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Hedgeye Risk Management

Hedgeye is an investment research and financial media company founded in 2008. Our core principles are transparency, accountability and trust. Hedgeye’s Real Conversations series, hosted by CEO Keith McCullough, brings together the brightest minds in the business to cut through the noise and discuss the financial market moves that actually matter.LEGALThe opinions expressed in Hedgeye Real Conversations are those of the individual speaking and not of Hedgeye, and should not be construed as specific investment advice.Hedgeye® is a registered trademark. All Hedegye Real Conversations are the intellectual property of Hedgeye. All rights reserved. For more information, and to subscribe, go to www.hedgeye.com.

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Friday · 1 hr 7 min
The AI Gold Rush Meets an Oil Shock | Protect the Pile Episode 25
Visit HedgeyeAM.com for more info 00:00 – Markets Return With Oil, Rates & Quad 2 in Focus 06:00 – The Weak Dollar Tug-of-War 12:30 – Midterms, Politics & the Coming Defense Spending Boom 15:00 – Iran, the Red Sea & the Growing Oil Supply Risk 23:00 – Why Modern Warfare Is Becoming More Expensive 28:30 – Can Policymakers Keep Markets Going Through the Midterms? 33:20 – Russia, Ukraine & a New Threat to Global Energy 38:00 – Could Higher Rates Break the AI Boom? 45:45 – The AI Price War: Who Actually Makes Money? 53:15 – AI Bubble or Next Internet? Finding the Real Winners What happens when rising oil prices, a weakening dollar, geopolitical escalation and an increasingly crowded AI boom all collide at once? In the latest Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman, Brooks Cutright and Neil Howe unpack a market being pulled in several directions at the same time. The panel debates whether tightening energy supplies and expanding global conflicts could reignite inflation and reshape the economic regime heading into the midterms. Then they turn to AI, where massive infrastructure spending, aggressive price competition and sky-high expectations are raising a harder question: even if AI changes everything, who actually makes the money? From OpenAI and Anthropic to Apple, Snowflake and Databricks, the group digs into where the real winners - and risks - may be hiding. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
August 26 · 1 hr 3 min
Ep. 142 Real Conversations | The Math of America w/ Rick Rule
**This episode originally aired live on Hedgeye.com on August, 26, 2026** Visit Hedgeye.com for more great investing content. Debt keeps climbing. The dollar keeps falling and losing purchasing power. Most portfolios still aren't built for what comes next. Join us for a new Real Conversation between Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Rick Rule, CEO of Rule Investment Media, founder of Battle Bank and Sprott's largest individual shareholder. With the national debt eclipsing $40 trillion, 42% of income tax revenue now going toward interest and the Federal Reserve struggling to control the long end of the curve, Rick believes dollar debasement is no longer a forecast. It's the base case. Keith and Rick will break down the math of America and what it means for gold, silver, uranium, oil and mining equities that many investors still overlook. Expect decades of hard-won investing discipline distilled into plain terms: buy what's hated, wait for the setup and let patience do the work. Rick will share what he owns, where he's adding and why the biggest risk most investors face sits between their own two ears. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
August 21 · 1 hr 1 min
Gold, Market Flows, AI & the Next Investing Regime | Protect the Pile Episode 24
On this episode of Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman, Brooks Cutright and their guest Jerry Jordan unpack a market increasingly driven by flows, leverage, momentum and corporate buybacks—and what that means for investors trying to separate underlying fundamentals from price action. They discuss the hidden weakness beneath top-heavy indices, record valuations and margins, and the danger of putting peak multiples on peak earnings. The group also debates the outlook for energy and commodities, inflation, Treasury intervention and a weaker U.S. dollar before diving into the economics of the AI boom: hyperscaler CapEx, Anthropic and OpenAI, model commoditization, and whether the enormous investment cycle can generate sustainable returns. Finally, Jerry lays out the contrarian theme he believes the market is still underpricing: hard assets. His central call is that continued dollar weakness and eventual policy support for the bond market could create an environment where gold outperforms the stock market over the next three to five years. Timecode Markers 00:00 – Introducing Jerry Jordan 05:17 – Why Market Flows Matter More Than Ever 10:01 – “Price Is 99 of 100 Factors” 13:24 – The Hidden Carnage Beneath a Top-Heavy Market 16:05 – When Cutting Equity Exposure Makes Sense 20:02 – The Danger of Peak Multiples on Peak Earnings 21:54 – The Bull Case for Energy & Commodities 25:49 – A Different Way to Think About Inflation 27:49 – Treasury Intervention, the Dollar & Hard Assets 29:44 – Could AI Economics Prick the Equity Bubble? 31:19 – The Bull Case for Anthropic & AI Profitability 35:02 – Is AI Becoming a Utility Business? 37:48 – Why AI Models Could Become Commodities 45:59 – What the Market Is Mispricing 47:03 – Why Gold Could Outperform Stocks 50:30 – What Breaks With a 7% 10-Year Yield? 51:30 – Private Equity, Insurance & Hidden Systemic Risk Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
August 8 · 59 min
The Five Follies Investors Can’t Ignore | Protect the Pile Episode 23
On this episode of Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman, Brooks Cutright and David Salem reunite for a wide-ranging market roundtable built around David’s “five follies” framework. With U.S. markets near all-time highs and the domestic setup still broadly bullish, the group debates the risks investors may be underestimating beneath the surface. Topics include the Iran conflict, energy positioning, resource nationalism, global supply-chain fragility, dollar weakness, Fed credibility and the limits of trying to control inflation with blunt tools. The conversation then shifts to AI, where the team digs into open versus closed models, hyperscaler CapEx, cloud economics, compute capacity, security risks and whether today’s spending boom will earn returns above its rising cost of capital. It’s a thoughtful look at markets, geopolitics and technology through a risk-first lens 00:00 Welcome to Protect the Pile 01:17 Markets Near Highs & the Bullish U.S. Setup 02:58 David Salem’s “Five Follies” Framework 08:46 Energy Positioning & the Iran Conflict 11:06 Resource Wars, Hormuz & the Red Sea 17:24 Dollar Weakness, Allies & a Fragmenting World Order 24:26 The Fed, Inflation & the Limits of Control 29:07 Treasury Intervention, Japan & the Yen Carry Trade 36:59 Open vs. Closed AI Models 38:36 Hyperscaler CapEx, Cloud Economics & Compute Risk 51:55 Cybersecurity, Cost of Capital & AI Folly Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
August 5 · 20 min
Lunch Break with Keith & Steve | Financial Media Has Japan Dead Wrong
On Friday afternoon, after US equity markets closed, the United States government bought Japanese yen for the first time in twenty-eight years. And every explanation we've seen from the mainstream media looks like fish floundering. So Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough called the money doctor. Professor Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins has spent forty years watching governments try to outsmart currency markets, and he does not grade on a curve. "Not only the analysts, but the financial press just have Japan completely wrong, and they've had it wrong for a long time." — Steve Hanke In a new (hopefully) regular segment, Keith and Steve discuss the topics that Wall Street and its media are missing - or getting dead wrong.
August 1 · 57 min
The Outsider's Edge: Why the Smart Money Is Trapped in a Box | Protect the Pile Episode 22 w/ Nick Nemeth
Visit HedgeyeAM.com for more information 00:00 — Welcome to Protect the Pile 01:01 — Meet Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets 02:43 — 20 years in markets at 31: Nick's origin story 06:11 — The open letter to Secretary Bessent 11:43 — GFC flashback: no adults in the room 16:22 — "Loans are bad the day you write them" 20:41 — The AI CapEx problem: who actually builds the data centers? 30:16 — Small caps and the experience-economy trade 39:36 — Bank shots: Vertiv, Quanta, and letting winners run 44:36 — The insurance time bomb: bigger than 2008? Twenty years in the markets at just 31, no college degree, and a Substack that climbed to 18,000 followers on the back of one open letter to the Treasury. This week on Protect the Pile, Patrick Kent flies solo with Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets — the self-taught generalist sounding the alarm on the leverage buried inside private credit and the life insurance industry. They dig into why he thinks the next crisis could dwarf 2008, why AI CapEx can't keep compounding at 20%, and how "functionally fake" wealth is propping up housing and credit. Along the way: hunting overlooked small caps, the experience-economy trade, and the bank-shot winners most investors missed. A no-nonsense conversation about where the real risk — and the real opportunity — is hiding. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
July 24 · 55 min
The Fed's Next Punch in the Mouth | Protect the Pile Episode 21 w/ Danielle DiMartino Booth
Visit HedgeyeAM.com for more information 00:00 Welcome to Protect the Pile with Danielle DiMartino Booth 02:01 The Fed’s “Punched in the Mouth” Moment 04:34 Kevin Warsh, Fed Independence & the Next Market Test 06:12 Commercial Real Estate, Credit Risk & 2026–2027 Maturities 08:03 The Fed’s Ambiguous Mandate 10:21 Is the Fed Fighting the Wrong Inflation War? 14:29 Can Kevin Warsh Actually Change the Fed? 18:15 The New “Too Big to Fail” Problem 23:25 Fixing the Fed’s Broken Data Problem 31:35 Real-Time Inflation Data & the Fed’s Framework 40:18 AI, Accounting Games & the Integrity of Earnings 47:06 The Fed Chair Who Got It Right On this episode of Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman and Brooks Cutright break down a summer market that keeps defying the noise. With the S&P 500 up double digits, small caps suddenly outperforming and the Mag 7 barely positive on the year, the group debates whether the market’s leadership is truly broadening or just rotating through crowded trades. They dig into early earnings season signals from banks, healthcare, semiconductors and AI infrastructure, including the warning sign of stocks failing to rally on strong numbers. The conversation also tackles global dollar liquidity, Korea’s leverage unwind, Meta’s AI strategy, hyperscaler spending, model commoditization and whether AI’s real value will show up in applications rather than raw compute. It’s a timely check-in on what’s working, what’s crowded and what could crack next. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
July 21 · 1 hr 2 min
Ep.141 Real Conversations | Rising Geostrategic Risk: The New Rules for Global Markets w/ John O’Connor
***This webcast originally aired live on Hedgeye.com on July 22, 2026*** The age of frictionless globalization is over. Investors are now operating in a world where geopolitical conflict, national security policy, supply-chain control and technology leadership can move markets as much as earnings, rates or inflation. For decades, investors benefited from a world shaped by globalization, open supply chains, low-friction trade and the steady expansion of market-cap weighted benchmarks. That world is giving way to something more complex. Geopolitical conflict, strategic competition, supply-chain vulnerability, technology leadership and national security policy are now direct inputs into the investment process. Hedgeye Founder and CEO Keith McCullough will host a new Real Conversation with John O’Connor, Chairman and CEO of J.H. Whitney Investment Management. The discussion will focus on how investors should think about geostrategic risk in today’s market environment. Keith and John will examine why yesterday’s benchmark construction may not fully account for today’s risks, how geopolitical exposure can show up inside major public companies and why critical technologies are becoming a central battleground for capital, policy and national security. Visit Hedgeye.com for more great investing content. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
July 18 · 1 hr 1 min
The AI Trade Faces Its First Real Test | Protect the Pile Episode 20
On this episode of Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman and Brooks Cutright break down a summer market that keeps defying the noise. With the S&P 500 up double digits, small caps suddenly outperforming and the Mag 7 barely positive on the year, the group debates whether the market’s leadership is truly broadening or just rotating through crowded trades. They dig into early earnings season signals from banks, healthcare, semiconductors and AI infrastructure, including the warning sign of stocks failing to rally on strong numbers. The conversation also tackles global dollar liquidity, Korea’s leverage unwind, Meta’s AI strategy, hyperscaler spending, model commoditization and whether AI’s real value will show up in applications rather than raw compute. It’s a timely check-in on what’s working, what’s crowded and what could crack next. 00:00 Welcome to Protect the Pile 01:21 Summer Market Level Set: S&P, Mag 7 & Small Caps 03:33 Global Dollar Liquidity Warning Signs 05:26 Early Earnings Season: Banks, Healthcare & Semis 07:02 Big Banks Start Strong 07:29 Healthcare Utilization Risks 13:40 AI’s Potential Impact on Drug Development 17:34 Strong Earnings, Weak Reactions & the Semi Trade 25:13 Korea, Leverage & Margin Call Risk 31:59 Meta, Hyperscalers & the AI Compute Debate 49:42 Netflix, Streaming & Lessons for the AI Buildout Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
July 11 · 51 min
The Great Private Equity Hangover | Protect the Pile Episode 19 w/ Dan Rasmussen
On this episode of Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, John McNamara and Brooks Cutright sit down with Dan Rasmussen, Founder and Managing Partner of Verdad Advisers, for a sharp, skeptical look at private markets, Japan, small caps and the AI boom. Rasmussen explains why private equity may be less of a magic asset class and more like “levered microcaps” with delayed marks, inflated valuations and growing liquidity risks. The group digs into private credit, zombie funds, roll-ups, venture capital, Japan’s corporate governance reforms and why cheap markets getting better can create opportunity. They also debate whether AI’s biggest winners may not be the mega-cap companies spending the most, but smaller businesses that can use the technology to improve margins. It’s a candid, practitioner-level conversation about risk hiding in plain sight. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
July 3 · 57 min
America's 250-Year Market Miracle | Protect the Pile Episode 18 w/ Meb Faber
On this episode of Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman and David Salem sit down with Meb Faber, Co-Founder and CIO of Cambria Investment Management, for a wide-ranging conversation on America’s 250-year market story, the power of long-term equity ownership and the risks hiding beneath today’s bull market. Faber discusses his new book, Investing in America, and explains why the U.S. stock market has compounded through wars, depressions, crashes and political dysfunction — but also why valuation, governance and speculative excess still matter. The group covers AI, SpaceX, market-cap concentration, zero-day options, financial literacy, endowment investing and whether the next generation is being pulled toward capitalism or casino-style speculation. It’s a thoughtful, entertaining look at what history can teach investors trying to protect and grow their pile. About Meb Faber: Faber is a co-founder and the Chief Investment Officer of Cambria Investment Management. Faber is the manager of Cambria’s ETFs and separate accounts. Mr. Faber is the host of The Meb Faber Show podcast and has authored numerous white papers and leather-bound books. He is a frequent speaker and writer on investment strategies and has been featured in Barron’s, The New York Times, and The New Yorker. Mr. Faber graduated from the University of Virginia with a double major in Engineering Science and Biology. Faber's new book Investing in America: The Rise of a 250-Year Bull Market is available to order now. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
June 26 · 57 min
When the Music Stops in Private Markets | Protect the Pile Episode 17 w/ Leyla Kunimoto
Visit HedgeyeAM.com for more info 00:00 - Welcome to Protect the Pile 01:18 - Market Setup: S&P, Rates, Dollar and Credit Spreads 02:02 - Leyla Kunimoto’s Background and Accredited Investor Insights 04:38 - RPK’s Top 5 Market Notes 08:26 - Redemption Gates and “Semi-Liquid” Funds 12:01 - David Salem on the Yale Model vs. Democratized Alternatives 20:17 - The Problem With Retail Access to Private Equity 26:16 - Evergreen Funds, Secondaries and Liquidity Mismatch 32:24 - Valuation Markups and Day-One Gains 39:46 - Why IRR Can Mislead Investors 47:19 - How Private Market Stress Could Play Out 49:31 - Private Credit vs. Private Equity: Where Is the Bigger Risk This week on Protect the Pile, HAM Portfolio Managers R. Patrick Kent, David Salem and Sam Rahman dig into the growing risks and complexities inside private markets with special guest Leyla Kunimoto, founder and chief editor of Accredited Investor Insights. The discussion examines how private equity and private credit products have evolved from institutional, long-lockup vehicles into “semi-liquid” evergreen funds increasingly aimed at retail investors. The group breaks down redemption caps, liquidity mismatches, secondary transactions, valuation markups, IRR reporting, and why “democratized access” may come with tradeoffs investors do not fully see. They also debate whether private credit or private equity poses the bigger risk, how fund structures can obscure price discovery, and what happens when the music stops in a $15 trillion private markets ecosystem. About Leyla Kunimoto: Leyla Kunimoto is the founder and chief editor of Accredited Investor Insights, an independent newsletter focused on private markets from the limited partner perspective. With a background in finance and more than two decades of experience investing in public markets, she began researching private markets after expanding into real estate, private credit, and private equity in 2020. Frustrated by the lack of independent, investor-focused resources on alternative investments, Leyla launched Accredited Investor Insights in 2024 to examine the structures, valuations, mechanics, and fine print that often receive too little scrutiny. Her work covers private equity, private credit, and real estate, with a focus on how returns are calculated, reported, and understood by end investors. Accredited Investor Insights is read by major asset managers, ratings agencies, and financial publications. Leyla has been quoted in the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and other leading outlets. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
June 19 · 57 min
The Rebalance Steamroller | Protect the Pile Episode 16
In this episode of Protect the Pile, the RPK, Sam & Brooks discuss the market’s hidden flow machine. Brooks breaks down the June quarterly rebalance, explaining how Marvell, Flextronics, SpaceX, and major index changes forced large-scale buying, selling, and completion-index redistribution beneath the surface. The panel connects those mechanics to small-cap outperformance, mega-cap pressure, sector distortion, and the danger of fading a flow-driven trade too early. They also frame the backdrop of dollar strength, Fed balance-sheet risk, easing oil prices, financials, private credit, semis, software, Accenture’s AI-driven selloff, and Micron earnings. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
June 18 · 57 min
The Fed (Finally) Admits the Problem | Rooster Reacts | June 18, 2026
"Rooster Reacts" returns after a long break with Ryan “Rooster” Ricci evaluating Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as the new Fed chair. Ricci frames Warsh as “the new sheriff in town” and focuses on whether he can restore Fed credibility after years of missed inflation targets. He reacts positively to Warsh’s emphasis on price stability, accountability, better data, and less reliance on stale Fed projections, while remaining skeptical of repeated “task force” language and bureaucratic delay. The key takeaway: Warsh is saying the right things about inflation, real-time data, and market signals, but Ricci will be watching whether his actions match the rhetoric. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
June 12 · 1 hr 6 min
Neil Howe on the SpaceX IPO: Party Like It’s 1999? | Protect the Pile Episode 15
In this episode of Protect the Pile, Hedgeye Asset Management portfolio managers R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman, Brooks Cutright, and Neil Howe unpack whether today’s AI frenzy looks more like 1999, the railroad bubble, or something entirely new. The group debates market concentration, hyperscaler CapEx, AI commoditization, private-market excess, and how practitioners should navigate momentum without ignoring bubble risk. They also dive into SpaceX’s IPO, Starlink’s real business value, and the far-out promises embedded in the space economy. 00:00 Welcome & episode setup 01:00 Market backdrop: SpaceX IPO day, Iran deal chatter, and risk ranges 02:16 Patrick’s macro notebook: quads, healthcare, rates, energy, and Mag 7 05:37 SpaceX IPO vibes and late-’90s market flashbacks 10:47 Neil Howe on AI as a utility and historical bubble parallels 15:03 Is this 1999? Valuations, IPO mania, and private-market excess 23:04 Why today’s AI bubble is different: incumbents, backlash, and politics 28:02 AI, railroads, monopolies, and the race to build the “God model” 34:16 How practitioners manage AI exposure, momentum, and exit signals 37:36 AI bottlenecks: networking, foundries, hyperscalers, and picks-and-shovels 47:06 IP risk, web content, real-world AI models, and the bullish compute case 52:08 SpaceX IPO deep dive: Starlink, lunar mass drivers, space data centers, and lockups 01:01:05 Final thoughts Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
June 9 · 1 hr
Ep.140 Real Conversations | The Fractals of Finance: Richard Brennan on the Hidden Geometry of Markets
***This webcast originally aired live on Hedgeye.com on June 9, 2026*** Markets may look chaotic. But are they truly random? In this special Real Conversation, Hedgeye Founder and CEO Keith McCullough sits down with Richard Brennan, author of The Fractals of Finance: Determinism, Adaptation and the Geometry of Markets, for a fascinating discussion on the deeper structure driving financial markets. Brennan’s work challenges the conventional view that markets are clean, efficient machines. Instead, he argues they behave more like complex adaptive systems, shaped by feedback loops, human behavior, volatility clustering, regime change and recurring fractal patterns. That makes this a must-watch conversation for investors trying to understand what really drives trends, crashes, inflections and outlier moves. Keith has long been fascinated by fractals and the non-linear nature of markets. In this conversation, he and Brennan will explore why price action often rhymes across timeframes, why extreme events happen far more often than traditional models suggest and why the market’s apparent noise may reveal a deeper geometry. They’ll also discuss what fractals can teach investors about risk, trend formation, adaptability and the discipline required to navigate markets that are constantly changing. If you want to better understand how markets move, why patterns repeat and what investors can learn from the hidden architecture of price, this is a conversation you won’t want to miss. Visit Hedgeye.com for more great investing content. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
June 5 · 58 min
The Market’s Weak Zebra | Protect the Pile Episode 14
In the latest episode of Protect the Pile, RPK and Sam break down a volatile market setup: strong U.S. growth data, tightening dollar liquidity, tech factor reversals, and continued strength in semiconductors despite a sharp pullback. Patrick and Sam debate whether current conditions remain Quad 2 or are drifting toward Quad 1 or Quad 3, with health care showing early relative strength. They also dig into the oil supply shock, China’s inventory drawdowns, fuel-shortage risks, Bitcoin’s weakening use case, and how stablecoins could reshape payments and challenge legacy financial rails. 00:00 — Welcome 00:57 — Market setup: tech pressure, semis strength, and global leaders 02:59 — Dollar liquidity, crypto weakness, and the “weak zebra” 04:21 — Strong U.S. data and the Quad 2 backdrop 08:10 — Tech whiplash, momentum unwinds, and breadth 12:13 — Sector rotation: health care, financials, and small caps 17:42 — Quad 1, Quad 2, and the risk of Quad 3 ahead 19:25 — Memory stocks, DRAM pricing, and AI demand 29:18 — Macro risks: dollar strength, Fed pressure, and oil 30:18 — The oil shock hiding in plain sight 35:29 — Inventory drawdowns, tanker flows, and refinery risks 39:07 — Could fuel shortages hit the U.S.? 43:35 — Bitcoin, stablecoins, and the future of payments 49:09 — Big Tech, peer-to-peer payments, and stablecoin networks 53:24 — Closing thoughts Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
June 1 · 59 min
When Passive Money Meets Mega IPOs | Protect the Pile Episode 13
In this episode of Protect the Pile, the team covers liquidity-driven market strength, record S&P levels, resilient global equities, and oil’s strange weakness despite tightening inventories. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman, David Salem, and new HAM portfolio manager Brooks Cutright discuss index mechanics, free-float rules, profitability tests, and how massive IPOs could reshape passive buying. Sam shares takeaways from Bernstein’s conference, including AI data-center delays, power constraints, and semiconductor momentum. The panel also debates whether energy markets are mispricing crude shortages, potential demand destruction, and late-summer fuel risks. Brooks introduces his index-rebalance background and explains why index inclusion matters. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
May 28 · 50 min
Ep. 139 Real Conversations | Resilience & Winning Through Uncertainty w/ Sam Goodwin
We hosted a powerful "Real Conversation" between Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Sam Goodwin — bestselling author, keynote speaker, and global traveler turned hostage survivor. In 2019, Sam's quest to visit every country on Earth took a violent detour. He was abducted by the Syrian regime, accused of being a CIA spy, and threatened with being handed to ISIS for beheading. He survived, wrote about it, and turned the experience into a framework for thriving in chaos. In Sam's own words from Saving Sam: "After a twenty-minute ride, a Syrian military compound lined with barbed wire and concrete fences appeared out of nowhere in a field. We pulled in… As I got out, it dawned on me that they had all been waiting just for me." (pg. 30) Perspective matters. Markets will always test your comfort level — that’s how resilience is built. The best investors, like the strongest people, don’t fight uncertainty; they embrace it, adapt, and come out stronger on the other side. That is the heartbeat of Hedgeye's process, and it is the foundation of Sam's signature program, "Winning Through Uncertainty." In this timely conversation, Keith and Sam draw a straight line from surviving captivity to surviving markets. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.
May 23 · 1 hr 4 min
"The Machine Runs on Liquidity" | Protect the Pile Episode 12
In this episode of Protect the Pile, RPK and Sam discuss strong earnings, tech leadership, lower volatility, and a possible Quad 2-to-Quad 3 transition favoring healthcare over industrials. Nvidia’s results were strong, but AI bottlenecks are shifting toward CPUs, networking, and compute capacity. They debate hyperscaler spending, Anthropic/OpenAI demand, and AI monetization. Energy remains a key risk, with Strait of Hormuz disruptions, inventory draws, and stagflationary pressure. They close on momentum, liquidity, risk ranges, portfolio discipline, Nasdaq hedging, and future IPOs Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

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