyperscalers to borrow money and issue equity How private credit and private equity are financing the AI infrastructure buildout Why a slowdown in AI CapEx could create broader financial system risk How government borrowing and AI investment are crowding out capital and pushing interest rates higher The impact of data center electricity demand on consumers and the broader economy How Kevin Warsh's no-forward-guidance policy changes Federal Reserve expectations Why greater front-end interest rate volatility matters for floating-rate debt and private credit The debate over replacing quarterly corporate reports with six-month reporting Wes Gray's argument that value, not small-company size, is the real source of higher expected returns Rupert Mitchell's death shot framework for how a final central bank rate hike can end a market cycle Timestamps: 00:00 AI spending, Fed uncertainty and this week's market themes 05:07 How the AI buildout crowds out capital across the economy 10:44 No Fed forward guidance and a new era of policy uncertainty 15:48 Why six-month corporate reporting could hurt investors 20:30 Wes Gray on the small-cap premium 24:42 Why value matters more than company size 28:57 How a surprise rate hike could break risk assets 34:05 Global value investing and pairing different investor perspectives Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
S1 · E149
July 26 · 30 min
No ROI Yet. Fewer Recessions. Are You Making More Money? | 4 Things We Learned This Week
This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines when AI spending will translate into measurable end-user ROI, why the U.S. business cycle may now produce fewer recessions, and how Federal Reserve policy could combine lower short-term rates with a smaller balance sheet. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down insights from Andy Constan, Azeem Azhar and Aahan Menon on AI productivity, business-cycle shifts, asset prices and the tradeoffs between Wall Street and Main Street. Topics covered Why subsidized AI tokens may be masking the true economics of end-user ROI The difference between personal productivity gains, cost savings and measurable business profits How the transition from electric light bulbs to assembly lines explains AI process redesign Why adding more copilots cannot turn a legacy company into an AI-native enterprise The productivity J-curve and why promising AI investments may initially look unprofitable How the shift from manufacturing toward services and technology changed the business cycle Why housing and industrial indicators may be less reliable signals for the broader economy How consumer conditions, equity wealth and technology investment increasingly drive growth Why stronger balance sheets and policy intervention may be reducing recession frequency How lower short-term rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet could affect asset prices and inequality Timestamps 00:00 Intro and this week's triple-A lineup 04:00 AI's long-term promise and medium-term transition risk 08:18 Azeem Azhar on electricity as a model for AI adoption 12:28 Why more copilots cannot create an AI-native company 16:39 How services and technology changed the business cycle 21:20 Why policy intervention may be smoothing recessions 26:00 How Fed policy could rebalance Wall Street and Main Street 30:05 Closing thoughts and where to follow Excess Returns Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
S1 · E148
July 20 · 32 min
Strong Jobs. Vanishing Workers. Are You Watching the Wrong Number? | 4 Things We Learned This Week
In this episode of the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down lessons from their conversations with Market Wizards author Jack Schwager and Data 4 the People founder Eric Pachman. They explore why the unemployment rate can hide labor market weakness, how aging and care jobs are reshaping employment, why elite traders survive by following strict risk management rules and whether artificial intelligence can ever solve financial markets. Topics covered: Why the headline unemployment rate can miss a deteriorating labor market How falling labor force participation changes the meaning of jobs data Why prime-age workers leaving the labor force matters for economic growth and consumption The limitations of relying on long-standing BLS and Federal Reserve benchmarks How an anonymous trader turned a small account into roughly half a billion dollars Why trading discipline, stop losses and risk management matter more than being right What the Carvana short squeeze reveals about the danger of breaking your own rules How aging demographics are concentrating job growth in healthcare and social assistance Why home healthcare and elder care workers are essential but often poorly paid Whether AI can generate market alpha or simply raise the baseline quality of investment tools Timestamps: 00:00 Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler become market wizards 04:24 What falling labor force participation hides 08:55 Simon Russo chooses trading over music 13:00 How ignoring stops could wipe out a fortune 17:05 Messi and the rule sets behind elite performance 21:05 Aging America and the rise of low-paid care jobs 25:05 Why financial markets are uniquely difficult for AI 29:07 How AI raises the floor without creating super-investors Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
S1 · E147
July 13 · 32 min
Tech Down 10%. Earnings at Record Highs. Which One Is Lying? | 5 Things We Learned This Week
This week's Weekly Wrap examines whether weakening mega-cap leadership, massive AI capital spending, and record earnings expectations are creating hidden risks beneath the market. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler compare Jim Paulsen's correction case, Katie Stockton's technical analysis, Jeff Klingelhofer's fixed-income view of AI debt, and Matt Zenz's evidence-based analysis of corporate investment. They discuss why semiconductors have replaced the Magnificent Seven as the market's narrowest leadership group, why healthy breadth can coexist with fading momentum, how roughly $600 billion in AI CapEx is influencing U.S. economic growth, and why excellent earnings momentum does not eliminate correction risk. Main topics covered • Jim Paulsen's case for a 10% to 20% correction without a recession or long-term bear market • Why S&P 500 technology was already 10% below its June high • How broader market leadership could outperform mega-cap technology • Katie Stockton on weakening Magnificent Seven momentum and narrow semiconductor leadership • The difference between market breadth, participation, and leadership • How roughly $600 billion of AI CapEx from four companies is supporting economic growth • Why heavy AI-related debt issuance may create attractive opportunities in high-quality bonds • How fixed-income investors evaluate AI spending differently from equity investors • Matt Zenz on asset growth, corporate investment, and the factor evidence around future returns • Why current mega-cap AI spending may not be extreme relative to company size • Why strong earnings momentum and optimistic analyst estimates can still precede market trouble Timestamps 00:00 Four perspectives on technology, AI spending, and market leadership 05:00 Technology is already down 10% and Paulsen's long-term bull case 09:21 Katie Stockton on Magnificent Seven weakness and semiconductor leadership 15:36 Jeff Klingelhofer on $600 billion of AI CapEx and the bond market 20:13 Why high-quality AI debt may offer attractive yields 24:25 Why mega-cap AI spending may not be extreme by factor standards 29:09 Earnings momentum, earnings bubbles, and why strong fundamentals can precede trouble Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.
S1 · E146
July 5 · 39 min
Expensive Market. AI Backlash. Are Investors Pricing the Wrong Risk? | 6 Things We Learned This Week
Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down the biggest investing ideas from the week, including the AI bull market, data center backlash, semiconductor cyclicality, US stock market dominance and long-term market history. The episode features clips from Warren Pies, Meb Faber, Kai Wu and Ritavan on how investors should think about model progress, valuation, bear markets, moats, strategy and global diversification. Main topics covered Why political backlash against AI data centers may become a bigger risk than open source competition How Sam Altman, Dario Amodei and AI lab leaders are shaping the public narrative around artificial intelligence Why model progress, enterprise AI adoption and compute demand remain central to the AI bull market Meb Faber on 250 years of US market history and the power of long-term compounding Why expensive US stock valuations can coexist with long-term optimism about America How bear markets reset speculative excess and why younger investors may benefit from future declines Warren Pies on whether semiconductors are being priced like a less cyclical industry Why peak margins and low valuation multiples can be misleading in cyclical businesses Kai Wu and Ritavan on how AI changes moats, code, proprietary data and corporate strategy The System Gambit framework and why old checklists can fail when the game changes How investors should think about US versus international markets across decades and centuries Why future diversification may depend on where the next great innovation sandbox emerges Timestamps 00:00 Intro and weekly lineup 04:00 AI data centers, politics and the PR problem 09:18 Meb Faber on US market history and bear markets 14:44 Are semiconductors still cyclical? 20:56 Kai Wu on code, AI and changing moats 25:57 Ritavan on the System Gambit and the Ottoman Empire 30:28 Meb Faber on US versus international stocks 36:00 America as an innovation sandbox 38:06 Closing thoughts and where to follow Excess Returns
S1 · E145
June 28 · 35 min
Easy Bubbles. Hard 100 Baggers. Useless AI | 6 Things We Learned This Week
This week’s Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest investing lessons from our conversations with GMO’s Ben Inker and 100 Baggers author Chris Mayer. We discuss how to think about market bubbles, AI capital spending, earnings risk, IPO supply, SpaceX, long-term compounders, and the founder traits that matter for investors. Main topics covered Ben Inker’s framework for easy bubbles versus hard bubbles Why the 2000 tech bubble was easier to navigate than the 2008 financial crisis How expected returns can help investors think about risk and reward Chris Mayer on why labels like AI, software or SpaceX can mislead investors Why investors need to understand what companies actually mean when they say AI The case that today’s market risk may be hiding in earnings rather than valuations How AI data center spending can boost current corporate profits before depreciation hits Why great 100-bagger stocks usually give investors many chances to buy How IPO supply from companies like SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could affect market returns Chris Mayer’s approach to evaluating founders, compensation, incentives and culture Timestamps 00:00 Intro to the Weekly Wrap and the new episode format 02:22 Ben Inker on easy bubbles, hard bubbles and 2000 versus 2008 08:12 Chris Mayer on SpaceX, AI and the danger of letting labels do the thinking 14:13 Ben Inker on earnings bubbles, AI spending and why valuations may look reasonable 19:38 Chris Mayer on 100-baggers and why investors do not need to buy immediately 22:53 Ben Inker on IPO supply, lockups and what new equity issuance can do to returns 28:03 Chris Mayer on evaluating founders, incentives, compensation and trust 34:38 Closing thoughts and the new Excess Returns Clips channel
S1 · E143
June 22 · 34 min
Expensive Market. Record Issuance. Can the Story Still Hold It Up? | 6 Things We Learned This Week
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest investing lessons from Aswath Damodaran, Andy Constan and Tobias Carlisle. We discuss SpaceX valuation, AI capital spending, IPO mechanics, market overvaluation, the shift from buybacks to issuance, and whether value, small caps and equal weight stocks are starting to reverse years of mega-cap dominance. Topics covered: Why Aswath Damodaran says valuation requires both stories and numbers How investors can evaluate SpaceX without relying only on total addressable market Why IPOs are designed to trade well after issuance How a small public float can influence the perceived value of an entire company Why expensive market valuations do not automatically mean investors should sell everything What history suggests about forward returns when market valuations are extreme Why AI is changing the capital intensity of the Magnificent 7 The underrated role of restraint in business strategy and AI spending How the market is shifting from buybacks to stock issuance Why value, small caps and equal weight stocks may be showing early signs of a reversal Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and this week’s episodes with Aswath Damodaran, Andy Constan and Tobias Carlisle 04:17 What the SpaceX story needs to justify the valuation 08:56 Why IPO issuers may want the stock to trade up 13:20 Why mean reversion looks harder to trust in today’s market 17:28 How AI CapEx changes the Mag 7 valuation equation 22:21 Why buybacks and issuance matter for stock market supply 27:28 Are value, small caps and equal weight stocks starting to reverse? 31:53 Why market broadening can continue if recession is avoided
S1 · E142
June 15 · 35 min
When the Fire Hose Meets the Megatrend | The Weekly Wrap
In this episode of the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down two major conversations with Mike Green and Vanguard's Joe Davis. The discussion connects passive investing flows, mega-cap concentration, AI-driven productivity, fiscal deficits, demographics, and the possibility that markets are being reshaped by forces most investors do not fully understand. Topics covered: * Why passive investing can act like a fire hose into the largest stocks * How market-cap weighting can amplify flows into mega-cap, high-volatility companies * The connection between passive flows, factor investing, size, beta, and volatility * Why Mike Green sees passive flow dynamics changing market behavior * How buy-the-dip behavior, ETF flows, CTAs, and volatility control funds can reinforce rallies * Vanguard's megatrends framework for technology, demographics, deficits, and globalization * Why long-term structural trends can affect short-term growth, inflation, and markets * Joe Davis's case that AI could be more transformative than the personal computer * The risk that AI only automates work rather than augmenting workers and creating new industries * Why disappointing AI adoption could bring fiscal deficits, inflation pressure, and higher Treasury yields back into focus Timestamps: 00:00 Passive flows, AI, and the biggest forces shaping markets 03:38 Mike Green on passive investing as a market liquidity fire hose 08:26 The passive flow premium and why large-cap stocks keep winning 12:00 Joe Davis on technology, demographics, deficits, and globalization 16:20 Mike Green on whether passive flows can reverse 20:46 Buy-the-dip behavior, ETF inflows, and market volatility 21:25 Joe Davis on AI, deficits, and the future of U.S. growth 25:04 The 20% probability of a 9% 10-year Treasury yield 29:00 Why AI could be more powerful than the personal computer 34:10 Final thoughts on Mike Green, Joe Davis, and the Excess Returns network
S1 · E141
June 8 · 35 min
The $1.75T IPO No One Can Price | 6 Things That Surprised Us This Week
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap looks at the market stories that surprised us most, including the potential SpaceX IPO, extreme valuations, market structure, AI disruption, value investing, tech leadership and oil prices. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips from Cameron Dawson, Kai Wu, Jim Paulsen and Dave Nadig on what investors should understand about valuation, index flows, disruption and market leadership. Topics Covered: Why the SpaceX IPO could test how investors think about growth, valuation and market structure Cameron Dawson on what 80 to 100 times sales implies for a company as large as SpaceX The Palantir comparison and why great growth can still get priced in too early Kai Wu on why traditional value investing struggles in industries exposed to technological disruption How value investing has performed differently in exposed versus insulated sectors Jim Paulsen on the shift from Magnificent Seven leadership to small cap tech and unprofitable tech stocks Dave Nadig on why SpaceX’s small free float and index inclusion mechanics could distort price discovery Why forced index buying, options trading and pre-positioning could make the first 30 days of SpaceX trading chaotic Kai Wu on AI disruption, software stocks and why dispersion creates both opportunity and risk Jim Paulsen on why the biggest stock market pressure from oil spikes may come after oil prices peak Timestamps: 00:54 What surprised us most this week 05:27 What 100x sales means for SpaceX investors 10:52 Why value investing still works outside disrupted industries 15:45 Why risky market leadership can continue longer than investors expect 20:53 Why SpaceX’s low free float matters for index funds 25:23 AI disruption and the opportunity in software dispersion 29:23 How dispersion creates winners and destroys funds 33:46 Why oil peaks can pressure the economy with a lag
S1 · E139
May 31 · 1 hr 2 min
They Lose on Purpose — And Still Come Out Ahead | The Weekly Wrap - 5/31/2026
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the best investing insights from Adam Parker, Robert Hagstrom, and Eric Crittenden. We discuss why the market may still be trading on fundamentals, why valuation alone can fail as a stock-picking tool, how modern portfolio theory changed investing, what business-driven investors can learn from Warren Buffett, and why trend following may work by providing liquidity to hedgers. Topics covered: Why the stock market may be looking through today’s headlines to future earnings and AI-driven fundamentals Adam Parker’s argument that valuation does not work well as a standalone stock-picking signal Why estimate revisions, earnings beats, and gross margin changes may matter more than cheap P/E ratios Robert Hagstrom on Harry Markowitz, Benjamin Graham, and the debate over whether volatility is the same thing as risk How modern portfolio theory shaped active management, index funds, and the way investors think about diversification Warren Buffett’s casino and cathedral metaphor for separating stock prices from business ownership Eric Crittenden on why hedgers may willingly lose money on trades to reduce business risk and lower cost of capital Why trend following may earn a risk premium by providing liquidity to hedgers in their moment of need How systematic investors should think about tinkering with models during drawdowns Robert Hagstrom’s story about Bill Ruane and the importance of finding the right clients and investors Timestamps: 00:00 Risk, valuation, and hedging in this week’s best clips 04:06 Adam Parker on why the market may still be trading on fundamentals 08:49 Why cheap stocks are often cheap for a reason 14:37 Robert Hagstrom on Harry Markowitz and the birth of modern portfolio theory 18:50 How portfolio theory became the institutional language of investing 22:27 Eric Crittenden on hedgers, cost of capital, and who is on the other side of the trade 27:51 Adam Parker on why firm-wide market outlooks are so hard to get right 33:53 Robert Hagstrom on Buffett’s casino and cathedral metaphor 39:16 Why gross margin change may be one of the most important stock-picking signals 44:56 Eric Crittenden and Jason Buck on tinkering with systematic strategies 49:00 Why trend following may work over the long term 53:09 Robert Hagstrom on meeting Bill Ruane and learning which clients to avoid 58:38 Why firing the wrong clients can strengthen an investment business
S1 · E138
May 25 · 1 hr 6 min
He Studied 100 Years of Bubbles. He Exposed Private Equity's Volatility Illusion | The Weekly Wrap
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest investing lessons from our conversations with Cliff Asness, Andy Constan, Gene Munster, Doug Clinton, and Ben Carlson. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler discuss volatility, bubble regimes, AI infrastructure, private equity risk, investor behavior, and why doing nothing is often harder than it looks. Main topics covered: Cliff Asness on why volatility is not a perfect risk measure, but still matters for real investors The limits of defining risk only as permanent loss of capital Andy Constan on why bubbles can feel low risk because they trend with low volatility How leverage, confidence, and investor behavior can inflate bubble regimes Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on AI, electricity, data centers, hyperscaler CapEx, and energy demand Why AI infrastructure constraints may affect whether the AI boom becomes a classic bubble Ben Carlson on Shark Week, vivid risks, and why investors often fear the wrong things Cliff Asness on private equity, volatility laundering, and the illusion of smooth returns Andy Constan on what active investors should do in bubble regimes and why mean reversion can fail Doug Clinton and Gene Munster on AI job disruption, knowledge workers, and how to adapt Ben Carlson on action bias, penalty kicks, and why doing nothing can be the hardest investing decision Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and the week’s biggest investing clips 03:37 Cliff Asness on volatility, risk, and permanent loss of capital 10:16 Andy Constan on why low volatility can make bubbles more dangerous 20:41 Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on turning electricity into intelligence 25:11 Why AI power constraints may change the bubble debate 30:39 Ben Carlson on Shark Week, vivid risks, and investor attention 35:44 Cliff Asness on private equity and volatility laundering 43:42 Andy Constan on alpha, sizing down, and trading in bubbles 50:06 Doug Clinton and Gene Munster on AI, jobs, and knowledge workers 57:55 AI blind spots, token subsidies, and old tech investing frameworks 59:58 Ben Carlson on penalty kicks, action bias, and doing nothing 01:04:45 Quant lessons in sports, the Knicks, and closing thoughts
S1 · E137
May 17 · 1 hr 8 min
He Invested Through Five Bubbles. He Wrote the Book on Them | The Weekly Wrap - 5/17/2026
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together highlights from our interviews with Jeremy Grantham, Andy Constan, Edward Chancellor and Marc Rubinstein to examine AI, bubbles, private credit, market structure and the lessons of past capital cycles. We look at whether AI is creating a new investment bubble, why technological revolutions often disappoint investors even when the technology succeeds, and how private credit, financials, monopolies and market leadership fit into today’s confusing market environment. Main topics covered: • Jeremy Grantham on mean reversion, monopoly power and why the Mag 7 may have avoided normal competitive pressure • Andy Constan’s framework for bubbles, including the “something new,” escalation event and peaking phase • Edward Chancellor on AI capex, overstated demand and why boom-time profits can reverse when investment is misallocated • Marc Rubinstein on private credit, redemption gates, retail investors and why the risks may be real without being systemic • Grantham’s argument that AI may become a cost of doing business rather than a permanent boost to aggregate profits • Lessons from Long-Term Capital Management and how policy responses can add fuel to a bubble • What railway mania, canals and past technology booms can teach investors about winners, losers and overbuilding • Rubinstein’s case for European financials and why growth can be dangerous in financial services • Grantham’s bubble detector and the signal that has appeared near the tops of 1929, the Nifty Fifty, 2000 and 2021 • Why investors need humility when navigating bubble regimes, AI enthusiasm, private credit and market concentration Timestamps: 00:00 Jeremy Grantham, Andy Constan and Edward Chancellor on AI, bubbles and capex 01:14 Why this week’s conversations connect across AI, bubbles and market structure 04:31 Jeremy Grantham on monopoly power, mean reversion and the Mag 7 11:24 Andy Constan’s three-stage framework for market bubbles 20:12 Edward Chancellor on AI capex, overstated demand and reported profits 30:28 Marc Rubinstein on private credit gates and the limits of systemic risk 37:50 Jeremy Grantham on why AI may become a cost of doing business 42:55 How Long-Term Capital Management helped fuel the late 1990s bubble 50:02 What railways, canals and overbuilding teach us about technology booms 55:58 Marc Rubinstein on European financials, innovation and US market confusion 1:00:38 Jeremy Grantham’s bubble detector and the warning from market leaders 1:05:59 Closing thoughts on bubble signals, investor humility and Excess Returns resources
S1 · E136
May 11 · 1 hr 6 min
The S&P 500 is Just 46 Stocks. 89% of the Economy is Flatlining | What We Learned This Week
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap looks at what Ian Cassel, Chris Mayer, Jim Paulsen and Elena Khoziaeva can teach investors about stock picking skill, inflation risk, AI, software moats, small caps and market concentration. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on why elite investors can be wrong almost half the time, why today may not be the 1970s or the 1990s, how AI is affecting software businesses, and why the S&P 500 may be far less diversified than investors think. Topics Covered Why great stock pickers can be right only 49% of the time and still generate exceptional returns The role of outliers, magnitude and position sizing in long-term investing success Jim Paulsen’s argument that today’s inflation backdrop is very different from the 1970s How supply shocks, tariffs, commodities and labor force growth shape the inflation outlook Bridgeway’s research on redefining the small-cap premium by excluding IPOs and fallen large caps Why vertical market software may be more resilient to AI disruption than horizontal software How the AI boom and new era economy are masking weakness in the rest of the economy Why the S&P 500 may effectively be driven by fewer than 50 stocks despite having 500 names What management meetings can and cannot add to a stock picker’s process Why patience, conviction and independent business verification may be enduring investing edges Timestamps 00:00 Intro and episode preview 05:30 Why outliers drive stock picking returns 09:58 Why today’s inflation may not be the 1970s 17:27 Rethinking the small-cap premium 24:11 AI disruption and vertical market software 32:04 The AI boom versus the rest of the economy 37:04 Why the S&P 500 acts like 46 stocks 46:09 What investors can learn from management teams 53:32 Why today’s tech boom is not the 1990s 58:34 Patience, conviction and the last investing edge 01:05:32 Closing thoughts and Excess Returns Substack
S1 · E135
May 3 · 1 hr 9 min
Outperformed by Mom | The Weekly Wrap – 5/2/2026
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines what Chris Davis and Rich Bernstein can teach investors about letting winners run, inflation risk, market concentration, dividends, AI, and the difference between economic stories and investment returns. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on portfolio concentration, the 1960s vs. the 1970s, investor complacency, the Fed’s inflation target, durable businesses, and where the next market opportunity may be hiding. Topics Covered Why letting winners run can be so powerful, but so hard for professional investors Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling great companies The tradeoff between concentration, diversification and real-world portfolio risk Why Rich Bernstein thinks today may look more like the 1960s than the 1970s How oil prices affect consumer behavior when measured against wages Chris Davis on why perceived risk can be very different from actual risk What cars, insurance and investor behavior reveal about market complacency Why the Fed’s 2% inflation target may not reflect the world investors are living in The relationship between valuation, durability and software stocks Why higher inflation could increase demand for dividends and near-term cash flow Chris Davis on why exceptional people and management teams matter in investing Why AI may be a great economic story but not necessarily a great investment story Timestamps 00:00 Letting winners run, 1960s inflation and investor risk perception 02:18 Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling 08:32 Reinvestment risk and the limits of active management 12:45 Why oil shocks may matter less when gasoline is low relative to wages 20:25 Chris Davis on why feeling safe can make investors take more risk 29:20 Rich Bernstein on whether the Fed’s 2% inflation target is outdated 34:08 Chris Davis on durability, valuation and software stocks 39:39 Why cash flow gives durable companies room to adapt 43:16 Rich Bernstein on dividends, inflation and the need for cash today 51:55 Chris Davis on why people matter more than investors think 56:07 The risk and value of investing with exceptional leaders 1:01:30 Rich Bernstein on AI as an economic story vs. an investment story 1:05:13 Why AI productivity may not translate into obvious stock market winners
S1 · E134
April 26 · 1 hr 12 min
We Asked David Rosenberg, Chris Bloomstran and Cameron Dawson What This Market Is Getting Wrong
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap explores one of the most important questions in markets today: what’s really driving this rally, and how fragile is it beneath the surface. We break down the growing concentration in earnings, the role of passive flows, and why multiple top investors see structural risks building even as markets continue to rise. We highlight key insights from David Rosenberg, Chris Bloomstran, Cameron Dawson, Dave Nadig, and Travis Prentice on market concentration, the macro link between asset prices and the economy, and how investors should think about risk, valuations, and positioning in an environment increasingly driven by flows rather than fundamentals. Topics Covered Why two companies are driving a disproportionate share of earnings growth and what that means for the broader market The growing link between stock prices, consumer spending, and the overall economy How passive investing is changing market structure and risk measurement The difference between tracking error risk and real risk for long-term investors Why valuations matter for long-term returns but not short-term timing Lessons from past technology booms and whether AI is repeating history The role of capital intensity and margin pressure in today’s largest companies Why disruption eventually impacts even the best businesses How professional investors adjust portfolios in expensive markets Why understanding probabilities and multiple scenarios is critical for investing Timestamps 00:00 Intro 04:45 David Rosenberg on the “perma bear” label and managing tail risk 09:18 Chris Bloomstran on disruption and why no company compounds forever 15:40 Why the economy is increasingly tied to the stock market 20:28 The savings rate, consumer spending, and hidden economic risks 26:00 Passive investing, flows, and how market structure has changed 31:32 Tracking error vs real risk and investor behavior 37:28 David Rosenberg on probabilities and having a plan B 42:26 How investors manage portfolios in expensive markets 43:38 Two companies driving 50% of earnings growth 49:00 Concentration vs broadening in the market 55:25 Valuations, bubbles, and expected returns 01:01:00 Why valuations are not a short-term timing tool 01:07:00 AI investment, overcapacity, and lessons from past tech cycles 01:12:30 Bull vs bear case for AI-driven growth 01:18:00 Final thoughts on market structure, flows, and long-term risks
S1 · E133
April 19 · 1 hr 5 min
We Asked Liz Ann Sonders, Jim Grant, and Brent Donnelly What Investors Miss About This Market
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together insights from Jim Grant, Liz Ann Sonders, and Brent Donnelly to break down the biggest forces driving markets right now, including war-driven inflation, oil shocks, market resilience, and the evolving role of sentiment and policy reactions. The conversation connects macro history with real-time market behavior to help investors understand what actually matters beneath the headlines. Topics Covered: Why war has historically been one of the most consistent drivers of inflation How oil shocks impact both inflation and economic growth simultaneously The nuance behind the “US as a net energy exporter” narrative Why markets require a steady stream of bad news to sustain a decline How policy reaction functions (Fed, government) shape market outcomes The difference between structural trends and short-term shocks in trading Why “buy the dip” has worked—and the risks if it stops working The role of retail traders and short-term flows in modern market dynamics Contribution vs. price performance in the Mag 7 and S&P 500 How sentiment has evolved across different investor cohorts and timeframes Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and overview of this week’s guests 01:03 Jim Grant on why war is inherently inflationary 05:16 Historical context for inflation and wartime dynamics 10:40 Liz Ann Sonders on oil shocks and stock market reactions 13:11 Demand destruction and the “cure for high prices” 15:57 Brent Donnelly on shocks, positioning, and mean reversion 18:33 Policy reaction functions and market reflexivity 21:44 Jim Grant on bubbles, technology, and the air conditioning analogy 27:04 Liz Ann Sonders on buy-the-dip behavior and retail traders 32:37 Why markets need sustained bad news to decline 38:24 Jim Grant on trust as the foundation of credit markets 41:47 Liz Ann on Mag 7 growth vs. the rest of the market 46:02 Contribution vs. performance in index construction 48:01 Jim Grant on inflation, oil shocks, and policy mistakes 52:38 Inflation as a continuous process and purchasing power loss 57:09 Liz Ann on Marty Zweig, sentiment, and modern market structure 01:02:35 Final thoughts on sentiment, behavior, and market complexity

Showing 1–20 of 23 episodes