Moving Markets

Julius Baer

Moving Markets is the home of podcasts at Julius Baer. Here, our expert teams share concise daily market updates in ‘Moving Markets Daily’ which is complemented by ‘Moving Markets: The View Beyond’, a weekly show dedicated to discussing the context, thematic angles, and investment implications behind key topics shaping the news cycle and conversations among our relationship managers and clients.

The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

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1,058 episodes
Updated Yesterday

Episodes1058

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Sep 29, 2023 · 11 min
Stocks stage something of a comeback yesterday
US equities have struggled in September, but staged a bit of a month-end rally yesterday after US Treasury yields fell back from 15-year highs. Meanwhile in Asia, hopes that China’s Golden Week holiday will boost consumer spending are helping sentiment, as is the news that US and Chinese leaders are in talks to meet. In commodities, oil continues to grab headlines, with Brent on track for its best quarter since Q1 2022. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, joins today’s show and outlines why gold has had a tough week and how the stronger oil price is affecting the FX markets. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 06:05 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 10:39 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 28, 2023 · 13 min
As Oil grabs the headlines … can the rally last?
Benchmark US oil prices rose to USD 95 a barrel for the first time in more than a year after inventories in the nation's main stockpile fell to critical levels. Meanwhile, the prospect of a US government shutdown is weighing on markets already jittery about higher rates. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research delves into the oil story and further expands on energy transition, whilst Nicolas Jordan shares the views from our investment committee on interest rates, inflation and whether we’ll see a bounce into year end. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:34 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing) 03:52 Energy update & Net Zero scenarios by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research) 09:39 Update from the CIO office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis) 12:32 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 27, 2023 · 12 min
Fears of US yields rising further drag equities lower
September continues to live up to its bad reputation in financial markets, with equities down between 3% and 7% and bond yields continuing to rise. The Federal Reserve's insistence on keeping policy tighter than expected continues to weigh on markets. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, explains how this could also be an opportunity for investors. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing) 05:57 Bond Market Update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research) 10:54 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 26, 2023 · 11 min
European and US equity markets diverge
Investor sentiment in Europe took a hit yesterday as concerns around interest rates staying higher for longer and renewed fears in the Chinese economy continued to daze markets. In the US, however, equities managed to snap their four-day losing streaks, shrugging off moves in the bond market. And Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on the Bitcoin spot ETF saga and what this means for crypto markets. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 06:15 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) 09:47 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 25, 2023 · 10 min
Central banks rain on stock market’s parade
Equity markets closed the week lower after comments from the leading central banks forced investors to realise that they will be stuck with higher rates for longer than expected as the war against inflation continues to be fought at the monetary policy level. Asia’s stock indices are facing their own challenges today as China’s property sector continues to implode. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, reveals what the charts say about whether September’s sell-off can be converted into a year-end rally. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:21 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 06:00 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research) 08:52 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 22, 2023 · 17 min
Central banks made bonds sell off
This week, one central bank after another made it clear that interest rates need to stay higher for longer. As a result, government bond yields rose sharply, the US dollar strengthened and equities sold off. Only the Bank of Japan remains on a different wavelength, keeping its monetary policy as loose as ever. In Asia, the positive news is that China may allow the immediate transfer of investment-related funds in and out of the country, while India's government bonds will be included in a major global bond index. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, notes that the Swiss National Bank's decision not to raise interest rates was the most surprising, but also the most understandable. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, makes the point that good news on the economy is bad news for gold. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 06:22 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 11:32 Gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research) 15:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 21, 2023 · 15 min
Markets fall after 'hawkish hold' by the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but hinted at one more hike in the US this year and that rates will stay higher for longer than market participants had initially thought. Yields are higher and equities lower this morning, with only the US dollar shining. Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, explains that the current expansionary US fiscal policy could make the Federal Reserve's job of balancing monetary policy even harder in the future. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:31 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 06:26 Latest news from the Investment Committee by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis) 14:24 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 20, 2023 · 16 min
Markets breathe a sigh ahead of Fed decision
Amid rising pricing pressure in the energy sector, today it’s the turn of the US Federal Reserve to announce its latest interest rate decision. UK CPI data surprises to the downside, in a sign that sticky inflation is slowly starting to come down ahead of the Bank of England rate decision tomorrow. And our Chief Economist David Kohl provides his comprehensive insights on what we can expect from the slew of central bank meetings this week. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 06:16 Central Bank meetings preview by David Kohl (Chief Economist) 15:42 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 19, 2023 · 14 min
Fiscal policy is the elephant in the room
Markets are basically on hold ahead of the US rate decision tomorrow. The oil rally, which has the potential to raise risks to inflation, has us on tenterhooks in a week dominated by central bank activity. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why fiscal policy might now be more important than monetary policy in the US. He also delves into the Fed’s dots and what we might read from them. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:25 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 05:38 Fixed income update by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research) 12:56 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 18, 2023 · 9 min
Oil prices rise to a 10-month high
Oil prices hit a 10-month high on Friday driven by Saudi Arabian production cuts and optimism around Chinese demand. The Federal Reserve is debating whether to raise interest rates one more time this year and how much to ease rates in 2024. Rental costs in the UK have grown at the fastest rate in at least 10 years. There’s a busy agenda of central bank meetings this week. Markus Wachter from Technical Analysis Research shares his thoughts on equities and oil from a technical perspective. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:24 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing) 04:58 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research) 07:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 15, 2023 · 15 min
Strong US retail sales vs ECB’s lower growth forecast
European equities rallied yesterday on the prospect of an end to the European Central Bank's tightening cycle even as the growth outlook was downgraded, while US equities rose on strong retail sales figures and Hong Kong equities gained on better-than-expected data from China. Arm's IPO was well received, with the stock rising 25% on its first day of trading; US autoworkers went on strike, affecting a third of the US auto industry; and today's biggest ever options expiration could bring some volatility back to the US equity market. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, points out that metal-intensive sectors in China are still struggling. Nicolas Jordan from the CIO office also joins todays show and discusses the investment implications of Europe, the US and China being at very different points in the economic cycle. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 06:26 Industrial metals update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research) 10:27 Latest news from the Investment Committee by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis) 13:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 14, 2023 · 14 min
US CPI nudges higher as ECB mulls a hike or pause
Following yesterday’s US inflation data, which came in marginally higher than expectations, today it’s the turn of the European Central Bank to decide whether the unprecedented surge in eurozone inflation has fallen enough to warrant a pause in its tightening cycle. Our Head of Equity Strategy, Mathieu Racheter, shares his insights into the European and US equity market dynamics. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, provides an update on currencies and precious metals. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:37 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 06:08 Equities: Eurozone vs US by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy) 08:30 Currencies and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 13:33 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 13, 2023 · 13 min
Tech stocks under pressure ahead of US inflation data
Tech stocks are under pressure after Oracle missed on earnings and gave a rather gloomy outlook and Apple's 'Wonderlust' event failed (so far) to inspire investors' imagination. With US inflation figures due today and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision tomorrow, Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, explains why he remains positive that yields are peaking. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:54 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 07:08 Bond market / Research Calls update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research) 11:58 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 12, 2023 · 9 min
Riding the tech wave
Stocks around the world are being boosted not only by expectations that the Fed will pause its rate hike cycle next week, but also by investors buying into technology stocks after recent weakness and on news from companies like Tesla and Apple. In Asia, sentiment in the property sector improved after a Chinese property developer in distress reached an agreement to extend the repayment on six of its bonds. Hannah Wise, Head of Investment Communication, joins us today to provide a few details on our next webcast, where we will revisit our Market Outlook. The webcast takes place tomorrow, Wednesday 13th September, at 10am CEST. You can register here: http://ow.ly/rslb104TSK1 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:21 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 05:20 Market Outlook Update webcast details by Hannah Wise (Head of Investment Communication) 08:07 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 11, 2023 · 10 min
A positive end to a losing week
Investors breathed a small sigh of relief on Friday as European and US equity markets halted their losing streak, closing the day, if not the week, marginally higher. Recent economic data in the US has reignited rate hike fears. This Thursday we will find out what the ECB will do. Meanwhile, Japan’s central bank governor boosted the yen and government bond yields as he signalled that an end to negative interest rates might be on the cards. Markus Wachter tells us why technicals are pointing to a year-end stock rally. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:25 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 06:17 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research) 09:02 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 8, 2023 · 9 min
When is an apple not an apple? When it’s a spanner of course!
Yes, Apple Inc. was the spanner in the equity markets’ works yesterday. In all fairness, it was actually the Chinese government turning the screw on Apple, as it sought to broaden its ban on foreign technology further. As Apple‘s share price dropped for the second day in a row, the impact was felt most in the tech sector and saw the Nasdaq composite fall for a fourth consecutive session yesterday, closing down 0.89%. Data released on US jobs and labour costs also upset markets and has provided some ammunition for the Fed to keep monetary policy tight for longer. Meanwhile the US dollar maintained its strength. Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX & PM Solutions, sums it up nicely today: “The dollar always trades at the level which suits the US best." 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:20 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 05:50 FX and metals update by Thomas Caflisch (Head of FX & PM Solutions) 08:39 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 7, 2023 · 11 min
Brent oil at a new high this year – quo vadis from here?
Good news on the US economy was bad news for US equities yesterday as increased interest rate expectations weighed on stocks. An expanded ban on using iPhones in China also weighed on market sentiment, and this is also spilling over to Asian markets that are a sea of red this Thursday. European luxury stocks were lower yesterday as Richemont’s chairman warned of the impact of high inflation on local demand in Europe. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, notes that brent oil at USD 90 is detached from fundamentals even as sentiment on the black gold has improved. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:37 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 06:07 Oil market by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research) 10:39 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 6, 2023 · 12 min
Equities under pressure as bond yields, oil and the dollar all rise
After Saudi Arabia and Russia both pledged to extend their supply cuts until the end of the year, oil has rallied, pushing yields higher and interrupting the rally in equities. Meanwhile, Eurozone economic data continues to come in below expectations. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, explains what this means for the European Central Bank's interest rate decision next week. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:45 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 06:19 Next week’s ECB meeting by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research) 11:02 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 5, 2023 · 10 min
China optimism fades on weak data print
As sluggish demand continues to plague the Chinese economy, investor sentiment takes a renewed hit on more disappointing data out of China. Today’s Caixin PMI data shows that China's services activity in August expanded at the slowest pace in eight months, with stimulus efforts so far unable to kickstart consumption. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides us with an update on the latest from the world of digital assets. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 05:46 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) 09:05 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Sep 4, 2023 · 10 min
Economic stimulus from China boosts equities
After US labour market data drove up stock prices on Friday, today it is China and its government's measures intended to prop up its ailing economy that are driving market sentiment. In commodities, oil prices are trading at levels last seen in November on fears over supply cuts by the OPEC+ group and strong economic data from China and the US pointing to strong demand for oil. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is struggling after the US SEC said it was delaying decisions on Bitcoin ETFs for another 45 days. US markets are closed today for the Labor Day holiday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins today’s show and talks about the US dollar, bond yields and investing in September. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 05:32 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research) 09:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.