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The Swing

Pendulum Group

Pendulum's, The Swing, delivers Canadian political analysis for a global audience. Whether it's current affairs, global developments, or political shifts, you'll find expert perspectives, balanced dialogue, and the context you need to stay informed. Tune in for a smarter take on today's biggest issues.

Pendulum Group and special guests keep you up to date on current topics and issues.

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S2 · E8
Tuesday · 37 min
International Democracy Day: How Resilient are the Citizens Who Make Democracy Work?
Democracy Starts With Us. As we mark the International Day of Democracy on The Swing, and the release of International IDEA’s Global State of Democracy Report 2026: Democracy in an Age of Conflict, host Heather Bakken is joined by Alberto Fernandez Gibaja of International IDEA, Maiwand Rayab of Resilient Societies, and the head of Pendulum Group's information integrity practice, Jennifer Irish. The Global State of Democracy Report provides evidence based analysis on democratic performance worldwide and highlights global democratic trends. In this episode the conversation explores what happens when trust, shared reality, civic space and community connections are undermined by adversaries, false narratives and technology that leverage events and wedge issues to promote polarization, disinformation and conflict. And it examines what we can do about it -- from strengthening civic institutions to simply knowing our neighbours and exercising our democratic agency. So why is in democracy in decline? How resilient are the citizens who make democracy work? Tune into The Swing to find out.
S2 · E7
August 18 · 26 min
Defending Canada in an Age of Contactless War
In modern AI-driven warfare, the battlefield isn't just overseas — it's in our feeds, our institutions, and our trust in one another. The nature of the threat means we can't leave it up to professional organizations like the security and intelligence community to mitigate and deal with the threat. Civilian resiliency is critical to withstanding this threat environment. In this episode, host Heather Bakken sits down with hybrid warfare expert Dr. Christian Leuprecht (Royal Military College, Queen's University) and Jennifer Irish (Pendulum Geopolitical Strategic Advisory Principal and lead of the Information Integrity practice) to unpack the threats targeting Canadian communities and explore: Civilian resilience and the capacity of individuals and communities to anticipate, withstand, and recover from disruption and manipulation Civic resilience in our media, civil society, and democratic institutions, built from the local level up Societal resilience as a pan-Canadian effort to fortify our institutions and mend the divisions our adversaries seek to exploit. Local communities are being targeted. The response must engage the private sector, civil society, and community organizations. Drawing on lessons from Finland, the Baltics, and Australia, one conclusion stands out: the best defence against adversaries who weaponize our divisions is investing in what brings us together. Because all security is local — and resilience starts with every Canadian.
S2 · E6
July 16 · 29 min
Civilian Resiliency in the Cognitive Warfare Domain: Lessons Learned from Estonia
This episode of Pendulum's The Swing, hosted by Heather Bakken, features Peeter Tali, who is a member of Estonia's parliament and former head of the Estonian Ministry of Defence's Strategic Communications Department, alongside Balkan Devlen, principal in Pendulum's geopolitical practice and a leading Canadian expert on international security, NATO, and geopolitical risk. Drawing on Estonia's front-line experience countering the weaponization of information, Tali shares practical lessons for building civilian resiliency, including embedding media literacy, AI awareness, and civics education into school curricula, as well as fostering the national pride and cultural touchstones that adversaries so often target. Devlen underscores that democracies must not only talk about allied cooperation but actively invest in it, echoing Benjamin Franklin's warning that "if we don't hang together, we'll be hung separately." Tali and Devlen explain how Russia, in particular, is in a continuous state of information confrontation in the Cognitive Warfare domain. While there is a kinetic war in Ukraine, there is a shadow war with the rest of Europe and the Kremlin is constantly attacking freedom of speech, democracy and the rule of law to divide society, break the will of the people and prevail through diplomatic, informational, military and economic means. The discussion underscores a shared sense of urgency for allied nations to act now to protect against this weaponization of information because information warfare using AI will be a tsunami that makes the digital disruption seem like a ripple on the water. Building resilience as allies, as institutions, and as individuals cannot wait.
S2 · E5
May 14 · 38 min
Weaponizing Hate: Gendered Disinformation Attacks on Social Infrastructure
Gendered disinformation is both a sophisticated weapon and a blunt-force tool of hybrid warfare that is being used to silence women. It is a threat to collective security -- and democracies are paying the price. In this episode of The Swing, host Heather Bakken is joined by three leading experts to unpack one of the most urgent and underexamined threats to democratic participation. Dr. Janos Botschner is a behavioural scientist and public safety leader. Dr. Mateusz Łabuz is a cybersecurity researcher specializing in AI-driven disinformation and cognitive warfare. And Professor Jennifer Irish is a Principal at Pendulum Group's Geopolitical Strategic Advisory and Lead of the Information Integrity Practice. The panel examines how AI is supercharging gendered attacks by making them more scalable, more believable, and more damaging. The chilling effect and harm it causes is a fundamental threat to all citizens, communities and society. Synthetic pornography and coordinated harassment campaigns have real-world consequences: PTSD and mental health impacts that harm well being and productivity, the chilling effect on who chooses to enter politics, public leadership, or journalism, and the permission structures that allow misogyny to proliferate across platforms and cross from the digital world into physical threat. These experts tackle hard questions: how state and non-state actors are actively exploiting gendered disinformation as a geopolitical tool, where legal frameworks and platform accountability are failing, and what a whole-of-society response actually looks like. This is not just a conversation about online abuse. It's a conversation about who gets to participate in democracy and who is being systematically pushed out. The call to action is stronger platform accountability, updated criminal codes, digital literacy education, and coordinated institutional support. Broader Bios: Prof. Jennifer Irish is a principal at Pendulum's Geopolitical team and the Information Integrity practice lead. She is an accomplished former Canadian diplomat and senior international and national security executive, currently serving as an Associate at University of Ottawa’s Telfer Centre for Executive Leadership, where she directs its security and intelligence programming. Her work advances the understanding, analysis and mitigation of disinformation, misinformation and foreign influence operations. Dr. Mateusz Łabuz is the head of "International Cybersecurity" project at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH), You can learn more about NCII and 'deep fakes' through his report: Non Consensual Sexualizing Deepfakes - Threats and Recommendations for Legal & Societal Action. Dr. Janos Botschner is Principal of HumInsight and a Senior Associate with the Community Safety Knowledge Alliance (CSKA). He has presented aspects of this work globally, and continues to be active in this area. Janos and CSKA recently led a major initiative focusing on gendered disinformation in collaboration with Sapper Labs Group, Actua and others. Learn more here: Tackling Online Gendered Disinformation: New Canadian Research and Resources Special thanks to our audio engineer, Paul MacInnis.
S2 · E4
April 25 · 23 min
Powering Canada: Can Energy Ambition Overcome Regulatory Reality?
Prime Minister Mark Carney's office announced it will hold the first Canada Investment Summit in September. In this episode of The Swing, Pendulum examines whether Canada can turn its vast energy wealth into a competitive advantage in an increasingly power-hungry world. Host Heather Bakken is joined by industry leaders Lorena Patterson, President and CEO of Water Power Canada; Leah Lawrence, Corporate Director and President of Clean Energy Capitalists; and Cam McAlpine, Principal at Pendulum. Canada is simultaneously one of the most resource-rich and one of the most regulatory-constrained countries in the developed world. Slow permitting, fragmented federal-provincial governance, and complex consultation processes are creating uncertainty that deters investment, even as global demand for energy surges. This conversation takes electrification beyond the grid to a broader human and economic story where more of life is being powered, monitored, stored, and optimized through electricity that includes everything from phones, watches, rings, and cloud-based memory to organizations, industrial equipment, and critical infrastructure that are increasingly monitored in real time. Unlocking Canada’s energy potential requires more than policy tweaks. In the race for AI data centers and industrial reshoring, it demands political will, coordinated governance, and a shift in how Canadians understand energy as a foundation of economic sovereignty and national strategy that can unleash future prosperity and security. Check out Lorena's opinion piece in the Financial Post for more insights on large-scale hydroelectricity: Canada’s hydro power problem is all the barriers blocking it | Financial Post Special thanks to our audio engineer, Paul MacInnis, aka "the guy",
S2 · E3
March 29 · 29 min
Statecraft to Stagecraft: The Use of AI in Cognitive Warfare
War with Iran marks the first truly AI-native information environment in warfare where the human brain is both the target and the weapon, and the battlefield is your phone. In this episode, producer and host Heather Bakken is joined by two experts in the field of cognitive and gray zone warfare. Jennifer Irish is a principal at Pendulum Geopolitical Advisory Group and leader of the Information Integrity Practice. She's also a former Canadian diplomat and security executive. Elizabeth Anderson is a former senior advisor to Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs and a fellow at the Montreal Institute for Global Security. Her research specializes in cognitive warfare and democratic resilience. The 2026 threat environment has our adversaries working at machine speed against our human-paced institutions. From deep fakes to cheap fakes and video cartoons, AI is industrializing information manipulation at warp speed. Identity can be cloned, platforms can be mimicked and content can be mass-produced. Have we crossed a threshold where we cannot guarantee what truth is anymore? Tune in to find out. With special thanks to our audio engineer, "The Guy", Paul MacInnis.
S2 · E2
March 21 · 18 min
Is the Strait of Hormuz a Straitjacket for Democracy?
This episode host Heather Bakken is joined by Pendulum colleagues Jennifer Irish and Yaroslav Baran to discuss how the seemingly unplanned aspects of U.S. strategy in Iran are actually playing out geopolitically and what impact it has on Canada. The trio unpacks what the war reveals about great power dynamics and the consequences that reach well beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Irish argues this conflict is an example of what warfare is going to become in the hybrid warfare space, which involves multiple fronts, and the implications for Canada. She notes the yawning gap in cognitive warfare readiness as Iran deploys AI-generated disinformation at unprecedented scale. Baran raises the stakes by arguing Canada needs to get serious about energy sovereignty and that while Trump keeps score on who shows up to help and who doesn't, the NATO military alliance underpinning Canadian security for 76 years may be more fragile than Ottawa wants to admit. It`s time to make hard calls on Arctic sovereignty, energy infrastructure, and the information integrity that holds a democracy together.
S2 · E1
February 26 · 16 min
War in Ukraine: Canadian Support for Humanitarian Aid
This week marks four years since the most recent unprovoked attack on Ukraine by Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Ukrainians have been at war for 12 years and have spent the last four shedding blood, tears, and the stability they once enjoyed to defend the freedoms and values of their democracy. It was – and continues to be – a cruel and unjustified assault on a sovereign country. It goes against international law and defies human decency. This episode Pendulum host and co-founding partner, Heather Bakken, is joined by Valeriy Kostyuk, Executive Director of the Canada-Ukraine Foundation, and Pendulum co-founding partner, Yaroslav Baran. They discuss how Canadians have opened their hearts and their wallets to provide humanitarian assistance for Ukrainians while Putin pummels civilian infrastructure. Hear about what's at stake, who is impacted, and why it's in Canada's interest to prevent Moscow from winning its war of ethnocide.
S1 · E30
Dec 29, 2025 · 22 min
Canada`s Political Year in Review and What`s Ahead in 2026
Closing out season one on The Swing, Pendulum`s Yaroslav Baran and Heather Bakken discuss the political year that was: who`s up and who`s down, communications wins and losses, and what actually got done. The Liberals made the biggest comeback in Canada`s electoral history and the new prime minister rode the momentum through 2025. But electoral results aren't the only things that changed; Canadians stopped saying sorry and unapologetically rallied around the flag. Prime Minister Carney governed with an executive temperament, launched transformational institutions, reshaped defence spending, and projected steady competence on the world stage. Yet beneath it all is a razor-thin minority Parliament encumbered by legislative paralysis that set in far earlier than expected. The big question heading into 2026: can decisive leadership survive the grind of minority rule, economic headwinds, and an unforgiving electoral clock?
S1 · E29
Dec 13, 2025 · 25 min
Canada's Frozen Russian Assets
On this episode of The Swing, we dive into one of the most consequential, and least understood, aspects of the war in Ukraine: Russia’s frozen state assets. Roughly $300B USD were seized by the G7 and EU in 2022 and have been sitting in financial deep-freeze. The Belgian securities depository, Euroclear, manages 90% of these frozen assets — including Canada’s share. What happens next could decide whether this money is used to help Ukraine, or flows back into Vladimir Putin’s war chest. Joining Pendulum's Heather Bakken and Yaroslav Baran is Aaron Gasch Burnett, a security analyst at the European Resilience Initiative Centre based in Berlin. Aaron walks us through the geopolitics, legal battles, European financial mechanisms, and the role Canada can play through double-frozen assets. Yaroslav breaks down the Canadian political timing, the risks, and why this debate may be the most important financial front of the war.
S1 · E28
Nov 26, 2025 · 22 min
Ukraine's Untenable Choice
How do you clear a path for peace using a blueprint for capitulation? In this episode of The Swing, Pendulum's Heather Bakken, Yaroslav Baran and Balkan Devlen (also an internationally renowned geopolitical strategist) dissect the most contentious development in the Ukraine war since the full-scale invasion began: a leaked 28-point so-called “peace plan” reportedly penned in secret by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, U.S. President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Kremlin-linked businessman Kirill Dmitriev. Noticeably absent in the drafting of the plan — anyone from sovereign Ukraine. What does “peace” actually mean in international affairs with a global order struggling to define the difference between ending a war and legitimizing invasion? Baran and Devlen break down the plan’s territorial concessions, its hollowed-out security guarantees reminiscent of the failed Budapest Memorandum, and the strategic imbalance it would impose by restricting Ukraine’s armed forces while leaving Russia’s untouched. They also explore why Vladimir Putin might be entertaining talks at all, from mounting infrastructure losses under Ukrainian drone strikes to domestic strains Russians rarely see reported. One thing they all agree on is the current approach echoes the appeasement logic of the Munich Agreement with an outcome that nobody wants.
S1 · E27
Nov 18, 2025 · 12 min
Canada`s Final Confidence Vote on the Budget - Just How Close Was It?
Pendulum's Heather Bakken and Yaroslav Baran break down the narrow but decisive passage of Canada’s federal budget — a vote that hinged on the Green Party's unexpected support for the Liberals and the abstentions of some opposition MPs. Baran explains the political theatre and narrows in on parliamentary procedure to debunk speculation about the Speaker’s role with a clear walk-through of the Denison rule, which would have forced a vote against the budget had the numbers deadlocked. Zooming back out they provide a political assessment on why no party truly wanted an election: Liberals seeking stability while sitting just shy of a majority, Conservatives wrestling with internal turbulence and slipping momentum, the Bloc seeing low-risk upside, and the NDP effectively immobilized without a permanent leader. With the budget through the final confidence vote, Baran and Bakken outline what comes next: budget-implementation legislation, major defence and infrastructure spending, and a political landscape that, for now, settles into a fragile, functional calm ...until the Pendulum swings again.
S1 · E26
Oct 31, 2025 · 15 min
Canada's 2025 Budget Primer and Bathroom Break Maneuvers
Canada's long awaited budget will be tabled on November 4th. It's the first one in 18 months and will lay out the new Carney government's agenda from a dollars and cents perspective. What are the signals it will send to the markets? How does the process work? And what are the politics at play? Yaroslav and Heather discuss the play-by-play process, estimates, ways and means vote, implementation bills, and more. Sound complicated? Hear from the guy (aka Yaroslav) who used to help whip the vote on The Hill and can nerd out in plain language to help you understand how it all works. Headline spoiler: despite all the hoopla about a Christmas election, voters will probably be spared another trip to the polls by a few too many bathroom breaks. At least for now.
S1 · E25
Oct 25, 2025 · 24 min
Canada’s Indo-Pacific Pivot: Strategic Signals and Bilateral Motion
We’re unpacking Canada’s evolving Indo-Pacific strategy: what it means, where it’s headed and why it matters now more than ever. This week Yaroslav Baran is joined by two luminaries of foreign policy and trade with a particular expertise in the Asia-Pacific region: Vina Najibulla is Vice-President, Research & Strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada and Jonathan Berkshire Miller is Co-Founder & Principal at Pendulum Geopolitical Advisory. Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand has just completed a whirlwind tour of China, Singapore, and India—three countries chosen with clear intent. This marks the Carney government’s first major diplomatic engagement in Asia, signaling a strategic re-entry into a region that’s central to Canada’s long-term economic and geopolitical interests. So what is Canada trying to achieve? And is it working? Three key messages emerged from this tour: The Indo-Pacific remains a top priority—Canada is serious about diversifying its economic and security relationships beyond the U.S. and Europe. Diplomacy is shifting toward pragmatism, with engagement even in complex relationships like those with China and India. Economic resilience is front and center, with a renewed push to deepen commercial ties and reduce over-reliance on traditional partners. Minister Anand’s visit also laid the groundwork for Prime Minister Carney’s upcoming trip to Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea, where he’ll attend the ASEAN and APEC summits. This is a long-anticipated opportunity for Canada to articulate its regional priorities and engage in high-level bilateral meetings, including potential talks with China and key ASEAN partners. One of the most notable developments is Canada’s first-ever comprehensive economic partnership agreement with Indonesia—a major milestone in our ASEAN engagement. This deal includes non-tariff access for Canadian goods. Whether it’s in ASEAN, South Asia, or the broader Indo-Pacific, collaboration with India will be key to a truly connected and resilient strategy.
S1 · E24
Oct 17, 2025 · 14 min
A Glimpse Inside the Prime Minister's Office with Oz Jungic
After four years advising two Prime Ministers of Canada on foreign policy, Oz Jungic breaks his silence with Pendulum. Jungic is moving on to another role outside of the political sphere and sat down with host Yaroslav Baran to discuss how decisions are made at the Prime Minister's Office (PMO), how the decision to recognize Palestine came together, and the evolving NATO response to Russia’s war against Ukraine. And he drops some hints about where he's going next. Get the insider's inside scoop on The Swing.
S1 · E23
Oct 1, 2025 · 11 min
Reconciliation and Resources: Where Indigenous Rights Meet Canada's Quest for Development
As Canada doubles down on resource development and infrastructure through its new Major Projects Office (MPO) and Bill C-5 (An Act to Enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act) the constitutional Duty to Consult Indigenous Peoples is becoming a defining opportunity for the country’s economic future. Hosts Heather Bakken and Yaroslav Baran explore how the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation ties directly to political tensions around major development, and why Indigenous consultation is no longer just a legal formality but a litmus test for national credibility and investment certainty. This episode breaks down the legal foundations of the Duty to Consult, its evolution through Supreme Court rulings, and the growing expectation of securing Indigenous consent and partnership. Is Ottawa’s stated vision of Indigenous equity participation backed by meaningful engagement, or simply more staging? Tune in to find out.
S1 · E22
Sep 18, 2025 · 17 min
Canada's House Is Back In Session
The House is back! This week on The Swing, we examine Canada’s return to Parliament and the political tone-setting that will shape the months ahead. Parliamentary committees are structured groups of MPs drawn from all parties, designed to mirror the composition of the House. Yaroslav, a parliamentary procedural expert, explains how committees work and why they matter. Transport Minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigns from Cabinet to become Ottawa's special envoy to Ukraine. Beyond Canada, we look at Europe’s defense industrial strategies, where protectionism and supply chain diversification intersect. How would Canada integrate into the European defense procurement system? Is Albania going where angels fear to tread? Yes Minister. It is the first country in the world to appoint AI to a ministry. What does it have to do with Mary Shelley's Frankenstein or Goethe's The Sufferings of Young Werther? Tune in to find out.
S1 · E21
Sep 10, 2025 · 7 min
Canada's Parliament: What To Expect When The House Returns
This episode offers sharp insights into how Ottawa is preparing for its toughest test yet. Canada's lawmakers will be returning to the House next week in what promises to be a high-stakes fall sitting of Parliament. They will be welcomed by tariff shocks, fiscal pressure and a sharpened opposition. The audio briefing dives into: Machinery of government required for new marquee agencies like the Building Canada Homes initiative and the Major Projects Office. Canada’s new top bureaucrat, Michael Sabia, and what his no-nonsense style means for a faster, leaner public service. The re-entry of Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre to Question Period. Yaroslav Baran and Heather Bakken dissect Baran's latest opinion piece, 'A Fall of Contradictions, Focus and Discipline', in the Hill Times. Mark Carney's government will table a long-awaited budget that must reconcile a paradox: the need for fiscal restraint alongside investment imperatives. The prime minister has the ultimate balancing act with deep cost-cutting across government while simultaneously rolling out tens of billions in new spending from emergency bailouts for steel, aluminum, and canola to massive long-term defence investments aimed at meeting NATO’s spending target. For anyone tracking Canada’s domestic politics, trade wars with the U.S., or the shifting global order, this is a seven-minute investment you won't regret.
S1 · E20
Sep 4, 2025 · 18 min
Cabinet Conclave, Global Power Plays, and Canada’s Major Projects Push
This week on The Swing, Yaroslav Baran, Balkan Devlen, and host Heather Bakken unpack three pivotal developments shaping Canada’s political and economic trajectory. A Cabinet Planning Forum sets the stage for a high-stakes fall session and budget. The new Major Projects Office launches in Calgary to fast-track infrastructure and send a clear signal to Alberta’s energy sector. And China’s high-profile Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit reveals new alignments with global power blocs. How do these shifts redefine Canada’s role in the world, its economic resilience, and its political strategy at home? Tune in for an in-depth discussion.
S1 · E19
Aug 27, 2025 · 18 min
Canada Forging Long-term Strategic Alliances
Hop on The Swing to look at Canadian politics through a wider, global lens. This week, Yaroslav and Heather break down Prime Minister Mark Carney’s scrapping of U.S. tariffs, his surprise stop in Kyiv with nearly $2B in new aid for Ukraine, and a European tour cementing defence, trade, and NATO ties. Back home, Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre reclaimed a seat in Parliament with a byelection win. And from Hamilton, the curious case of a young Canadian crypto hacker who pulled off multi-million-dollar heists but is now on the lam.

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