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Eventual

Prediction Markets. Decoded.

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22 episodes
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#46
Thursday · 40 min
PM Trader, Roger Marshall & midterms roulette
Alex and PMT assess whether prediction markets have pushed the expected Democratic wave too far, identifying Annie Andrews and Roger Marshall as places where Republican prices may now offer value. They largely hold firm on Mary Peltola despite the Alaska ballot-recruitment scandal, while warning that poor weather could disproportionately suppress Republican election-day turnout. PMT explains how correlated combo markets may offer better longshot returns than betting individual races in isolation
#45
Wednesday · 43 min
Mary Peltola, election penny stocks & mailbag
Six days before the election, Alex and Pratik see prediction markets becoming increasingly efficient and argue that keeping cash available for election-night overreactions may offer more edge than forcing new positions now. They largely dismiss Mary Peltola’s Alaska ballot-recruitment story as a scandal unlikely to move ordinary voters, while treating South Carolina as a real—but increasingly expensive—blue-wave longshot. Pratik introduces a speculative strategy of buying ultra-cheap 2028 presid
#44
Tuesday · 1 hr 29 min
Michigan, Indiana & the early vote | Zach Gorchow & Niki Kelly
One week from Election Day, early voting appears favorable to Democrats, though Alex and Brian warn that turnout data is useful signal—not a final result. In Michigan, Zach Gorchow says Abdul El-Sayed is favored but vulnerable, while Mike Rogers’ late repositioning suggests his campaign sees serious danger. Gorchow also highlights multiple competitive House races and points traders toward Rochester, the college towns and deep-red counties for election-night clues. In Indiana, Niki Kelly calls th
#43
October 22 · 1 hr 29 min
The early vote in TX, OH & more | Garrett Fulce
Alex and Domer remain heavily positioned for a blue wave but question whether several Democratic Senate candidates have become overpriced. Logan Phillips sees Democrats favored in Ohio, competitive in Georgia and broadly advantaged, while warning that strong Republican candidates could still survive. Looking toward 2028, he identifies Jon Ossoff, AOC and Pete Buttigieg as the early Democratic frontrunners, with Wes Moore as a plausible long shot. In Texas, Garrett Fulce cautions against overread
#42
October 20 · 1 hr 32 min
Iowa, blue tsunami & affordability | Conor Sen
Alex Keeney and Brian Golden examine whether the late-breaking Democratic surge has further to run, from Michael Bloomberg’s $80 million midterm push to an increasingly competitive map in Iowa. Bleeding Heartland’s Laura Belin goes deep on Rob Sand’s gubernatorial bid, Ashley Hinson versus Josh Turek and three Iowa House races, explaining how candidate quality, turnout, third-party votes and the state’s notoriously difficult polling environment could shape Election Day. Conor Sen then joins to c
#41
October 15 · 1 hr 9 min
Chris Cillizza, Katie Zacharia's woes & the OG political trader | Chris Cillizza
Alex Keeney and Domer check in on the final stretch of the 2026 midterms, the expanding Republican defensive map and the increasingly tradable drama surrounding White House press secretary Katie Zacharia. Chris Cillizza joins to assess races in Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Nebraska and South Carolina, while also looking ahead to the political figures and narratives that could dominate immediately after Election Day. Veteran political bookmaker Paul “Motty” Krishnamurty then explains how he sets election o
#40
October 15 · 1 hr 3 min
NFL, CFTC vs. PMs & YOLO plays | Mick Bransfield
Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule break down the turbulence surrounding Katie Zacharia and Kimberly Guilfoyle and how political scandals can produce noisy prediction markets. They then hunt for late-cycle midterm longshots, using Victoria Spartz as a case study in finding vulnerable incumbents after the obvious election trades have already been priced in. Mick Bransfield joins to explain Kalshi’s court battles, CFTC rulemaking and the uncertain future of sports and mention markets. The show closes
#39
October 13 · 1 hr 34 min
Modeling secrets, Florida & inflation | Eli Mckown-Dawson
Alex Keeney and Brian Golden examine Democrats’ expanding House battlefield and how traders can search for overlooked opportunities as Election Day approaches. Silver Bulletin’s Eli McKown-Dawson goes inside FLIPR, explaining how polling, fundamentals, candidate quality and expert ratings become election probabilities—and why late polling movement may be less dramatic than traders expect. Two-time perfect-map caller Blitz then argues Florida remains more Republican than some recent polling sugge
#38
October 12 · 33 min
Election horror show, NFL vs PMs & Guilfoyle’s peril
Alex Keeney and Domer examine the NFL’s escalating fight with prediction markets and what it could mean for Kalshi, sports contracts and the industry’s legal future. In Texas, repeated Ken Paxton controversies have them increasingly confident in James Talarico while searching for longer-shot Democratic upside elsewhere on the ballot. OpenAI’s latest math breakthroughs spark a broader discussion about AGI, catastrophic AI risk and whether markets are prepared for a genuinely disruptive AI event.
#37
October 7 · 1 hr 48 min
Nobel Prize, Meatball & scandals 101 | Nick Reynolds & Haakon Gjerløw
Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule investigate how far a Democratic wave could reach, with Nick Reynolds explaining why South Carolina remains difficult terrain even as Republicans spend to protect Darlene Graham. Gaetan Dugas breaks down which political scandals actually move voters and where controversy could matter in races from Kansas to Texas. William Keydjani hunts for value beyond the outright winner in Britain’s Holborn and St Pancras by-election, using vote-share and third-place markets to
#36
October 6 · 1 hr 32 min
Plague panic, Senate tsunami & trade war | Ryan Jespersen
Alex Keeney and Brian Golden examine whether an increasingly difficult midterm map is creating value in Democratic longshots from Texas to South Carolina. Trader Nick Pappas looks one election ahead, arguing that November’s winners and losers could immediately reshape prediction markets for AOC, JD Vance, James Talarico, Raphael Warnock and the rest of the 2028 field. The show also investigates the emerging plague scare in Russia and whether traders are pricing panic rather than pandemic risk. F
#35
October 1 · 1 hr 33 min
Ohio, AI & Inflation get hot | Jim Swift & Harry Crane
Alex Keeney and Doug Campbell unpack surging bond yields, Iran-driven inflation risk and why another Federal Reserve hike may still be underpriced. They also examine Trump’s increasingly bullish posture toward AI and the prediction markets forming around regulation, safety legislation and government involvement in the industry. Jim Swift joins to explain why Ohio’s Senate and governor races have become genuinely competitive, with candidate quality, tariffs and data-center politics reshaping the
#34
September 30 · 1 hr 25 min
Brazil 60/40, Trump's burn book & Signal vs. Noise | Ian Bezek
Eventual takes a victory lap on several House races before turning to Trump’s “burn book,” where Ken Paxton looks increasingly vulnerable while Pete Hegseth and Dario Amodei appear safer. Alex and Pratik also read the tea leaves on AOC, Nithya Raman and Trump’s AI summit for clues about 2028, Los Angeles politics and AI policy. Ian Bezek joins to argue that Brazil’s election market may be mispricing Lula, while flagging a potential opportunity in Argentina’s 2027 presidential race. The show clos
#33
September 30 · 1 hr 25 min
Heartland midterms, Rogue AI, & Taylor Swift | Tres Watson & Nimrod Kamer
Alex Keeney and Brian Golden survey a chaotic midterm landscape where candidate quality may be overpowering traditional partisan geography, before Kentucky political strategist Tres Watson breaks down whether Democrats really have a shot at flipping the Lexington-based 6th District and what an upset there could signal on election night. Journalist and trader Nimrod Kamer then hunts for long-shot value in Nebraska, Kansas and Israel’s elections, while the show also dives into Taylor Swift predict
#32
September 24 · 59 min
Susan Collins, Dem Hype, Brazil Election I Gustavo Ribeiro
Alex Keeney and Domer ask whether prediction markets have pushed too far toward Democrats heading into the midterms, searching for potential value in Republican races while digging into Susan Collins’ unusually volatile Maine Senate contest, Mary Peltola in Alaska, and the economic pressure from high gas prices and inflation; recent Maine polling remains mixed, including a new Siena survey showing Collins and Troy Jackson in a statistical dead heat. Gustavo Ribeiro of The Brazilian Report then j
#31
September 23 · 1 hr 52 min
Dems Surge, Oscars SZN, CFTC Moves | Katey Rich
Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule break down the sharp repricing of 2026 midterm markets, the Los Angeles mayoral race, and new regulatory scrutiny around prediction markets—including a CFTC advisory warning that certain “mention markets” can present heightened manipulation risks. Austin Federa then joins to explain how DoubleZero is building faster trading infrastructure for prediction markets and crypto, before The Ankler’s Katey Rich and Brian Golden dive into the Oscars race, Julianne Moore’s
#30
September 22 · 1 hr 32 min
A.I. Rebrand, Midterm Money & CFB Trades | Charles McElwee & Elf
Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down Trump’s new “superintelligence” framing for AI, prediction markets around AI regulation and U.S.–China coordination, and the increasingly expensive fight for control of Congress before RealClearPennsylvania’s Charles McElwee joins to examine the battleground House races featuring Scott Perry, Janelle Stelson, Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan, Paige Cognetti and Brian Fitzpatrick. Professional sports trader Elf then explains how he arbitrages sportsbooks and e
#29
September 17 · 1 hr 11 min
Blue Tsunami & Wall Street Meets Prediction Markets | Dan Rasmussen
Alex Keeney and Domer break down the fallout from the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate hike, what could come next for rates, the shifting 2026 midterm landscape, and whether the stalled CLARITY Act has another path through Congress, before William Keydjani joins to handicap Labour’s defense of Holborn and St Pancras against a growing Green Party challenge. Verdad Capital founder Dan Rasmussen then explains how Wall Street can use prediction markets as real-time forecasting tools, what trade
#28
September 16 · 1 hr 6 min
Kansas Senate, AI panic & Novig Backlash | David Hudnall
Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule react to the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023, examine what Kevin Warsh’s unanimous 25-basis-point move could mean for prediction markets and the midterms, and debate the growing backlash around Novig’s Sydney Sweeney campaign. Kansas City Star columnist David Hudnall then joins to explain why Roger Marshall’s Senate race against Adam Hamilton is attracting attention despite Kansas’ Republican history, before the show turns to Texas election markets an
#27
September 15 · 1 hr 58 min
AI reckoning, TX gets Bluer, CLARITY Act | Brad Johnson
Alex Keeney and Brian Golden unpack the latest New York Times/Siena polling and what it means for prediction markets around control of Congress, before Texas Bullpen co-founder Brad Johnson joins to discuss James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton, shifting politics in South Texas, data centers, and Texas’ coming battles over prediction markets. Griff Bohm of Juniper Ventures also breaks down Washington’s AI-regulation debate, frontier-model oversight and U.S.–China coordination, while the show previews th

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