
OpenRouter State of Models - Peter Walker
Open-weight models now handle most of the tokens on OpenRouter. But the closed labs are still taking most of the money. OpenRouter Head of Insights Peter Walker joins us to explain what that gap means and what OpenRouter's data shows about who's actually winning the model race. Peter, who led insights at Carta before OpenRouter, walks us through the day agents overtook humans in token usage and how quickly open-weight models are catching up to the frontier labs. We also discuss why the labs keep replacing their own models, whether models are turning into commodities, the top 1% of AI spenders and the Anthropic IPO, decision models like Jev, why everyone's a little benchmarked out and whether AI is actually getting cheaper per task. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 0:43 What OpenRouter does 2:13 Joining Stripe 2:40 OpenRouter's rankings data 3:48 Agents overtake humans in token usage 5:06 Open-weight models are closing the gap 5:47 How much of the market OpenRouter sees 7:00 How fast token usage is growing 7:54 Where the money goes: open vs. closed 9:01 Do companies spend less as they mature? 10:49 Why labs cannibalize their own models 12:07 What if open models hit 99% of tokens? 12:56 Are models becoming commodities? 14:15 The top 1% of AI spenders and the Anthropic IPO 15:54 Jev and the rise of decision models 17:20 Why we're all benchmarked out 18:36 Is most AI work just classification? 19:20 Why caching keeps getting better 20:34 Cost per token vs. cost per task
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