The Horn

International Crisis Group

The Horn of Africa is in turmoil. From revolution in Sudan to civil war in Ethiopia, from Somalia’s political stalemate and the regional spread of jihadism to troubled East African democracies, the region’s pace and scale of change are difficult to keep up with. The Horn, a podcast series from the International Crisis Group, helps make sense of it all. Host Alan Boswell and guests dive deep behind the headlines as they analyse events, debate diplomacy and discuss avenues toward peace. Hosted by Alan Boswell and produced by Maeve Frances

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173 episodes
Updated July 10

Episodes173

Newest first

Dec 4, 2020 · 28 min
As Conflicts Mount, Where Does Ethiopia Go from Here?
With the conflict in Tigray declared over by the federal government, Ethiopia’s complex transition is at a daunting crossroads. Steering the country into calmer waters ahead of the upcoming elections will require difficult political navigation by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Regional autonomy demands, border disputes, and recurring bouts of inter-ethnic violence lay bare the many fault lines that remain. What will it take to successfully bridge the competing agendas of ethnonationalism and pan-Ethiopianism to find a workable middle ground on which to advance Ethiopia’s democratic transition? Constitutional specialist and political analyst Adem Kassie Abebe, a Program Officer at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), joins Alan to give his personal take on the likelihood of a Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) insurgency, the imperative of inclusive national dialogue in the near future and the different directions the country could be headed in given these uncertainties. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Nov 17, 2020 · 30 min
Biden and Africa – Same Old, or New Era?
The last four years of relative U.S. absence in Africa contrast starkly with the country’s historically oversized role in shaping peace and security on the continent. Has this shift set the tone for years to come or will President-elect Biden seek to re-engage as an active partner? Crisis Group’s Chief of Staff Brittany Brown, having worked on African affairs under Presidents Bush, Obama, and Trump, joins Alan for a look at what Biden’s foreign policy priorities should be. Together they draw parallels between previous U.S. administrations to envisage whether the incoming Biden team will mark a departure from past approaches to China, human rights, counter-terrorism, and multilateralism in Africa – and the Horn of Africa region in particular. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Nov 6, 2020 · 38 min
Special Episode: Ethiopia's Slide Toward Civil War
A war that many feared was possible but hoped would never happen appears to be underway between Ethiopia’s federal forces and those commanded by the northern Tigray region. William Davison, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Ethiopia, walks Alan through the long-simmering tensions that set both sides on the course to armed conflict. Joining from Addis Ababa, he gives his assessment of how the conflict is playing out, stressing the urgent need for concerted diplomatic intervention to bring a potentially protracted conflict situation to a halt. Alan is also joined by Crisis Group’s Deputy Africa Program Director Dino Mahtani for an overview of how a full-blown civil war could not only wreak devastation in Ethiopia but also have grave consequences for peace and security in its neighborhood and Africa at large. For more information, see: Ethiopia’s Clash with Tigray: Getting to a Ceasefire and National Dialogue Steering Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis Away from Conflict The Horn S1 Episode 9: Ethiopia’s Fragile Transition Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Nov 2, 2020 · 27 min
Sudan's U.S. Terror Delisting: Too Little, Too Late?
Almost eighteen months after a popular revolution ousted President Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s transition remains on shaky ground. While the Juba peace agreement signed in August and President Trump’s recent announcement that Sudan will be removed from the U.S. State Sponsors of Terrorism (SST) list are welcome developments, the economic crisis and societal frustrations remain unchanged in the absence of substantial support from the international community. On his return from Khartoum, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Sudan, Jonas Horner, joins Alan to explain how this lack of buy-in endangers these initial signs of progress, why the way political alignments are currently shifting in the capital is cause for concern, what post-Bashir Sudan looks like on the ground and where it looks to be headed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Oct 21, 2020 · 30 min
Strengthening Africa’s Hand in Peace and Security
The onslaught of COVID-19 combined with a host of upcoming elections are putting Africa’s peacebuilding institutions and democratic resilience to the test. Managing the overlapping challenges in many countries, several of them undergoing critical transitions, will require a balance between forming consensus internally and collaborating with external partners. Joining Alan this week to discuss peace and security on the continent is Hanna Tetteh, UN Under Secretary General and Special Representative to the Secretary General to the African Union. Drawing on her own experience and the cases of Sudan and South Sudan in particular, she shares her thoughts on the importance of finding solutions on common issues within multilateral frameworks, strengthening the partnership between the AU and UN and building truly inclusive peace processes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Oct 6, 2020 · 32 min
Eritrea's One-man Rule
President Isaias Afwerki has become virtually synonymous with the state of Eritrea, having single-handedly molded the country in his image since its inception in 1991. Alan is joined this week by Martin Plaut – author, journalist and now Senior Fellow at the University of London – who has covered Eritrea’s trajectory for almost 40 years. Together they explore how Isaias has maintained his unyielding grip on power while pursuing his geopolitical ambitions in the region and further afield. Martin describes a country pervaded with regime paranoia, extreme domestic repression, and isolationism that has somehow also managed to leverage itself into strategic partnerships with actors ranging from the UAE and Saudi Arabia to insurgent groups. This in-depth conversation offers insights into the inner workings of the Horn of Africa’s most off-the-radar country, the shape-shifting quality of Isaias’ shrewd foreign policy as well as the uncertain future of a post-Isaias Eritrea. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sep 24, 2020 · 34 min
Bonus Episode: Ethiopia's Political Crisis (from the Crisis Group podcast Hold Your Fire!)
In the third episode of Crisis Group's new podcast Hold Your Fire!, our Ethiopia Senior Analyst Will Davison joins host Rob Malley, our President, and co-host Naz Modirzadeh, a Crisis Group Trustee and Harvard professor of international law and conflict. Together they discuss the enormous challenges facing Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed amid rising ethnic tensions. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sep 22, 2020 · 26 min
A Rare Glimpse into Darfur’s Last Rebel Stronghold
Sudan’s 31 August peace deal between the government and an alliance of rebel groups from Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile was welcomed with enthusiasm by the international community. But in the Jebel Marra mountains of Darfur, controlled by a faction of the Sudanese Liberation Movement (SLM), a rebel group that refused to sign the agreement, it was met with raised eyebrows. In early 2020, Vice News correspondent Julia Steers became the first foreign journalist to set foot in the Jebel Marra in five years. She witnessed first-hand why mistrust toward the government flies high in this remote area traumatised by seventeen years of war, even after former President Omar al-Bashir’s ousting in 2019. Steers explains how the rebels want justice for the crimes committed in Darfur and a significant improvement of the situation on the ground, where gunshots ring out daily and humanitarian services are absent. High on their list of concerns is also the fact that the process that led to the August agreement involves a general they consider as one of the masterminds of the genocide committed against them. Elsewhere in Darfur, Steers notes, challenges standing in the way of peace also abound. One obstacle is a surge in what the United Nations calls “tribal clashes”, where civilians displaced by the conflict are attacked in and outside the camps they live in. Explore our Sudan page to learn more about Crisis Group’s analysis on the country: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/sudan To watch Vice News’ feature “Inside the Forgotten War in Darfur, Where the Killing Never Stopped”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NlgaXrMTc4 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Sep 8, 2020 · 30 min
Peace and Conflict in Africa, Then and Now
To mark the first episode of season two of The Horn, Alan talks with Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director Comfort Ero about how the politics of conflict and peacemaking have changed — and not changed — across the African continent during the decade that she has led the organisation’s work on Africa. She highlights that although headlines may be dominated by topics such as “jihadist threat” and “violent extremism”, the key causes of conflict remain the same, namely corruption, instrumentalisation of ethnicity, and marginalisation of certain communities. They discuss power struggles in the Horn of Africa as America’s primacy wanes, the African Union’s more assertive role in peace and security, and how African leaders should manage their relationships with China to strengthen conflict resolution on the continent, not repressive authoritarian regimes. They also explore the benefits and risks of talking about African solutions to African problems, and the need to take into account the crucial national interests that can drive a state to try to shape the future of a neighboring country. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Aug 9, 2020 · 31 min
Replay: Rashid Abdi
In our second re-run of the Summer, Alan is joined by Rashid Abdi to discuss the legal battle Kenya and Somalia are fighting over their shared maritime border.Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi "Farmajo" has taken a more assertive stance to demons...
Jul 20, 2020 · 26 min
Replay: Nanjala Nyabola
During our season break, we will be re-running two early podcasts from our first season that new subscribers might have missed. We will be back in September with some brand new episodes. Digital technologies are having a dramatic impact on politics. B...
Jul 6, 2020 · 30 min
Somali Politics Heat up, Again
Somalia's political crisis has reached a worrying stage. Since his election in 2017, President Farmajo has pushed to strengthen the federal government's control, fuelling infighting between the government and member states. The decision to postpone upcoming elections has inflamed these already deteriorating relations. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab continues to inflict violence and will likely benefit from this political disarray, and external actors compete for influence, using the country as a playground for their own interests. Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Somalia Omar Mahmood joins Alan for the final episode of this season to discuss these worrying trends and the need for a consensus agreement over the electoral process. They also examine the skirmishes in Jubaland's Gedo region and their impact on wider regional dynamics. Thank you for joining us for this first season of the Horn. We would love to hear from you so if you have a few minutes to spare, please fill out this short survey: https://bit.ly/HornSurvey We will be back in September. Until then, stay safe! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jun 22, 2020 · 35 min
As Rains Begin, Crisis Looms over the Nile Dam
As rains swell the Blue Nile, Ethiopia has made clear its intent to soon start filling the massive dam it is building. However, it has yet to reach an agreement with its two downstream neighbours, Sudan, and Egypt. Trilateral talks resumed in early June, and while most elements have been agreed upon, two key issues remain unresolved: drought mitigation and dispute resolution. The gap to reach an agreement is closing fast. William Davison, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Ethiopia, returns to The Horn once more to unpack the complex dynamics at play. He and Alan discuss negotiations, technical issues, and the parties' various concerns. He stresses that all three need to compromise if they hope to reach a deal, lest tensions rise further. For more information, read our statement: Nile Dam Talks: A Short Window to Embrace Compromise Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jun 8, 2020 · 32 min
Africa and the Emerging US-China Cold War
The "age-old story of the rise and fall of great powers", already in motion, has been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. So says Abdul Mohammed, chief of staff and senior political advisor for the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel. Amid waning U.S. influence, the steady rise of China, and a new era of competition between the two, he asks, where does Africa fit in? The continent has undergone a dynamic transformation over the past twenty years. In the absence of robust, long-term U.S. engagement, China has emerged as the continent's most important economic partner. Meanwhile, the U.S. is now primarily focused on sidelining China in Africa rather than providing the transformative engagement needed. With the continent now caught between these two opposing geopolitical forces, just like the rest of the world, Abdul argues that Africans cannot afford to be passive. They will need to "play a weak hand well" by positioning themselves as relevant actors, both in managing the current pandemic and in contributing to the shaping of a future global order. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
May 25, 2020 · 23 min
Inside Africa's Coronavirus Response, with Africa CDC's Dr. John Nkengasong
Africa’s priority in fighting COVID-19 is to find the right “balance between saving lives and saving livelihoods”, based on the experience of what happened in Europe, the United States, and China, says Dr. John Nkengasong, Director of Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), the African Union body coordinating the response to the pandemic on the continent. The wave of COVID-19 infections that many predicted would cruelly expose Africa’s weak health systems has not materialized on the continent thanks to early lockdown measures, lessons learnt from the Ebola and HIV crises, and strong leadership and coordination on a continental level. But Africa is not out of the woods yet, and as European countries start easing lockdowns, Africa needs to redouble its efforts if it wants to avoid a massive spread of the disease. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
May 11, 2020 · 35 min
Fighting the Pandemic in the Horn of Africa: A Conversation with Amb. Alexander Rondos
Africa has been hit with a double punch. The economic fallout of COVID-19 has preceded the health crisis, resulting in job losses and endangering food supplies. The pandemic's impact on the region's tumultuous political transitions could be grave. The international community has moved surprisingly quickly in response to the pandemic, but is it enough? EU Special Representative to the Horn of Africa Alexander Rondos explains that greater regional cooperation is needed to address the potential consequences wrought by the crisis. Only by working more closely together can they develop an effective strategy for pandemic relief. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Apr 29, 2020 · 24 min
Climate, Conflict, and Peacekeeping’s Unwanted Footprint
“Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change across the world, and yet is the least responsible”. Climate change is a threat multiplier. Its ability to disrupt livelihoods, change migration patterns, and complicate political imbalances make it an increasingly significant driver of conflict. David Mozersky, co-founder of Energy Peace Partners and a former Crisis Group project director for the region, is Alan’s guest this week. They examine the conflict in Darfur, UN climate goals, and the international community’s carbon footprint. For more information, see our President and CEO Robert Malley talking to the UN Security Council: https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=791719564689357&ref=watch_permalink Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Apr 22, 2020 · 31 min
Bracing for the Post-pandemic Storm
“COVID-19 is not just an epidemic, but a highly complex emergency”. The implications of the coronavirus pandemic are still unclear. But the looming global recession and direct impact of containment measures on livelihoods make this an unprecedented crisis for Africa. Furthermore, the U.S., once an important ally in times of health crises, has turned its back on the continent, especially after President Trump’s “reckless” decision to terminate funding for the World Health Organization. Worst-hit countries are now faced with the prospect of major food shortages, political fragility, and major economic dislocation. Alex de Waal, an expert on the continent who has written extensively on the effects of pandemics on political power, joins Alan this week to discuss the international system’s ability to respond to the new crisis in Africa and the value of community-led strategies to help blunt the impact. Articles on COVID-19: New Pathogen, Old Politics (Boston Review) COVID-19 in Africa: “Know your Epidemic, Act on its Politics." (African Arguments)Governance Implications of Epidemic Disease in Africa: Updating the Agenda for COVID-19 Books discussed: AIDS and Power: Why there is no Political Crisis - Yet The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa Mass Starvation: The History and Future of Famine Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Apr 15, 2020 · 30 min
Around the Horn: The Political Fallout of the Pandemic
We continue our COVID-19 series with a 360-degree view of perspectives on the pandemic’s impact. Five Crisis Group analysts look at the risks and opportunities in Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Kenya, Tanzania, and South Sudan, as well as the profound political and economic implications of the disease. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Apr 8, 2020 · 24 min
Sizing Up the Threat of COVID-19 in East Africa
COVID-19 poses an enormous threat in the Horn of Africa. Beyond deadly risks to public health and hospitals, democratic systems are already affected and critical diplomatic efforts disrupted. Outbreaks in camps housing refugees and other populations displaced by conflict could be catastrophic. Kenyan diplomat Ambassador Mahboub Maalim joins Alan for this second special COVID-19 episode. They discuss the implications of the disease on vulnerable populations, the threat to multilateral institutions and the limits of virtual diplomacy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.