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Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade.
Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success.
No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance.
If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge.
Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience.
🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com

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Today · 1 hr 10 min
UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann
Cem Karsan is joined by Goldman Sachs’ Christian Mueller-Glissmann to ask how much longer the AI boom can keep supporting markets as the bond market becomes increasingly difficult to ignore. They discuss whether today’s extraordinary earnings growth is sustainable, why Christian sees more evidence of an earnings bubble than a valuation bubble, and how higher yields are beginning to pressure parts of the equity market. The conversation also explores unusually high dispersion, cheap equity volatility and the growing challenge of portfolio diversification before turning to geopolitical risk, gold, FX volatility and how investors might prepare for a more inflationary and less predictable market regime. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Christian on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and why the bond market matters again 02:13 - How the AI boom changed the market regime 06:41 - Are the earnings from AI actually sustainable? 10:38 - An earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble? 17:18 - What happens if earnings start to mean revert 22:15 - When the stock market starts driving the economy 28:55 - Why bonds are becoming the speed limit for equities 38:39 - Can the AI boom keep going if rates stay high? 42:21 - Why equity volatility looks unusually cheap 45:30 - What extreme dispersion is telling us about the market 52:44 - How to prepare for a market you can’t time 58:20 - Geopolitics, real assets and the changing role of bonds 01:02:20 - Debasement and the risk investors may be underestimating 01:05:54 - Why currency volatility could matter much more Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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Saturday · 1 hr 18 min
SI421: Taking CTAs Mainstream ft. Andrew Beer
How reliable is 60/40 when stocks and bonds fall together? Andrew Beer joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to question the return forecasts and diversification assumptions behind traditional asset allocation. They explore how a systematic, non-emotional approach to tactical investing can help portfolios adapt as markets change. The conversation also sets out how to grow the CTA/managed futures pie by explaining the strategy’s value in language investors understand. They discuss why diversification across managers and realistic expectations for uneven returns matter for building investor confidence and encouraging lasting allocations. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why portfolios may need a more tactical approach 01:04 - AI, entrepreneurship and the changing world of work 08:07 - Complex systems and why the future is so difficult to predict 09:47 - Trend following performance and what is driving returns 13:59 - Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio is being questioned 16:20 - The problem with long-term asset allocation assumptions 22:41 - Diversification, market timing and the historical advantage of bonds 27:01 - What 27 years of managed futures data tells us 31:51 - Crisis alpha across the dot-com crash, GFC and 2022 36:08 - Correlation, alpha and the diversification case for CTAs 38:12 - Drawdowns and why tactical strategies can preserve capital 44:55 - Sharpe ratios and the problem of lumpy returns 50:39 - Why choosing the right managed futures manager is so difficult 54:57 - How managed futures can finally grow the pie 01:05:04 - Why the industry needs to stop getting lost in the technical details 01:08:14 - The danger of betting everything on one manager 01:13:02 - Why timing managed futures can make a good strategy look bad Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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October 7 · 1 hr
IL54: Why Smart Investors Keep Making Crazy Decisions ft. Alex Edmans
In today’s episode we talk with London Business School professor Alex Edmans. He has spoken at Davos, testified in the UK House of Commons and reached millions through his TED Talks. He joins the show to discuss his new book, THE MADNESS OF MARKETS, WHY SMART INVESTORS MAKE CRAZY DECISIONS AND HOW TO EXPLOIT THEM. Alex explains why “mood matters” for markets and the surprising relationship of football results and music playlists to market movements. We discuss why individual investors sometimes have an advantage over professionals in taking advantage of psychological biases and go through practical ways this can be implemented. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Alex on LinkedIn and Read his Book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and Alex Edmans’ new book The Madness of Markets 02:46 - How football results can move stock markets 07:16 - What Spotify playlists can tell us about investor sentiment 11:28 - Why individual investors may have an advantage over professionals 16:26 - Specialists, generalists and finding your investing edge 21:59 - When benchmarks make active managers too conservative 26:18 - Risk, alpha and the equity premium puzzle 30:07 - Why momentum works and when it crashes 35:35 - Where individual investors can exploit overlooked opportunities 37:48 - How round numbers influence buying and selling decisions 39:54 - The disposition effect and why investors hold onto losers 44:12 - Three practical ways to make better investment decisions 47:20 - Why writing down your investment thesis matters 52:08 - Outsourcing the ugly decisions 55:30 - AI, bubbles and the big market delusion 58:00 - Closing thoughts and where to find the book Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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October 2 · 1 hr 4 min
SI420: The Market Might Be More Fragile Than It Looks ft. Cem Karsan
Alan Dunne is joined by Cem Karsan to examine the forces pushing bond yields higher and why he believes markets are becoming increasingly fragile. Cem argues that refinancing pressures, persistent inflation, declining foreign demand for Treasuries and the enormous capital requirements of the AI boom are creating an unusually unstable backdrop. They discuss the concentration of equity market growth around AI, the relationship between government policy and financial markets, and Cem’s expectation that a Treasury market shock could eventually trigger a forceful policy response. They also explore political risk, market volatility, monetary debasement and why traditional stock and bond portfolios may face a very different environment ahead. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why Cem believes the next V-shaped market move is coming 00:58 - Introduction and what’s on Cem’s radar 03:34 - A strong year for trend following 05:29 - What is driving bond yields higher? 09:09 - Inflation, debt and declining foreign demand for Treasuries 12:53 - Why short-term interest rate expectations have shifted so dramatically 18:01 - Can rising bond yields eventually break the equity market? 19:00 - Why Cem questions the sustainability of AI-driven earnings growth 25:27 - Market concentration and the growing fragility of the system 33:54 - Government intervention and the return of the V-shaped market 37:19 - Cem’s case for a coming Treasury market shock 42:50 - Why the US midterm elections could matter for markets 46:43 - What the options market is pricing for the months ahead 48:27 - Bond volatility and where yields could go next 50:41 - Could the US eventually create a sovereign wealth fund? 54:34 - Inflation, equities and the importance of real returns 01:00:13 - Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may face a different future Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
September 30 · 1 hr 6 min
TTU153: Why Investors Keep Getting Trend Following Wrong ft. Patrick Welton
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne are joined by Welton Investment Corporation founder Patrick Welton to explore what four decades in markets have taught him about trading, risk and managing other people’s money. Pat shares lessons from his encounters with Paul Tudor Jones and John Henry before explaining why taking outside capital fundamentally changes a manager’s responsibility. They discuss the real sources of trend following returns, why managers can damage their edge by listening too closely to clients, and whether replication and multi-strategy funds have changed the landscape. They also explore capacity, changing market regimes and why investor behavior may ultimately matter more than finding the perfect strategy. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Find out more about DUNN Capital. Follow Patrick on LinkedIn. Episode Timestamps: Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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September 26 · 1 hr 5 min
SI419: What Happens When AI Starts Building the Portfolio ft. Nick Baltas
Alan Dunne is joined by Nick Baltas to discuss a strong period for trend following and what the latest research says about adapting systematic strategies to changing markets. They examine whether volatility can help determine how quickly trend models should react, and why Nick remains skeptical of relying on regime triggers with limited statistical evidence. The conversation then turns to agentic AI and a new framework for using specialized AI agents in asset allocation. Nick explores how agents could analyze macro regimes, challenge competing portfolio approaches and help investment committees make decisions faster, while also confronting problems around look-ahead bias, reproducibility and human oversight. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and what’s caught Nick’s attention 01:31 - The extraordinary concentration inside the S&P 500 04:12 - Why bond yields are rising around the world 08:28 - A strong month and year for trend following 12:08 - Why the bond move has happened without a volatility spike 15:12 - Can volatility make trend following more adaptive? 20:43 - What the latest research actually tells us 23:21 - How Nick uses volatility in portfolio construction 25:50 - Can investors identify trend regimes in advance? 27:04 - Why making trend models more complicated may not help 29:30 - V-shaped markets and the problem with regime triggers 32:01 - How agentic AI could reshape asset allocation 44:14 - What actually drives an AI-built portfolio? 50:03 - Why backtesting AI investment models is so difficult 55:05 - Could the same AI framework work for trend following? 58:33 - Using AI to manage competing investment objectives 01:01:22 - When will we see portfolios run by AI agents? Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
September 23 · 59 min
OI24: Why Power Trading Is 10 Times Crazier Than Crypto ft. Cory Paddock
Moritz Seibert is joined by GBE Energy co-founder Cory Paddock for a look inside the unusual world of proprietary power trading. Cory explains how electricity markets combine weather, physics and economics, and why understanding supply and demand can create opportunities in markets where prices can change dramatically within minutes. They explore the psychology behind taking risk, why a handful of exceptional days can define an entire year, and the lessons Cory learned from his biggest wins and losses. They also discuss GBE’s approach to developing young traders and how AI is accelerating the process of turning raw talent into real trading ability. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Follow Cory on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Knowing when to walk away from a losing trade 01:03 - Introducing Cory Paddock and GBE Energy 04:35 - How US power markets actually work 08:21 - PJM and the changing US electricity mix 11:07 - Why North America effectively has three separate power grids 14:42 - What a power trader actually trades 19:40 - Why electricity trading never really stops 21:48 - Finding an edge through supply, demand and weather 28:13 - Why power markets remain so attractive to traders 30:37 - What “10 times crypto” volatility looks like 33:50 - The four stages of becoming a power trader 36:07 - Conviction, sizing and getting comfortable with being uncomfortable 38:15 - The trades that helped create GBE Energy 40:42 - What a painful losing trade taught Cory 43:16 - Why GBE changed the way it recruits traders 48:57 - What Cory looks for in aspiring traders 50:50 - How quickly can someone learn to trade power? 53:31 - AI, data centers and the future of electricity markets Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
September 19 · 1 hr 15 min
SI418: Why Markets Are More Alive Than We Think ft. Richard Brennan
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Richard Brennan explore what the science of complex adaptive systems can teach us about markets and trend following. Drawing on research from the Santa Fe Institute, they examine why markets may be better understood as evolving systems shaped by the participants within them rather than machines moving toward equilibrium. They discuss reflexivity, increasing returns and how trends can begin to reinforce themselves, before asking what this means for systematic investors. Along the way, Richard explains why backtests are evidence rather than promises, why taking profits too early can be costly, and why responding to markets may ultimately matter more than predicting them. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why trend following’s edge may have moved rather than disappeared 03:26 - What three years of research revealed about trend following 06:50 - Why big trends and outliers are structural features of markets 11:35 - Trend following performance and what’s moving markets 16:49 - Should trend followers ever take profits early? 21:03 - What the Santa Fe Institute can teach us about markets 25:51 - Why markets are complex adaptive systems 29:46 - Reflexivity and how investors help create market outcomes 35:18 - Why equilibrium may be the wrong way to think about markets 40:22 - Mean reversion, positive feedback and why trends persist 42:55 - Increasing returns and the lessons of VHS versus Betamax 50:01 - How market movements begin to feed on themselves 54:11 - Why trend following emerged inside an artificial stock market 58:20 - How every system eventually gets gamed 01:01:47 - What backtests can and cannot tell us about the future 01:08:31 - How trend followers prepare for a future they cannot predict Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
September 16 · 1 hr 3 min
IL53: How Bonds Quietly Built the Modern World ft. Robin Wigglesworth
Today we talk with the editor of the Financial Times’ Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth. Robin is the author of A Fabulous Debt - the Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World. He tells the story of the bond market’s beginnings in Venice and how the ability to issue and trade bonds was an essential aspect of its rise to power. Robin explains why historically bond markets and democracy have gone hand-in-hand. Innovations in how bonds are structured and traded also have the ability alter market fundamentals and he explains how this happened with the US junk bond market pioneered by Michael Milken. We talk about likely future innovations and finish with a discussion of current bond market turmoil and the implications for both the Fed and Treasury. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Robin on X and Read his Book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - How junk bonds changed the market 00:56 - Introducing Robin Wigglesworth and A Fabulous Debt 03:39 - Why ignorance can actually help you understand history 07:50 - How Venice accidentally invented the bond market 12:55 - How bonds helped strengthen democracy and accountability 17:31 - How Britain turned bonds into a global reserve asset 24:43 - Why strong bond markets often create stronger countries 28:56 - Could Europe ever create a true Eurobond market? 32:19 - How the modern international bond market was born 39:39 - Michael Milken and the rise of junk bonds 44:21 - How Milken changed the market he was studying 48:51 - Tokenization and the next evolution of fixed income 49:28 - Why bond ETFs may have actually improved liquidity 55:24 - What Treasury buybacks are really trying to achieve 57:33 - Why Robin thinks the buybacks won’t solve the problem Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
September 12 · 1 hr 8 min
SI417: What Happens When AI Starts Trading the Markets ft. Rob Carver
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Rob Carver discuss a market that feels unusually calm despite growing pressure beneath the surface. They look at rising concerns around government debt and bond yields, recent changes to a major managed futures ETF, and why style drift matters for systematic investors. Rob explains why simplicity and robustness remain essential when building trading systems, and where discretion can and cannot fit into a systematic process. They also explore the risks of using AI in quantitative investing, whether AI-driven traders could change market behavior, and why adapting trend speed to volatility may be more complicated than it first appears. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and Rob’s return from the summer break 02:03 - Why everyone is suddenly talking about bonds 05:07 - Treasury buybacks and the potential for new bond trends 07:40 - What happened to the Simplify managed futures ETF? 14:34 - Style drift, investor expectations and changing strategies 17:15 - Why it feels like something is about to happen in markets 20:23 - Trend following performance and the year so far 23:32 - How much should systematic investors actually optimize? 31:38 - Can discretion and systematic trading really work together? 36:37 - Where human judgment belongs in a trading strategy 40:55 - Why traders may be better at buying than selling 44:21 - AI, quant research and the risks of automated trading 52:42 - Revisiting volatility and trend following 55:47 - Why not all high-volatility markets are the same 01:00:23 - The quant winter and why manager diversification matters Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
September 9 · 1 hr 2 min
GM107: What If AI Actually Pushes Interest Rates Higher? ft. Matt Klein
Alan Dunne is joined by Matt Klein to discuss whether the excitement around AI is getting ahead of the economic reality. Matt explains why the parallels with the 1990s productivity boom may be misleading and why stronger productivity could actually push interest rates higher rather than lower. They explore the surge in AI investment, what rising bond yields really tell us about the economy, and whether US debt levels are as worrying as they appear. The conversation also turns to China’s enormous trade surplus, growing global imbalances, the prospect of European tariffs, currency intervention and what Kevin Warsh’s new Fed task forces could mean for monetary policy. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Matt on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and Matt Klein’s return to Top Traders Unplugged 01:57 - Kevin Warsh, Jackson Hole and the outlook for the Fed 05:15 - Why the AI boom may not look like the 1990s 11:39 - How quickly could AI actually boost productivity? 15:47 - Are we seeing an AI productivity boom in the data? 18:56 - Does AI change how we should think about the economy? 21:41 - AI spending, data centers and the risk of a capex bust 26:18 - Why bond yields could have further to rise 31:13 - When higher interest rates might actually be good news 33:17 - US debt sustainability and the risk of a bad equilibrium 37:04 - China and the return of global economic imbalances 42:11 - How China’s massive trade surplus is affecting the world 48:50 - Tariffs, Europe and how countries might respond to China 52:01 - Why the US intervened in the Japanese yen 58:33 - Kevin Warsh’s Fed task forces and what could change next Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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September 5 · 1 hr 14 min
SI416: 137 Years of Trend: What the Evidence Really Shows ft. Yoav Git
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git examine why trend following continues to endure despite decades of changing markets and persistent skepticism. They revisit AQR’s 137-year study of trend following, exploring diversification, volatility scaling and the behavioral and economic forces behind persistent trends. The conversation also turns to the mechanics of commodity markets, using the 2020 oil collapse to show how inventories, storage capacity and forced futures rolls can produce extreme price moves. Along the way, they discuss investor trust, systematic risk intervention, CTA implementation and why understanding market structure matters just as much as building the signal. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Yoav on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Yoav's radar 01:54 - Why investor relationships are ultimately built on trust 06:36 - CTA ETFs, strategy changes and investor transparency 10:55 - Multi-strategy funds and the cost of complexity 12:36 - TTU competition winners and the August trend update 16:14 - Global rates, Japan and opportunities beyond U.S. bonds 19:07 - August performance and the Trend Barometer 21:09 - Correlation, volatility and how CTAs manage portfolio risk 25:09 - Human intervention inside a systematic investment process 29:40 - Where different commodity market participants operate 31:44 - Revisiting 137 years of evidence for trend following 38:30 - Has trend following performance actually deteriorated? 43:58 - Why diversification is fundamental to trend following 51:16 - Oil squeezes, storage and the mechanics of commodity markets 58:00 - Carry, inventories and oil price elasticity 01:04:36 - What really caused oil prices to turn negative in 2020 01:09:40 - What commodity market structure teaches trend followers Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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September 2 · 1 hr 24 min
GM106: What Happens When the Debt Finally Matters ft. Marvin Barth
Marvin Barth joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan for a wide-ranging debate about the Fed, inflation and the growing pressures on the US economy. Barth argues that central bankers have become too confident in models that cannot fully capture reality, while the conversation quickly turns to Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the power of signaling in financial markets. From there, Cem and Marvin "clash" over austerity, debt monetization, populism and inequality before examining why inflation expectations may matter more than individual shocks. We round this super energetic conversation by exploring the coming historic El Niño, commodity disruptions and what Warsh’s recent dovish turn could reveal about the future of Fed policy. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Marvin on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why inflation expectations matter more than anything else 01:05 - Introducing Marvin Barth 04:46 - From salmon fishing to the Federal Reserve 09:09 - Has central banking become too confident in its own models? 16:25 - Bessent, Warsh and what Treasury buybacks really mean 18:15 - Why signaling may matter more than the actual policy 25:56 - Can the US actually solve its debt problem through austerity? 31:25 - Debt, inflation, China and the pressures building in the system 35:31 - Is there another way out for the US economy? 40:29 - The big debate over populism and inequality 47:39 - Free markets, fairness and who actually benefits 57:59 - Why inflation ultimately comes down to expectations 59:46 - Austerity versus monetizing the debt 01:02:06 - How El Niño could reshape inflation and emerging markets 01:11:26 - Has Kevin Warsh already changed course at the Fed? Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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August 29 · 1 hr 6 min
SI415: Maybe This Is Just What Normal Markets Look Like ft. Alan Dunne
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne examine how a changing macro regime is reshaping markets and the role of trend following. They discuss unusual U.S. intervention in the yen, mounting sensitivity around Treasury yields, and questions surrounding Kevin Warsh’s communication and the Fed’s credibility. Alan identifies three fractures defining the new regime: persistent inflation, growing debt sustainability concerns, and the erosion of institutional norms. They also explore why trend following has performed differently this decade, particularly during periods of bond market stress, before comparing AQR and GMO’s strikingly different long-term return assumptions and what they imply for portfolio construction. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and what’s been on Alan’s radar 01:55 - Why U.S. intervention in the yen matters 07:04 - Zuckerberg, Meta and the $16.68 billion question 08:31 - August trend following performance and market intervention 12:16 - Why CTA performance is increasingly dispersed 16:08 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed balance sheet and Treasury supply 18:56 - Has short-term trend following structurally degraded? 22:17 - Macro narratives versus systematic positioning 24:37 - Fed communication, credibility and the Warsh reaction function 30:16 - Bessent, Warsh, Druckenmiller and the battle over bond yields 34:23 - The three fractures reshaping the macro regime 41:42 - How trend following has changed in the new regime 49:54 - Commodities, deglobalization and diversification 52:29 - AQR versus GMO: radically different forecasts for future returns 01:02:08 - Debt sustainability and what investors should watch next Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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August 26 · 47 min
IL52: Why Staying Calm Is the Ultimate Investing Edge ft. David Booth
In today’s episode we talk with a pioneer of modern asset management, Dimensional Fund Advisors founder David Booth. David founded Dimensional in 1981 and it has since grown to over $1 trillion in assets, making it one of the most successful quantitative investment firms in history. We talk with him about his new book, Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life. We discuss his early career working on both the world’s first index fund and the first active quant strategy developed by finance legends Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. David explains why successful investing involves embracing uncertainty - because it is that uncertainty that generates long-run returns. He explains why we should abandon predicting markets and focus instead on planning. We end by discussing why he is both a realist and optimist and how each of us can cultivate the same mindset. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow David on LinkedIn and Read his Book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why uncertainty creates opportunity for long term investors 01:01 - David Booth's journey from Kansas to pioneering modern investing 06:13 - The birth of index investing and the origins of Dimensional 10:21 - Why investing is about managing uncertainty not predicting markets 13:00 - Why everyone should own part of the market 14:00 - Human ingenuity, market resilience and the lessons of history 18:02 - Updating research without abandoning first principles 23:38 - Has the rise of index investing changed the market? 28:45 - Diversification beyond the Magnificent Seven 29:52 - Tuning out market noise and focusing on what matters 32:23 - Why life events should shape your portfolio more than headlines 34:53 - Plan don't predict and learning to stay calm 39:02 - Optimism, realism and why markets continue to work 42:33 - Why investors have never had it better Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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August 22 · 1 hr 14 min
SI414: The Hidden Risks Beneath the Treasury Market ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine the warning signs emerging beneath seemingly calm markets, from extreme single-stock moves and commodity shortages to growing strains in the U.S. Treasury market. They explore how leveraged hedge funds and basis trades have become increasingly important to Treasury liquidity, and why market plumbing can matter as much as price signals. The conversation then turns to the evolution of trend following, comparing different approaches to signals and position sizing, the benefits of combining methodologies, and why short-term trend strategies face structural challenges. Finally, Mark reflects on the legacy of quantitative trading pioneer Victor Niederhoffer. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and summer reflections 01:42 - Warning signs and rumblings beneath the markets 07:06 - Extreme single-stock moves and hidden risk 10:09 - Copper, inventories and commodity squeezes 13:08 - Oil markets and the danger of disappearing buffer stocks 14:51 - August trend following performance 16:01 - Why market uncertainty could create new trends 20:37 - The Treasury buyback program and bond market liquidity 27:10 - Is the Treasury quietly stabilizing long-term yields? 31:56 - The plumbing problem inside the U.S. Treasury market 36:28 - Hedge funds, basis trades and leverage 41:40 - Can Treasuries still be considered a safe asset? 47:17 - Three different approaches to trend following 52:25 - How investors should diversify across trend managers 56:49 - The “podification” of trend following 59:29 - Why short-term trend following struggles 01:03:19 - Victor Niederhoffer and the foundations of quantitative trading Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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August 19 · 1 hr 4 min
ALO38: Why the Old Rules of Diversification Are Changing ft. Mike Pyle
Alan Dunne is joined by Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group, to explore how a supply-driven world is reshaping markets and portfolio construction. They discuss the transition from the demand-constrained 2010s to an era defined by scarcity, fiscal activism, geopolitical shocks and the immense capital demands of AI. Pyle explains why bonds may no longer provide the diversification they once did, why hedge funds and market-neutral strategies are becoming increasingly important, and how portable alpha can separate beta from return generation. They also examine AI productivity, equity valuations and what should replace the traditional 60/40 portfolio. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Mike on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 Mike Pyle’s journey from policymaking to investing 04:30 The shift from a demand-driven to a supply-driven world 07:29 Why the stock-bond relationship has changed 12:09 The return of fiscal activism 15:52 AI, scarcity and the growing demands on capital 19:57 When will AI productivity begin to transform the economy? 22:53 AI, inflation and the future of interest rates 25:23 AI valuations, earnings and whether markets are in a bubble 29:48 Building portfolios for the new macro regime 33:35 Private markets, income and hedge fund diversification 37:06 Why multi-strategy investing matters 42:19 Leverage, factor exposure and lessons from the quant crisis 46:08 Why the environment for hedge funds has improved 48:39 Portable alpha and separating alpha from beta 52:51 What comes after the traditional 60/40 portfolio 56:47 How AI could transform investment management 01:00:19 Mike Pyle’s advice for the next generation of investors Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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August 15 · 1 hr 21 min
SI413: Why Trend Following Is More Than Crisis Alpha ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel to examine a remarkable period for systematic investing. They discuss how CTAs have navigated volatile moves across equities, commodities, currencies and rates while preserving strong gains, and why diversification has been central to that resilience. The conversation explores leverage, the renewed interest in managed accounts and portable alpha, alongside the growing distinction between trend and non-trend strategies. They also challenge the traditional framing of CTAs as crisis alpha, debate whether greater complexity actually improves returns, and examine the difficulties investors face when selecting managers and benchmarking an industry where yesterday’s winners may not remain tomorrow’s leaders. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Follow Tom on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and eclipse mania 02:57 - Volatility, valuations and a changing market environment 06:22 - Trend Barometer falls as opportunities narrow 08:21 - How CTAs have navigated 2026 10:10 - An extraordinary year for systematic investing 14:07 - Yen intervention and CTA resilience 17:11 - Trend versus non-trend performance 22:20 - August performance and the systematic landscape 24:48 - Active commodity strategies versus traditional CTAs 29:39 - Situational Awareness and the risks of leverage 32:14 - Managed accounts, capital efficiency and risk control 37:49 - Are systematic strategies becoming over-engineered? 42:45 - The growing divide between trend and non-trend CTAs 50:34 - Reframing trend following as all-weather alpha 55:07 - Why the crisis alpha narrative can be misleading 01:04:06 - The hidden challenges of CTA benchmarks 01:12:12 - Manager selection and diversification across CTAs 01:14:15 - Does non-trend really improve a CTA portfolio? Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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August 12 · 1 hr 2 min
ALO37: Investing in the New World Order ft. Charles-Henry Monchau
Charles-Henry Monchau joins Alan Dunne to discuss how geopolitics, artificial intelligence and structural economic shifts are reshaping global investing. They explore the AI supercycle, the changing balance between the US, China and Europe, sovereign debt, inflation, commodities and the future of asset allocation. Charles explains why investors should focus on long-term structural themes rather than short-term market noise and why the biggest opportunities may lie beyond the current AI infrastructure boom. The conversation also examines Europe’s competitiveness, China’s innovation strategy and the risks that could define the next phase of the investment cycle. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Charles on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Charles-Henry Monchau's path into investing 03:49 - The new geopolitical order and global investing 09:02 - Is artificial intelligence inflationary or deflationary? 12:49 - The AI CapEx supercycle and future market winners 18:41 - Are markets in an earnings bubble? 21:27 - Capital spending, debt issuance and market liquidity 25:22 - Sovereign debt and the future of asset allocation 28:13 - Gold, fiscal dominance and reserve currencies 32:27 - Kevin Warsh and the future of the Federal Reserve 40:36 - China's innovation strategy and investment outlook 43:49 - Building portfolios around AI winners and losers 48:12 - Commodities, biotech and defense opportunities 51:10 - Can Europe remain competitive? 57:23 - The biggest risks facing investors today 58:45 - Career advice for the next generation of investors Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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August 8 · 1 hr 19 min
SI412: Portable Alpha: Asking the Questions That Matter ft. Harry Moore
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Harry Moore explore the latest developments in trend following, the AI investment boom and why diversification matters most when markets come under pressure. They discuss CTA performance, market dispersion, portable alpha, cash efficient portfolio construction and the role of trend following during major market drawdowns. The conversation also examines how artificial intelligence is transforming quantitative research, the practical challenges of portfolio implementation and new research linking classic Turtle Trading principles to modern portfolio theory. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Harry on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Market headlines, AI investing and recent macro developments 09:32 - Trend following performance and July market review 18:42 - How market selection drives CTA performance 22:21 - The AI trade and why trend following provides portfolio resilience 30:36 - How AI is transforming quantitative research 36:07 - Portable alpha and why cash efficiency matters 46:14 - Cash buffers, margin management and implementation risks 56:33 - Correlation, diversification and building resilient portfolios 58:15 - The mathematics behind the Turtle Trading rules 01:08:54 - Why risk management has always been the core of trend following 01:11:28 - Understanding leverage in portable alpha strategies 01:18:32 - Listener questions and final thoughts Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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Showing 1–20 of 41 episodes