The Continental Rift · Yesterday · 36 min

Spies & Stampedes

Who are Europe’s best spies? And did any of them predict last weekend’s crisis in Ceuta? A European President and an American comedian disentangle the migration mess, European pile-on and American meddling that contributed to the Crisis in Ceuta. Show Notes Spies 1 - this was work done by the French Magazine L’Express and our discussion reflected that article. The original (pay-walled, English version) is here: https://www.lexpress.eu/intelligence/mi6-dgse-ukraine-lexpress-reveals-an-unprecedented-ranking-of-europes-best-spies-08-02-2026-WUF45U7QQZGKZJ3NJJKEVJCTKI/ Spies 2 - if you want to download the Annual Report by the Estonian Foreiugn Intelligence Agency referenced by Toomas, you can find it here: https://valisluureamet.ee/en.html Spanish Supreme Court Ruling - another factor we did not have time to get into is that on 29 June, Spain's Supreme Court ruled that the fast-track “hot return” procedure — handing people straight back across the border with no formal process — can only be used on those crossing Ceuta and Melilla's physical land barriers, like the fences. It was a narrow, technical ruling. The Spanish government says trafficking networks then misrepresented it — including in viral TikTok videos — as “anyone arriving by sea can't be deported.” The ruling did not say that. Ceuta’s history - Portugal captured Ceuta in 1415, 77 years before Columbus sailed. It passed to the Spanish crown in 1580 and was formally ceded by Portugal in 1668 . Morocco, which claims both cities, became an independent state in its modern form in 1956; the UN does not list Ceuta or Melilla as territories to be decolonised. French politics - Jean-Luc Mélenchon (who attacked the French hard-right leader Marine le Pen) is the founder of La France Insoumise — a hard left party (with no leader), but not the French Communist Party, which is a separate party. LFI has denied it is pro-Putin (it’s critics disagree). Italy’s migrant regularisation - Italy's last big amnesty for irregular migrants (around 207,000 applications) came in 2020, under a previous government. What Meloni's government has done is open the legal front door very wide — work-entry quotas of roughly 450,000 for 2023–25 and around 500,000 more for 2026–28 — while keeping regularisation channels available. European regularisation - The REGINE study (ICMPD, 2009) looked at regularisation programmes 1996 and 2008 — not to the present day, as we said — and found that 17 EU member states ran 43 regularisation programmes, with 4.7 million applicants and at least 3.2 million people regularised. Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Belgium and Portugal ran the largest. Morocco’s Trump Highway - This is country's flagship motorway project. Most of it runs through Western Sahara, the disputed territory whose Moroccan sovereignty Trump recognised in 2020 — which is the entire point of the King’s gesture. The naming was announced days after Morocco's Throne Day, and days before the Ceuta surge. US House Bill - The $40 million for Morocco is real, appropriated foreign aid in a State Department funding bill the House passed 217–209 on 15 July. The language describing Ceuta and Melilla as “located in Moroccan territory” sits in the accompanying committee report — a non-binding document the House did not vote on. It transfers nothing and legally recognises nothing. What it does show is an arm of the US Congress putting Morocco's claim to Spanish territory on paper, two weeks before the migrant surge. Nathalie Tocci - more on her work can be found here: https://www.iai.it/en/institute/experts/nathalie-tocci Chapters 00:00:00 Show Background 00:01:30 Introduction 00:03:15 Spie Agencies ranked 00:06:47 Ceuta - pronunciation 00:07:43 Ceuta - history & Schengen 00:11:46 The pile-on 00:14:20 The Letter 00:16:41 Migration weaponised 00:19:16 Germany & AfD 00:21:29 French reaction 00:24:41 Shuffle right 00:26:28 Conspiracy theories 00:31:14 Eruopean past form 00:33:02 EU's Trumpian Wall? 00:35:35 Credits Youtube @TheContinentalRift (https://www.youtube.com/@TheContinentalRift) Instagram @thecontinentalriftpod (https://www.instagram.com/thecontinentalriftpod/) X @ContRiftShow (https://x.com/ContRiftShow) CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion) Executive Producer Fred Casella © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

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Who are Europe’s best spies? And did any of them predict last weekend’s crisis in Ceuta?

A European President and an American comedian disentangle the migration mess, European pile-on and American meddling that contributed to the Crisis in Ceuta.

Show Notes

Spies 1 - this was work done by the French Magazine L’Express and our discussion reflected that article. The original (pay-walled, English version) is here: https://www.lexpress.eu/intelligence/mi6-dgse-ukraine-lexpress-reveals-an-unprecedented-ranking-of-europes-best-spies-08-02-2026-WUF45U7QQZGKZJ3NJJKEVJCTKI/

Spies 2 - if you want to download the Annual Report by the Estonian Foreiugn Intelligence Agency referenced by Toomas, you can find it here: https://valisluureamet.ee/en.html

Spanish Supreme Court Ruling - another factor we did not have time to get into is that on 29 June, Spain's Supreme Court ruled that the fast-track “hot return” procedure — handing people straight back across the border with no formal process — can only be used on those crossing Ceuta and Melilla's physical land barriers, like the fences. It was a narrow, technical ruling. The Spanish government says trafficking networks then misrepresented it — including in viral TikTok videos — as “anyone arriving by sea can't be deported.” The ruling did not say that.

Ceuta’s history - Portugal captured Ceuta in 1415, 77 years before Columbus sailed. It passed to the Spanish crown in 1580 and was formally ceded by Portugal in 1668 . Morocco, which claims both cities, became an independent state in its modern form in 1956; the UN does not list Ceuta or Melilla as territories to be decolonised.

French politics - Jean-Luc Mélenchon (who attacked the French hard-right leader Marine le Pen) is the founder of La France Insoumise — a hard left party (with no leader), but not the French Communist Party, which is a separate party. LFI has denied it is pro-Putin (it’s critics disagree).

Italy’s migrant regularisation - Italy's last big amnesty for irregular migrants (around 207,000 applications) came in 2020, under a previous government. What Meloni's government has done is open the legal front door very wide — work-entry quotas of roughly 450,000 for 2023–25 and around 500,000 more for 2026–28 — while keeping regularisation channels available.

European regularisation - The REGINE study (ICMPD, 2009) looked at regularisation programmes 1996 and 2008 — not to the present day, as we said — and found that 17 EU member states ran 43 regularisation programmes, with 4.7 million applicants and at least 3.2 million people regularised. Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Belgium and Portugal ran the largest.

Morocco’s Trump Highway - This is country's flagship motorway project. Most of it runs through Western Sahara, the disputed territory whose Moroccan sovereignty Trump recognised in 2020 — which is the entire point of the King’s gesture. The naming was announced days after Morocco's Throne Day, and days before the Ceuta surge.

US House Bill - The $40 million for Morocco is real, appropriated foreign aid in a State Department funding bill the House passed 217–209 on 15 July. The language describing Ceuta and Melilla as “located in Moroccan territory” sits in the accompanying committee report — a non-binding document the House did not vote on. It transfers nothing and legally recognises nothing. What it does show is an arm of the US Congress putting Morocco's claim to Spanish territory on paper, two weeks before the migrant surge.

Nathalie Tocci - more on her work can be found here: https://www.iai.it/en/institute/experts/nathalie-tocci