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The Competent Investor

Tom Bodrovics

The Competent Investor brings you deep-dive conversations with the world's top investors, economists, and market strategists. Every episode unpacks the macro forces shaping markets, reveals actionable insights, and delivers conversations that compound your understanding of where capital is flowing.

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  • Yesterday · 41 min

    Doomberg: Russia Still Holds The Key to Inflation and Millions Freezing this Winter

    In this conversation, Tom Bodrovics and Doomberg explore the geopolitical and energy market implications of the ongoing Ukraine war, with a focus on the diesel crisis and Europe’s precarious energy dependence. Doomberg argues that the primary driver of elevated diesel prices is not the Iran conflict but Ukraine’s systematic attacks on Russian refinery assets, which reduce global refining capacity and tighten distillate markets. He notes the irony that Europe, heavily reliant on diesel imports, is among the most exposed to these price spikes. While the world is adapting through higher refinery utilization and alternative supply deals, the situation remains fragile, with inventories low and any further disruption potentially triggering a severe crisis. The discussion then turns to the broader strategic miscalculation of treating Russia as anything less than a great power. Doomberg emphasizes that Russia’s energy leverage, nuclear arsenal, and industrial capacity make it a formidable adversary, and that Europe’s decision to sever energy ties without viable alternatives was strategically naive. He predicts that the war’s outcome will be determined by military imposition, not diplomacy, and points to signs of Ukraine’s degrading air defenses as a harbinger of a potential phase shift in the conflict. The threat of escalation, including the risk of false-flag attacks on civilian aircraft, underscores the dangerous volatility of the current moment. Full Video is available on Substack Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:24 - Diesel Crisis and Molecular Risks 00:04:19 - Russia Energy Dependency Examined 00:11:14 - Ukraine War Geopolitics and Endgame 00:14:44 - Air Defenses & Mental Models 00:25:00 - Escalation and False Flag Risks 00:27:04 - Iran Sanctions and China Leverage 00:39:03 - Canada Energy Alignment Strategy 00:40:48 - Substack Subscribers 00:44:54 - Narratives & Bovine Excrement 00:54:24 - Investor Positioning and AI Risks 00:55:55 - Finding Satisfaction Guest: Doomberg — Head Writer For The Doomberg Team and Creator of the Doomberg Substack Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems. Substack X Website 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • August 25 · 1 hr 37 min

    Chase Taylor: Destruction of Confidence | Bessent's Bond Market Intervention

    Chase Taylor, global macro strategist at Pinecone Macro, analyzed the recent Treasury bond market intervention, characterizing it as an unforced error that inadvertently signaled a shift toward yield curve control. The initial modest buyback program quickly escalated into a commitment to use the Treasury General Account to cap long-term yields, undermining the Federal Reserve’s earlier stance and damaging joint credibility. This intervention, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions, has intensified inflationary pressures. Taylor highlighted diesel prices as a critical driver, with inventories at 1996 lows and high crack spreads feeding into core inflation through transportation costs. He also warned of El Niño’s potential to disrupt global agriculture, particularly sugar, coffee, and cocoa, adding another layer of price pressure. On geopolitics, Taylor argued that economic sanctions against Iran are unlikely to force surrender, as the country has long adapted to such measures through smuggling and alternative trade networks. He noted Iran’s escalation dominance, meaning it can retaliate in ways that inflict greater economic pain on the US, such as disrupting energy infrastructure. This dynamic could accelerate capital outflows and eventually lead to capital controls, especially if inflation remains sticky. In this environment, gold emerges as a clear beneficiary, repricing higher as the Treasury’s actions signal a willingness to inflate away debt. Despite Western investor apathy, gold’s monetary properties make it a compelling hedge. Taylor also discussed structural weaknesses in US manufacturing and defense, emphasizing the loss of industrial capacity and the politicization of technology, which hampers innovation. He advocated for a disciplined, probabilistic approach to investing, stressing risk management, self-awareness, and the importance of studying cognitive biases. He recommended diversifying internationally and maintaining a rational, non-tribal mindset to navigate the complex macro landscape. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:54 - Bond Market Intervention 00:04:27 - Escalation Traps in Markets 00:10:50 - Inflation Channels and El Nino 00:20:35 - Diesel and Energy Inflation 00:30:20 - SPR and Jet Fuel Issues 00:36:32 - Gold and Precious Metals 00:47:13 - Iran Sanctions Path Forward 01:00:20 - Missile Limitations and Ukraine 01:11:27 - Technology and AI Future 01:17:39 - Thinking and Biases 01:26:03 - Trading Discipline and Risk 01:35:30 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: Chase Taylor — Global Macro Strategist and Editor at Pinecone Macro Chase Taylor is a macro trader and the global macro strategist and editor at Pinecone Macro Research. He recently became Head of Research at Bullwark Capital Management. Chase launched PMR in 2018, where he provides unique macro insights and analysis in a weekly and monthly research product. Chase does not come from Wall Street or business school, but the military. He prides himself on being a self-taught macro thinker and practitioner. Chase started in the Air Force working on B-1 Bombers, but spent most of his career as a geospatial intelligence analyst, working on strategic and tactical intelligence problem sets. He has also worked in acquisitions at a research laboratory focused on rocket propulsion. Chase combines the analytical techniques he learned in the intelligence community with a unique focus on history and nature to create a distinctive macro framework. He combines technical analysis, fundamental changes, and the power of narratives and reflexivity to uncover asymmetric investments. Substack X Website Website iPencil 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • August 21 · 1 hr 7 min

    Chris MacIntosh: Pension Funds and Investors Trapped in the Looming Debt Implosion

    Hedge fund manager Chris MacIntosh offers a stark assessment of the current financial system, arguing it is held together by the immense power to manipulate credit through front-end Treasury yields. This power, however, is reaching its limits. He identifies three interconnected bubbles propped up by this manipulation: the AI-driven equity bubble, a massive private credit bubble, and the foundational sovereign debt bubble. The long end of the bond market, which central banks cannot easily control, is signaling a significant shift, with rising long-term yields threatening to unravel the entire structure. MacIntosh details how the private credit bubble is silently imploding as debt, financed at ultra-low rates, rolls over into a much higher interest rate environment. This is forcing highly leveraged, illiquid funds to gate redemptions, exposing pension funds and retail investors who were unknowingly sold this risk. Simultaneously, the AI bubble is sustained by a passive-capital feedback loop, but the massive CapEx is now being financed with debt rather than equity as free cash flows collapse, a model he deems unsustainable without future profits. He contextualizes these financial dynamics within a broader geopolitical and societal shift, arguing that Western "democracies" are run by competing corporate interests, not elected officials. The dollar-based system, enforced by military might, is waning. Consequently, vested interests are racing to build a replacement control system based on central bank digital currencies and a global surveillance infrastructure, securing key geopolitical chokepoints in the process. Given these converging risks, MacIntosh advocates for a probabilistic investment approach focused on asymmetry and value. He points to the extreme undervaluation of hard assets—commodities and energy—relative to overvalued U.S. equities. Similarly, emerging markets like China present significant opportunity, as negative sentiment is already deeply priced in. Ultimately, he stresses that ignoring these uncomfortable but clear structural problems is a decision in itself, and ownership of tangible, non-manufacturable assets is the logical response to a system prioritizing financialization over fundamental value. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:01:04 - Why Markets Stayed Together 00:03:10 - Three Major Bubbles Identified 00:04:37 - Private Credit Bubble Explored 00:09:46 - AI Bubble and Passive Investing 00:16:50 - Global Capital Allocations 00:21:20 - Value in Commodities and Markets 00:26:10 - Dollar Reserve Currency Future 00:37:46 - Increasing Overt Conflict 00:50:45 - Energy and Diesel Shortages 00:55:43 - Hard Assets and Ownership Guest: Chris MacIntosh — Hedge Fund Manager and Founder of Capitalist Exploits Raised in Southern Africa, Chris Macintosh has since lived and invested from sevent different countries. After a career at top-tier investment banks such as JP Morgan, Lehman, Robert Flemmings and Invesco, Chris became tired of corporate life, and has since built and sold multiple million dollar companies, overseen $35 million into venture capital, all the while investing full time, and managing his own and private client wealth. X Website 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • August 19 · 49 min

    Francis Hunt: Gold Soars as Debt Crumbles | Why Gold Broke Out Today

    Recorded on: August 19, 2026 Your host, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back the market sniper himself Francis Hunt to the show. Francis Hunt is the Renegade Trader, Analyst, and the Founder of The Market Sniper. The discussion centers on a dramatic gold price surge and the underlying debt market distress. Hunt explains that the Federal Reserve is cornered, unable to maneuver as major holders like Japan face a “Hotel California” scenario with U.S. Treasuries unable to sell without triggering a crash, forced instead into repurchase agreements. This debt debasement, he argues, is a Western malaise, with the U.S. as the hegemon suffering most. The crisis is not isolated; the UK gilt market has already seen intervention, and similar pressures are building globally. In this environment, gold becomes the ultimate safe haven, with Hunt detailing a live trade that capitalized on a technical breakout, using his HVF methodology to enter long positions ahead of the news-driven rally. He emphasizes that gold moves first, with silver expected to outperform later once the gold-silver ratio completes a head-and-shoulders pattern. Turning to currencies, Hunt challenges the DXY’s relevance, showing that the dollar has been steadily devaluing against key trade partners like China and Mexico, which better reflect America’s structural deficit. He illustrates true inflation through a “Mars bar index,” demonstrating a 7.5% annual debasement over 31 years, far above official figures. The conversation also touches on soft commodities, with bullish technical setups in cocoa and coffee. Throughout, Hunt advocates for self-reliance, sound money, and using trading opportunities to build wealth and optionality, urging listeners to protect themselves from the coming debt reset by stacking physical precious metals and maintaining integrity and joy in the face of dystopian trends. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:30 - Gold Price Surge Analysis 00:03:00 - Debt & Open Secrets 00:06:30 - U.K. Malaise & Western Debt 00:10:00 - Kospi and Downsides 00:14:30 - Bonds and Finding Exits 00:19:43 - Gold Silver Ratio Patterns 00:25:20 - Dollar Devaluation Insights 00:31:50 - Inflation Mars Bar Index 00:39:49 - Embracing Life 00:43:40 - Soft Commodities Outlook 00:48:50 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: Francis Hunt — Renegade Trader, Analyst, & Founder of The Market Sniper Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade? He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis. Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals. He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders. X X Website YouTube 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • August 11 · 51 min

    Chris Vermeulen: Higher Oil, Dollar, and Interest Rates mean Coming Chaos for the Markets

    Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Chris Vermeulen to the show. Chris Vermeulen is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer at 'The Technical Traders'. Chris discusses the broadening of the stock market, with the MAG 7 stocks losing momentum and money rotating into other sectors like semiconductors and small caps. He sees this as a sign of strength, with the market potentially poised for one more big push higher. Chris analyzes the technical indicators, noting the positive price action, bullish moving average trends, and improving sentiment. Regarding gold and silver, Chris is cautious, viewing the recent rally as a potential bear trap that could quickly reverse. He believes the long-term trends remain bearish, and any further upside will need to break key resistance levels to confirm a shift in the trend. Chris is also closely watching the US dollar, which he believes could continue strengthening, putting further pressure on precious metals. Looking at the broader market, Chris sees potential risks on the horizon, including rising interest rates, inflation, and the possibility of a financial crisis. He believes the best strategy is to remain nimble, following the price trends and being quick to protect capital when necessary. Chris suggests cash and the US dollar as potential defensive positions if a significant market downturn occurs. Overall, Chris maintains a cautious yet opportunistic outlook, ready to adapt his positioning as market conditions evolve. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on price action and trends rather than emotions or biases when navigating the current market environment. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:16 - Market Broadening Beyond Mag 7 00:03:42 - Price Time Sentiment Factors 00:05:54 - Moving Averages Bullish Signals 00:07:08 - Sentiment And FOMO Analysis 00:13:00 - Currency Dollar Trends 00:15:52 - Interest Rates Outlook 00:21:02 - Oil Chart Analysis 00:26:15 - Gold Silver Behavior Shift 00:34:27 - Lumber Economic Indicator 00:41:23 - Recovery Trap Warning 00:45:55 - New Book & Wrap Up Guest: Chris Vermeulen — Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Technical Traders Chris Vermeulen is the Founder & Chief Investment Officer of The Technical Traders and the visionary mind behind Asset Revesting. In his book Asset Revesting – How to Exclusively Hold Assets Rising in Value, Profit During Bear Markets, and Continue Building Wealth in Retirement, he lays out this investment framework. Chris launched his financial career at 16, parlaying his knack for trading and risk management into funding his final year of college, where he earned a business diploma in operations management. By his twenties, he had achieved financial independence as a full-time entrepreneur and trader. After a setback—blowing up a trading account—Chris dedicated himself to treating trading as a business, completing the Trading Strategy Mastery and Trading Is Your Business courses. A technical analysis expert, he devises systematic methods to spot market opportunities and control portfolio risk, rejecting traditional buy-and-hold approaches that cling to depreciating assets. His efficient asset allocation models balance short- and long-term strategies to minimize drawdowns and consistently outperform benchmarks. Those seeking reliable capital preservation and growth turn to his proven techniques. Website X Amazon Books 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • July 28 · 52 min

    David Hunter: Momentum is Driving Straight Up Into a Generational Bust

    David Hunter, Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors, maintains his highly bullish short-term outlook for equities, believing the stock market is in the final stages of a 44-year secular bull market that began in 1982. He anticipates a "melt-up" that could drive the S&P 500 to 10,000 and the NASDAQ to 36,000, representing a 30-35% gain compressed into just a few months. He attributes this potential surge not to new liquidity creation, but to existing capital being deployed as market momentum and shifting investor psychology overcome current cautious narratives. Hunter presents a contrarian view on interest rates, arguing that the recent rise in yields is a counter-trend move tied to oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions with Iran. He expects both oil and bond yields to roll over soon, with the 10-year Treasury yield potentially falling below 4% and eventually to 3%, providing a tailwind for stocks. He also sees gold and silver breaking out of their multi-month consolidation, setting the stage for a steep rally with targets of $7,000 for gold and $200 for silver, potentially topping alongside equities. This melt-up, however, sets the stage for a severe global bust. Hunter warns that the highly leveraged financial system will face a deflationary crash, potentially an 80% decline in equities, as the Federal Reserve, under Chair Warsh, will be slow to provide liquidity. This bust will force the Fed’s hand, leading to massive money printing that ignites the next cycle. That subsequent cycle, he predicts, will be inflationary and commodity-driven, with oil potentially soaring from a bust low of $30 to $500 a barrel, and precious metals seeing even larger gains over the following decade. He advises that the coming bust will present a generational buying opportunity in commodities. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:20 - Melt-Up Thesis Update 00:04:19 - 44-Year Bull Market Drivers 00:10:50 - Fed Policy and Liquidity 00:16:47 - Liquidity Catalyst Discussion 00:20:20 - Oil & Market Psychology 00:27:29 - Inflation Fighting and Rates 00:31:48 - U.S. War Economics 00:35:23 - Melt-Up and Metals 00:43:00 - Gold and S&P Ratio 00:45:04 - Housing Market Correction 00:48:10 - Investment Strategies and ETFs 00:49:45 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: David Hunter — Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd. X 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • July 24 · 1 hr 5 min

    Eric Yeung: Deciphering China's Master Plan For Gold with Vince Lanci

    Your host Tom Bodrovics, welcomes investor Eric Yeung, and Gold Fix partner Vince Lanci to discuss recent structural changes in China’s gold market, arguing that reports of China ending retail gold trading are inaccurate. Yeung clarifies that as of July 24, Chinese commercial banks are halting leveraged and forward gold contracts for retail customers on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). This move does not eliminate these instruments but relocates them to the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and the new Hong Kong Gold Hub. The goal is to solidify the SGE as a predominantly physical delivery exchange, potentially moving from 70% to over 90% physical delivery, while speculative activity migrates to more appropriate venues. The conversation frames this as a deliberate chess move by China to prepare its domestic market for a larger international role. By tightening the SGE and channeling liquidity to Hong Kong—which has no capital controls—China aims to project its massive physical gold demand globally and establish gold as a high-quality liquid asset (HQLA) for international collateral, offering an alternative to US Treasury bonds. This reorganization is expected to widen arbitrage opportunities between the SGE and SHFE, further sucking physical gold from Western markets into China. The participants highlight that Western banks are not being sidelined but are actively participating in this shift, with institutions like J.P. Morgan and Citibank becoming members of the new Hong Kong clearing entity. They contrast China’s methodical, action-oriented approach with the West’s tendency to issue white papers without immediate implementation. The discussion also touches on central bank buying, noting that China’s official and OTC gold purchases remain robust, supporting prices, while Western retail investors remain absent, likely waiting for a market dip. The overarching theme is that a controlled migration of the global gold market’s center of gravity from West to East is underway, with China carefully building the infrastructure to dominate physical gold pricing and liquidity. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:50 - China Gold Contract Changes 00:05:14 - SGE House in Order 00:07:23 - Market Structure Changing 00:10:20 - Pricing Power Moving East 00:12:13 - New CME Paper Contract 00:14:35 - Market Reorganization Explained 00:16:48 - Arbitrage Opportunities Discussed 00:23:25 - Western Banks Entering Asia 00:26:40 - Old vs New Shopping Mall 00:37:14 - US Gold Revaluation Talk 00:46:25 - Gold Alternative to Treasuries 00:51:43 - Central Bank Gold Buying 00:57:28 - Retail Investors Absent 01:01:35 - Concluding Thoughts Vince Links Substack | https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/ | X | https://x.com/Sorenthek | Zerohedge | https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfc | LinkedIN | https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/ | X-Bullion | https://x.com/boobsbullion Guest: Eric Yeung — Investor and Former Contract Manufacturer In China X 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • July 23 · 1 hr 14 min

    Luke Gromen: China’s Quiet Domination During the US’s Middle East Distraction

    Luke Gromen, president of Forest For The Trees, discussed the challenging fiscal and monetary landscape facing the US once again with your host Tom Bodrovics. With national debt at $39.5 trillion and rising rates, Federal Reserve Chair Worsh confronts a constrained choice: allow treasury market dysfunction or weaken the dollar to manage mounting debt. Gromen argued that shifting issuance to the front end, including discussions around stablecoins, effectively cash-finances deficits, which is inherently inflationary. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent is embracing Hamiltonian economics—high tariffs, increased domestic production, and a neutral reserve asset—as echoed by other administration officials, though this shift demands massive deficits, higher taxes, and capital controls that threaten dollar reserve status. The conversation highlighted China’s strategic advantages, including its rapid EV adoption and ability to reduce oil demand during conflicts like the Iran situation, which benefits China by weakening Western economies and pushing global trade toward its systems. Gromen emphasized that US reindustrialization is a costly, decades-long endeavor made harder by a lost manufacturing base and skilled workforce. He pointed to gold as a key beneficiary, noting China’s moves to shift citizens into physical gold and regulatory signals from Western banks, all suggesting a coming significant price rise. For investors, Gromen recommended buying gold, selling long-dated treasuries, and considering electrical infrastructure equities, Japanese industrials, and gold miners, which offer strong cash flow yields and stand to benefit from prolonged geopolitical and economic restructuring. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:01:20 - Fed Choices on Inflation 00:03:18 - Treasury Market Dysfunction Risks 00:05:40 - Stablecoins Financing Deficits 00:07:45 - US China Geopolitical Competition 00:12:01 - Hamiltonian Economics Explained 00:17:47 - Reshoring Costs and Feasibility 00:23:28 - Iran Conflict Oil Impacts 00:35:10 - China Strategic Benefits 00:54:30 - China & Gold Trading 01:02:00 - Equity Valuations 01:05:20 - Bitcoin Thoughts 01:09:00 - Action Items & Wrap-Up Guest: Luke Gromen — President and Founder of FFTT Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest's widely-read weekly summary ("Heard in the Midwest") for the firm's clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources. In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC's flagship weekly research summary piece ("Straight from the Source") for the firm's customers. In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC ("Forest for the Trees"), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks. Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003. X Website 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • July 16 · 1 hr 5 min

    Rick Rule: Why the Metals Aren't Dead and When I'm Buying More

    Rick Rule shared his observations from his recent Rule Symposium investment conference, noting a stark contrast in sentiment between different types of precious metals investors. Seasoned, wealthy participants who save in gold welcomed the 30% price decline as a buying opportunity, while newer adherents were unnerved. Among the high-quality exhibitors, there was uniform optimism, with the best companies and projects finding ample access to capital despite a widely advertised shortage in the junior space. This capital is increasingly coming from sophisticated sources like majors and family offices, not momentum-chasing tourists. Rule predicted a coming surge in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) driven by the need for major mining companies to buy sustainability and growth after years of underinvestment and capital discipline. He explained that declining margins from rising input costs and past high-grading practices will force companies to seek pipeline growth through acquisitions, creating significant opportunities for speculators who can identify likely targets. Regarding near-term gold prices, he was cautious, citing a strong US dollar and higher nominal interest rates as headwinds that will likely persist, making dollar-denominated savings superficially attractive. He stressed that the CPI is an unreliable measure of true inflation, as real costs for items like energy and housing are rising much faster than official figures suggest. For speculators, Rule emphasized avoiding the 85% of essentially valueless junior companies by doing hard work. His primary screen is to invest only with management teams that are part of the serially successful 1%, and to ask them the single most important unanswered question about their asset and how they plan to test it. He also discussed long-term structural underinvestment in the energy sector, highlighting a future supply shortage in oil and the growing certainty around uranium as a baseload power source, leading to his bullish outlook on these sectors. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:50 - Conference Sentiment on Metals 00:06:42 - Quality Companies Access Capital 00:09:47 - M&A Trends in Mining Sector 00:18:00 - Worthless Juniors Phenomenon 00:20:14 - Gold Acting as Risk Asset 00:24:54 - Inflation CPI and Dollar 00:26:45 - Education Versus Emotional Investing 00:31:15 - Portfolio Building Strategies 00:37:05 - Warrants & Private Placements 00:40:00 - Eggs and Basket Positioning 00:44:40 - Energy Shocks and Nuclear 00:53:35 - Battle Bank Services Explained 00:58:39 - Rule Symposium Recordings 01:04:00 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: Rick Rule — Investor, Speculator, Founder & CEO of Rule Investment Media Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors. Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water. X Website YouTube Classroom Battle Bank 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • July 14 · 57 min

    Rory Johnston: Global Oil Market Chaos - 3 Factors Making For a Larger Energy Crisis

    Tom Bodrovics welcomes back commodity market specialist Rory Johnston for his analysis of the volatile state of the global oil market, focusing on the Strait of Hormuz, Chinese demand, and refining capacity disruptions. Johnston explains that following a recent memorandum of understanding, there was a temporary surge in oil transits through Hormuz as stranded tankers were released, creating a short-lived mini-glut that depressed prices. However, this flow has since collapsed again due to renewed kinetic attacks between Iran and the United States, effectively closing the strait once more and tightening supply. A central theme is the unexpected role of China as a "swing demander." Johnston details how China abruptly slashed its seaborne import demand by approximately 5 million barrels a day, likely through a combination of reduced refinery runs, feedstock substitution, and the release of strategic product stocks. This massive, policy-driven swing cushioned the market from a severe price spike, preventing the demand destruction that would have otherwise been necessary. This new dynamic positions China as a powerful counterpart to OPEC's supply management. The discussion also highlights a critical disconnect between crude oil and refined product markets. Widespread Ukrainian drone attacks have knocked out a significant portion of Russia's refining capacity, forcing Moscow to ban diesel exports and even import fuel. Combined with other factors, this has driven diesel crack spreads to historic highs, with diesel priced at nearly double crude oil. This situation creates a paradox where crude markets can be weak due to a lack of refining demand, while product markets face extreme tightness. Johnston argues that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve remains a vital policy tool, not merely for import cover but as a source of discretionary, rapid-response supply. He contends that the market's inability to quickly self-correct validates the need for such reserves. Looking ahead, he expects prices to move higher in the short term due to renewed supply disruptions and depleted stockpiles, but maintains that a structural oversupply and a potential glut still anchor the medium-term outlook, predicting a bumpy road for oil markets over the next 18 months. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:22 - Hormuz flows post-MOU 00:04:30 - Pipeline and storage dynamics 00:09:11 - Renewed tensions impact 00:11:40 - Price and positioning analysis 00:16:20 - Demand elasticity China role 00:25:13 - Demand & SPR 00:32:13 - Russia refining capacity loss 00:41:42 - Market future outlook 00:47:15 - Siberia Drone Strike 00:48:03 - The Road Ahead 00:52:10 - Peak oil thesis debate 00:56:25 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: Rory Johnston — Commodity Market Research - Specializing in Oil & Gas Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.). Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors. Substack X 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • July 9 · 21 min

    Melody Wright: America's Affordability Crisis is Building into a Crash in 2026

    Tom welcomes Melody Wright, a housing analyst and strategist to the show. Melody describes the U.S. housing market as entering its fourth year of a "frozen" state, with combined annual sales volumes comparable to 2008 levels despite a 20% population increase. National statistics mask significant regional disparities: home prices are declining in the South and West, while the Northeast and Midwest are beginning to weaken. This stagnation stems from a severe affordability crisis, where median home prices far exceed the sustainable benchmark of three times household median income, inflated by years of speculation, Airbnb investment, and treating housing as a casino rather than shelter. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:16 - Housing Market Changes 00:04:04 - Sales Decline Analysis 00:05:54 - Explaining Market Drop Causes 00:09:40 - Land Speculation Cycle 00:15:32 - Delinquency Concerns Rising Guest: Melody Wright — Strategist, Writer, Technologist and GFC1 Survivor A 24-year BFSI veteran, Melody was recently named as one of Mortgage Women Magazine's Women of Technology and is a contributing writer to multiple publications. Her 2023 article in HousingWire entitled “Debunking the Housing Inventory Myth,” created controversy and sparked debate in the industry and amongst the investor community as housing analysts attributed low sales to inventory issues. Wright presciently argued that the depressed housing market was due to affordability issues and changing trends in how people buy and sell homes. Melody Wright began her mortgage career at GMAC ResCap (RFC) in 2006 and helped manage the historic ResCap bankruptcy. After leaving ResCap and before joining the FinTech revolution, she focused on operational effectiveness at multiple large, nonbank mortgage companies. Melody launched her own strategy and technology company in 2022, Huringa, which assists the investor and industry community with navigating the ever-changing macroeconomic landscape utilizing market data and comprehensive, integrated technology solutions. X Substack YouTube Spotify 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • July 8 · 25 min

    Jaime Carrasco: Gold | Why Central Banks Continue Buying in an Uncertain Time

    In this interview, your host Tom Bodrovics and senior portfolio manager Jaime Carrasco analyze the recent volatility in precious metals, framing it as a typical and expected part of a secular bull market driven by a fundamental global monetary shift. Carrasco argues that gold is money and everything else is credit, with the current fiat currency system in terminal decline. He points to rising global interest rates not as an attractive yield but as a signal of bond market instability, exacerbated by soaring government debt and aging populations. This environment is devaluing all fiat currencies, which is why central banks worldwide are aggressively buying physical gold. Carrasco contrasts the extreme overvaluation in tech and AI sectors, exemplified by SpaceX's potential valuation, with the undervalued gold and silver mining sector. He notes that high-quality producers are generating strong free cash flow, increasing dividends, and buying back shares, while also consolidating the industry through acquisitions. This creates a massive opportunity, as institutional and retail ownership of precious metals remains near historic lows. A core part of his strategy involves playing the gold-to-silver ratio, which he believes will revert from its current level toward the historical mining ratio, driven by a structural supply deficit and growing industrial demand for silver in technology and green energy. The central theme is the importance of disciplined, long-term asset allocation rather than emotional trading. Carrasco recommends a minimum 30% portfolio allocation to the sector as a hedge against currency devaluation and systemic risk. He emphasizes direct share ownership over ETFs to avoid counterparty risk and focuses on companies with strong management, quality assets in safe jurisdictions, and low production costs. Ultimately, he views the current pullback as a buying opportunity, positioning for a historic wealth transfer as the global monetary system realigns around gold. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:46 - Metals Market Volatility Discussed 00:01:34 - Why Own Gold and Silver 00:02:55 - Rising Interest Rates Impact 00:05:44 - Fiat Currencies Devaluation 00:07:29 - Stock Market Overvaluation Concerns 00:08:44 - Silver for AI Infrastructure 00:12:04 - Historical Market Comparisons 00:18:55 - Physical Share Ownership Benefits 00:28:16 - Gold Silver Ratio Strategy 00:32:21 - Silver Supply Deficit Analysis 00:34:22 - Sector Underownership Reasons 00:40:23 - Dividend Strategy in Producers 00:47:56 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: Jaime Carrasco — Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch. Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies. Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies. "Like one's financial wealth, sailing is not about controlling the wind, but rather about adjusting the sails." X LinkedIn Website E-Mail 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • July 1 · 57 min

    John Johnston: Debunking the Tank Bottom Narrative and Oil Prices Going Forward

    Veteran commodities trader John Johnston, also known as JJ, provides a detailed rebuttal to the prevailing narratives of oil market scarcity, arguing that the recent price volatility was a paper-driven phenomenon disconnected from physical realities. He explains that the price spike to $120 in March was fueled by the purchase of 750 million barrels worth of futures contracts in a short period, a massive speculative position that has been unwinding for weeks, pressuring prices. In reality, inventories were at near-record highs entering the conflict, with little actual disruption to supply. The US itself is structurally oversupplied, producing millions of barrels per day more than it consumes, while global proven reserves stand at a staggering 1.7 trillion barrels, rendering talk of shortages untenable. Johnston deconstructs the concept of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), revealing that recent drawdowns were not sales but structured repo agreements. The government lent barrels to companies with a 25% payback due in the future, meaning those future obligations have already been hedged in the market. He dismisses the "tank bottom" narrative about Cushing storage as technically misleading, explaining that operational capacity is vastly underreported and that the current system’s high throughput velocity makes a logistical failure highly improbable. This underscores a broader principle: if a narrative is not validated by price action, it should be ignored, as market participants with vested interests, like oil producers, will never claim a surplus. Looking at the broader financial landscape, Johnston notes a shortage of dollars and a strong dollar environment acting as a headwind for commodities, with the market in a disinflationary liquidity contraction. Given this outlook, he sees no significant trade in flat oil price but suggests the long end of the Treasury curve offers value, expecting yields to fall. For equity exposure, he prefers gold miners and pipeline companies, which generate massive cash flows at current commodity prices, allowing him to comfortably weather volatility. Ultimately, he argues that market understanding comes from a position of detached amusement, not anxiety, and that the current oil market is a “great big nothingburger” that should be trading at lower levels. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:16 - Oil Market Perception vs Reality 00:07:30 - Refiner Profits Analysis 00:16:54 - Strategic Petroleum Reserve 00:23:27 - SPR Dynamics 00:27:00 - Tank Bottom Narrative 00:32:22 - Oil Dynamics & Manipulation 00:37:36 - Dollar and Macro Factors 00:44:36 - BLS Data Reliability 00:50:33 - Rates & Investment Strategies 00:55:30 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: John Johnston — Veteran Commodities Trader & Substack Publisher John Johnston, known as JJ, is a veteran commodities trader with 48 years of experience. He began his career as a runner on Wall Street, became an account executive at Conti Commodities in 1976, and in 1977 purchased seats on the NYMEX and COMEX, trading from the pits for the next three decades. Over his career, he worked for firms including Drexel Burnham Lambert, Rudolf Wolff, REFCO, Mann Financial, The Standard Bank of South Africa, and ADM Investor Services. Through his Substack (jj745.substack.com), JJ shares a blend of old-school trading wisdom, selective technical analysis, market history, and lore. As he says, “I never try to be right. I try to be honest. I never want a reader to think what I think. I want the reader to know what I know.” Substack 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • June 30 · 57 min

    Jesse Felder: This is the Type of Setup You Look For as an Investor

    Recorded on: June 29, 2026 Jesse Felder highlights a striking divergence in oil markets: physical inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have plunged to multi-decade lows while demand hits records, yet institutional investors hold the most bearish positioning ever. This contrarian setup is amplified by the AI frenzy, which has drained interest from energy—despite the sector’s strong five-year performance. Insider buying in exploration and production (E&P) companies and an absence of commercial hedging signal confidence in sustainably higher prices. Felder argues that a decade of underinvestment due to capital flowing elsewhere, first to shale, then to ESG, now to AI has constrained supply, laying the groundwork for an oil supercycle targeting $120/barrel. Turning to gold, Felder notes that a needed correction has brought prices back toward levels suggested by real rates, with speculative froth easing. A pivot from the Federal Reserve toward rate cuts—should economic weakness emerge—could reignite a bull run. He warns that new Fed Chair Warsh’s attempt to walk back dovish policies and market handholding may be thwarted by the economy’s immense dependence on asset prices and record margin debt, which, as a share of M2, now rivals March 2000 extremes. The AI-driven equity rally is increasingly fragile. The Magnificent Seven’s once-dominant moats have eroded as they compete in overlapping fields, while free cash flows for hyperscalers have evaporated. The emergence of open-source Chinese AI models—offering comparable performance at a tiny fraction of the cost—threatens to slash demand for expensive compute. With training still accounting for most chip spending, any pullback in frontier model development could collapse semiconductor demand just as South Korea plans massive new supply. This dispersion and leverage echo past speculative peaks. To navigate these cross-currents, Felder emphasizes broad diversification, adding real assets, energy, and precious metals to traditional portfolios. Tactically leaning into out-of-favor areas with strong fundamental stories can provide resilience as the capital cycle rotates away from the most overcrowded trades. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:46 - Iran War and Oil Markets 00:04:20 - Gold Leading Commodity Prices 00:05:50 - SPR Refilling and Demand 00:12:47 - OPEC Supply Dynamics 00:18:57 - Attractive E&P Companies 00:21:53 - Precious Metals and Gold Outlook 00:26:29 - Fed Policy and Inflation Risks 00:36:25 - MAG7 and AI Profitability 00:43:35 - Cost of Compute & Open Models 00:49:05 - AI Bubble Popping 00:52:20 - Semis & Korea Performance 00:53:30 - Safer Investing 00:56:40 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: Jesse Felder — Founder, Editor, and Publisher of The Felder Report Jesse Felder is the Founder, Editor, and Publisher of The Felder Report. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Since moving to Bend, Oregon in 2000 and founding The Felder Report shortly thereafter his writing and research have been featured in major publications and websites like The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Yahoo!Finance, Business Insider, RealVision, Investing.com, and more. Jesse also hosts and produces the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast. X Website Articles 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • June 25 · 51 min

    Robert Sinn: What If the Fed Doesn’t Hike this Year

    Tom welcomes investor Robert Sinn to the show. Robert attributes the recent sharp sell-off in the gold and mining sector primarily to a strengthening US dollar and rising interest rates, describing the current environment as a "perfect negative storm" for junior miners. He notes that sentiment has reached extreme negative levels, comparable to the March 2020 and October 2022 lows, with technical indicators like the gold miner bull index hitting zero. Sinn suggests these oversold conditions, combined with improving seasonal trends, may be setting the stage for a tradable low, presenting buying opportunities for quality miners that have pulled back to key support levels from late 2025. The discussion contrasts current market conditions with the early-year rally, where gold appeared to front-run geopolitical conflict. Sinn argues that the recent inflationary spike is transitory, driven by unique war-related oil disruptions that are now reversing. He contends the greater long-term threat is actually deflation, powered by accelerating technological advances in AI and robotics that could massively expand the supply of goods and services. This outlook informs his view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike rates despite market fears, a misinterpretation that has pressured gold. Sinn emphasizes relying on technical analysis and price action to filter out pervasive market noise and propaganda, especially during the recent Iran conflict. This approach prevented poor, fear-driven decisions in the oil market, which he now views as attractive again after the war premium evaporated. For mining investments, he focuses on catalysts across the sector lifecycle, from free cash flow in seniors to drill results and permitting milestones in juniors, citing Colombia-based Endina Copper’s consistent high-grade intercepts as a compelling example. He remains confident that precious and base metals are in a secular bull market, viewing the current correction as a classic shakeout within a long-term uptrend. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:02:48 - Dollar Impact on Mining 00:05:21 - Gold's January Performance 00:08:50 - Oversold Sentiment Concerns 00:09:48 - Deflationary Pressures Ahead 00:14:48 - Fed Policy Uncertainty 00:18:24 - Dollar Strength Analysis 00:23:40 - Technical Analysis Focus 00:29:23 - Mining Entry Opportunities 00:31:50 - Oil Sector Investments? 00:33:14 - Copper and Metal Fundamentals 00:37:21 - Company Evaluation Criteria 00:47:04 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: Robert Sinn — Investor, Trader, Market Commentator, and Author of the Gold Finger Capital Substack Robert Sinn is a 20+ year market veteran whose research and insights are followed by hedge fund managers, investment professionals and thousands of readers/viewers across the globe. His introduction to the stock market came in 2003 when his Father shared a research note on a company called Northern Dynasty Minerals (NDM). Shares proceeded to rise more than 1000% over the next nine months. Robert was hooked, and the Junior mining sector became an obsession. Across his extensive career Robert has acted as a market participant, commentator and trader performing dozens of site visits, CEO interviews and generating a wealth of research spanning multiple market cycles. X Substack CEO.CA YouTube 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • June 18 · 27 min

    Steve St. Angelo: Gold and Silver Prices Face More Volatility With a Looming Deflationary Crash

    Steve St. Angelo, founder of the SRSRocco Report, discussed a wide range of fundamental factors impacting precious metals, energy, and the broader economy, cautioning against sensationalist price targets. He argued that the recent parabolic surge in gold and silver, driven by massive FOMO, leverage, and specific narratives like a supposed Chinese export ban, has resulted in a necessary consolidation phase. Current margins for miners are historically high, but a correction is likely not over, with technical gaps suggesting potential downside to $3,500 gold and $55 silver, especially during a broader market sell-off. A central theme was the fragility of energy markets. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz serves as a preview of future constraints, with the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Cushing inventories approaching critical functional minimums. This situation masks deeper issues, including opaque oil stockpile drawdowns in China. Steve predicted that higher oil prices will manifest in the near term, contributing to economic stress. He identified the AI bubble as the primary catalyst for an impending recession, far more destructive than the dot-com crash, as trillions of dollars in data center buildout risk becoming stranded assets. The popping of this bubble, combined with liquidations by fundamentally unprofitable Bitcoin mining companies, is expected to trigger a significant deflationary wave. In this environment, St. Angelo sees investment demand, not industrial or central bank buying, as the ultimate long-term driver for silver, which will protect wealth as other financial assets suffer from peak energy constraints. He also highlighted the market’s dysfunctional reality, noting that a spike to $300 silver would likely break the bullion dealer system, creating a liquidity crisis where sellers massively outnumber buyers. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:58 - Gold Silver Prod. Costs & C.B. 00:04:23 - China Oil Inventory Drawdowns 00:05:49 - Strategic Petroleum Reserve Analysis 00:09:44 - Oil Inventory Timeline Risks 00:14:56 - AI Bubble and Recession Risks 00:19:43 - Federal Reserve Policy Challenges 00:24:04 - Precious Metals Miner Margins 00:26:00 - Gold Silver Risk Asset Behavior 00:28:26 - Future Gold Silver Outlook 00:35:03 - Trading Silver For Gold Oz. 00:42:51 - Bitcoin Miner Economics 00:49:18 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: Steve St. Angelo Independent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, the majority of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI – Energy Returned On Invested – stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy. Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy research. For the past several years, he has written scholarly articles in some of the top precious metals and financial websites. You can find many of Steve’s articles on noteworthy sites, such as GoldSeek-SilverSeek, Market Oracle, Financial Sense, GoldSilver.com, SilverDoctors, TFMetals Report, Outsiderclub, SGTreport, BrotherJohnF, Hartgeld, Der-klare-blick, PeakProsperity, SilverStrategies, DollarCollapse, FurtureMoneyTrends, Sharpspixley, FinancialSurvivalNetwork, Pmbull, Deviantinvestor, PmBug, Wealthwire, and ZeroHedge. #PreciousMetals #GoldSilver #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #SPRInventory #CentralBanks #InvestmentDemand #SilverMining #GoldMining #AIBubble #MarketCrash #DeflationaryWave #BitcoinMining #PeakEnergy #WealthProtection X Website YouTube 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • June 17 · 1 hr 3 min

    Lobo Tiggre: Capitalizing On Opportunities in the Resource Sector: Finding the Undervalued Gems

    Lobo Tiggre, author and founder of the Independent Speculator, joined your host Tom Bodrovics to discuss the complex interplay of geopolitics, monetary policy, and commodity markets. Lobo argued that the war in the Middle East, while not inherently inflationary, fuels inflation through the government’s response—specifically, massive deficit spending and money printing to finance the conflict. He warned that this pattern of "profligacy" historically dethrones currencies and ends empires, placing new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in an impossible position between political pressure to cut rates and the economic need to fight inflation. Recorded on: June 16, 2026 Some Competent Links: Website: https://competentinvestor.com Substack: https://competentmanpod.substack.com/ X: https://x.com/CompetentInv Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-7699939 The conversation then shifted to market opportunities. Lobo, a self-described "wolf" hunting for low-risk entries, revealed he sold all his gold and silver stocks near the January peak, not from bearishness but from disciplined profit-taking. He is now eyeing the oil sector, anticipating that a potential peace deal could cause an overreaction and a sharp drawdown in oil prices, creating a compelling buying opportunity for quality producers. He remains long-term bullish on copper and uranium, citing structural supply deficits and the paradigm shift toward nuclear energy for 24/7 power and energy independence. However, he cautioned that an AI-driven market scare could put those sectors on sale as well. Tiggre also touched on the improving permitting environment for mining in the U.S. under the Trump administration, noting it creates an investable window before potential policy reversals. He discussed his research on "crappy producers," confirming they can outperform in a bull market due to margin expansion but require precise market timing to avoid devastating drawdowns. Ultimately, Tiggre emphasized a disciplined, contrarian approach: patiently waiting for clear "buy low" opportunities across commodities rather than chasing momentum, and using tools like selling puts to enter positions at advantageous prices. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:52 - Fed Policy and War Impact 00:05:42 - Peace Deal Prospects 00:12:37 - Supply Chain Rerouting 00:15:20 - SpaceX IPO Valuations 00:22:34 - Taking Profits? 00:29:08 - Gold Sentiment & Opportunity 00:37:53 - Demand For Metals & Permitting 00:41:14 - Bull Markets & Miner Performance 00:46:12 - Oil Sector Strategy 00:49:23 - Copper Market Constrained? 00:51:55 - Uranium Market Thoughts 00:59:40 - Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://independentspeculator.com X: https://x.com/duediligenceguy Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/ Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey. Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record. A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them. #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #FederalReserve #OilMarket #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Investing #Gold #Silver #Uranium #Commodities #StockMarket #AITechnology #MarketAnalysis Guest: Lobo Tiggre — Author & Founder of the Independent Speculator Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey. Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record. A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them. Website X Facebook LinkedIn 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • June 11 · 57 min

    Michael Green: The Resolution to America's Debt Problem| Restoring Balance With Bond Market Reforms

    Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, presents a contrarian view on bonds, arguing they are now an attractive investment due to three factors. First, the dominance of passive bond indices creates mechanical distortions, as market-cap weighting leads to misallocation during interest rate changes, undermining price discovery. Second, broad inflation has largely ended, with demographics and high short-term rates pushing conditions toward deflation, while many confuse ongoing price-level increases with inflation. Third, equities face high valuations and concentration risk, making bonds a safer option for income, especially for retirees. Green explains how banks’ "hold to maturity" bond holdings, trapped by unrealized losses from rate hikes, restrict credit provision. He proposed to the Treasury replacing these bonds at current coupons to free capital without a bailout, reducing systemic stress. He warns that monetary policy now acts as fiscal stimulus due to high debt-to-GDP, making rate cuts potentially contractionary and risking a crisis in housing and credit markets. Green dismisses ideas like gold revaluation or gold-backed bonds as ineffective fantasy, emphasizing that bond market dysfunction is a global Western phenomenon tied to passive investing. He notes upcoming IPOs like SpaceX may increase equity supply and pressure valuations, but their scale is manageable compared to 2000. Ultimately, Green urges investors to recognize how bonds have shifted and to seek education on economic realities, advocating for forward-looking policy that improves infrastructure rather than reacts to crises. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:15 - Non-Consensus View on Bonds 00:01:55 - Understanding Inflation Properly 00:03:48 - Why Bonds Are Interesting Now 00:05:45 - Banking System Bond Problems 00:07:57 - Treasury Proposal to Free Capital 00:12:11 - Passive Investing Distortions 00:21:52 - Risks of Impending Crisis 00:28:01 - Federal Reserve Policy Challenges 00:35:07 - Inflation Impact on Consumers 00:44:26 - IPOs and Market Supply Issues 00:55:10 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: Michael Green — Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management Michael is Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management. Michael has been noted for his work as a market theoretician and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder. Substack X 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • June 10 · 1 hr 7 min

    Craig Tindale: The Falling Dominos that are Leading to a Civilizational Reset

    Craig Tindale argues that the current global instability stems from humanity's tendency to mistake its complex models for reality. He explains that systems like central banking and globalized supply chains were built on narrow metrics, such as price efficiency, while ignoring broader consequences like sovereignty and resilience. This "delusional" approach led to the offshoring of industrial capacity, creating critical dependencies that are now being exposed. He draws a parallel with climate models, noting how specialized scientific silos fail to capture integrated system dynamics, such as how shipping fuel regulations reduced cloud cover and increased ocean heating. The discussion highlights how blockages in key chokepoints, like the Strait of Hormuz, are triggering cascading downstream effects that the "just-in-time" global economy cannot easily absorb. Tindale details the often-overlooked petrochemical supply chain, explaining how disruptions in products like naphtha and sulfuric acid will take months to materialize into shortages for fertilizers, plastics, and metal refining. This delayed reaction, he notes, creates a false sense of security that does not fit political or market cycles. On the economic front, Tindale predicts a necessary end to the era of perpetual asset inflation and consumption driven by the wealthy. He believes the US dollar will evolve rather than collapse, likely becoming more of a transactional currency as nations form competing blocs and gravitate toward a commodity-backed system. He criticizes the dominant geopolitical narratives of short wars and national primacy, suggesting that major powers like the US and China are locked in a checkmate that will damage all involved, with smaller nations suffering the worst consequences. Ultimately, he advises cultivating personal resilience, community, and a capacity to tolerate uncertainty rather than seeking definitive predictions. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:40 - Models and Civilizational Renewal 00:08:36 - Understanding Climate Models 00:14:34 - Borrowing from the Future 00:17:17 - Just-in-Time Inventory Issues 00:22:00 - Downstream Oil Consequences 00:32:50 - Market Responses to Closures 00:38:10 - Dollar and Bond Impacts 00:46:50 - Potential for More Conflicts 00:51:50 - New Reserve Currency Basket 01:00:40 - Finding Credible Information 01:05:42 - Wrap Up Guest: Craig Tindale — Private Investor and Publish of the CTindale Substack Craig Tindale is a private investor who has spent nearly four decades working in software development, business strategy, and infrastructure planning, including in leadership positions at Telstra, Oracle, and IBM. Additionally, he has direct experience working in east-to-west supply chains, including as the CEO and Asia Regional Director for DataDirect Technologies. He’s now pivoted to investing in groundbreaking ideas such as drone reforestation through Air Seed Technologies, and uses his knowledge of Chinese industrial strategy and Western tech demand to identify the choke points in Critical Metals markets. Most recently he released the white paper, Critical Materials: A Strategic Analysis, which offers a systems synthesis on how the race for rare earths and the return of material constraints is shaping geopolitical relationships. Substack X LinkedIn 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

  • June 6 · 40 min

    Michael Kao: Navigating the Tightrope Between Stagnation and Inflation

    Michael Kao, a former hedge fund manager and commodities trader, joined host Tom Bodrovics to discuss his view that the economy is walking a tightrope between two starkly different outcomes. Kao outlined a framework with four macro quadrants, defining a "Goldilocks" scenario of disinflationary growth and a "stagflationary" environment of slow growth with high inflation. His original thesis for the Trump 2.0 playbook anticipated the Goldilocks path, powered by AI-driven productivity and reshoring initiatives he calls a "reverse Marshall Plan," which could reduce the deficit much like the mid-1990s. This outlook has been severely disrupted by the unexpected Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has injected a supply-side inflationary shock into the system. This oil-led inflation is demand-destructive, essentially acting as a tax on consumers, and differs from the demand-led inflation of 2021. A tour of current macro indicators highlights this tension: inflation measures (CPI, PPI, PCE) are rising, while labor and headline growth metrics remain surprisingly resilient. However, the consumer is being squeezed, with retail sales, spending, and consumer confidence declining alongside a sharp rise in inflation expectations. Kao warns that many downstream inflationary effects, especially in food and petrochemicals, have yet to fully materialize. He believes the Federal Reserve is effectively "boxed," with no good case for either cutting rates and stoking inflation or hiking into a supply shock that is already hurting consumers. Despite the short-term turmoil, Kao remains optimistic that powerful secular deflationary forces from AI will ultimately reassert themselves. He cited staggering examples of AI-driven efficiency that could anchor long-term growth. For positioning, he personally seeks safety in diversified, uncorrelated streams of passive income from assets like oil and gas private equity and idiosyncratic credit, avoiding a traditional passive beta approach. His parting thought highlighted the modern "fog of war," where deliberate obfuscation makes it crucial to watch market clues for what is truly transpiring beneath the geopolitical chaos. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:01:05 - Defining Macro Scenarios 00:07:40 - Iran War Macro Impact 00:10:22 - Tariffs and Demand Elasticity 00:16:16 - Macro Indicators Overview 00:21:25 - Consumer and Housing Metrics 00:23:30 - PPI CPI and Data Trust 00:27:38 - Federal Reserve Roundtable 00:31:36 - Goldilocks Scenario Outlook 00:35:53 - Oil Demand Destruction Risks 00:42:18 - Fed Rate Policy Challenges 00:46:07 - AI Productivity Boom 00:52:55 - Investment Positioning Strategy 00:56:06 - Urban Kaoberg Project 01:03:00 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: Michael Kao — Private Family Office Investor & Author - Former Hedge Fund Manager & Commodities Trader Michael Kao is a seasoned investor and retired portfolio manager with 25 years of experience in commodities trading and hedge fund management. He has a lifelong passion for the markets and a keen interest in geopolitics, which has lead him to manage his own investments and publish his views on his SubStack Website – Kaoboy Musings. Known for his out of consensus calls that often wind up becoming consensus later on, Michael Kao strives to cut through the noise in his musings by introducing mental models from other disciplines and injecting ideas from eclectic topics. He aims to educate, encourage out-of-the-box thinking, elevate above the noise and entertain. X Substack New Platform 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

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