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Artwork for Futures Research Unpacked
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Futures Research Unpacked

Wensupu Yang

Futures Research Unpacked explores thought-provoking research in futures studies,
strategic foresight, and related fields. Each episode breaks down one paper in a
way that's easy to follow but still rich in ideas.

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  • 20 episodes
  • English

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  • June 29 · length unknown

    #67 - An audit for organizational futurists: ten questions every organizational futurist should be able to answer

    Imagine you’ve just been hired as an internal futurist for a global corporation. You have the trends, the scenarios, and a clear vision of the horizon. But at your first big steering committee meeting, a senior executive leans in and asks the dreaded question: "So, what exactly is it that you do here?" It is the ultimate test of professional identity in a field that can often feel like a mix of rigorous analysis and intuitive art. In this episode, we dive into a foundational piece by Andy Hines that serves as a professional health check for anyone practicing foresight within an organization. Hines argues that the era of the isolated "strategic planner" is largely over; the modern internal futurist must operate as a "broker," balancing the delivery of tangible insights with the long-term, often subtle work of shifting organizational culture. He provides a ten-question audit designed to move foresight from a niche, misunderstood activity to an institutionalized, strategic capability. The paper is a masterclass in pragmatism, offering frameworks for everything from time management—advocating for a heavy focus on process over pure content—to navigating the treacherous waters of corporate politics. Hines shares hard-won lessons from his time at Kellogg and Dow Chemical, providing a realistic look at how to identify your "bridge-builders" and how to handle the inevitable "laggards." It is an essential guide for ensuring that futures thinking doesn't just happen in a vacuum, but actually changes the way an organization makes decisions today. The 70/20/10 Rule: Why internal futurists should spend the majority of their time on process (facilitation and engagement) rather than just generating trend reports. Organizational Positioning: An exploration of the different "voices" a futurist can adopt, from "stealth" operators to "inside-outside" brokers. Stakeholder Mapping: How to categorize your internal audience—true believers, bridge-builders, fence-sitters, and laggards—to tailor your communication effectively. Leadership Styles: Applying emotional intelligence and varied leadership styles to influence culture and ensure foresight takes root. Tune in as we explore the essential audit every organizational futurist needs to pass to ensure their work truly sticks. Ref: Andy Hines. An audit for organizational futurists: ten questions every organizational futurist should be able to answer. Foresight, 5, 2003, 20-33. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310471262

  • June 28 · length unknown

    #66 - An integrated three-layered foresight framework

    Imagine you’re steering a massive cargo ship toward a horizon that is constantly shifting. In a world of 'postnormal' change and 'wicked' problems, how do you decide which way to turn when every trend seems to point in a different direction? This episode explores a powerful new tool designed to help decision-makers navigate exactly this kind of complexity by looking at the 'inertia' of the world around us. The researchers introduce an integrated three-layered framework that stacks trends based on how long they’ve been unfolding. By analyzing century-long shifts, 50-year economic cycles known as Kondratieff waves, and shorter-term megatrends in conjunction, the authors argue we can reduce uncertainty and gain a much sharper view of the future. It’s a move away from simple forecasting toward a 'meta-level' understanding of how different forces of change interact and reinforce one another. We also dive into a practical case study involving the Port of Rotterdam, where this framework reveals a startling possibility: the era of hyper-globalization may be ending, shifting instead toward a focus on sustainability and hyper-connectivity. This insight doesn't just change a forecast; it fundamentally reshapes how one of the world's largest ports plans its land use and infrastructure for the next forty years. The Meta-Framework: Organizes trends into three layers of inertia (>100 years, +/- 50 years, and 10–30 years) to identify deep structural changes. K-Waves as a Linking Pin: Uses the regularity of 50-year economic cycles to indicate the timing and relevance of emerging technologies like 3D printing and autonomous driving. Systemic Interaction: Demonstrates how century-long trends, such as shifts in geopolitical world order, actually trigger the direction of the next major economic wave. Trend-Based Narratives: Moves beyond abstract data to create detailed stories that help organizations translate complex trend analysis into concrete strategy. Tune in to learn how to see through the noise of the present by reading the deep currents of history. Ref: Cornelis van Dorsser, Poonam Taneja. An integrated three-layered foresight framework. Foresight, 22, 2020, 250-272. ISSN 1463-6689. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-05-2019-0039

  • June 27 · length unknown

    #65 - Futures Studies as a Quest for Meaning

    Have you ever looked at the headlines and felt that "the future" sounds more like a looming disaster than a promise of progress? For many, the optimism of the mid-twentieth century has been replaced by a sense of global emergency, where the traditional markers of human success now impose non-negotiable costs on the planet. This episode explores a deeply personal and professional reflection on four decades in the futures field, asking how we can find genuine meaning and direction in what often feel like impossible times. In this paper, Richard Slaughter traces his journey from a postwar "year zero" to the heights of professional foresight, arguing that our current situation is fundamentally abnormal and unsustainable. He suggests that the core of the problem is a mismatch between human perception and environmental reality, driven by a near-exclusive focus on instrumental power and economic growth. To move beyond this impasse, Slaughter calls for a "quest for meaning" that utilizes "depth appreciation"—a way of seeing the world that looks past the superficial to find the interconnected layers of reality hidden in music, art, and the natural world. The application of Ken Wilber’s four quadrants to map the interior and exterior dimensions of the self and society. The role of "depth appreciation" in transforming casual observation into sustained, life-affirming engagement. A critique of "business-as-usual" as a dangerous illusion that ignores the primary reality of the earth's systems. The shift from strategic foresight (gaining advantage) to transformative foresight (civilizational healing). Tune in as we discuss how recovering our sense of authorship over society can help us navigate the descent toward a more viable future. Ref: Slaughter, Richard A. Futures Studies as a Quest for Meaning. World Futures Review, 2019, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756719870277

  • June 26 · length unknown

    #64 - Steering the future. The emergence of “Western” fu

    Have you ever looked at a complex problem and wished you could just plug it into a computer to find the "correct" version of next year? This paper by Elke Seefried takes us back to the mid-20th century, a time when scientists and politicians believed they could do exactly that [1, 2]. It explores the emergence of modern futures research—a field born from the high-stakes world of Cold War military planning and the new "meta-science" of cybernetics [3, 4]. Seefried dives into a period known as the high time of political planning, where there was a palpable "euphoria of steering": the belief that society could be rationalized, simulated, and perfectly guided toward progress [1, 5]. The research focuses on how this dream played out in West Germany and the United States, tracking the friction between different ways of seeing the future [1, 6]. We meet the data-driven modelers at the RAND Corporation, the philosophical "artists" of anticipation, and the social activists who wanted to put the future back into the hands of the people [4, 7-9]. Ultimately, the paper provides a sobering look at why this era of techno-optimism hit a wall in the 1970s, as the messy reality of social and political life proved too complex for even the most advanced simulations of the time [10, 11]. The field’s core methods—like systems analysis and the Delphi method—were imported directly from military operations and Cold War think tanks into civil government [4]. Foresight was divided into three distinct traditions: empirical-positivists focusing on data, normative thinkers seeking the "good" life, and emancipators advocating for public participation [8, 9, 12]. The concept of "feasibility thinking" (Machbarkeitsdenken) dominated the 1960s, treating social problems as engineering challenges to be solved [5, 13, 14]. The collapse of this steering euphoria in the early 1970s paved the way for the more pragmatic, human-centered, and ecological foresight practices we recognize today [11, 15]. Tune in to explore the rise and fall of the dream of a perfectly steered future. Ref: Elke Seefried. Steering the future. The emergence of “Western” futures research and its production of expertise, 1950s to early 1970s. European Journal of Futures Research, 15, 2014, 29. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-013-0029-y

  • June 25 · length unknown

    #63 - World Futures Day 2022: A mixed method approach to identify topics of a global futures agenda

    Imagine a 24-hour relay race where the baton isn't a piece of wood, but a conversation about the future, passed from time zone to time zone across the entire planet. This episode dives into an ambitious study that captures the essence of World Futures Day 2022, an open-access global dialogue where hundreds of participants—from students to seasoned futurists—joined forces to map out a global futures agenda. [1, 2] The researchers employ a robust mixed-methods approach to handle the sheer volume of unstructured data generated by this marathon event. By blending traditional qualitative content analysis with automated text mining techniques like Latent Dirichlet Allocation and experimental geographic mapping, the authors distill thousands of discussion slots into four core thematic clusters. [3-5] These clusters range from the search for systemic solutions to complex global problems like pandemics and war to the evolving relationship between humans and a hyper-technological future. [3, 6, 7] This paper matters because it provides a methodological framework for synthesizing collective intelligence in an age of polycrisis. It moves beyond mere observation, offering a structured way to understand what humanity actually wants—and fears—about the years to come. [8-10] Key takeaways from this global scan include: The identification of a 23-point agenda covering everything from eco-smart cities to AI global governance. [7] The use of probabilistic topic modeling to objectively validate and enrich human-led qualitative analysis. [4, 11] A unique geographic perspective on how different future-oriented concerns fluctuate across world longitudes. [5, 12] A strong call for universal futures literacy as a fundamental skill for all levels of society. [13, 14] Tune in to discover how we can turn a day of global conversation into a roadmap for systemic transformation. Ref: Mara Di Berardo, Simone Di Zio, Lara Fontanella. World Futures Day 2022: A mixed method approach to identify topics of a global futures agenda. Futures, 154, 2023, 103244. ISSN 0016-3287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103244

  • June 24 · length unknown

    #62 - 50 Years of corporate and organizational foresight_ Looking back and going forward

    Imagine a corporate planning meeting in 1972. The room is filled with complex charts and 'perfect' technological forecasts, yet the executives are completely ignoring them. It’s a scene of deep disillusionment. Why do even the most sophisticated predictions often fail to influence real-world business decisions? This episode dives into a landmark systematic literature review that tracks five decades of trying to solve that exact problem. By analyzing fifty years of research within the journal Technological Forecasting & Social Change, the authors trace the evolution of corporate foresight from a narrow focus on technological forecasting to a sophisticated, integrated discipline essential for organizational agility. They reveal how the field shifted from trying to 'predict' the future to using scenarios to prepare for irreducible uncertainty and market discontinuities. The paper doesn't just look back; it organizes the chaotic history of foresight into clear thematic arcs. We see how the focus moved from merely identifying external signals to the much harder task of integrating those signals into innovation, R&D, and strategic management. It serves as both a history lesson and a blueprint for the future of the field, highlighting where we’ve succeeded and where the 'bottlenecks' between foresight and action still remain. The 1970s 'disconnect': High-quality forecasts often failed because they weren't integrated into the resource allocation and planning cycles of the organization. The 1980s shift: The rise of 'planning for uncertainty' as companies abandoned pure prediction in favor of scenarios that anticipate discontinuities. Integration roles: Foresight serves three distinct purposes in innovation: as a 'strategist' directing activities, an 'initiator' feeding the front end, and an 'opponent' challenging legacy assumptions. Future trajectories: The next frontier involves leveraging AI, big data, and 'open foresight' across networked organizations to move toward real-time decision-making. Tune in as we unpack 50 years of wisdom to see how your organization can stop just looking at the future and start building it. Ref: Adam V. Gordon, Mirza Ramic, René Rohrbeck, Matthew J. Spaniol. 50 Years of corporate and organizational foresight: Looking back and going forward. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 154, 2020, 119966. ISSN 0040-1625. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119966

  • June 23 · length unknown

    #61 - Applying CLA to Technology Planning Old ＂American

    Imagine the internet isn't a cloud or a series of tubes, but a dusty, lawless frontier. Picture covered wagons, gold rushes, and train heists—only here, the "gold" is your intellectual capital, and the "railroads" are fiber-optic trade routes. This metaphor of the American West isn't just for Hollywood; it’s a powerful tool for understanding where our digital world is headed. In this episode, we unpack Maureen Rhemann’s fascinating application of Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) to technology planning. Rhemann argues that to truly grasp the future of the internet, we have to look past the wiring and circuitry and examine the underlying myths and social behaviors that drive us. By framing cyberspace as a site of "techno-homesteading," she moves beyond dry quantitative models to explore the human stories that will determine if the web continues to boom or eventually goes bust. Through this lens, the paper explores four provocative scenarios that challenge our assumptions about digital sustainability. By digging into the layers of litany, structural causes, and deep-seated metaphors, Rhemann provides a framework for planners to "truth-test" their strategies against a landscape that is as unpredictable as the old 19th-century frontier. The use of the "American West" as a macro-lens to make abstract technical challenges like bandwidth bottlenecks and cybersecurity relatable and visible. A breakdown of four possible internet trajectories: the Frontier Boom Town, the Trackless Train, the Frontier Stall, and the Western Hold Up. How Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) helps deconstruct the myths—like the idea that double-digit growth is inevitable—that often blind us to emerging risks. The concept of "cyber relocation," where human patterns of settlement, commerce, and even crime are mirrored in the virtual world. Tune in as we explore why the most advanced technology of the 21st century might find its best roadmap in the folklore of the 19th. Ref: Rhemann, Maureen. Applying CLA to Technology Planning: Old “American West Style” Web Homesteading -- Exploring Metaphoric Allegories to Enrich Four Internet Sustainability Scenarios. Journal of Futures Studies, 20(4), 2016, 99–106. https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2016.20(4).E99

  • June 22 · length unknown

    #60 - Curry and Schultz - Roads Less Travelled Different Methods, Different

    Imagine you’re tasked with mapping out the future of your organization. You gather the same data, the same experts, and the same concerns. But what if the very tool you choose to organize those thoughts—the "method" of your foresight—completely changed the final picture you drew? In this episode, we explore a fascinating experiment that asks: do different scenario-building methods generate distinctively different futures? This paper takes a single set of data regarding the future of civil society and re-processes it through four distinct frameworks: the corporate "gold standard" 2x2 matrix, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), the Manoa approach, and scenario archetypes. The authors move beyond theoretical debate to show how each method creates a unique "intellectual fulcrum," influencing not just the resulting narratives but the very quality of the conversation and engagement in the room. By comparing these outputs, the study reveals that while some methods excel at generating strategic clarity and logical "audit trails," others are far more effective at "disturbing the present" and surfacing deep-seated cultural myths. The findings suggest that relying on a single method may inadvertently limit our peripheral vision, making the choice of foresight tool a critical strategic decision in itself. The choice of method significantly alters whether a scenario feels like a static "snapshot" or a dynamic "network" of evolving events. Causal Layered Analysis is uniquely effective at disrupting prevailing worldviews by shifting focus from literal trends to underlying social metaphors. The 2x2 matrix provides high structural coherence but can often fail to "startle" participants or provoke transformation in deep structures. Methodological pluralism is essential to avoid the trap of wholly Western worldviews and to capture a more diverse array of potential outcomes. Tune in as we navigate the "roads less travelled" in futures research and discover why your choice of tool might be the most important decision you make. Ref: Andrew Curry, Wendy Schultz. Roads Less Travelled: Different Methods, Different Futures. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(4), 2009, 35-60.

  • June 21 · length unknown

    #59 - 2023 - The Case for Treating Reframing and Imagination as

    Imagine you’re a student on "panic day," the high-stakes moment when internship placements are announced. Your heart is racing, and your future feels like a blurry, frightening cloud of "what-ifs." Or perhaps you’re a mid-career professional facing long-term unemployment, feeling your sense of identity and value slip away with every rejection letter. In this episode, we dive into research on how "reframing" and "imagining"—traditionally seen as tools for designers or corporate strategists—are actually essential life skills for navigating the personal anxieties of an uncertain world. Drawing on two distinct studies—one involving journalism students and another with job-seeking academics—the author explores how active imagination can dismantle the paralyzing grip of uncertainty. Instead of viewing the future as a noun—a place we passively wait to arrive at—the paper argues we must treat it as a verb: an active space for creation and personal agency. The findings highlight a fascinating tension: while some students dismissed these creative exercises as "unserious," the job-seeking professionals found them transformative. By visualizing their "worst-case" scenarios, participants weren't wallowing in pessimism; they were actually grounding their fears, which allowed them to move from passive waiting to entrepreneurial action. This study bridges the gap between neuropsychology and futures literacy, showing that our ability to change the meaning we attach to our struggles is perhaps our greatest superpower in the 21st century. Reframing Uncertainty: Transitioning from viewing anxiety as a threat to treating it as a creative resource through cognitive flexibility. Future as a Verb: Adopting the perspective that the future is something we actively "do" rather than a destination we passively inhabit. The Worst-Case Benefit: How visualizing negative scenarios can make fears concrete, identifying actionable paths and reducing psychological paralysis. Identity Decoupling: Using "life-centred design" to separate personal value from professional status, particularly during periods of career transition. Tune in as we unpack how to transform your worries into creative energy and learn to see the "tragic gap" as a launchpad for your next big move. Ref: Sørensen, Kirsten Bonde. The Case for Treating Reframing and Imagination as Powerful Life Skills. 2023.

  • June 19 · length unknown

    #58 - From Strategic to Transformative Foresight: Using Space to Transform Time

    Have you ever felt like your workday is just a relentless trek through a thick, tangled jungle? You're so busy dodging daily fires and hacking through red tape that the very idea of looking at the horizon—let alone the stars—seems like a luxury you can't afford. This feeling isn't just burnout; it’s a symptom of being trapped in a specific spatial reality that dictates how you see the future. In this episode, we explore a profound conversation between Sohail Inayatullah and John A. Sweeney about evolving the "strategic landscape" model. We unpack how organizations can move beyond the "jungle" of competition and the "chessboard" of cold strategy to reach the "mountain tops" of scenarios and the "star" of core vision. The authors argue that the real tragedy of modern foresight is when it becomes purely strategic—a zero-sum game of optimization—rather than transformative. To change the future, they suggest, we must first change the "self" and the deep metaphors we live by. The Four Terrains: Mapping organizational life across the Jungle (chaos/competition), the Chessboard (rational strategy), the Mountain Tops (scenarios), and the Star (vision). From Strategy to Transformation: Why the goal of foresight should shift from "winning" to creating emergence and collective learning. The Power of Narrative: Moving from the metaphor of the "castle under siege" to the "jazz orchestra" to foster flexibility and excellence. Inner Landscapes: Using Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) to bring the "I" into the model, ensuring personal transformation matches systemic change. Tune in as we discuss how to put space back into time and find the energy for genuine systemic transformation. Ref: Sohail Inayatullah, John A. Sweeney. From Strategic to Transformative Foresight: Using Space to Transform Time. World Futures Review, 13(1), 2021, 27–33. https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756720971743

  • June 18 · length unknown

    #57 - Microsoft Word - MillerSandford_FLChapter_FINAL Revised Clean July 12 2018.docx

    Think about the last time you planned for the future. Were you trying to predict a likely outcome, or were you actually open to something entirely new? Most of our 'future-thinking' is actually just a projection of the past, leaving us blind to the unexpected changes happening right under our noses. This episode explores the concept of 'Futures Literacy,' a transformative human capability that changes how we see the present by diversifying how we imagine what's next. In this foundational paper, Riel Miller and Richard Sandford argue that being literate about the future is a skill as vital as reading or writing. They move beyond simple forecasting to explore 'Anticipation for Emergence'—the ability to sense and make sense of novelty as it arises. By uncovering the 'filters' or assumptions we use to imagine the future, we can stop being prisoners of our own expectations and start navigating complexity with greater agency and creativity. The distinction between 'Anticipation for the Future' (planning and preparation) and 'Anticipation for Emergence' (openness to novelty). A breakdown of the Futures Literacy Framework (FLF), which categorizes the assumptions we use to construct our imaginary worlds. Insights from 'Futures Literacy Laboratories,' a collective intelligence method designed to help people uncover their tacit beliefs about the future. How developing this skill allows us to 'walk on two legs,' balancing the need for planning with the capacity to improvise in an uncertain world. Tune in as we unpack how to stop colonizing the future and start living more fully in a complex, emergent present. Ref: Riel Miller, Richard Sandford. Futures Literacy: The Capacity to Diversify Conscious Human Anticipation. Handbook of Anticipation, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_77-1

  • June 17 · length unknown

    #56 - Futures literacy and the diversity of the future

    Have you ever wondered why we treat 'the future' like a storm on the horizon we have to prepare for, rather than a house we are currently designing? Most of us act based on hidden assumptions about what’s coming next, yet we rarely stop to ask if our way of 'using' the future is actually helping us solve the complex crises of the 21st century. In this episode, we dive into research that argues being truly 'futures literate' is about much more than mastering scenario planning or trend analysis. It introduces the concept of 'reflexivity'—the capacity to critically examine the underlying assumptions, expectations, and power structures that shape how we think about the 'later-than-now.' By becoming literate about the different attitudes we hold toward the future, we can move from being passive observers to active designers of meaning. The authors unpack how different intellectual traditions—from risk management to critical sociology—make fundamentally different claims about what the future is and how it manifests in the present. They warn that an over-reliance on predictive, data-driven models can 'close down' our collective imagination, making us reactive rather than transformative. To combat this, they propose a framework that embraces a diversity of approaches, including experimental and critical methods that can open up new pathways for social change. Ultimately, the research suggests that 'Techniques of Futuring' are not just tools for accuracy, but social practices that bring people together around shared orientations for action. By understanding which approach is 'fit-for-purpose' for a given challenge, we can better navigate the ideological power that goes into shaping our world. Reflexivity as a core component of futures literacy, allowing us to identify the 'prior commitments' framing our knowledge. A categorization of four distinct epistemological attitudes: Predictive, Plausible, Experimental, and Critical. The insight that shaping the future is a form of 'ideological power' that coordinates action in the present. The role of 'Techniques of Futuring' in creating shared realities that can inspire transformative change. Tune in as we explore how to broaden your perspective and become an active designer of meaning in an uncertain world. Ref: Astrid C. Mangnus, Jeroen Oomen, Joost M. Vervoort, Maarten A. Hajer. Futures literacy and the diversity of the future. Futures, 132, 2021, 102793. ISSN 0016-3287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2021.102793

  • June 16 · length unknown

    #55 - The Forthcoming Artificial Intelligence (AI) Revolution: Its Impact on Society and Firms

    Imagine it is 1995 and someone tells you that in just twenty years, you will carry a device in your pocket more powerful than a supercomputer, capable of navigating complex cities and translating foreign languages in real-time [1]. This paper explores the next leap: the "forthcoming AI revolution," arguing that its impact will likely surpass that of the Industrial and Digital revolutions combined [2], [3]. The author, Spyros Makridakis, evaluates his own past predictions from 1995—noting where he correctly foresaw wireless connectivity but missed the explosive rise of the smartphone—to set the stage for what he expects by the year 2037 [4], [5], [6]. The core of the research delves into how AI differs from previous technologies by moving beyond pre-programmed logic to "deep learning" that mimics the human mind [7], [8]. This shift creates a competitive landscape where firms must navigate four potential futures: a techno-utopia, a dystopian loss of human agency, a pragmatic human-AI partnership, or a world where human creativity remains the ultimate un-hackable asset [9], [10], [11], [12]. Makridakis argues that while the risks are profound, the potential for augmenting human intelligence offers a path toward unprecedented productivity and wealth [13], [14]. The AI revolution aims to substitute or amplify practically all mental tasks, posing the first serious challenge to human supremacy [15], [16], [17]. Firms of the future will likely be smaller and more innovative, driven by "big data" and intense global competition that favors early adopters of AI [18], [19], [20]. While nearly half of existing occupations face automation, new roles emphasizing social skills, creativity, and interpersonal expertise will likely emerge to fill the gap [21], [22], [23]. Tune in as we unpack whether we are heading toward a life as leisurely "modern Athenians" or running the risk of becoming well-fed pets of our own inventions [24], [25], [10]. Ref: Makridakis, S. The Forthcoming Artificial Intelligence (AI) Revolution: Its Impact on Society and Firms. Futures, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.03.006

  • June 15 · length unknown

    #54 - To Augment Human Capacity—Artificial Intelligence Evolution through Causal Layered Analysis

    Have you ever wondered why our visions of artificial intelligence seem to constantly oscillate between a tech-fueled paradise and a dystopian nightmare? It turns out, these stories aren't just modern reactions to Silicon Valley—they are part of a five-thousand-year-old human journey to expand the boundaries of our own minds, bodies, and social structures. This episode dives into a fascinating genealogical study that moves beyond the typical timeline of microchips and algorithms. Instead, the research uses Causal Layered Analysis to peel back the historical layers of AI, examining how our cultural worldviews and deep-seated myths have shaped the technology we see today. By looking at "discontinuities" in history—moments where society fundamentally changed how it thinks—the paper reveals that our current obsession with AI is deeply rooted in an ancient drive for "advantage," whether that’s military, economic, or spiritual. The author traces AI through five distinct eras, starting from ancient calculation tools like the abacus to the modern era of machine-inspired hope and vulnerability. This perspective is crucial because it helps us understand that AI isn't just a technical achievement; it's a reflection of our collective psyche. By analyzing the "litany" of news headlines alongside the deeper "myths" of the brain-as-machine, the study offers a powerful framework for anticipating how AI might evolve over the next twenty years and how we might steer it toward a more humanitarian future. AI development is cyclical rather than linear, characterized by alternating "winters" of disillusionment and "summers" of intense investment. The core worldview driving AI has consistently been the pursuit of "advantage," shifting from the physical mechanization of labor to the centrality of data-driven reasoning. Deep-seated metaphors, such as the "brain as a machine," have remained remarkably stable for millennia, continuing to bias our current policy and design choices. Current global tensions have created a "risk-benefit duality" where machine-inspired hope and human vulnerability coexist in our daily digital interactions. Tune in to explore how the ghosts of 5,000 years of human ambition are still haunting the code of our newest AI assistants. Ref: Farrow, E. To Augment Human Capacity—Artificial Intelligence Evolution through Causal Layered Analysis. Futures, 2019. ISSN 0016-3287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2019.02.022

  • June 14 · length unknown

    #53 - Organisational Artificial Intelligence Future Scen

    Imagine a Tuesday in 2038. You arrive at 'work,' but the very meaning of the word has shifted. Your closest collaborator isn’t a human colleague, but a sophisticated algorithm you’ve come to regard as your 'Best Robot Friend Forever.' While it handles the data-heavy drudgery you never enjoyed, you are free to focus on higher-level strategy and creative problem-solving. This isn't just a scene from a sci-fi novel; it’s a plausible future for the organizations we inhabit. In this episode, we explore research that moves beyond the binary 'man vs. machine' debate to examine how Artificial Intelligence is fundamentally reshaping organizational ecology. By synthesizing insights from professional futurists using the 'Six Pillars' methodology, the study unpacks how our deeply held metaphors—often inherited from fiction—shape our readiness for an automated world. It challenges the traditional view of workers as 'cogs in a machine' and proposes a future where leadership and team structures are redefined by inclusivity, experimentation, and shared agency between humans and AI. The 'Best Robot Friend Forever' (BRFF) metaphor highlights a transition from viewing AI as a tool to seeing it as a collegial partner in a diverse workforce. Future leadership must shift from hierarchical control to a facilitator role, managing the emotional and ethical implications of a hybrid human-AI environment. Organizational adaptation is framed as a multi-layered process, where success depends on navigating the 'weight' of historical capitalist systems and the 'push' of emerging technological drivers. By 2038, AI is predicted to become ubiquitous—a technology so woven into the fabric of daily operations that it is no longer discussed as a separate entity. Tune in as we deconstruct the roadmap to a truly augmented organizational future. Ref: Farrow, Elissa. Organisational Artificial Intelligence Future Scenarios: Futurists Insights and Implications for the Organisational Adaptation Approach, Leader and Team. Journal of Futures Studies, 24(3), 2020, 1–15. ISSN 1027-6084. https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202003 24(3).0001

  • June 13 · length unknown

    #52 - Evolution of framework foresight

    Have you ever felt overwhelmed by a mountain of scanning data, trying to figure out which trends actually matter for your organization's future? The challenge of professional foresight isn't just finding information; it's organizing it into a coherent story that leads to meaningful action. In this episode, we explore 'Framework Foresight,' a systematic methodology developed to guide projects from initial framing to final implementation. Author Andy Hines traces the evolution of this 'Houston Way' of doing futures work, detailing how the method has been refined through a continuous feedback loop between graduate-level teaching and real-world client engagements. The result is a modular 'meta-method' that allows practitioners to swap in various techniques while maintaining a logical flow from research to strategy. We break down the significant upgrades made to the framework over the last decade, including the integration of the Three Horizons model for timing and a modified version of Jim Dator’s four archetypes for scenario development. By shifting from a cluttered set of inputs to a streamlined 'TIPPS' model and using thematic drivers as building blocks, the framework helps bridge the gap between identifying 'weak signals' and making high-stakes strategic choices. The TIPPS model (Trends, Issues, Plans, and Projections) provides a simplified structure for categorizing complex future research. The use of four scenario archetypes—Continuation, Collapse, New Equilibrium, and Transformation—ensures a robust range of alternative futures is explored for any domain. A specialized rating exercise helps organizations prioritize strategic attention by measuring scenario likelihood against their own levels of unpreparedness. Tune in to learn how to turn the messy art of futures exploration into a disciplined, evolving framework for long-term success. Ref: Andy Hines. Evolution of framework foresight. foresight, 2020. ISSN 1463-6689. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-03-2020-0018

  • June 12 · length unknown

    #51 - Building Foresight Capacity Toward a Foresight Co

    Imagine you're asked to lead your organization through a period of radical uncertainty. Do you rely on gut instinct, or is there a specific set of professional skills you can sharpen to navigate what's coming? While many of us 'think about the future' as a part of our daily lives, the question of what actually constitutes professional expertise in foresight has remained surprisingly elusive—until now. In this episode, we dive into a landmark effort to professionalize the field of futures studies. We examine a multi-year journey by a global task force that sought to define the specific knowledge, skills, and attributes required to be a professional futurist. This work shifts the conversation from foresight as a property of an organization to foresight as a cognitive ability of the individual, providing a rigorous benchmark for what it means to lead in an increasingly complex world. By breaking down the practice into six core technical competencies—framing, scanning, futuring, visioning, designing, and adapting—this research provides a roadmap for practitioners to move beyond simple trend-watching toward intentional system transformation. This model offers a structured way to turn the 'intangible asset' of human foresight into a measurable professional advantage, whether through individual career development or organizational team building. Distinguishes between basic 'competence' (threshold performance) and 'competencies' required for superior performance in identifying emergent patterns. Identifies six core technical practices that define the professional toolkit: framing, scanning, futuring, visioning, designing, and adapting. Bridges the gap between traditional strategic planning and modern design-led foresight through the inclusion of prototyping and artifact creation. Provides practical use cases for both individuals and team leaders to map strengths and systematically address skill gaps. Tune in as we unpack the essential toolkit for anyone serious about professionalizing the way we anticipate and shape the future. Ref: Andy Hines, Jay Gary, Cornelia Daheim, Luke van der Laan. Building Foresight Capacity: Toward a Foresight Competency Model. World Futures Review, 2017, 1-19.

  • June 11 · length unknown

    #50 - Farewell Alternative Futures?

    Imagine you're standing at a crossroads where every path leading to a bright, prosperous tomorrow seems to be closing off, one by one. For decades, the field of futures studies promised us a menu of "alternative futures" we could choose and build. But what if that menu is being pulled from the table? In this episode, we explore Richard Slaughter's sobering yet essential reflection on the current state of foresight. Slaughter argues that the classic optimistic notion of "alternative futures"—where humanity has unqualified agency to design its destiny—no longer holds the same credibility. He examines how massive systemic shifts like the Anthropocene, the rise of organized denialism, and the "progress traps" of our own history have funneled us toward a far more constrained global trajectory. We’ll look at how the evolution of futures studies itself has moved from simple trend-counting to a deep "critical turn" that incorporates values, power structures, and integral theory. Slaughter suggests that while the dream of generically different global macro-futures may be fading, human agency hasn't been nullified. Instead, it has shifted to more localized, "mosaic" responses centered on renewal, resilience, and navigating the inevitable "bottleneck" of our high-tech civilization. The end of "unqualified agency" in the face of planetary boundaries and the Anthropocene. The impact of "unreality industries" and neoliberalism in sabotaging collective foresight. The concept of "progress traps"—how past successes, from farming to the internet, created deferred costs we are now forced to pay. A shift toward "integral futures" that uses interpretive power and visionary potential to find meaning within a singular, challenging macro-future. Tune in as we say "farewell" to easy optimism and "hello" to the hard work of building a viable path through the civilisational bottleneck. Ref: Richard A. Slaughter. Farewell Alternative Futures?. Futures, 2019, 102496. ISSN 0016-3287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2019.102496

  • June 10 · length unknown

    #49 - Not Organic Gardening or Rocket Science New Metap

    If someone told you that dumping 100 tons of iron into the Pacific Ocean was just 'organic gardening,' would you believe them? This is the starting point for a fascinating exploration into the power of the metaphors we use to describe geoengineering—large-scale interventions designed to fix our climate. In this episode, we dive into John Sweeney’s analysis of how these stories aren't just colorful language; they are political tools that shape which futures we can imagine and which ones we've already given up on. Sweeney uses Causal Layered Analysis to peel back the levels of our 'geoengineered imaginaries.' He examines the maverick 'geo-vigilante' persona of entrepreneurs alongside the formal, regulatory 'Oxford Principles.' What he finds is a field stuck in a 'used future'—a reliance on old institutional rules and binary politics that fails to address the radical uncertainty of our current climate emergency. By deconstructing these narratives, the paper challenges us to move beyond mere strategic foresight toward something more transformative. Deconstructs the 'organic gardening' metaphor used to mask the ethical and ecological risks of ocean iron fertilization. Critiques current regulatory frameworks for prioritizing existing rules over deep, participatory engagement with future generations. Proposes a shift from 'finite games'—where the goal is a specific technical win—to 'infinite games' that aim to keep the planet and its people 'in play.' Introduces the reframed metaphor of 'Joyful Poets' to represent a new, collaborative politics of collective experimentation. Tune in as we unpack why saving the world might require us to start playing a completely different kind of game. Ref: Sweeney, John A. Not Organic Gardening or Rocket Science: New Metaphors (and a Politics) for Geoengineered Imaginaries. Journal of Futures Studies, 28(1), 2023, 101-113. https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202309_28(1).0009

  • June 9 · length unknown

    #48 - Drilling and Blasting to Learn Scenario Construction: Experimenting with Causal Layered Analysis as a Disruption of Scenario Work

    Have you ever felt like your strategic planning was just a more sophisticated version of "more of the same"? You identify the trends, you map the uncertainties, but somehow the future you end up with looks suspiciously like a polished version of the present. In this episode, we dive into a fascinating pedagogical experiment from the University of Turku that aims to break that cycle. The researchers explore a technique they call "drilling and blasting"—using Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) not at the start or end of a scenario project, but as a deliberate disruption right in the middle. By forcing researchers to pause and deconstruct their burgeoning scenarios through the lenses of worldviews and metaphors, they aim to prevent the "mental funnel" that often traps scenario work in narrow, path-dependent tracks. The paper argues that these "nested disruptions" are vital for moving beyond surface-level observations (the "litany") and systemic drivers to reach the deeper cultural myths that truly shape our perception of what’s possible. Through a case study involving Finnish financial sector futures, the authors demonstrate how this method helps students and practitioners alike build the "tolerance for disruption" necessary for genuine foresight. The concept of a "nested disruption" where CLA interrupts a scenario process that is itself an interruption of daily business. How a "path-dependent" scenario process can ironically limit options by locking researchers into their early choices. Why the "myth and metaphor" layer of analysis is the most difficult—yet most rewarding—step for reframing the future. The pedagogical value of forcing reflexive pauses to increase the quality and depth of strategic dialogue. Tune in as we explore how a little bit of methodological "blasting" can clear the way for more transformative and critical futures thinking. Ref: Matti Minkkinen, Sirkka Heinonen, Marjukka Parkkinen. Drilling and Blasting to Learn Scenario Construction: Experimenting with Causal Layered Analysis as a Disruption of Scenario Work. World Futures Review, 11(3), 2019, 269-281. https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756718774940

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