
What did Greenland really cost?
Greenland, Belarus potash and Russian oligarchs: everything has a price this week. What did Washington get from a Greenland defence deal with no end date? And can EU sanctions be bargained with, now they’ve taken Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman off the list? Chapters 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:00:51 The Rifty Backstory 00:02:39 German State Elections: the Left, the AfD and Merz 00:05:46 EU drops two Russian oligarchs from sanctions list 00:07:17 Hostage diplomacy: from Griner to Azerbaijan 00:10:02 Greenland: the 1951 deal v 2026 00:12:40 Trump's price list: Belarus potash 00:14:08 Driving the Suwałki Gap 00:15:35 US troops in the Baltics and Macron's warning 00:16:51 The ICC and Europe's pushback 00:18:22 Diesel, refineries and the Strait of Hormuz 00:19:26 Frog Watch: drones and southern Europe 00:22:41 Frog Watch: a Russian helicopter over Poland 00:25:00 Frog Watch: Migrants, border checks and arson in Tallinn 00:27:05 Belgium's leaked memo and Trump's taste for royalty More information GERMAN STATE ELECTIONS (20 Sept) - In Berlin, Die Linke topped the poll for the first time and is seeking a coalition with the Greens and the SPD. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD won 38.2% to the SPD's 35.5%, but no other party will govern with it. Chancellor Merz's CDU took 4.9%, failing to win seats in a state parliament for the first time since 1949. SPD minister-president Manuela Schwesig is seeking a coalition with the Left and the Greens. She was a leading supporter of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and her government set up a Nord Stream-funded foundation in 2021 to help complete it; after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine she called backing it a mistake. EU SANCTIONS & HOSTAGE DIPLOMACY - Le Monde, Euronews and the FT report that France sought Alisher Usmanov's delisting to free two French citizens (Martin Ryan & Anass Derraz) held in Azerbaijan; Ryan was officially pardoned by Azerbaijani President Aliyev on 23 September, Derraz remains in prison in Baku. Paris cites national security and has not confirmed a link. EU sanctions need unanimity, so any one member state can block renewal. The 22 September deadline covered individual sanctions only; the EU's economic sanctions on Russia were extended separately in June. Viktor Bout, swapped for Brittney Griner in December 2022, was an arms dealer convicted in the US of conspiring to arm Colombia's FARC rebels. Vadim Krasikov, who carried out the 2019 Tiergarten killing in Berlin, was an FSB officer; he was freed in the August 2024 exchange for Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan and Alsu Kurmasheva. GREENLAND - US-Denmark-Greenland Security Agreement was signed on 22 September and enters into force once approved by the Danish and Greenlandic parliaments. No approval by US Congress is required. The text reaffirms the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Denmark. The Svalbard Treaty (originally Spitsbergen Treaty) was signed in 1920; Estonia became a party in 1930. DIESEL - President Trump urged Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries, citing diesel prices; Rubio said Ukrainian strikes had hit American-linked shipping, probably unintentionally. Russia has banned most diesel exports since July after Ukrainian drone strikes cut refinery output. The International Energy Agency says the global diesel shortage reflects both lost Russian exports and Middle East disruption, including through the Strait of Hormuz. FROG WATCH, POLAND - On concrete blocks found on railway line at Jedlanka in eastern Poland on 22 September, Polish prosecutors have ruled out sabotage and are treating the incident as vandalism. Poland’s military says Russian Mi-8 helicopter that crossed from Kaliningrad on 23 September entered about 300m into Polish airspace and stayed for 42 seconds. FROG WATCH, ESTONIA - 3 Latvian citizens have been remanded in Estonia as suspect in the 15 August arson of Tallinn building used by Milrem Robotics. They have not been convicted and prosecutors say sabotage is one line of inquiry. FROG WATCH - MEDITERRANEAN - Reported CIA warning of possible Russian plan to launch drones from merchant ships in Mediterranean comes from Spanish newspaper El Mundo (23 Sept), citing a Lithuanian defence source. The report has not been independently confirmed and Italy says it has received no such warning. BELGIUM’S LEAKED MEMO - The leaked Belgian foreign ministry paper, dated October 2025 and reported by the FT (24 Sept), says the US is no longer the ally it was and notes Trump's regard for royalty; King Philippe and Queen Mathilde have since visited the US. On 20 September Trump said his proposed Triumphal Arch would house drones, snipers and sniper ammunition; it has not been built. CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion) Producer Lucy Antonatos © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved
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