
Ted Oakley: This Cycle Is Ending, I’m 50% in Cash and Treasuries
Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors expects interest rate cuts by mid-2027 as the economy slows, and says gold will like that. But after gold jumped more than $100 on the midterm vote, he's cutting gold miners, he's out of silver, he's selling Google and Microsoft, and he's holding about half his clients' money in cash and Treasuries. Oakley, who has managed money through every cycle since the 1970s, says we're at the end of this cycle and expects weakness for most of 2027. He explains why the "just buy the S&P 500" approach is coming to an end, why commodities are signaling a slowdown, why he sold 20% of his top energy winners, and why he's moving that money into 3- to 5-year Treasuries. He also lays out how he'd invest $1 million in cash right now, why he says the US can't pay off its $40 trillion debt, and the biggest mistake he sees investors over 65 making. His new book with Chance Finucane, Asleep at the Wheel, is due out in early January. Recorded November 4 2026 Follow Jeremy Szafron on X: @JeremySzafron (https://x.com/JeremySzafron) Follow Kitco News on X: @KitcoNewsNOW (https://x.com/KitcoNewsNOW) Follow Oxbow Advisors on X: @Oxbow_Advisors (https://twitter.com/Oxbow_Advisors) CHAPTERS 00:00 Midterm vote: gold, the dollar and stocks react 01:00 Is the market reading the election right? 02:00 "End of this cycle" and a weaker 2027 04:19 Stagflation? Why he expects rate cuts by mid-2027 05:43 The 1929 and 1999 stock market signal 07:09 The top 20 stocks are weakening too 08:49 "Just buy the S&P 500" is coming to an end 10:12 Sell the Nasdaq bounce 10:56 Gold vs. gold miners: why he cut the miners 15:37 Central banks buying, who's selling gold 16:41 Why he's out of silver, and the 18-month wait 18:59 Copper peaked, short uranium 23:13 How to value a gold miner now 24:16 The gold stocks he never sells 25:13 Energy: selling 20% of his top winners 27:01 Where the money goes: 3- to 5-year Treasuries 28:03 When markets fall hard, gold falls too 28:39 Oil, pipelines and the long-term case 30:00 Is this the 1970s? 31:11 How much is in Treasuries now 32:04 Corporate bonds and munis 33:02 Why you need safe money now 34:03 Big tech: just a bounce, selling Google and Microsoft 36:55 Is 4% cash losing to inflation? 39:00 The 30-year Treasury and financial repression 40:16 The debt ceiling, the dollar and gold 41:04 $2 trillion deficits: "never had the guts" 41:38 Housing is stuck 42:44 Is the consumer cracking? 44:21 Lightning round: gold, silver, oil, Bitcoin 49:46 $1 million in cash: only 20% in stocks 52:24 The biggest mistake: too much stock for your age 53:39 The consistency story #gold #stockmarket #interestrates __________________________________________________________________ Like, share, and subscribe to Kitco News—and turn on alerts to stay current with expert interviews, market insights, and breaking news coverage. FOLLOW US: X: https://x.com/kitconewsnow Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kitconews Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/KitcoNews LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/kitconews Listen to the PODCAST on 🎧 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1My4WgtF0ZhUnxkxDLoJof 🎧 Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/kitco-news/id1842889233 🎧 All podcast episodes available here → https://kitconews.buzzsprout.com Visit: https://Kitco.com/ for live gold, silver, and crypto prices, the latest mining news, and macroeconomic insights. Live gold price and chart: https://www.kitco.com/charts/gold Live silver price and chart: https://www.kitco.com/charts/silver Live crypto market data: https://www.kitco.com/price/crypto Learn more about Kitco News: https://www.kitco.com/news/about/ For more information on advertising, sponsorship and marketing promotions – please visit our online media kit at: https://www.kitco.com/advertising Disclaimer: The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video. Disclaimer: The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.
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