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Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday, Thursday, and Friday

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  • March 13 · 43 min

    What War in Iran Means for China's Teapot Oil Refineries

    In the wake of the war in Iran, oil prices have shot up for everyone. But not all oil is exactly equal. And, obviously, a lot of Iranian oil goes to China specifically. Furthermore, because Iran’s oil is sanctioned, a lot of it winds up at China’s so-called “teapot” refineries, which tend to be smaller and owned by independent companies. On the other hand, China has famously been building up its strategic petroleum stockpiles for years, and due to the rise of electric vehicles, they may have less economic sensitivity to the price of crude directly. On this episode, we speak with Erica Downs, senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at the Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs. Erica has a long background studying Chinese energy policy and she talks to us about the potential cost that the war is imposing on China’s economy, why the country has built up such a big buffer stock in the first place, and how this global oil shock could ultimately play to its advantage. Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • March 12 · 49 min

    Legendary Hacker Matt Suiche on Cyberwar in the Age of AI

    We tend to think of warfare in two distinct arenas: the physical and the digital. Increasingly, however, those lines are blurring. Last week, Iran launched drone strikes on data centers in the UAE and Bahrain. Israel has reportedly been hacking traffic lights in Tehran, and this week brought a suspected Iranian cyberattack on US medical device company Stryker, all underscoring long-held fears that hackers could take aim at vital physical infrastructure. On this episode, we speak with Matt Suiche, the legendary French hacker and founder of OnDB, a data infrastructure startup for agentic AI. We discuss what we know of Iran’s cyber capabilities, what digital warfare looks like today, and how AI is transforming coding and hacking. Read more: Stryker Remains Offline After Cyberattack Linked to Iran Group Google to Provide Pentagon With AI Agents for Unclassified Work Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • March 11 · 30 min

    War in Iran Is Creating a Fertilizer Crisis Like Never Before

    We all know that the war with Iran has sent oil prices spiking. But it’s also pushing up the cost of all sorts of chemicals, including fertilizers like urea, ammonia and other nitrogen products that are essential for food production. This is all happening at the worst possible time — just before the spring planting season, when fertilizer is most needed. And while farmers have seen higher spot prices for things like urea before, notably back in 2022, there are already signs that this crisis might be worse. So how is fertilizer actually made? And what do higher fertilizer costs mean for farmers and for food prices? On this episode we speak with Alexis Maxwell, senior analyst on Bloomberg Intelligence's agriculture team. Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • March 10 · 36 min

    Rory Johnston on How Oil Could Surge to Over $200 a Barrel

    Oil has obviously spiked massively since the start of the war with Iran. And if you look at various end products, such as jet fuel, the surge is even more extreme. And if the war is prolonged, or if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be functionally blocked, then this could just be the start of an even bigger spike. On this episode, we speak with Rory Johnston, the author of the Commodity Context newsletter. Rory is typically a very level headed guy, and not a doomer at all. And even he is quite alarmed. He says that the persistent closure of the Strait of Hormuz is such big disruption to contemplate that it’s typically used as the worse case scenario in industry thought experiments. He walks us through how oil could go to $200 a barrel or beyond, resulting in higher prices at the pump for American consumers, and perhaps significant shortages in the rest of the world. Read more: Trump Signals Possible End to War, Floats Removing Oil Sanctions Venezuela Oil Buyer Says Its Cargo Is Sailing to Caribbean Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • March 9 · 51 min

    Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on Tokenization and Prediction Markets for Everything

    Last year, we had Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on the podcast to talk to us about his company's plans to tokenize shares of private companies. The idea is that retail investors want to participate in hot names like OpenAI and SpaceX, and that tokenizing private equity would allow this to happen. Right after our episode though, a number of companies expressed frustration at the idea, saying that they were not voluntarily participating in the plan. So where do things stand now? And how is Robinhood thinking about how it will play in the red hot prediction market space? On this episode, Vlad returns to talk about where things stand, and all of the company's new efforts to give retail traders even more instruments to use. Read more: Polymarket Bets on Iran War Show Limits of Prediction Markets for Wall Street Robinhood Adds $695 ‘Actual’ Platinum Card to Compete With Amex Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • March 7 · 45 min

    Henry Blodget on the Software Selloff Hysteria and the Problem for OpenAI

    A year ago, all of the talk was about how the big AI companies were wildly overvalued. Everyone was calling it a bubble. Fast forward to now, and a dominant idea in the markets is that AI is so powerful that all kinds of legacy businesses — particularly software — could go to zero. So where does the truth lie? And what now for AI valuations? On this episode, recorded live at the On Air podcast festival in Brooklyn on February 25, we catch up again with Henry Blodget, the former Wall Street analyst turned Business Insider CEO, who is now the founder of Regenerator. In a wide-ranging conversation, Henry argues against the software doom scenario, and sees problems for OpenAI as it faces massive spending costs with stiff competition. Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • March 6 · 30 min

    Lots More on the Seaborne Chaos Around the Strait of Hormuz

    With war breaking out in Iran, the price of oil is surging, in part due to the destruction of oil energy infrastructure, but also the ability of anything to get through the Strait of Hormuz. But it’s not just oil that moves through this key waterway — there are plenty of other goods, including metals and ingredients for fertilizer getting potentially constrained. It’s also not just the risk of violence itself that’s an issue for shipping companies, there’s also the question of how cargoes get insured. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with return guests Anton Posner and Margo Brock, co-founders of the Mercury Group, which helps dry bunk clients solve issues related to logistics, transportation and insurance. They discuss what’s actually happening on the ground, surging insurance rates, and how shippers and carriers are dealing with the chaos. Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • March 5 · 47 min

    Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein on Why He Doesn't Tweet

    Lloyd Blankfein was CEO of Goldman Sachs for more than a decade, riding the trading boom to the top of the storied investment bank and steering it through the 2008 financial crisis. In his new memoir, Streetwise: Getting To and Through Goldman Sachs, he writes about his journey from public housing in Brooklyn to the pinnacle of Wall Street. So what's he up to now? And how does he see markets and finance today? In this episode, we talk about deglobalization and Wall Street, the threats AI and tech pose to investment banking, risk management in private credit, and rich people's attitudes towards taxes. Plus, Lloyd shares some of what he left out of the book and he explains why he doesn't tweet more. Read more: Goldman’s Solomon Is Watching for ‘Frothiness’ in Private Credit Private Market Titans Warn of Pain as Credit Cracks Widen Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • March 2 · 55 min

    How the Speed of a Trade Got Down to Nearly the Speed of Light

    The average person can enter a stock trade on their computer, hit refresh, and the trade is done. As fast as that seems, there are professional traders moving even faster, executing thousands of trades per second. Over the years, the need for speed got so intense that competing firms would aim to get their own systems closer and closer to the exchange's computers, so as to minimize the length of the wires and get their trades in even faster. How did this happen? And how does this change the nature of trading itself? On this episode, we speak with Donald Mackenzie, a professor of sociology at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland. Professor Mackenzie has been studying the intersection of finance and tech for a long time, and in 2021 wrote the book, Trading at the Speed of Light. We discuss the history of finance technology and look at where the technological arms race is going next. Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • March 1 · 1 min

    Introducing: Bloomberg This Weekend

    'Bloomberg This Weekend' features unique conversations on business, news, lifestyle and culture. Join David Gura, Christina Ruffini and Lisa Mateo Saturdays and Sundays for discussions with business leaders, lawmakers and cultural icons. Watch the show LIVE on Bloomberg Television from 7AM-10AM Eastern Time. Listen to the show LIVE on Bloomberg Radio from 7AM-10AM Eastern Time. Listen to the Podcast for the best conversations from the show. Subscribe on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bloomberg-this-weekend/id1878739308 Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5DQ8CEg9LeS1xGJSaxt47l See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • February 28 · 43 min

    James van Geelen on His Viral AI Doom Scenario

    Something very unusual happened in the market in the last week of February. It sold off, in part, thanks to an article on Substack. James van Geelen is the founder of Citrini Research, which published a piece a week ago titled, “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” It was not written as a forecast of an imminent disaster, but rather as a scenario analysis in which AI capabilities lead to widespread white collar job losses, triggering a deep downturn, and a financial crisis. Nonetheless, the piece went extraordinary viral, gathering all kinds of responses from economists and research shops and even Citadel Securities. On this episode, we speak with James, the piece's co-author, about what Citrini Research actually is, why he wrote the piece, and why this is a scenario worth paying attention to, even if it's not the most likely outcome. Read more: Bank Shares Walloped by More AI and ‘Cockroach’ Credit Woes Pentagon Casts Cloud of Doubt Over Anthropic’s AI Business Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • February 27 · 44 min

    The Scramble Is On for Businesses to Get Their Tariff Refund Checks

    Earlier this month, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs were illegal. And now basically every importer who paid those tariffs will be rushing to get their refunds. But will businesses actually get paid? And how do they file a claim? And should consumers get refunded if a business passed the cost of the tariffs on to them? On this episode, we're rejoined by regular Odd Lots guest Ryan Petersen, the CEO of Flexport, a major freight forwarding company. We discuss how the entire refund process works, and the estimated timeline for payoff. We also talk about the booming secondary market in refund claims, where traders are buying up other people's claims for, in some cases, 50 cents on the dollar. Ryan also walks us through how world trade has changed since the tariffs began and the various way companies tried to game the system. Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • February 26 · 47 min

    How Insurance Costs Make NYC Construction So Expensive

    It's hard to imagine New York City becoming significantly more affordable as long as it remains so expensive to build things. Whether we're talking about new housing or transportation, the city is a famously expensive place to do construction. There are reports of subway elevators costing $100 million per station. Public bathrooms end up costing millions as well. One driver of costs is insurance, which is a major national issue, but particularly acute in NYC, with costs as a share of a given construction project having surged over the decades. So what's the story? On this episode we speak with Elizabeth Crowley, the president and CEO of the Building Trades Employers' Association, as well as Michael Capasso, the president and CEO of CAC Industries, a civil engineering firm which works on various heavy construction projects in the city. We talk about regulations that push the cost of operation higher, along with other factors such as project delays and labor availability. Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • February 23 · 53 min

    Alison Roman's Plan to Conquer the Tomato Sauce Market

    Alison Roman is a cult figure in the world of food media. She's written multiple hit cookbooks and several of her recipes have gone viral. And her newsletter is incredibly popular. Now, she's putting her name on consumer goods, recently launching a new line of high-end jarred tomato sauce called, appropriately, A Very Good Sauce, which she sells direct online. So what has she learned about the consumer goods industry and its supply chain? On this episode, she explains why she entered the space, how she thinks about carving out a niche, and everything she's learned — from figuring out shipping to co-packing to designing a recipe that can be cooked in high volume. We also talk generally about the world of food and food media and how she thinks about bridging content and commerce. Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • February 21 · 55 min

    Jamee Moudud on the Intellectual Roots of Zohranomics

    NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani has certain ideas that make mainstream economists' head explode. Anything in the ballpark of rent control, specifically, is widely derided by defenders of the orthodoxy. But how did the orthodoxy become the orthodoxy? And how did the heterodoxy become the heterodoxy? On this episode, we speak with Jamee Moudud, a professor of economics at Sarah Lawrence College and author of the new book, Legal and Political Foundations of Capitalism. His scholarship sits at the intersection of economics and legal theory. He argues that one can not analyze the economy as if it were some separate thing that exists outside of the institutional and political realities of the time. We discuss the history of economics in the 19th and 20th centuries, and why certain ideas were adopted by the field, while others discarded and relegated to the margins. Read more: Mamdani Stacks NYC Board to Carry Out Promised Rent Freeze Mamdani Threatens to Hike NYC Property Tax to Fill Budget Hole Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • February 20 · 48 min

    A16Z's David George on How Private and Public Markets Fused Into One

    This year could be a big one for IPOs. From Anthropic to SpaceX to OpenAI, we could see some gigantic companies hit the public market. But of course, the big story is that big, thriving companies feel less and less pressure to go public. In a different era, private giants like Databricks and Stripe might've IPO'd a long time ago. So what's changed? Why are companies comfortable staying private for so long? On this episode, we speak with David George, a general partner at Andreesen Horowitz, who leads the firm's growth investing team. He discusses how private markets have grown deeper and more liquid, which greatly reduces the need for companies to have public stock at all. We also talk about how he's thinking about the AI disruption trade, and when it makes sense for these private giants to bite the bullet and expose their stock to public investors. Read more: Private Equity Targets Clean Energy After Steep Drop-Off in 2025 Andreessen Horowitz Backs Unicorn Kavak in $300 Million Round Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • February 19 · 49 min

    Jared Sleeper on Which Software Companies Will Survive the "SaaSpocalypse"

    The start of the year has been an absolutely brutal one for software companies. There’s a big fear that the rise of AI and advanced coding models will pull the rug out from this industry. But even before these AI fears, software companies were seeing their growth slow. So how does the business actually work? And more importantly, what types of companies will actually survive the “SaaSpocalypse”? (Or maybe “the CaSaaStrophe”?) On this episode, we speak with Jared Sleeper, a longtime software investor who is now a partner at Avenir. We talk about the history of software, the evolution of business models, and where the threat is most acute. He also talks about why investors are so nervous, and their fears that in the long term many of these companies will be worth zero, while in the short term, they’re not even making much money on a GAAP basis. Read more: Private Software Companies Release Earnings Early to Calm AI Nerves Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • February 16 · 45 min

    Ray Wang on How AI Is Causing DRAM Prices to Surge

    For years, DRAM -- or Dynamic Random Access Memory -- was kind of a sleepy, commoditized aspect of chip industry. Growth was steady, but modest, and prices just generally drifted lower. Suddenly all that's changed. AI has created voracious demand for DRAM and consumer facing companies are being forced to either curtail supply or raise prices due to exploding costs. But what is it about AI that consumes so much memory, and when will the market rebalance itself? On this episode, we speak with Ray Wang, an analyst at SemiAnalysis, who recently co-authored a report titled, Memory Mania: How a Once-in-Four-Decades Shortage Is Fueling a Memory Boom. We discuss the implications of this memory boom, how producers are responding to surging prices, and whether or not the Chinese companies in the space can catch up to the Korean giants, such as Samsung and Hynix. Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • February 15 · 12 min

    The Sixth Bureau, Episode 1: Your Friend From Nanjing

    It’s an open secret that the Chinese government has engaged in a global campaign to acquire intellectual property from foreign rivals. At the center of that campaign is the Ministry of State Security, China’s elusive intelligence agency. The US has apprehended hundreds of people accused of giving information to the MSS, but the agency’s inner workings have been a mystery — until now. Today, we’re bringing you Episode 1 of The Sixth Bureau, a limited-run series from The Big Take. The series follows an MSS intelligence officer whose mission was to acquire the crown jewels of American aerospace companies. With aliases, blackmail and the occasional break-in, he targeted corporate giants. That is, until his sloppiness — and a cunning FBI sting — led to a stunning reversal: Xu Yanjun became the first Chinese intelligence officer ever convicted on American soil. Listen to Episode 2, available now in The Big Take. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • February 13 · 56 min

    Why Adam Posen Thinks Inflation Will Surge Back to 4%

    The future is always tough to predict, but generally when it comes to inflation, a lot of the debate is about how long it will take the Federal Reserve to get back to its 2% target. In other words, people generally agree on the direction, but disagree on the speed. But our guest on this episode violently disagrees with the consensus direction. Peterson Institute President Adam Posen thinks inflation will be back at 4% by the end of the year. He first unveiled his thesis in a piece co-written with Lazard's Peter Orszag last month. Posen argues that the lagged effect of tariffs, immigration, further fiscal easing, and declining Fed credibility will combine to cause prices to reaccelerate. In this conversation, we speak with Posen about his thesis, and why he thinks the reports of economic softening are mistaken. We also talk about the broader geopolitical landscape and whether Europe is ready to really change its relationship with the United States. More: A Very Non-Consensus Inflation Call Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Showing 141–160 of 1,302 episodes