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Barclays Brief

Barclays Investment Bank

In a world of constant change, Barclays Brief is your weekly source for differentiated perspectives that cut through the noise.

Each bite-sized episode delivers clear insights into the structural trends transforming sectors – from technology and healthcare to energy, industrials and beyond.

Through sharp dialogue and scenario-based analysis, we help you navigate complexity, make meaningful connections and anticipate what’s next – whether you’re managing a portfolio or leading a business.

Each week we dig deep into a key market theme, spanning equities, macro, credit and more, uncovering the forces shaping tomorrow to help you make smarter decisions today.

Stay sharp. Stay briefed.

Published by Barclays Investment Bank: https://www.ib.barclays/

Important content disclosures: https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-content-disclosures.html
Important non-Research content disclosures: https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-nonresearch-content-disclosures.html

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#35
June 9 · 12 min
US equities: short-term pain, long-term gain?
US equities have delivered strong gains year-to-date, despite a challenging macro backdrop, but that momentum is beginning to look less secure. While fundamentals remain supportive, the near‑term setup is becoming more stretched. In this episode of Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Alex Altman, Head of Equity Tactical Strategies in our Markets division, to break down his shift to a short-term tactically cautious view. They discuss how the balance of risks has begun to shift, with elevated euphoria and crowded positioning — particularly in AI‑linked momentum trades — leaving markets more exposed if that positioning unwinds. At the same time, higher real yields are starting to weigh on valuations, making the forward return profile less compelling, despite resilient earnings and macro data. They also examine equity supply, with a growing pipeline of IPOs and broader issuance adding complexity to the near‑term outlook. Taken together, these dynamics point to a more fragile setup. Patrick and Alex explore how the market may evolve and what role a pullback could play in resetting the current environment. Clients can read more on Barclays Live: The Global Volatility Pulse: Macro stumble, technical reset Equity Market Review: Shaky momentum, nascent rotation U.S. Equity-Linked Strategies: AI Capex Funding: Why Equity? Why Converts? Listeners can also hear more episodes on this topic: The Fed's next move The cusp of a capex supercycle A bullish view on US equities Important Content Disclosures Important Non-Research Content Disclosures
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#34
June 2 · 8 min
The Fed’s next move
The path for US interest rates has shifted sharply in recent months, as markets move from pricing rate cuts to pricing a potential hike. In this episode, Ronnie Wexler sits down with Barclays’ Chief US Economist Marc Giannoni to look at what’s driving that shift. At the centre of the discussion is inflation. While headline inflation has been pushed higher by rising energy prices driven by the Iran war, the key question for new Fed chair Kevin Warsh is whether those pressures feed through into core inflation and ultimately shift longer-term expectations. That, Giannoni argues, is what could determine the Fed’s next move. The conversation also turns to the US consumer. Slowing real income growth, higher gasoline prices and a cooling labour market are starting to weigh on household spending, raising questions about how resilient demand can remain. Whilst these pressures could drive consumer spending down, the US consumer has surprised to the upside many times before according to Giannoni. So what should investors watch next? From inflation prints to consumer behaviour, listen to learn which signals could shape the Fed’s policy path in the months ahead. Clients can read more on Barclays Live: Waiting for the deal What would trigger a 2026 Fed hike? Consumers feeling the strain April consumer spending moderating amid faltering income Listeners can also hear more episodes on this topic: Inflation crosscurrents: Energy vs AI Decoding the bond sell-off Do high gas prices change how Americans buy cars? Important Content Disclosures Important Non-Research Content Disclosures
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#33
May 26 · 11 min
AI goes economy-wide
Productivity growth has been uneven across many sectors and economies. But AI in the form of humanoid robotics could change that, extending automation into physical services at scale. In this episode of Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Christian Keller, Head of Economics Research, to discuss what this shift could mean for productivity and the wider macro outlook. Keller explains that while a jobless future remains unlikely, the long‑running balance between labour and capital could continue to evolve as a broader range of tasks are automated. The conversation explores how combining cognitive and physical automation increases capital intensity and raises the importance of inputs such as electricity and commodities. They also consider how these forces could influence inflation dynamics and interest rates. As automation spreads into the physical economy, understanding where productivity gains may accrue – and what constrains them – becomes increasingly important. Listen now to hear the full discussion. Clients can read more on Barclays Live: •How humanoid robotics matters for macro •Ten things to know about humanoids •The decade of the robot belongs to China •Embodied AI: Wealth creation or economic displacement? Listeners can also hear more episodes about developments of physical AI: •Robots deliver dinner and profits •Rise of the humanoid robots •AI Revolution: China’s Five-Year Plan Important Content Disclosures
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#32
May 19 · 11 min
Decoding the bond sell-off
Global bond yields have been rising sharply, with long-term yields breaking higher across multiple markets - pushing US 30‑year yields above 5%. The sell-off was initially triggered by energy-linked inflation resulting from the Iran war, but increasingly reflects a broader, cross‑market re-pricing, with fiscal pressures, shifting rate expectations and signs of bear‑flattening emerging in key markets. In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Lucile Flight, Managing Director in Rates Trading, joins Patrick Coffey to examine what’s driving the move in different regions – from political uncertainty shaping UK gilts to changing views on neutral rates in the US and a dialled-back ECB response in Europe. They discuss what could bring yields down again and where investors are seeing the most compelling opportunities across global rates. Listeners can hear more on this topic: Inflation crosscurrents: Energy vs AI European rates: Inflation & AI waves collide Clients can read more on Barclays Live: Thinking Macro: No saving grace Federal Reserve Commentary: What would trigger a 2026 Fed hike? United Kingdom Outlook: What a week... Global Economics Weekly: Leaders meet and bonds shriek
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#31
May 12 · 12 min
Inflation crosscurrents: Energy vs AI
Markets are facing two competing inflation stories at the same time: a near‑term energy shock pushing inflation risks higher, and the possibility that AI acts as a medium to longer-run disinflationary force. In this episode of Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey, Global Head of the Product Management, sits down with Jon Hill, Head of US Inflation Strategy, to break down how energy price spikes feed into headline versus core inflation, what breakevens and real yields are signalling, and how central banks may respond to energy shocks they can’t control. They also discuss whether core inflation dynamics are drifting back toward a pre‑COVID structure, and how AI could shape the path ahead through productivity, wages and margins. Listeners can hear more on this topic: Jet fuel shortage: Holidays at risk? European rates: Inflation & AI waves collide Clients can read more on Barclays Live: The view from overseas A Claudy inflation outlook Important Content Disclosures
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#30
May 5 · 10 min
Jet fuel shortage: Holidays at risk?
Jet fuel shortages linked to the continuing Iran war are dominating headlines, raising questions about whether this poses a genuine risk to global travel or whether markets are getting ahead of the reality. As the airline industry moves toward the peak summer travel period, Patrick Coffey sits down with our Head of European Transport Equity Research, Andrew Lobbenberg, to dissect what’s happening in aviation fuel markets. They explore the known knowns and the known unknowns at this moment, including why Europe is more exposed than other regions, and who will likely bear the costs if constraints persist. The episode also examines the realistic scenarios for airlines and passengers, from short‑term disruption to longer-term implications. Listen now to cut through the headlines and understand what this period of uncertainty means for the aviation sector, its investors and its consumers. Clients can read more on Barclays Live: •European Transportation: Airline potential fuel shortages •European Airlines: Messy uncertain days - March quarter preview •European Integrated Energy: Assessing the diesel and kerosene shortage risk •European Lodging - War and Peace: Scenario Analysis on Conflict, Fuel Supply and Oil Prices Important Content Disclosures
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#29
April 28 · 8 min
Credit: the signals markets can’t ignore
Credit markets often process stress before other parts of the market are able to. During periods of volatility, the signals they send can help investors distinguish between shocks that are likely to prove temporary and those that risk becoming more systemic. In this episode of Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler, Head of Equities, sits down with Drew Mogavero, Global Head of Credit Products and CEO of Barclays Capital Inc., to explore why credit markets have remained relatively stable during recent periods of stress. They discuss how investment‑grade and higher quality high yield have continued to find support and what this demand reveals about market conditions. The conversation also looks at how credit signals can inform views across equities and rates, where stress tends to emerge first, and what today’s market dynamics reveal about the broader economic backdrop. Listeners can hear more on this topic: Processing uncertainty in real time Credit markets: What's ahead for 2026 Private credit: Hidden interconnectivity Clients can read more on Barclays Live: Not that quiet beneath the surface Woes of waiting Important Content Disclosures Important non-Research Content Disclosures
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#28
April 21 · 10 min
Robots deliver dinner and profits
Food delivery is changing fast, with last-mile autonomous hardware being developed and deployed at pace. In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Guillaume Galland to explore how robots and drones are beginning to reshape food delivery economics around the world. Drawing on ground‑level observations from cities including Los Angeles, Helsinki, Dublin and Dubai, Guillaume explains why autonomous delivery adoption differs by geography, and why some markets are already seeing meaningful penetration. The conversation breaks down the two core technologies now in play – aerial drones and ground‑based robots – and they discuss where each are best suited to excel. The discussion also covers the economics driving momentum in the sector – how autonomous delivery stacks up against human couriers from costs, speed and reliability, and if they offer an enhancement for consumers and restaurants alike. They also look past the exciting developments and look at the hurdles that remain, ranging from regulation and operational complexity. Crucially, this is not about replacing human riders altogether, as Guillaume explains. Physical AI is a structural lever that will sit alongside traditional delivery models, changing how the last mile works rather than removing people from it. Listen in to understand where autonomous food delivery is gaining traction, what’s holding it back, and why it matters for platforms, restaurants and investors watching the future of last‑mile logistics. Clients can read more on Barclays Live: Robot at the Door: Last-Mile Shift Listeners can also hear more episodes about developments of physical AI: Robotaxis: The future of mobility Rise of the humanoid robots AI Revolution: China’s Five-Year Plan Important Content Disclosures Important non-Research Content Disclosures
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#27
April 14 · 10 min
Prediction markets: A new market signal
Prediction markets are suddenly top of mind for a range of people. From elections and sporting events to pop culture and breaking news, probabilities are flashing across screens in real time. What started as a niche concept is increasingly being treated as a signal for how uncertainty gets processed and priced. In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler sits down with US Gaming Research Analyst, Brandt Montour, to explore why prediction markets have surged into the spotlight. They dig into how these platforms work, why the “wisdom of crowds” has captured attention across media and finance, and what’s driving the growth in activity and valuations. The conversation goes beyond the hype, tackling the growing regulatory pushback, the tension between state and federal oversight, and the key differences between prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks. They also examine who’s winning, who’s losing, and what the rapid shift in capital across the gaming landscape may be signaling for investors thinking about how to position as this market continues to evolve. Clients can read more on Barclays Live: Mounting Opposition, but No Quick Regulatory Endgame Predicting a Sports Launch - 72¢ Prediction markets for CPI? Important Content Disclosures Important non-Research Content Disclosures
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#26
April 7 · 12 min
The quantum computing moment
Quantum computing has long been viewed as a future technology. Now, it’s poised to overtake classical computing systems in specific useful tasks in the next 12-24 months. In this episode of Barclays Brief, Laia Marin joins Patrick Coffey to discuss why now may be the time for corporates and investors to engage with quantum computing. They break down the fundamentals, including the different modalities, and its potential to solve complex business problems, analysing unstructured data and developing complex optimisation solutions. Laia also explores the current limitations of quantum systems, the competing qubit modalities racing to scale, and how quantum computing is additive to classical computing infrastructure, potentially allowing companies to integrate quantum capabilities alongside existing systems, rather than replacing them. This episode offers an accessible overview of where quantum stands today – and how to start preparing for its impact. Listeners can hear more on this topic: •Episode 20: Software: In the AI storm Clients can read more on Barclays Live: •Quantum Computing: The race is on •Quantum Computing: Friend, not foe •Quantum Computing: Correcting the biggest investor myths around quantum Important Content Disclosures Important non-Research Content Disclosures
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#25
March 31 · 13 min
The cusp of a capex supercycle
In recent months, market narratives have been dominated by geopolitical shocks, energy volatility and higher interest rates. But step back, and a much bigger story is coming into focus. Advanced economies may be on the cusp of a new, historic investment cycle – one with the potential to rival the great build‑outs of the past, from 19th‑century railroads to the Apollo missions and the information‑technology boom of the 1990s. While much of the capex narrative has focused on AI and the race by hyperscalers to build faster, more efficient models, this is only one part of the picture. Energy systems, electrification, defence spending and economic resilience are all reinforcing the scale of capital deployment now underway. In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Christian Keller, Chief Economist at Barclays, to examine how 150 years of investment data show that long periods of under‑investment are often followed by powerful capex cycles and why after two decades of weakness, the latest numbers point to the early stages of one with historic potential. Listeners can hear more on this topic: •Episode 22: Processing uncertainty in real time •Episode 17: Metals & mining: meltdown or opportunity? •Episode 7: US dollar & the AI capex cycle Clients can read more on Barclays Live: •Supersize me: The coming investment cycle •Cracks, but not a crater (Q2 Global Outlook) •Defence Quarterly: a 10-year cycle still to come? Important Content Disclosures Important non-Research Content Disclosures
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Showing 21–31 of 31 episodes