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Eventual · Thursday · 40 min

PM Trader, Roger Marshall & midterms roulette

South Carolina may have moved too far toward Annie Andrews. With Andrews near 30 cents, Prediction Market Trader (PMT) argues the blue wave still has to end somewhere and sees Darlene Graham as the more attractive side at current prices. Mary Peltola’s ballot scandal looks more damaging than decisive. The story briefly pushed her price lower, but Alex and PMT view it as a hold rather than a reason to abandon her with so many Alaskans already having voted. Bad election-day weather could now hurt Republicans more than Democrats. Because Democrats have banked more early votes while Republicans may rely more heavily on election-day turnout, storms across several battleground states could reverse the traditional weather effect. Kansas at fifty-fifty may be the market’s biggest blue-wave overreaction. Roger Marshall is a deeply flawed candidate, but pricing a Democrat evenly in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator in generations may be pushing the trend too far. The best longshot edge may be in correlated election combos. PMT recommends building maps that account for relationships between races—such as a broad Democratic Senate sweep that excludes Maine, Kansas and Iowa—where market makers may misprice the correlations. Near-certain “bond” trades remain surprisingly cheap. PMT is heavily allocated to Democratic governors such as Javier Becerra, Kathy Hochul and Maura Healey around 95 cents, arguing that their enormous polling leads justify the modest return. Extended: Election Day is almost here — and the prediction markets are starting to get weird. Alex Keeney and Domer kick things off with Buy / Sell / Hold on three races that could scramble the final midterm map. A new NYT/Siena poll has Annie Andrews running neck-and-neck with Darline Graham in South Carolina. Andrews is still trading around 30%. Is that finally worth buying? In Alaska, Mary Peltola remains roughly a 70% favorite after reporting revealed a secret effort by Democratic operatives to crowd the ballot and peel votes away from Sen. Dan Sullivan. Does the controversy matter — or is it noise this late in the race? And then there’s the weather. Election Day storms could hit Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Texas and Ohio — exactly the states traders are watching most closely. Could bad weather become the final turnout variable nobody priced in? Plus: Trump cancels a late Kansas rally as Roger Marshall fights to survive. Then we spin Midterms Roulette with Prediction Market Trader ( https://x.com/PredMTrader ) : • Best trade to defy the Blue Wave • The candidate you’re betting on despite some deeply questionable vibes • The trade you’re embarrassed to admit you own • Iowa vs. Texas vs. Georgia for split-ticket voting • Favorite longshot • Biggest mistake of the cycle • The prediction you wish you could trade but can’t And finally: Never Have I Ever, KFM — Blue Texas, Blue South Carolina, Blue Kansas — and the biggest Democratic and Republican longshots still sitting in the portfolio. The polls say Blue Wave. The markets mostly agree. Now we find out where they’re wrong. Sponsored segment: Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us. Disclaimer: Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction. If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. For Polymarket US users: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

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show notes

South Carolina may have moved too far toward Annie Andrews. 
With Andrews near 30 cents, Prediction Market Trader (PMT) argues the blue wave still has to end somewhere and sees Darlene Graham as the more attractive side at current prices.

Mary Peltola’s ballot scandal looks more damaging than decisive. 
The story briefly pushed her price lower, but Alex and PMT view it as a hold rather than a reason to abandon her with so many Alaskans already having voted.

Bad election-day weather could now hurt Republicans more than Democrats. 
Because Democrats have banked more early votes while Republicans may rely more heavily on election-day turnout, storms across several battleground states could reverse the traditional weather effect.

Kansas at fifty-fifty may be the market’s biggest blue-wave overreaction. 
Roger Marshall is a deeply flawed candidate, but pricing a Democrat evenly in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator in generations may be pushing the trend too far.

The best longshot edge may be in correlated election combos. 
PMT recommends building maps that account for relationships between races—such as a broad Democratic Senate sweep that excludes Maine, Kansas and Iowa—where market makers may misprice the correlations.

Near-certain “bond” trades remain surprisingly cheap. 
PMT is heavily allocated to Democratic governors such as Javier Becerra, Kathy Hochul and Maura Healey around 95 cents, arguing that their enormous polling leads justify the modest return.

Extended:
Election Day is almost here — and the prediction markets are starting to get weird.

Alex Keeney and Domer kick things off with Buy / Sell / Hold on three races that could scramble the final midterm map. A new NYT/Siena poll has Annie Andrews running neck-and-neck with Darline Graham in South Carolina. Andrews is still trading around 30%. Is that finally worth buying?

In Alaska, Mary Peltola remains roughly a 70% favorite after reporting revealed a secret effort by Democratic operatives to crowd the ballot and peel votes away from Sen. Dan Sullivan. Does the controversy matter — or is it noise this late in the race?

And then there’s the weather.

Election Day storms could hit Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Texas and Ohio — exactly the states traders are watching most closely. Could bad weather become the final turnout variable nobody priced in?

Plus: Trump cancels a late Kansas rally as Roger Marshall fights to survive.

Then we spin Midterms Roulette with Prediction Market Trader ( https://x.com/PredMTrader ) :

• Best trade to defy the Blue Wave
• The candidate you’re betting on despite some deeply questionable vibes
• The trade you’re embarrassed to admit you own
• Iowa vs. Texas vs. Georgia for split-ticket voting
• Favorite longshot
• Biggest mistake of the cycle
• The prediction you wish you could trade but can’t

And finally: Never Have I Ever, KFM — Blue Texas, Blue South Carolina, Blue Kansas — and the biggest Democratic and Republican longshots still sitting in the portfolio.

The polls say Blue Wave. The markets mostly agree.

Now we find out where they’re wrong.

Sponsored segment: 
Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us.

Disclaimer:
Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction.

If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information.


 


 

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

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