Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

Dave Keller, CMT

On the Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller, CMT, keeps things real as he breaks down what’s moving the markets and why it matters to investors. With a genuine, down-to-earth approach, Dave chats with top investment experts about what they’re seeing in the markets and digs into the psychology that shapes our investing choices. It’s not just market talk—it’s about helping you understand the bigger picture and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just market-curious, tune in for straightforward discussions and actionable tips for upgrading your investing game.

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August 29 · 39 min
The Founder Factor | Selling Hired CEOs with Lauren Cassidy
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Lauren Cassidy, Founder and CIO of Founder ETFs. Recorded in late August 2026. Lauren details her proprietary "Founder Factor Framework," explaining how her team filters thousands of founder-led companies down to the top 100 based on fundamental quality and valuation metrics. We dig into the stark difference between conservative hired managers and visionary founders, why her research shows that a stock should be sold the moment a founder steps down (using Viking Cruises as a prime example), and how the recent software "SaaSpocalypse" created a massive valuation reset for AI-integrated software companies like Datadog and Palantir. The conversation also explores the danger of the "Metaverse pivot," navigating the SpaceX IPO, and why implementing an 80% systematic/20% discretionary strategy is the ultimate behavioral guardrail for investors. If you enjoyed today's episode, please check out these links! Founders 100 ETF: https://www.founderetfs.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • The fundamental difference in capital allocation and risk tolerance between a visionary original founder and a conservative hired corporate manager • Filtering the universe: How the "Founder Factor Framework" narrows 1,000 eligible founder-led securities down to an actively managed 100-stock portfolio • Navigating the software "SaaSpocalypse": Why the initial panic that "AI will replace software" created a generational valuation reset for companies like Datadog and Palantir • The absolute sell signal: Why 27 years of data shows you must sell a stock immediately when a founder announces they are stepping down (e.g., Viking Cruises) • Avoiding the "Growth in Disguise" trap: How a disciplined focus on cash flow, moats, and the "Rule of 40" separates true founder alpha from passive Nasdaq 100 exposure • Evaluating the SpaceX IPO: Balancing visionary potential against initial high-valuation hurdles and free cash flow generation • The 80/20 behavioral guardrail: Why keeping a process 80% systematic and 20% discretionary protects investors from emotional panic at market extremes • The Mark Zuckerberg metaverse pivot: Understanding the unique "moral authority" a founder has to drastically reverse course and shift corporate strategy overnight 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
August 24 · 39 min
The Weight of the Evidence | Tech Mania Tips with Katie Stockton
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Katie Stockton, Founder of Fairlead Strategies. Recorded in mid-August 2026. Katie shares how she transitioned from a subjective, narrative-driven technical analyst into a highly disciplined, rules-based portfolio manager. We dig into why technical analysis isn't about predicting the future, but rather putting the "weight of the evidence" in your favor to ensure you never stay on the wrong side of a trend. The conversation explores the mechanics behind her Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK)—which equal-weights sectors to provide necessary ballast against massive mega-cap tech concentration—and how she uses multiple timeframes to reconcile lagging moving averages with contrarian DeMark exhaustion indicators. We also discuss the strategy behind her newly launched Tactical Bitcoin ETF (BNAV), applying traditional trend-following rules to the extreme volatility and consolidation phases of crypto. If You've enjoyed today's interview with Katie Stockton, please check out one of these Links! Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF: https://www.fairleadfunds.com/ Amplify Fairlead Tactical Bitcoin ETF: https://amplifyetfs.com/bnav/ 📈 Topics Covered • Shifting from prediction to probabilities: Why technical analysis is fundamentally about recognizing when the evidence has changed to keep trends on your side • The hierarchy of technical indicators: Why price and trend must always supersede momentum and breadth in a rules-based system • Managing the "tech-heavy" benchmark problem: Using an equal-weight tactical sector approach (via the TACK ETF) to provide portfolio ballast and capture rotations into Energy or Materials • Reconciling conflicting signals: How to balance lagging moving averages with contrarian DeMark exhaustion indicators across multiple timeframes • Overcoming the fear of "Overbought": Why an overbought RSI reading in a primary uptrend is often the beginning of a massive run rather than a sell signal • The tactical approach to Bitcoin: Applying trend-following technicals to a 24/7 global commodity characterized by prolonged consolidations and explosive volatility • Removing emotional bias: Why adopting a systematic, rules-based process is the ultimate defense against confirmation bias and behavioral "bonehead" mistakes 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
August 17 · 44 min
Avoid the Momentum Trap | Find True Value with Kevin Abbott
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Kevin Abbott, Senior Sector Research Strategist at State Street Investment Management and former Fidelity colleague. Recorded in August 2026. Kevin breaks down why the "AI" label is no longer a monolithic rising tide, emphasizing the critical need to identify the winners and losers as massive hyperscaler spending trickles down into cloud computing backlogs and infrastructure hardware (like semiconductors and memory). We explore why the software sector was "sold off indiscriminately" as business models faced AI disruption, how negative free cash flow isn't always a death knell if long-term analyst estimates hold strong, and the structural advantages of using sector rotation for risk management. The conversation also explores why investors must avoid getting "swept up in the momentum of the moment" by anchoring their decisions with a stable, uncorrelated sector framework. State Street Sector Insights: https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/capabilities/equities/sector-investing/select-sector-etfs State Street on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/state-street-investment-management/ 📈 Topics Covered • Differentiating the AI ecosystem: Why "AI" is no longer a monolithic block, and how to spot the actual winners in cloud computing backlogs and infrastructure hardware • Unpacking the hyperscaler spending boom: Why massive CapEx and negative free cash flow (similar to Amazon in 2020) can still yield long-term returns • The indiscriminate software sell-off: How AI disrupted traditional seat-based software models, creating mispriced opportunities for contrarian buyers • Evaluating the "circular financing" risk: Monitoring debt levels and free cash flow in legacy tech names like Oracle • The stability of the sector framework: Why the 11 GICS sectors provide a far more consistent tracking mechanism than rapidly shifting factor models (like Value or Growth) • Strategic sector correlations: How to hedge a tech-heavy index by maintaining core exposure to negatively correlated sectors like Energy, Staples, and Real Estate • The four-legged stool of investing: Balancing Fundamental, Technical, Quantitative, and Behavioral inputs to avoid making the wrong decisions • Generating yield in a low-dividend market: Utilizing premium income sector ETFs (like XLKI) for retirees seeking both market exposure and cash flow 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
August 14 · 41 min
Baking the Deficit | Investor Recipes for Success with Callie Cox
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Callie Cox, Chief Market Strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Recorded August 11th 2026. Callie shares her data-driven approach to why optimism is a long-term investor's greatest advantage—and how to build a disciplined framework to ensure that optimism doesn't bleed into dangerous complacency. We dig into her brilliant "chocolate chip cookie" metaphor for understanding the U.S. national deficit, the massive shift of capital from public exchanges to private markets, and why an investor's primary job is filtering out financial media noise. The conversation also explores the resilient strength of corporate earnings six years post-COVID, the rising term premium in long-term Treasury yields, and why Wall Street's year-end S&P 500 price targets are nothing more than a marketing tool. If you enjoyed today's interview with Callie (I know I certainly did) be sure to help out by checking these fantastic links! Callie's newsletter: https://www.optimisticallie.com/ Follow Callie on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callie-cox-553a1a28/ 📈 Topics Covered • Why historical data proves that long-term optimism is a statistical advantage, and how to avoid the trap of market complacency • Evaluating the 2026 earnings season: Sustaining 20% growth rates and navigating the divergence between mega-cap tech and consumer staples like McDonald's • The "Chocolate Chip Cookie" metaphor: How the U.S. national deficit operates like a binge-eating stomachache, slowly creeping into 30-year Treasury yields • Navigating the explosion of private markets: Weighing the illiquidity and high fees of private credit and equity against public market returns • Why 90% of financial headlines don't matter, and how to build an individualized investment framework to filter out the noise • The myth of the year-end price target: Why grasping for S&P 500 forecasts distracts investors from long-term generational wealth building • Transitioning from an emotion-based to an evidence-based process: Using probabilistic exercises to identify portfolio blind spots 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
August 7 · 34 min
Three Companies Own the World | The Memory Play with Howard Chan
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Howard Chan, CEO of Kurv Investment Management. Recorded August 4th 2026. Howard breaks down why highly specialized memory chips (High Bandwidth Memory) have become the ultimate bottleneck in the AI infrastructure buildout, explaining how hyperscalers are driving up costs across the entire consumer electronics ecosystem. We dig into the massive physical constraints of expanding semiconductor supply, why the global memory market is dominated by a tight three-company oligopoly, and how to gain pure-play exposure to this theme through the new KMEM ETF. The conversation also explores how to rethink the traditional 60/40 portfolio by using institutional-style covered call strategies to harvest volatility premia and generate synthetic income from traditionally non-yielding assets like mega-cap tech and gold. If you enjoyed today's episode with our Guest Howard Chan, check out this link to Kurv ETFs: https://www.kurvinvest.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Why High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is critical for reducing AI "hallucinations" and maintaining context in frontier models like ChatGPT and Claude • The physical and capital constraints limiting new chip supply, including $50 billion fab costs and multi-year ASML equipment backlogs • How the pivot to AI memory is crowding out traditional chip manufacturing, driving up prices for consumer electronics like Xbox, Nintendo, and Apple devices • The three-company oligopoly controlling 90% of the world's memory chips: Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix • Navigating the limitations of single-country Korean ETFs and the impact of SK Hynix's recent US cross-listing • The dangers of excessive retail leverage in semiconductor momentum trades (and the recent margin call wipeouts in global markets) • Rethinking covered calls: How institutional call spread strategies allow investors to harvest volatility premia (income) without completely capping upside potential • Modernizing the 60/40 portfolio by generating synthetic yield from traditionally non-income producing assets like growth tech and precious metals 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
August 3 · 38 min
Fear, Greed, and Earnings | Charting 2026 with Mary Ellen McGonagle
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Mary Ellen McGonagle, President of MEM Investment Research and former colleague of legendary investor William O'Neill. Recorded July 29th 2026. Mary Ellen shares timeless investing wisdom on how fear and greed continue to drive the markets despite today's information overload. The conversation explores how to navigate the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO using historical chart analogs (like Meta/Facebook), the transition into "Phase 2" of the AI trade where actual revenue generation dictates market winners, and the critical importance of a strict sell discipline using daily RSI and moving averages. We also dig into seasonal summer volatility, identifying the "haves and have-nots" in the software sector, and a brilliant strategy for reverse-engineering passive ETF fund flows to uncover hidden individual stock breakouts. If you've enjoyed today's episode, please check out these links! - How to Make Money in Stocks by William O'Neil https://amzn.to/4yK1bZ7 - Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust, 1982-2004 by Maggie Mahar - MEM Investment Research: https://meminvestmentresearch.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Timeless lessons from William O'Neill: Why fear, greed, and earnings remain the ultimate market drivers (the CANSLIM methodology) • Navigating information overload: How to filter the modern financial "fire hose" down to actionable technical insights • The SpaceX IPO playbook: Why waiting for profitability and a proper base formation beats chasing the initial euphoric spike • Entering Phase 2 of the AI trade: The shift from speculative infrastructure to actualized revenue, usage, and eventual quantum computing • Developing a strict sell discipline: Using daily RSI and 50-day moving averages to lock in profits on parabolic names like Micron • Summer seasonality: Why August brings historical volatility and how the fall often sparks renewed tech leadership (the classic "payphone indicator") • The software sector rotation: Differentiating between AI-enhancing "haves" (cybersecurity) and obsolete "have-nots" • A clever stock-picking hack: Tracking passive ETF fund flows (like the MOO Agribusiness ETF) to identify strong underlying individual holdings • Gauging true market breadth: Why the Nasdaq 100 Bullish Percent Index hitting the 30% floor signals a hidden bullish bounce despite index-level deterioration 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
July 31 · 31 min
Credit, Oil, and AI | Playing Offense with JoAnne Bianco
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave sits down with JoAnne Bianco, Senior Investment Strategist at BondBlox. Recorded July 28th 2026. JoAnne shares her deep fixed-income expertise to help investors navigate the current credit environment, detailing why resilient corporate earnings and low default rates continue to support a "sweet spot" in BBB to single-B debt. The conversation explores the hidden risks of circular financing in the AI infrastructure buildout (drawing stark parallels to the early 2000s telecom bubble), the rising accessibility of middle-market private credit for everyday investors, and why elevated yields have transformed bonds from defensive portfolio insurance into a truly offensive asset class. They also discuss redefining the classic 60/40 portfolio and why focusing on income over duration is the ultimate key to managing interest rate volatility. If you enjoyed today's interview with JoAnne, please check out Bondbloxx ETFs! https://bondbloxxetf.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Why corporate credit conditions remain structurally strong with low default and distress rates across the BBB to single-B "sweet spot" • Drawing historical parallels between the early 2000s telecom overbuild and today's "circular financing" in AI infrastructure CapEx • Shifting fixed income from defense to offense: How elevated yields and coupon income are driving total returns • Rethinking the traditional 60/40 portfolio in an era of historically high equity P/E ratios and concentrated stock market leadership • The mechanics and benefits of private credit: Accessing middle-market CLOs, floating-rate assets, and lower-volatility yields • Why chasing long-duration US Treasuries poses a massive, underappreciated risk to investors in the current interest rate regime • Implementing a "Core and Explore" bond strategy: Enhancing a standard aggregate base with active bets in BB corporates and short-duration emerging markets • Identifying the ultimate red flags in the credit markets, including debt-financed M&A and concentrated speculative issuance 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
July 27 · 38 min
The Socioeconomic Switch | Midterm Market '26 with Mish Schneider
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Mish Schneider, Director of Trading Education at Market Gauge. Recorded July 23rd 2026. Mish shares her unique "Economic Modern Family" framework for diagnosing the true health of the US economy beyond mega-cap tech leadership. We dig into why small caps ("Grandpa Russell") have shown surprising relative strength compared to overextended tech indices, the resurgence of agricultural commodities as primary inflation barometers, and how geopolitics and El Niño droughts are fueling higher food prices. The conversation also explores the impending sentiment "switch" from "everything is fine" optimism to inflation-driven anxiety, gold's key technical pivot near $4,000/oz, and her new AI-powered short-form educational series, Trades of Our Lives. 📈 Topics Covered • The "Economic Modern Family" framework: Gauging the US domestic economy through "inside sectors" rather than mega-cap tech • Small-cap relative strength: Why "Grandpa Russell" (IWM) holding key technical levels reflects optimism in domestic manufacturing • The semiconductor cycle: Navigating CapEx pushback, data center fatigue, and consolidation in tech leadership • The agricultural commodity breakout: How El Niño droughts, fertilizer costs, and oil prices are driving DBA, wheat, and soybeans higher • Sugar as the ultimate economic barometer: Why watching soft commodities reveals true socioeconomic distress and inflation • The sentiment "switch": Preparing for the market shift from "buy-the-dip" optimism to macro anxiety • Re-allocating to Gold: Why holding the $4,000/oz level marks a key pivot point for safe-haven positioning • Midterm election seasonality: Historical market cycles, geopolitical risks, and navigating Q3/Q4 volatility • Trades of Our Lives: Using short-form AI video and soap-opera dramedy to teach trading literacy to the next generation of investors 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
July 24 · 44 min
The Quantitative Richter Scale | 2026 Multi-Factor Modeling with Steve Cress
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Steve Cress, Head of Quantitative Research at Seeking Alpha. Recorded July 21st 2026. Steve explains how quantitative methodologies eliminate emotional bias and act as an early-warning "Richter scale" for broader market corrections. We dig into why momentum remains the single strongest historical predictive factor, how his team's disciplined multi-factor model has consistently outperformed dynamic hedge funds like Bridgewater, and the staggering data behind buying top-tier "Strong Buy" stocks during a 15% market drawdown. The conversation also explores the launch of the new Quant Growth and Income product, how macro shifts like interest rates naturally bake themselves into consensus EPS revisions, and why generative AI still hasn't managed to beat a purely data-driven, bottom-up quant approach at stock picking. If you enjoyed our episode today, please make sure to check out our Market Misbehaviour collaboration with Seeking Alpha! These links will give you a unique bonus off just for being a podcast viewer. Seeking Alpha Premium: https://marketmisbehavior.com/seekingalpha Alpha Picks: https://marketmisbehavior.com/alphapicks 📈 Topics Covered • How quantitative models act as an early-warning "Richter scale" for sector rotations and market corrections • The historical data on buying the dip: Why buying top quant stocks during a 15% market drawdown creates generational wealth • Breaking down Seeking Alpha's five-factor model: Value, Growth, Profitability, EPS Revisions, and Momentum • Why momentum consistently ranks as the most powerful predictive market factor over the last 250 years • The danger of dynamic factor weighting: Why disciplined, static models often outperform complex hedge fund algorithms • How macro shifts (like rising interest rates or oil prices) are naturally priced into the model via consensus analyst EPS revisions • Assessing AI valuations on a stock-by-stock basis: Why names like Micron and SanDisk outranked Nvidia in the value grade • Launching the "Quant Growth and Income" model to capture non-tech sector rotations (like Financials) • The behavioral advantage of quant investing: Eliminating narrative bias, CEO sales pitches, and emotional panic selling • The intersection of generative AI and quantitative finance (and why AI hasn't beaten the models yet) 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
July 17 · 36 min
Investing is Not Sports | 2026 Small Cap Inefficiencies with Chris Tessin
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Chris Tessin, Founder and Managing Partner at Acuitas Investments. Recorded July 14th 2026 Chris breaks down why the often-ignored small and microcap space is currently the richest corner of the market for generating alpha. We dig into how the glaring lack of Wall Street analyst coverage creates massive inefficiencies for active managers to exploit, and how a "multi-manager" approach can smooth out volatility by blending complementary investment styles. The conversation also explores the critical differences between the Russell 2000 and S&P 600 benchmarks, how the AI boom is creating "picks and shovels" opportunities in small-cap industrials, and why performance chasing fails because "investing is not sports." If you enjoyed this interview, please check out Chris Tessin's work at: https://acuitasfunds.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Why the glaring lack of Wall Street analyst coverage in small and microcaps creates massive alpha opportunities • Unpacking the "multi-manager" approach: How blending complementary managers removes single-manager volatility and smooths the ride • The critical difference between the Russell 2000 and the S&P 600 (and why the S&P's profitability/quality screen matters) • Understanding the "Russell Rebalance": How the pruning process works as stocks grow out of the index • Finding AI "picks and shovels" plays in the small-cap industrial sector rather than chasing overvalued mega-cap tech stocks • Why investing is not sports: The psychological dangers of bandwagoning and performance chasing in your portfolio • The structural argument for maintaining a permanent, evergreen allocation to small and microcap stocks 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
July 14 · 42 min
Let the Stock Tell You What to Do | Tune Out The Macro Noise with Tony Gallea
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by market veteran Tony Gallea, CEO of Working Profit and author of the classic investment text Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered. Recorded July 9th 2026. Tony draws on his illustrious 45-year career at Morgan Stanley to help investors tune out overwhelming macro noise and focus on locating structurally undervalued assets. We dig into his grounded take on the AI trade—likening generative AI to an overeager, unpaid intern prone to rookie mistakes—and analyze why the semiconductor boom is a classic "pig through the python" cycle. The conversation also explores Tony's early days updating printed Mansfield charts by hand in the late 1970s, his disciplined process for separating genuine value from dangerous value traps using activist catalysts, and why letting the stock price tell you what to do is vastly superior to getting lost in complex macro forecasting. Working Profit newsletter https://workingprofit.com/ Contrarian Investing https://amzn.to/4peRYn5 Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered https://amzn.to/4yfdZX3 📈 Topics Covered • Tony's realistic perspective on the AI trade: Treating large language models as eager, junior research interns whose work cannot be blindly trusted • The "pig through the python" capital expenditure cycle of data centers and semiconductors, drawing stark psychological parallels to the 2000 dot-com bubble • Embracing a pure stock-picker's mindset: Looking at the market as a fluid system of "source of funds vs. use of funds" to buy uncool, defensive assets at deep discounts • Deconstructing value traps: Combining deep asset calculations (like Target's real estate or Honeywell's sum-of-the-parts setup) with near-term activist investor catalysts • Tuning out the macro noise: Why trying to factor in the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions with Iran, and election-year defense sector gyrations introduces unnecessary uncertainty • Old-school technical analysis: Reflecting on the pre-digital era of the 1970s and 1980s, where practitioners queued at the office door for weekly printed Mansfield chart binders • The critical baseline decision: Forcing yourself to define whether you are operating on a short-term trading lease or a long-term investment horizon 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
July 9 · 35 min
The Glass-Half-Full Trap? | 2026 Iran Complacency & Inflation with Jeff Klingelhofer
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave sits down with fixed-income portfolio manager and veteran Fed observer Jeff Klingelhofer of Aristotle Pacific Capital. Recorded July 7th 2026. Jeff shares his perspective on the monumental regime shift at the Federal Reserve following Kevin Warsh’s first official FOMC meeting and press conference in June. We pull back the curtain on the Fed's "triple mandate," why the era of aggressive forward guidance and central bank transparency is likely coming to an end, and why the market's "glass-half-full" complacency regarding the conflict with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz introduces significant hidden risk. The conversation also breaks down the structural mechanics of the flattening yield curve, why a rate hike is currently more statistically probable than a cut, and how to intelligently structure the 40% fixed-income sleeve of a balanced portfolio using intermediate-duration Treasuries yielding mid-5% to low-6% returns. 📈 Topics Covered • Navigating the Fed's learning curve: Assessing incoming Chair Kevin Warsh's initial policy moves and the formation of five new task forces • The true definition of the Federal Reserve’s triple mandate: Balancing price stability, maximum employment, and moderate long-term interest rates • The unwinding of Fed transparency: Why a high-inflation environment requires significantly less forward guidance than the zero-rate eras of the past • Analyzing Jerome Powell's historical legacy: Major wins during the global pandemic balanced against being too slow to acknowledge systemic inflation in 2021–2022 • Deconstructing the yield curve: How Warsh's inflation-fighting credibility is driving front-end rates up while narrowing long-term uncertainty • Debunking rate-cut expectations: Why the Fed is likely to remain completely on hold indefinitely unless a full-blown economic recession materializes • Geopolitical complacency: The dangerous disconnect between active Middle East tensions, erratic oil prices, and baseline market expectations • The structural strength of the US Dollar: Evaluating interest rate differentials and the rising cost of servicing US national debt (now consuming 20% of revenue) • Redefining the 60/40 portfolio: Positioning into high-quality, intermediate-duration (3-to-7 year) credit as a true defensive asset ballast 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
July 5 · 46 min
Entry Points Are Absolute | 2026 Minimalist Charting with Carter Worth
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by legendary technical analyst Carter Worth, Founder and CEO of Worth Charting and CNBC's "Chart Master." Recorded July 1st 2026. Carter shares his timeless, price-and-volume-centric approach to market analysis, stripping away the noise of macro headlines and complex oscillators. We dig into why context is the ultimate lens for understanding price action, the enduring value of hand-drawing charts to truly feel the rhythm of institutional money flow, and how the current market's severe tech bifurcation signals a classic "shooting the generals last" environment. The conversation also explores Carter's core risk management principle that "entry points are absolute, exit points are subjective," alongside the exact data-science rules driving his newly launched Worth Charting Options Income ETF (WRTH). If you enjoyed this episode's insights and would like to dive deeper, please check out Carter's website at: https://www.worthcharting.com/ Also check out the Worth Charting Options ETF!: https://worthchartinggroup.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • The fundamental philosophy of price action: Why the study of price and volume ultimately trumps corporate fundamentals • Contextualizing the 2026 market sequence: Interpreting June’s sloppy, sideways consolidation as a healthy, normative pause following May’s aggressive post-conflict recovery • Minimalist technical tools: Eliminating analytical clutter by focusing strictly on the high, low, close, volume, relative strength, and the 150-day moving average • Lessons from mentor Vincent Boening: Embracing the "lost art" of updating graph paper charts by hand to accurately gauge the physical behavior of capital • The fragility of tech bifurcation: Navigating a market where investors cluster into a shrinking handful of overextended semiconductor generals while abandoning entire software spaces • The contrarian case for energy: Why severe relative underperformance has left defensive giants like Exxon and Chevron "so bad they're good" contrarian buys • Managing the downside: Why there is nothing wrong with being wrong, but why sticking with a high-volume gap-down is a catastrophic error • Inside the WRTH ETF: Utilizing cash-secured, out-of-the-money strangles on large-caps specifically after a 10% earnings gap to capture immediate volatility crush and time decay 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
July 4 · 37 min
Separation of Money and State | 2026 Decentralized Finance with Mike Willis
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Mike Willis, CEO of Cyber Hornet ETFs. Recorded June 30th 2026. Mike shares his journey from spending 30 years in traditional finance (TradFi) to fully embracing decentralized finance (DeFi) after diving into the immutable math behind Bitcoin. We dig into the stark contrast between unchecked fiat currency debasement and Bitcoin's absolute scarcity, why the massive energy expenditure used for mining is actually a foundational security feature, and the structural advantages of a 75/25 (S&P 500/Bitcoin) portfolio allocation. The conversation also explores how Cyber Hornet's monthly rebalancing mechanism acts as a vital guardrail to protect clients from devastating "crypto winters" while still allowing them to capture outsized upside. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 🎯 Upgrade your market awareness with Seeking Alpha Premium https://marketmisbehavior.com/seekingalpha 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior 📈 Topics Covered • Mike's transition from Wall Street traditional finance to embracing Bitcoin and the DeFi ecosystem • The contrast between the Federal Reserve's unchecked monetary printing and Bitcoin's hard-capped 21-million coin scarcity • Why the significant electricity cost required for Bitcoin mining (roughly $53,000 per coin) serves as a critical network feature, not a bug • The psychology behind Cyber Hornet's BBB ETF: Combining 75% S&P 500 with 25% Bitcoin to find the "sleep-at-night" volatility sweet spot • Why a strict monthly rebalancing strategy is the ultimate key to surviving 50-70% drawdowns during "crypto winters" • Why pure technical analysis works exceptionally well for analyzing Bitcoin due to its lack of corporate management or product cycles • How decentralized, borderless networks offer frictionless financial sovereignty to the two billion unbanked people worldwide 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
June 26 · 43 min
When Math Meets the Market | The Kelly Criterion in 2026 with Andrew Skatoff
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Andrew Skatoff, CEO and CIO of Bancreek Capital Advisors. Andrew shares his journey from traditional, deep-dive fundamental value investing to a highly systematic, quantitative approach. We dig into the data science behind the Kelly Criterion and how to apply gambling's "edge and odds" to optimize stock position sizing without risking gambler's ruin. The conversation explores the massive tax and behavioral benefits of the ETF wrapper, why the sweet spot for portfolio concentration sits between 30 and 50 stocks, and the strategy behind his new Billionaire's Club ETF, which uses founder wealth creation as a definitive signal for structural business advantages. If you enjoyed today's interview with Andrew Skatoff, be sure to check out his firms Billionaire's Club ETF! https://www.billionairesclubetf.com/ And don't forget the book we discussed, Fortune's Formula. If you would like to pick up a copy for yourself, or just see what the book is all about, check out this link! https://amzn.to/3SpOq5h 📈 Topics Covered • Andrew's transition from traditional fundamental value investing to a data-driven systematic approach • Understanding the Kelly Criterion: How to mathematically size positions based on edge and odds • The danger of going "Super Kelly" and why over-betting destroys long-term compounding • Identifying structurally advantaged businesses (monopolies, high margin stability) using volatility metrics • Why the ideal portfolio concentration sweet spot sits between 25 and 50 stocks • The psychological and tax advantages of using the ETF wrapper to eliminate behavioral anchoring and manage turnover • Lessons from the Great Financial Crisis: Why the "path" of volatility matters just as much as the overall return • The strategy behind the new Billionaire's Club ETF: Using founder wealth creation as a long-term momentum and durability signal 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
June 24 · 46 min
You have to Feel the Charts | Market Momentum in 2026 with John Kolovos
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by John Kolovos, Chief Technical Strategist at Macro Risk Advisors and President of the CMT Association. Recorded in late June 2026. John shares his top strategies for navigating the mature phases of a bull market and how to spot crucial momentum divergences when the "character" of the market begins to change. We dig into why momentum is the only true leading indicator, the danger of the US Dollar Index breaking out and flattening the yield curve, and how to combine textbook measured moves with Elliott Wave extensions to pick precise upside targets. The conversation also explores how to embrace uncomfortable market concentration using relative strength and honors the lost art of hand-drawing Point and Figure charts. 📈 Topics Covered • Understanding the "Momentum Trifecta": Combining price, volume, and breadth to confirm buy/sell signals • Recognizing "Good" vs. "Bad" overbought conditions when exiting a V-bottom or entering a mature trend • Why relative strength is the ultimate tool for navigating uncomfortable market concentration in institutional portfolios • How a US Dollar Index (DXY) breakout above 105.5 could aggressively flatten the yield curve and trigger a macro "risk-off" event • Why seasonal weakness (the "Sell in May" strategy) should make you highly skeptical of unseasonal market strength • The tactical case for a pullback in crude oil and a broader secular bearish trend in precious metals (Gold/Silver) • Combining traditional Edwards and Magee measured moves with Elliott Wave Fibonacci extensions to set price targets • Remembering the legacy of Steve Shobin and the "lost art" of hand-drawing charts to feel the rhythm of the tape 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
June 18 · 45 min
It's Different This Time! Right? | 2026's Market (bubble) with Dave Lundgren
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Dave Lundgren, founder and Chief Market Strategist at MOTR Capital Management & Research. Recorded in mid-June 2026. Dave Lundgren shares his systematic approach to combining momentum and trend following to build necessary guardrails against our worst investing impulses. We dig into why trying to completely eliminate your behavioral biases is a guaranteed way to fail, how the Jurassic Park franchise perfectly explains the storytelling psychology of market bubbles, and why investors must learn to operate in a dual environment—riding the robust bull market in leadership while avoiding the stealth bear market in everything else. The conversation also explores the fractal nature of trends and why the ultimate secret to navigating a bubble is to act as the "Sentinel," staring strictly at the market structure "fence" rather than the monsters of overvaluation. 📈 Topics Covered • The MOTR philosophy: Combining momentum and trend to systematically identify true market leadership • Why systematic investing doesn't eliminate behavioral biases, but rather builds essential guardrails to navigate them • The "Tuning Fork" concept: Learning to recognize your own emotional impulses and objectively test them against your process • The reality of backtesting: Why capturing the top decile is a more sustainable strategy than chasing the number one performing stock • The Jurassic Park metaphor: How market bubbles follow the exact same storytelling structure throughout history, just with different characters • Operating in a dual market: Navigating the robust bull market in AI leadership alongside the stealth bear market in lagging sectors • The "Sentinel" approach: Ignoring the news, the narratives, and the monsters of excessive leverage to focus strictly on the "fence" of market structure If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to go check out The Official podcast of the CMT Association Fill the Gap! https://cmtassociation.buzzsprout.com/ 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
June 12 · 48 min
The Speculation Generation | 2026 Market Concentration with Jeff Huge
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Jeff Huge, Chief Investment Strategist at JWH Investment Partners. Recorded June 9th 2026. Jeff brings the hard data to explain why the current market concentration and speculative options trading represent an unprecedented historical extreme. We dig into the private-equity accounting methods artificially boosting mega-cap tech earnings, why the S&P 500’s return is completely flat if you subtract the semiconductor sector, and how the Elliott Wave theory signals a terminal market top. The conversation also explores the looming oil supply shock caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure, why rotating tech profits into defensive sectors is like pouring "buckets of capital into thimbles," and how to utilize a 25/25/25/25 "Perfect Portfolio" framework to protect your wealth. 📈 Topics Covered • Unprecedented market concentration: The top 10 stocks now make up 41% of the S&P 500 (matching the dot-com bubble peak) • The stark reality that the S&P 500 is completely flat off the March lows if you subtract the semiconductor sector • How equity ownership accounting (like mega-cap investments in Anthropic) is artificially boosting tech earnings beats • The "Speculation Generation": How retail call option volume on the S&P 500 has massively doubled to $2.6 trillion • Using Elliott Wave theory to identify a terminal "ending diagonal triangle" pattern, signaling a major market top • Why rotating massive tech profits into tiny defensive sectors (real estate, staples) is like pouring "buckets of capital into thimbles" • The hidden structural oil shortage caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure and the 12-16 week lag before consumers feel it at the pump • Navigating volatility with the "Perfect Portfolio" framework: Equally weighting 25% across equities, fixed income, cash, and alternatives (commodities/REITs) 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
June 8 · 39 min
Pay Less Attention to the News | Getting the Markets Right with JC O'Hara
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by JC O'Hara, Chief Technical Strategist at Roth Capital Partners. Recorded June 4th 2026. JC shares his deep institutional experience to help investors understand why current market valuations aren't the ultimate timing tool and how trailing stops must adapt to volatile momentum trends. We dig into why quantitative trend-following models (CTAs) are the "secret rockstars" of this market, the danger of letting media headlines dictate your portfolio, and how to use short-term tools like the NYSE Tick Index to gauge intraday buying pressure. The conversation also explores the massive upcoming SpaceX IPO, looking back at historical analogs like Facebook's shaky debut to understand how to handle the hype of a new listing. 📈 Topics Covered • Why broad valuation metrics are better suited for bear market bottoms rather than timing bull market tops • Adapting trailing stops for momentum markets: Why a static 7% stop-loss will shake you out of a 1,000% gain • Understanding the "boogeyman in the room": Why quantitative trend-following systems (CTAs) are driving current market rotations • Being comfortable with uncomfortably narrow market leadership in year four of a bull market • Using the NYSE Tick Index (and its 20-day smoothed average) to spot intraday institutional buying pressure and market tops • Evaluating the massive upcoming SpaceX IPO by looking at historical analogs like Meta/Facebook's initial public offering • Debunking the "Sell in May" seasonality myth in favor of pure, immediate price action • Why trading based on news headlines (tariffs, COVID, geopolitics) is a surefire way to get the market wrong 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
June 3 · 44 min
When the Market Shakes, Hold Onto Your Horses! | 2026's Volatility with Andrew Horowitz
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Andrew Horowitz, money manager at Horowitz & Company and host of the long-running Disciplined Investor podcast. Recorded May 28th 2026. Andrew shares his perspective on tuning out the 24/7 news cycle and maintaining an objective, long-term mindset. We dig into why the stock market continues to hit all-time highs despite global conflicts and dismal consumer confidence, the hidden impact of government stimulus and "circular financing" fueling big tech earnings, and why paying too much attention to high valuations is a surefire way to miss a bull market. The conversation also explores the danger of getting trapped by economic narratives, why you should never take a stock tip on the golf course, and the ultimate importance of prioritizing process over prediction. 📈 Topics Covered • Navigating the 24/7 financial noise: Why zooming out to long-term charts is crucial for emotional discipline • The disconnect between record-low consumer sentiment (University of Michigan survey) and actual resilient consumer spending • Understanding "circular financing" and vendor financing: How big tech balance sheets are artificially pumping up current earnings • The massive underlying impact of government stimulus (CHIPS Act, Inflation Reduction Act) on corporate profits • Why traditional stock valuations don't matter in a momentum-driven, market-cap-weighted environment • The danger of "narrative bias" and why investors must adapt to the tape rather than fighting it • Why shorting the market as a long-term strategy historically destroys wealth • Process over prediction: Why having a repeatable, quantitative system is better than trying to guess the next market crash If you enjoyed this episode, please check out Andrew's Podcast as well! You can find him here: https://thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/ Also, don't forget to check out DH Unplugged as well for a more unscripted experience!: https://www.dhunplugged.com/ 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

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