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Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, tells Kitco News anchor Jeremy Szafron the Fed's next move is a series of 50 basis point cuts rather than hikes, and that it ends in a recession. He also says gold and silver have become sock puppets to the US stock market.
The US struck Iran again overnight and crude fell anyway. According to McGlone, that is not a contradiction, it is the story, because pricing power in oil has shifted away from OPEC and toward the Western hemisphere. He expects crude to gravitate toward $70, says gold at $4,100 is nothing until it clears $4,500, and names the one commodity he is buying right now.
Recorded July 30 2026
Follow Jeremy Szafron on X: @JeremySzafron (https://twitter.com/JeremySzafron)
Follow Kitco News on X: @KitcoNewsNOW (https://twitter.com/kitconewsnow)
Follow Mike McGlone on X: @mikemcglone11 (https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11)
Chapters:
00:00 Markets Defy War Fears
01:18 Meet Mike McGlone
01:46 Fed Cuts Not Hikes
04:57 Stocks Drive Everything
07:56 Inflation Signal vs Noise
09:59 Oil Bear Case in War
14:04 Western Hemisphere Takes Lead
15:25 Gasoline and Distillate Clues
18:07 China Deflation Pressure
19:54 Treasuries vs Gold Safe Haven
23:21 Second Half Volatility Setup
24:13 Gold Versus Bonds
24:53 Extreme Stretch Hangover
25:51 Correlation Volatility Debate
27:00 Gold's False Rally Playbook
30:29 Natural Gas Mispricing
31:43 Soybeans Supply Reality
33:28 Gold In Other Currencies
35:29 Japan Yen And Treasuries
37:28 Normalization Versus Treasuries
39:16 Silver And Copper Watch
41:20 Metals Are Sock Puppets
41:50 Contrarian Mindset
43:48 Key Levels And Wrap
Also in this interview, according to McGlone: US CPI can reach 0% and crude can fall toward $40, though he says that requires a 10% to 20% drop in the S&P 500 that stays down. Copper falls 20% to 30% if stocks drop 10%, with managed money net long 25% to 27% of open interest, roughly five times normal. January natural gas near four is mispriced and worth exploring purchases, while soybeans near twelve are probably going lower. Gold is at a four-decade high against Treasuries, not against the dollar, and he says $3,000 would be the ideal place to buy it. He calls this a trading year of a lifetime, maybe similar to 2008.
#Gold #Recession #JeremySzafron
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The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.
Disclaimer:
The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.
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