The Weekly Fix

RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc.

Today’s markets move fast. To keep you up to speed each week, Andrzej Skiba, CFA, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income at RBC Global Asset Management, and members of his investment team will deliver forward looking market commentary and insights into what’s driving fixed income markets over the coming week.

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#149
Tuesday · 5 min
Competition for capital is back
What if the real opportunity in fixed income isn't just higher yields, it's who holds the leverage? Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down why growing global demand for capital is shifting power toward bondholders. Governments, companies, and AI infrastructure are all competing for the same capital When financing needs outpace investor appetite, borrowers offer greater compensation to attract it A wide spread alone doesn't make a bond a good investment—disciplined credit selection matters Anne explains why selectivity on issuer, structure, and price matters more than ever when competition for capital is growing.
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#148
October 6 · 4 min
When rising yields stop being credit's friend
What happens when the technical that usually supports credit starts working against it? Ben Romeo, Senior Trader on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, unpacks the shift. Rate volatility and inflation concerns are reshaping the buyer base Issuers are pulling back from the long end, redirecting demand to the secondary market Wider concessions on new issues are giving investors more attractive entry levels French sovereign risk has spilled from Europe into US credit It's a setup worth paying attention to, and one where fundamentals still hold up.
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#147
September 29 · 5 min
Rising yields just rewrote the bond playbook
What if rising bond yields are actually an opportunity in disguise? Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team breaks down what's driving the rate move and how investors should position. Higher starting yields provide a stronger income foundation The investment case doesn't require a sharp fall in interest rates Opportunities are uneven across the bond market The recent rise in bond yields has reshaped the income landscape for fixed income investors. Robust growth, higher energy prices, and uncertainty in the Middle East have all contributed to the shift in rates.
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#146
September 22 · 3 min
When yield isn't enough
A Federal Reserve hike lifts yields, but attractive income alone does not mean investors are being paid for the credit risk they take. Higher yields strengthen the foundation for income, but an attractive yield alone doesn't mean you're being paid for credit risk—both must be assessed together. Curve positioning matters: short-term yields may rise with policy rates, while persistent deficits and capital competition could keep long-term borrowing costs elevated even after the Fed eases. Financial strength is a competitive moat—companies with durable cash flows and manageable debt can keep investing when weaker competitors face financing constraints.
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#145
September 15 · 4 min
Inflation corners the Fed
Stubborn inflation has the Fed cornered while AI's biggest leaders call to slow down, two forces reshaping the outlook investors face right now. August inflation ran hot, pushing the market to price a roughly 90% chance of a September rate hike. The Trump administration's push for rate cuts leaves Fed Chair Warsh caught between stubborn inflation and political pressure to ease policy. Leaders of the three largest AI companies jointly called to slow development, warning AI is advancing faster than humans can monitor or control it.
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#144
September 1 · 3 min
The Fed's no-win moment
What happens when the Fed runs out of good options? That's the question hanging over markets after a hawkish Jackson Hole. This week, Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, unpacks what Chair Warsh's stance means for rates and risk. AI adoption and capex spend remain key drivers of US growth Higher-for-longer rates shape the market backdrop Tim explores the credit landscape heading into September From US-Canada trade tensions to escalating geopolitical risk, Tim walks through the forces that defined the week and what they mean for credit.
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#143
August 25 · 5 min
The Treasury's yield problem it can't buy its way out of
Can the Treasury buy its way out of a yield problem? Andrzej Skiba, Head of U.S. Fixed Income on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down what's really driving long Treasury yields—and why short-term fixes fall short. Treasury buybacks briefly eased long yields before markets grew skeptical The credible solution is deficit reduction, but political appetite for spending cuts looks limited Treasury and Fed policy are pulling in opposite directions, putting the Fed in a tricky spot With Labor Day approaching, investors are sifting through incoming economic data and policy statements for direction.
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#142
August 18 · 5 min
Where did all the junk go?
Where did the riskiest borrowers in credit actually go? Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, unpacks how credit risk is migrating—and why the high yield label no longer tells the whole story. The high yield market has grown higher in quality, yet risk hasn't disappeared—it's moved. Much of it has migrated into leveraged loans and private credit over the past decade. The AI and data center buildout is bringing stronger balance sheets and new backstops into parts of high yield. When the market beneath the index changes, the index alone is no longer enough.
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#141
August 11 · 3 min
When a falling unemployment rate is bad news
What happens when the unemployment rate falls even as jobs disappear? Mindy Gudmundson, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM’s BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, unpacks a week of mixed market signals and what they reveal about the labor market beneath the headlines. Job losses concentrated in consumer-facing sectors hint at a cooling labor market A falling unemployment rate reflects workers leaving the workforce, not underlying strength The Fed's new chair is letting data, not commentary, steer policy It's a week where the numbers told two very different stories, and the gap between them is where the real insight lives.
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#140
August 4 · 4 min
When the bond market does the Fed's job
What happens when a divided Fed meets a bond market that's doing its own thing? Laurie Mount, Portfolio Manager with RBC BlueBay's US Fixed Income team, breaks down the latest Federal Open Market Committee decision and what it means for your cash strategy. A split committee with growing dissent among voting members The long end of the Treasury curve is telling a very different story Why staying liquid matters more than ever right now With conflicting signals from the Fed and geopolitical tensions adding pressure, staying nimble has become the defining move for cash investors today.
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#139
July 28 · 5 min
The AI build quietly rewriting credit markets
What happens when the race to build AI infrastructure meets the realities of credit markets? Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income at RBC GAM, breaks it down in this week's episode. The AI buildout is reshaping how credit markets work. Debt issuance is climbing as companies finance the expansion. In-depth credit underwriting is what separates the strongest opportunities from the rest. When capital needs surge and equity issuance doesn't keep pace, debt markets carry the load-and that's exactly what's playing out right now. It's a moment that rewards careful, selective thinking.
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#138
July 21 · 4 min
The ABS market's record year has a catch
Record asset-backed securities (ABS) issuance. Spreads at year-to-date tights. But underneath, a bifurcated consumer is quietly narrowing the margin for error. Teri Savage, Senior Trader on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down what's driving the ABS market's record pace, and why security selection has never mattered more. ABS gross issuance is on pace for a record year, fueled by funding costs, diversification needs, consumer debt growth, and new sectors entering the market - yet spreads now sit at year-to-date tights across most subsectors. The consumer is holding up overall, but the picture is bifurcated: stress is concentrated in subprime borrowers, and while early-stage delinquencies remain below pre-pandemic levels, they're expected to rise gradually as higher rates increase pressure. With spreads historically stretched and the wiggle room for error narrowed, risks span geopolitical, technical, and fundamental factors — making credit tiering and active security selection increasingly critical for ABS investors.
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#137
July 14 · 4 min
The credit upgrade nobody's pricing in
Tight spreads don't tell the whole story. The most compelling opportunities in US credit right now may be hiding in plain sight. Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down why the U.S. high yield market's quiet quality transformation is creating real opportunity for active managers - just as the AI trade begins to test investor appetite. The AI tailwind in corporate bonds may be waning, and that changes the question investors need to be asking. BB-rated bonds now make up roughly half the US high yield index, up from a third pre-2010, while the riskiest borrowing has migrated to leveraged loans and private credit. High yield spreads at ~270bps look tight versus a 500bps+ historical average, but index-level data masks significant dispersion - and that's exactly where active managers can add value.
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#136
July 7 · 4 min
Rates may have peaked. AI's credit boom is just getting started.
Fed hikes may be overpriced, but yields stay supported by AI-driven growth. IG carry remains strong as record supply tests spreads. The Treasury curve is expected to steepen in the second half of 2026: front-end yields may ease as oil-driven inflation pressure subsides and markets have potentially priced in too many Fed hikes under Chair Warsh's data-dependent regime, while robust AI-related investment and productivity-driven growth should keep yields stable to slightly higher at the 10-year and beyond. Investment grade credit spreads remain tight — index OAS at 74 basis points with a yield-to-worst of 5.22% — yet strong company fundamentals and yield-based demand have absorbed the heaviest supply environment in years, with US IG gross issuance already crossing $1.26 trillion year-to-date, matching the record pace set in 2020, and July alone forecasted to bring approximately $130 billion in new supply — the busiest July in a decade. Technology and data center bonds have become the defining theme in IG credit for 2026: hyperscalers are expected to borrow as much as $190 billion in the bond market this year alone, and while the team sees this pace continuing, they are building exposure selectively — targeting wider spread entry points among the highest-quality issuers while remaining overweight banks, defensive sectors, corporate hybrids, and insurance, and largely avoiding deep cyclicals and BDC bonds.
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#135
June 23 · 4 min
The rate cut era is over
The Federal Reserve's pivot under new leadership is reshaping the fixed income landscape, and investors need to be ready. Laurie Mount, Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down what changed at the Fed's latest meeting and how investors should think about navigating this shift. Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair delivered a hawkish surprise, with officials now projecting higher rates through 2027 and markets pricing in a rate hike as soon as September. The Fed pulled back on guidance and moved to discretionary bond purchases, creating less certainty about future moves and more potential volatility in short-term Treasury yields. While a potential US-Iran deal has pushed gas prices below $4 for the first time since March, tight spreads and lingering inflation pressures still call for caution in this environment.
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#134
June 16 · 3 min
The AI job shock nobody’s talking about
The Fed's dual mandate faces unique challenges as artificial intelligence (AI) adoption creates new uncertainty around employment and rate trajectory. Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, examines how AI-driven economic transformation is reshaping the outlook for rates and credit markets. Strong fundamentals support elevated rates - US gross domestic product (GDP) growth fueled by AI capex, low unemployment, solid corporate earnings, and consumer cash balances higher than pre-COVID levels across all income bands (even after adjusting for inflation). AI adoption uncertainty is the critical unknown - The Fed's dual mandate of full employment and price stability will inevitably be tested as AI reshapes the job market, creating unpredictability in both economic direction and rate trajectory. High yield offers a potentially compelling income opportunity - With rates elevated and portfolios shorter in duration, investors are increasingly attracted to the steady cash flow that high yield can provide in today's environment.
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#133
June 9 · 4 min
When AI becomes an infrastructure debt story
Capital formation replaces innovation as AI's next frontier: a new $85B raise and $1.5 trillion financing gap signal that hyperscaler balance sheets alone cannot fund the infrastructure buildout, forcing debt into utilities, private credit, and securitized markets. Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, examines how AI is transitioning from a technology story to a capital markets story, and why this shift matters for fixed income investors navigating the next phase of infrastructure financing. AI's capital requirements now exceed what even the most profitable tech companies can self-fund, forcing a migration into investment-grade bonds, utility debt, infrastructure finance, and private credit markets. A major technology company’s $85B equity raise signals a fundamental shift where access to capital becomes as critical as access to technology, echoing historical patterns from railroads to fiber networks. Fixed income investors face a critical question: will AI monetization arrive fast enough to prevent an overleveraged ecosystem, or are we witnessing the early stages of a new infrastructure debt regime?
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#132
June 2 · 5 min
The mortgage market’s quiet revolution
Built for this moment: Mortgage-backed securities are earning their place in fixed-income portfolios amidst an uncertain rate environment. Teri Savage, Senior Trader on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, unpacks how securitized sectors are navigating sticky inflation and shifting Fed expectations. Agency mortgages continue to act as a vital defensive anchor for portfolios during periods of broader macro uncertainty. The upward move in 30-year mortgage rates reflects a market transitioning to a higher-for-longer narrative regarding monetary policy. With contained net supply and stable prepayments, mortgage spreads present a highly compelling alternative to corporate credit.
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#131
May 19 · 4 min
Stocks up, bonds down, and the Fed's not moving
Prolonged Middle East tensions drive aggressive bond selloffs across global markets, but strong corporate earnings and elevated yields keep high yield resilient amid broader fixed income volatility. Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income, explores how geopolitical fatigue is reshaping market dynamics, the widening Fed-ECB policy split, and why high yield continues to outperform amid bond market turbulence. Geopolitical standoff in the Middle East is wearing thin on markets, driving aggressive bond selloffs as inflation fears mount despite underlying US economic resilience. The Fed-ECB monetary policy divide is widening, with Europe likely facing inevitable rate hikes while the Fed maintains a cautious hold stance and watches incoming data. High yield stands as the year's clear fixed income winner, supported by strong corporate earnings, elevated yields providing carry cushion, and AI-driven market momentum.
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#130
May 12 · 4 min
AI concentration risk: don’t get over hype-scaled
The rapid AI infrastructure buildout draws capital from bonds, banks, and utilities – creating potential for concentration risk exposure. Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down how Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure funding is reverberating throughout public and private credit markets. Hyperscalers are tapping public bonds, private infrastructure capital, and bank construction loans simultaneously—turning what looks like diversified exposure into overlapping bets on the same AI buildout theme. Banks and utilities are ramping up debt issuance, as utilities fund rising power demands and banks manage expanding balance sheets, compounding market pressure across sectors. What once appeared as well-diversified cross-sector allocations may now represent concentrated exposure to a single mega-theme, as the AI buildout channels through every corner of the credit market.
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