The Horn

International Crisis Group

The Horn of Africa is in turmoil. From revolution in Sudan to civil war in Ethiopia, from Somalia’s political stalemate and the regional spread of jihadism to troubled East African democracies, the region’s pace and scale of change are difficult to keep up with. The Horn, a podcast series from the International Crisis Group, helps make sense of it all. Host Alan Boswell and guests dive deep behind the headlines as they analyse events, debate diplomacy and discuss avenues toward peace. Hosted by Alan Boswell and produced by Maeve Frances

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173 episodes
Updated July 10

Episodes173

Newest first

Jul 15, 2021 · 40 min
Bonus Episode: Ten Years of South Sudanese Statehood (from the Crisis Group podcast Hold Your Fire!)
This week marks the tenth anniversary of South Sudan’s independence, much-celebrated at the time but now eclipsed by the brutal civil war that followed. The conflict, which saw the army split along ethnic lines, killed an estimated 400,000 people and displaced a third of the country’s population. A 2018 peace deal signed by the war’s two main protagonists, President Salva Kiir and his former Vice President Riek Machar, ended much of the fighting. But millions still suffer from chronic hunger and unchecked militia violence. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Alan Boswell, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for South Sudan, for an in-depth look at the past decade of statehood, the problems still blighting the world’s newest country and prospects for turning the page on the brutal civil war. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our South Sudan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jul 13, 2021 · 33 min
Does a Better Decade Lie Ahead for South Sudan?
In July 2011, South Sudan gained independence with immense international support. Achieving statehood was seen by many as the end of an unstable coexistence with Sudan, but the bloody decade that followed is testament to the dangers and difficulties of state-building. Joining Alan Boswell this week to reflect on South Sudan’s troubled ten-year journey is Dr. Luka Biong Deng Kuol, Dean of Academic Affairs at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies and former civil servant of Southern Sudan and Sudan. Dr. Luka shares his thoughts on what led to the young country’s descent into a devastating civil war and why its two main antagonists, Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, remain locked in zero-sum politics. They discuss what it would take for a leadership change in South Sudan, what constitution would suit the country best, and whether prospects for a much-needed reset are realistic as elections loom on the horizon. For more information: Explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our South Sudan page. See Dr. Luka Biong Deng Kuol’s reflections on the lessons of South Sudan’s first decade. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jul 2, 2021 · 36 min
Bonus Episode: A Dramatic Turn in Ethiopia’s Tigray War (from the Crisis Group podcast Hold Your Fire!)
Earlier this week, fighters loyal to the ousted leaders of Ethiopia’s Tigray region recaptured Mekelle, the regional capital, as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed withdrew federal forces and announced a unilateral ceasefire after eight months of brutal war. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to William Davison, senior analyst for Ethiopia, about this dramatic turnaround, its immediate fallout and what may come next. William explains how Tigrayan forces managed to consolidate control in rural areas, build up forces thanks in large part to popular support and launch attacks on Tigrayan cities and towns. They look at the balance of power in Tigray today and the likelihood of further fighting between Tigrayan forces and those of Eritrea, who were fighting alongside the Ethiopian army. They also examine prospects for a Tigrayan offensive to capture back disputed territory currently held by the Amhara, another of Ethiopia’s ethnic groups. William explains how Abiy has portrayed the withdrawal of government troops and the potential implications of their retreat for his popularity in the rest of Ethiopia. They also discuss the importance of getting aid in and what international actors should focus on in the days ahead. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jun 30, 2021 · 27 min
Somaliland’s Elections and Struggle to Break Free
Somaliland is enjoying a boost following parliamentary elections at the end of May that resulted in a surprise victory for the opposition. Dr. Mohamed Farah Hersi joins Alan Boswell to explain what this changing political dynamic means for the country as it continues its quest for recognition as an independent country. They discuss the strong bonds that hold Somaliland together in pursuit of external recognition, and how clan identity affects its national politics. Dr. Hersi also talks about the changes that need to be made in the negotiations between Somaliland and Somalia to make progress possible and how Somaliland has used its geographic position to secure alliances with the United Arab Emirates and Taiwan, altering the dynamics of the Horn of Africa region. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jun 16, 2021 · 34 min
Ethiopia’s Rocky Transitional Election
Ethiopia is set to hold delayed elections on 21 June, a milestone that – before the ongoing war in the Tigray region – many observers believed would be a litmus test for the transition under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Violent flare-ups in various parts of the country, a poll boycott by some opposition groups and postponed votes in several locations all cast a shadow over the landmark election. Joining Alan for a discussion on what to expect from the process under these circumstances is William Davison, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Ethiopia. He unpacks the rising instability, including the growing insurgencies in the Benishangul-Gumuz and Oromia regions. They discuss how political parties are vying for support amid a surge in ethno-nationalism and the fierce debate over the constitutional structure. They also flesh out different post-election scenarios for Ethiopia given the many outstanding questions about how to resolve the country’s deep rifts. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jun 8, 2021 · 36 min
Bonus Episode: The Insurrection in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado (from the Crisis Group podcast Hold Your Fire!)
In this episode of Crisis Group's podcast Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and guest co-host Comfort Ero, our Interim Vice President and Africa Program Director, talk to Crisis Group’s Deputy Africa Director Dino Mahtani about the insurrection unfolding in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado region. The militants - known locally as al-Shabab, and now labelled by the U.S. as a branch of the Islamic State - have been terrorising the population for years now without clearly stating their demands. Dino talks about who they really are and what their interests might be. He also discusses the Southern African Development Community (SADC) meeting in Maputo coming up in two weeks’ time, when the bloc plans to lobby for the deployment of a regional force, amid growing fears that the conflict could spread beyond the borders of Mozambique. Dino unpacks the government’s response to al-Shabab, its turn to Rwanda for military support as it attempts to diversify its security partners, and what the next steps should be. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jun 2, 2021 · 34 min
The Court Ruling That Just Upended Kenyan Politics
In May, the High Court in Kenya overturned President Uhuru Kenyatta’s plan to make significant changes to the 2010 constitution, seen as one of the most progressive in Africa. Willy Mutunga, former Chief Justice of Kenya, talks to Alan Boswell about the court’s decision against the proposed referendum, also known as the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), and the political significance of the ruling, which emphasises the sovereignty of the Kenyan people. He explains why the independence of the Kenyan judiciary is at a crossroads, the pressures he faced as Chief Justice, and answers to critics who say Kenya’s court is “too activist”. They also discuss whether the government’s appeal of the BBI court case can succeed, and whether the government could still organise a referendum before the 2022 presidential elections. He also discusses whether he is concerned about a peaceful transfer of power or constitutional backsliding during the next administration. He then reflects on what it will take for younger generations to imagine and create a new Kenya. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
May 18, 2021 · 30 min
What's Driving Sudan and Ethiopia Apart?
Armed clashes along the al-Fashaga border between Sudan and Ethiopia are the latest twist in the up-and-down relationship between the two neighbouring African juggernauts. The border dispute, rooted in historical disagreements but now inflamed by the deterioration in ties between the two countries’ new leaders, could escalate into a regional crisis and is deepened by the recent pivot of Khartoum towards Cairo amidst Sudan’s concerns over Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project. Annette Weber, senior fellow with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, points to a loss in trust between the new governments in both Sudan and Ethiopia, the lack of effective communication channels between them and Addis Ababa’s new approach to the region as the main causes for the recent fallout. She talks about Sudan’s and Ethiopia’s diverging views on the soft border at al-Fashaga, the ongoing GERD dispute and the worrying rise of militias in both countries. She also discusses the future of Ethiopia’s recent alliance with Eritrea and the unclear fate of regional multilateralism. They then examine the EU’s new strategy towards the region and how U.S. re-engagement might affect the European approach. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
May 5, 2021 · 28 min
Somalia's Dangerous Impasse
Tensions have been rising in Somalia since President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmajo” failed to hold elections in February. After Farmajo moved to extend his term by two years, the ongoing political crisis triggered clashes between security forces loyal to the president and the opposition in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. This turn of events forced President Farmajo to backtrack, says political and security analyst Mohamed Mubarak, but inherent lack of trust among stakeholders means the dispute continues. Mohamed says the crisis proves Somalia doesn’t really have a national army, as clans still hold the most sway. Despite these challenges, there is no political will to make much-needed changes to Somalia’s broader federal structure. He tells Alan that Somalia, pressured by the international community, has focused on anti-piracy and counter-terrorism operations, setting aside fundamental security issues and institution building. They also discuss why Al-Shabaab may be winning the battle for legitimacy, the barriers to seeking any political settlement with the group, the risk of civil war should the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) soon withdraw, and where Somalia’s state-building project should go from here. For more information: Read our recent Q&A: Why Somalia’s Electoral Crisis Has Tipped into Violence The Horn S2 E10: Somalia's Election Crisis The Horn S1 E22: Somali Politics Heat up, Again Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Apr 21, 2021 · 26 min
Inside the Region’s Struggle for Peace in South Sudan
In September 2018, South Sudan signed a peace accord to end five years of civil war. However, the agreement remains extremely fragile, and over two years later key parts of the unity government between President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar – now Vice President – have not been constituted. According to Betty Bigombe, Uganda’s special envoy to South Sudan, the peace process suffers from an overemphasis on power sharing, a lack of political will and a region that has placed the peace process on the backburner. Betty joins Alan Boswell to examine the mediation process led by East Africa’s Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and why some claim the South Sudan people don’t own the deal. They also look at the role of Uganda and Sudan, former foes, in reconciling the two main parties. Betty tells Alan that a more inclusive national dialogue is needed that brings together the political elites, civil society and refugees. They also discuss whether IGAD should continue to lead the mediation process, the role of the African Union, and the future of Kiir and Machar. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our South Sudan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Apr 6, 2021 · 45 min
What Eritrea Wants
The international community has long viewed Eritrea as a pariah state, yet the country’s influence is rising again in the turbulent Horn of Africa region. For more than a decade, Ethiopia and the West pushed the country’s regime under President Isaias Afwerki into survival mode. But with the political transition in Ethiopia, and Eritrea’s alliances with Gulf powers across the Red Sea, Asmara is once again looking to shape the region in its favour. Harry Verhoeven, a scholar on international politics in Africa, joins Alan Boswell to unpack Eritrea’s rising influence in the region and what it means for regional order and stability. They discuss President Isaias Afwerki’s survival techniques and his ties with the Gulf states. Harry also describes the complex alliance between Asmara and Addis Ababa amid the ongoing conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, and whether President Afwerki could be willing to withdraw Eritrean troops from Ethiopia for tactical purposes. They also look at escalating tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia and where the shifting power relations in the Horn of Africa are headed. For more information: The Horn S2 E3: Eritrea's One-man Rule. Harry Verhoeven and Philip Roessler, Why Comrades Go to War: Liberation Politics and the Outbreak of Africa's Deadliest Conflict, Oxford University Press. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mar 25, 2021 · 37 min
Bonus Episode : Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis and Horn of Africa Politics (from the Crisis Group podcast Hold Your Fire!)
In this episode of Crisis Group's podcast Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood, Crisis Group’s interim president, and guest host Comfort Ero, our interim vice president and Africa Program director, talk to Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, about the fighting in Tigray and its implications for regional politics. Murithi sheds light on the calculations of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, rebel Tigray leaders and Eritrea, which has also sent forces into Tigray. He talks through the Horn of Africa’s evolving geopolitics, growing friction between Ethiopia and its neighbours, and the state of play of both Ethiopia’s and Sudan’s transitions. He looks at what continental and world leaders need to do to end the Tigray crisis and calm escalating regional tensions. For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mar 23, 2021 · 30 min
Tanzania's Opposition Leader Tundu Lissu on Politics after Magufuli
The death of President Magufuli, a populist authoritarian and COVID-denier, officially from a heart failure, raises questions about whether newly sworn-in President Samia Suluhu Hassan will change course or maintain her predecessor’s authoritarian track. Tundu Lissu, Tanzania’s main opposition leader, joins Alan Boswell this week to discuss the late President Magufuli’s legacy and policies in Tanzania. Tundu says President Magufuli’s death is an opportunity to reverse trends and ensure accountability in the country. He expects Samia Suluhu Hassan, Tanzania’s first woman president, to reverse the government’s response to Covid-19, as well as a variety of other policies pursued by Magufuli over the past five years. Tundu tells Alan his biggest fear is the influence of the security forces, which amassed tremendous power under Magufuli, and hopes for a general improvement in the political atmosphere to secure democracy in Tanzania. He also answers Alan’s question on whether he plans to run again for president in the next elections. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mar 10, 2021 · 25 min
What Does Reconciliation among Gulf States Mean for Africa?
The Gulf dispute over Qatar’s foreign policy has spilt over into the Horn of Africa. In trying to shape the regional landscape in their respective favours, Gulf states have intensified proxy conflicts in the Horn of Africa and Libya and made them harder to resolve. The January 2021 al-Ula declaration ends the blockade of Qatar and promises an end to the rift between them, at least formally, but will it lead to a de-escalation of their rivalries abroad? Elham Fakhro, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for the Gulf States, joins Alan Boswell to discuss how Gulf states’ reconciliation might impact their foreign policy choices in the Horn of Africa, in particular. She unpacks the vested interests they have in the region and how they can engage constructively in countries like Sudan and Somalia. She tells Alan that additional dialogue among Gulf states to further resolve their disputes over foreign policy is still needed and says the upcoming elections in Somalia may be a test of what’s to come. For more information: The Horn S1 E1: Red Sea Rising Read our commentary Resolving the Gulf Crisis outside the Gulf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Feb 23, 2021 · 32 min
Risks of Starvation Rise in Ethiopia's Tigray War
Armed conflict has been raging in Ethiopia's northernmost Tigray region since November and fears are growing that it is on the brink of famine. Sporadic reports trickling out of the chronically food-insecure region paint an alarming picture: hundreds of thousands displaced, essential infrastructure systematically destroyed, widespread atrocities committed and an untold number of civilian deaths. Shrouded by a virtual information blackout, Alex de Waal says the scope of what is yet to emerge is cause for even more concern. The executive director of the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University and author of Mass Starvation: The History and Future of Famine, the renowned Horn of Africa scholar is back with Alan to distill what is known of how the war is unfolding. Having drawn in multiple belligerents, the situation is dire but also complex. Alex underlines that the window of time to avert a full-blown humanitarian disaster is slipping. He discusses what witnesses have told him about the catastrophe, how political will at the highest level can be mobilized to give humanitarian agencies access to stricken regions, what Eritrea’s endgame could be, and what may come of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) now that it has been forced into an insurgency from the mountains. For more information, see our latest briefing: Finding a Path to Peace in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Feb 9, 2021 · 26 min
Uganda After its Troubling Elections
Last month’s elections in Uganda saw President Yoweri Museveni clinch another six years to his rule that began in 1986, a win marred by controversy and violence. The widespread crackdown on the opposition, civil society, and protests prior to the vote was the clearest sign yet that the incumbent regime’s days in power may be numbered. Joining Alan Boswell to take a closer look at what happened and what’s to come in Uganda is Daniel Kalinaki, Africa editor at Nation Media Group and managing editor of The East African. He explains to Alan that a record-low voter turnout and opposition leader Bobi Wine’s popular appeal both indicate that the country’s citizens, particularly the urban youth, are growing disillusioned with the status quo. Together they unpack the big questions this reality raises, including the complicit role of foreign interests in Uganda’s democratic backsliding, the inevitable prospect of succession, and what future political turmoil would mean for the restive region in which Uganda has long been an unusual anchor of relative stability. For more information, read our recent Q&A: Uganda’s Museveni Clings to Power – But Trouble Lies Ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jan 26, 2021 · 28 min
Somalia's Election Crisis
With President Farmajo’s mandate due to end in just two weeks and little consensus on the way forward, a delay in Somalia’s high-stakes elections appears inevitable. Back with Alan to explain why a mid-September agreement on electoral changes has unraveled is Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Somalia. Together they chart the various scenarios the country could be headed toward, taking into account the major issues fuelling tensions between Farmajo, regional states, and political opposition. To steer clear of contestation and resulting unrest further down the line, Omar underlines the need for renewed agreement between the parties on a realistic electoral timeline. He tells Alan that failure to establish a framework for political order in Somalia after 8 February could heighten clan-based grievances, the risks of Al-Shabaab violence, and the new involvement of regional actors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jan 12, 2021 · 35 min
2021 in the Horn of Africa
Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Director Murithi Mutiga joins Alan Boswell to debate which regional conflicts and crises are most prominent on their radars for 2021. From the myriad political and security crises in Ethiopia ahead of elections to the enduring economic woes troubling Sudan’s transition, this year promises to be pivotal. Murithi tells Alan that much hinges on political elites’ capacity for dialogue, compromise, and reform. Recent events have demonstrated how easily unrest can reverberate across borders, so whether our gaze is on who emerges successful out of Somalia’s polls or what Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki is planning, it is how these dynamics overlap that will prove most telling. For more information, explore our work on the Horn of Africa region: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Dec 29, 2020 · 31 min
Replay: Comfort Ero
During our brief season break, we're re-running an earlier episode from Season 2 that new subscribers may have missed. We will be back in January with a brand new line-up!Alan talks to Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director Comfort Ero about how the p...
Dec 16, 2020 · 37 min
America’s (and Biden’s) South Sudan Problem
The U.S. was South Sudan’s most important ally on its path to independence in 2011 and a major player during talks that led to a peace deal in 2015. The agreement collapsed soon after, plunging the country into a wider civil war and a humanitarian crisis that has deepened since. Joining Alan to look back on America’s role in South Sudan and the Obama administration’s struggles to bring peace to the young country is Jon Temin, Africa director at Freedom House and a former State Department official from 2014 to 2017. He reflects on what the U.S. got wrong in its approach to brokering peace once South Sudan achieved statehood, what factors influenced its policy at critical junctures along the way and why the country’s fate ultimately lies in the hands of the South Sudanese people and regional actors. As the incoming Biden administration configures its policy priorities in Africa, they also discuss how these takeaways will likely inform future peacemaking efforts on the continent. For more information, read Jon Temin’s report for the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum and his piece in Foreign Affairs: What the United States Got Wrong in South Sudan. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.