Yet Another Value Podcast

Andrew Walker

Yet Another Value Podcast is a new podcast from Andrew Walker, the founder of yetanothervalueblog.com. We interview top investors and dive deep into stocks and companies they are currently working on and investing in. While nothing on this channel is investing advice and everyone should do their own diligence, our goal is to frequently feature edgy and actionable value and/or event driven ideas.

Please see our legal and disclaimer at: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

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Thursday · 25 min
Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Rates just screamed to 20 year highs and stocks have barely blinked. That looks to me like the mirror image of the mid-2010s, when Treasuries yielded 2%, the math said stocks should trade for 25x, and they sat in the mid-teens instead because the equity risk premium quietly widened from 4% to 6%. If the premium can widen when rates fall, why would it not widen again when rates rise? That is the double whammy running in reverse: earnings that got a decade of help from the Trump tax cuts and the AI boom, multiplied by a multiple heading the wrong way. The other thing I cannot stop chewing on is what higher rates do to the AI data center buildout. These are 15 year leases where the NPV of the payments roughly covers the build cost, which means the developer is really underwriting the terminal value 15 to 25 years out. Move rates from 4% to 5% and you have to jack the lease rate up 5% to 10% just to stand still, and you discount that terminal value harder, right as the tenant credit gets scarier. If the AI trade cracks, you get hit twice: your tenant may not be around, and the release in year 15 goes from a $100m NOI lease to whatever the next best bidder pays. I do not think we are there yet, but finance 101 says investment gets crowded out eventually. Then two management questions. UWMC and Cogent both ran capital allocation that looked designed for the CEO's personal balance sheet rather than for shareholders, and I want a way to spot that before the blowup rather than after. And a friend's text about a CEO everyone was calling the next Mark Leonard got me wondering how you would ever know, because a real compounder and one great bet with hidden leverage look identical for the first ten years. I wrote the rates piece up this morning: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/rates-are-screaming-and-stocks-arent The UWMC post: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/uwmc-lost-600m-hedging-a-deal-theyd The Cogent episode with Aaron Chan: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/recurve-capitals-aaron-chan-on-cogent This episode is sponsored by Trata: https://trata.com. Trata is two buy siders talking to each other about a name they both follow closely. Trata records it, anonymizes it, and publishes it. It is the fastest way I know to get up to speed on something new. Chapters: (00:00) What is on my mind this month (01:07) Sponsor: Trata (01:41) Rates screamed higher and stocks did not listen (04:39) Should the equity risk premium rise with rates? (06:29) Rising rates meet the AI data center buildout (09:33) What a 15 year data center lease is really betting on (13:03) Does higher for longer start crowding out AI capex? (14:11) UWMC, Cogent, and CEOs who run capital allocation for themselves (18:45) How would you know if someone is the next Mark Leonard? (23:01) One great bet, or actual genius? (24:37) Wrapping up Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
Tuesday · 29 min
How to win a stock pitch competition | lessons from an Ira Sohn winner
School is starting, which means a dozen college and MBA teams are about to email me asking how to win their stock pitch competition. So I made the answer. The core of it: a pitch is a game, and most people lose it before they open their mouth by picking an idea that does not fit the contest rules or the judges in the room. From there it is three things. Design the pitch for the timeframe the contest actually asks for and for the people judging it, because what wins with a concentrated-book judge is not what wins with a pod shop. Lead with the one thing only you know, not a sell side price target or a multiple that has compressed. And make your bull case the base case instead of hedging yourself into a 15% price target that reads as average. Then the three traps I see every single year: burning five slides on a DCF nobody will ask about, drowning the room in risk factors, and death by background. I also walk through the La Quinta pitch that won me Ira Sohn in 2018, and why the CSL and DoorDash teams at the Pershing Square Challenge won on legwork rather than modeling. Fair warning: I had AI build the slides, so do not hold the exact wording on any of them against me. If you are pitching to get hired rather than to win a contest, the companion episode is here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/how-to-get-a-job-in-investing-podcast This episode is sponsored by Trata: https://trata.com. Trata is two buysiders swapping thoughts on a stock they are both involved in. If you are prepping a pitch, go on and say you are thinking about pitching company XYZ, and they will find you someone to talk to about it. It is a very good way to hear the other side of your idea before a judge hands it to you. Chapters: (00:00) Why I made this one alone, with a deck (01:57) Disclaimer and a word from Trata (03:02) Why this matters even if you never enter a contest (05:20) Who am I to talk about stock pitches (07:18) Why a pitch is a free lottery ticket (08:51) Rule one: know the game you are playing (10:12) Know your judges: concentrated books, event funds, pod shops (12:19) Rule two: tell a story, and lead with something only you know (14:14) The La Quinta pitch that won Ira Sohn (16:07) Be bold: make your bull case the base case (18:04) Do the legwork: hard hats, expert calls, customer checks (21:43) What to avoid: excessive modeling (23:17) What to avoid: drowning in risks (25:08) What to avoid: death by background (26:22) Formatting is table stakes (27:48) Go win the thing Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
August 20 · 49 min
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al ($ELAL), Israel's flag carrier, has spent three years as close to a monopoly on flying in and out of Ben Gurion as an airline ever gets. Turkish and Pegasus left and aren't coming back, Ryanair lost its Terminal 1 slots, Delta and United keep pushing their return, and El Al has used the windfall to go from a levered balance sheet to net cash, buy nine planes off lease, and start returning capital. It trades at about 2x EBITDA. Adam Buckstein of ASB Partners (back after his Stride episode) thinks you're buying a hard-asset-backed airline (roughly $1.3B net cash, $1B+ of owned planes, a $700M-ish loyalty program valuation) for less than the parts, with two more quarters of gushing profits still to come. My pushbacks: every "delevered on wartime profits" story I can remember (steel, energy after 2022) didn't work as a stock; a chunk of the cash is customer float that vanishes if flights get canceled; the $40M competition-authority fine for wartime pricing plus the state's right to make them fly uneconomically looks like the worst of both worlds; and El Al flies 24/6 (no Sabbath, no holidays), so should you haircut the EBITDA, or does that create a moat nobody else can copy? We close with a Stride ($LRN) update: the abrupt CEO exit, the Canvas LMS disaster, the lost Texas school, why fall enrollments are the fulcrum, and whether AI is a real threat to virtual public schools. Adam's El Al write-up: https://adambuckstein.substack.com/p/el-al-israel-airlines-ltd-elal-write This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai: https://fiscal.ai/yav. Fiscal.ai is the modern financial data provider for global equities, and it's what I actually use: their fund-letter database is wired into their API, so the first thing my AI does when I prep a podcast is pull every recent letter on the name, and every line in the models it builds links back to the source filing. Use fiscal.ai/yav for 15% off their AI connector. Chapters: (00:00) Intro and Fiscal.ai sponsor read (02:33) Adam Buckstein / ASB Partners joins (03:38) What is El Al: flag carrier, October 7, a monopoly on Ben Gurion (05:52) What the market is missing: underfollowed, delevered, Turkish and Ryanair gone (09:36) My pushback: delevering on wartime profits, and the customer-float problem (11:48) The balance sheet: $2B liquidity, air traffic liability, 2023 as the clean year (14:22) Valuation: net cash, owned planes, loyalty program vs a $2B EV (16:49) Slots: the New York City analogy for Tel Aviv (19:28) State of Israel risk: golden share, the $40M pricing fine, mandated security (24:23) The right comps: Wizz, Jet2, United at 6x vs El Al at 2x (26:12) Flying 24/6: should you haircut EBITDA, or is it a moat? (30:38) Stride ($LRN) update: the CEO exit and the prelim guide (34:01) Fall enrollments as the fulcrum, Canvas LMS, the lost Texas school (37:47) Pearson's read-through and in-year enrollment (40:16) The new CEO's contract and expert-call feedback on the old one (41:32) AI risk to virtual public schools, Alpha School (46:02) Long school choice; would Stride get taken private? (49:29) Disclaimer Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer
August 17 · 52 min
$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital
Nubank ($NU) has 140 million customers, roughly 60% of Brazil's adult population, an efficiency ratio around 20% versus 40-60% at the legacy banks, and ROEs in the 30s. Evan Vanderveer of Vanshap Capital has owned it for four years and thinks the market is still treating it like a risky EM bank instead of what he thinks it is: a tech company that happens to hold deposits, with a founder (David Vélez) who controls it and a runway that runs through Brazil's $100 billion banking profit pool, Mexico, Colombia, and eventually the US. My pushback is the Capital One question. Capital One was the smartest data-science lender in the room, IPO'd in 1994, went up 13x in 12 years, and then spent the next 20 as a mature bank that lagged the market. Nubank was built by ex-Capital One people, so is this 1994 or 2006? We also get into what the right cost of equity is for a Brazilian bank trading at high-teens earnings with a 30% ROE, whether MELI and Kaspi tell you EM fintech never gets a big multiple, the 13,000-customers-per-employee stat, Brazil NPLs at 15-year highs, the wave of senior departures, whether any banking fintech has ever expanded across borders, Vélez joining OpenAI's board, and my bigger worry that AI eventually commoditizes every financial product and competes away the 30% ROE. This episode is sponsored by Trata: https://trata.com/nu. Trata is two sharp buy-siders hopping on an anonymized call to talk through the risks and upside of a stock, and it's the closest thing to this podcast in written form. Go to trata.com/nu for a free Trata transcript on Nubank that I read and used heavily prepping for this call. Chapters: (00:00) Intro and Trata sponsor read (01:55) Evan Vanderveer / Vanshap Capital joins (02:50) What is Nubank: 140M customers, 60% of Brazil, 20% efficiency ratio (06:11) What the market is missing: deepening relationships, Mexico's ARPAC (08:05) The Capital One DNA: QED, Nigel Morris, data science (10:38) My pushback: is this Capital One in 2006, not 1994? (13:00) Brazil's $100B profit pool, payroll loans, David Vélez's control (15:09) Valuation: 30% ROE, high-teens P/E, and the right cost of equity for a Brazilian bank (18:47) MELI and Kaspi: does EM fintech ever earn alpha? (21:59) Fintech or bank? SoFi 2021, lending competition, too big to fail (23:55) 13,000 customers per employee vs 1,300 at legacy banks (26:15) Brazil risks: NPLs at 15-year highs, the Selic, October's election (27:45) How much of the value is Brazil vs Mexico, Colombia, and the US (29:42) Can a banking fintech expand across borders? The Citibank precedent (31:03) Senior departures, the new CFO from Visa, capping US investment (33:47) Buybacks in the low $12s and the risk of losing local expertise (36:32) Valuation bet, business bet, or jockey bet? (38:52) David Vélez joining OpenAI's board (40:46) AI inside Nubank: 60% of inquiries, Devin agents, faster credit models (42:44) Does AI commoditize banking and compete away the 30% ROE? (46:54) The US expansion: God kings or a real niche? (50:35) Closing thoughts (52:07) Disclaimer Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
August 14 · 47 min
$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
DNOW spun out of National Oilwell Varco at $35 in late 2014. A year later it was $13. Today it is around $16. Steve Gorelik's argument is that ten years of that chart is one long headwind rather than a broken business: 1,800 US rigs at the spin, under 600 now, global oil and gas investment 40% below 2014 in real dollars, and DNOW still grew margins and bought companies at 4 to 5x EBITDA the whole way through. Rigs have started ticking back up. The MRC Global merger brings $75m of synergies to two businesses that earned $325m of EBITDA apart in 2024. Management has soft-targeted $350m of EBITDA for 2027 against roughly a $3.5B enterprise value, which Steve gets to about $300m of free cash flow on a $3B market cap. My pushback is that 10x is not deep value, and the double comes almost entirely from multiple expansion back to the 5 to 6% free cash flow yield the market used to pay. Why is 10x the wrong number and not 12 or 14? We also get into the acquisitive compounder paradox, whether the incremental drilling actually shows up in US shale or somewhere else, the Oracle implementation they inherited from MRC and why they are now running it alongside SAP on purpose, the $50m of stock they bought back in the middle of that mess, and whether a business private equity would happily lever to four or six turns belongs in the public market at all. Steve's 2029 case is $30 to $32 per share. This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai: https://fiscal.ai/yav. I am a customer and I pay for their API with my own money. Two things I use it for constantly. First, they have a huge database of fund letters wired into the API, so when I am prepping a podcast or looking at an event my agent pulls every recent letter on the name and tells me what the bull and bear cases actually are. Second, financials with sourcing attached: I ask for a model and every line links back to the company specific KPI, segment, or ratio it came from, so I can click through and see exactly where the number is from. Use my link, fiscal.ai/yav, for 15% off their AI connector. Chapters: (00:00) Nobody gets excited about a distributor (03:48) What DNOW actually sells (05:29) The roll-up playbook, without the leverage (07:13) Why the 2014 spin never worked (12:47) My pushback: does the drilling come back in the US? (14:23) Shale payback periods and rigs getting less efficient (16:50) The MRC Global deal (18:04) Upstream plus downstream: what the combination buys you (21:24) The ERP implementation they inherited (24:39) Why 2027 guidance sits below what the two did apart (28:16) Free cash flow yield as the North Star (32:40) Buying growth at 4 to 5x while trading at 8 or 9 (34:42) Paying down debt and buying back stock at the same time (35:38) $50m of buybacks in the middle of the mess (37:15) Running SAP and Oracle side by side on purpose (39:49) 1,907 rigs at the spin, 571 today (40:40) The 2029 case: $30 to $32 per share (41:01) Should this company even be public? (42:56) Would private equity lever it up? (43:31) Water, utilities and data centers (45:21) Why boring distributors compound Steve Gorelik / Firebird Management: https://fbird.com Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
August 7 · 1 hr 1 min
$HIMS: Paul Cerro wouldn't trust the CEO to walk his dog. He's still long. Why? | Cedar Grove
Paul Cerro was long Hims & Hers in 2024, short it through the compounded GLP-1 unwind, and covered when the stock broke $14 after Q1. He's long again, and his thesis has almost nothing to do with peptides, testosterone, or the international launches everyone else is excited about. Those, he says, are table stakes. Hims has never had a problem acquiring customers. It has a problem keeping them, and subscriber counts have barely moved in three quarters. His argument is that labs and patient data are what push retention and LTV up, and that is the part the market isn't paying for. I push back in three places. The data play doesn't look unique to me: Whoop and Oura own a wearable and a daily interaction, Hims owns commoditized blood work, and if Hims does unlock it, Apple or Amazon can walk in on top of them. The 2030 targets ask you to double trust management, once on 4x-ing EBITDA and again on a very heavily adjusted EBITDA number, from a CEO Paul says he wouldn't trust to walk his dog. And when peptides go legal, I think a hundred Instagram churn-and-burn startups compete away the customer acquisition edge. Paul's answers are worth the hour, especially the balance-sheet argument for a price war and the Ro story. We close on what to watch in the August 10 print. Paul's Hims & Hers write-up: https://www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/hims-whoever-controls-the-data-controls-the-industry This episode is sponsored by Trata: https://trata.com/hims. Trata is two investors who hop on and talk about a stock they're both in, sometimes one long and one short, sometimes both on the same side, but always about what actually drives the stock up or down. Trata now has an MCP, so you can point your AI agent at a company and pull the transcript, which is one of the first things I do when I start looking at a name. They have four HIMS calls, all less than a year old and one about a month old, and if you follow the link you can get their most recent HIMS coverage as a free trial. Chapters: (00:00) Long it, shorted it, now long again (02:57) Paul on the setup right now (04:17) What he learned building Ro (05:19) How cash-pay healthcare actually works (11:54) The original 2024 Hims thesis (13:26) The compounding loophole and its expiration date (15:58) Covering the short and going long again (18:54) Acquisition was never the problem, retention is (20:35) Why the money in healthcare is chasing data (22:33) My pushback: what is unique about Hims' data? (26:32) Hims versus Whoop, Oura and the Apple Watch (29:21) Valuation: 30x 2026 EBITDA, 6x 2030 (32:56) Why international makes the targets conservative (34:12) Double trusting a heavily adjusted number (36:16) Icarus, Napoleon and the Teflon Don (40:05) On putting too much faith in regulators (43:49) Peptides and the market nobody has priced (45:36) Chinese peptides and what is in the vial (50:12) Can a hundred Instagram startups undercut Hims? (54:40) Why the balance sheet decides a price war (56:13) What to watch in the August 10 print (57:40) CVS, Walgreens, Walmart and Amazon (1:00:49) Closing thoughts Paul Cerro / Cedar Grove: https://www.cedargroveresearch.com Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
August 4 · 22 min
August 2026 Random Ramblings
Strategy filed an 8K this morning: they sold $300 million of stock, sold $100 million of bitcoin, and put the proceeds into buying back roughly $80 million of their own preferred at a discount. So you have a company trading over NAV, diluting shareholders, and selling the one asset it exists to hold, and it is still trading at a premium. Management is presenting the move from "one-way capital issuer" to "multi-way capital issuer" like it is a financial engineering breakthrough. It is just normal capital allocation, and it took them five years to get there. That is the through line for this whole ramble: selling. Strategy made a genuinely good call in 2020 and then never sold a thing. Situational Awareness made a generational call, long AI winners and short AI losers, went up something like 10x on it, never rebalanced, kept pressing a trade that naturally degrosses, and blew up when software went from 20 back to 30 and semis went from 400 back to 370. I do a miniature version of the same thing every time I decide in advance that I will start trimming at 15 a stock I bought at 10, and I am not sure that plan is as smart as it feels. I also get into why thematic trades are so hard to sell when there is no price to anchor to, whether the crossover funds actually had an AI information edge or just conviction, why I cannot make the memory valuations work under any assumption I am willing to make, and where I think the real opportunity is: the beaten-up AI power names Situational owned in size, several of which are not trading far above the DCF of the contracts they already have. Situational Awareness, crossover funds, and the AI edge: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/crossover-funds-ai-edge-situational-awareness This episode is sponsored by Trata: https://www.trata.com/glxy. Trata is two buysiders hopping on a call and talking through a stock they are actually working on, which is the fastest way I know to get up to speed on a name. They also have an MCP now that connects to Claude and ChatGPT, so the first thing I do on a new name is run the Trata search and see what buysiders are really saying. That link is a preview of the Galaxy call I mention on the episode. Chapters: (00:00) Cold open: three things on my mind (02:11) Sponsor: Trata (03:55) Why I am recording a bonus ramble (04:49) Strategy's new 8K: sell stock, sell bitcoin, buy back the preferred (06:05) "Multi-way capital issuer" is just normal capital allocation (06:58) A great call in 2020, and then they never sold (08:21) Investors are good at buying and bad at selling (09:37) Is my own sell plan its own trap? (11:37) The Situational Awareness blowup (13:19) The trouble with thematics: there is no price (14:44) Micro versus macro, and the software buy signal I missed (16:22) Do the crossover funds have an AI information edge? (18:41) Why I cannot get to the memory valuations (19:04) The opportunity in the beaten-up AI power names (22:05) Wrapping up Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/ Disclosures: I am short $MSTR and long $GLXY. Nothing on this podcast is investment advice. Please do your own work.
August 2 · 49 min
Management interviews: the most underdeveloped skill in investing | Ross O'Toole
Management interviews might be the most underdeveloped skill in fundamental investing. Ross O'Toole has been investing for 25 years and read over 500 investment books, and he couldn't find a single one on how to actually conduct an investor-management interview.... so he wrote Breaking the Script, a field guide to getting management teams off their rehearsed talking points. We get into why "what" questions beat "why" questions, whether you should grade a plastic surgery CEO and a coal company CEO on the same curve, the case for recording your management meetings, and why asking for examples is one of the biggest double edged swords in investing. I push back with my standing worry: management teams are really, really good salesmen, and I always walk out of these meetings wondering if I'm the patsy at the poker table. Ross's answers (build a longitudinal baseline over repeat interviews, ask for the negative example every time you get a positive one, and save the hard questions for the crescendo) are why this book went straight to the top of my "hand it to an intern" list. Grab Ross's book, Breaking the Script: https://amzn.to/4fLg8RO This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai: https://fiscal.ai/yav. Fiscal.ai is a modern financial data platform for global equities. In addition to their web-based terminal, they offer API access to real-time fundamental data: 20+ years of financial statements, ratios, segments, and KPIs, with data updating within minutes of earnings reports, not days. I'm not just an advertiser; I signed up with my own money to plug their API into the AI tools I've been building. Use my link, fiscal.ai/yav, for 15% off. Chapters: (00:00:00) Introduction (00:02:00) Why management interviews are a double edged sword (00:03:47) Why Ross wrote Breaking the Script (00:07:15) Are we deluding ourselves? Testing management credibility (00:11:53) Should you grade CEOs on a curve across industries? (00:14:44) "What" vs "why": framing contentious questions (00:18:27) Are interviews actually an alpha source? (00:19:39) Where management matters most: deep value vs tech (00:22:32) Would interviewing 2008 Zuckerberg have helped? (00:25:14) Preparation and repeat interviews (00:29:20) Should you record management meetings? (00:31:54) Asking for examples: conviction builder or sales pitch? (00:34:00) Always ask for the negative example (00:36:00) Making management grade their own execution (00:38:20) Interviewing companies under activist pressure (00:41:30) Buffett's silver bullet question, reframed (00:46:02) Question order: crescendo to the hard stuff (00:48:29) Closing thoughts Ross O'Toole / Breaking the Script: https://amzn.to/4fLg8RO Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
July 27 · 27 min
July 2026 Random Ramblings
Investing is a game of arrogance. The base rate when you buy any stock is that it just does the market return, so every position you hold is a bet that you know something the market doesn't. My July ramble is really one question asked five ways: when do you look in the mirror and admit you were wrong? I walk through my three-year rule on a single name (if it has gone nowhere for three years, the problem is probably you, not the market), and the harder version, a value fund that has underperformed for a decade. I use myself as the example. I saw AI inflecting in late 2024 and didn't pull the trigger, because I'm a value and event guy and I didn't see the bet, and a lot of those names then went on a generational run. Was that discipline or a mental block? From there I get into why you're effectively short Nvidia if you don't own it and you're benchmarked to the S&P, the Fundsmith letter walking back its principles as the cautionary tale on both sides, my own April 2025 book (the net-cash biotech and the Nebius trade I sold way too early), and why London increasingly trades like an emerging market: a takeover wave, private value miles above public value, and the frustration of owning cheap names that only move if someone buys the whole company. This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai: https://fiscal.ai/yav. Fiscal.ai is a modern financial data provider for global equities, with 20+ years of statements, ratios, filings, segments and KPIs, a web-based terminal, and a self-serve API that plugs real-time fundamental data straight into Claude and ChatGPT. Use fiscal.ai/yav for 15% off. Chapters: (0:00) Intro and episode preview (2:50) Sponsor: fiscal.ai (4:16) Investing is a game of arrogance: beating the base rate (6:18) The three-year rule, and when a whole strategy has underperformed (9:19) Missing the AI trade: discipline, mental block, and the Fundsmith letter (14:42) If you don't own Nvidia, you're short it (16:46) My April 2025 book: Nebius, net-cash biotech, and selling winners too early (21:47) Why London trades like an emerging market: takeouts and dead stocks (27:08) Wrap Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
July 24 · 53 min
$LNW: a slot machine oligopoly at half Aristocrat's multiple | Zack Buckley
Light & Wonder ($LNW) is one of three companies in the slot machine oligopoly, with 70%+ recurring revenue, and it trades at 7-8x EBITDA while Aristocrat, its closest peer and arguably its slower-growing twin, trades at roughly double that. Zach Buckley thinks the market is wrong on almost every count: the stock has traded like a SaaS chart on AI fears even though slot content has almost no AI exposure, the Street doesn't believe 2028 targets from a management team that already hit the last three-year guide it set, and the soft first half is a game-launch timing story (Aristocrat launched in H1, Light & Wonder's slate lands in H2), not share loss. Zach has sized this the largest he's ever sized anything, and you can hear it. I push back where I can: whether Caesars could ever build its own boxes (Zach: Marriott doesn't build elevators), why management is paying down debt to appease Australian shareholders instead of murdering the share count at these prices, what the Dragon Train settlement really cost them, and SciPlay's genuine AI risk. We also cover the move to a sole Australian listing, the Grover charitable-gaming acquisition at ~7.5x EBITDA, and what would actually break the thesis. This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense: https://alpha-sense.com/yavp. Most AI tools are very good at sounding right, but can you trace the answer back to the filing, the transcript, the exact passage that drove it? AlphaSense's AI platform is built for exactly that: over 500 million curated documents, from broker research and expert transcripts to filings and earnings calls, with every answer linked back to an exact, verifiable source. See it for yourself with a free trial at https://alpha-sense.com/yavp. Chapters: (00:00:05) Introducing Light & Wonder (00:03:09) Light & Wonder's transformation (00:05:57) Australian listing creates opportunity (00:08:36) Recurring revenue business model (00:09:39) Why game quality matters (00:11:45) Business quality meets valuation (00:13:31) Explaining Aristocrat's valuation premium (00:17:15) AI offers productivity upside (00:19:08) SciPlay faces greater AI risk (00:21:20) Barriers protect game development (00:23:56) Casinos avoid vertical integration (00:29:05) Why Australia made sense (00:30:25) Dragon Train litigation explained (00:32:14) Assessing lingering litigation impact (00:34:11) Why investors doubt targets (00:36:04) Short-termism drives investor skepticism (00:39:41) Balancing buybacks and deleveraging (00:42:39) Grover acquisition adds growth (00:43:55) Electronic pull tabs explained (00:47:14) What could break thesis (00:50:41) AI fears create opportunities (00:52:32) Zach summarizes investment thesis Zach Buckley / Buckley Capital Partners: https://www.buckleycapitalpartners.com/ Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
July 20 · 1 hr
$PRKS: SeaWorld, an 8% cash yield, and a possible 80% short squeeze | Hawkins Entrekin
United Parks ($PRKS) owns SeaWorld and Busch Gardens, trades around 8x EBITDA with an 8%+ unlevered cash yield, and is plowing basically 100% of free cash flow into buybacks while Hill Path sits on roughly 60% of the stock. Adjust for passive holders and effective short interest lands somewhere near 80% of float; Bloomberg's short squeeze score is 93 out of 100. Hawkins Entrekin (Valyte, and the guy who pitched Vornado on this podcast right at the bottom of New York real estate) thinks you're buying irreplaceable hard assets below replacement cost, with a squeeze as the cherry on top. His fair value: low $80s against a stock in the high $40s. It's catnip to me, which is exactly why I push back. EBITDA fell from roughly $700 million to $600 million in an inflationary environment; is that Epic Universe's one-time supply hit, or a sign SeaWorld is the industry's swing capacity? Management has blamed weather in 15 of the last 16 quarters (I counted). And when a 60% owner is pushing every dollar into buybacks while attendance sits 20% below the 2008 peak, you have to ask whether this is being run for long-term operations or just for the spreadsheet. Hawkins' United Parks write-up: https://valyteresearch.substack.com/p/united-parks-and-resorts The Trata call I used to prep: https://www.trata.com/prks This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense: https://alpha-sense.com/yavp. Most AI tools are very good at sounding right, but can you trace the answer back to the filing, the transcript, the exact passage that drove it? AlphaSense is the AI platform built for that: over 500 million curated documents, from broker research and expert transcripts to filings and earnings calls, with every answer linked back to an exact, verifiable source. Try a free trial at https://alpha-sense.com/yavp. Chapters: (00:00) Intro: everything I love in a stock, and why that scares me (01:34) AlphaSense (sponsor) (02:49) Welcome back Hawkins Entrekin (03:41) What is United Parks? (04:44) The short squeeze setup: ~80% of effective float (05:50) A real estate lens on theme parks (08:36) What are the shorts seeing? (10:32) EBITDA went from $700M to $600M; why? (12:01) Epic Universe and the new-supply explanation (17:27) Weather excuses: 15 of the last 16 quarters (19:44) Capex and the asset-stripping check (24:08) The real estate angles (and OpCo/PropCo cold water) (28:19) What's the excess land worth? (30:34) Can you comp a theme park on NOI? (32:13) Valuation: low-$80s fair value vs a high-$40s stock (34:33) Why 8x when Blackstone paid 12-14x? Plus replacement cost (40:45) Hill Path at 60%: squeeze, take-private, or sale? (46:05) Attendance is down 20% from the 2008 peak (48:47) The bulls have been early for three years (56:58) What is Valyte? (58:28) Seritage, Elme, and a hard stop Hawkins Entrekin / Valyte: https://www.valytedata.com/ Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
July 14 · 58 min
$CBZ: stop the buybacks and restart the M&A flywheel? | Reference Equity
Ryan Bunn (Reference Equity) has a public proposal for CBIZ ($CBZ): stop buying back stock at 9x earnings and restart the M&A flywheel that compounded revenue at 13%/year and took EBIT margins from 9% to 14% over the last decade. For someone like me who has always been a sucker for share buybacks, "stop the buybacks and issue equity" lands like a knife right in the gut, so I make him defend every piece of it. We get into whether the $2.3B Marcum deal (the largest accounting acquisition ever, with the stock down ~70% since) deserves a mulligan, whether the multiple got crushed by 3.4x leverage or by AI headline fear, whether AI lets the Big Four come downmarket and eat CBIZ's middle-market lunch (or lets superstar producers hang their own flag), and whether long-term investors would really put primary equity onto the balance sheet at no discount. Ryan's math: the market prices credit risk, small 6-9x EBITDA bolt-ons restart the compounding machine, and a delevered, re-rated CBIZ has 100%+ upside. Ryan's Restarting the Flywheel site (proposal + deck): https://cbizflywheel.com/ This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Most AI tools are very good at sounding right; the summary is clean, but can you trace it back to the filing, the transcript, the exact passage that drove the answer? AlphaSense owns the content (over 500 million curated documents, from broker research and expert transcripts to filings and earnings calls) and the retrieval layer on top of it, so every answer links back to an exact, verifiable source. Try a free trial at https://alpha-sense.com/yavp Chapters: (0:00) Intro: an activist pitch to STOP the buybacks (1:15) AlphaSense (2:31) What is CBIZ ($CBZ)? (5:01) Ryan's proposal: restart the M&A flywheel (7:44) Buybacks at 9x earnings vs. getting back to M&A (10:38) Post-Marcum, are there even deals left to do? (12:52) The AI risk: offshoring and the Big Four coming downmarket (19:24) Does AI let superstar accountants hang their own flag? (23:41) The Marcum deal: mulligan or strategic masterstroke? (28:59) Private equity competition and winner's curse (31:38) Valuation: 9x free cash flow at 3.4x leverage (40:00) Does delevering actually re-rate the stock? (45:47) Management, the board, and alignment (49:58) Why issue equity now? The FMC example (56:57) Ryan's real ask: end the muddled capital allocation (57:38) Wrap Ryan Bunn / Reference Equity: https://cbizflywheel.com/ Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
July 7 · 59 min
Adam Wyden: buying someone else's pain in Stagwell $STGW and Driven Brands $DRVN | ADW Capital
Adam Wyden runs one of the most concentrated books I know, and he came on to make the case for two stocks the market has basically left for dead: Stagwell ($STGW) and Driven Brands ($DRVN). On Stagwell, his pitch is that this is not a dying ad agency but a marketing-services and data business compounding toward $700M of EBITDA by 2028, sitting at a 20%+ free cash flow yield because it came public through a no-fanfare reverse merger and carried a dual-class and TRA overhang that kept institutions out. On Driven, he thinks the sum of the parts (Collision, Autoglass, and a 50-year-old franchise stub around Take Five) is worth far more than a low-teens stock, and he has been loud enough about it that the company started disclosing numbers within 48 hours of one of his letters. I push back on both. On Stagwell I keep coming back to the agency model itself: WPP, IPG and the rest have trailed the S&P for 20 years because the human capital walks out the door every night and takes the economics with it, and AI arguably makes that worse. On Driven I press him on why a business this cheap has stayed cheap for four years running, and whether the corporate cost and the leverage ever get fixed without a private-equity owner. Adam's answer, more or less: the market doesn't care until it cares, and the best money he has ever made is buying someone else's five-year pain right before the aha moment. This episode is sponsored by fiscal.ai: https://fiscal.ai/yav. Fiscal.ai is a modern financial data provider for global equities and one of the leading data connectors for Claude and ChatGPT, so you can pipe real-time fundamental data straight into your LLM. I signed up with my own money to plug it into my Claude cowork setup: more than 20 years of statements, ratios, segments and KPIs, updated within minutes of earnings, not days. Use my link fiscal.ai/yav for 15% off. Chapters: (00:00) Intro: Adam Wyden and two names, Stagwell and Driven (02:44) Stagwell $STGW: the bull case on a marketing-services roll-up (05:00) Mark Penn and how modern Stagwell came together (08:40) Does AI break the ad agency model? (12:50) The data moat and Stagwell's agentic operating system (19:00) Is Stagwell a jockey bet on Mark Penn? (24:20) Free cash flow, buybacks, and a stock priced to die (28:20) Undervalued for four years: what is the market missing? (32:15) Adam's activist stake and the August 14th tease (37:00) Driven Brands $DRVN: the auto aftermarket bull case (41:30) EVs vs ICE and why the aftermarket keeps compounding (45:20) Sum-of-the-parts: Collision, Autoglass, and the franchise stub (51:30) Activism at Driven, Roark, and where this business belongs (58:30) Closing: the AI losers that become AI winners Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
July 1 · 1 hr 2 min
$VEON: a busted EM telecom hiding a 4x? | Samit Umatiya, UIG Funds
$VEON trades like a busted emerging-markets telecom, but it owns 84% of Ukraine's Kyivstar and a Pakistani fintech, JazzCash, that already moves 15% of the country's GDP. Samit Umatiya of UIG Funds lays out the sum-of-the-parts case for why the holdco could be worth roughly 4x today's price, and Andrew pushes back hard the whole way: a not-so-storied history of value destruction, a sanctioned 45% shareholder, capital controls, and a long graveyard of telecoms that bungled every growth opportunity they ever had. The result is one long push and pull on whether the upside is real this time. This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai. Fiscal.ai is a modern financial data provider for global equities, with a web terminal plus a self-serve API that plugs real-time fundamentals straight into Claude and ChatGPT. Andrew uses it himself. Get 15% off at https://fiscal.ai/yav Chapters: 00:00 The setup: a sum-of-the-parts EM telecom nobody talks about 01:31 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai 02:35 Who is Samit Umatiya and what is VEON 04:19 Vimpelcom to VEON: the history and the Russia exit 08:14 Why is the market asleep on this name? 11:31 The sum of the parts: Kyivstar plus four frontier markets 13:59 Bridging the EV gap: Andrew's $8B vs the bull's $3B holdco 16:36 Valuing a telecom on revenue: the "it's a tech company" case 17:54 JazzCash: 15% of Pakistan's GDP, never independently valued 21:00 The bridge to ~$1B of free cash flow and a 4x 23:40 Organic vs. bolt-on digital growth 24:34 Capital controls and getting cash out of the op-cos 27:11 What the market is missing: demographics and under-penetration 31:09 Starlink: competitor or partner in Ukraine's rebuild? 35:31 Digital stickiness and retention 37:42 The Kaspi problem: a dominant super app that never re-rated 39:25 The AI 1440 strategy and a sovereign-AI moat 42:31 Is telecom just structurally bad at capturing growth? 45:11 Capital allocation and the next catalyst: a JazzCash spin 49:38 The elephant in the room: LetterOne's sanctioned 45% stake 54:05 Geopolitical turmoil as a feature, not a flaw 55:24 Is that 45% block actually an opportunity? 57:09 Founder DNA, CEO Kaan Terzioglu, and the spin-off playbook 1:01:56 Wrap UIG Funds (Samit Umatiya) - https://uigfunds.com Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
June 30 · 45 min
Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalists on MSA Safety: a hidden quality compounder? $MSA
MSA Safety ($MSA) is the "OG pick and shovel" of worker safety: a century-old, pure-play maker of gas detection and firefighter equipment that the Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalist team argues is a quality compounder the market is underrating. The bull case has three legs. Portable gas detection is shifting to a recurring, higher-margin subscription model, the "canary" that now sings to the whole worksite instead of just the worker wearing it. A legally mandated SCBA replacement cycle is coming that consensus barely credits. And a 2023 divestiture of product liabilities freed up the roughly 17% of EBIT that used to leave the building every year at a zero return. Base case: a double to about $350 by 2030 from roughly $160 today. EJ Karobath, Craig Larkin and Bob McGrane walk through why MSA's owned-sensor hardware is hard to copy (Blackline got taken private, and its devices break if you drop them), how winning a tier-one fire department like LA or Memphis pulls the surrounding towns along on interoperability, and why 50-plus years of dividend growth and a record $500 million buyback point to real capital-allocation discipline. I push back on the obvious tension: this is a roughly 20x compounder that does not scream alpha, the CFO is guiding mid-single-digit growth, and most of the thesis only pays off in 2028 to 2030. Is the market that inefficient, or is this just a very good business priced about right? Team MSA's pitch deck is linked here: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/gv1oj18pawqrmeq7lai4j/MSA-Pershing-Square-Challenge-vYAVP.pdf?rlkey=8l5vkpkr7r26oi0k7wx5fcf0h&st=g4ow2fxo&dl=0 This episode is sponsored by Trata: trata.com. Trata is recorded, anonymized conversations between two buysiders who actually follow the same company, about an hour each, with a full transcript. When you are getting up to speed on a name, there is nothing like hearing two people who research it talk it through. Check them out at trata.com. Chapters: 00:00 A quality compounder hiding at a market multiple 01:24 Sponsor: Trata 02:47 Meet Team MSA: EJ, Craig and Bob 05:50 Why they picked MSA: an underfollowed, simple business 07:50 What MSA is: the "OG pick and shovel" of worker safety 10:24 The three segments, and why detection leads 11:51 Fixed vs portable gas detection 13:15 The subscription shift: the canary that sings to the whole worksite 16:40 The moat: durability, owned sensors and a long replacement runway 17:21 Market share, and why Blackline got taken private 21:32 Fire safety: the G1 and the mandated SCBA replacement cycle 23:38 Valuation: a double to ~$350 by 2030, and the reverse DCF 25:43 My pushback: a 20x compounder that doesn't scream alpha 27:00 Why management sandbags the connected and SCBA upside 28:46 A stock for the patient: the J-curve and the long horizon 31:47 Primary research: site visits, IR access and r/firefighting 36:18 Becoming a tech company: 40% of engineers now in software 38:10 The tier-one halo: win LA or Memphis, win the region 42:08 Capital allocation: the liability divestiture, dividends and a $500M buyback 44:13 Wrap: where to find the team and the deck Team MSA (Columbia Business School): pitch deck linked above Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
June 28 · 1 hr
$FOX dropped 25% buying $ROKU. Is the market wrong? | Accrued Interest
Fox's stock is down about 25% since it agreed to buy Roku for $22 billion, and the market has decided the deal is a blunder. Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest thinks the market is wrong. His case: Roku controls roughly 44% of how Americans reach streaming on the big screen, about 3x the next platform, so Fox just bought the "front door" to streaming and around 100 million connected TVs in North America. Look under the surface and the deal is closer to 16-17x free cash flow once you account for Roku's barely-tapped ad levers and synergies. We get into the homepage that became the new "Netflix homepage," why Fox keeps making the smartest M&A bets in media, the Tubi sleeper Simeon is most bullish on, why he loves Roku but is bearish on Spotify, and why Google and Meta look like "true value stocks" to him. I push back hard on whether Fox plus Roku is really better than Roku staying neutral Switzerland for every bidder. See Simeon's post on Fox / Roku here: https://www.accruedint.com/p/the-strait-of-roku-how-fox-seized This episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense. The AI landscape has never been more crowded or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's telling you which tools actually give you an edge. I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors, from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools, and where each one actually fits in a real research process. Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions Chapters: 00:00 What's coming: Fox-Roku, plus Spotify, Google and Meta 01:08 Sponsor: my AI webinar with AlphaSense 02:24 Guest intro: Simeon McMillan, Accrued Interest 03:05 The Fox-Roku deal and why Simeon thinks it makes sense 05:30 Roku as the "Strait of Hormuz" of streaming (44% of viewing) 06:25 Why Fox has the smartest M&A team in media 07:55 Buying the "front door": ~100M connected TVs 10:03 The Roku homepage as the new "Netflix homepage" 13:44 The ad-sales levers hiding under the multiple 16:31 Valuation: 22x EBITDA, ~16-17x free cash flow with synergies 18:01 My pushback: Fox down 25%, winner's curse, thin synergies 19:35 The real risk of staying pure-play (Viacom, Paramount) 24:51 Rebundling and why everyone's partnered up by 2028 26:08 Is Fox+Roku actually better, or could anyone have bought this? 28:01 Cord-cutting, YouTube TV, and the Disney bloody nose 32:07 The Fox bet Simeon likes most: Tubi 38:30 Why now? The 50% streaming inflection and a shrinking buyer pool 42:21 Does AI slop break or boost the distribution thesis? 48:06 The gotcha: bullish Roku, bearish Spotify (the Pokemon theory of media) 52:22 Google and Meta as "true value stocks" 56:55 The complexity discount, Meta's enterprise tools, and founder control 59:13 Wrap and where to find Accrued Interest Simeon McMillan / Accrued Interest: https://accruedinterest.substack.com Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
June 25 · 38 min
June 2026 Random Ramblings
SpaceX is buying Cursor for ~$60B, and one of the early backers was SBF. So was a convicted fraudster also the greatest VC of all time? That's where June's random ramblings start. From there: why I've flipped from AI doom toward AI as a force multiplier, whether deep subject-matter expertise gets MORE valuable as the world fills with AI slop, why legacy brands (KPMG, CBS, People) might actually gain power in an AI world, why "my edge is a long time horizon" is usually a tell for underperformance, and the cracks showing up in Polymarket and prediction markets. This episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense. The AI landscape has never been more crowded or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge? I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors, from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools, and where each one actually fits in a real research process. If you're trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won't want to miss this. Join us on June 25th - register now: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions Chapters: 00:00 What's on the menu this month 02:05 Sponsor: my AI webinar with AlphaSense 03:22 Was SBF the greatest VC of all time? (Cursor, SpaceX, Anthropic) 09:48 Do any frauds or blowups hide assets this valuable? (GGP, Enron, EOG) 11:42 Why I flipped from AI doom toward AI as a force multiplier 13:41 Why AI rewards the creative, and the top 0.1% problem 16:18 AI slop and the rising return on deep expertise (Knicks, ABVX) 20:12 KPMG's hallucinated AI report and secondhand hallucinations 21:57 Does brand get MORE valuable in an AI world? (CBS, People, TMZ, ChatGPT licensing) 25:14 Why "my edge is a long time horizon" is usually a lie 28:50 Forced selling, diamond hands, and the seven-years-of-underperformance letter 32:02 My three-year rule 32:53 Polymarket, MicroStrategy, and the limits of the rulebook 35:00 Prediction markets are reflexive: why nobody's waging "Polymarket wars" yet 37:36 Wrap Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
June 21 · 1 hr 6 min
$YOU.L: is YouGov really an AI loser? | Jonathan Cohen, Zipperline Capital
The market has decided YouGov ($YOU.L) is an AI loser and cut it ~50% in a year. Jonathan Cohen of Zipperline Capital thinks it's an AI winner trading at 6-7x EBITDA, with a 20-year proprietary dataset AI makes more valuable, not less. We spend the first half on the UK as an "emerging market" (corporate governance discounts, why buybacks are finally happening, and why you can never compare UK and US multiples), then go deep on YouGov: the panel, the moat, synthetic data, and why the company is cancelling its dividend to buy back stock. This episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense. The AI landscape has never been more crowded — or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge? I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors — from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools — and where each one actually fits in a real research process. If you're trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won't want to miss this. Join us on June 25th - register now: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions Chapters: 00:00 Why YouGov could be the AI winner the market is misreading 02:56 Why Jonathan Cohen runs a UK and Europe small/mid-cap book 08:01 Why you can never compare UK and US multiples 13:08 What UK analyst coverage actually tells you 17:37 The shift toward UK buybacks and capital allocation 22:00 The "buybacks kill liquidity" myth 25:11 What YouGov really is: a proprietary data business 31:19 Inside the panel: why people answer, and why retention is the moat 36:52 Why the market thinks YouGov is an AI loser 38:19 The bull case: why AI makes YouGov more valuable 40:55 Synthetic data, and why it breaks 46:28 Trust as a moat in a world of AI slop 52:27 Pushback: Chegg, Wix, and the real AI losers 56:51 Content businesses vs distribution businesses 01:00:14 Music, media, and what compounds through disruption 01:05:38 Closing Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
June 15 · 53 min
Alex Roepers on two deep-value special situations: $DCH and $NOMD
Alex Roepers of Atlantic Investment Management lays out two deeply cheap special situations: Dauch (DCH) and Nomad Foods (NOMD). In both, management is sending "dark arts" signals (an aggressive CEO payout struck well above the current price, heavy insider buying) that point to an inflection the market hasn't paid for yet. We dig into the $300M merger synergies at Dauch, the auto-cycle and leverage risk, the governance red flags, the private-label threat to Nomad's frozen-food brands, and whether the European discount on both is real or just doldrums. This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Join Andrew, Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompts, and Ben Collins of AlphaSense for a webinar breaking down the modern AI stack for investors: where horizontal platforms, agentic workflows, and finance-specific tools each actually fit in a real research process. Recording June 16, live June 25. Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions Disclosure: long DCH and NOMD Chapters: 0:00 Two cheap special situations and the "dark arts" setup 1:10 Sponsor: AlphaSense and the AI-stack-for-investors webinar 2:29 Alex Roepers, Atlantic Investment Management 3:04 Dauch ($DCH): the GKN, Melrose and Dowlais backstory 7:05 Why Atlantic made $DCH a core position at ~$6 9:03 The governance knock: a company named after a sub-1% CEO 13:42 Dark arts: the PSU grant that only pays above $12 15:11 Underwriting the $300M merger synergies 18:13 Leverage, capital allocation and the path to buybacks 24:42 The auto cycle and why 5x free cash flow caps the downside 29:12 Nomad Foods ($NOMD): the frozen-food bull case 33:14 Nomad by the numbers: 5.5x earnings, 7% yield 35:39 The bear case: private label, Aldi and a new CEO 39:21 Would Martin Franklin ever sell? 41:22 Dividend or buyback at these levels? 43:00 Is Franklin distracted by APi Group? 45:27 The kitchen-sink reset and a fall investor day 47:37 "Addback city": cleaning up the earnings number 50:02 The European discount: real or imagined? Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
June 10 · 1 hr 13 min
Adam May on $ABVX's blowout data and subsequent stock crash
Abivax posted maybe the best ulcerative colitis data anyone's seen, then crashed 60% on a cancer signal Adam May argues is statistical noise. We dig into whether $ABVX is now a mispriced takeout: the maintenance efficacy that beat Rinvoq, how the scary "seven cancer cases" collapse to two, the blackbox question, the Crohn's skew, and the part two safety data due within weeks. Then a quick look at Nectar (NKTR), its alopecia areata data, and the Eli Lilly lawsuit. This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense, and specifically Andrew's upcoming AI webinar with them: breaking down the modern AI stack for investors with Dave Wang (Wall Street Prompts) and Ben Collins (AlphaSense). Goes live June 25. Register here. Chapters: 00:00 Intro and disclosure (long ABVX and NKTR) 01:03 Sponsor: AlphaSense AI webinar for investors 02:33 The biotech "GOAT" returns 03:33 Abivax setup: induction vs maintenance, the stakes 06:38 The bar: clinical remission and Rinvoq 10:14 Blowout maintenance data, and endoscopic remission that doubles Rinvoq 14:23 The data drops, then a 60% crash 16:31 The cancer scare, taken apart case by case 24:45 Why it's statistical noise: mechanism, clustering, base rates 28:50 Adverse-event capture and the phase 2 safety database 33:57 Bear case: hasn't the market had time to digest this? 38:00 Blackbox or no blackbox, and does it matter at $100 40:32 The Crohn's readout and the skew 45:36 M&A: timing, the new CCO, what Adam wants them to do 47:38 Part two safety data due within weeks 54:46 The cash question: secondary vs sale 57:49 Nectar: strong data, then an unexplained selloff 59:54 The Eli Lilly lawsuit and the jury-trial angle 01:03:26 Ox40 read-through and the Q32 Bio overhang 01:06:07 Most mispriced pick, targets, and the CEO's Cincor parallel 01:12:10 Wrap Links: Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/ Disclosure: Long ABVX and NKTR

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