Doomsday Clock
2026, Jan 27th 85 seconds to midnight
Closest to catastrophe since the Clock was created
World with high existential risks, intended to motivate action
Midnight is civilization-ending disaster, existential risks.
Panel of experts sets it once a year
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board
https://thebulletin.org/about-us/science-and-security-board/
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/timeline/
Origins
1947, scientists concerned about nuclear weapons after World War II
Many had worked on Manhattan.
Set at 7 minutes to midnight, to express urgency of nuclear danger.
Late October 1962
Purpose
To warn the public and policymakers, threat of human-made global catastrophe.
Forward and back 27 times
Best time, 1991, end of the Cold War.
2025, risk from technologies and international discord
2026, Jan 27th 85 seconds to midnight
Combination of Global Risks
Nuclear Weapons and Warfare
The original and still core risk
Expansion, modernization, and poor arms control, miscalculation, accident, sabotage, madness or conflict.
Interview with Alfred Werner, Liberal Judaism, no. 16 (April–May 1949), Einstein Archive 30-1104
https://wist.info/einstein-albert/25402/
“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
Conventional War
Limitations of one resource, water, food, land
Civil war
Mass murder and genocide
Climate Change
Severe climate disruption
Rising temperatures, extreme weather, and slow policy responses, cascading impacts.
Climate manipulation, stratospheric spraying
Disruptive Technologies
Artificial intelligence, misinformation, information warfare, cyber instability, or autonomous weapons.
“colossal opportunities and threats that are difficult to predict now.”
“the one who becomes the leader in this sphere will be the ruler of the world.”
“it would be strongly undesirable if someone wins a monopolist position”
“when one party’s drones are destroyed by drones of another, it will have no other choice but to surrender.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin (2017)
Undersea cable destruction
Deepfakes
Biological Threats & Biosecurity
Engineered pathogens, pandemics, gaps in biodefense systems are concerns in recent assessments.
James Bond level villains
Arrogant philanthropists
Reducing sperm counts
Chemical accidents and attacks
Geopolitical Tensions & Governance
Breakdown in international cooperation, rising nationalism, rising antinationalism, loss of the nation state, international ‘elites’
Maleficent international organisations.
Population reduction advocates
Financial manipulation
Mass migration
Control and Manipulation of Global Food Supply
Misinformation and scaremongering
Monoculture of plants and animals
Environmental sabotage and soil degradation
Economic land domination / imperialism
The clock can be pushed back
Reduce risk of nuclear war
Stop climate manipulation
Plant more trees, localise food production.
Egalitarian food production
Egalitarian access to therapeutics
Stronger oversight of gain-of-function and dual-use research
Clear international rules on biological research
Transparency instead of secrecy during outbreaks
Control high risk technologies
Keep humans in the loop
Science / evidence-based policymaking
Change most national and world leaders
Revelation 6, The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse
Conquest, War, Famine, and Death.
White Horse
Bow and a crown, he rode out as a conqueror bent on conquest.
Military conquest.
Pestilence.
Fiery red Horse
Rider was given power to take peace from the earth and to make people kill each other. To him was given a large sword.
Violent bloodshed.
Black Horse
Its rider was holding a pair of scales in his hand.
High food prices.
Food control and famine.
Pale Horse
It’s rider was named Death, and H
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