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Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade.
Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success.
No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance.
If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge.
Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience.
🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com

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August 1 · 1 hr 59 min
SI411: Why the Best Portfolios Are Built to Be Wrong ft. David Dredge & Richard Brennan
The future isn’t hidden. It hasn’t been written yet. That idea anchors this foundational conversation between Dave Dredge, Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, on what risk really means in markets. They challenge the mathematics behind modern portfolio construction, exposing how calm conditions can conceal leverage, how diversification can fail when it matters most, and why familiar measures such as volatility and Sharpe ratios often miss the forces that lead to permanent loss. From path dependency and complex adaptive systems to trend following, convexity and the geometry of wealth, this episode offers a different framework for investing under uncertainty. For anyone responsible for preserving and compounding capital, this is essential listening. Because the strongest portfolio is not the one built around being right, but the one prepared to survive being wrong. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Follow David on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Market review, July performance and introducing Dave Dredge 08:01 - Why markets are complex adaptive systems 18:49 - Price insensitive investors and the hidden drivers of markets 26:03 - How market participants create fat tails and volatility 31:38 - Where major market moves really come from 39:05 - Ergodicity and why sequence matters in investing 46:37 - The forest fire analogy for understanding financial risk 51:15 - Why calm markets often hide the greatest dangers 56:13 - Leverage, convexity and the source of market fragility 01:00:53 - Why optimal portfolio construction can increase risk 01:05:38 - Football, convexity and building resilient portfolios 01:13:03 - Why the Sharpe ratio fails to measure real risk 01:21:40 - Lessons for trend followers navigating complex markets Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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July 29 · 1 hr 1 min
IL51: Why Most Recessions Are Completely Misunderstood ft. Tyler Goodspeed
Why do recessions happen? Tyler Goodspeed joins Kevin Coldiron to challenge some of the most deeply held beliefs in economics. Drawing on more than three centuries of data from the United States and the United Kingdom, he argues that recessions are rarely the inevitable consequence of excess or financial imbalances. Instead, they are often triggered by unexpected external shocks that are difficult to predict. The conversation explores why expansions do not simply die of old age, why recessions fail to cleanse the economy, and what policymakers and investors should focus on instead when preparing for an uncertain future. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Tyler on LinkedIn and Read his Book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why recessions are often caused by unexpected shocks 00:54 - Tyler Goodspeed's research into four centuries of economic history 06:05 - Why economic expansions do not die of old age 13:48 - Debunking the boom and bust theory of recessions 18:13 - Does monetary policy matter as much as we think 21:57 - Financial crises, credit growth and what the data really shows 27:11 - Why energy supply shocks have shaped economic history 30:58 - Why the UK and US have experienced different recessions 35:31 - Government intervention and whether it reduces recessions 39:09 - Do recessions actually make economies stronger 44:16 - Why the UK never returned to its pre 2008 growth trend 47:51 - Financial repression, government debt and the lessons of 2008 51:32 - Randomness, resilience and preparing for economic shocks 56:20 - Rare earths, energy security and the next potential recession trigger Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
July 25 · 1 hr 10 min
SI410: The Next Evolution of Trend Following ft. Nick Baltas
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Nick Baltas explore how artificial intelligence, thematic investing and narrative momentum are beginning to reshape systematic investing. Alongside a review of recent CTA performance, they discuss new research on expanding trend following universes, defensive portfolio construction and portable alpha before taking a deep dive into the growing role of AI and thematic risk models. The conversation examines whether future investment signals may come from more than price alone and how systematic investors can combine traditional trend following with new sources of information without losing the discipline that has defined the strategy for decades. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - AI, memories and the changing pace of innovation 06:32 - How investment firms are integrating artificial intelligence 13:01 - CTA performance and the trend following environment 20:34 - Expanding the market universe for trend followers 28:17 - Building the perfect hedge with trend following 34:25 - Portable alpha and leveraging trend strategies 37:44 - Introducing thematic investing and missing factors 44:59 - How narratives create momentum in financial markets 50:43 - Measuring thematic strength versus price momentum 58:41 - Can thematic investing be backtested? 01:04:14 - Are narratives really different from traditional sectors? 01:07:06 - Final thoughts on AI, research and the future of systematic investing Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
July 22 · 46 min
OI23: Why Capital Efficiency Is the Next Edge in Investing ft. Charlie McGarraugh
Charlie McGarraugh joins Moritz Seibert to discuss how systematic investing is evolving beyond traditional trend following. Drawing on experience from Goldman Sachs, crypto and machine learning, Charlie explains why adaptive portfolios, capital efficiency and smarter position sizing may become the defining advantages for the next generation of macro investors. They explore the rise of managed futures ETFs, China's growing futures markets, the trade off between diversification and simplicity, and why portfolio construction often matters more than finding the next predictive signal. It is a thoughtful conversation about where systematic investing may be heading next. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why position sizing may matter more than return prediction 01:03 - Charlie McGarra's journey from Goldman Sachs to Altis Partners 09:03 - The history of Altis Partners and its evolution beyond trend following 11:19 - Building a multi factor macro strategy around trend 16:02 - Why adaptive investing is becoming increasingly important 21:49 - The growth of managed futures ETFs and reaching new investors 25:27 - Designing ETFs for diversification and capital efficiency 30:30 - Why Chinese commodity futures offer unique opportunities 40:41 - New ideas around leverage and capital efficiency 42:37 - Kelly sizing, drawdowns and maximizing long term returns Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
July 18 · 1 hr 8 min
SI409: Why Trend Following Is Changing Faster Than Ever ft. Yoav Git
Markets are evolving in ways that few investors fully appreciate. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore how changing market structure, the rise of retail options trading and new financial products are reshaping trend following. They discuss why short term strategies have become more challenging, whether single stock futures could open new opportunities, and what recent research reveals about narratives, thematic investing and diversification. Along the way they examine commodities, equity markets and the practical realities of systematic investing, offering a thoughtful perspective on how trend followers continue to adapt as markets become increasingly complex. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Yoav on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - England, the World Cup final and new futures market innovations 06:30 - Bruno Mars, hedge fund blow up risk and AI investment concerns 12:40 - July trend following performance and market positioning 18:31 - Front month futures, commodity curves and trend following signals 25:03 - CFM's Seven Degrees of Market Structure 36:49 - Why single stock futures and options are changing equity markets 39:56 - The decline of short term trend following explained 47:50 - Thematic investing and where equity risk really comes from 55:06 - Narrative momentum and how news drives market behaviour 01:02:45 - Building a diversified equity trend strategy 01:05:04 - Final thoughts on the future of systematic investing Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
July 15 · 1 hr 15 min
GM105: The Billion-Barrel Shock Has Not Arrived Yet ft. Adam Rozencwajg
More than a billion barrels of expected oil supply have been removed from the market. Yet prices suggest the danger has passed. Adam Rozencwajg joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explain why that conclusion may be dangerously premature. The missing barrels have not disappeared from the equation. Their impact is still moving through tankers, refineries and inventories, hidden by reporting delays and China’s strategic response. From the limits of petroleum reserves to falling stockpiles, gold’s correction and the energy required to power AI, this episode examines a market caught between what prices are saying and what the physical system may soon reveal. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why commodity super cycles are driven by capital investment, not geopolitics 09:30 - The impact of Middle East supply disruptions on global oil markets 15:38 - Oil inventories, strategic reserves and why the data may be misleading 21:57 - China's energy strategy and its growing influence on global markets 31:23 - Why energy markets have not reacted as many investors expected 37:13 - China's long term energy transition and global demand implications 43:59 - Why oil prices have fallen despite tightening fundamentals 48:12 - The outlook for oil markets over the coming months 58:25 - Gold, investor positioning and what could trigger the next rally 01:02:59 - Strategic government investment and the future of critical commodities 01:09:22 - Why energy remains the biggest opportunity in the AI boom 01:11:53 - Final thoughts on where commodity markets go from here Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
July 11 · 1 hr 3 min
SI408: Has Trend Following Changed Forever? ft. Alan Dunne
Markets continue to evolve, and so do the strategies designed to navigate them. Alan Dunne joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore why changes in market structure may have permanently altered short term trend following, and what that means for systematic investors. They discuss a fascinating new research paper on market microstructure, the changing role of liquidity, the rise of high frequency trading and why faster no longer necessarily means better. Along the way they examine the Federal Reserve's evolving communication strategy, the outlook for commodities, and why regime change continues to create both risks and opportunities for trend followers. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Summer reading, Jeremy Grantham and lessons from early quantitative investing 05:22 - Shrinking retail products, smaller futures contracts and the rise of retail trading 12:18 - First half performance review for CTAs and trend followers 15:36 - Commodity markets, Middle East tensions and the AI driven demand story 20:09 - Kevin Warsh, Fed communication and a new era for monetary policy 30:34 - Why regime change strengthens the case for trend following 38:34 - The research behind the decline of short term trend following 46:44 - Tick size, liquidity and what changed in market microstructure 49:43 - Alternative explanations for why fast trend has struggled 55:35 - Execution, market participants and the future of systematic trading 01:00:45 - Final thoughts on the next evolution of trend following Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
July 8 · 55 min
GM104: How the Dollar Quietly Took Over the World ft. Brendan Greeley
The US dollar has become so familiar that most investors rarely stop to ask how it became the world's dominant currency or why that dominance has endured. Brendan Greeley joins Alan Dunne to trace the dollar's remarkable journey from a silver coin in sixteenth century Europe to the foundation of modern global finance. Along the way they explore the hidden mechanics of money creation, the evolution of offshore dollars, the Federal Reserve's expanding role, and why the institutions supporting the dollar may matter far more than politics. It is a conversation that challenges many of the assumptions investors hold about money, banking and monetary policy. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Brendan on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why the Fed's balance sheet deserves far more scrutiny 00:57 - Brendan Greeley's journey from journalism to monetary history 06:36 - How studying financial history changed his view of economics 11:38 - The hidden difference between big money and small money 17:43 - How the dollar existed before the United States 26:40 - Why the dollar became the world's reserve currency 29:36 - The birth of the Eurodollar market and offshore money creation 34:53 - What really supports the dollar's global dominance 40:09 - Could global finance split into competing currency blocs 44:21 - Has the Federal Reserve become too powerful 50:01 - Why QE, the Fed's balance sheet and future reforms matter 52:53 - Brendan Greeley's essential book recommendation Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
July 4 · 1 hr 1 min
SI407: Why America Is Rewriting the Rules of Capitalism ft. Cem Karsan
Markets may be entering one of the most important regime shifts in decades. Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to argue that the United States is moving away from traditional free market capitalism towards a far more strategic model where government, markets and technology become increasingly intertwined. They discuss why positioning continues to dominate market behaviour, the growing role of sovereign investment, the future of AI driven capital spending, and why the next major turning point may arrive after the US midterm elections. It is a conversation that challenges conventional market thinking and explores how politics, policy and capital are becoming inseparable. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - America at 250 and why major turning points often arrive after two and a half centuries 03:43 - Why positioning matters more than headlines in today's markets 07:53 - Soft US jobs data and the disconnect between markets and the economy 09:15 - June performance review for trend followers and CTAs 15:14 - Why America may be adopting a more strategic form of capitalism 19:14 - The case for a US sovereign wealth fund and reshaping the financial system 30:31 - Why the US dollar remains America's greatest strategic advantage 37:52 - AI investment, capital spending and why this cycle may be different 45:46 - Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the changing relationship between the Fed and Treasury 50:03 - The Summer of George and why market positioning dominates the summer months 52:22 - Why the US midterm elections could become the next major market catalyst 57:59 - Looking ahead to the second half of 2026 Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
July 1 · 1 hr 19 min
GM103: Why Optimism Could Be the Most Contrarian Trade ft. Pippa Malmgren
While much of the world is focused on geopolitical conflict, inflation and rising global tensions, Pippa Malmgren argues that a very different future may already be taking shape. Joining Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan, she explores how artificial intelligence, advanced energy, shifting diplomacy and technological innovation could reshape the global economy and even reduce the risk of war. From the future of the US dollar and China to nuclear energy, robotics and non human intelligence, this conversation challenges conventional thinking and offers an unusually optimistic perspective on one of the most consequential periods in modern history. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Pippa on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why Pippa believes the future is far more optimistic than most expect 01:05 - Reuniting after four years and revisiting major geopolitical themes 03:11 - Digital finance, transparency and the changing role of the US Treasury 06:40 - Ukraine, foreign policy and the debate over hidden funding networks 12:01 - Why Pippa believes the world is moving toward a superpower rapprochement 22:17 - The US dollar, China and competing visions of global leadership 30:49 - Lessons from history, diplomacy and the search for lasting peace 39:38 - Nuclear energy, AI and the race toward technological abundance 45:48 - Populism, inequality and whether AI will widen or close the wealth gap 55:32 - How societies can prepare for an AI driven future 58:10 - Greenland, the Arctic and the strategic battle for space infrastructure 01:04:20 - Pippa's father, diplomacy and the lessons that shaped her worldview 01:09:28 - Non human intelligence, AI and the profound questions facing humanity Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
June 27 · 1 hr 8 min
SI406: Why Uncertainty Is a Trend Follower’s Best Friend ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Markets rarely move in straight lines, but periods of uncertainty often create the biggest opportunities for systematic investors. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine why geopolitical shocks, changing Federal Reserve leadership and shifting market regimes continue to shape trend following performance. They explore why only a handful of markets often drive returns, how diversification really works when correlations suddenly rise, and why managed futures have historically stood apart during periods of elevated volatility. Along the way, they discuss the future of monetary policy, economic data, AI driven productivity and what investors should watch as the second half of the year unfolds. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Boston's World Cup beer shortage and remembering Alan Greenspan 05:14 - Greenspan's legacy, interest rates and lessons from 1994 10:45 - Trend following performance and the markets driving returns 14:14 - Why diversification matters and how many markets are enough 20:47 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year 23:10 - What defines a market regime change 27:49 - The new Fed Chair and five major policy priorities 39:12 - Why monetary policy changes matter for trend followers 48:28 - Research into hedge fund strategies and risk regimes 56:06 - Why managed futures stand out during periods of market stress 01:02:30 - Portfolio construction and the role of managed futures in uncertain markets Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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June 24 · 1 hr 1 min
IL50: Why Central Banks Are Losing Control of Inflation ft. Manoj Pradhan
Manoj Pradhan returns to Top Traders Unplugged to explain why the forces that kept inflation and interest rates low for decades are now reversing. Drawing on themes from The Great Demographic Reversal and his new book The Unanchored Central Banker, he argues that aging populations, labor shortages, rising fiscal deficits, and the changing role of central banks are creating a very different macroeconomic landscape. The conversation explores why demographics matter more than many models assume, whether AI can offset labor shortages, and why central banks may increasingly be forced to choose between controlling inflation and maintaining fiscal stability. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Manoj on LinkedIn and Read his Book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why demographics matter for inflation and central banks 03:05 - The demographic sweet spot that lowered inflation and rates 06:28 - Why labor supply is now reversing 12:15 - Global birth rates and the replacement rate problem 17:03 - The fiscal blind spot in conventional economic models 20:31 - Housing, urbanization, and real interest rates 27:03 - Can AI offset labor shortages? 37:24 - Policy ideas to increase labor supply and manage aging 45:40 - Why central banks may become “unanchored” 50:40 - The tension between inflation control and debt stability 54:49 - Could high rates trigger a crisis and force policy reversal? 58:28 - Final thoughts on demographics, debt, and the future of inflation Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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June 20 · 1 hr 12 min
SI405: Why Most Trend Following Improvements Should Fail ft. Rob Carver
Trend following investors are constantly searching for ways to improve performance, but not every improvement survives contact with reality. Rob Carver joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore whether investors should chase the strongest trends, how different asset classes contribute to returns across market cycles, and why overfitting remains one of the biggest dangers in systematic investing. They also discuss the rise of AI generated trading strategies, the debate around perpetual futures, the changing role of economic data, and what diversification really means when markets become driven by a handful of dominant forces. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and summer optimism in the UK 02:10 - Middle East developments, SpaceX and the new Fed Chair 06:13 - Concerns about economic data and market transparency 10:38 - Trend following performance and current market positioning 14:39 - How Rob evaluates strategies and portfolio construction 19:57 - The factor zoo and true sources of return 22:37 - What trend following adds beyond traditional risk premia 29:54 - The rise of perpetual futures and exchange concerns 42:35 - Quantica research on trend performance across asset classes 55:01 - Why commodities have become a dominant source of trend returns 56:06 - AI generated trading strategies and the risk of overfitting 01:05:48 - Drawdowns, diversification and lessons from recent research Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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June 17 · 1 hr 23 min
GM102: China Built a Trap. Germany Set It. America Fell In. Europe Is Next ft. Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis joins Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation on trade imbalances, globalization and the future of the world economy. Drawing on decades of research into China, Europe and financial history, Pettis argues that persistent trade surpluses are ultimately rooted in domestic income imbalances rather than national competitiveness. The discussion explores why China struggles to rebalance, why Europe may face its biggest challenge yet, and how US reindustrialization could reshape global trade. From Bretton Woods to modern tariffs, this episode offers a provocative framework for understanding the forces driving the next phase of the global economy. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Michael on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Michael Pettis warns that the real trade reckoning may still lie ahead 01:07 - Introduction to Michael Pettis and his background in finance and economics 06:34 - Why trade imbalances are ultimately driven by income imbalances 09:59 - Germany’s Hartz reforms and the roots of European imbalances 17:22 - Competitiveness versus productivity and the hidden costs of wage suppression 27:48 - China’s growth model and why rebalancing has proved so difficult 35:54 - Who will absorb China’s trade surplus if the US closes its deficit? 40:24 - Can the United States successfully reindustrialize? 45:31 - Why Europe may eventually turn toward protectionism 52:17 - The US deficit, global capital flows and the burden of dollar dominance 01:01:50 - Why the renminbi is unlikely to replace the dollar 01:10:45 - Historical trade imbalances and how painful adjustments unfold 01:16:21 - What Japan’s experience reveals about China’s future 01:21:02 - Final reflections on debt, globalization and economic adjustment Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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June 13 · 1 hr 7 min
SI404: When Trend Following Meets Equities ft. Eric Crittenden & Andrew Beer
Trend following has long promised and delivered diversification, crisis protection and uncorrelated returns. Yet many investors still struggle to hold it through difficult periods. In this conversation, Andrew Beer and Eric Crittenden explore why that gap exists and how combining trend following with equities may create a more durable portfolio. Together with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen discuss the rise of managed futures ETFs, the debate between simplicity and complexity in systematic investing, and why algorithmic discipline allows investors to act when intuition fails. The episode also examines portfolio construction, product design and the evolving role of alternatives in a changing investment landscape. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Follow Eric on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series and the week's guests 02:19 - Eric reflects on recent market trends and challenging periods for trend followers 03:15 - Andrew shares optimism about AI, innovation and technological progress 06:25 - Elon Musk, SpaceX and the future of technological disruption 09:22 - The evolution of managed futures ETFs and the growing demand for alternative strategies 15:58 - How ETF liquidity works and why portfolio construction matters 19:40 - The case for combining equities and trend following into one portfolio 21:37 - Eric explains the philosophy behind his multi asset approach 31:15 - Product design, allocator behavior and why diversification often fails in practice 40:44 - Simplicity versus complexity in systematic investing 46:58 - Why elegant models often fail in real world markets 57:05 - Sharpe ratios, diversification and combining multiple return streams 59:52 - Andrew introduces the idea of Contrarian Tactical Alpha 01:02:55 - Eric on algorithmic discipline and why trends are uncomfortable to follow 01:05:26 - Final thoughts on trend following, risk management and portfolio construction Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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June 10 · 53 min
UGO12: Why the Next Financial Crisis Could Change America Forever ft. Danielle DiMartino Booth
As Kevin Warsh prepares to take the reins at the Federal Reserve, a deeper question emerges: has the Fed reached the limits of what monetary policy can achieve? Cem Karsan sits down with Danielle DiMartino Booth to explore the growing tensions between inflation, debt, financialization, and political pressure. From the future of quantitative easing and Treasury market risks to the rise of populism and the long term consequences of decades of intervention, this conversation examines whether the United States is approaching a turning point that could redefine the relationship between markets, government, and the Federal Reserve. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Danielle on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and why Kevin Warsh's arrival at the Fed matters 02:25 - Warsh steps into a divided Federal Reserve 05:13 - The debt problem and the pressures facing policymakers 07:52 - Can Warsh avoid another era of quantitative easing? 10:00 - Interest rates, inflation, and the limits of Fed policy 17:53 - Revisiting Arthur Burns and the lessons of the 1970s 23:02 - Treasury buybacks, debt monetization, and market stability 29:27 - Populism, demographics, and the future inflation outlook 37:34 - Is the Fed’s mandate shifting toward managing government debt? 43:06 - Sovereign wealth funds and the possibility of equity market intervention 45:56 - Would merging Treasury and the Fed end central bank independence? 49:59 - Has the Federal Reserve broken the natural business cycle? 51:22 - Final thoughts on crisis, reform, and America’s economic future Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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June 6 · 1 hr 24 min
SI403: Trend Following in an Era of Geopolitical Risk ft. Marat Molyboga & Katy Kaminski
Geopolitical tensions, inflation shocks, and shifting market regimes are reshaping the investment landscape. Marat Molyboga and Katy Kaminski joins us to explore why managed futures have historically performed well during periods of geopolitical stress and why investors often misunderstand the role of crisis alpha in a portfolio. The conversation examines inflation driven market disruptions, diversification, short term versus long term trend following, portfolio construction, and the behavioural mistakes that prevent many investors from capturing the full benefits of trend strategies. It is a wide ranging discussion about risk, uncertainty, and adapting to a changing world. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and welcome to the Systematic Investor series 01:13 - Marat Molyboga's background and Efficient Capital's investment philosophy 05:29 - World Cup excitement, soccer stories, and thoughts beyond markets 11:36 - AI, market concentration, energy trends, and major macro headlines 15:16 - Trend following performance review and key market drivers in 2026 23:36 - Understanding crisis alpha and the role of managed futures in portfolios 33:24 - Diversification, portfolio construction, and avoiding investor mistakes 44:08 - Geopolitical risk research and its connection to inflation 53:01 - Why managed futures have historically benefited from geopolitical uncertainty 59:01 - Commodities, inflation shocks, and the mechanics behind crisis alpha 01:06:47 - The case for short term trend following and execution challenges 01:20:31 - Final thoughts and lessons for navigating an uncertain investment landscape Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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June 3 · 1 hr 1 min
ALO35: Why Macro Investing Is Becoming More Systematic ft. George Patterson
How do quantitative investors adapt when markets, technology and macro regimes are constantly changing? In this conversation, Alan Dunne sits down with George Patterson, CIO of PGIM Quant Solutions, to explore the evolution of systematic investing from the 1990s to today’s AI driven landscape. They discuss regime detection, inflation risk, portfolio construction, machine learning, private markets, volatility overlays and the growing role of language models in investment research. George also shares insights from decades in quant investing, including lessons from Covid, the importance of model discipline and why communication skills matter as much as technical expertise. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow George on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to George Patterson and his journey from physics to quantitative investing 03:12 - Why multidisciplinary teams matter in modern quant investing 04:13 - Inside PGIM Quant Solutions and the evolution of multi asset investing 06:03 - How markets and macro investing have changed since the 1990s 09:12 - The future of the 60/40 portfolio and institutional portfolio construction 12:11 - Private markets, liquidity challenges and institutional investor concerns 13:25 - Inflation, commodities and building modern inflation hedges 19:33 - Detecting macro regimes using quantitative models 23:26 - The hardest part of systematic investing: trusting the process 27:00 - Covid, model failures and managing regime shifts in real time 30:07 - Portfolio protection, options strategies and volatility overlays 32:01 - How AI and large language models are transforming quantitative research 40:02 - Fiscal risks, inflation concerns and the changing rate environment 44:26 - Simplicity versus complexity in quantitative model design 48:05 - Why markets evolve faster today and how models must adapt 51:08 - Retail investors, meme stocks and market distortions 53:33 - Emerging markets and where long term opportunities may exist 55:08 - The future of quant investing and the limits of AI hype 57:10 - George Patterson’s career advice for aspiring quants Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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May 30 · 1 hr 30 min
SI402: Why Markets Can’t Stop Trending ft. Richard Brennan
What happens when markets stop behaving like machines and start behaving like living systems? In this episode, Richard Brennan joins Niels to explore passive investing, complex adaptive systems, volatility suppression, and the hidden forces reshaping modern market structure. From structured products and reflexive flows to demographics, trend following, and the fragile illusion of equilibrium, this conversation asks whether markets are becoming more unstable precisely because investors believe they have become safer. A thoughtful and layered discussion about why price discovery may be weakening, why trends persist, and why systematic strategies may be more relevant in a world increasingly shaped by feedback loops. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the episode and overview of today’s discussion 02:22 - Richard Brennan breaks down passive investing through the lens of complex adaptive systems 06:51 - What “complex adaptive systems” actually means in markets 14:53 - Why passive investing changes market structure without individual investors realizing it 24:06 - Niels discusses structured products, volatility suppression, and market fragility 29:23 - How demographic shifts could eventually reshape passive investing trends 35:37 - Trend following performance update and the TTU Trend Barometer 38:48 - Listener question on variance, volatility, and correlation in systematic trend following 42:04 - The “murmuration” analogy and why markets behave like flocks instead of machines 48:31 - Why equilibrium theory survives despite failing to explain real markets 51:17 - The endogenous engine of markets and the mechanics of reflexivity 57:47 - How trend followers align with the architecture of modern markets 01:03:12 - Why passive investing weakens balancing forces and strengthens trends 01:13:43 - The statistical evidence showing markets structurally trend over time 01:21:18 - Why trend following may become even more effective in the future Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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May 27 · 1 hr 1 min
IL49: The Space Economy Is No Longer Science Fiction ft. Rainer Zitelmann
On this episode we are joined by Dr. Rainer Zitelmann, to discuss his book New Space Capitalism: The Entrepreneurial Path to the Stars. We discuss why government-funded space programs were initially successful but also why the future of space exploration, and the space economy, will be driven by private companies. Dr. Zitelmann explains what he believes to be the key driver of unlocking the economic potential of space and why it’s conceivable that ventures such as space tourism, orbital data centers and asteroid mining might be listed on the stock exchange. This is a conversation for everyone who wants an early look at an industry that is about to “take off”! ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Rainer on Instagram and read his book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why incentives may explain why humans stopped going to the moon 01:07 - Kevin introduces Dr. Rainer Zitelmann and New Space Capitalism 02:47 - How childhood fascination with space led to a lifelong interest 05:45 - Why Apollo succeeded and why it may have been a historical exception 09:22 - The Space Shuttle program and the limits of government-led innovation 13:50 - How SpaceX changed the economics of launch services 20:32 - Why private property rights may be essential for space capitalism 24:36 - The legal uncertainty around owning land and resources in space 32:23 - How Mars settlement could be financed through private ownership 42:49 - Asteroid mining, space resources and the business case beyond Earth 48:06 - Space tourism and why early innovation often starts with the wealthy 53:51 - How investors might think about the emerging space economy 58:27 - Why space capitalism is no longer science fiction Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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Showing 21–40 of 40 episodes