Trade with Conviction

Episode 108: Iran and Oman talk peace. A tanker gets hit anyway.

Jay Maroo hosts Aaron Kildow and Nikolas Plonski as Hormuz de-escalation talk collides with a fresh tanker strike. Aaron unpacks the US SPR's final barrels and a collapsing TI-Brent spread, while Nikolas breaks down gasoline RINs volatility and a blown-out diesel east-west spread. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters: (00:42) Geopolitics: Hormuz thaw meets sanctions and a tanker strike Oman-Iran deal signals de-escalation but OFAC sanctions widen and a Kuwaiti tanker gets struck. (05:10) US crude: SPR nearly dry, wrong barrels at the wrong time Only 9-10 million SPR barrels remain, mostly sweet, just as diesel season needs sour crude. (12:36) Hormuz hypothetical: what a reopening does to market share Japan and Korea's shift to US crude signals a lasting market share battle if Hormuz reopens. (18:23) Fuel oil and gasoline: feedstock squeeze, RINs whipsaw Venezuelan barrels weigh on Atlantic HSFO while EPA's RIN waiver rumours rattle the gasoline TAR. (28:14) Diesel's east-west spread blows out to minus $90 Chinese buying may be behind the widest east-west diesel spread on record, hinting at a demand shift.

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Episode 107: Diesel cracks blow past 100$. Dirty freight surging.

Felipe Elink Schuurman is joined by James Noel-Beswick and Michael Ryan as Trump threatens Oman and squeezes Iran's UAE-run cash flows. Russian refinery strikes cut runs to a 24-year low, driving diesel cracks past $100 a barrel, while European freight rates collapse to six-month lows. Chapters: (01:28) Hormuz standoff and Trump's threats to Oman Trump threatens crushing sanctions and to bomb Oman as Iran's crude flows keep diversifying away from the strait. (07:27) Crude freight: Suezmax and VLCC rates skyrocket Suezmax and VLCC rates surge as owners chase Red Sea and India demand, squeezing Atlantic tonnage. (09:12) Russia's refinery crisis and diesel's record breakout Drone strikes cut Russian runs to a 24-year low as diesel cracks and spreads hit record highs. (14:02) Diesel flows: Latin America pulls barrels, Europe freight collapses US diesel barrels head to Brazil replacing lost Russian supply, while European MR freight hits six-month lows. (24:02) Gasoline and naphtha: all-time highs meet a pause TAA arb collapses and TC2 freight halves as gasoline touches record cracks and naphtha arbs stay shut. (31:02) Macro: dollar weakness fuels the commodity hedge trade A six-month dollar low points to macro funds buying commodities as an inflation and currency hedge.

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Episode 106: Iran goes on the offensive. ADNOC's great milk run keeps flowing.

June Goh hosts this week with guest Jay Maroo, as Iran hardens its military stance and Hormuz risk lingers. They cover IEA and OPEC's diverging demand calls, ADNOC's transponder-dark shuttle tankers beating the blockade, a stubbornly wide Brent-Dubai EFS, and a tightening Atlantic diesel market. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters: (00:42) Hormuz and Russia: sanctions escalate Two vessel attacks near Hormuz, Iran's military turns hawkish, and a Senate bill threatens 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers. (04:20) IEA vs OPEC: the demand gap IEA turns more bearish on demand while OPEC stays positive, a 2.2 million barrel a day gap. (08:29) The great milk run: ADNOC beats the blockade ADNOC's dark shuttle tankers push UAE output above pre-war levels while Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi stay shut in. (11:20) Fuel oil and crude: the tightening squeeze Singapore fuel oil stays trapped in a tightening loop, ADNOC's tender drops a grade, and WAF premiums look shaky. (17:04) Middle distillates: refinery outages bite Refinery outages tighten Atlantic diesel further, yet Sikka's jet arb into Europe stays wide open. (21:22) Light ends: EBOB strength spreads west Low Rhine water lifts EBOB, US Gulf gasoline exports swell, and Singapore mogas turns bullish for September.

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Episode 105: Hormuz flips again and gasoline cracks get smashed

June Goh hosts Neil Crosby and Abhishek Kumar as Hormuz talks flip on and off again, smashing gasoline cracks. They cover Iranian tanker pileups, China's bigger export quotas, Russian diesel exemptions, Murban futures' wind-down, and a bullish fuel oil case into September. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters: (00:43) Hormuz headlines: the on-off deal traders can't trade Iranian tankers pile up, Houthis strike again, and the binary Hormuz signal looks set to drag past the midterms. (08:21) EIA and China's quota puzzle US crude exports crash from 5.5m to 3.5m b/d as China lifts August export quotas, but quotas aren't shipments. (15:00) Gasoline cracks get smashed EBOB and RBOB spreads unwind hard on fading Hormuz risk and stabilising US stocks. Still no clean trade here. (22:21) Distillates and jet split east and west Asian gas oil rally stalls as China supply returns, while European diesel stays deep in deficit on Russian export curbs. (29:46) Crude quickfire: Murban futures die, Aramco cuts OSPs Ice Murban winds down, Aramco trims Arab Light 50 cents, and West African crude wins on Hormuz avoidance. (33:17)* Fuel oil: the Cape reroute bites Thirty extra days round the Cape means lower runs and less residue, a bullish setup for 0.5% sulfur into September.

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Episode 104: Brent whipsaws and USGC 3:2:1 margins explode. The diesel crisis behind it

June Goh hosts Abhishek Kumar and Jorge Molinero as Brent swings from $100 to $85 to $93 in a week. They cover Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, Suez rerouting costs, a tightening diesel market, and diverging crude premiums across Hormuz and Red Sea choke points. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters: (00:35) Oil's Wild Week: Houthi Attacks and the Yanbu Reroute Brent swung from $100 to $85 to $93 in days. Abhishek breaks down Jizan refinery strikes and Suez rerouting costs. (07:22) Rhine Crisis and Record-Tight US Barrels Kaub gauge nears critical levels as US crude and gasoline stocks hit multi-year lows despite record refinery runs. (09:42) Gasoline and Naphtha: East Beats West East-West spread flips as European E10 blending reopens and the TAR arb into PAD1 looks set to widen. (14:10) Diesel Squeeze and the Freight Spike Behind It TC14 rates jump on tonne mile demand as Jazan's outage and a possible Russian export ban extension tighten Europe further. (20:55) Crude Flows Rewrite Around Two Choke Points Murban and Melbourne premiums diverge as Asian refiners route around both Hormuz and the Red Sea. (24:15) Fuel Oil: HSFO Eases, VLSFO Stays Tight August HSFO cracks pull back from highs while VLSFO cracks sit near $23 on limited medium crude supply.

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Episode 103: The Houthis hit Yanbu. Where does crude go now?

Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels loading at Yanbu leave seven million barrels of crude searching for a route. Felipe Elink Schuurman, James Noel-Beswick and Jay Maroo on Suezmax freight, why diesel still looks undervalued, and the crude spreads with room to run. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox. Chapters: (01:11) Risk stacks up: Houthis, Yanbu and CPC — Attacks on Saudi vessels at Yanbu and 1.5m b/d of Kazakh crude offline stack the risk higher. (03:48) Seven million barrels with nowhere to go — Yanbu crude needs a new route north via Suez or around the Cape. Costlier, slower, tighter. (08:44) Diesel's worst-case setup is building — Jody confirms weak EU demand; diesel still looks undervalued with Russia, Mideast and Yanbu supply all at risk. (19:01) Singapore rips, Europe waits — Singapore spreads break every moving average; Gulf Coast dominates as Europe eyes September arbs. (23:34) The bull case for Brent spreads — Brent Dubai and CPC keep the long alive, but the cleaner trade sits in freight. (27:27) Freight: the trade with conviction — Suezmax TD20 and TD3C as Yanbu and Houthi inefficiencies ripple through shipping.

Episode 102: The ceasefire is dead. Why is crude still asleep?

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby and Jay Maroo on the collapsed Iran ceasefire, Brent's jump from 72 to 85, and the market fatigue no one's pricing. Diesel cracks and gasoline spreads hit records while crude stays quiet, with the Russian diesel ban now double the Hormuz problem. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=audio&utm_campaign=podcast Chapters (01:41) The ceasefire is dead, and the market is tired MOU collapse, escalation back, Brent at 85, but fatigue means no one wants to price the risk. (12:16) Diesel: the Russian ban that dwarfs Hormuz Russian diesel exports near 1m bpd gone, cracks and spreads bullish, Hogo the solver into Europe. (21:52) Crude: enough for now, bullish later Asians scramble for WTI and SPR barrels, Europe long crude, WTI-Brent widens, Brent bullish eventually. (29:49) Gasoline: cracks at ten-year highs Spreads and cracks at records, New York arbs shut for August, Singapore spreads the trade to watch.

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Episode 101: Russia bans diesel, Hormuz reignites. What breaks first?

June Goh hosts her first episode with Abhishek Kumar as the US-Iran ceasefire cracks and Hormuz transits collapse to near zero. They cover Brent flipping back to backwardation, Russia's diesel export ban, China's product relaxation, European cracks near 60, the ADNOC tender, and a short HOGO trade idea. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://www.spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=podcast Chapters: (01:45) Hormuz reignites and the ceasefire cracks Vessels attacked, US revokes Iranian oil license, transits near zero. Trump says the truce is effectively over. (03:13) Spreads, OPEC+ and depleted inventories Brent flips to backwardation, OPEC+ adds another August barrel, global stocks still down over 1 billion barrels. (06:21) Can China save the product market? Beijing clears 1.3 million tons of product exports, but volumes skew to gasoline and jet, not diesel. (08:07) Russia's diesel ban and refinery 101 Drone strikes force a Russian export ban. June breaks down which units get hit and what it signals. (12:08) Crude: the ADNOC tender and the mini glut Chinese teapots buy Upper Zakum, Dubai returns to backwardation, how you can be short crude yet see a glut. (15:01) Distillates, jet and freight European cracks surge past 60, a short HOGO idea, jet becomes a diesel story, Michael Ryan's de-escalation freight case.

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Episode 100: The great divergence: crude collapses while products rally

Felipe Elink Schuurman and research heads Neil Crosby, James Noel-Beswick, and Jorge Molinero mark episode 100 analyzing crude's peak weakness versus 10-year-high distillate rallies. Russia's refinery crisis, Hormuz rebalancing, and when stock replenishment becomes the real floor signal. Chapters: **(01:47) Hormuz reopens, but the real question is what comes next** 10-15 million barrels per day flowing out, but Iran maximizing exports while US refills reserves. **(08:46) Russia's refining collapse is reshaping global product markets** Runs halved from 6M to 3M bpd. Ukraine's drone campaign crippling refineries. Fuel imports imminent. **(12:50) Distillates at 10-year highs: Russian exports collapsing, US yields maxed** Global diesel and jet spreads outdoing 2022. East-West spreads historic. Products decoupling from crude. **(17:25) Gasoline: The trend is your friend, but watch blending margins** RBOB and EBOB spreads rally to $51 on stock depletion. Arbs from ARA still pointing West. **(27:20) Crude at peak weakness: Why the TI Brent short thesis works now** Paper collapsed, logs battered, all solutions materialized. Neil on why prices can only rise from here.

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Episode 99: Brent flips to contango. Is the crude crisis over?

Neil Crosby, June Goh and Abhishek Kumar unpack Brent's shock flip into contango as Hormuz reopens and AG crude floods back. Dubai swaps at minus one, the "Asian crude buffet," a potential Russian diesel ban, and why jet looks weaker than diesel into summer. Chapters: (01:23) Brent flips to contango: the crude sell-off Brent and Dubai flip into contango as Hormuz reopens. Traders extrapolate supply forward, but is it fair value? (09:15) The Asian crude buffet Dubai swaps at minus one, Murban dives $10, Iranian waiver lands. Why nobody wants the risk yet. (16:57) OPEC, UAE and refinery runs UAE back to max, China independents at a nine-year low. How fast does AG supply return? (20:40) Distillates and the Russian diesel ban Diesel off panic pricing but not loose. Abhishek leans bearish jet and HOGO as flows normalize. (30:13) Gasoline and naphtha Houston still tightest globally, but US peak tightness looks behind us. Weak naphtha caps any gasoline upside.

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Episode 98: Iran signs, crude breaks $80, but we're now oversold

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby and James Noel-Beswick dig into the signed Iran-US MOU and a market pricing rapid de-escalation. Crude under $80, Dubai swaps in contango, an oversold barrel. They weigh whether Hormuz reopens cleanly or shipping delays keep oil short for longer. Chapters: (00:31) The Iran MOU: signed, but what was signed? A $300bn package, a 60-day Hormuz waiver and a deal that looks better for Iran than the US. (06:31) Scenarios: oversold now, but is it real? Dubai swaps in contango, longs washed out. Neil maps the path from here over the next six weeks. (15:43) Distillates: cracks cool, US stocks stay perilous Gas oil spreads sell off hard, but heating oil holds as PADD diesel stocks signal slowing US exports. (18:57) Gasoline: the US bounce and Europe's supply wall RBOB spreads firm as arbs open to New York, while Dangote and Northwest Europe cap the upside. (23:32) Crude: heavy everywhere except the US AG and Brent diffs plummet, US tightens then peaks, and China is the swing nobody can call. (29:03) Fuel oil: 0.5 looks oversold East-west back below $40/ton at pre-war levels, with arbs shut and Dangote barely breaking even.

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Episode 97: Hormuz transits accelerate but risk is high.

Neil Crosby hosts with Michael Ryan and June Goh. Growing Hormuz transits, a record 262 VLCC orders, Atlantic tonnage oversupply, softening Dubai premiums, and why Singapore VLSFO blend margins are building a bullish case into Q3. Chapters: (00:48) Atlantic freight: the tonnage trap Ships flooding the Atlantic from all segments as Persian Gulf flows shrink, driving wild rate swings. (04:47) Iran, Hormuz and US strategy US-Iran direct conflict resumes; Hormuz transits quietly growing as Iran's oil influence fades. (07:26) Demand data and inventory watch Indian and EU demand mixed; Cushing near its 20 million barrel floor; VLSFO stocks at zero in Fujairah. (12:09) Record VLCC orders: a long-term warning 262 VLCCs on order, surpassing the 2008 peak. The bearish signal shipowners cannot ignore. (19:19) PG crude: trickle turns to stream ADNOC tenders 14 million barrels; Dubai premiums soften; China stays out of WAF and PG markets. (26:59) Products quickfire: distillates, gasoline, fuel oil Singapore regrade strengthens; VLSFO east-west collapses to $55/ton; Botany Bay gasoline arb reopens.

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Episode 96: Peace deal merry-go-round continues

Felipe Elink Schuurman hosts Neil Crosby and first-time guest Jay Maroo. The episode covers the stalled US-Iran peace process, Hormuz transit at 10% of pre-crisis levels, Indian and Chinese product exports collapsing, Cushing approaching its 20 million barrel floor, and why crude, distillates, and gasoline all look too cheap. Chapters: (01:15) Sleepwalking into the inventory crisis Lebanon complicates the Iran deal; Brent under $100 despite accelerating US commercial crude draws. (06:00) Hormuz: 10% of pre-crisis flows Jay Maroo: even a peace deal won't reopen flows quickly — Hormuz is a runway, not a field. (10:29) India, Russia, China: the supply rescue fails Indian exports at 4-year lows, Russian runs collapsing, Chinese product exports disappoint May expectations. (14:39) Distillates: gas oil rallies, heating oil spreads lag Kuwait airport attack lifts sentiment; heating oil spreads haven't followed — and may still be the trade. (20:28) Crude: Cushing at 22 million barrels Commercial draws hit 1 mbd last week; physical diffs in Europe cooling from unexpected crude inflows. (26:57) Gasoline: at five-year mean, everything looks cheap ARA cheapest into LatAm; demand destruction estimates rising to 5-6 mbd globally.

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Episode 95: Risk-off and short-term solvers, but it won't last.

Neil Crosby and June Goh cut through the noise on US-Iran deal speculation, unpacking why flat price is off, what 7 million bpd of Chinese crude imports means for diesel east-west dynamics, and why Sing FOGO holds up when bunker demand proves more inelastic than diesel. 00:00 – Hormuz risk and deal pricing Why the market is pricing an imminent deal, and why the evidence points the other way. 03:03 – China's crude import collapse May imports potentially at 7 million bpd — what that means for Asian balances and global supply. 09:32 – Dubai window and physical crude Dubai in the doldrums with almost no convergences; sellers stuck with cargo bought at higher levels. 09:53 – WTI, TI-Brent, and US market tightening Commercial draws accelerating, WCS diffs rising, MEH diff tightening — why TI-Brent could move further. 12:16 – Gasoline: RBOB, TA spreads, and Latam Summer arb mechanics, TC2 tonnage overhang, and the ARA vs Houston competitive dynamic. 17:09 – Distillates, east-west, and fuel oil China's crude release reshapes diesel E/W; Sing FOGO positive bias as bunker demand holds more inelastic than diesel.

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Episode 94: The largest stock draw in history. Oil barely moved.

Felipe Elink Schuurman, June Goh, and new analyst Abhishek Kumar cover a record 19.5mb stock draw that barely moved prices, the Russia OFAC waiver with no new barrels, India's supply strategy, Asia's group buying trend, and trade views across distillates, jet, fuel oil, and gasoline. Chapters: (01:02) Trump backs down and vessels start moving June on the Iran strike cancellation, ICE Brent's fall, and the first VLCCs exiting the Strait. (02:35) Record 19.5mb stock draw. The market barely reacted. June on the historic combined crude and product draw and why flat price still fell to $105/bbl. (07:35) Russia waivers and UK exemptions: what they actually mean The OFAC extension adds no new barrels. The UK diesel/jet waiver is a sign of desperation, not relief. (12:45 ) India in focus: supply strategy, Russia dependency, and SPR plans Abhishek on India's pump price hike, Modi's demand appeals, and long-term moves to expand strategic reserves. (19:24) Physical crude: Asia over-supplied for August June on the prompt overhang, Brent backwardation at $4.50/bbl, and why WAF grades remain undervalued. (23:17) Distillates, jet, and gasoline: trade views Abhishek's case for July ICE gas oil cracks, bearish NWE jet, and June on Singapore 92 near 5-year highs.

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Episode 93: No Iran deal yet. US stocks are draining. What breaks first?

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby, and James Noel-Beswick cover the stalling Iran deal, Karg Island's loading disruption, US diesel and gasoline stocks nearing commercial minimums, growing export ban risk, collapsing Brent differentials, and why the market keeps surprising on timing. Chapters: (01:08) Iran deal stalls and Karg Island goes quiet Neil on why the deal looks dead and what a loading stoppage at Iran's main export terminal signals. (03:13) US product stocks and the export ban risk Diesel and gasoline near commercial minimums. Neil on why a ban could land before June. (06:25) Distillates: jet yields, the regrade, and East West Jet yields near max, the regrade has overshot, and why James is bullish from here. (28:50) Crude: Brent diffs collapse and China goes quiet WAF selling slowly, Chinese imports 3mbd below normal. Neil makes the case for buying Brent diffs. (36:26) Gasoline: ARA turns cheapest, US starts to drain ARA now the cheapest global source, US stocks declining, and why 2015-style summer tightness is back. (40:12) Getting the timing right The team reflects on why fundamentals have been right but timing wrong, and what the real trigger points are.

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Episode 92: Iran talks spin. US diesel stocks are running out of runway.

Neil Crosby hosts with June Goh and Jorge Molinero. Iran deal uncertainty keeps markets trading headlines as US diesel stocks head for critical lows within weeks. June covers Saudi OSPs, record Japanese US crude purchases, and TMX. Jorge runs through the ARA-PAD1 gasoline arb and GASNAP strength. Chapters: (00:31) Iran deal uncertainty The market trades headlines as US policy shifts erratically and Iran's red lines stay unclear. (04:09) US diesel stocks: weeks of runway left Commercial crude and diesel inventories are drawing at pace; a reckoning may be only weeks away. (07:19) Physical crude: Saudi OSPs, TMX, and Japan's record US buys Saudi barrels look expensive; Japan locks in 12 million barrels of US crude for August delivery. (15:44) Gasoline: the ARA-PAD1 arb stays open TAR remains open for refiners; GASNAP hits historical highs as East-West rebounds and naphtha softens. (27:00) Middle distillates: East-West looks too cheap Gas oil spreads collapsed from +100 to +36 in 10 days. Neil makes the case they've overshot. (31:20) Fuel oil and freight Sing 0.5 crack rallies to $15; VLSFO tight across Fujairah, HK, and Korea; TC14 and TD25 flagged as overvalued.

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Episode 91: Asia absorbed the initial shock. Now the US is running dry.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Neil Crosby, and Jorge Molinero on the crisis shifting West. Neil unpacks a 25-million-barrel US stock draw and trade ideas across Hogo, regrade, and diesel cracks. Jorge covers gasoline East-West flows and the US TAR opening. Chapters: (01:20) Big picture: Iran war and the physical reset US drew 25 million barrels in one week. Neil explains why physical isn't pricing max pain yet. (07:38) East to West: how the crisis is shifting Asia absorbed the initial shock. The US is now the story, swinging from net importer to net exporter. (15:43) Gasoline: East-West collapse and the ARA arb Felipe and Jorge debate East-West recovery as Singapore becomes cheapest gasoline into more destinations. (21:47) US gasoline TAR: the arbitrage is opening Net imports at seven-year lows. The ARA-to-PAD1 arb is cracking open for the first time in months. (30:50) Middle distillates: Hogo, regrade, and deferred diesel cracks Neil makes the case for three distillates trades as US stocks approach historical lows. (37:02) Crude: TI Brent, Brent diffs, and the flat price view TI Brent still looks like a buy. Brent physical diffs may run lower short-term.

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Episode 90: The market is exhausted. The crisis is not.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman and June Goh cover the FT Commodities conference, where major trading house CEOs signalled no short-term resolution to Hormuz. June runs through crude premium collapse, EU sanctions, and a bullish fuel oil case into Q3. Chapters: (01:04) FT Conference: No deal in sight, Russia backing Iran CEOs of Trafigura, Vitol, Mercuria and Gunvor: no short-term resolution. Mercuria's Dunand: Russia is backing Iran. (10:20) Headlines: Hormuz stays shut and airlines start cancelling flights Ceasefire extended but Hormuz stays shut. IRGC firing on vessels. Lufthansa cancels 20,000 summer flights. (17:11) Crude: Premiums drop $11 as China sells West African barrels Forties premiums down $11. China selling West African barrels into Asia while tapping SPR for state refiners. (22:02) Distillates: HOGO squeeze and the East-West tug of war US diesel at five-year lows keeps HOGO supported. East-West stuck at minus 35-40 but Europe-Asia barrel fight looms. (27:31) Gasoline and naphtha: EPA waivers, the Atlantic shift and East-West collapse Europe now cheapest into Mexico as Houston tightens. Naphtha East-West at war lows but a rebound looks likely. (34:48) Fuel oil: Singapore tightens and Q3 VLSFO cracks are a buy Russian fuel oil propping up Singapore is set to dry up. June calls Q3 VLSFO cracks at $11 a buy.

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Episode 89: The blockade is here. Now what?

Host Neil Crosby talks with June Goh and Michael Ryan about a week of conflicting signals on Iranian vessels, accelerating refinery run cuts across Asia, and the secondary unit squeeze nobody's talking about. The team unpacks why a peace deal wouldn't fix markets overnight, how freight rates could spike if tankers can't reposition in time, and where the real pricing action is in diesel and gasoline. Chapters: (00:46) The blockade is here, but what does it actually mean? Neil opens with the state of play after the failed peace talks, the conflicting signals on which ships are getting through Hormuz, and why owners still don't have enough clarity to act. (04:16) Even with peace, the supply chain is broken. June explains why a deal wouldn't fix the market overnight, with three to six months needed to rebuild logistics and reposition the VLCCs that have scattered to the US Gulf Coast. (06:14) Asian run cuts and SPR draws are accelerating. The team breaks down Japan's 68% utilization rate, Singapore's 50–60% runs, and China's reluctant move to tap strategic reserves. (15:33) The secondary unit squeeze nobody's talking about. June walks through how lower medium sour availability cascades through VGO, hydrocrackers, FCCs, and short residue units, and why Singapore bunker fuel production is at risk. (22:25) What happens to AG freight if peace lands? Michael lays out the scenario where a deal triggers a selloff in AG paper, but a shortage of repositioned tankers could cause rates to spike again weeks later. (25:50) Diesel and gasoline: where the real pricing action is. The team covers the surprise weakness in Singapore diesel, the divergence in gasoline cracks between East and West, and what it means for arb economics heading into May.