Moving Markets

Julius Baer

Moving Markets is the home of podcasts at Julius Baer. Here, our expert teams share concise daily market updates in ‘Moving Markets Daily’ which is complemented by ‘Moving Markets: The View Beyond’, a weekly show dedicated to discussing the context, thematic angles, and investment implications behind key topics shaping the news cycle and conversations among our relationship managers and clients.

The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

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1,058 episodes
Updated Yesterday

Episodes1058

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Sep 1, 2023 · 11 min
Fed’s eyes on today’s US employment report
The US employment report will take centre stage today and it could well impact the US Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions. In China, authorities are continuing with their strategy of announcing not one big-bang stimulus measure, but rather many small measures, to help the economy. And the US Securities and Exchange Commission has again delayed the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs – this would be a big deal for the industry as it would allow investors to own Bitcoin like any other security. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, notes that he expects the USD to soften a bit more from here. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:20 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 05:55 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 10:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 31, 2023 · 16 min
More data moves markets
Lower-than-expected Q2 US GDP data yesterday added to investors’ hopes that the Fed might take a breather in its hiking cycle. Stock markets might have rallied in response but they are still set to end August lower. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index data came out below the magic 50 mark, indicating the economy is still contracting, but some Chinese building and AI companies were given a boost by positive sector news. Meanwhile, UBS announced record-breaking Q2 results. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, explains that something does glisten more than gold (spoiler alert: it’s US Treasuries) and Nicolas Jordan from CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis joins us to share what our Investment Committee makes of the ‘unbelievable strength of the US economy’. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:35 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 07:36 Gold update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research) 11:41 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis) 15:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 30, 2023 · 11 min
A welcome cooling in the US labour market
The cooling of the US labour market suggests that the US Federal Reserve may pause its rate hike cycle in September. This sent equity prices soaring yesterday, while government bond yields fell substantially. In China's latest state-led measures, the country's largest banks are preparing to cut interest rates on existing mortgages and deposits. Bitcoin is also back in the headlines as a new ruling by a federal court in the US has given the green light for the launch of a Bitcoin ETF. In today's episode, Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research shares his views on the impact of central bank comments on bond markets and explains why we are now less convinced about the emerging market segment of the bond market. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:29 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 05:41 Bond markets – what’s changed? by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research) 10:17 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 29, 2023 · 15 min
Markets upbeat ahead of economic data releases
Global equities advance as investors continue to ponder central bankers’ comments at the Jackson Hole economic symposium last week and ahead of a series of key data releases later this week. Shop price inflation in the UK fell sharply to 6.9% in August reflecting hopes that this slowing in the pace of rising prices is a sign that UK households may soon be over the worst of the sharp squeeze on living standards. And David Kohl, Chief Economist, talks about the resilience of the US economy and shares with us where he thinks monetary policy will go from here. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 06:07 Jackson Hole review by David Kohl (Chief Economist) 14:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 28, 2023 · 11 min
Stock markets rally on careful central bankers and China news
After central bankers delivered no surprises to markets at Jackson Hole, equities are rallying this morning led by Chinese on-shore stocks, which are rising on the back of the new measures announced to lure investors back into the ailing stock market. Markus Wachter, from Technical Analysis, explains why he believes that the uptrend for stocks remains intact. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:23 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 06:03 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research) 10:22 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 25, 2023 · 11 min
Everyone’s waiting for Jerome Powell
US stock markets stumbled yesterday as strong results from blockbuster Nvidia failed to boost the broader stock market and as investors seemed nervous ahead of today’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The negative sentiment spread to the Asia-Pacific region overnight. In other news, the BRICS group announced plans to increase its number of members, which could well lead to some complicated geopolitics going forwards. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, also joins today’s show and he comments on the major developments in the FX and metals markets. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 05:45 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 10:30 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 24, 2023 · 12 min
AI optimism drives stock markets higher
Nvidia delivered sterling results yesterday, topping analysts’ expectations for earnings per share, revenue and the forecast for quarterly sales. Stock markets globally rallied with tech and AI stocks benefitting disproportionately. US treasuries stabilised in Asian trading, having recovered some ground in the US session on Wednesday following softer-than-expected PMI data. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, provides insights into the current ups and downs of European energy prices and Nicolas Jordan shares how our Investment Committee expects the Jackson Hole Symposium to unfold. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:33 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 05:59 European energy market update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research) 09:08 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis) 11:38 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 23, 2023 · 20 min
US stocks hampered by rising bond market yields
US equities fell further yesterday, weighed by concerns over rising Treasury yields ahead of a key speech later this week from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, shares with us his recommendations on how to tackle the current environment in bond markets. And in a special contribution from Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, we talk about the latest developments in China. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:33 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 05:56 Bond market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research) 10:57 Latest developments in China (pre-recorded): Helen Freer (Investment Writing) and Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong) 11:26 China: Triggers for latest economic concerns 13:09 China: Impact of Chinese deflation 14:36 China: Explanation of recent rate decisions 15:43 China: Support for the property sector 17:29 China: Increase in risks to growth? 18:47 China: Our current investment philosophy 19:47 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 22, 2023 · 9 min
Tech stocks rally despite rise in bond yields
The sell-off in US bond markets resumed yesterday, pushing yields on typical Treasuries and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) up to levels not seen in years. Meanwhile, tech stocks rallied on optimistic earnings reports, which is particularly interesting as they have historically struggled in a high interest rate environment. In Asia, Japanese yields also surged, fuelling speculation that the Bank of Japan could launch an unscheduled bond-buying operation. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research joins today’s episode with his views on the latest news on digital assets. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:41 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 05:25 Latest news on digital assets by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) 08:17 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 21, 2023 · 11 min
Rate cuts in China fail to improve sentiment
Banks in China have cut their short-term lending rates, but markets are disappointed having expected more. Meanwhile, fixed income investors are looking for clues on monetary policy at this week's Jackson Hole conference. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, sees the market rout in August as a consolidation only. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:30 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 05:45 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research) 09:48 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 18, 2023 · 12 min
US bond yields rose to their highest since 2007
Higher bond yields in developed markets are spooking equity markets, but some on the bond side see the higher yields as too attractive to miss out on. Services prices in Japan rose at the fastest annual rate since 1993. China is pushing hard against a weaker yuan. Bitcoin drops like a stone on a report that Elon Musk's SpaceX company has sold the digital asset. A big options expiration day could explain some sharp moves in the US today. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, also joins today’s podcast and he notes that the British Pound has a big interest rate advantage over the CHF. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:20 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 06:32 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 11:29 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 17, 2023 · 16 min
Encouraging signs from the US do little to pacify investors
Strong economic data out of the US highlighting the country’s resilience contrasts with an increasingly worrying picture in China and economic woes in Europe. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides an update on industrial metals in the context of developments in China. And Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, shares with us the latest decisions from Julius Baer’s Investment Committee. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:33 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 05:59 Industrial metals by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research) 10:46 Update from the CIO Office by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis) 15:37 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 16, 2023 · 11 min
China and interest rates weigh on sentiment
Equity markets are pricing in a new reality in which US interest rates will stay higher for longer and China will no longer be a growth engine for the global economy. This has implications for investors, as Dario Messi of Fixed Income Research explains: "The momentum for higher yields in the US has increased”. 00:14 Introduction by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 00:38 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 06:19 Fixed income markets by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research) 10:27 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 15, 2023 · 17 min
China cuts, the Fed is done, and the Bank of England has one more hike to go
China's central bank has unexpectedly cut a key interest rate due to weakness in its economy and it being on the brink of deflation, while Japan's economy accelerated in the second quarter on a surge in exports. In the US, artificial intelligence stocks led a market rally in technology stocks, while small caps traded at their lowest level in a month. Argentina was forced to devalue its currency by 18% and hiked its key interest rate by 21% after an election upset, while the Bank of Russia is meeting as the Russian ruble fell below 100 per USD. David Kohl, Chief Economist, said that the US Federal Reserve has completed its tightening cycle, while the Bank of England only has one more rate hike of 0.25% to go. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:47 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 06:35 Outlook for Fed and Bank of England by David Kohl (Chief Economist) 15:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 14, 2023 · 9 min
Asia-Pacific markets lower on fresh concerns over China's shadow banking sector
Asia Pacific markets are trading lower this morning after reported liquidity concerns at one of China's largest private wealth managers. A team at Goldman Sachs are expecting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of June next year. Markus Wachter from the Technical Analysis Research team provides a technical insight on oil, precious metals and US and European stocks. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:43 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing) 04:05 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research) 08:12 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 11, 2023 · 12 min
Market rally proves short-lived after Fed warning
The rally across markets faded into the end of trading as Fed officials warned that the battle against inflation is not yet won, despite a benign US inflation report for July. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, shares his thoughts on what the latest inflation data means for currencies and metals. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:40 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 06:27 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 11:31 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 10, 2023 · 13 min
US inflation and US investment restrictions in China in focus
A down day for US equities yesterday may not be so telling ahead of today’s all-important US inflation data release. The Italian government qualified the extent of its windfall tax on excess profits of banks; a US 10-year Treasury auction was well received; the US announces new restrictions on investments in key sectors in China; China is allowing group travel to key countries again; and oil, natural gas, and rice prices are all on the rise – so plenty to talk about on a peak summer day. Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, talks about China being in a balance sheet recession, the benign US economic picture, and that a consolidation in the US equity advance may not be such a bad thing. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:39 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 06:39 Update from the CIO Office by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis) 11:59 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 9, 2023 · 12 min
China CPI and PPI figures prompt fears of deflation
Investor sentiment in Asia-Pacific takes a hit after China’s CPI and PPI data for July fell in tandem for the first time since November 2020, indicating deflation pressure amid weakening demand. And in a bid to restore calm to its financial system, Italy caps its new tax on banks' windfall profits at 0.1% of the firms’ assets. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, provides his thoughts on fixed income markets and shares his expectations ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI print. 00:14 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 00:37 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 04:54 Fixed income markets by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research) 11:19 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 8, 2023 · 8 min
Asia-Pacific markets mixed after worse-than-expected China trade data
Asia Pacific markets are mixed this morning after China reported trade data that showed a worse-than-expected decline in imports and exports. US markets closed higher on Monday, despite Moody's Investors Service downgrading ten small and mid-sized US banks. The Italian government approved a surprise tax on the ‘extra profits’ of banks this year, which could bring in over EUR 2 billion to the state. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research provides an update on digital assets. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:32 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing) 04:17 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) 07:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Aug 7, 2023 · 11 min
Earnings season draws to a close - inflation data to dominate markets
Equities had one of their worst weeks in months, but most market participants believe this was due to profit taking rather than a significant change in the investment environment. The US employment report triggered a rally in US Treasuries - the entire yield curve has shifted significantly lower. Markus Wachter from Technical Analysis shares his thoughts on the direction of both equities and yields in the coming months. 00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:38 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 06:51 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research) 10:27 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.