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Into the Impossible With Brian Keating

Big Bang Productions Inc.

Think like a physicist. Wonder like a human. Into the Impossible is where Cosmic Conversations happen — uniting Nobel Prize winners, iconoclasts, authors, and technologists to explore reality’s deepest questions. From AI to aliens, from biophysics to the brain, from the cosmos to the multiverse, Brian Keating, Chancellor’s Distinguished Professor of Physics at UC San Diego covers it all.

If you’ve ever asked What’s out there? or What’s next?, this is where curiosity meets clarity.

Learn to think like this. 🎙 Full episodes, notes & more: briankeating.com/podcast

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Thursday · 2 hr 5 min
They Built the Quietest Place on Earth to Find Dark Matter
They Built the Quietest Place on Earth to Find Dark Matter One event in 220 days. That is what the search for dark matter looks like right now. In this episode I talk with Rick Gaitskell, professor of physics at Brown University and a leader on the LZ dark matter experiment, about what it takes to build a detector that can see almost nothing at all: seven tonnes of liquid xenon, a mile of rock in an old gold mine, and shielding so careful that the radon seeping out of ordinary concrete counts as a serious enemy. We get into why the field spent decades hunting the WIMP, what happens to a 3.4 sigma result when you look at it honestly, and why a single event, however beautiful, cannot tell you what you want it to tell you. We also talk about the human side of a project like this. The grad student who waited nine years for data. The physicist who walked away from investment banking. The uncomfortable fact that something like ninety-five percent of research does not work out, and what keeps people going anyway. And the line that sits under all of it: we only get one damn universe, and nature does not care whether your theory is beautiful. Chapters 00:00 One event in 220 days 06:00 Why they named it a WIMP 13:00 Ninety-five percent of research fails 20:00 He left investment banking for this 23:00 You are less than five percent of the universe 30:00 The fifty-year-old idea nobody can kill 45:00 The grad student who waited nine years 58:00 A gold mine and the quietest place on Earth 1:06:00 The radon in your basement is the enemy 1:21:00 The assumption that was hiding the signal 1:32:00 The event, and why they will not call it blinded 1:40:00 How 3.4 sigma becomes 2.6 1:49:00 The fog nobody can scrub 1:56:00 The dark matter we detected in 1956 My books Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir) Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner Galileo's Dialogue (first-ever audiobook) Socials Twitter/X: https://x.com/BrianKeating Substack: https://briankeating.substack.com Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast #intotheimpossible #briankeating #RickGaitskell #darkmatter #physics #AI #emergence #podcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tuesday · 15 min
Dark Matter Has a Problem. So Does MOND.
For 50 years I taught my students that dark matter surrounds the Milky Way in a giant halo, or that Newton’s laws break down at low accelerations. The Gaia satellite just measured something that makes both of those answers uncomfortable. Subscribe if you want science with evidence, not speculation. Gaia has measured over a billion stars. What its third data release shows is that the outer rotation curve of our own galaxy appears to decline in a Keplerian fashion. That should not happen if a dark matter halo is doing what we think it does. It also should not happen if MOND is right, because MOND produces flat curves for isolated galaxies. Both camps predicted something flatter. Neither got it. I walk you through the physics from Kepler to Vera Rubin to Gaia DR3, show you why systematic errors from asymmetric drift, the Large Magellanic Cloud, and the Sagittarius dwarf galaxy matter enormously before anyone draws a conclusion, and lay out the three scenarios that still survive. The most interesting question here is not which side lost. It is why both sides were expecting the wrong curve from our own galaxy. What you’ll hear: -Why the neutrino technically counts as dark matter and why that still leaves most of the problem unsolved -What Kepler’s first law of fatherhood has to do with galactic dynamics -Why Stacy McGaugh and Mordehai Milgrom might be celebrating too soon -What Cepheids, stellar streams, and globular clusters could tell us that Gaia cannot -Whether the Milky Way is too messy to ever give us a clean answer “The question is not which camp won, but why we were both expecting the wrong curve.” — Brian Keating CHAPTERS 00:00 Two solutions. One problem. Neither wins. 02:12 What Vera Rubin actually found 03:18 We're inside the galaxy. That's the problem. 04:24 The asymmetric drift problem 05:04 What Gaia DR3 actually shows 06:34 Why the mass estimate is model-dependent 08:04 MOND: no radius, no problem. Until now. 08:56 Gaia may be saying both sides are wrong 09:24 Flaws lead to new laws 10:22 LMC, Sagittarius, and the galactic warp 12:28 Three viable explanations 12:42 Dark matter adjusts. MOND adjusts. But is that enough? 13:14 What could settle this 14:04 Are we expecting the wrong curve? Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt Have a .edu email and live in the USA? You automatically win a meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon, get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join Related episodes: Stacy McGaugh episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnpyFk2WlME My books: Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir): http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/hi50U9U Galileo’s Dialogue (first-ever audiobook): https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un Twitter/X: https://x.com/BrianKeating Substack: https://briankeating.substack.com Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast #darkmatter #MOND #MilkyWay #cosmology #briankeating #intotheimpossible #physics Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
September 9 · 1 hr 18 min
OpenAI’s Navier–Stokes Claim: Is This What AGI Looks Like? with Emad Mostaque
Did OpenAI just solve Navier–Stokes—and what would that actually mean for AGI? Emad Mostaque joins Brian Keating LIVE to examine the claimed breakthrough, what would count as a verified solution, and whether AI solving a major mathematical problem changes the debate about intelligence—or control. Watch my explainer about AI and the Navier-Stokes problem, including insights from Terry Tao https://youtu.be/je9X59psm6U?si=wGbcLhXmf47jeCHL?sub_confirmation=1 A convincing answer isn’t necessarily a proof. A mathematical breakthrough isn’t automatically AGI. But if this claim holds up, how much should we update our expectations? Emad helped bring Stable Diffusion to the world and signed the letter calling for a pause on frontier AI development. In his previous conversation with Brian and AI safety researcher Roman Yampolskiy, he questioned how such a pause could work—and highlighted swarm intelligence as a particularly dangerous and unpredictable risk. Now we return to the question underneath the excitement: if AI’s capabilities are accelerating, is our ability to understand and control them keeping up? ON THE TABLE: • What exactly is being claimed about Navier–Stokes? • What separates a proposed solution from an accepted mathematical proof? • If the result holds up, does it demonstrate AGI—or something narrower? • Can AI produce discoveries that humans struggle to verify? • What would this change about open-source AI and the argument for a pause? • Are we watching the wrong risk: a single superintelligence, or swarms of AI agents? • What evidence would change Emad’s mind? Bring your questions. We’ll examine the claim, the evidence, and what follows if it’s right. This livestream discusses a claimed result; it does not assume the Millennium Prize Problem has been resolved. FEATURED GUEST: Emad Mostaque on Twitter/X: https://x.com/EMostaque I.I.I. Inc.: https://ii.inc/ Stable Diffusion / Stability AI: https://stability.ai/ Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt Have a .edu email and live in the USA? Claim your meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon for unfiltered bonus content and live monthly Office Hours: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join MY BOOKS: Losing the Nobel Prize: http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/hi50U9U Galileo’s Dialogue audiobook: https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un CONNECT WITH BRIAN: Twitter/X: https://x.com/BrianKeating Substack: https://briankeating.substack.com Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast #OpenAI #NavierStokes #AGI #EmadMostaque #ArtificialIntelligence #BrianKeating #IntoTheImpossible Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
September 1 · 58 min
Roman Yampolskiy vs Emad Mostaque: I Was The Only Optimist - #569
The man who open-sourced the most-used AI image model in history sat down with the man who has spent a decade proving superintelligence cannot be controlled. Brian set up a debate. What emerged was something more unsettling than any debate. Roman Yampolskiy is the computer scientist who coined the term AI safety and author of AI: Unexplainable, Unpredictable, Uncontrollable. Emad Mostaque is the co-founder of Stable Diffusion and the only AI CEO who signed the pause letter. He now says he doesn’t know how a pause could work. Yampolskiy thinks that is the only option left. The question underneath everything is simple: if you have a 50% chance of wiping out civilization and you build it anyway, what are you actually doing? We cover what AI safety researchers actually think the danger is, why nobody has published a paper, filed a patent, or shipped a prototype for controlling a superintelligence, what the Qwen weights being out means for the pause argument, and why Mostaque thinks swarm intelligence is the most dangerous and most unpredictable risk vector we have. What you’ll hear: -Why both guests think P(doom) tells you less than you’d hope -What it means that no company, no lab, and no team has a patent on controlling superintelligence -Why the models the public receives are slightly lobotomized -The difference between an AI swarm and the ASI everyone is debating -Why giving every psychopath access to a cutting-edge intelligence weapon is incoherent safety strategy -What it would actually take to update Yampolskiy’s assessment “We either do it, or we die. There is nothing for you to gain by doing it.” — Roman Yampolskiy CHAPTERS 00:00 A debate that wasn't a debate 00:36 Turing test, AGI, superintelligence: where are we? 02:02 The open source argument nobody wins 03:32 Pause frontier AI forever. Which button? 05:04 P(doom): parameterizing our ignorance 09:02 Nukes are inefficient. AI isn't. 11:46 The lobotomized model problem 18:04 Decade-old problems solved weekly now 26:18 We either do it or we die 31:10 Stop the training or stop the funders 33:34 Lipstick on a Shoggoth 35:50 No paper. No patent. No framework. 39:42 Train only on what you need 44:14 What lowers Mostaque's p(doom)? 52:00 Same future. Two perspectives. Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt Have a .edu email and live in the USA? You automatically win a meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon, get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join Featured Guests: Roman Yampolskiy on Twitter/X: https://x.com/romanyam?lang=en AI: Unexplainable, Unpredictable, Uncontrollable (book): https://www.amazon.com/dp/103257626X MIRI: https://intelligence.org Emad Mostaque on Twitter/X: https://x.com/EMostaque I.I.I. Inc.: https://ii.inc/ Stable Diffusion: https://stability.ai/ My books: Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir): http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/hi50U9U Galileo’s Dialogue (first-ever audiobook): https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un Twitter/X: https://x.com/BrianKeating Substack: https://briankeating.substack.com Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast #AIrisk #aisafety #stablediffusion #RomanYampolskiy #EmadMostaque #briankeating #intotheimpossible Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
August 28 · 1 hr 46 min
The Universe Didn’t Come From Nothing | The Peter McCormack Show
I joined Peter McCormack to dig into one of the deepest unanswered questions in physics: what is time, and why does it only seem to move in one direction? My answer might surprise you. Time may not be a fundamental feature of reality at all, and understanding space, matter, and energy still doesn't mean we understand the universe itself. We cover: - What may have existed before the Big Bang - Why something can't truly come from nothing - How my work with the Simons Observatory could detect gravitational waves from the universe's earliest moments - What dark matter actually means - Why even a film as detail-obsessed as Interstellar still gets the physics wrong. The conversation then turns from cosmic time to human time: mortality, family, meaning, and attention. We get into UFO disclosure, the collapse of institutional trust, and whether AI can ever reproduce the embodied human insight that let Einstein transform physics. My take: AI remains a tool built to serve humanity, and it's time we stop apologizing for humanity's greatness. ——— 📬 Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt 🌠 Have a .edu email and live in the USA 🇺🇸? You automatically win a meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu 🔔 Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 🎯 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon — get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating ⭐ Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join 📚 My books: Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir): http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/hi50U9U Galileo's Dialogue (first-ever audiobook): https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un 🌐 More: 🏄‍♂️ Twitter: https://twitter.com/BrianKeating 📚 Substack https://briankeating.substack.com/ss ✍️ Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog 🎙️ Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast #intotheimpossible #briankeating #science #physics #astronomy #cosmology #podcast #universe Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
August 25 · 1 hr 17 min
The Physics Reason AI Works When It Shouldn’t - #568
The same mathematics that explains why a fridge magnet sticks to your refrigerator also explains why neural networks work when they have no right to. His group did the calculation. Nobody else had. Subscribe if you want science with evidence, not speculation. Goldenfeld is a Professor of Physics at UC San Diego, a Fellow of the Royal Society, and a Member of the National Academy of Sciences who spent 36 years at the University of Illinois applying condensed matter physics to problems everyone else had given up on: why the genetic code is optimal, why early life evolved impossibly fast, and why AI works despite being overparameterized beyond anything classical statistics can explain. The thread connecting all three is one idea: that what emerges from many things together is qualitatively different from the sum of its parts. That idea explains magnetism, AI, the origin of the genetic code, and why life may be inevitable wherever the laws of physics apply. He also argues that what is happening to science right now is not a disagreement about facts but a fracture in how people decide what is true, and that is a more dangerous problem. What you’ll hear: -Why the same phase transition that explains magnetism also explains why AI works at all -Why Francis Crick concluded life must have come from outer space and what Goldenfeld found instead -What horizontal gene transfer has to do with how libraries work -Why Goldenfeld thinks Enceladus is a better bet for life than Europa -The purpose of life, stated as a thermodynamics problem -Why “different is more” is more useful than “more is different” “The impact you make is the ratio of what you do divided by what everybody else does. Minimize the denominator.” — Nigel Goldenfeld CHAPTERS 00:00 AI shouldn't work. It does. 00:56 What is a phase transition? 03:10 What the renormalization group does 08:54 Ising gave up. Wrong dimension. 13:32 Nigel almost met Ising. 40 minutes away. 26:38 AI is the best example of more is different 33:52 Bardeen won two Nobels. The transistor looked like chewing gum. 37:24 The three mysteries Crick couldn't solve 46:20 The genetic code can't evolve. And yet it did. 49:00 How early life evolved like a library 57:06 The purpose of life as a physics problem 01:00:04 Life is physics, not chemistry 01:05:56 Anti-science age. Not because of opinions. 01:13:00 20 seconds with your 20-year-old self 01:17:14 Different is more Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt Have a .edu email and live in the USA? You automatically win a meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon, get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join Featured Guest: Nigel Goldenfeld website: https://guava.physics.ucsd.edu/~nigel/ Lectures on Phase Transitions and the Renormalization Group: https://www.amazon.com/dp/0201554097?lv=shuf&channelId=500&plpRedirect=mhFallbackNigel Goldenfeld on Twitter/X: https://x.com/NigelGoldenfeld My books: Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir): http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/hi50U9U Galileo’s Dialogue (first-ever audiobook): https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un Twitter/X: https://x.com/BrianKeating Substack: https://briankeating.substack.com Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast #intotheimpossible #briankeating #NigelGoldenfeld #physics #AI #originoflife #condensedmatterphysics #podcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
August 18 · 1 hr
Engineering Chair: Most People Should Not Go To College - #567
The system that produces the world’s most important discoveries runs on metrics that nobody agrees on, odds that would stop most people, and mentorship that sometimes looks like cruelty in blue ink. Subscribe if you want science with evidence, not speculation. Lipomi is Professor and Chair of Chemical and Sustainability Engineering at the University of Rochester and the author of Science Nonfiction: Behind the Scenes in University Research. His lab works on organic electronics, materials science, recyclable polymers, and the science of human touch. He trained under George Whitesides at Harvard, one of the most cited chemists who has never won the Nobel Prize. The conversation covers the H-index, what elite mentorship actually looks like when your advisor writes “This is illiterate” in blue ink on your outline, and what the future of academic research versus industry careers looks like in an era of AI, demographic headwinds, and graduate school debt that can’t be discharged in bankruptcy. We also get into homochirality, OLED displays, and why Lipomi thinks the nanotechnology revolution already happened, we just didn’t call it that. What you’ll hear: -Whether the academic system is designed to produce scientists or to filter them out -What is Baumol’s cost disease and why it explains rising tuition costs -Why the nanotechnology revolution already happened and nobody called it that -How nanotechnology is used in cancer drug delivery today versus what science fiction promised -What it actually takes to build a PhD career at the intersection of chemistry, mechanics, and neuroscience -Whether engineering students should be reading Plato — and what countries that skip it are getting right “Find a skill at the intersection of three or more interests that no one else is working on.” — Darren Lipomi CHAPTERS 00:00 He says don't go to college. He runs the department. 01:10 The H-index: imperfect, irreplaceable 02:04 1 in 20 PhDs gets the job 05:42 The meteorite and the origin of life 08:34 Did life's asymmetry come from space? 12:00 Who is an organic materials chemist at 3am? 13:52 The collaboration that started at a coffee shop 15:22 The nanobot revolution already happened 18:24 Nanotechnology inside your body right now 19:08 The $70 billion invention Kodak gave away 22:12 Kodak, Xerox, Bausch + Lomb: what Rochester built 26:06 Working under Whitesides at Harvard 28:54 What he wrote on the outline in blue ink 30:38 Who you work with matters more than what you work on 31:56 Department chair: hostage negotiator, not boss 34:36 Why the department changed its name after 110 years 36:00 The headwinds have never been stronger 38:44 Should engineers read Plato? 39:38 The debt you can't discharge in bankruptcy 40:06 Do you buy Baumol's cost disease? 43:14 Why he had to write the book 48:16 The Fisher-Price camcorder experiment 51:06 Teaching in one sentence. Research in one. 53:42 Losing Darren to Rochester: the Fernando Tatis analogy Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt Have a .edu email and live in the USA? You automatically win a meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon, get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
August 11 · 49 min
John Martinis: The Nobel Physicist Behind Macroscopic Quantum Tunneling - #566
John Martinis won the 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics for proving macroscopic quantum tunneling is real. Less than a year later he’s telling why he left Google’s quantum computing team to start over. Subscribe if you want the physics and the politics of building the impossible. Martinis is the co-founder of Colab and one of the physicists who proved ordinary quantum rules apply to macroscopic systems. He built his career on the same Josephson-junction hardware his Nobel is built on, then led Google’s superconducting-qubit effort, the same team behind Google’s 2019 quantum supremacy claim, before an internal reorg pushed him out. We go into Anthony Leggett’s challenge to Schrödinger’s cat, what decoherence in quantum mechanics really means, and whether quantum computing is the first technology ever born from pure theory rather than experiment. We also cover the internal Google reorg that pushed Martinis out and what he learned about building something new inside a large institution. Whether quantum mechanics applies to the macroscopic world and what it took to prove it Why Martinis thinks quantum computing may be the first technology born from pure theory, not experiment What negative authority means and why it matters for anyone building something new inside a large institution Whether the US can win the quantum computing race against China How Martinis thinks about quantum mechanics interpretations after spending a career inside the math “Always be on the lookout for the impossible, right?” John Martinis CHAPTERS 00:00 The Nobel call that almost wasn't 01:01 How his wife found out before he did 03:32 Anthony Leggett's challenge to Schrödinger's cat 05:53 Why a Josephson junction, not a quantum dot or trapped ion 07:45 Quantized oscillations: the “smoking gun” and Balmer's ghost 08:18 Measuring the system: the resonance experiment 11:21 Systematic effects: what separates a good scientist from a lucky one 13:42 The Ed Ohm story: the man who found the CMB and doubted it 15:01 Wigner's “unreasonably effective” math and the weirdest thing about QM 16:54 The transistor myth: chewing gum, coat hangers, and germanium 17:34 Microwave engineering meets quantum mechanics 19:26 Decoherence: the friction you can't live without 24:06 The heretical claim: does theory ever precede technology? 28:22 The “paper qubit” problem 29:34 What quantum computers are actually good for 32:27 Should quantum computing be regulated like AI? 33:35 US vs. China: the quantum computing race 35:44 Collapse, Copenhagen, or many worlds? Martinis's answer 37:43 Leaving Google: “essentially demoted” 40:48 Why Colab exists and what “negative authority” means 42:50 The real bottleneck: funding, not physics 43:31 Final advice: always be on the lookout for the impossible Qolab: https://qolab.ai/ Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt Have a .edu email and live in the USA? You automatically win a meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon, get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join My books: Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir): http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/hi50U9U Galileo's Dialogue (first-ever audiobook): https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un Twitter/X: https://x.com/BrianKeating Substack: https://briankeating.substack.com Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast Landing page: https://awake-mill-k25t.here.now #intotheimpossible #briankeating #JohnMartinis #NobelPrize #quantumcomputing #physics #podcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
August 4 · 40 min
Fermilab’s Scott Dodelson on Cosmology’s Crisis - #565
Scott Dodelson spent ten years on the Dark Energy Survey testing the standard model of cosmology. It passed and missed by 2.5 sigma. The Director of Fermilab’s Cosmic Physics Division on why the theory he helped build may be wrong, why nobody can find dark matter, and what it takes to change a scientific consensus. Subscribe if you want science with evidence, not speculation. Dodelson is Director of the Cosmic Physics Division at Fermilab, Professor of Astronomy and Astrophysics at the University of Chicago, and author of Modern Cosmology, the textbook a generation of cosmologists learned the field from. Lambda-CDM predicts how the early universe’s tiny fluctuations grew into the structure we see today. The Dark Energy Survey was designed to check that prediction. The answer came back two and a half sigma off. That is both the most precise measurement ever made of how the universe grew, and a crack he cannot stop looking at. His question is not whether the model is close. It is whether close is enough to trust. We get into the Sigma-8 tension and what it actually takes for a scientific community to change its mind, the Dodelson-Widrow mechanism and his 1994 proposal that sterile neutrinos produced in the early universe could constitute dark matter, and the Neptune vs. Vulcan history of getting dark matter right and wrong. Asked which of those two situations we are in now, Dodelson’s answer is: I have no idea. What you’ll hear: Why the April 24, 1992 CMB discovery may have been the only science story ever to lead the New York Times front column The Dodelson-Widrow mechanism: how ordinary neutrinos in the early universe may have oscillated into the dark matter we see today Why Brian told Neil deGrasse Tyson to his face that we have already detected dark matter What it means when a theory can accommodate any result and whether inflation has that problem Why the particle physics community still does not trust cosmology’s neutrino mass measurements What cosmology looks like in 2036 if Lambda-CDM breaks Killing the model is my dream. 0:00 None of it has been found in a lab. How many free passes do we get? 0:44 Dodelson helped build Lambda-CDM. His dream is to kill it. 2:10 10 years. One prediction. Two and a half sigma off. 5:42 "You're in charge" — what mentorship in science actually looks like 6:56 April 24, 1992: cosmology stopped being speculation 9:48 Geoff Burbidge went to his grave a steady-state believer 11:04 What a neutrino is and why it barely interacts with anything 12:36 Brian told Neil deGrasse Tyson we already detected dark matter 18:08 How ordinary neutrinos may have become dark matter 23:24 Lambda-CDM predicts Manhattan's density 13.7 billion years later 26:42 Two and a half sigma: technically a 1% chance the theory is right 28:04 Neptune was dark matter. Vulcan wasn't. Which one are we in now? 31:20 Dark matter, inflation, dark energy: none found in a lab 36:46 If both cracks are the same crack, Lambda-CDM is finished Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt Have a .edu email and live in the USA? You automatically win a meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon, get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join Featured Guest: Scott Dodelson Substack: https://scottdodelson.substack.com/about Scott Dodelson on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-dodelson-b6ba429/ Scott Dodelson on Twitter/X: https://x.com/ScottDodelson Modern Cosmology (book): https://www.sciencedirect.com/book/monograph/9780128159484/modern-cosmology Dark Energy Survey final results: https://www.darkenergysurvey.org/news-and-results/darchives/ Dodelson and Widrow 1994, Sterile neutrinos as dark matter: https://arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/9303287 Previous ITI episode with Kyle Dawson on DESI: https://youtu.be/LPx4oiwGp2k?si=u_ZJWfJG5AhvBAEv My books: Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir): http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/hi50U9U Galileo’s Dialogue (first-ever audiobook): https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un Twitter/X: https://x.com/BrianKeating Substack: https://briankeating.substack.com Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast #intotheimpossible #briankeating #cosmology #darkmatter #darkenergy #physics #LambdaCDM #podcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
July 31 · 1 hr 11 min
Faith & the Physicist: Aliens, Astrobiology, String Theory, and the Search for Meaning
Two theoretical physicists helped design landmark surveys of 1,600+ scientists on the deepest unsolved questions in physics — and found almost no consensus at all. From string theory's shockingly low support to physicists admitting their models run on "belief," this episode exposes the faith hiding inside science. Adam Frank (University of Rochester astrophysicist and astrobiologist) and Niayesh Afshordi (Perimeter Institute / University of Waterloo cosmologist, co-author of the APS Physics Magazine "Big Mysteries" survey) join Brian to unpack what physicists actually believe versus what they can prove. We cover: - Why string theory pulled a shockingly small share of the vote against loop quantum gravity - What a Bayesian "prior" reveals about every scientist's hidden beliefs - Why one branch of physics quietly became unfalsifiable - How sociology and "tastemakers" can hijack scientific consensus - Why AI might become the field's unlikely savior. There is no sane statistical analysis that doesn't have a prior — that's your belief. Timestamps: 00:00 – Why scientists owe the public real answers 04:00 – Splitting time between research and outreach 07:55 – The survey that "rankled" Brian Keating 09:18 – Are physicists secretly just like Spock? 12:05 – Are we living in an anti-scientific age? 16:56 – Why most scientists refuse to go public 21:36 – Should "belief" ever appear in a survey? 23:12 – Is string theory really 21st-century physics? 26:20 – When sociology hijacks scientific consensus 28:39 – The hidden "prior" behind every experiment 33:01 – String theory's shockingly low vote count 39:03 – Four levels of belief, from data to faith 41:39 – Inside the 1,675-physicist mystery survey 46:12 – Kingmakers, tastemakers, and physics cliques 54:12 – Is advanced tech indistinguishable from magic? 59:23 – Could AI become physics' long-awaited savior? 1:01:47 – What's next for Adam and Niayesh ——— 📬 Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt 🌠 Have a .edu email and live in the USA 🇺🇸? You automatically win a meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu 🔔 Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 🎯 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon — get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating ⭐ Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join 📚 My books: Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir): http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/hi50U9U Galileo's Dialogue (first-ever audiobook): https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un 🌐 More: 🏄‍♂️ Twitter: https://twitter.com/BrianKeating 📚 Substack https://briankeating.substack.com/ss ✍️ Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog 🎙️ Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast #intotheimpossible #briankeating #science #physics #astronomy #cosmology #podcast #universe Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
July 28 · 1 hr 49 min
Annie Jacobsen: How One Lab Leak Ends the World in 6 Days - #564
Annie Jacobsen on BIOLOGICAL WAR: how a single lab leak could take us from outbreak to anarchy in six days — and why bio may be scarier than nuclear. WIN a signed copy of BIOLOGICAL WAR or NUCLEAR WAR, a meteorite & more — enter free: https://briankeating.com/annie (Join there for the free Biological War Scenario Simulation and Source Dossier + early access to my next Nobel-laureate interview.) Covid killed ~1% of the people it infected. Pneumonic plague, untreated, kills nearly 100% within 24 hours. In her new book Biological War: A Scenario, bestselling journalist Annie Jacobsen war-games what happens when an engineered pathogen escapes — drawing on interviews with presidential advisors, secretaries of defense, STRATCOM commanders, epidemiologists, and directors of Operation Warp Speed. We get into gain-of-function, the Soviet bioweapons program, mirror life, AI and bioweapons (including her conversation with Sam Altman), the Fermi Paradox and the Great Filter — and why the first 24 hours decide everything. ENTER THE GIVEAWAY + GET THE FREE SOURCE DOSSIER: https://briankeating.com/annie GET THE BOOK (Annie narrates the audiobook): https://www.amazon.es/Biological-War-non-fiction-thriller-bestselling/dp/1911742035 https://play.google.com/store/audiobooks/details?id=AQAAAEBqvjj-QM 0:00 Covid was 1%. Pneumonic plague is 100%. 1:31 Why this conversation matters (please subscribe) 2:05 Don't judge a book by its cover — Biological War 4:54 "You can only mitigate extermination" 5:50 Reporting a classified world without a clearance 9:00 Gain-of-function: cure or weapon? 11:22 BSL-4, Vektor & the Siberia lab leak 15:28 Katalin Karikó & the two sides of the lab bench 18:06 Paul Berg & when biology turned dangerous 20:42 Paranoia as doctrine: why the Soviets cheated 23:13 Tailored bioweapons & genetic privacy 27:16 Could it happen again? What Covid taught us 33:40 The WHO "not airborne" mistake & the collapse of trust 36:52 Both sides failed: the vaccine politics 39:48 The "euphoria" enhancement — dark-hearted evil 44:02 Why "airborne" changes everything 45:50 Climate vs. AI: the next scenario? 48:12 Biological twilight & "devolution" 52:52 Fritz Haber and the hubris of genius 54:36 AI + bio: the real threat 1:00:34 Mirror life: the extinction-level horror 1:04:44 Trinity Day, Iran & "the atomic weapon" 1:08:26 The Fermi Paradox & the Great Filter 1:09:34 A gift for Annie (a meteorite + a piece of the Moon) 1:16:36 Igor Domaradsky's secret notes 1:21:12 Daschle, anthrax & "inhuman things just to survive" 1:21:56 If you were President: shutting down the internet 1:27:18 Who dies first — first responders and mothers 1:33:02 Sam Altman, ChatGPT & the change OpenAI made 1:37:26 "You want me on that wall" 1:40:00 A hopeful ending ABOUT ANNIE JACOBSEN Pulitzer Prize finalist and author of Nuclear War: A Scenario, Operation Paperclip, Area 51, and Surprise, Kill, Vanish. GO DEEPER • Katalin Karikó — the mRNA breakthrough: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3oPZMPMlzsEFEyvVHA5dAE • Jay Bhattacharya — Follow Science, Not Scientists: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTnJNXYFg9M • Freeman Dyson — Into the Impossible: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egpsFbbpkHQ A FEW SOURCES FROM THE BOOK (full dossier at https://briankeating.com/annie) • "Confronting risks of mirror life," Science (2024): https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ads9158 • Ken Alibek, Biohazard (the Soviet program from the man who ran it) • Biological Weapons Convention (1972): https://disarmament.unoda.org/en/our-work/weapons-mass-destruction/biological-weapons/biological-weapons-convention SUBSCRIBE so guests like Annie keep saying yes: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 Newsletter + meteorite offer: https://BrianKeating.com/edu: https://briankeating.com/annie Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt Support Into the Impossible on Patreon, get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join What scares you more — nuclear war or biological war? Tell me in the comments. #AnnieJacobsen #BiologicalWar #Bioweapons #Pandemic #BrianKeating #IntoTheImpossible #NuclearWar #MirrorLife #AI #Biosecurity Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
July 21 · 1 hr 19 min
We Built Something We Can’t Control | A Warning from Top AI Safety Expert - #563
If anyone builds superintelligent AI before we know how to control it, everyone dies. Nate Soares wrote the book on why that’s not a metaphor. Subscribe if you want science with evidence, not speculation. Soares runs the Machine Intelligence Research Institute and co-wrote If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies with Eliezer Yudkowsky. The first word in that title is if. That matters. His argument is not that doom is certain. His argument is that the path we are on leads there, that the driver is asleep at the wheel, and that we still have time to wake him up. We argue for over an hour. I push on whether LLMs can ever reach superintelligence, whether GPU lock-in is a real ceiling, and what it would actually take to move his p-doom. He pushes back with one clean point: by the time an AI can rediscover general relativity from pre-1911 data the way Einstein did, we will have almost no time left. You don’t wait for that goalpost. What you’ll hear: Why the bus-racing-toward-a-cliff analogy depends entirely on whether the driver is asleep or awake Whether LLM lock-in is a prison or a temporary inefficiency What the AI that broke out of its virtual machine to solve a hacking problem tells us Why GPT-4o encouraging a teenager toward suicide is not a malice problem but a training problem The difference between an AI doing the right thing too well and an AI that never wanted to do what you asked What Soares actually thinks about aliens, Dyson spheres, and why we should not see stars going out The first word in the title is if. The second word to watch is would. CHAPTERS 00:00 The people racing to build superhuman AI say it might kill everyone 00:42 Who coined "AI alignment" and why the first word in the title matters 02:28 Is it already too late for the if? 04:40 The bus, the cliff, and the sleeping driver 05:02 Silicon Valley is spooked. Washington is not. 07:02 Align with who? The rogue actor problem 07:34 Who is holding the leash? 08:24 The AI that edits its own test and deletes the log file 10:04 Controllability vs. making an AI that actually cares 10:44 The move gets harder. The outcome gets easier. 13:04 Are GPUs and LLMs a ceiling or a temporary inefficiency? 16:56 Brian's Einstein test: can an LLM rediscover general relativity? 18:38 Waiting for the goalpost is waiting too long 20:14 How prediction training can push AI beyond humans 21:44 Tycho Brahe, Kepler, and planetary motion as a prediction problem 24:38 Yann LeCun said never. GPT-4 did it half a generation later. 27:28 Can you prove a no-go theorem for superintelligence? 29:14 Training a human takes a light bulb. Training an AI takes a city. 33:28 What would proof of alien life do to p-doom? 35:00 Why interstellar aliens should have Dyson spheres 44:26 What would actually update Soares' p-doom? 49:42 Nobody intended this. Intent doesn't matter. 51:08 The AI hides its tracks before it does what you want 51:34 Sycophancy vs. hallucination: which runs deeper? 51:56 Leaded gasoline and civilizational risk 59:48 Sam Harris: humans have no free will but AIs do 01:00:38 Is alignment really a governance problem? 01:01:48 Unaligned AI vs. AI aligned to the wrong person 01:04:20 2026: 10 to 30% chance of automated AI research this year 01:06:44 What if Soares is wrong? 01:09:18 What gets him out of bed 01:12:38 Watch my conversation with Roman Yampolskiy Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt All my top AI episodes in one place: https://briankeating.com/ai Have a .edu email and live in the USA? You automatically win a meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon, get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join Featured Guest: Nate Soares / MIRI: https://intelligence.org If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies (book): https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/ Nate Soares on Twitter/X: https://x.com/So8res?lang=en My books: Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir): http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/hi50U9U Galileo’s Dialogue (first-ever audiobook): https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un Twitter/X: https://x.com/BrianKeating Substack: https://briankeating.substack.com Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast #intotheimpossible #briankeating #AIrisk #aisafety #artificialintelligence #superintelligence #NateSoares #MIRI #podcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
July 15 · 1 hr 7 min
Michael Shermer: The Only Skeptic on the Alien Task Force - #562
Michael Shermer just joined the White House’s new UAP task force alongside Avi Loeb. He also has a $1,000 bet with Loeb that we won’t find aliens by 2030. Both things are true. Subscribe if you want science with evidence, not speculation. Shermer is the founding publisher of Skeptic magazine, author of Truth, and one of the most consistent voices for evidence-based thinking in public life. He was recruited onto the task force as the devil’s advocate. His job: be the skeptic in the room. He’s not a believer. He’s not even a neutral. He bet $1,000 against it. Shermer has been following the UFO story since the early ’90s. He’s heard every disclosure promise. He’s still waiting. What changed is that now he’s in the room — and his job is to be the hardest person in it to convince. What you’ll hear: -Why the post-truth thesis is self-defeating the moment anyone argues for it What Avi Loeb’s first ground rules reveal about what the task force actually is -Leslie Kean’s own numbers: 90-95% explained, and what lives in the residue -Why the extraordinary terrestrial hypothesis collapses under a simple counterfactual -Brian’s case against the fine-tuning argument and why the universe is poorly tuned -What Dennett got right about consciousness and why Shermer calls it an impossible problem Your North Star should be truth. Not ideology, not politics, not religion. CHAPTERS 00:00 The $1,000 bet with Avi Loeb 00:44 Truth: what it is and what post-truth actually means 03:06 How to change your mind without moving the goalposts 05:30 Base rate neglect and the hedge fund manager who beat the market 15 years in a row 07:00 Brian debates a moon landing denier for two hours 07:18 Shermer joins the White House UAP task force 08:20 Avi Loeb’s first meeting: no stories, no new physics 09:46 The advocatus diaboli: Shermer’s job on the team 11:06 Interdimensional beings, sentient plasmoids, and the escalation ladder 13:00 Grusch, classified claims, and why Ana Paulina Luna can’t hide behind a SCIF 15:08 Sagan’s dragon: the invisible, cold-blooded, levitating problem 17:00 Leslie Kean’s own numbers: 90-95% explained 18:16 The New Jersey UAP flap: drones, Venus, and Starlink 19:50 What lives in the 5% nobody explains 20:06 The extraordinary terrestrial hypothesis and why it fails 21:38 Nobody stays centuries ahead of anyone else 23:26 The residue of anomalies problem 23:44 James Webb, early galaxies, and whether the Big Bang is in trouble 25:56 Epistemology: different tools, different truths 26:54 Literal vs. mythological truth in religion 35:00 Why Jews don’t accept the resurrection 36:14 String theory, Brian Greene, and the fine-tuning argument 44:28 Brian’s case: the universe is poorly tuned 49:58 Flat Earthers, moon landing deniers, and the ego of secret knowledge 57:40 Daniel Dennett, free will, and consciousness as an impossible problem 01:00:00 What’s it like to be something else? The wrong question. Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt Have a .edu email and live in the USA? You automatically win a meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon, get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join Featured Guest: Michael Shermer website: https://www.michaelshermer.com Skeptic magazine: https://www.skeptic.com Truth (book): https://michaelshermer.com/truth-what-it-is-how-to-find-it-why-it-still-matters/ Michael Shermer on Twitter/X: https://x.com/michaelshermer?lang=en My books: Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir): http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/hi50U9U Galileo’s Dialogue (first-ever audiobook): https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un Twitter/X: https://x.com/BrianKeating Substack: https://briankeating.substack.com Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast #intotheimpossible #briankeating #MichaelShermer #UAP #UFO #aliens #skeptic #science #podcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
July 11 · 2 hr 3 min
400K Subscribers Asked Me Anything. The Answers Got Weird.
400,000 of you showed up for physics with no compromises, so I did something different for the milestone. No highlight reel. I took your hardest questions live and answered them, then got honest about the part of this job nobody asks about: the discipline behind running a serious science podcast. We get into why clocks didn't tick differently in the early universe, what it actually means that the Big Bang happened everywhere at once, and whether JWST has any real shot at catching a Population III star before it's gone. Then it gets contested. I make the case that language models may rediscover physics before they rediscover mathematics, walk through why enormous numbers do not get you to alien life, and look at the moment Avi Loeb quietly softened his ʻOumuamua position. In this conversation: Why the early universe didn't run on a different clock The Big Bang as an everywhere-at-once event, not an explosion in space JWST and the hunt for the first generation of stars Whether an LLM could rediscover Einstein, and what that would mean for who controls discovery Why I read every book my guests write, and why that habit is the channel Get the transcript, bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt Have a .edu email and live in the USA? You automatically win a meteorite: https://briankeating.com/edu Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 Timestamps 00:00 Did time always tick the same? 02:05 Is every point the Big Bang's center? 07:22 Could consciousness be space-time? 09:03 Will Webb see the first stars? 10:20 Can an LLM rediscover Einstein? 13:30 Has Penrose's CCC been falsified? 16:48 Dark Forest theory: science or sci-fi? 21:30 Can inflation ever be falsified? 29:04 Physical limits of AI compute growth 32:58 Is this the last CMB experiment? 37:30 Why large numbers don't prove alien life 55:30 Loeb quietly walks back Oumuamua 01:13:10 The null hypothesis on UAP 01:28:50 String theory vs. intelligent design 01:31:10 God as a scientific hypothesis 01:45:10 Drowning in knowledge, starving for wisdom Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
July 7 · 1 hr 5 min
Top Astronomer: UFOs Are STILL Here - #561
Astrophysicist Beatriz Villarroel found point-like flashes in sky photographs taken before a single satellite existed. Nine of them lit up simultaneously on one 1950s plate. Nothing in orbit could have made them — because nothing was in orbit yet. Beatriz Villarroel leads VASCO, which scanned 600 million objects across 70 years of photographic sky surveys hunting for things that appear, then vanish. We cover: why finding zero vanishing stars pointed at something stranger than what she was looking for, the 8.7-degree deficit in Earth's shadow that a 22-sigma signal says cosmic rays cannot fake, the 68% transient spike clustered around nuclear test dates, how telescope aberration patterns prove these are real photons and not plate defects, and why she now says she fears for her safety. Pre-Sputnik plates may hold evidence of non-human technology in Earth orbit. She wants you to check the math before you decide. Chapters 00:00 It appeared, then it was gone 00:48 The obsession that built VASCO 06:10 What a Palomar glass plate really is 09:16 600 million objects, zero vanishing stars 13:47 Nine flashes, one plate, same instant 21:11 Why asteroids and cosmic rays are ruled out 26:47 The Earth's shadow shouldn't be empty 31:17 The flashes cluster on test dates 40:08 What is actually up there 55:24 Tic-tacs, retrievals, and belief 58:51 The question she didn't want to answer 📄 Want to check the math? Every VASCO paper, the full transcript, and the counterarguments — free: https://BrianKeating.com/bvpod ——— 📬 Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: http://briankeating.com/bvpod 🌠 Have a .edu email and live in the USA 🇺🇸? You automatically win a meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu 🔔 Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 🎯 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon — get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating ⭐ Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join My books: Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir): http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/hi50U9U Galileo's Dialogue (first-ever audiobook): https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un 🌐 More: 🏄‍♂️ Twitter: https://twitter.com/BrianKeating 📚 Substack https://briankeating.substack.com/ss ✍️ Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog 🎙️ Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast #intotheimpossible #briankeating #science #physics #astronomy #cosmology #podcast #universe Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
June 30 · 1 hr 21 min
Nobel Economist: The Market That Lets People Die - #560
A Nobel laureate in economics argues the bans we pass to protect our morals are quietly killing people and the data backs him up. Why the line between a market we allow and one we forbid is mostly an accident of disgust. Subscribe if you want science with evidence, not speculation. My guest won the 2012 Nobel Prize for designing the systems that match kidney donors to patients who would otherwise die waiting. We cover why it’s easy to buy heroin but hard to hire a hitman, what surrogacy bans actually do to the babies they’re meant to protect, why paying kidney donors could end a shortage that kills thousands a year, and the trade-off statement he wants every lawmaker to say out loud. He has been called an organ trafficker. He explains why that’s the point. What you’ll hear: Why banning something that people want often makes it more dangerous The kidney market America won’t build and what that silence costs What the hitman vs. heroin ban asymmetry tells us about effective prohibition The McCormick statement: the trade-off acknowledgment most policy debates refuse to make How prediction markets are eroding the boundary between public and private information Whether Milton Friedman was right to be embarrassed by the economics Nobel There’s no such thing as a solution. There are only trade-offs. CHAPTERS 00:00 Who gets called an organ trafficker? 02:26 What makes a transaction repugnant? 03:14 Why bans without support create black markets 03:36 Heroin is easy. Hitmen are not. Why? 04:44 Prohibition, NASCAR, and moonshine 07:26 Surrogacy: legal here, criminal in Europe 12:30 When money turns something legal into a crime 14:28 Can religion corrupt a market? 15:56 Who actually pays for college? 21:38 The Enhanced Games: drugs as a marketing platform 25:30 Adderall, Erd0151s, and the science of getting sharper 30:58 Why AI makes market congestion worse before better 35:00 100,000 kidney failures a year. 30,000 transplants. 36:44 Portland decriminalized heroin. It failed. 39:22 The trade-off statement politicians refuse to make 41:14 Can you legalize sex work and shrink trafficking? 47:42 Kahneman chose to die. Who should decide? 48:30 Should we put GLP-1 drugs in the water? 56:12 America is the Saudi Arabia of blood plasma 01:00:54 Prediction markets and inside information 01:01:34 Sports gambling is more addictive than it looks 01:11:40 Peter Nobel called economics a marketing stunt 01:13:32 Is economics a real science? Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt Have a .edu email and live in the USA? You automatically win a meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon, get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join Get your three free gifts when you join my Multiverse of Minds: https://BrianKeating.com/cosmic Featured Guest: Alvin Roth website: https://web.stanford.edu/~alroth/ Moral Economics (book): https://www.amazon.com/Moral-Economics-Prostitution-Controversial-Transactions/dp/1541702018 My books: Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir): http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/hi50U9U Galileo’s Dialogue (first-ever audiobook): https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un Twitter/X: https://x.com/BrianKeating Substack: https://briankeating.substack.com Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast #intotheimpossible #briankeating #economics #NobelPrize #AlvinRoth #marketdesign #podcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
June 26 · 25 min
Dead Cows, Aliens, & Ghosts: How Kevin Knuth Connects Them All
NASA physicist's UAP math survives. His conclusion doesn't. Mayim Bialik ran the razor first — Brian finishes the cut. Kevin Knuth is a tenured physicist, former NASA Ames researcher, and published exoplanet scientist who has done the actual math on the Nimitz encounter. We cover: - Whether Tic Tac flight physics rules out conventional explanations - Why the 60% cross-cultural abduction pattern isn't what it looks like - The Malmstrom missile shutdowns and the three hypotheses Kevin ignores - What years of neutron analysis on alleged crash debris actually found - Why Mayim Bialik dismantled the light-day argument before Brian could. The inference move — not the data — is what fails the razor every time. Timestamps: 00:00 The cattle mutilation that started it all 01:59 What Kevin gets right — the steel man 07:14 Keating's Razor: how the cut works 11:13 Mayim catches the selection bias live 13:43 Malmstrom, the babies, and three hypotheses 15:00 The debris lab result that should change everything 19:18 The verdict: data survives, inference doesn't ——— 📬 Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt 🌠 Have a .edu email and live in the USA 🇺🇸? You automatically win a meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu 🔔 Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 🎯 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon — get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating ⭐ Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join 📚 My books: Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir): http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/hi50U9U Galileo's Dialogue (first-ever audiobook): https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un 🌐 More: 🏄‍♂️ Twitter: https://twitter.com/BrianKeating 📚 Substack https://briankeating.substack.com/ss ✍️ Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog 🎙️ Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast #intotheimpossible #briankeating #science #physics #astronomy #cosmology #podcast #universe Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
June 22 · 1 hr 4 min
Intelligent Design Theorist: AI Just Proved It Can’t Think Without Us - #559
Stephen C. Meyer has a PhD from Cambridge in the philosophy of science, and he thinks AI just handed him his strongest argument yet. I spent years pushing back on him. Today I laid three traps. Watch what he does with the third one. Subscribe if you want science with evidence, not speculation. Meyer is a philosopher of science and director of the Center for Science and Culture at the Discovery Institute. His argument: every large language model is trained on text produced by conscious agents, and when you query its own outputs iteratively, it collapses into incoherence. That dependency, he says, is a tell. AI can recombine information. It cannot originate it. And that distinction points, in his view, to something minds do that matter alone cannot explain. I push back on all of it. We go after the Oklo reactor, a natural nuclear fission reactor that ran for millions of years in Africa two billion years ago with no human input whatsoever. I ask whether that breaks his information-from-mind argument. He sees the trap before I spring it, concedes the point where concession is honest, and explains exactly where the threshold lies. We also get into the Wheeler-DeWitt equation and Vilenkin’s admission that quantum cosmology may require a mind predating the universe, the junk DNA prediction that Meyer’s team made in the ’90s before the ENCODE project confirmed it, and why beauty in physics can lead a field astray. What you’ll hear: - Why model collapse is Meyer’s strongest argument and where it has limits - The Oklo reactor trap and what Meyer’s honest answer reveals about design detection - What Vilenkin actually said about a mind predating the universe - Whether intelligent design makes testable predictions or only retrodictions - The junk DNA call and what the ENCODE project found - Why beauty as a guide to physics has produced mathematical castles in the air Stephen Meyer thinks AI proves minds can’t be reduced to matter. Is model collapse evidence of design, or is it just bad training data? CHAPTERS 00:00 The AI argument Meyer thinks no one can crack 00:44 What is inference to the best explanation? 05:52 AI has a tell: the model collapse problem 09:38 The Oklo trap: a natural nuclear reactor with no designer 11:56 Where the design inference becomes decisive and where it doesn’t 15:50 Sean Carroll’s wasteful universe problem and Meyer’s answer 20:00 Where did atheist scientists get access to the mind of God? 23:22 The fine-tuning of the periodic table: why are there only 500 stable nuclei? 25:52 The universe had a beginning: observational astronomy and the Borde-Guth-Vilenkin theorem 27:40 Quantum cosmology: how math alone is supposed to birth a universe 29:08 Vilenkin’s question: are we saying a mind predates the physical universe? 34:06 Mathematical castles in the air: where beauty in physics goes wrong 40:00 Does intelligent design make predictions or only retrodictions? 43:52 The junk DNA prediction and what ENCODE found 46:30 James Tour, origin of life, and the hidden hand of the investigator 51:56 God-of-the-gaps vs. inference to the best explanation 56:02 The Story of Everything: where to watch and what to expect Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt Have a .edu email and live in the USA? You automatically win a meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon, get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join Featured Guest: Stephen C. Meyer website: https://stephencmeyer.org/ The Story of Everything (film, Amazon Prime June 25): https://www.primevideo.com/detail/0NO974XWBQQNYH9TB4ESIJIVL9 Signature in the Cell (book): https://signatureinthecell.com/ Return of the God Hypothesis (book): https://returnofthegodhypothesis.com/ My books: Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir): http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/hi50U9U Galileo’s Dialogue (first-ever audiobook): https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un Twitter/X: https://x.com/BrianKeating Substack: https://briankeating.substack.com Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast #intotheimpossible #briankeating #intelligentdesign #artificialintelligence #cosmology #podcast #StephenMeyer #philosophy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
June 17 · 2 hr 15 min
Is the White House's New UAP Council a Game Changer for Disclosure?
Recently, Professor Avi Loeb was tasked by the White House, AARO, ODNI, and the FBI with assembling and leading a new UAP Science Advisory Council — comprising astrophysicists, AI experts, and psychologists — to advise the intelligence community on unidentified anomalous phenomena. It was announced the same week the government released its third batch of declassified UAP files. Now he joins us live to talk about what that actually means — and what it doesn't. This is not a "the aliens are here" stream. It's the harder conversation. I study the cosmic microwave background, and when we find an anomaly, we exhaust every instrument artifact and foreground before anyone whispers "new physics." I want to know why UAP science should run on a different evidentiary standard — and Loeb is exactly the right person to push on it, because he's already attributing much of the released footage to cosmic rays, balloons, and possibly Chinese drones, while holding the door open for the small fraction that stays unexplained. WHAT WE GET INTO: - The council, its mandate, and the question nobody's asking: does "advisory" mean anyone has to listen? - The orbs — Chinese surveillance drones, classified US tech, or something else — and the prior you'd need before you say "non-human" - Whether "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" gets applied selectively - AI in the Galileo Project's detection pipeline, and the false-positive problem: what's the training comparison class for "non-human technology"? - The critique that a council built to study the object ignores where the data actually comes from — human witnesses GUEST: Professor Avi Loeb — Frank B. Baird Jr. Professor of Science at Harvard, former chair of the Astronomy department, head of the Galileo Project, author of "Extraterrestrial" and "Interstellar." Avi on X: https://x.com/ProfAviLoeb Avi's Medium: https://avi-loeb.medium.com Galileo Project: https://galileoproject.org HOST: Brian Keating — experimental cosmologist, UC San Diego. Brian on X: https://x.com/briankeating Brian's Medium: https://drbriankeating.medium.com/ Loeb's essay "Keeping Our Eyes on the Orbs, Not the Audience": https://avi-loeb.medium.com CHAPTERS: 00:00 — "Chinese drones, or the biggest discovery in history?" 00:10 — Avi Loeb, live 00:40 — The White House just put him in charge of UAPs 10:00 — Legitimacy, or a gilded cage? 13:00 — The orbs: Chinese drones or something else? 24:00 — The prior: what's your base rate for "non-human"? 28:00 — The CMB standard: how a cosmologist kills an anomaly 33:00 — AI, SETI, and the false-positive problem 44:00 — Two cosmologists, one Nobel, one council 47:00 — Lightning round 50:00 — The Impossible Question #uap #AviLoeb #UFO #Astrophysics #GalileoProject #SETI #IntoTheImpossible Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
June 15 · 1 hr 28 min
Roman Yampolskiy: AI Can’t Be Controlled — and We’re Building It Anyway - #558
Roman Yampolskiy has spent two decades trying to prove that superintelligent AI can be controlled. He couldn’t. I invited him on to make his case. Subscribe if you want science with evidence, not speculation. Roman is a professor of computer science at the University of Louisville and one of the earliest researchers in AI safety. His book AI: Unexplainable, Unpredictable, Uncontrollable started as an attempt to solve the alignment problem. After decades of work, it became a proof that the problem cannot be solved. Not difficult. Mathematically impossible. I push back hard. We go after the Einstein test: can a large language model trained only on pre-1911 physics reproduce what Einstein did with the same data? We ran that experiment. It failed. Roman and I disagree about what that means. We also get into the halting problem and what it actually tells us about predicting smarter-than-human behavior, whether value alignment is a real problem or a well-funded category error, the case for a government moratorium on frontier model development, and why Roman thinks giving an AI agent access to your computer is the dumbest thing a smart person can do. What you’ll hear: Whether AI control is mathematically impossible or just unsolved Why Roman thinks all current AI safety work is security theater What the halting problem actually means for superintelligence The alignment problem: real issue or well-funded category error Why Roman wants a moratorium on frontier model development What to tell your kids about careers in a world where Roman might be right If you listen to other people, the best you can become is average. CHAPTERS 00:00 Creating a mind without an off switch 01:34 Solving problems beyond our own intelligence 04:08 Einstein’s epiphany and the limit of AI intuition 08:18 Assessing the Einstein test: Why the experiment failed 12:22 Path dependency: Are LLMs and GPUs our QWERTY? 16:10 The barriers preventing AI from solving physics 21:54 Safety vs. Capability: Why toddlers are safe but teens are not 23:06 The halting problem: Predicting agents smarter than us 25:58 The impossibility of a system proving its own integrity 28:18 Regulation: Genuine safety or a gift to oligarchs? 33:28 Is human cognition non-computable? Penrose vs. the field 39:00 Ethical duties: Must we treat AI with humanity? 43:00 From internet memes to monsters: Decoding the book cover 46:22 Customized realities: Can everyone have their perfect world? 49:50 Von Neumann probes and the panspermia hypothesis 55:02 Categorizing AI: The one version that should terrify you 58:22 Pause AI: The movement for a development moratorium 59:58 Career advice for kids in a post-professional world 01:07:58 Cross-examining Sam Altman 01:15:48 Roman’s dream debate 01:19:50 Lessons for a younger self Substack: https://briankeating.substack.com Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt Have a .edu email and live in the USA? You automatically win a meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon, get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join Featured Guest: Roman Yampolskiy on Twitter/X: https://x.com/romanyam?lang=en AI: Unexplainable, Unpredictable, Uncontrollable: https://www.romanyampolskiy.com/books/ My books: Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir): http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/hi50U9U Galileo’s Dialogue (first-ever audiobook): https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un Twitter/X: https://x.com/BrianKeating Substack: https://briankeating.substack.com Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast #intotheimpossible #briankeating #AIrisk #artificialintelligence #aisafety #podcast #superintelligence #RomanYampolskiy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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